meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi banks track more modest growth path

15 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> Riyadh rides power projects surge
> Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

Surging oil prices may have imbued the kingdom with a renewed sense of economic purpose, but the situation for banks is more complicated.

Economic conditions – notably the higher interest rate climate – have made life more challenging for lenders. They have been acquainting themselves with normality in 2023, after two post-Covid years in which the increase in profit yields averaged 30 per cent.

This year, Saudi bank metrics are solid rather than spectacular. Second-quarter net profits for the country’s 10 listed banks declined by 0.3 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms to SR17.4bn ($4.64bn), according to figures from Alvarez & Marsal.

Fitch Ratings expects average sector financing growth to slow this year, although remaining above the GCC average of a forecast 5-6 per cent.

According to Junaid Ansari, head of Investment Strategy & Research at Kamco Invest, Saudi Arabia still recorded the strongest growth in outstanding credit facilities during the second quarter of 2023 at 2.5 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms, while growth in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman was below 1 per cent.

Growth drivers

Aggregate credit facilities in Saudi Arabia grew 5.2 per cent on the start of the year to reach SR2.5tn ($670bn).

“Real estate was the biggest sector in terms of total lending in Saudi Arabia, accounting for 30 per cent of total bank credit facilities and 61 per cent of personal facilities during the second quarter,” says Ansari, citing Saudi central bank data from Bloomberg. 

“Lending growth at Saudi banks is still high, albeit decreasing,” says Anton Lopatin, senior director at Fitch Ratings.

“Fitch is forecasting it to be 12 per cent for the whole year 2023, compared to 14 per cent last year. This is partially because mortgage financing affordability has decreased due to higher interest rates and also state subsidies have been tightened.”

Strong demand for mortgage financing, underpinned by a state subsidy programme, has supported the financing growth of Saudi banks in recent years, says Fitch.

Mortgage financing reached SR567bn ($151bn) at the end of the first quarter of 2023, with a compound average growth rate of 35 per cent over the past five years.

But Fitch sees financing growth moderating in Saudi Arabia.

“In the first six months of this year, deposit growth was above lending growth and that wasn’t the case in 2022,” says Lopatin, who points out that if banks’ funding base is growing faster than financing, that reduces pressure on liquidity.

Liquidity levels

Broadly speaking, liquidity is still healthy in Saudi Arabia. Low-cost current account and savings account (Casa) deposits in Saudi Arabia are still among the highest in the GCC, and there is a strong cash-rich government behind the banks in case of need.

After some liquidity tightening in 2022, the Central Bank (Sama) placed SR50bn ($13.3bn) of deposits in the banking sector to reduce the pressure.

“This is a Saudi-specific issue, reflecting that banks’ financing books are growing faster than deposits, and that is putting pressure on liquidity,” says Lopatin.

Casa deposits remain high in the kingdom, even though rising interest rates have led some customers to shift into term deposits. In the first quarter of 2023, Casa deposits still accounted for 56 per cent of total deposits, whereas two years ago the figure was 65 per cent.

“One reason for this [9 per cent decline] is the higher interest rates, but it’s also because banks have been competing for funding to support their growth. There is a huge increase in the cost of funding, but the margin is still very healthy, and the average net interest margin for the first quarter was 3.2 per cent,” says Lopatin.

Despite the higher cost of borrowing – and the attendant risk that this could force clients to default on loans – this should be manageable for most lenders.

“We believe that with adequate controls and policies, asset quality is not a concern at present for the Saudi banking sector,” says Kamco’s Ansari.

“The cost of risk for the sector has been consistently declining over the last quarters and stood at 44 bps, one of the lowest over the last several quarters. This also remains well below the GCC average of 66 bps.”

Loan health

Another source of comfort for Saudi banks is that the higher interest rates are applied to new loans while older loans remain at pre-decided fixed rates.

As a result, non-performing loans (NPLs) are not expected to see any steep increase in the coming quarters – especially, notes Ansari, in light of expectations of rate cuts from next year.

“In the first quarter of 2023, the average NPL ratio was stable at around 2 per cent, and the cost of risk was about 50 bps, which is rather low,” says Lopatin.

In construction and real estate, this could become an issue if higher interest rates result in higher borrowing costs for these companies.

“Not all of them operate with very healthy margins. Thus, their debt service capability will deteriorate. But as of now, we do not see significant upticks in cost of risk or sector average NPL ratios,” says Lopatin.

If Saudi banks are forced to reduce their exposure to real estate, there should be other opportunities for them to grow loan books – not least the Vision 2030-linked series of gigaprojects looking for support. Some of the Saudi banks whose balance sheets have expanded following mergers are now better placed to fund infrastructure projects.

According to the IMF, while mortgage growth has recently moderated, demand for project-related and consumer loans is expected to remain strong, helping offset the impact on profitability from rising funding costs linked to higher policy rates.

This may take a while to materialise. “As of now, we see only moderate financing for companies participating in the execution of the new gigaprojects in Saudi Arabia, but over the longer term, this will support banks’ lending growth,” says Lopatin.

There are other benefits to supporting these projects, not least with the government being the ultimate guarantor, which is positive from an asset quality perspective. 

With a strengthening oil price expected to underpin a Saudi economic renaissance, there should be many more opportunities for growth-oriented Saudi banks to get their teeth into.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11139548/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Taqa raises $750m to finance water projects

    30 July 2026

    Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) has issued a $750m five-year blue bond to finance sustainable water and wastewater management projects.

    The company said the transaction is the largest blue bond issuance in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region. It is also the largest blue bond issued by an integrated power and water utility globally.

    Issuing the bond allows Taqa to raise money from investors specifically to support water-related environmental projects. These can include desalination, wastewater treatment, water recycling and reuse, and infrastructure that improves water efficiency.

    It is the first blue bond issued under Taqa’s Green and Blue Finance Framework, and follows another blue financing transaction in the UAE earlier this year.

    On 8 January, Dubai-based Emirates NBD bank announced the completion of a $1bn dual-tranche sustainable bond issuance, comprising a $300m blue tranche with a three-year tenor and a $700m green tranche with a five-year tenor.

    Emirates NBD said at the time that the $300m tranche was the largest blue bond issued in the UAE and GCC. The proceeds are intended to support marine conservation and sustainable water projects, while proceeds from the green tranche will finance green initiatives.

    Taqa launched its original Green Finance Framework in 2023 and updated it in 2026 to include blue financing instruments. The latest issuance takes its total green and blue labelled bond issuances to $2.6bn since 2023.

    The Taqa financing also comes as the company expands and modernises its water infrastructure. Taqa is targeting reverse-osmosis technology for 66% of its desalination capacity by 2030, up from about 40% in 2025.

    In June, Taqa awarded a contract for the construction of a 1-million-cubic-metre emergency lagoon in Abu Dhabi. The project will be developed in two phases.

    Phase one has a capacity of 500,000 cubic metres and is planned to be completed within 18 months of the contract award.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17845953/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • UAE renewables firm secures $375m in financing

    30 July 2026

    Positive Zero, the UAE-based renewable energy firm, has announced the successful closing of a financing facility of up to $375m.

    The long-term financing was arranged by Paris-headquartered Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking (Natixis CIB) and Saudi Arabia-based The Arab Energy Fund.

    Natixis CIB also acted as financial adviser, facility agent, security agent and green loan coordinator for the transaction.

    “The non-recourse financing is the first transaction of its kind in the region for a diversified portfolio of decentralised infrastructure assets, including distributed solar power generation, energy efficiency and clean mobility solutions,” Positive Zero said in a statement.

    “The financing will provide substantial long-term capital to support Positive Zero’s continued expansion in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar, funding the growth of its distributed infrastructure portfolio, capital expenditure programme and strategic development initiatives,” the Dubai-based firm said.

    The new debt facility secured by Positive Zero builds on US-based BlackRock’s investment of up to $400m in the company in 2023, “further strengthening the company’s capital structure and supporting the next phase of its growth”.

    Positive Zero has the largest distributed solar capacity in the region with more than 500MW in operations and under construction, avoiding more than 450,000 metric tonnes a year of carbon emissions.

    The company has also saved over 100 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) in energy consumption across its client portfolio through its energy-efficiency solutions.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17845491/main3835.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • US-Saudi consortium to build $5bn refinery outside Strait of Hormuz

    30 July 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    A consortium of privately owned US and Saudi companies has announced an investment commitment of $5bn to build an integrated oil refining, storage and export facility outside the volatile Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.

    After three years of evaluating sites across the Gulf, the consortium has shortlisted three GCC locations beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Discussions have advanced over the past two years, with a preferred site expected to be selected by the end of 2026.

    The consortium, Mera Oil, comprises Fort Worth, Texas-based MWG Enterprises; the US-based Patel Family Office; and PWS, an associate company of Saudi Arabia’s AHQ Group.

    Mera Oil said it remains open to alternative proposals that meet its infrastructure, resilience and development requirements.

    The proposed project will feature a 200,000-barrel-a-day refinery, deepwater port connectivity, large-scale crude and refined-product storage, and marine export facilities.

    A pre-feasibility study covering refinery design, logistics, capital requirements and execution planning is at an advanced stage.

    Once a host jurisdiction is confirmed, the project will proceed to detailed site assessments and engineering design, with mechanical completion targeted for end-2029, followed by commissioning and the start of commercial operations.

    The consortium plans to focus on producing high-specification middle distillates, including ultra-low sulphur diesel and jet fuel, for selected international markets.

    The project is expected to occupy about 1,200-1,500 acres of port-connected industrial land and could create up to 3,000 direct jobs, and around 15,000 indirect and induced jobs, during construction and operations.

    Mera Oil is also progressing discussions with feedstock suppliers and expects financing to include sponsor equity, sovereign and institutional investment, project finance, export-credit support and sharia-compliant funding structures.

    “Designed as a route-resilient energy hub, the development aims to strengthen regional manufacturing, logistics, technical expertise and energy security,” Mera Oil said.

    The first phase of the planned investment will “incorporate energy-efficient refining technologies, emissions-control systems, and potential future capabilities including sustainable aviation fuel co-processing and carbon management.”

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17843946/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Local contractor to build nine Bahrain substations

    30 July 2026

     

    Bahrain’s Electricity & Water Authority (EWA) has awarded the local Al-Kooheji Electrical a contract to build nine 66kV substations across the kingdom, according to a source.

    The project is estimated to be worth $110m and is intended to support rising electricity demand from Bahrain’s domestic, commercial and industrial sectors.

    Four local contractors submitted commercial bids for the contract in January. The bidders were:

    • Nass Contracting ($28.4m)
    • Poullaides Construction Company ($31.7m)
    • Mohammed Jalal Contracting ($32.4m)
    • Al-Kooheji Electrical ($34m)

    The substations will be located at South Hidd Industrial, Mondelez, Alba Downstream Park, Muharraq North, Hamala West, Bani Jamra, Hoora, Maqabah East and West Riffa Club.

    The scope includes the construction of the nine substations and control rooms, as well as the installation of transformers, switchgear and feeders connecting the facilities to the grid.

    It also covers communication cabling, monitoring systems, safety and security systems, and associated civil and structural works.

    As MEED understands, the substations are scheduled to be commissioned in stages. Two are planned for 2026, followed by four in 2027 and the remaining three in 2028.

    Serbia’s Energoprojekt Entel was appointed as consultant for the project in April 2025. The consultant’s contract was valued at about $460,000.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17834380/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • CB&I’s newly acquired unit wins Abu Dhabi wells contract

    30 July 2026

    US-based Chicago Bridge & Iron (CB&I) has announced that its Asset Solutions business – acquired earlier this year from UK-headquartered contractor Petrofac – has won a hydrocarbon well services contract in Abu Dhabi.

    The contract was awarded by Cosmo E&P Albahriya, a wholly owned UAE-based subsidiary of Japan’s Cosmo Energy Holdings Company (Cosmo).

    Under the well engineering services contract, CB&I Asset Solutions will support drilling, engineering, planning and operational activities for offshore Block 4 in Abu Dhabi.

    Cosmo secured 100% exploration rights for offshore Block 4 – covering 4,865 square kilometres of Gulf waters northwest of Abu Dhabi city – in February 2021.

    The block was offered in Abu Dhabi’s second hydrocarbons block competitive bidding round, launched by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) in May 2019.

    “The award strengthens Asset Solutions’ position in the Middle East and solidifies new relationships with key regional operators. With shared goals of prioritising safe, stable and environmentally conscious production, CB&I’s UAE-based team will draw on its local and global experience of delivering innovative well engineering solutions,” the Texas-based CB&I said in a statement.

    ALSO READ: Abu Dhabi awards production licences for hydrocarbon blocks

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17834142/main4710.jpg
    Indrajit Sen