Meed | Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy forges onward

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy forges onward

3 April 2025

The kingdom’s recent news flow provides a range of indicators offering ammunition for those with both glass half-full and glass half-empty views on the country’s economic prospects.

Saudi decision makers can point to some positive signals that suggest the tapering of oil prices is not putting a major dent into the country’s economic outlook, with the robust non-oil performance giving some comfort to policymakers in Riyadh.

The Saudi Purchasing Managers’ Index recorded its highest level in over a decade in January, as non-oil business conditions improved amid increases in new orders and higher sales volumes.

GDP growth has been solid, despite weaker oil production and prices. According to Al-Rajhi Capital, Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grew by 4.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024 – the highest growth rate in two years – lifted by a 4.6% rise in non-oil GDP, as compared to a 3.4% increase in oil sector GDP.

Consumer sentiment is robust, with spending growing by 11% in year-on-year terms in January, according to Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment.

Balancing the budget

Public finances are the biggest casualty of the deterioration in oil export earnings.

Saudi Aramco’s decision in early March to cut its annual dividend payout will come as a blow to the country’s public finances, as the company confirmed that its payouts will drop by $39bn in 2025 – a 31% decline in year-on-year terms.

According to consultancy Capital Economics, a performance-linked dividend of just $200m will be paid out this quarter, far lower than the $10.8bn distributed in each quarter of 2024, and which, over the year, was equivalent to more than 10% of state revenues.

The worsening finances follow a period when the government was in a stronger position to lean on Aramco’s higher earnings – in 2021-22, when oil prices were soaring. That windfall now appears to have been exhausted, with follow-through for this year’s performance.

With Brent crude averaging around $70 a barrel this year, and potentially slipping to $60 a barrel by the end of 2026, Capital Economics anticipates government revenues being about 4% of GDP lower this year compared to 2024. This implies that the budget deficit will be higher than the 2.3% of GDP forecast in the 2025 budget.

“Going towards a deficit in a range of 5%-6% of GDP will start to raise the alarm bells for the government,” says James Swanston, a senior economist focused on the Middle East and North Africa region at Capital Economics.

“That’s not to say they can’t easily finance that. They’ve got very large assets and they have tapped the international capital markets over the last few years, so if they wanted to issue more debt near-term, that’s not a concern.”

However, more cuts to Aramco’s dividends this year will only add to the pressure on the government to raise borrowing. And relying on borrowing to fill the fiscal gap will contribute to a worsening of the kingdom’s debt-to-GDP ratio, which could rise from 29.6% to over 70% by the end of the decade, according to Capital Economics.

This leaves a mixed economic picture for the kingdom, with oil weakness set against still-resilient non-oil confidence, though the former is also little cause for alarm, according to analysts.

“The budget wasn’t assuming that Saudi Aramco’s performance-linked dividends would still be as big as they were in the second half of 2023 and in 2024. It’s not a shock to the budget plan, and that explains why the revenue projections show a decline in revenue in 2025,” says Toby Iles, chief economist at Jadwa Investment.

“Of course, if you’ve got 3% of GDP less in revenue than in 2024, then that does tighten the budgetary situation year on year. At Jadwa, we’ve forecast a deficit of close to SR130bn ($34.7bn), which is around 3% of GDP. But the government does have fiscal space to go wider than that, if it decides to.”

The other option for the government is to continue to issue debt and make larger cuts to its capital expenditure than those already outlined in the budget. “The authorities will probably be reluctant to cut current expenditure or the public sector, so capital projects may be where the cuts will be,” says Swanston.

There may also be more impetus to raise revenues. Although Saudi Arabia has not set out firm plans, a real estate tax could emerge as one measure that could swell depleting state coffers.

Market sentiment holds

In the meantime, robust bank credit approaching 15% in year-on-year terms, along with a surge in consumer spending, shows that in domestic terms, economic sentiment is still strong.

Structural elements of the budget have also been improving. “Non-oil revenue, for example, now covers 85% of wage spending, whereas in 2016 it covered less than half. That’s almost approaching parity, which is pretty positive,” says Iles.

Jadwa expects real GDP growth of 3.7% in 2025, led by another strong performance by the non-oil sector, the economy’s main growth engine.

This links to a broader question of whether Saudi Arabia’s non-oil growth reflects impetus from the country’s private sector, unaffected by any cyclical retrenchment, or whether the impact of the economic transformation is starting to be felt.

“When you look at the performance of the non-oil sector, you see pretty strong growth across a range of sectors. It’s quite broad based, and links back to the strong consumption trends and the strong investment. And both of those things are, to an extent, linked to Vision 2030 reforms,” says Iles.

If the non-oil vibrance can survive global headwinds, including weaker oil prices, then the government’s insistence on the importance of holding to its ambitious economic transformation agenda may be vindicated sooner than 2030.

MEED’s April 2025 report on Saudi Arabia also includes:

> GOVERNMENT: Riyadh takes the diplomatic initiative
> BANKING: Saudi banks work to keep pace with credit expansion
> UPSTREAM: Saudi oil and gas spending to surpass 2024 level
> DOWNSTREAM: Aramco’s recalibrated chemical goals reflect realism
> POWER: Saudi power sector enters busiest year
> WATER: Saudi water contracts set another annual record
> CONSTRUCTION: Reprioritisation underpins Saudi construction
> TRANSPORT: Riyadh pushes ahead with infrastructure development

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James Gavin

Exclusive from Meed

Jedco maps next phase of Jeddah airport expansion
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Oman tenders Thumrait Industrial City infrastructure
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Kuwait halves drilling contractor pool
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Abu Dhabi expects 45% emissions cut as electricity demand rises
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Jedco maps next phase of Jeddah airport expansion
22 September 2026

Jeddah Airports Company (Jedco) has outlined plans for the next phase of expansion at King Abdulaziz International airport (KAIA) in Jeddah.

The programme comprises six upcoming contractor packages spanning airside works, terminal upgrades and utilities as Jedco advances its long-term expansion plans.

The opportunities include airfield rehabilitation; a five-year construction framework covering multiple workstreams and facility types; a Terminal 3A (T3A) package; Terminal 1 (T1) optimisation; a fuel farm; and Concourse C works.

The packages cover terminal buildings and ancillary facilities, runways, taxiways and aprons, hangars, fuel systems, airside facilities, supporting infrastructure and utility networks.

Tendering and award activity will be staggered over the next two years. Airfield rehabilitation is targeted for Q3 2026. The construction framework is scheduled for Q4 2026 and will run for five years.

The T3A package is planned for Q1 2027 and will be delivered under an early contractor involvement contract. Local contractors are encouraged to bid as part of a joint venture with an experienced international partner.

T1 optimisation is planned for Q4 2027, the fuel farm for Q2 2027, and Concourse C – currently the latest of the six milestones – for Q2 2028.

The new packages add detail to Jedco’s wider expansion plans disclosed in 2023, when it was reported that the company would invest SR115bn ($31bn) to increase KAIA’s capacity to 114 million passengers a year, with an overall completion target of 2031.

Jedco has recently awarded several significant contracts linked to the airport’s upgrade programme.

In November 2024, a joint venture of local Algihaz Contracting and Turkey’s TAV was awarded a contract to rehabilitate the South Terminal to serve Umrah and Hajj pilgrims, with Singapore’s Surbana Jurong acting as consultant.

Earlier that year, Jedco also awarded France’s Alstom a contract to increase the capacity of the Innovia automated people mover at Terminal 1, including new cars and upgrades to signalling, communications and controls.

Surbana Jurong is expected to play a leading role in future KAIA expansion plans and is currently providing technical advisory and project management consultancy for more than 100 capital projects for Jedco, valued at over SR6bn ($1.6bn).

These upgrades are expected to boost KAIA’s annual capacity in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and National Aviation Strategy, enhancing the experience for domestic travellers and millions of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims.

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Yasir Iqbal

Contractor wins $105m Medina university hospital deal

22 September 2026

Riyadh-based construction firm Al-Mansouria General Contracting Company has been awarded a SR396m ($105.6m) contract to complete the remaining construction works on the Taiba University Hospital project in Medina.

The contract scope includes structural completion, remaining civil works, mechanical, electrical and plumbing installations, specialised clinical fit-outs and medical gas infrastructure to bring the long-stalled facility into operation.

Located on King Khalid Road along Medina’s Third Ring Road, the teaching hospital will have a capacity of 563 beds.

The contract duration is three years, with delivery targeted for late 2029.

The latest award follows a prolonged procurement cycle that began more than a decade ago as part of a public budget drive to expand Saudi Arabia’s higher education infrastructure.

The project’s first phase was initially signed in December 2011 with local firm Al-Muhaidib Contracting under a SR500m ($133.3m) contract.

Groundbreaking for the eight-storey complex took place in July 2013. The project covers a gross floor area of more than 200,000 square metres.

Progress stalled shortly thereafter due to reported structural delays and the reallocation of public capital budgets across the kingdom’s social infrastructure pipeline.

READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> AGENDA: Gulf nuclear revival takes shape

> MARKET FOCUS: Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive under fire

> INDUSTRY REPORT: Gas processing takes centre stage in Mena region

> INTERVIEW: Emsteel persists with business productivity and efficiency

> TUNNELS: The Gulf’s next construction boom is happening underground

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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Yasir Iqbal

Oman tenders Thumrait Industrial City infrastructure
22 September 2026

Oman’s Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (Madayn) has tendered an estimated RO15m ($39m) contract to develop infrastructure for Thumrait Industrial City.

The tender was issued on 14 September, with bids due by 12 November.

The scope covers site-wide utilities and services, including an internal road network, stormwater channels and culverts. It also includes installing sewerage and water networks, along with landscaping works.

In addition, Madayn intends to build plug-and-play industrial units and a facilities building.

The first phase of the development will cover about 120,000 square metres (sq m).

Thumrait Industrial City is located in Oman’s Dhofar Governorate and spans an area of more than four million sq m.

The project location is close to concession blocks, quarry sites and the Najd agricultural areas. It is positioned to attract industrial investments in sectors such as mining and minerals processing (including gypsum and cement), food production, and a range of light and general manufacturing activities.

In March, Madayn said it is preparing to invest more than RO245m ($637m) to upgrade and expand infrastructure across its industrial cities between 2026 and 2030, as part of efforts to attract new investment and advance economic diversification.

According to media reports, Madayn chief executive Dawood Bin Salim Al-Hadabi said the programme is part of an expanded, phased plan aligned with Oman Vision 2040 and the authority’s long-term Madayn 2040 strategy.

The objective is to deepen Oman’s industrial base and spread growth across the sultanate’s governorates.

Madayn said the pipeline comprises about 90 strategic projects to improve industrial-city infrastructure, extend serviced land and increase the overall ease of doing business for investors.

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Yasir Iqbal
Kuwait halves drilling contractor pool
22 September 2026
State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has reduced the number of approved contractors for onshore drilling and shallow-well maintenance from 51 to 24.

Firms that are no longer qualified include major contractors such as Italy’s Saipem, Oklahoma-based Helmerich & Payne and Houston-based Patterson-UTI Energy.

The latest list still includes a wide range of Kuwaiti, regional and international companies, according to the latest update on its electronic system, published on 21 September 2026.

The full list of contractors that are now qualified to participate in tenders is:
- Burgan Company for Well Drilling, Trading & Maintenance (Kuwait)
- Kuwait Drilling Company (Kuwait)
- Sun Drilling Kuwait (Kuwait)
- TDL Kuwait for Oil Rigs & Natural Gas Extraction Activities, Services and Facilities (Kuwait)
- United Precision Drilling (Kuwait)
- Abraj Energy Services (Oman)
- Adnoc Drilling Company (UAE)
- Arabian Drilling Company (Saudi Arabia)
- Anton Oilfield Services (China)
- China Oilfield Services (China)
- Egyptian Drilling Company (Egypt)
- CNPC Bohai Drilling Engineering Company (China)
- Great Wall Drilling Company (China)
- John Energy (India)
- Kerui Oilfield Service (China)
- KCA Deutag Drilling (Germany)
- Mohammed Al-Barwani Petroleum Services (Oman)
- Nabors Drilling International (US)
- National Drilling & Services Company (Oman)
- Sea & Land Drilling Contractors (Oman)
- Sinopec International Petroleum Service Corporation (China)
- Karamay Jianye Energy (China)
- Modern Drilling Company (Egypt)
- Grey Wolf Drilling International (US)
An earlier list, which was published on 11 February, included 51 qualified companies.

The reduction in qualified drilling contractors follows KOC’s notice on 27 April this year, informing existing qualified contractors that they would need to reapply.
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Wil Crisp

Abu Dhabi expects 45% emissions cut as electricity demand rises

21 September 2026

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Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) expects carbon emissions from power and water production to fall by more than 45% by 2035 as the UAE expands renewable energy and reverse osmosis (RO) desalination.

The state offtaker's latest long-term system planning forecasts emissions will decline from about 42 million tonnes in 2019 to approximately 23 million tonnes in 2035.

The reduction is expected despite annual electricity demand that is forecast to rise by about 70% in 2026-33.

Ewec said the expansion of renewable energy and the shift towards RO desalination will be the principal drivers of the reduction.

The company plans to increase Abu Dhabi's solar capacity to 14GW by 2030 and more than 35GW by 2035. This will be supported by up to 15GW of battery storage capacity.

According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, Ewec has over $16bn-worth of power and water projects in the execution stage as part of its long-term procurement programme to increase renewable energy and low-carbon water production capacity.

This includes a 5.2GW Abu Dhabi solar and battery energy storage system (bess) round-the-clock renewable energy project, as well as three 1.5GW solar photovoltaic independent power projects (IPP): Al-Ajban, Al-Khazna and Al-Zarraf.

It also comprises the 1GW Al-Dhafra open-cycle gas turbine power plant, the 2.5GW Taweelah C combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant and a separate 400MW bess IPP.

As previously reported, it is expected that the developer's agreement for the 3.3GW Al-Nouf 1 CCGT IPP will be signed by the end of the year, while contractors are preparing to submit bids for a separate 2.6GW power plant project in Ajman.

The expansion of solar and battery storage is expected to reduce the system's reliance on gas-fired generation. However, gas-fired generation will continue to provide flexibility to support the system and balance intermittent renewable power output, according to Ewec.

The offtaker also expects RO desalination to account for more than 95% of total water production by 2035, with the procurement programme supporting the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy's Clean Energy Strategic Target 2035 for electricity production and the UAE Net Zero by 2050 Strategy.