UAE banks seize the moment

11 April 2024

 

After a surge in profits in 2023, UAE lenders have a positive outlook for this year. Strong capital buffers are expected to move even higher, while robust liquidity conditions provide a solid base for growing loan books.

The UAE economy’s revival, meanwhile, continues. That will support lenders’ loan quality, with borrowers’ ability to repay loans steadily improving – albeit from a high level of problem loans, which account for an estimated 4-5% of total loans.

The key factor in borrowers’ improved repayment ability is the UAE’s impressive non-oil performance, which has resulted in diminishing corporate problem loans.

With legacy Covid-era challenges now substantially reduced for the UAE private sector, banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have declined across the board.

Exposure to the property sector, considered a strategic vulnerability for lenders, is not proving problematic. Those developers with indebtedness issues are in the process of settling those.

For example, in December 2023, Dubai-based developer Union Properties announced an AED875m ($238.3m) debt repayment to a local lender, as part of a restructuring of its loans.

According to Moody’s Investors Service, the UAE banks’ coverage ratio, defined as loan-loss reserves as a proportion of problem loans, reached 103% in 2023 – meaning the existing stock of property-related loans is now fully covered.

The ratings agency said this level is comparable to other highly rated GCC banking systems, providing a healthy extra layer of protection to core equity against expected losses and strengthening total loss absorption capacity. 

However, there is a limit to the level at which NPLs will decline because of large legacy exposures and large restructurings emanating from previous cycles, where there was volatility in the non-oil space.

Last year, non-oil growth in the UAE was around 5%. That drove greater, repayment capacity from borrowers, which was very visible in the headline NPL ratios of the banks that pretty much declined on average, says Badis Shubailat, a bank analyst at Moody’s Investors Service.

“Still, there is some form of floor level to this decline because of the legacy exposures, and large restructurings that emanated from the previous credit cycles, during which we saw volatility in the non-oil space.”

This structural feature keeps the UAE at a disadvantage from a comparison standpoint to the other markets regarding asset quality indicators.

The broader profit picture in the UAE underscores the benign conditions confronting banks. The combined net income of all UAE banks increased by 54.1% in year-on-year terms in 2023, to AED76.9bn ($20.9bn).

High interest rates and supportive operating conditions ensured that asset yields (at 6.0% according to Moody’s) outpaced the cost of funding (3.7%). Banks managed to preserve low-cost current and savings accounts (CASA) and supported wider margins at 2.6% (compared to 2.2% in 2022). 

Profit boost

Results from the largest UAE lenders show a massive profitability boost last year. The country’s largest lender by assets, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), saw 2023 net profit reach $4.5bn, an increase of 56% on an underlying basis compared to 2022.

Total assets increased 5% to $318bn. Dubai’s largest bank, Emirates NBD, reported a 65% increase in profit last year to AED21.5bn ($5.9bn), with a 16% increase in its asset base propelled by strong CASA increases.

According to Moody’s, the four largest banks – FAB, ENBD, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Dubai Islamic Bank, which together accounted for around 74% of total UAE banking assets as of December 2023 – reported a combined net profit of $14.3bn in 2023, up from $9.6bn in 2022.

Analysts expect sustained profitability in 2024, given widening net interest margins and improving credit growth. Even anticipated interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve are unlikely to hit UAE banks hard, especially as these are only due to kick in in the second half of this year. Moreover, any interest rate reductions will likely be gradual. 

These improving metrics prompted Moody’s in mid-March to change the outlook for the UAE banking sector in 2024 to positive from stable.

The profitability improvement will also support banks’ capital ratios. Fitch Ratings expects the average CET1 ratio (post-dividend payments) to remain in the 13.5%–14% range, as the impact of lending growth will be broadly compensated by internal capital generation. Operating profits provide a solid cushion against any increase in the cost of risk, said the ratings agency.

That UAE banks are mainly funded by low-cost CASA deposits – considered ‘sticky’ – is a positive for the sector’s liquidity position. Last year, noted Moody’s, customer deposits made up 78% of UAE banks’ funding base. In contrast, the reliance on market funding is a moderate 17.7% of tangible banking assets.

Funding positions are supported by higher deposits from government-related entities (GREs), whose revenue performance has been sufficiently strong to allow them to deleverage to a greater degree.

Last year’s aggregate deposit performances from the top 10 banks, as reported by consultancy Alvarez and Marsal, showed that deposits grew 13.4% in 2023, while aggregate loans and advances increased by only 9%. Consequently, the loan-to-deposit ratio for these banks slipped 3.1 percentage points to 74.9%.

Some banks’ bottom lines face challenges. In March of this year, Dubai announced a 20% annual tax on foreign banks operating there, excluding those based in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). However, the Dubai authorities said the corporate tax rate will be deducted from the annual tax that foreign banks pay.

Volatile sectors

There remain vulnerabilities related to the construction and contracting sectors, which Moody’s notes are more volatile. It expects pockets of risks in the small- to medium-sized business segments because of high interest rates, particularly for smaller banks.

Exposure to foreign economies such as Turkiye and Egypt is more of a risk for the larger UAE banks.

“There is a foreign exposure story with large UAE banks, mainly in markets that have strong trade ties with the region, namely Egypt and Turkiye,” says Shubailat. “Those open avenues for growth and profitability diversification, but also present relatively less benign and more challenging environments.”

Such risks should easily be absorbed in the grand scheme of things. With overall conditions remaining supportive and healthy profits being generated, the UAE’s banks will look to expand loan books and capture the full growth potential of a vibrant domestic market.


The latest news and analysis on the UAE includes:

Non-oil activity underpins UAE economy
Dubai real estate boosts construction sector

UAE and Kenya launch digital corridor initiative
UAE in talks to invest in European nuclear power infrastructure
Abu Dhabi’s local content awards surge to $12bn
Dubai tunnels project dominates UAE pipeline
UAE marks successful power project deliveries
UAE is dropped from financial grey list

 

 

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James Gavin
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    This package also includes: Region boosts LNG spending


    Offtake agreements are crucial for producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to be able to reap long-term returns from their projects. 

    Traditionally, LNG has primarily been traded on the spot market, which, while beneficial to buyers, has left sellers with little profit.

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     Region boosts LNG spending

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  • Region boosts LNG spending

    29 April 2024

     

    This package also includes: Gulf players secure future of LNG projects 


    There has been a sharp rise in investment in projects aimed at expanding the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Gulf region since the start of this decade.

    A capital expenditure of close to $38bn has been made by Middle East and North Africa hydrocarbons producers in the past 10 years, mainly on projects to increase LNG output capacity, according to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    Almost three quarters of that spending has taken place in the past four years, and predominantly in the GCC.

    The rise in the importance of natural gas, and therefore LNG, as an energy transition fuel has led to strong growth in its demand worldwide. Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022, with tight supplies of LNG constraining growth, energy major Shell said in a recent report.

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    Gulf players are keen to cater to this growing demand and dominate the global supply market, fuelling a wave of investment in large-scale production-boosting projects and terminal construction schemes. 

    The total LNG production capacity of the GCC is expected to reach an estimated 200 million tonnes a year (t/y) by 2030, cementing the region’s position as the world’s largest LNG supplier.

    Taking the lead

    Qatar has been jostling with the US and Australia for the title of world’s largest LNG provider for many years. Each of these three producers have clinched the top spot at different points, only to be unseated by one of the others again.

    However, when its North Field LNG expansion starts to come online later in this decade, Qatar will be able to consolidate its position as the world’s largest producer and exporter of LNG in the long term.

    State enterprise QatarEnergy is understood to have spent almost $30bn on the two phases of the North Field LNG expansion programme, North Field East and North Field South, which will increase its LNG production capacity from 77.5 million t/y to 126 million t/y by 2028. Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on the two projects are making progress.

    QatarEnergy awarded the main EPC contracts in 2021 for the North Field East project, which is projected to increase LNG output to 110 million t/y by 2025. The main $13bn EPC package, which covers engineering, procurement, construction and installation of four LNG trains with capacities of 8 million t/y, was awarded to a consortium of Japan’s Chiyoda Corporation and France’s Technip Energies in February 2021.

    QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn main EPC contract for the North Field South LNG project, covering two large LNG processing trains, to a consortium of Technip Energies and Lebanon-based Consolidated Contractors Company in May 2023.

    When fully commissioned, the first two phases of the North Field LNG expansion programme will contribute a total supply capacity of 48 million t/y to the global LNG market.

    And Doha is not stopping there. QatarEnergy announced a third phase of its North Field LNG expansion programme in February. To be called North Field West, the project will further increase QatarEnergy’s LNG production capacity to 142 million t/y when it is commissioned by 2030.

    The North Field West project will have an LNG production capacity of 16 million t/y, which is expected to be achieved through two 8 million t/y LNG processing trains, based on the two earlier phases of QatarEnergy’s LNG expansion programme. The new project will draw feedstock for LNG production from the western zone of Qatar’s North Field offshore gas reserve.

    Muscat moves up

    Oman has been supplying LNG to customers, mainly in Asia, for many years. Majority state-owned Oman LNG operates three gas liquefaction trains at its site in Qalhat, with a nameplate capacity of 10.4 million t/y. Due to debottlenecking, the company’s complex now has a production capacity of about 11.4 million t/y.

    France’s TotalEnergies has also committed to becoming a major LNG supplier in the sultanate. In partnership with state energy holding conglomerate OQ, TotalEnergies has achieved final investment decision on a major LNG bunkering and export terminal in Oman’s northern city of Sohar.

    TotalEnergies is leading the Marsa LNG joint venture, which is developing the Sohar LNG terminal project. Marsa LNG was formed in December 2021 by TotalEnergies and OQ, with the partners owning 80% and 20% stakes, respectively.

    Marsa LNG plans to develop an integrated facility consisting of upstream units that will draw natural gas feedstock from TotalEnergies’ hydrocarbons concessions in Oman, particularly from the sultanate’s Blocks 10 and 11. 

    The joint venture is also planning an LNG bunkering terminal and storage units located in Sohar port, and a solar photovoltaic plant to power the LNG terminal.

    The Marsa LNG terminal will have a single train with the capacity to process about 1 million t/y of natural gas into LNG. The bunkering terminal will mainly supply LNG as a marine fuel to vessels. Marsa LNG has selected France’s Technip Energies to perform EPC works on the estimated $1bn project.

    Adnoc’s ambitions

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has historically been one of the GCC’s smaller LNG producers. Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Gas operates three large gas processing trains on Das Island. 

    At its Das Island terminal, Adnoc Gas has an LNG liquefaction and export capacity of about 6 million t/y. The facility’s first and second trains were commissioned in the 1970s and have a total combined output capacity of 2.9 million t/y. The third train came into operation in the mid-1990s and has a capacity of 3.2 million t/y.

    The LNG production and export capability of Adnoc Gas will receive a major boost when a new greenfield terminal that it has committed to developing in Ruwais, Abu Dhabi, comes online before the end of this decade.

    The planned LNG export terminal in Ruwais will have the capacity to produce about 9.6 million t/y of LNG from two processing trains, each with a capacity of 4.8 million t/y. The facility will ship LNG mainly to key Asian markets, such as Pakistan, India, China, South Korea and Japan.

    In March, Adnoc Group announced that it had issued a limited notice to proceed to a consortium of contractors for early EPC works on the Ruwais LNG terminal project. 

    The limited notice to proceed was given to a consortium led by Technip Energies, consisting of Japan-based JGC Corporation and Abu Dhabi-owned NMDC Energy.

    The overall value of the export terminal project is estimated to be more than $5bn. Adnoc is expected to issue the full EPC contract award for the Ruwais project in June this year.

     Gulf players secure future of LNG projects 

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    Indrajit Sen
  • Saudi Arabia extends Jubail-Buraydah IWTP deadline

    29 April 2024

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    The state water offtaker now expects to receive bids by the end of June, instead of 28 March, according to a source familiar with the project.

    The planned Jubail-Buraydah IWTP is a 603-kilometre (km) pipeline, which can transmit 650,000 cubic metres of water a day.

    It is larger than the Rayis-Rabigh IWTP project, which a consortium including the local Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies Company will develop and operate at a cost of SR7.78bn ($2bn).

    SWPC issued the request for proposals for the Jubail-Buraydah IWTP scheme to the prequalified bidders in October last year.

    MEED reported in February that at least three consortiums are forming to bid for a contract to develop Saudi Arabia's second independent water transmission pipeline (IWTP) project, which links Jubail and Buraydah.

    According to industry sources, the consortiums that are being formed include:

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    • Vision Invest (Local) / Taqa (UAE)

    MEED understands discussions are ongoing among other prequalified bidders to either join the consortiums or form separate ones. 

    The state water offtaker qualified 22 companies to bid for the contract in April 2022. They were:

    • Abdulaziz Alajlan Sons Company for Commercial & Real Estate Investment (Ajlan & Bros)
    • Abdullah Ibrahim Al Sayegh & Sons
    • Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa)
    • AliShar Contracting Company
    • Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies
    • Al Sharif Group for Contracting
    • Bin Omairah Contracting Company
    • China Gezhouba Group Overseas Investment Company 
    • China Harbour Engineering Company 
    • China Railway Construction Corporation (International)
    • China State Construction Engineering Corporation
    • CNIC Corporation
    • Cobra Instalaciones y Servicios
    • Gulf Investment Corporation
    • Lamar Holding
    • Marubeni Corporation
    • Mowah Company
    • Mutlaq Al Ghowairi Company for Contracting
    • Nesma Company
    • Norinco International Cooperation
    • SICIM
    • Vision International Investment Company

    The transaction advisory team for the client comprises US/India’s Synergy Consulting as financial adviser and the local Amer Al Amr and Germany’s Fichtner Consulting as legal and technical advisers, respectively.

    SWPC’s obligations under the water transfer agreement will be guaranteed by a credit support agreement entered into by the Finance Ministry on behalf of the Saudi government.

    The project is part of the kingdom’s National Water Strategy 2030, which aims to reduce the water demand-supply gap and ensure desalinated water accounts for 90% of national urban supply to reduce reliance on non-renewable ground sources.

    SWPC’s Seven-Year Planning Statement calls for the development of eight IWTP projects by 2028.

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    Jennifer Aguinaldo