Saudi banks track more modest growth path
15 September 2023
MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes:
> Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> Riyadh rides power projects surge
> Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower
Surging oil prices may have imbued the kingdom with a renewed sense of economic purpose, but the situation for banks is more complicated.
Economic conditions – notably the higher interest rate climate – have made life more challenging for lenders. They have been acquainting themselves with normality in 2023, after two post-Covid years in which the increase in profit yields averaged 30 per cent.
This year, Saudi bank metrics are solid rather than spectacular. Second-quarter net profits for the country’s 10 listed banks declined by 0.3 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms to SR17.4bn ($4.64bn), according to figures from Alvarez & Marsal.
Fitch Ratings expects average sector financing growth to slow this year, although remaining above the GCC average of a forecast 5-6 per cent.
According to Junaid Ansari, head of Investment Strategy & Research at Kamco Invest, Saudi Arabia still recorded the strongest growth in outstanding credit facilities during the second quarter of 2023 at 2.5 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms, while growth in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman was below 1 per cent.
Growth drivers
Aggregate credit facilities in Saudi Arabia grew 5.2 per cent on the start of the year to reach SR2.5tn ($670bn).
“Real estate was the biggest sector in terms of total lending in Saudi Arabia, accounting for 30 per cent of total bank credit facilities and 61 per cent of personal facilities during the second quarter,” says Ansari, citing Saudi central bank data from Bloomberg.
“Lending growth at Saudi banks is still high, albeit decreasing,” says Anton Lopatin, senior director at Fitch Ratings.
“Fitch is forecasting it to be 12 per cent for the whole year 2023, compared to 14 per cent last year. This is partially because mortgage financing affordability has decreased due to higher interest rates and also state subsidies have been tightened.”
Strong demand for mortgage financing, underpinned by a state subsidy programme, has supported the financing growth of Saudi banks in recent years, says Fitch.
Mortgage financing reached SR567bn ($151bn) at the end of the first quarter of 2023, with a compound average growth rate of 35 per cent over the past five years.
But Fitch sees financing growth moderating in Saudi Arabia.
“In the first six months of this year, deposit growth was above lending growth and that wasn’t the case in 2022,” says Lopatin, who points out that if banks’ funding base is growing faster than financing, that reduces pressure on liquidity.
Liquidity levels
Broadly speaking, liquidity is still healthy in Saudi Arabia. Low-cost current account and savings account (Casa) deposits in Saudi Arabia are still among the highest in the GCC, and there is a strong cash-rich government behind the banks in case of need.
After some liquidity tightening in 2022, the Central Bank (Sama) placed SR50bn ($13.3bn) of deposits in the banking sector to reduce the pressure.
“This is a Saudi-specific issue, reflecting that banks’ financing books are growing faster than deposits, and that is putting pressure on liquidity,” says Lopatin.
Casa deposits remain high in the kingdom, even though rising interest rates have led some customers to shift into term deposits. In the first quarter of 2023, Casa deposits still accounted for 56 per cent of total deposits, whereas two years ago the figure was 65 per cent.
“One reason for this [9 per cent decline] is the higher interest rates, but it’s also because banks have been competing for funding to support their growth. There is a huge increase in the cost of funding, but the margin is still very healthy, and the average net interest margin for the first quarter was 3.2 per cent,” says Lopatin.
Despite the higher cost of borrowing – and the attendant risk that this could force clients to default on loans – this should be manageable for most lenders.
“We believe that with adequate controls and policies, asset quality is not a concern at present for the Saudi banking sector,” says Kamco’s Ansari.
“The cost of risk for the sector has been consistently declining over the last quarters and stood at 44 bps, one of the lowest over the last several quarters. This also remains well below the GCC average of 66 bps.”
Loan health
Another source of comfort for Saudi banks is that the higher interest rates are applied to new loans while older loans remain at pre-decided fixed rates.
As a result, non-performing loans (NPLs) are not expected to see any steep increase in the coming quarters – especially, notes Ansari, in light of expectations of rate cuts from next year.
“In the first quarter of 2023, the average NPL ratio was stable at around 2 per cent, and the cost of risk was about 50 bps, which is rather low,” says Lopatin.
In construction and real estate, this could become an issue if higher interest rates result in higher borrowing costs for these companies.
“Not all of them operate with very healthy margins. Thus, their debt service capability will deteriorate. But as of now, we do not see significant upticks in cost of risk or sector average NPL ratios,” says Lopatin.
If Saudi banks are forced to reduce their exposure to real estate, there should be other opportunities for them to grow loan books – not least the Vision 2030-linked series of gigaprojects looking for support. Some of the Saudi banks whose balance sheets have expanded following mergers are now better placed to fund infrastructure projects.
According to the IMF, while mortgage growth has recently moderated, demand for project-related and consumer loans is expected to remain strong, helping offset the impact on profitability from rising funding costs linked to higher policy rates.
This may take a while to materialise. “As of now, we see only moderate financing for companies participating in the execution of the new gigaprojects in Saudi Arabia, but over the longer term, this will support banks’ lending growth,” says Lopatin.
There are other benefits to supporting these projects, not least with the government being the ultimate guarantor, which is positive from an asset quality perspective.
With a strengthening oil price expected to underpin a Saudi economic renaissance, there should be many more opportunities for growth-oriented Saudi banks to get their teeth into.
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
-
Algeria tenders 310km Tamanrasset railway16 October 2026
-
Joint venture wins $246m RCRC bridges contract16 October 2026
-
Humain tenders 100MW Riyadh AI data centre16 October 2026
-
Adnoc Onshore seeks bids for Bu Hasa field EOR project16 October 2026
-
OTTCO issues tender for Oman oil storage park expansion16 October 2026
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Algeria tenders 310km Tamanrasset railway
16 October 2026
Algeria’s state railway project developer, Agence Nationale d’Etudes et de Suivi de la Realisation des Investissements Ferroviaires (Anesrif), has invited national and international contractors to bid for the construction of a 310-kilometre (km) railway line between Hotel Station and Moulay Lahcen Station.
The planned line is a key segment of the proposed railway corridor connecting El-Menea, In-Salah and Tamanrasset across the southern wilayas of In-Salah and Tamanrasset.
The tender notice was issued on 12 October, with bids due by 10 November.
The tender is open to single contractors and consortiums. To qualify, single firms must have executed at least 200km of new railway lines or track-doubling works since 2010, with accepted project certificates covering sections of at least 100km, along with a cumulative 800 metres of railway bridges with individual spans exceeding 30 metres.
Bidders must also provide at least two rail-tamping machines, two ballast regulators, and a project director with an engineering degree and at least five years of railway construction management experience.
From a commercial and classification perspective, single bidders and consortium leaders must hold a category-nine (IX) professional qualification in public works.
Bidders must also demonstrate an average annual turnover in construction of at least DZ260bn ($1.96bn) across the 2023-2025 financial period.
For joint ventures, the cumulative turnover of all members must meet the $1.96bn threshold, with the consortium leader accounting for at least $1.3bn.
Offers must be accompanied by a bid bond exceeding 1% of the total bid value for submissions exceeding $7.4m, with proposals remaining valid for 90 days beyond the submission date.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20665591/main.jpg -
Joint venture wins $246m RCRC bridges contract
16 October 2026
A joint venture of local contractor Mofarreh Group and Turkey-based Gulsan Holding has won an estimated SR923m ($246m) contract from the Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) to construct a series of grade-separated steel flyovers across the capital.
The contract, known as Package 2 (Groups 2 and 3), is part of RCRC’s urgent bridges programme under the wider project to build steel bridges at 10 junctions across Riyadh.
The works have a 12-month execution timeline to fast-track traffic decongestion across major arterial corridors.
The joint venture’s scope covers the engineering and construction of grade-separated steel bridge interchanges across seven key intersections:
- IC04: Al-Khair Road and King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Road
- IC05: Prince Turki Road and Imam Saud Road
- IC06: Al-Takhassosi Road and Saeed Al-Sulami Road
- IC07: Khurais Road and Al-Hareth Bin Abdullah Road
- IC08: Khurais Road and Ash-Sharq Road
- IC09: Khurais Road and Marmar Road
- IC10: Al-Kharj Road and Al-Hilla Road
The total length of the flyovers is 8.86 kilometres, excluding Junction IC10.
In addition to the structural steel superstructures, concrete bridge foundations, decks and approach ramps, the contract includes retaining walls, utility diversions, temporary phased traffic arrangements, associated roadworks, drainage networks, roadway lighting, intelligent transportation systems and landscaping.
The client received commercial proposals from several local and international contractors. Other bidders included:
- Masco
- Nesma & Partners
- Al-Omaier Trading & Contracting Company
- Yuksel Saudia
- Batco
- Modern Building Leaders
- Sapac
The urgent bridges initiative is part of Riyadh’s rapid transport infrastructure programme to improve traffic throughput, enhance safety and ease vehicular congestion across central and ring-road corridors ahead of major events, including Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup.
In July, Mofarreh Group and Turkiye’s Gulsan Holding formed a joint venture to bid for and deliver transport infrastructure projects in Riyadh for RCRC.
The joint venture said it will target road, bridge, viaduct and interchange projects.
Mofarreh will provide local market access and operational capacity, while Gulsan will contribute international experience in large-scale transport projects.
The companies said the new venture will support knowledge transfer and localisation, and promote the use of international engineering and construction standards aligned with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 infrastructure and sustainability goals.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20663255/main.png -
Humain tenders 100MW Riyadh AI data centre
16 October 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Saudi artificial intelligence infrastructure developer Humain has issued a request for proposals for an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to deliver a 100MW artificial intelligence (AI) data centre facility in Riyadh’s Al-Saad area.
The tender was issued on 17 September, with bids due by 8 November.
The contract includes core-and-shell works; civil works; mechanical, electrical and plumbing installation; testing and commissioning; and site infrastructure across a 350,200-square-metre plot.
The project also includes an optional expansion phase that could raise total site capacity to 200MW.
The initial 100MW development is split into two equal 50MW phases, structured across two single-storey IT buildings housing four 25MW data halls.
Phase one targets a ready-for-service date by October 2028, followed by phase two in January 2029.
Under the optional phase three, an additional 100MW facility would be brought online by July 2029.
The data centre will be designed to support high-density graphics processing unit clusters and AI-compute workloads, with rack densities of 240kW to 250kW.
The facility will be built to Uptime Institute Tier III topology and LEED Silver standards as a baseline, targeting LEED Gold.
The operational design targets an annualised power usage effectiveness below 1.35.
Power will be delivered through four 33kV connections supplied by Saudi Electricity Company from two separate high-voltage/medium-voltage primary substations. The scope requires 15 transformers, 15 static 2,250kW IT uninterruptible power supply (UPS) units, and 450kW mechanical UPS systems with lithium-ion battery storage for each 25MW block.
Backup emergency diesel generators will be provided on an owner-furnished, contractor-installed basis, with the EPC contractor handling their installation, connection and testing. Fuel storage will provide 24 hours of autonomous run-time, split between on-site underground bulk tanks and generator belly tanks.
Thermal management combines air and liquid cooling. High-density server racks will be equipped with direct-to-chip liquid cooling loops using coolant distribution units and technical water distribution, paired with air-cooled chillers operating in dual high- and low-temperature loops, alongside fan-wall units.
The total construction timeline is capped at 25 months from site handover or contract signing, with pre-execution early mobilisation scheduled to start in January 2027.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20661045/main.jpg -
Adnoc Onshore seeks bids for Bu Hasa field EOR project
16 October 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
The onshore oil and gas business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Onshore) has sought bids from contractors for a key project to increase the oil production capacity of the Bu Hasa oil field, primarily through enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques.
The main objective of the Bu Hasa-Shuaiba EOR Unit 1 (Phase 1) project is to achieve a targeted 70% increase in oil production, extend the Bu Hasa field development’s production plateau and maximise the field’s potential in an economical manner.
The project aims to confirm and validate the optimum EOR technology for the top-ranked reservoirs/units; assess incremental recovery on top of the improved oil recovery (IOR) wedge; extend the field plateau for as long as is economically feasible; and achieve an ultimate recovery factor of 70% from the Shuaiba reservoir. It will evaluate and execute the recommended EOR option through pattern phasing for any technology proven by Adnoc.
Adnoc Onshore is understood to have issued the tender for the project on 20 September, with an initial technical bid submission deadline of 8 October, according to sources. The client later extended the technical bid submission deadline to 17 October, sources told MEED.
The chosen contractor will execute the project under a hybrid contracting strategy comprising:
- A lump sum (turnkey) EPC scope covering the complete pipeline system from East Hub to the separation plant
- A call-out-based scope for execution of all WAG injector and WSW tie-in works
Unless otherwise specified, all activities defined under the contractor’s scope will be deemed included within the lump-sum contract price. This will cover engineering, procurement, construction, testing, pre-commissioning and support to commissioning for a complete and operable system.
At the Bu Hasa field development, three remote degassing stations (RDS-1/2/3) and two satellite stations, Bida Al-Qemzan and Huwaila, are currently in operation. Production from oil wells completed in Shuaiba, Thamama B, Thamama F, Bida Al-Qemzan and Huwaila is routed via individual flowlines to the three remote degassing stations and the Bida Al-Qemzan and Huwaila stations across different parts of the field.
Combined production from the wells at each of these stations is routed to the central degassing stations (CDS) via transfer lines ranging from 16 inches to 24 inches in diameter. In addition, some wells in the central part of the field are connected directly to the CDS.
Previous studies have identified carbon dioxide (CO2) flooding as a promising tertiary recovery mechanism in the Shuaiba reservoir, delivering incremental recovery on top of the IOR wedge (P5 project), extending the field plateau as long as economically feasible, and achieving an ultimate recovery factor of 70% from the Bu Hasa Shuaiba units.
Located 200 kilometres south of Abu Dhabi city, Bu Hasa is Adnoc Onshore’s westernmost producing field. It is one of Abu Dhabi's biggest onshore assets, with crude oil production capacity of 650,000 b/d. It is also one of the Adnoc Group’s oldest oil fields, having been discovered in 1962 and in production since May 1965.
As part of the ongoing Bu Hasa Integrated Field Development Project (BUIFDP), 13 new well pads and two pad hubs have been added to the field. Oil, gas and water produced at these sites will be collected at a central gathering facility, then sent through production headers and transfer lines to the CDS for processing.
Adnoc Onshore is the Adnoc Group’s largest oil-producing subsidiary, accounting for 2 million b/d of oil and about 7 billion cubic feet a day of associated gas production from four main onshore field developments in Abu Dhabi: Bab, Bu Hasa, North East Bab and South East.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20639750/main0548.jpg -
OTTCO issues tender for Oman oil storage park expansion
16 October 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Oman Tank Terminal Company (OTTCO) has issued the main tender for a major project related to the expansion of the Ras Markaz crude oil storage complex at Duqm, on the sultanate’s Arabian Sea coast.
The project, titled Trade Bridge, involves the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of eight large storage tanks, each with a capacity of 650,000 barrels. This will increase the Ras Markaz terminal’s total storage capacity by 5.2 million barrels.
The project represents the next expansion phase (phase 1.4) of the Ras Markaz oil storage terminal within the Special Economic Zone at Duqm (Sezad).
State-owned OTTCO issued the prequalification notice for the project on 28 July, with contractors submitting initial responses by 4 August and final responses by 19 August, MEED previously reported.
According to sources, OTTCO issued the main tender for EPC works on Project Trade Bridge in the weeks following completion of the prequalification exercise.
The following contractors, among others, are understood to have been prequalified by OTTCO to bid for Project Trade Bridge:
- China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Company (China)
- China Tianchen Engineering Corporation (China)
- Daqing Oilfield Construction Group Company (China)
- Enppi Muscat (local branch of Egypt-based Enppi)
- Gulf Petrochemical Services & Trading (Oman)
- Hualu Engineering & Technology Company (China)
- Rotary Engineering (Singapore)
- Sinopec Ningbo Engineering Company (China)
OTTCO commissioned the first phase of the Ras Markaz crude oil storage park, covering 10 square kilometres and with a capacity of 26.7 million barrels, in December 2022.
The storage facility has two parts. The first is a marine services area, which includes a floating station for crude imports and exports. This zone is about 7 kilometres offshore and is connected via two 42-inch pipelines and associated facilities.
In water depths of up to 42 metres, the floating station can accommodate very large crude carriers. It is linked to four main pumps that transfer crude oil to the storage area, which is located more than 120 metres above sea level. OTTCO could add pumps at a later stage to keep pace with future demand for oil storage.
The second part of the storage facility features oil pumping systems, water treatment facilities, reservoirs, power station networks and other associated systems.
Region’s largest oil storage park
OTTCO will build the Ras Markaz oil storage facility in five phases over several years across an area of about 40 square kilometres, for which it signed a land agreement with Sezad in July 2017.
It will be able to hold 200 million barrels of crude a year. Total investment in the scheme is understood to be $5.2bn.
The storage terminal in the first phase of the Ras Markaz facility is connected to the estimated $7bn Duqm refinery and other oil-derivatives production plants at Sezad via a pipeline that will supply crude feedstock to the refinery when required.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20638090/main0749.jpg