meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi banks track more modest growth path

15 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> Riyadh rides power projects surge
> Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

Surging oil prices may have imbued the kingdom with a renewed sense of economic purpose, but the situation for banks is more complicated.

Economic conditions – notably the higher interest rate climate – have made life more challenging for lenders. They have been acquainting themselves with normality in 2023, after two post-Covid years in which the increase in profit yields averaged 30 per cent.

This year, Saudi bank metrics are solid rather than spectacular. Second-quarter net profits for the country’s 10 listed banks declined by 0.3 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms to SR17.4bn ($4.64bn), according to figures from Alvarez & Marsal.

Fitch Ratings expects average sector financing growth to slow this year, although remaining above the GCC average of a forecast 5-6 per cent.

According to Junaid Ansari, head of Investment Strategy & Research at Kamco Invest, Saudi Arabia still recorded the strongest growth in outstanding credit facilities during the second quarter of 2023 at 2.5 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms, while growth in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman was below 1 per cent.

Growth drivers

Aggregate credit facilities in Saudi Arabia grew 5.2 per cent on the start of the year to reach SR2.5tn ($670bn).

“Real estate was the biggest sector in terms of total lending in Saudi Arabia, accounting for 30 per cent of total bank credit facilities and 61 per cent of personal facilities during the second quarter,” says Ansari, citing Saudi central bank data from Bloomberg. 

“Lending growth at Saudi banks is still high, albeit decreasing,” says Anton Lopatin, senior director at Fitch Ratings.

“Fitch is forecasting it to be 12 per cent for the whole year 2023, compared to 14 per cent last year. This is partially because mortgage financing affordability has decreased due to higher interest rates and also state subsidies have been tightened.”

Strong demand for mortgage financing, underpinned by a state subsidy programme, has supported the financing growth of Saudi banks in recent years, says Fitch.

Mortgage financing reached SR567bn ($151bn) at the end of the first quarter of 2023, with a compound average growth rate of 35 per cent over the past five years.

But Fitch sees financing growth moderating in Saudi Arabia.

“In the first six months of this year, deposit growth was above lending growth and that wasn’t the case in 2022,” says Lopatin, who points out that if banks’ funding base is growing faster than financing, that reduces pressure on liquidity.

Liquidity levels

Broadly speaking, liquidity is still healthy in Saudi Arabia. Low-cost current account and savings account (Casa) deposits in Saudi Arabia are still among the highest in the GCC, and there is a strong cash-rich government behind the banks in case of need.

After some liquidity tightening in 2022, the Central Bank (Sama) placed SR50bn ($13.3bn) of deposits in the banking sector to reduce the pressure.

“This is a Saudi-specific issue, reflecting that banks’ financing books are growing faster than deposits, and that is putting pressure on liquidity,” says Lopatin.

Casa deposits remain high in the kingdom, even though rising interest rates have led some customers to shift into term deposits. In the first quarter of 2023, Casa deposits still accounted for 56 per cent of total deposits, whereas two years ago the figure was 65 per cent.

“One reason for this [9 per cent decline] is the higher interest rates, but it’s also because banks have been competing for funding to support their growth. There is a huge increase in the cost of funding, but the margin is still very healthy, and the average net interest margin for the first quarter was 3.2 per cent,” says Lopatin.

Despite the higher cost of borrowing – and the attendant risk that this could force clients to default on loans – this should be manageable for most lenders.

“We believe that with adequate controls and policies, asset quality is not a concern at present for the Saudi banking sector,” says Kamco’s Ansari.

“The cost of risk for the sector has been consistently declining over the last quarters and stood at 44 bps, one of the lowest over the last several quarters. This also remains well below the GCC average of 66 bps.”

Loan health

Another source of comfort for Saudi banks is that the higher interest rates are applied to new loans while older loans remain at pre-decided fixed rates.

As a result, non-performing loans (NPLs) are not expected to see any steep increase in the coming quarters – especially, notes Ansari, in light of expectations of rate cuts from next year.

“In the first quarter of 2023, the average NPL ratio was stable at around 2 per cent, and the cost of risk was about 50 bps, which is rather low,” says Lopatin.

In construction and real estate, this could become an issue if higher interest rates result in higher borrowing costs for these companies.

“Not all of them operate with very healthy margins. Thus, their debt service capability will deteriorate. But as of now, we do not see significant upticks in cost of risk or sector average NPL ratios,” says Lopatin.

If Saudi banks are forced to reduce their exposure to real estate, there should be other opportunities for them to grow loan books – not least the Vision 2030-linked series of gigaprojects looking for support. Some of the Saudi banks whose balance sheets have expanded following mergers are now better placed to fund infrastructure projects.

According to the IMF, while mortgage growth has recently moderated, demand for project-related and consumer loans is expected to remain strong, helping offset the impact on profitability from rising funding costs linked to higher policy rates.

This may take a while to materialise. “As of now, we see only moderate financing for companies participating in the execution of the new gigaprojects in Saudi Arabia, but over the longer term, this will support banks’ lending growth,” says Lopatin.

There are other benefits to supporting these projects, not least with the government being the ultimate guarantor, which is positive from an asset quality perspective. 

With a strengthening oil price expected to underpin a Saudi economic renaissance, there should be many more opportunities for growth-oriented Saudi banks to get their teeth into.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11139548/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Adnoc Gas to move prudently on Bab gas cap project

    10 August 2026

    Adnoc Gas, the natural gas processing business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group), has said it is treading cautiously towards a final investment decision (FID) on its estimated $8bn Bab gas cap development project.

    The project aims to build a gas processing plant in the Bab area, about 170 kilometres from Abu Dhabi city, along with associated pipeline networks and ancillary units, to process up to 1.85 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of additional raw gas once its parent company starts production from the Bab gas caps.

    “We are at an early stage when it comes to engagement with the market on Bab gas cap. At this stage, we are not in a position to discuss any of the technical or commercial aspects of the Bab gas cap project,” Fatema Al-Nuaimi, Adnoc Gas CEO, said in response to a question from MEED during a press conference on 10 August.

    Adnoc Gas has divided the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) scope of work on the Bab gas cap development project into four main packages:

    • EPC package 1 – Main Bab gas cap plant
    • EPC package 2 – Early civil works
    • EPC package 3 – Pipelines
    • EPC package 4 – Non-process facilities and associated works package

    Adnoc Gas issued the tender for the main Bab gas cap plant on 25 June and set an initial deadline of 17 July for contractors to submit technical bids. The company then extended the technical bid submission deadline by four months until 16 November, MEED recently reported.

    Peter Van Driel, chief financial officer of Adnoc Gas, said: “There are two parts to this. You have an upstream decision and an Adnoc Gas decision.

    “Upstream [Adnoc Group] has started to develop the Bab gas cap reservoir. At Adnoc Gas, we have a funnel of opportunities. Today, we announced the FID on phases two and three of the Rich Gas Development project,” Van Driel said.

    “As part of future opportunities, we may invest in infrastructure specifically for the Bab gas cap project, and that is a pending decision,” he added.

    “We have focused our decision-making on phases two and three of the Rich Gas Development project. With all of these decisions, we do a very thorough assessment. We are not in a hurry to make these decisions. We want to ensure we have the right feed composition, competitive landscape and demand.

    “[Gas] demand in the UAE remains strong. Electricity demand, for example, grows by approximately 3% every year, and we also see a very robust demand profile for gas in export markets,” he told journalists on the call.

    Bab Gas Cap project tendering

    As part of its upstream production growth targets for 2030, Adnoc Group is working to extract gas from four underdeveloped gas cap reservoirs at the Bab onshore field – Thammama A, Thammama B, Thammama F and Thammama H. The Thammama A, B and H reservoirs are estimated to collectively produce 1.45 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas, while output from the Thammama F gas cap is expected to reach 396 million cf/d.

    Existing trains at the Habshan processing complex in Abu Dhabi will be unable to handle the new gas volumes. Adnoc Gas is therefore required to build new facilities to process up to 1.85 billion cf/d of additional raw gas when its parent company starts production from the Bab gas caps.

    Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange-listed Adnoc Gas issued an expression of interest (EoI) to contractors for the main EPC tendering process for the Bab gas cap plant on 10 February. The company set an initial EoI submission deadline of 17 February, which it later extended to 20 February. Contractors submitted responses by that date, MEED reported.

    Following completion of the prequalification phase, contractors that expressed interest formed the following teams to compete in the main contract tendering round, according to sources:

    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) + Samsung E&A (South Korea)
    • Saipem (Italy) + NMDC Energy (UAE)
    • Technip Energies (France) + JGC Corporation (Japan) + Sinopec (China)
    • Tecnimont (Italy) + China Petroleum Engineering and Construction Corporation (CPECC)

    The other three packages are also in the main contract tendering stages, sources have said. Separately, another Adnoc Group subsidiary, Adnoc Onshore, is preparing to issue the main tender for a project involving the tie-in of gas-producing and injection wells at the gas cap reservoirs of Abu Dhabi’s onshore Bab field, which forms part of the wider integrated Bab gas cap development programme.

    Prior to issuing the EoIs for the Bab gas cap development project packages, Adnoc Gas completed an early engagement process with contractors in September and October last year, as MEED previously reported.

    In December last year, Adnoc Gas awarded the front-end engineering and design (feed) works for the Bab gas cap development project – which will increase its gas processing capacity by about 20% – to Australia-based consultancy Worley. The feed contract covers more than 1.2 million man-hours, making it the largest engineering job awarded by Adnoc Gas to date.

    Bab Gas Cap concession

    In addition to Adnoc Gas overseeing the main EPC tendering exercise for the gas processing plant, Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs (SCFEA) awarded concession agreements in June for the development and production of the Bab gas cap reserve in the emirate.

    Adnoc will hold the majority 60% participating interest in the concession. The remaining stakes will be held by France’s TotalEnergies (10%), the UK’s BP (10%), China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) International (8%), Japan Oil Development Company (Jodco) Onshore (5%), China ZhenHua Oil (4%) and Korea GS E&P (3%).

    According to SCFEA, the Bab gas cap development and production concession represents the largest gas cap development project of its kind globally, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said in a report.

    A gas cap refers to the free natural gas that sits above an underlying oil reservoir — in this case, the giant Bab onshore oil field in Abu Dhabi.

    The project, operated by Adnoc Onshore, is expected to have a production capacity of approximately 1.5 billion cf/d of natural gas, equivalent to about 15% of Adnoc Gas’ total operational gas processing capacity.

    “This underscores the strategic significance of the project, which is expected to contribute to the UAE’s gas self-sufficiency, support the continued development of the country’s petrochemicals sector and advance Adnoc’s plans to expand its liquefied natural gas export capacity,” the Abu Dhabi Media Office said in its report.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18281827/main4640.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Adnoc Gas reaffirms $28bn capex for 2026-30

    10 August 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Adnoc Gas, the gas processing subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group), has announced it is executing a capital expenditure (capex) budget of $28bn for 2026 to 2030, reaffirming the spending plan it previously committed to for the period.

    As part of that capex plan, Adnoc Gas said it achieved final investment decision (FID) on the second and third phases of its Rich Gas Development (RGD) programme earlier this year.

    The company awarded $8.2bn of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the second and third phases of the RGD programme. These relate to the construction of a new gas processing train at the Habshan complex and a natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation train at the Ruwais gas processing facility, respectively.

    MEED reported in March that Adnoc Gas had selected the main EPC contractors for both the Habshan 7 gas processing train and the Ruwais NGL Train 5 projects.

    Adnoc Gas officially announced the award of EPC contracts for the two projects, saying it awarded China-based Wison Engineering a $3.9bn contract for RGD phase 2, while Italy’s Tecnimont was selected for the $4.3bn third phase.

    Phase 2 will add a new natural gas processing train at the Habshan facility, “expanding Adnoc Gas’ natural gas processing capacity, enhancing operational flexibility, and supporting the UAE’s expanding downstream and petrochemical sectors”, the company said in a statement.

    Phase 3 will add a new NGL fractionation train at Ruwais, “increasing the recovery of higher-value liquids from rich natural gas for export, strengthening Adnoc Gas’ global customer portfolio”, it said in its statement on 10 August.

    Adnoc Gas also reiterated its $5bn capex for the first phase of the RGD scheme, which is under construction. The company awarded $5bn of engineering, procurement and construction management contracts in three tranches for phase 1 of the RGD in June last year, marking the company’s largest-ever capital investment.

    With all three phases combined, Adnoc Gas has made a total investment of $13.2bn in the RGD programme.

    “We continued investing through the cycle and advancing megaprojects that will define the next phase of Adnoc Gas’ growth, expanding our processing capacity and product volumes,” the company’s CEO, Fatema Al-Nuaimi, said.

    “Together with Ruwais LNG and our wider portfolio of strategic projects, we are executing one of the industry’s most ambitious gas growth programmes,” she said.

    Al-Nuaimi added: “These investments support our upgraded target of 60% [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation] Ebitda growth by 2030, which was previously 40%. Delivering that ambition will see us invest approximately $28bn between 2026 and 2030.

    “We’re able to make these investments because we’re in a strong financial position. What matters here is this: we are reaffirming our dividend policy, we fund this growth programme and we deliver returns to shareholders. That is not an either/or,” she said.

    Second-quarter financial results

    Adnoc Gas detailed its capex plan as part of a media roundtable to discuss its financial results for the second quarter of the year (Q2 2026).

    The company achieved net income of $665m in Q2 2026 – above the upper end of the $400m-$600m guidance range provided in the first quarter – “reflecting strong operational performance in a challenging operating environment. This was supported by resilient margins in the domestic gas business”.

    Supported by its cash flow from operations, the company’s board has approved a quarterly dividend of $940m, payable in September, in line with its commitment to deliver annual dividend growth of 5% through 2030.

    Adnoc Gas remains the largest dividend payer on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX), where it listed in March 2023.

    Additionally, the company said: “Continued disruption to maritime movements through the Strait of Hormuz affected product liftings during the second quarter. Through proactive inventory, logistics and supply-chain management, Adnoc Gas worked closely with customers and partners to mitigate the impact of these disruptions, manage temporary constraints and fulfil commitments wherever possible.”

    For Q3 2026, Adnoc Gas said it expects profit in the range of $600m to $800m, “based on the assumption that maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be disrupted”.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18268452/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Chinese contractor wins Morocco solar plant deal

    10 August 2026

    China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC), a subsidiary of China Communications Construction Company (CCCC), has won a contract to build a solar photovoltaic (PV) power plant in Fez in northern Morocco.

    Known as GreenPower Morocco 4 (GPM4), the project is being developed by Moroccan company GPM Holding through its utility-scale solar subsidiary GPM Parks.

    The project covers engineering design, equipment procurement and installation, construction of an operation and maintenance building, grid connection and commissioning. It also includes upgrades to the associated substation.

    According to CHEC, the completed plant will supply electricity to the local grid, although it did not disclose the project’s capacity or contract value. 

    The project is being developed under Law 13-09, which provides Morocco’s framework for private renewable energy generation.

    According to its website, GPM Holding is also developing another solar PV project called GreenPower Morocco 2 (GPM2). This follows the completion of its first solar project, the 34MW project (GPM1) commissioned in Tangier in 2024. 

    GPM1 was developed by Green Power Morocco, a special purpose vehicle owned by GPM Holding and UAE-based Amea Power. The $30m project covers 75 hectares and includes 91,000 PV panels. It is expected to generate about 66,149MWh a year.

    The project has a 25-year power purchase agreement in place with Amendis, a subsidiary of Veolia Morocco. PowerChina was the main engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor.

    Chinese contractors have previously been involved in other projects in Morocco’s renewable energy sector.

    Shandong Electric Power Construction Company (Sepco 3), a subsidiary of PowerChina, was part of the EPC consortium for the 200MW Noor 2 concentrated solar plants and 150MW Noor 3 concentrated solar power projects at the Noor Ouarzazate complex.

    New contract awards have been limited in Morocco in 2026, although six solar PV plants are now in the execution stage under phases one and two of the 305MW Noor Atlas solar PV programme.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18263680/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Aramco puts out fire at Jizan refinery after Houthi strike

    10 August 2026

    Saudi Aramco said it had extinguished a fire that broke out at its Jizan refinery on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast after the facility was hit in drone strikes by Yemen-based Houthi rebels on 9 August.

    The kingdom’s Ministry of Energy said the fire occurred at an Aramco refinery facility in Jizan and that emergency authorities had completed the necessary procedures to deal with the incident.

    The energy ministry did not say what started the fire, saying only that the incident caused no injuries.

    The Houthi rebels later claimed responsibility for the attack.

    The province of Jizan lies close to Saudi Arabia’s border with Yemen and has repeatedly been targeted by the Houthis in attacks on the kingdom’s energy infrastructure.

    The strike on the Jizan refinery was the second attack on the facility by the Houthis in as many weeks. Aramco shut the refinery on 27 July following a similar drone strike, which, according to media reports, damaged the integrated gasification combined-cycle unit and tank farm at the complex.

    On a call with investors to discuss Aramco’s second-quarter results, CEO Amin Nasser said recent attacks on the company’s facilities in the world’s top oil-exporting country had caused some disruption to production, but that he was confident operations could be restored quickly. He said the attacks had had no material operational or financial impact.

    Jizan refinery complex

    Saudi Aramco’s sprawling Jizan refinery complex entered operations in 2021.

    Aramco undertook the estimated $16bn-plus project in late 2010. The scheme consists of a refinery with an output capacity of 400,000 barrels a day (b/d), a major marine terminal and a 4GW combined-cycle power plant in Baish, in Saudi Arabia’s southwestern Jizan region.

    The Jizan refinery covers an area of 12 square kilometres. The complex processes Arabian Heavy and Arabian Medium crude grades to produce 80 million b/d of gasoline, 250 million b/d of diesel and more than 1 million tonnes a year of petrochemical products such as benzene and paraxylene.

    A multiple-pier marine terminal supports the supply of crude oil from oil fields located mainly in the kingdom’s Eastern Province to the refinery, as well as the export of surplus refined products to overseas markets. The terminal has been designed to accommodate very large crude carriers.

    A 4,000MW combined-cycle power plant uses approximately 90,000 b/d of vacuum residue from the refinery to generate electricity, hydrogen and water for the refinery, while conveying excess power to the national grid.

    The hydrocracker unit comprises two parallel trains with a combined capacity of 54,500 b/d. The diesel hydrotreater plant comprises two trains, each with a capacity of 87,500 b/d.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18262347/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Shamal picks Dutco for Dubai Zoo site homes

    10 August 2026

    Dubai-based Shamal Holding has awarded local contractor Dutco Construction the main construction works contract for a low-rise residential project on the site of the former Dubai Zoo in Jumeirah 1.

    The project will comprise 90 low-rise homes and is designed as a residential leasing community that will remain under Shamal’s ownership, with all homes offered for premium leasing.

    The development will retain mature trees from the former zoo and is planned around shared courtyards, landscaped open spaces and a central park. Residents will have access to a clubhouse, wellness area, children’s play area, family pool, lounge and gym.

    The architect is DXB Lab. The local H&H is the development manager for the project.

    Dutco has previously worked with Shamal on infrastructure elements of the Dubai Harbour and Dubai Harbour Marinas developments.

    Shamal’s wider real estate portfolio includes the Naia Island, Dubai Harbour and Nad Al-Sheba Gardens developments. The company also holds hospitality and leisure assets, including partnerships with Jumeirah, Hilton and Baccarat, and operates attractions such as Skydive Dubai and Deep Dive Dubai.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18262386/main.png
    Colin Foreman