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Transport projects driven by key trends

24 December 2024

 

Two key trends are driving the region’s transport projects. The first is a longstanding competitive advantage based on the Middle East’s strategic location, while the second is a renewed drive for regional integration. 

Over the past 20 years, the Middle East’s aviation sector has been transformed. Dubai has established itself as the world’s busiest international airport, while other regional airports have become significant aviation hubs, albeit on a smaller scale. 

The logic is simple. The Gulf is within an eight-hour flight of most major destinations and two-thirds of the world’s population. It is also strategically located between established markets in Europe and North America and emerging markets in Africa and Asia. 

Over the past decade, major projects have been undertaken to upgrade capacity and harness more of the global aviation market. As these projects were completed, 2024 became a turning point and the focus pivoted to two new projects that will be the largest airports in the region by far.

Major airports

Riyadh’s King Salman International airport was launched at the end of 2022. The airport, which will be built to replace the existing King Khalid International airport, aims to accommodate up to 120 million passengers by 2030 and 185 million by 2050.

In 2024, the project took several steps forward: it appointed UK-based Mace as a delivery partner; tendered contracts for delivery partner roles for the terminals, airside works and landside infrastructure; and began to approach contractors for construction work on the project. 

The region’s other major airport scheme is the $35bn expansion of Dubai’s Maktoum International airport. The project, which had been planned for over a decade, had new designs approved in April. It will have a passenger handling capacity of 260 million passengers annually – the world’s largest. 

Early infrastructure contracts have been awarded since the designs were approved, and contractors have been briefed on main construction packages that are expected to start in 2025. 

Building connections

The other key drive for the region’s transport projects is integration. Following the 2021 Al-Ula agreement, the GCC has been pressing to establish closer trade ties to accompany closer political links. At the same time, seaborne trade has been threatened by logistics bottlenecks and, more recently, by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. These two factors combined have led to a push to build better overland transport links across the region.

The best demonstration of the renewed focus on overland transport links connecting the region came in April 2024, when Oman-Etihad Rail Company awarded contracts for the Hafeet Rail project connecting the UAE with Oman. 

The estimated AED5.5bn ($1.5bn) design-and-build contract for the civil works was secured by Abu Dhabi-based National Projects Construction, National Infrastructure Construction Company and Tristar Engineering & Construction with Oman’s Galfar Engineering & Contracting. A contract for the rolling stock systems and integration contracts went to German firm Siemens and Egyptian contractor Hassan Allam Construction. 

The speed at which the Hafeet Rail contracts were awarded was an anomaly, as other major rail projects have taken much longer to be awarded and move into construction. This has become a source of frustration for companies that invest considerable time and financial resources in tendering for contracts. 

One of the longest-running contract negotiations in the region is for the $7bn Saudi Landbridge project that will link the western Red Sea coast of the kingdom to the eastern Gulf coast through Riyadh. 

Saudi China Landbridge Consortium signed a memorandum of understanding to develop the project in October 2018. After six years of negotiations, there is now an expectation that construction will start in 2025, although there have been false dawns in the past.

The Mecca Metro project also has a long history. MEED reported in June 2024 that a feasibility study for the $8bn first phase of the scheme had restarted. Contracts for construction work were tendered and close to being awarded
in 2014. 

Another rail project that has been slow to progress is Bahrain’s planned metro scheme. Launched in 2021, Bahrain’s Transportation & Telecommunications Ministry prequalified seven groups for the contract to deliver the first phase of the network on a public-private partnership basis in early 2023. Since then, it is understood that the project has shifted back to the study phase as the government considers the best way to proceed with the scheme. 

Airport projects also take time. The construction contract for the substructure of Al-Maktoum International airport was close to being awarded in early 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic. That tender then ceased to be a priority as the focus for Dubai’s aviation sector shifted to supporting airlines Emirates and Flydubai and airport operations during the lockdown period, enabling the sector to reopen more quickly than its competition. 

Now, expanding Dubai’s airport capacity is once again a strategic priority. Dubai International’s constrained site means it cannot add to its two existing runways, which means it is becoming vulnerable to being overtaken by other emerging hubs in the region.

At the tail end of the construction process, the completion of large-scale transportation projects is often delayed. The largest ongoing transport scheme in the region by value is Riyadh’s $23bn six-line metro network, for which construction contracts were awarded in 2013. It was rumoured in late 2024 that it would open by the end of the year, although no opening date has been confirmed. 

There are examples of rail projects being completed more quickly. The Doha Metro network was opened as planned before Qatar hosted football’s Fifa World Cup 2022. The second and third phases of the UAE’s Etihad Rail network were also completed promptly, which has allowed Etihad Rail to focus on other schemes such as the passenger rail service, the Hafeet Rail project and the proposed high-speed rail scheme. 

Like railways, there are examples of delayed airport schemes that ran over budget. The Midfield Terminal Complex at Abu Dhabi International airport was delayed for years, as was the opening of the first phase of Hamad International airport in Qatar and Muscat International airport in Oman. 

Although delays were a significant problem for the construction companies involved in the projects, it is worth
noting that once the projects were completed, they were broadly praised for their quality and step-change in passenger experience.

 

Future focus

Looking ahead to 2025, the region’s strategic location and competitive edge in aviation will remain, which will support the business case for airport projects. The more interesting challenge will be the region’s ability to fund projects as large as King Salman International airport and Al-Maktoum International airport. 

In Saudi Arabia, project spending is being more closely managed than it was in the past, and although people close to the King Salman International airport scheme insist that it remains a strategic priority, the same can be said of many other major projects in the kingdom. 

There are also funding questions to be answered for Al-Maktoum International airport. Dubai does not have the financial resources to match Saudi Arabia, and with other infrastructure spending commitments – such as the $5bn Blue Line extension to Dubai Metro and an $8bn stormwater drainage scheme – funding the $35bn airport project will be a challenging undertaking. 

High-level concerns are also present for transport links within the region. The warm relations that countries within the region enjoy today may change in the future, and should that happen, the impetus to complete regional rail links will quickly subside. 

On the operational level, securing contractors and resources from the supply chain will be an ongoing problem. The record levels of construction awards in recent years mean that construction companies can afford to be selective about the projects they work on, and when they do choose to bid, they no longer feel obliged to slash their prices.

According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, there were $37.8bn of transport contract awards in 2023, up from the $36.8bn of awards recorded in 2022. 

By the end of October 2024, there had been $30.8bn of transport project contract awards. If extrapolated, this suggests a $37bn total for 2024, which is only slightly below the 2023 annual total. 

The ability of contractors to hold firm when bidding was evidenced in October 2024, when initial offers were submitted for Dubai Metro’s Blue Line extension. The lowest bids were about $1bn over the project’s official $5bn budget, and a subsequent round of revised prices did not reduce that gap significantly. 

Dubai Metro is just one of several major rail schemes due to be awarded soon. As well as the Saudi Landbridge, contractors are also competing for a contract to complete the extension to Riyadh Metro’s Line 2, which is at the bid evaluation stage. A contract to build an entirely new Line 7 was also tendered in September 2024 with a closing date in March 2025. 

While it is not entirely reliant on these metro projects and the airports in Riyadh and Dubai moving into construction, their progress will go a long way to determining whether 2025 is a good year or not for transport projects in the region. 

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Colin Foreman

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    Yasir Iqbal
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