meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi banks track more modest growth path

15 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> Riyadh rides power projects surge
> Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

Surging oil prices may have imbued the kingdom with a renewed sense of economic purpose, but the situation for banks is more complicated.

Economic conditions – notably the higher interest rate climate – have made life more challenging for lenders. They have been acquainting themselves with normality in 2023, after two post-Covid years in which the increase in profit yields averaged 30 per cent.

This year, Saudi bank metrics are solid rather than spectacular. Second-quarter net profits for the country’s 10 listed banks declined by 0.3 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms to SR17.4bn ($4.64bn), according to figures from Alvarez & Marsal.

Fitch Ratings expects average sector financing growth to slow this year, although remaining above the GCC average of a forecast 5-6 per cent.

According to Junaid Ansari, head of Investment Strategy & Research at Kamco Invest, Saudi Arabia still recorded the strongest growth in outstanding credit facilities during the second quarter of 2023 at 2.5 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms, while growth in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman was below 1 per cent.

Growth drivers

Aggregate credit facilities in Saudi Arabia grew 5.2 per cent on the start of the year to reach SR2.5tn ($670bn).

“Real estate was the biggest sector in terms of total lending in Saudi Arabia, accounting for 30 per cent of total bank credit facilities and 61 per cent of personal facilities during the second quarter,” says Ansari, citing Saudi central bank data from Bloomberg. 

“Lending growth at Saudi banks is still high, albeit decreasing,” says Anton Lopatin, senior director at Fitch Ratings.

“Fitch is forecasting it to be 12 per cent for the whole year 2023, compared to 14 per cent last year. This is partially because mortgage financing affordability has decreased due to higher interest rates and also state subsidies have been tightened.”

Strong demand for mortgage financing, underpinned by a state subsidy programme, has supported the financing growth of Saudi banks in recent years, says Fitch.

Mortgage financing reached SR567bn ($151bn) at the end of the first quarter of 2023, with a compound average growth rate of 35 per cent over the past five years.

But Fitch sees financing growth moderating in Saudi Arabia.

“In the first six months of this year, deposit growth was above lending growth and that wasn’t the case in 2022,” says Lopatin, who points out that if banks’ funding base is growing faster than financing, that reduces pressure on liquidity.

Liquidity levels

Broadly speaking, liquidity is still healthy in Saudi Arabia. Low-cost current account and savings account (Casa) deposits in Saudi Arabia are still among the highest in the GCC, and there is a strong cash-rich government behind the banks in case of need.

After some liquidity tightening in 2022, the Central Bank (Sama) placed SR50bn ($13.3bn) of deposits in the banking sector to reduce the pressure.

“This is a Saudi-specific issue, reflecting that banks’ financing books are growing faster than deposits, and that is putting pressure on liquidity,” says Lopatin.

Casa deposits remain high in the kingdom, even though rising interest rates have led some customers to shift into term deposits. In the first quarter of 2023, Casa deposits still accounted for 56 per cent of total deposits, whereas two years ago the figure was 65 per cent.

“One reason for this [9 per cent decline] is the higher interest rates, but it’s also because banks have been competing for funding to support their growth. There is a huge increase in the cost of funding, but the margin is still very healthy, and the average net interest margin for the first quarter was 3.2 per cent,” says Lopatin.

Despite the higher cost of borrowing – and the attendant risk that this could force clients to default on loans – this should be manageable for most lenders.

“We believe that with adequate controls and policies, asset quality is not a concern at present for the Saudi banking sector,” says Kamco’s Ansari.

“The cost of risk for the sector has been consistently declining over the last quarters and stood at 44 bps, one of the lowest over the last several quarters. This also remains well below the GCC average of 66 bps.”

Loan health

Another source of comfort for Saudi banks is that the higher interest rates are applied to new loans while older loans remain at pre-decided fixed rates.

As a result, non-performing loans (NPLs) are not expected to see any steep increase in the coming quarters – especially, notes Ansari, in light of expectations of rate cuts from next year.

“In the first quarter of 2023, the average NPL ratio was stable at around 2 per cent, and the cost of risk was about 50 bps, which is rather low,” says Lopatin.

In construction and real estate, this could become an issue if higher interest rates result in higher borrowing costs for these companies.

“Not all of them operate with very healthy margins. Thus, their debt service capability will deteriorate. But as of now, we do not see significant upticks in cost of risk or sector average NPL ratios,” says Lopatin.

If Saudi banks are forced to reduce their exposure to real estate, there should be other opportunities for them to grow loan books – not least the Vision 2030-linked series of gigaprojects looking for support. Some of the Saudi banks whose balance sheets have expanded following mergers are now better placed to fund infrastructure projects.

According to the IMF, while mortgage growth has recently moderated, demand for project-related and consumer loans is expected to remain strong, helping offset the impact on profitability from rising funding costs linked to higher policy rates.

This may take a while to materialise. “As of now, we see only moderate financing for companies participating in the execution of the new gigaprojects in Saudi Arabia, but over the longer term, this will support banks’ lending growth,” says Lopatin.

There are other benefits to supporting these projects, not least with the government being the ultimate guarantor, which is positive from an asset quality perspective. 

With a strengthening oil price expected to underpin a Saudi economic renaissance, there should be many more opportunities for growth-oriented Saudi banks to get their teeth into.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11139548/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Partners launch feed-to-EPC contest for Duqm petchems project

    27 April 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Omani state energy conglomerate OQ Group and Kuwait Petroleum International (KPI), the overseas subsidiary of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, have initiated a feed-to-EPC competition among contractors to develop a major petrochemicals complex at Duqm.

    Under a feed-to-EPC model, the project operator selects contractors to carry out front-end engineering and design (feed). It then awards the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to the contractor with the most competitive feed proposal, while compensating the other contestants for their work.

    OQ8, the 50:50 joint venture of OQ and KPI, is understood to have issued the tender for the Duqm petrochemicals project’s feed-to-EPC competition in mid-March, with a deadline of 6 May for contractors to submit proposals, sources told MEED.

    Several local and international contractors based in Oman are believed to be participating in the competition, according to sources.

    OQ Group CEO Ashraf Bin Hamad Al-Maamari and KPI’s CEO Shafi Bin Taleb Al-Ajmi signed an agreement on 3 February, during the Kuwait Oil & Gas Show and Conference, to develop a major petrochemicals-producing complex in Oman’s Duqm. The parties did not disclose details at the time.

    ALSO READ: Duqm petrochemicals revival provides fillip to Gulf projects market

    The agreement represented a significant step forward in Oman and Kuwait’s long-held plans to jointly develop a petrochemicals complex next to the existing Duqm refinery, which will benefit from favourable feedstock access and strong cost competitiveness.

    The planned facility will also benefit from  in Al-Wusta governorate, along Oman’s Arabian Sea coastline.

    OQ8 had struggled to make meaningful progress on the Duqm petrochemicals project since the plan was conceived as early as 2018, for a variety of reasons.

    The original plan for the Duqm petrochemicals facility, estimated at $7bn, centred on a mixed-feed steam cracker with a capacity to produce 1.6 million tonnes a year (t/y) of ethylene. The project also included a polypropylene (PP) plant with a capacity of 280,000 t/y and a high-density polyethylene (HDPE) plant with a capacity of 480,000 t/y.

    The complex was also expected to include an aromatics plant, as well as storage facilities for naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

    The project’s prospects were temporarily boosted when Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) expressed interest in investing by signing a non-binding memorandum of understanding with OQ in December 2021.

    Reuters reported in December that Sabic was withdrawing from the project, leaving OQ to look for other partners. The new agreement between OQ and KPI is understood to have followed the Saudi chemical giant’s departure.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577785/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Nakheel awards $953m Palm Jebel Ali villas deal

    27 April 2026

    Dubai-based real estate developer Nakheel, now part of Dubai Holding, has awarded two contracts worth AED3.5bn ($953m) to local firms for the construction of 544 villas at its Palm Jebel Ali project in Dubai.

    The first contract was awarded to Ginco General Contracting for the construction of 354 villas across fronds A to D.

    The second contract was awarded to United Engineering Construction Company (Unec) for the construction of 190 villas on fronds E and F.

    Construction is expected to begin in Q2 this year, with completion scheduled for 2028.

    Earlier phases

    In October 2024, Nakheel awarded three contracts worth AED5bn ($1.3bn) for the construction of 723 villas on fronds K to P. The contracts went to Ginco, Unec and the local Shapoorji Pallonji.

    Under these awards, Ginco is delivering 197 villas on fronds O and P, Shapoorji Pallonji is constructing 275 villas on fronds M and N, and Unec is building 251 villas on fronds K and L. Villa construction is expected to be completed by 2026.

    Infrastructure works

    This was followed by Nakheel awarding infrastructure contracts worth over AED750m ($204m) to local firm Dutco Construction for works on Palm Jebel Ali.

    The infrastructure work includes utility connections, excavation, backfilling, and the construction of roads and pavements across fronds A to G. It also covers 11-kilovolt power distribution and telecommunications-related utility works.

    Reclamation contract

    In August 2024, Nakheel awarded an AED810m ($220m) contract to complete the reclamation works for the project.

    The contract was awarded to Belgium’s Jan De Nul. Its scope includes dredging, land reclamation, beach profiling and sand placement to support the construction of villas across all fronds.

    Masterplan details

    Nakheel released details of the new masterplan for Palm Jebel Ali in June 2023. Twice the size of Palm Jumeirah, Palm Jebel Ali will have 110 kilometres of shoreline and extensive green spaces. The development will feature more than 80 hotels and resorts, along with a range of entertainment and leisure facilities.

    It includes seven connected islands that will cater to approximately 35,000 families. The development also emphasises sustainability, with 30% of public facilities expected to be powered by renewable energy.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577782/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq’s first LNG terminal to be completed in June

    27 April 2026

    Iraq’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal is expected to be completed in early June, according to the country’s Ministry of Electricity.

    The terminal, which has an estimated investment value of $450m, is being developed at the Port of Khor Al-Zubair and will have a capacity of 750 million standard cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Ministry spokesperson Ahmed Mousa told the Iraqi News Agency that “work is proceeding at an accelerated pace to complete the LNG platform”, noting that “the government has set 1 June as the date for finishing the project”.

    In October last year, US-based Excelerate Energy signed a commercial agreement with a subsidiary of Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity to develop the floating LNG terminal.

    The contract was signed at the office of Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani during a ceremony attended by senior officials from both countries, including the US deputy secretary of energy James Danly.

    The contract included a five-year agreement for regasification services and LNG supply with extension options, featuring a minimum contracted offtake of 250 million cf/d.

    Ahmed Mousa said that “under the contract, the company is responsible for completing the facility as well as securing the agreed gas quantities from any source, in line with the specified terms”.

    He added: “Work is continuing according to the planned timelines to complete the project on schedule, as part of the Ministry of Electricity’s plans to keep pace with peak summer loads.”

    Although Iraq is Opec’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, it is a net natural gas importer because its lack of infrastructure investment has meant that, until 2023, it flared roughly half of the estimated 3.12 billion cf/d of gas produced in association with crude oil.

    Iraq’s reliance on flaring associated gas instead of gathering and processing it has prevented the country from fully realising its potential as a gas producer and forced the Iraqi government to rely on costly gas and electricity imports from Iran.

    Recently, Iraq’s oil and gas sector has been disrupted by fallout from the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February and the subsequent regional conflict.

    Over recent weeks, Iraq’s oil exports have collapsed by about 80% amid problems shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577746/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Iraqi LNG import terminal raises questions about energy strategy

    27 April 2026

    Commentary
    Wil Crisp
    Oil & gas reporter

    Iraq’s first LNG import terminal is set to come online in early June, at a time when global LNG prices are likely to remain close to their highest levels in more than three years.

    The disruption to global oil and gas exports in the wake of the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February led to LNG prices soaring, with natural gas prices in Asia and Europe rising to their highest levels since January 2023 during March.

    So far, there has been little progress towards a diplomatic or military solution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and most analysts do not forecast significant price declines in the near term.

    On 24 April, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the combined effect of short-term supply losses and slower capacity growth could result in a cumulative loss of around 120 billion cubic metres of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030.

    While the IEA expects new liquefaction projects in other regions to offset these losses over time, it still believes the crisis will lead to prolonged tight market conditions through 2026 and 2027.

    This means that Iraq will likely have to pay elevated prices for imported LNG for some time to come – if it can receive shipments at all.

    The port of Khor Al-Zubair is located in the Arabian Gulf, and LNG shipments from the US or Australia would need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz before reaching the terminal.

    This will only be possible if a solution is found to the ongoing blockade of the shipping route.

    Investment debate

    Iraq’s project to develop a floating LNG terminal is estimated to cost $450m, and many in Iraq may question whether this was the best use of these funds.

    While it may have been difficult for Iraqi policymakers to foresee the attack by the US and Israel on Iran and its impact on LNG markets, Iraq had several strong options to enhance domestic energy security rather than turning to LNG imports.

    The most obvious of these was investing in infrastructure to enable it to utilise its domestic gas reserves.

    According to the World Bank’s 2025 Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report, in 2024, Iraq burned off more unused gas than any other country, except Russia and Iran, which ranked first and second, respectively.

    That year, an estimated total of more than 18 billion cubic metres of natural gas was flared in Iraq due to a lack of infrastructure to properly capture and process it.

    It is highly likely that projects to gather and process this gas would have been more reliable and cost-effective than investing in a new floating LNG terminal, which increases the country’s exposure to global LNG price fluctuations and shipping disruptions.

    Other options could have included developing domestic gas fields or investing in solar and battery storage projects, which have become increasingly affordable in recent years.

    The cost of solar panels has fallen by more than 95% over the past decade.

    Power shortfall

    As things stand, Iraq is likely to face severe electricity shortages this summer.

    On 21 April, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said it plans to produce 30,000MW this summer, well short of the predicted peak demand of around 55,000MW.

    Ahmed Musa, a spokesperson for the Electricity Ministry, told the state-run Iraqi News Agency that the shortfall will result in planned outages across the country.

    He also said that even meeting the 30,000MW target is contingent on sufficient gas supplies.

    If Iraq experiences the same level of power outages as last year – or worse – many are likely to view the $450m spent on an LNG import terminal as a waste of money and an expensive symbol of poor planning.

    Power cuts this summer could stoke unrest at a time that is already politically precarious due to the ongoing regional conflict.

    In recent years, electricity shortages have repeatedly fuelled protests in Iraq during the summer months, particularly in Basra, where blackouts and poor public services have driven people to take to the streets.

    If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon, Iraq’s economic crisis will deepen, and electricity shortages are likely to further undermine the country’s stability.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577743/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait approves Doha desalination plant award

    27 April 2026

    Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders has approved the recommendation of the Ministry of Electricity & Water to award a KD114.28m ($371.5m) contract to supply, install, operate and maintain the second phase of the Doha seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant.

    A joint venture of Kuwait-based Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco) and India’s VA Tech Wabag has been selected for the project, with the award understood to be pending final approval from the Audit Bureau.

    The project will deliver a production capacity of about 60 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD) and will include the desalination plant with full reverse osmosis trains, pre- and post-treatment systems, recarbonation equipment, booster pumps, and safety and filtration systems.

    The total project duration is 96 months. The Doha SWRO desalination plant is part of Kuwait’s broader programme to expand water production capacity and reduce reliance on thermal desalination methods.

    MEED previously reported that the Heisco/Wabag joint venture submitted the lowest bid. Bidders and prices included:

    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding / Wabag: $373.2m
    • Cox Water (Spain): $538.1m
    • Orascom Construction (Egypt): $568.4m

    In April 2025, MEED reported that Kuwait had retendered the contract for the facility after the ministry cancelled the initial tender in June 2024.

    The Ministry of Electricity & Water awarded South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction – now known as Doosan Enerbility – a $422m contract in May 2016 to build the 60 MIGD Doha 1 SWRO plant.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577722/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall