meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE lenders chart a route to growth

10 April 2023

 

International markets may have been spooked by challenges in the global banking system that provide an eery reminder of past problems, but UAE lenders have little reason to fear that this year will interrupt the progress seen in 2022 as profits swelled on the back of an economy in recovery mode.  

Contagion fears may be misplaced. UAE banks had minimal exposure to the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank. Unlike Saudi Arabia and Qatar, there was no UAE exposure to Credit Suisse – the troubled Swiss lender swallowed up by its larger rival UBS last month.

Although UAE lending rates are not as vibrant as some of its neighbours, with nothing to rival the housing finance-linked boom in Saudi Arabia, the country’s banks have nonetheless shown some impressive performance metrics. Overall sector profits grew by 31 per cent in 2022, while assets grew by 10.6 per cent, according to figures collated by KPMG.

Profitability of the four largest lenders, First Abu Dhabi Bank (Fab), Emirates NBD, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) and Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB), which control almost three-quarters of the banking system, exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2022  – reflecting strong growth in interest income and normalised provisioning charges, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Leading the pack, Emirates NBD showed a 40 per cent profit growth to AED13bn ($3.5bn), helped by a notably strong fourth-quarter performance that saw profits up by 94 per cent in year-on-year terms to AED3.9bn ($1.06bn) amid improving margins and a lower cost of risk.

DIB, the other Dubai lender of the big four UAE lenders, reported net profits up 26 per cent to AED5.5bn ($1.5bn), while ADCB reported a 23 per cent increase to AED6.4bn ($1.74bn). Fab, the UAE’s largest lender, had a more modest 7 per cent increase in net profits to AED13.4bn ($3.65bn).

Stabilising fundamentals

Banks can be confident that the prime source of their impressive profitability is unlikely to fade this year, given the global interest rate cycle. This continues last year’s picture. Net interest margins (NIMs) for UAE-listed banks grew 26 basis points (bps) in the fourth quarter of 2022, reaching 3 per cent for the first time, according to Kamco Invest Research.

“The interest rate environment reversed in 2022, driving aggregate growth of 28 per cent in the banks’ net interest income,” says Nitish Bhojnagarwala, senior credit officer at Moody’s.

“The growth reflected increasing asset yields, driven by rising interest rates, which more than offset higher funding costs.”

While the banks’ funding costs have increased, says Bhojnagarwala, they did not do so at the same rate, reflecting efforts to optimise their deposit mix and achieve strong zero or low-cost current and savings account balances, supporting margin growth.

NIMs should remain strong this year, not least given the continued cycle of rate rises emanating from the US Federal Reserve, which the UAE Central Bank tracks. The latter hiked its base rate by 25 bps to 5.5 per cent in March after the Fed hiked its base rate by a quarter per cent.

Some UAE lenders have also flagged priorities beyond fattening the bottom line. DIB said that given the rate environment and surplus liquidity, it had made a deliberate tactical move to support large corporate and public sector entities in adjusting and aligning their balance sheet in the new medium-term environment.

Elevated provisioning

Despite the strong conditions for profit growth, UAE banks will have a conservative strain in their approach to 2023, conscious of still elevated non-performing loan (NPL) ratios.

The big four banks’ NPL ratio declined to 5.3 per cent as of December 2022 from 5.9 per cent a year earlier.

“It remains high relative to the Gulf Cooperation Council region owing to the slower write-off policy of the UAE banks,” says Bhojnagarwala.

Coverage ratios have increased for the big four banks, standing at 100 per cent at year-end 2022, from 80 per cent a year earlier. Dubai’s ENDB was the standout bank here, with a coverage ratio of 145 per cent.

This reflects a broader tendency among banks to book higher provisions, with Dubai’s largest bank increasing absolute provisions in the fourth quarter of 2022 by $142.4m, reaching $517.9m.

Overall provisions booked by UAE-listed banks showed the biggest quarter-on-quarter percentage increase in the GCC of 40.2 per cent in the last quarter of 2022 to reach $1.23bn, says Kamco.

Moody’s anticipates loan loss provisions to stabilise at the current, pre-pandemic level and banks’ NPL ratio to improve modestly, driving higher coverage over the next 12-18 months.

“When we look at overall loan loss provisioning, it has fallen for two of the largest four banks, but in terms of cost of risk, fell by a collective 0.8 per cent from 1 per cent in 2021 and is now in line with pre-pandemic levels,” says Bhojnagarwala.

Evidence of faster payment settlements will bolster confidence levels among banks that credit losses will not rise this year. That may, in turn, afford more scope for lenders to scale back on provisioning at some point in the future.

Near future risk

Despite the improving conditions, analysts caution about potential economic headwinds.

Ratings agency S&P Global issued a warning earlier this year that real GDP growth could ease in 2023 and that the slowing of the non-oil sector will lower demand for credit. It sees the UAE property sector, which experienced strong demand in 2022 on the residential side, witnessing a moderation in price and rental increases this year.

UAE banks may need to countenance the prospect of higher problem loans in sectors such as construction and trade, as well as for some small and midsize enterprises. The latter is starting to feel the impact of more expensive credit in light of the higher interest rates.

Taken in context, this is unlikely to ruffle the Central Bank’s feathers. The country’s mix of elevated provisioning and strong profit performances suggest UAE banks will be suitably positioned to overcome such hurdles. And with healthy provisioning levels factored into the equation, the feeling remains that this year will continue the recovery record started in 2022.

This month's special report on the UAE also includes: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10744976/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • An audience with Diriyah: The $63bn gigaproject opportunity

    16 April 2024

    Register now

    Hear first-hand from Diriyah Company about one of the world's most iconic projects and how your company can participate in its existing and future procurement opportunities.

    This exclusive event will provide a detailed outlook into Diriyah’s development plans and the transformation of ‘The City of Earth’ under the Saudi 2030 Vision.

    Gain key insights into available future procurement opportunities, how to work with Diriyah Company on its extensive project pipeline, and how to register and prequalify to participate in it.

    Agenda:

    1. The Saudi Arabia projects market in context – size, key projects, trends and future outlook

    2. A detailed overview of the Diriyah gigaproject, its masterplan, progress and the more than $10.5bn-worth of construction work awarded to date

    3. Key details of the $50bn+ projects pipeline including specific procurement opportunities, future materials and equipment demand, and how companies can register and help deliver the iconic giga development

    4. An in-depth discussion with Diriyah Company on its requirements, vendor registration and procurement processes, and contracting frameworks

    5. A live Q&A session where you will have the opportunity to ask questions directly to Diriyah Company

    Time: Monday 22 April at 02:00 PM GST

    Hosted by: Edward James, head of content and analysis at MEED

    A well-known and respected thought leader in Mena affairs, Edward James has been with MEED for more than 19 years, working as a researcher, consultant and content director. Today he heads up all content and research produced by the MEED group. His specific areas of expertise are construction, hydrocarbons, power and water, and the petrochemical market. He is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Mena projects market.
     

    Speakers:

    Andrew Tonner, chief delivery officer, Diriyah Company

    Andrew Tonner is the chief delivery officer at Diriyah Company, with 35+ years of property development and construction experience.   One of the first arrivals to the Diriyah Project in 2019, Andrew is now into his second spell with the company. He is currently responsible for construction delivery across 4 masterplans with a combined value of c $62 bn covering 75 km2. See more

    Mohamed Thabet, commercial executive director, design and development, Diriyah Company

    Mohamed Thabet serves as the executive director of DevCo's commercial team. With a background in architecture and advanced studies in construction law, Mohamed brings a wealth of experience in managing complex construction contracts. His career spans roles in engineering, management firms and development, providing him with a comprehensive understanding of the construction industry supply chain. See more

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11687525/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • PIF and Acwa Power take next solar round

    16 April 2024

    Saudi utility developer Acwa Power and Public Investment Fund (PIF) are now discussing the fourth round of the renewable energy programme being implemented by the Saudi sovereign vehicle.

    "We are now looking at the next round," Marco Arcelli, Acwa Power chief executive, tells MEED on the sidelines of the ongoing World Future Energy Summit (WFES) in Abu Dhabi.

    He declined to comment on the outage of one of its concentrated solar power (CSP) plants in Morocco, which is expected to result in $47m of lost revenue for the compoany.

    MEED previously reported that the company is working towards reaching financial close for three solar photovoltaic schemes with a a total combined capacity of 4,550MW, as part of Saudi Arabia's National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP).

    In February, Acwa Power said the schemes "have satisfied the conditions precedent for senior loans drawdown".

    The next round under discussion between Acwa Power and PIF is understood to have a similar capacity as the third round.

    The Riyadh-headquartered utility developer and its partner, Water & Electricity Holding Company (Badeel), signed the power-purchase agreements with Saudi Power Procurement Company to develop and operate the three projects in May last year.

    The three projects, located in the central and northern regions of Saudi Arabia, are:

    • Al Rass 2: 2,000MW
    • Saad 2: 1,125MW
    • Al Kahfah: 1,425MW

    The projects are estimated to cost a combined SR12.8bn ($3.4bn).

    According to Acwa Power's recent bourse filing, the banks that agreed to provide senior debt financing of SR8.6bn ($2.3bn) for the projects include:

    • Banque Saudi Fransi (local)
    • HSBC (UK)
    • Mizuho Bank (Japan)
    • Riyad Bank (local)
    • Saudi Awwal Bank (local)
    • Saudi National Bank (local)
    • Standard Chartered Bank (UK)

    The financing duration is 27.75 years. The project debt financing amount is non-recourse to Acwa Power, which owns a 50.1% equity in the three projects.

    Its partner, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) subsidiary Badeel, owns the remaining 49.9% equity in the projects.

    MEED reported in June 2023 that the developer team expected to have the financing in place for the projects by last year.

    The three projects take the number of solar PV contracts awarded by the PIF under the kingdom’s National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP) to five.

    It awarded contracts for developing the 1,500MW Sudair solar PV in 2021 and the 2,060MW Shuaibah 2 solar PV in 2022.

    PIF is mandated to procure 70% of the NREP’s target capacity through the kingdom's Price Discovery Scheme.

    The PIF also owns 44% of Acwa Power.

    Based on MEED data, the three projects take the total number of solar PV contracts developed by an Acwa Power-led team in Saudi Arabia to 10. These projects have a total combined capacity of 10GW.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11686486/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Etihad to decide Ghalilah 1 IWP capacity

    16 April 2024

    The planned Ghalilah 1 independent water project (IWP) in Ras Al Khaimah could have a capacity that ranges between 30 and 90 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD), according to Yusuf Al Ali, chief executive at Etihad Water & Electricity (Etihad WE), tells MEED.

    "The final capacity will be decided based on the studies being conducted and the demand growth trend," Al Ali told MEED. 

    Etihad WE recently invited qualified firms to submit proposals for a contract to undertake a technical consultancy service for Ghalilah 1 IWP.

    It expects to receive bids for the contract on 25 April.

    According to Etihad WE, the tenderer "must be a UAE national, individual or a company owned by nationals or a company in which 51% of the share capital is owned by nationals; a free zone company or branches of GCC and foreign companies having a local offices in the UAE".

    There is an existing seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plant in Ghalilah, which became operational in 2015. 

    US-based Aquatech constructed the SWRO plant in Ghalilah, which has a water production capacity of 15 million Imperial gallons a day (MIGD).

    Formerly Federal Electricity and Water Authority (Fewa), Etihad WE maintains at least three water desalination plants that are all on reverse osmosis technology.

    The other plants are located in Naqaa, the UAE northern region's first IWP with a capacity of 150MIGD, and Zawrah.

    Etihad WE is understood to have invested over AED2bn in recent years to enhance its transmission and storage capabilities, notably through projects like the Khuraijah water distribution centre (WDC), which has a capacity of 180 million gallons.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11686319/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • EGA and Masdar to sign deal

    16 April 2024

    The UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) 16 April to collaborate on decarbonising EGA's overseas operations.

    Abdulnasser Bin Kalban, EGA chief executive, made the statement during ongoing World Future Energy Summit (WFES) in Abu Dhabi on 16 April.

    The executive said the challenges and initiatives involved in decarbonising its operations, including tapping partners like Masdar and new potential technologies such as hydrogen going forward.

    "We are looking for suitable partners to meet our decarbonisation target. In terms of technologies, we are looking at opitmising our gas generation plants, and pursuing renewable energy. In 10 years time we believe hydrogen will be available and at the right cost," Bin Kalban said. 

    Aluminium and steel production are carbon-intensive and considered hard-to-abate sectors.

    In 2021, EGA launched Celestial, a product range that is manufactured using solar-based electricity.

    German carmaker BMW became the first customer to sign up for Celestial aluminium. EGA will supply 43,000 tonnes of Celestial aluminium to BMW Group annually, which reduces BMW Group’s emissions by approximately 222,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.

    In March this year, EGA announced that it had signed a binding sale and purchase agreement to acquire the German aluminium recycling firm Leichtmetall Aluminium Giesserei Hannover.

    Leichtmetall is a European specialty foundry, with production including hard alloys and larger diameter billets with high proportions of secondary aluminium.

    Leichtmetall uses renewable energy at its plant in Hannover to produce up to 30,000 tonnes a year of aluminium billets, with secondary aluminium as some 80% of input material.

    The company uses proprietary inductive melting technology, liquid metal treatment and casting processes to produce aluminium products from scrap metal.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11686264/main.jpg
  • Summit opens with promise to keep Cop28 commitment

    16 April 2024

    Sheikha Shamma Bint Sultan Bin Khalifa Al Nahyan, president and chief executive of the UAE Independent Climate Change Accelerators, has stressed the need for blended finance to meet the investment requirements for meeting the 1.5-degree-Celcius climate target alive.

    Al Nahyan made the statement on the opening day of the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi.

    "Blended finance can be unlocked if various stakeholders, including governments and private sector investors, agree to collaborate… and try novel financing ideas," Al Nahyan said.

    Various research agencies have highlighted the need for trillions of dollars on investments particulary in clean energy systems to keep the 1.5-degree-Celcius target alive.

    It is the first WFES summit since close to 150 countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels at Cop28 in December.

    Al Nahyan cited the other landmark agreeements signed during the Cop28 summit including tripling the renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency globally by 2030.

    Heavy rain amid adverse weather conditions in the UAE served as a backdrop to the opening day of the WFES summit this year.

    Related read: Cop28 keeps 1.5°C goal within reach

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11685840/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo