meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi banks track more modest growth path

15 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> Riyadh rides power projects surge
> Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

Surging oil prices may have imbued the kingdom with a renewed sense of economic purpose, but the situation for banks is more complicated.

Economic conditions – notably the higher interest rate climate – have made life more challenging for lenders. They have been acquainting themselves with normality in 2023, after two post-Covid years in which the increase in profit yields averaged 30 per cent.

This year, Saudi bank metrics are solid rather than spectacular. Second-quarter net profits for the country’s 10 listed banks declined by 0.3 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms to SR17.4bn ($4.64bn), according to figures from Alvarez & Marsal.

Fitch Ratings expects average sector financing growth to slow this year, although remaining above the GCC average of a forecast 5-6 per cent.

According to Junaid Ansari, head of Investment Strategy & Research at Kamco Invest, Saudi Arabia still recorded the strongest growth in outstanding credit facilities during the second quarter of 2023 at 2.5 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms, while growth in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman was below 1 per cent.

Growth drivers

Aggregate credit facilities in Saudi Arabia grew 5.2 per cent on the start of the year to reach SR2.5tn ($670bn).

“Real estate was the biggest sector in terms of total lending in Saudi Arabia, accounting for 30 per cent of total bank credit facilities and 61 per cent of personal facilities during the second quarter,” says Ansari, citing Saudi central bank data from Bloomberg. 

“Lending growth at Saudi banks is still high, albeit decreasing,” says Anton Lopatin, senior director at Fitch Ratings.

“Fitch is forecasting it to be 12 per cent for the whole year 2023, compared to 14 per cent last year. This is partially because mortgage financing affordability has decreased due to higher interest rates and also state subsidies have been tightened.”

Strong demand for mortgage financing, underpinned by a state subsidy programme, has supported the financing growth of Saudi banks in recent years, says Fitch.

Mortgage financing reached SR567bn ($151bn) at the end of the first quarter of 2023, with a compound average growth rate of 35 per cent over the past five years.

But Fitch sees financing growth moderating in Saudi Arabia.

“In the first six months of this year, deposit growth was above lending growth and that wasn’t the case in 2022,” says Lopatin, who points out that if banks’ funding base is growing faster than financing, that reduces pressure on liquidity.

Liquidity levels

Broadly speaking, liquidity is still healthy in Saudi Arabia. Low-cost current account and savings account (Casa) deposits in Saudi Arabia are still among the highest in the GCC, and there is a strong cash-rich government behind the banks in case of need.

After some liquidity tightening in 2022, the Central Bank (Sama) placed SR50bn ($13.3bn) of deposits in the banking sector to reduce the pressure.

“This is a Saudi-specific issue, reflecting that banks’ financing books are growing faster than deposits, and that is putting pressure on liquidity,” says Lopatin.

Casa deposits remain high in the kingdom, even though rising interest rates have led some customers to shift into term deposits. In the first quarter of 2023, Casa deposits still accounted for 56 per cent of total deposits, whereas two years ago the figure was 65 per cent.

“One reason for this [9 per cent decline] is the higher interest rates, but it’s also because banks have been competing for funding to support their growth. There is a huge increase in the cost of funding, but the margin is still very healthy, and the average net interest margin for the first quarter was 3.2 per cent,” says Lopatin.

Despite the higher cost of borrowing – and the attendant risk that this could force clients to default on loans – this should be manageable for most lenders.

“We believe that with adequate controls and policies, asset quality is not a concern at present for the Saudi banking sector,” says Kamco’s Ansari.

“The cost of risk for the sector has been consistently declining over the last quarters and stood at 44 bps, one of the lowest over the last several quarters. This also remains well below the GCC average of 66 bps.”

Loan health

Another source of comfort for Saudi banks is that the higher interest rates are applied to new loans while older loans remain at pre-decided fixed rates.

As a result, non-performing loans (NPLs) are not expected to see any steep increase in the coming quarters – especially, notes Ansari, in light of expectations of rate cuts from next year.

“In the first quarter of 2023, the average NPL ratio was stable at around 2 per cent, and the cost of risk was about 50 bps, which is rather low,” says Lopatin.

In construction and real estate, this could become an issue if higher interest rates result in higher borrowing costs for these companies.

“Not all of them operate with very healthy margins. Thus, their debt service capability will deteriorate. But as of now, we do not see significant upticks in cost of risk or sector average NPL ratios,” says Lopatin.

If Saudi banks are forced to reduce their exposure to real estate, there should be other opportunities for them to grow loan books – not least the Vision 2030-linked series of gigaprojects looking for support. Some of the Saudi banks whose balance sheets have expanded following mergers are now better placed to fund infrastructure projects.

According to the IMF, while mortgage growth has recently moderated, demand for project-related and consumer loans is expected to remain strong, helping offset the impact on profitability from rising funding costs linked to higher policy rates.

This may take a while to materialise. “As of now, we see only moderate financing for companies participating in the execution of the new gigaprojects in Saudi Arabia, but over the longer term, this will support banks’ lending growth,” says Lopatin.

There are other benefits to supporting these projects, not least with the government being the ultimate guarantor, which is positive from an asset quality perspective. 

With a strengthening oil price expected to underpin a Saudi economic renaissance, there should be many more opportunities for growth-oriented Saudi banks to get their teeth into.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11139548/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Qatar seeks to establish new industrial area in Mesaieed

    16 July 2026

    Qatar’s Ministry of Commerce & Industry and state enterprise QatarEnergy have signed an agreement to cooperate on evaluating and allocating hydrocarbon-derived resources to support the establishment of a new medium industries area in Mesaieed Industrial City.

    Under the terms of reference signed between the parties, QatarEnergy will implement a governance mechanism for the allocation of hydrocarbon-derived feedstock to qualifying industrial investment opportunities for the proposed new medium industries area in Mesaieed Industrial City.

    “The agreed terms of reference stipulate the evaluation and allocation of hydrocarbon-derived resources, natural gas, power and related natural resources to downstream derivative industrial investment opportunities,” QatarEnergy said in a statement.

    “It will also ensure the optimal use of national resources and enhance the added value of the industrial sector by establishing a joint governance framework to evaluate and allocate resources required by qualified industrial investment opportunities,” it added.

    QatarEnergy currently operates crude oil refining facilities, including natural gas liquids units, as well as petrochemical production complexes and other units in the hydrocarbon value chain, in Mesaieed Industrial City, situated around 45 kilometres south of Doha.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17688383/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Bahri signs deal for two offshore vessels with Dubai shipyard

    16 July 2026

    Bahri Logistics, a division of Saudi Arabia’s national shipping company Bahri, has placed an order for the construction of two advanced offshore support vessels with Dubai-based Grandweld Shipyard.

    Grandweld will custom-build the two vessels to meet Bahri’s operational requirements for offshore activities at Ras Tanura port in Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s busiest oil and gas bunkering and export hubs.

    The vessels will be built at Grandweld’s shipyard in Dubai Maritime City and are expected to be delivered in August, following a 12-month building period.

    The vessels will feature the latest navigation and safety technologies. They are designed to perform multiple offshore support functions, including vessel clearance, crew changes and emergency response, while adhering to international maritime standards.

    The newbuild agreement with Grandweld aligns with Bahri’s broader strategy “to modernise its fleet, enhance technical capabilities, and adopt more energy-efficient and environmentally responsible designs”.

    “Through continued investments in technology, infrastructure and fleet diversification, Bahri Logistics aims to deliver smarter, more sustainable logistics solutions that contribute to the Saudi Green Initiative and the kingdom’s long-term economic diversification goals,” the Saudi Stock Exchange-listed (Tadawul) company said in a statement.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17687877/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Egypt intensifies efforts to create petroleum stockpile

    16 July 2026

    Egypt is intensifying its efforts to secure and maintain a sufficient strategic stockpile of petroleum products, according to a statement from the country’s cabinet and its Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

    The Egyptian government is closely monitoring regional developments and their potential repercussions on the energy sector, according to the statement.

    Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said that the government is implementing flexible plans and looking at alternative scenarios so that it can respond quickly to emergencies while ensuring the uninterrupted supply of fuel to citizens and key industrial sectors.

    Egypt is intensifying its efforts to build up strategic stockpiles amid heightened uncertainty about future global oil and gas supplies.

    Since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, there has been significant disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key transit route for oil and gas exports from the Middle East.

    On top of this, the regional war has involved multiple direct attacks on refineries in the GCC, increasing uncertainty about the future availability of refined products.

    Aside from Motafa Madbouly, the meeting was also attended by Hassan Abdullah, who is governor of the Central Bank, Minister of Finance Ahmed Koguk and Minister of Petroleum and Minerals Karim Badawi.

    During the meeting, Badawi gave a presentation on the available quantities of different petroleum products and explained the details of the procedures currently being implemented to increase the strategic stock of petroleum products.

    A review of the coordination framework and joint work between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank also took place during the meeting.

    This was in order to ensure the management of financial tools needed to strengthen the country’s strategic inventory, according to the statement.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17685719/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Tunisia orders $86m of trainsets from Chinese supplier

    16 July 2026

    Tunisian public transport operator Transtu has finalised an $86m agreement with China’s CRRC Nanjing Puzhen.

    CRRC will supply 18 new electric trainsets for the capital’s northern suburban rail network, which links Tunis to La Goulette and La Marsa.

    Each new trainset will be air-conditioned and capable of carrying up to 400 passengers, including 90 seated riders, with a top speed of 100 km/h. Once operational, the trains are expected to run at six-minute intervals during rush hour and every 12 minutes during off-peak hours.

    The deal forms part of a broader fleet renewal effort by Transtu, which has struggled in recent years with operational setbacks that have taken a toll on the quality of public transport across Greater Tunis.

    The acquisition is designed to boost capacity on the heavily used line as ridership continues to grow, while also enhancing safety standards and overall service quality.

    Funding for the project comes jointly from the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development and the European Investment Bank.

    Beyond the trainsets, the contract includes five years of maintenance coverage, a supply of spare parts and maintenance equipment, and an underfloor wheel lathe aimed at improving long-term fleet reliability.

    This latest investment fits into Tunisia’s larger railway modernisation strategy, under which the government plans to invest $12bn by 2040 to expand and upgrade the country’s rail infrastructure.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17683957/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • PIF developer tenders 365-metre Mecca residential tower

    16 July 2026

     

    Rua Al-Haram Al-Makki has tendered the main construction package for the Ajyad residential tower, a 365-metre high-rise development in Mecca’s central area, close to the grand mosque.

    The bid submission deadline is 30 September. 

    Rua Al-Haram Al-Makki Company was established in October 2017 and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.

    The project team includes US-based Marriott International as residential operator, Hanmi Global Saudi as project management consultant, Saudi Diyar Consultants as construction supervision consultant, and PLP Architecture as lead design consultant and construction-stage design guardian.

    The tower rises 84 floors with four basement levels. It comprises a total of 212 units, including 82 three-bedroom apartments, 85 four-bedroom units, 29 penthouses and 16 duplex villas.

    The scheme has a gross floor area of 209,231 square metres (sq m) and a built-up area of 242,976 sq m.

    The site is currently being cleared by a demolition contractor, with the existing mat foundation and retaining walls to be handed over to the main contractor, who will build the new superstructure on the retained raft.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17683664/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal