Iran conflict curbs migrant labour flows to Gulf

4 June 2026

The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has flagged early signs that the conflict involving Iran is affecting the Gulf’s labour market. Speaking to CNBC, the ILO’s acting deputy chief, Sher Verick, said departures of migrant workers from sending countries have fallen sharply this year.

“We don’t yet have numbers about those leaving the Gulf, but what we have are numbers that show that the departures of migrant workers from sending countries are significantly down,” Verick said. “For example, in the Philippines, the departures year on year are down by 78%.”

Verick said disruptions in the Middle East are preventing workers from travelling to take up jobs and earn income, with knock-on effects for remittances that support household consumption, education and healthcare in sending countries. He added that the ILO would be watching for data on return flows from the Gulf back to Asian sending markets.

Job risks

The ILO has also assessed the share of jobs most exposed to conflict-related disruption. “Globally, we see around 15% of employment in that high exposure category, but this is much higher in the Middle East, at over 50%, and in Asia Pacific at around 22% of employment,” Verick told CNBC.

Sectors most affected include transport, given reliance on fuel and other energy sources, and manufacturing due to supply chain exposure. Tourism-linked activities are also vulnerable, while agriculture is affected by disruption to fertiliser supply and pricing.

A report by Fitch in early June said the conflict is placing several sectors across the GCC under severe operational and financial strain. Industries including aviation, hospitality, chemicals and residential real estate development face heightened vulnerabilities.

Airlines are grappling with route disruption and higher fuel costs, while the hospitality sector has seen weaker occupancy amid security concerns and travel disruption. Regional chemical producers face higher feedstock prices, and residential real estate developers risk slower investment, which could dampen employment in construction – a sector that relies heavily on migrant labour.


READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17105894/main.gif
Colin Foreman
Related Articles