Pursuit of political stability dominates Maghreb
11 July 2025

Across the Maghreb, amid a range of external and internal pressures, the pursuit of political stability is emerging as the overarching preoccupation for governments as they compete for trade, growth and investor interest.
Wracked by drought, years of disruption due to Covid-19 and the impact of the war in Ukraine on grain prices, and now facing the boot of arbitrary US tariffs, the economies of the region need certainty more than anything.
With fast-growing populations, all of the Maghreb countries face serious challenges in maintaining sufficient job creation to cater to their youth, and with local spending constraints, attracting foreign investment is key.
None of the Maghreb countries seem to understand this better than Morocco, which has been rolling out what might be described as a GCC-style vision for the country. Most recently, in September 2024, it launched the Digital Morocco 2030 strategy to use artificial intelligence to improve access to services in rural and underserved areas.
Such initiatives are central to Morocco’s broader New Development Model (NDM) strategy, first laid out in 2021 and recognised by bodies such as the Washington-based IMF as a key driver of economic transformation in the country. Key indicators for the NDM include doubling the country’s GDP per capita to $16,000 by 2035, doubling the rate of women in the workforce, raising renewables to 40% of total energy consumption and developing the digital sector to account for 5% of GDP.
Rabat is also widening the country’s social security net, having expanded family allowances in 2023, and with plans to expand old-age pensions and unemployment benefits in 2025. The government is also improving access to services for Amazigh speakers in answer to loud political calls since the 2016-17 Amazigh-led Hirak Rif movement protests.
From creating jobs to supporting vulnerable groups and minorities, the common thread in Rabat’s domestic policy is expediting measures to address emerging risks to social and political stability at source.
Externally, Morocco has meanwhile intensified its diplomatic campaign for international recognition of its semi-autonomy plan for Western Sahara. First proposed in 2007, the scheme initially received little traction, but the situation changed significantly in 2020 with then US President Donald Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory as part of a deal to normalise ties with Israel. In 2022, Spain also shifted its stance to one of support for Rabat’s autonomy plan, followed by France in early 2024 and by the UK in June 2025 – each country for their own reasons.
The fresh support is a diplomatic sea change for Morocco after 30 years of across-the-board rejection of its claims to the territory and calls for Sahrawi self-determination. It also boosts Rabat’s effort to secure more foreign direct investment (FDI) into Western Sahara and local projects, such as the Morocco-UK XLinks energy initiative.
For Madrid, the recognition also resolves a point of contention between the two neighbours, particularly ahead of the pending co-hosting of the 2030 Fifa World Cup by Morocco, Spain and Portugal.
Advances in Algiers
Across the border in Algeria, the wheels of legislative change have also been slowly turning, with new hydrocarbons and investment laws, accompanied by the lifting of some restrictions on foreign ownership, raising the possibility of boosting inbound FDI.
The government is also emphasising private sector-led growth and the rationalising of public spending, as well as initiatives to improve the business environment by reforming public banks and state-owned enterprises.
President Abdelmadjid Tebboune secured his re-election for a second term in September 2024 with the support of 84.3% of the vote, in a reassuring referendum on the political stability of the country’s post-Bouteflika political order.
Although the country’s politics remain marred by the suppression of the opposition, the broader shake-up in government is reflected in the ongoing reforms and demonstrates the country’s political awareness of the need to deliver.
In a mirror image of Morocco’s diplomatic journey, Algiers has worsening foreign relations with Paris and Madrid due to its staunch opposition to the Western recognition of Moroccan claims to the Western Sahara region.
In May 2025, Algeria expelled 15 French diplomatic agents, citing their “irregular positions” on the geopolitical issue. The incident matched similarly negative responses by Algeria to Spain in 2022.
Trouble in Tripoli
Libya remains deeply mired in the political deadlock between its two administrations – even as the years of rivalry between the administration has made it clear to all involved of the need for reunification for the stability of the country.
Talks to establish a unified interim government and hold national elections have stalled over the past year, however, with armed clashes between rival militias in Tripoli in May 2025 only reaffirming the precarious state of affairs in the country.
The UN remains central to Libya’s peace process, and in early 2025, the UN appointed Hanna Tetteh as the Special Representative for Libya, while a 20-member Libyan Advisory Committee was established to address contentions over the proposed electoral process.
In May, the committee then outlined some potential solutions, but political consensus remains elusive, leaving little near-term hope for a resolution to the situation in the country.
Turbulence in Tunisia
Tunisia, meanwhile, faces issues stemming largely from political instability inflicted upon it under President Kais Saied, who has ruled by decree since dissolving the country’s parliament in 2021. In March 2025, Saied dismissed his third prime minister in less than two years and appointed Sara Zaafarani in their place.
Saied was re-elected in an October 2024 election with over 90% of the vote, but the process was marred by both low turnout and the arrest of several opposition figures.
Tunis, under Saied’s leadership, is the exception to the rule amid the Maghreb's pursuit of greater political stability. One rare area of success for the president has been in extracting financial support out of the EU in exchange for curbing trans-Mediterranean migration routes emanating from Tunisia.
More broadly, however, Tunisia’s deepening economic challenges, low growth and deteriorating public services under the watch of Saied’s autocratic political experiment serve to underline how the region’s most viable route to economic prosperity remains through providing the kind of political stability in which investors can trust.
The region’s need for trade and growth-boosting policies will only be emphasised from 1 August, when Trump’s pledge for tariffs of 30% on Algeria and Libya, 25% on Tunisia and 20% on Morocco comes due.
While the US only reflects a small fraction of the outbound trade of each of these countries, further dents to growth are something that the region can ill-afford. Here, too, political stability may be key in enabling the respective powers that be to make diplomatic overtures compelling enough to entice Trump to back down.
MEED’s August 2025 report on the Maghreb also includes:
> ECONOMY: Maghreb economies battle trading headwinds
> LIBYA OIL: Oil company interest in Libya increases
> ALGERIA INDUSTRY: Algeria’s industrial strategy builds momentum
> POWER & WATER: Slow year for Maghreb power and water awards
> CONSTRUCTION: World Cup 2030 galvanises Morocco construction
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Accor expects Dubai hotel recovery by mid-202717 July 2026

Paris-headquartered hotel operator Accor expects Dubai’s hotel market to return to pre-conflict occupancy levels by the end of the first quarter or early second quarter of 2027, with room rates lagging the volume recovery by several months.
Duncan O’Rourke, chief executive for the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific at the hotel operator (pictured right), said the group had maintained profitability across its Dubai portfolio during the conflict period through cost control and revenue management, but acknowledged that rates and occupancy had fallen materially from January and February levels.“There is no question that this crisis affected Dubai,” O’Rourke said at a media briefing in Dubai on 26 June. “As for occupancy in Dubai, we managed – through profit protection and cost control – to keep the hotels in a positive position, so we weren’t losing money.”
He said the arrival of the summer low season provided a degree of relief. “If there is a time to slowly slide out of this crisis, it is the right time, which is now. What I see going forward is that volumes will come back. You will not have the rates immediately that you had in January and February. By the end of Q1 or Q2 next year, I think you will get close to where we were.”
Luxury first
O’Rourke said the luxury and upper-upscale segment was likely to lead the recovery, consistent with the pattern observed after previous crises.
“Generally, when you have a crisis, the first segment to click back quicker is the high-end luxury. People then think: it is not about whether I should go – it is, let’s go. We saw that in Covid. Fairmont is well positioned to do that, and the Sofitel and Maison brands are in the stage of recovery going forward.”
Jean-Jacques Morin, group deputy chief executive at Accor (pictured right), said the UAE’s underperformance had been contained within Accor’s broader international portfolio that continued to grow.“The Middle East is about 10% of the network,” he said. “That also explains why my tone on the capability of the results is so positive – not only do you have the hedging across geographies, but it is also, in the end, only one part of the business.”
Rate outlook
Morin dismissed concerns that the conflict had structurally weakened Dubai’s pricing power, drawing a parallel with the period following Covid-19.
“When we came out of Covid, everybody said those prices would never hold. The question at every analyst call was always the same: your pricing strategy is unsustainable. Guess what? Nothing changed. The prices now, three or four years later, are still the same.”
He argued that consumers consistently prioritise travel expenditure when reallocating budgets. “What you see when the economy goes sideways is that people reallocate disposable income differently. People are basically redirecting the way they do things and keeping the same amount they want to spend, but spending it differently.”
Morin also said Dubai has a track record of outpacing expectations after previous disruptions. “The first part of the world, post-Covid, that came back to positive RevPAR was the Middle East – it was Dubai. People forget that. The capacity of this part of the world to rebound, and the capacity of the industry to rebound in general, is always misunderstood.”
No pullback
Accor said it had not paused or cancelled any development commitments in the region as a result of the conflict. “We did not change anything from a strategic perspective,” Morin said. “The last thing you want is to pull back, because this is going to rebound.”
The group has also used the period to accelerate planned refurbishments and redeploy staff across the region rather than reduce headcount.
“We have 380 hotels here – we are the largest player in the Middle East. Where we accelerated refurbishments, we were able to take key employees and move them to larger hotels elsewhere in the region. What people learned during Covid was the cost of layoffs afterwards – bringing people back and retraining them. There was a massive learning curve. This time, discussions with partners about layoffs were less challenging; it was more about accommodating staffing needs during that period,” O’Rourke said.
READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFStress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AIRPORTS: Dubai and Riyadh reaffirm airport ambitions> INDUSTRY REPORT: Dubai eyes tourism sector recovery> DATA CENTRES: Big Tech falls short on data centre promise> LEADERSHIP: Aramco’s citizen developers accelerate digital changeTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17695301/main.gif -
CCC selected for $600m Damascus Financial Centre17 July 2026
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Syrian developer Souria Holding has selected Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) as the exclusive design-and-build contractor for the $600m Damascus Financial Centre (DFC) in Syria.
The two parties signed a memorandum of understanding on 6 July. The agreement covers design management, engineering, procurement, construction, testing and commissioning, handover and defects liability services. Souria Holding chairman Haytham Joud and CCC chairman Samer Khoury signed the agreement.
Souria Holding is developing the project in partnership with the Governorate of Damascus. The developer says the scheme is intended to support the city's long-term economic revitalisation and urban development.
The mixed-use development sits on Plot 47 in the Western Hejaz regulatory area of Damascus' Baramkeh district. The site covers about 32,000 square metres (sq m) and the development will have about 380,000 sq m of built-up area, making it one of the largest mixed-use schemes planned in Syria.
The DFC comprises a five-star hotel, including furnished apartments and serviced apartments; two residential towers; three grade-A office towers on a core-and-shell basis; retail and commercial space at ground and underground levels; and four basement levels for parking and supporting infrastructure.
The first phase of construction involves the delivery of three office buildings with a total above-ground built-up area of 72,000 sq m. The completion deadline is the fourth quarter of 2028.
Lebanon’s Dar Al-Handasah is the frontrunner for the design consultancy role, working for CCC as the design-and-build contractor.
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GCC downstream operators urged to seek used European equipment17 July 2026

The operators of downstream oil and gas facilities in the GCC that are rebuilding after attacks during the regional war are being advised by the insurance industry to procure used equipment from Europe, where a large number of petrochemical facilities have closed down over recent years.
A wide range of refineries and petrochemical plants in the region are currently undertaking repairs and replacing damaged equipment after attacks by Iran.
The attacks started after the US and Israel launched attacks on sites in Iran on 28 February.
Nick Holland, the head of engineering for India, the Middle East and Africa at the US-based insurance broker Marsh, says that many downstream facilities carrying out repairs in the GCC could cut costs and reduce the time it takes to rebuild by making deals with companies in Europe.
“Many plants have shut down in Europe over the past five years,” he says. “These refinery and chemical-plant closures may create an opportunity for Gulf operators to acquire high-quality used equipment.
“We have some incredible demand in the Middle East to recover as quickly as possible, and I would certainly be encouraging operators to take the opportunity to procure second-hand equipment from facilities that have closed down in Europe.”
Earlier this month, Jim Ratcliffe, the chairman of the London-headquartered chemicals company Ineos, wrote an open letter to Ursula Von Der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, saying that the chemical industry in Europe is “highly stressed” and in the midst of a “closure phase”.
He said that nearly 200 European chemical plants had closed down during the past five years.
Holland says that companies in the GCC looking to minimise business disruption and rebuild as quickly as possible should reach out to companies in Europe to obtain equipment that would normally take a long time to procure from equipment manufacturers.
“A new large high-pressure reactor could have a lead time of approximately 110 weeks, so adapting an existing reactor could significantly accelerate recovery,” he says.
“Other possible items include pumps, compressors, rotating equipment and boilers.
“Reusing equipment is unusual but not unprecedented. Used equipment would require inspection, remaining-life assessment, re-engineering and confirmation that it is fit for the new operating conditions.”
Over recent months, there have been reports of downstream oil facilities being hit by Iranian attacks in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE and Bahrain.
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Medina tenders Quba Mosque expansion17 July 2026

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Madinah Region Development Authority (MRDA) has tendered a contract to expand Quba Mosque in the Medina region of Saudi Arabia.
The tender was issued earlier this month, with a bid submission deadline of 31 August.
MRDA has appointed local consulting firm Jasara as the project management consultant.
Jasara, in turn, has appointed London-based firm HKA to provide specialist procurement and delivery-model advice and to support the selection of a suitable contracting partner for the project.
Dar Al-Omran has prepared the design for the expansion.
Quba Mosque is located about five kilometres south of the Prophet’s Mosque in Medina.
Project background
Quba Mosque is considered the first mosque established in Islam, in 622 AD. The proposed expansion will increase the mosque’s area from 5,035 square metres (sq m) to 53,000 sq m and raise capacity to 66,000 worshippers, from 12,000.
The expansion will also include the restoration of 57 historical sites and the creation of three pathways to enhance Medina’s spiritual and cultural landscape.
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Bahrain taps consultants for studying use of nuclear power17 July 2026

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Bahrain is exploring the use of nuclear power for domestic consumption as well as for potential export of surplus, with state energy conglomerate Bapco Energies tasked with studying the prospect of building a modular nuclear power plant.
According to sources, the proposed project is being led by BeVentures, the venture capital arm of Bapco Energies, which was launched in July 2024.
Under the plan being studied, power to be produced by the nuclear facility will be supplied mainly to major industrial complexes in the kingdom, such as Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) and Bapco Refining, for clean production of aluminium and refined products, respectively, in line with Bahrain’s ambition of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060.
BeVentures has, in turn, approached global consultancy firms such as Bechtel, Fluor, Kent, Technip Energies and Wood to assist with concept study and early-stage planning and assessment of the modular or small nuclear power project.
Bapco Energies and BeVentures are also considering tapping into private financing and/or equity partnerships, in part or in full, for the proposed project, sources told MEED.
Bapco Energies did not respond to MEED’s request for comment and additional information on the proposed modular nuclear project.
Mark Thomas, the group CEO of Bapco Energies, told MEED in an interview in April last year that BeVentures was considering investments in “ … new technologies that can both help existing business, as well as prepare … for the future, for the energy transition”.
“We’re looking at opportunities principally within our existing businesses around oil and gas production, refining and petrochemicals. But we’re also looking at elements that will prepare us for the future, more into renewables,” Thomas said, without explicitly mentioning nuclear power.
Case for nuclear power
Bahrain’s interest in exploring nuclear power has been driven primarily by the limitations of its hydrocarbon endowment. Given its small territorial size – about 786 square kilometres – Bahrain holds relatively modest hydrocarbon reserves compared with its Gulf peers.
The kingdom produces about 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil, of which the Awali Field, also known as the Bahrain Field, contributes approximately 42,400 b/d.
Most of Bahrain’s crude production – about 145,000 b/d – comes from the offshore Abu Safah field, located in Gulf waters between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and shared between Bapco Energies’ subsidiary Bapco Upstream and Saudi Aramco.
Bapco Energies has long pursued additional resources to boost oil and gas output. However, the discovery of the Khalij Al-Bahrain basin in 2018 – its biggest find in decades – has yet to live up to its promise. Initially estimated to hold 80 billion barrels of oil and 10-20 trillion cubic feet of gas, the find has not translated into production at the anticipated scale. Other, smaller exploration efforts with foreign players have also yet to yield the desired results.
The kingdom therefore remains heavily reliant on its larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia, for oil and gas supplies, importing about 350,000 b/d from Aramco via the AB-4 pipeline.
At the same time, given its environmental sustainability targets, other forms of renewable energy – mainly solar – are unlikely on their own to enable Bahrain to reach net zero by 2060.
Bapco Energies published emissions-reduction targets in July 2023, in one of the most detailed disclosures by any state energy enterprise in the GCC. It has also engaged advisers including Boston Consulting Group to help devise a strategy to meet its environmental goals, and Standard Chartered to support financing requirements.
Using 2017 as a baseline year, Bapco Energies has committed to reducing absolute Scope 3 emissions in Bahrain by 30% by 2035, and to reaching net-zero Scope 3 emissions by 2060.
In addition, Bapco Energies sets out net emissions-intensity reduction targets for Scope 1 and 2 – also using 2017 as a baseline – of 15% by 2025, 25% by 2030, 30% by 2035, 50% by 2040 and 75% by 2050, with the aim of achieving net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2060.
Bahrain has been laying the groundwork to enable it to tap nuclear power for household and industrial needs in the future.
The kingdom is already operating under a Country Programme Framework (2024–29) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which establishes regulatory and safety benchmarks that must be in place before any commercial reactor construction begins.
In July last year, Manama also signed a civilian nuclear cooperation memorandum of understanding with the US. Financed under the US Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technology (FIRST) programme, the partnership provides Bahrain with technical support to develop secure, weaponisation-free civil nuclear infrastructure.
Small modular reactor (SMR) technology could be the most viable pathway forward for Bapco Energies in its quest to develop domestic nuclear power. Unlike conventional large-scale, capital-intensive gigawatt reactors, SMR units – typically under 300MW – require only a fraction of the land area needed for solar capacity of an equivalent output.
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