meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi banks track more modest growth path

15 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> Riyadh rides power projects surge
> Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

Surging oil prices may have imbued the kingdom with a renewed sense of economic purpose, but the situation for banks is more complicated.

Economic conditions – notably the higher interest rate climate – have made life more challenging for lenders. They have been acquainting themselves with normality in 2023, after two post-Covid years in which the increase in profit yields averaged 30 per cent.

This year, Saudi bank metrics are solid rather than spectacular. Second-quarter net profits for the country’s 10 listed banks declined by 0.3 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms to SR17.4bn ($4.64bn), according to figures from Alvarez & Marsal.

Fitch Ratings expects average sector financing growth to slow this year, although remaining above the GCC average of a forecast 5-6 per cent.

According to Junaid Ansari, head of Investment Strategy & Research at Kamco Invest, Saudi Arabia still recorded the strongest growth in outstanding credit facilities during the second quarter of 2023 at 2.5 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms, while growth in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman was below 1 per cent.

Growth drivers

Aggregate credit facilities in Saudi Arabia grew 5.2 per cent on the start of the year to reach SR2.5tn ($670bn).

“Real estate was the biggest sector in terms of total lending in Saudi Arabia, accounting for 30 per cent of total bank credit facilities and 61 per cent of personal facilities during the second quarter,” says Ansari, citing Saudi central bank data from Bloomberg. 

“Lending growth at Saudi banks is still high, albeit decreasing,” says Anton Lopatin, senior director at Fitch Ratings.

“Fitch is forecasting it to be 12 per cent for the whole year 2023, compared to 14 per cent last year. This is partially because mortgage financing affordability has decreased due to higher interest rates and also state subsidies have been tightened.”

Strong demand for mortgage financing, underpinned by a state subsidy programme, has supported the financing growth of Saudi banks in recent years, says Fitch.

Mortgage financing reached SR567bn ($151bn) at the end of the first quarter of 2023, with a compound average growth rate of 35 per cent over the past five years.

But Fitch sees financing growth moderating in Saudi Arabia.

“In the first six months of this year, deposit growth was above lending growth and that wasn’t the case in 2022,” says Lopatin, who points out that if banks’ funding base is growing faster than financing, that reduces pressure on liquidity.

Liquidity levels

Broadly speaking, liquidity is still healthy in Saudi Arabia. Low-cost current account and savings account (Casa) deposits in Saudi Arabia are still among the highest in the GCC, and there is a strong cash-rich government behind the banks in case of need.

After some liquidity tightening in 2022, the Central Bank (Sama) placed SR50bn ($13.3bn) of deposits in the banking sector to reduce the pressure.

“This is a Saudi-specific issue, reflecting that banks’ financing books are growing faster than deposits, and that is putting pressure on liquidity,” says Lopatin.

Casa deposits remain high in the kingdom, even though rising interest rates have led some customers to shift into term deposits. In the first quarter of 2023, Casa deposits still accounted for 56 per cent of total deposits, whereas two years ago the figure was 65 per cent.

“One reason for this [9 per cent decline] is the higher interest rates, but it’s also because banks have been competing for funding to support their growth. There is a huge increase in the cost of funding, but the margin is still very healthy, and the average net interest margin for the first quarter was 3.2 per cent,” says Lopatin.

Despite the higher cost of borrowing – and the attendant risk that this could force clients to default on loans – this should be manageable for most lenders.

“We believe that with adequate controls and policies, asset quality is not a concern at present for the Saudi banking sector,” says Kamco’s Ansari.

“The cost of risk for the sector has been consistently declining over the last quarters and stood at 44 bps, one of the lowest over the last several quarters. This also remains well below the GCC average of 66 bps.”

Loan health

Another source of comfort for Saudi banks is that the higher interest rates are applied to new loans while older loans remain at pre-decided fixed rates.

As a result, non-performing loans (NPLs) are not expected to see any steep increase in the coming quarters – especially, notes Ansari, in light of expectations of rate cuts from next year.

“In the first quarter of 2023, the average NPL ratio was stable at around 2 per cent, and the cost of risk was about 50 bps, which is rather low,” says Lopatin.

In construction and real estate, this could become an issue if higher interest rates result in higher borrowing costs for these companies.

“Not all of them operate with very healthy margins. Thus, their debt service capability will deteriorate. But as of now, we do not see significant upticks in cost of risk or sector average NPL ratios,” says Lopatin.

If Saudi banks are forced to reduce their exposure to real estate, there should be other opportunities for them to grow loan books – not least the Vision 2030-linked series of gigaprojects looking for support. Some of the Saudi banks whose balance sheets have expanded following mergers are now better placed to fund infrastructure projects.

According to the IMF, while mortgage growth has recently moderated, demand for project-related and consumer loans is expected to remain strong, helping offset the impact on profitability from rising funding costs linked to higher policy rates.

This may take a while to materialise. “As of now, we see only moderate financing for companies participating in the execution of the new gigaprojects in Saudi Arabia, but over the longer term, this will support banks’ lending growth,” says Lopatin.

There are other benefits to supporting these projects, not least with the government being the ultimate guarantor, which is positive from an asset quality perspective. 

With a strengthening oil price expected to underpin a Saudi economic renaissance, there should be many more opportunities for growth-oriented Saudi banks to get their teeth into.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11139548/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Contractor wins $197m Doha infrastructure works

    6 November 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has awarded an estimated QR722m ($197m) contract to develop roads and infrastructure north of Al-Rifaa Street in Doha.

    The contract was awarded to local firm Tadmur Contracting Company.

    Six other contractors submitted bids: 

    • Qatar Trading & Contracting Group ($244m)
    • Iris Construction Tourism Industry & Trade ($259m)
    • Lotus Trading & Contracting ($260m)
    • Generic Engineering Technologies & Contracting ($261m)
    • Alghanim International / National Industrial Contracting ($268m)
    • Hamad Bin Khalid Contracting Company ($281m)

    The scope of work covers the construction of more than 34 kilometres of roads, dedicated plot developments, site clearance, backfill and earthworks.

    The package also requires the installation of surface and groundwater drainage systems, a foul-water drainage network and treated sewage effluent lines.

    In addition, the contractor will deliver a dedicated pumping station, an emergency flood area pond, 3,735 car parking spaces, road cross-sectional elements and verge parking bays.

    Secondary infrastructure works include electrical distribution, water mains, utility lines, manholes, gully pots and house connections, along with kerbing, road pavement works, landscaping, street lighting, road markings and directional signage.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21204827/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Stakeholders aim to sign Iraq pipeline deal by year end

    6 November 2026

     

    Stakeholders expect a key contract to be signed before the end of the year for the development of a major oil export pipeline network in Iraq, according to industry sources.

    Iraq and Syria’s governments, state-owned oil companies and a consortium led by Qatar’s UCC are currently discussing the terms.

    If all parties agree to the proposed deal, the UCC-led coalition will become the selected developer responsible for tendering engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the project.

    The consortium includes US-based Chevron, the investment company TI Capital and France’s TotalEnergies.

    The proposed plan will use a fast-track framework to bring the pipelines online as quickly as possible.

    One source said: “The plan that is being discussed is highly unusual, because it is such a large-scale pipeline project and it would be brought online in a relatively short timeframe.”

    A team from UCC is currently in Iraq for meetings with government officials to discuss the project, one source said.

    The project will be focused on four pipeline packages:

    • Basra to Najaf
    • Najaf to Haditha
    • Haditha to Fish Khapour
    • Haditha to Banias Port in Syria

    In July, Iraq’s cabinet approved state-owned Basra Oil Company signing a ​heads of agreement and a non-disclosure agreement with the UCC-led consortium to explore possible future oil pipeline projects.

    Under the terms of the agreement, the consortium is preparing technical and financial feasibility studies for strategic export pipeline projects.

    Also in July, US-based KBR was awarded a consultancy contract for the section of pipeline due to extend from Basra to Haditha.

    In April, Iraq announced the allocation of $1.5bn for the Basra-Haditha route, while the larger scheme is estimated at around $5bn.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21181262/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Taqa shortlists 17 contractors for Mirfa-Liwa scheme

    6 November 2026

     

    Up to 17 contractors have been invited to submit bids for a major water transmission and distribution scheme serving Mirfa, Madinat Zayed and Liwa in Abu Dhabi, a source close to the project has confirmed to MEED.

    The project, originally estimated to cost $775m, comprises a water transmission system from Mirfa, alongside distribution networks serving farms and settlements in Abu Dhabi’s western region.

    In October, MEED exclusively reported that a request for proposals had been issued, with bids due on 5 January 2027, following an extension from the initial deadline of 11 November 2026.

    The Mirfa-Liwa scheme has been in procurement for several years and was previously tendered in December 2024 as an engineering, procurement and construction scheme, divided between transmission and distribution works.

    As MEED understands, it was recently re-tendered under a design, build and operate model, extending the contractor’s responsibilities to operating the infrastructure after construction.

    According to sources, the full list of contractors invited to bid for the tender includes:

    • Afcons Infrastructure (India)
    • Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (Saudi Arabia)
    • China Machinery Engineering Corporation (China)
    • China National Chemical Engineering (China)
    • China Tiesiju Civil Engineering Group (China)
    • Danway Electrical & Mechanical Engineering (UAE)
    • Emarat Aloula Contracting (UAE)
    • FCC Aqualia (Spain)
    • Gulf Contractors Company (UAE)
    • Hydropower Energy & General Construction (UAE)
    • Jereh Oil & Gas Engineering Corporation (China)
    • Mapa (Turkiye)
    • Nesma & Partners Contracting Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Orascom Construction (Egypt)
    • Power Construction Corporation of China (China)
    • Tecton Engineering & Construction (UAE)
    • Tristar Engineering & Construction (UAE)

    According to details seen by MEED, the scope includes a pumping station at Mirfa with a capacity of 128 million imperial gallons a day, approximately 125 kilometres of transmission pipelines to Muzairah, with branches to Madinat Zayed and Liwa Summit, and storage tanks at the three locations.

    The distribution network is divided into four geographic clusters covering Liwa East, Liwa West, Madinat Zayed and Seih Al-Kheir. The works include associated pipelines, pumping stations and storage facilities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21181223/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Gulf conflict cuts Emirates Group profit by 66%

    6 November 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai’s Emirates Group made a profit before tax of AED4.1bn ($1.1bn) in the first half of its 2026-27 financial year, 66% less than the AED12.2bn it made in the same period last year.

    The six months to 30 September were the group’s first full half-year since military activity disrupted commercial air traffic across the Gulf on 28 February. Group revenue fell 12% to AED66.2bn ($18bn), from AED75.4bn a year earlier. Profit after tax fell 66% to AED3.6bn ($1bn).

    Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) fell 41% to AED12.5bn ($3.4bn).

    The results follow a record 2025-26 financial year. The group made a profit before tax of AED24.4bn in that year, on revenue of AED150.5bn.

    “It has been a demanding six months, and once again our business model and our people stood up to the test,” said Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, chairman and chief executive of Emirates Airline and Group. “Customer demand held firm and our cargo operations made a strong contribution, keeping revenue and cash levels healthy even as global jet fuel prices doubled against the same period last year.”

    Airline performance

    Emirates airline’s profit before tax fell 68% to AED3.7bn ($1bn), compared with AED11.4bn a year earlier. Its revenue fell 13% to AED56.9bn ($15.5bn). The airline carried 21.8 million passengers, 22% fewer than a year earlier. Capacity measured in available seat kilometres fell 17%, and the passenger seat factor dropped to 72% from 79.5%.

    Cargo partly offset the drop in passenger numbers. Emirates SkyCargo carried 1.2 million tonnes, 1% less than a year earlier, but its revenue rose 52%. The conflict reduced the airfreight capacity available on the market, and disruption to shipping pushed shippers towards air transport.

    Before hedging gains, fuel costs rose 60%, even though the airline uplifted 12% less fuel. Gains of AED7.1bn ($1.9bn) from fuel hedging cut the net increase in fuel costs to 13%. Fuel accounted for 34% of operating costs.

    On 30 September, Emirates was operating 91% of its pre-disruption network, serving 150 airports in 78 countries and territories. On 31 March, it had been flying 58% of its passenger capacity to 122 destinations in 65 countries.

    Fleet investment

    The airline received nine Airbus A350s and five Boeing 777 freighters during the period. Its fleet grew to 289 aircraft, from 277 on 31 March. Emirates is continuing its cabin retrofit programme, a planned investment of more than $7bn. It refurbished 12 aircraft in the first half. In May, it broke ground on a $5.1bn engineering and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facility at Al-Maktoum International airport, which is expected to be completed in the mid-2030s.

    The group’s cash position was AED54.1bn ($14.7bn) on 30 September, down from a record AED59.6bn on 31 March. The group said it had used its reserves to make pre-delivery payments for aircraft and to service existing debt. It also paid the remaining AED2bn of the AED3.5bn dividend declared for 2025-26 to its owner, the Investment Corporation of Dubai.

    Ground services and travel company dnata made a profit before tax of AED410m ($112m), down 51%. Its revenue fell 7% to AED11bn ($3bn), and the group said dnata’s international businesses helped offset weaker traffic in the UAE.

    The group’s workforce fell 2% to 128,237 people.

    “We enter the second half of our 2026-27 financial year with measured optimism,” said Sheikh Ahmed.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21198114/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • King Salman airport tenders roads and utilities package

    6 November 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s King Salman International Airport Development Company (KSIADC) has tendered the Zone C1+C2 roads, bridges and utility networks package for King Salman International airport (KSIA) in Riyadh.

    The tender was issued on 26 October, and bids are due by 6 December.

    The request for proposals covers the procurement, construction, testing and commissioning of civil infrastructure supporting Terminal 6, alongside the existing Terminals 1-5.

    The scope includes upgrades to Airport Road 539, which runs west of Terminals 1-5, and to part of Mohamed Bin Faraj Road 5333, west of Junction 6.

    It also includes new roads, ramps, service roads, and signalised at-grade junctions. An additional access road will connect the Terminal 6 site offices to Road 5333.

    Structures will include the Junction 6 and Terminal 6 bridges, retaining walls and reinforced-soil structures.

    The contractor will also construct the central ground services equipment (GSE) bridge. Before construction begins, the contractor must validate the design, complete any outstanding elements – including mechanically stabilised earth walls, approach slabs, drainage and lighting – and secure the required authority approvals.

    Dry utilities will comprise high- and extra-high-voltage containment, a 13.8kV medium-voltage network with package substations, low-voltage distribution and street lighting, and security-surveillance systems.

    Wet utilities will include potable water, fire water, irrigation water, treated sewage effluent, district cooling and wastewater networks. Wastewater pipes will range from 200mm u-PVC gravity lines to 1,700mm glass-reinforced plastic mains.

    The stormwater network will include channels, culverts, ponds and pipes ranging from 400mm to 1,400mm in diameter. Crossings will be constructed using open-cut excavation, horizontal directional drilling or microtunneling.

    Utilities serving the operational terminals will be diverted on a design-and-build basis. Enabling works will include earthworks and the relocation of the security fence and trees. The contractor will also demolish a temporary car park, existing bridges and a sewage pumping station.

    Optional works comprise two design-and-build elements that will proceed only at the client’s instruction.

    The first is the south GSE bridge. The second is an approximately 1,400-metre, multi-lane access road to the Terminal 6 Transportation Hub, including bridges, underpasses, ramps and tunnels, as well as provisions for future Wadi Loop utilities and structures.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21176175/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal