meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Saudi banks track more modest growth path

15 September 2023

MEED's October 2023 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes: 

> Gigaproject activity enters full swing
> Infrastructure projects support Riyadh’s logistics ambitions
> Aramco focuses on upstream capacity building
> Saudi chemical and downstream projects in motion
> Riyadh rides power projects surge
> Jeddah developer restarts world’s tallest tower

 

Surging oil prices may have imbued the kingdom with a renewed sense of economic purpose, but the situation for banks is more complicated.

Economic conditions – notably the higher interest rate climate – have made life more challenging for lenders. They have been acquainting themselves with normality in 2023, after two post-Covid years in which the increase in profit yields averaged 30 per cent.

This year, Saudi bank metrics are solid rather than spectacular. Second-quarter net profits for the country’s 10 listed banks declined by 0.3 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms to SR17.4bn ($4.64bn), according to figures from Alvarez & Marsal.

Fitch Ratings expects average sector financing growth to slow this year, although remaining above the GCC average of a forecast 5-6 per cent.

According to Junaid Ansari, head of Investment Strategy & Research at Kamco Invest, Saudi Arabia still recorded the strongest growth in outstanding credit facilities during the second quarter of 2023 at 2.5 per cent in quarter-on-quarter terms, while growth in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman was below 1 per cent.

Growth drivers

Aggregate credit facilities in Saudi Arabia grew 5.2 per cent on the start of the year to reach SR2.5tn ($670bn).

“Real estate was the biggest sector in terms of total lending in Saudi Arabia, accounting for 30 per cent of total bank credit facilities and 61 per cent of personal facilities during the second quarter,” says Ansari, citing Saudi central bank data from Bloomberg. 

“Lending growth at Saudi banks is still high, albeit decreasing,” says Anton Lopatin, senior director at Fitch Ratings.

“Fitch is forecasting it to be 12 per cent for the whole year 2023, compared to 14 per cent last year. This is partially because mortgage financing affordability has decreased due to higher interest rates and also state subsidies have been tightened.”

Strong demand for mortgage financing, underpinned by a state subsidy programme, has supported the financing growth of Saudi banks in recent years, says Fitch.

Mortgage financing reached SR567bn ($151bn) at the end of the first quarter of 2023, with a compound average growth rate of 35 per cent over the past five years.

But Fitch sees financing growth moderating in Saudi Arabia.

“In the first six months of this year, deposit growth was above lending growth and that wasn’t the case in 2022,” says Lopatin, who points out that if banks’ funding base is growing faster than financing, that reduces pressure on liquidity.

Liquidity levels

Broadly speaking, liquidity is still healthy in Saudi Arabia. Low-cost current account and savings account (Casa) deposits in Saudi Arabia are still among the highest in the GCC, and there is a strong cash-rich government behind the banks in case of need.

After some liquidity tightening in 2022, the Central Bank (Sama) placed SR50bn ($13.3bn) of deposits in the banking sector to reduce the pressure.

“This is a Saudi-specific issue, reflecting that banks’ financing books are growing faster than deposits, and that is putting pressure on liquidity,” says Lopatin.

Casa deposits remain high in the kingdom, even though rising interest rates have led some customers to shift into term deposits. In the first quarter of 2023, Casa deposits still accounted for 56 per cent of total deposits, whereas two years ago the figure was 65 per cent.

“One reason for this [9 per cent decline] is the higher interest rates, but it’s also because banks have been competing for funding to support their growth. There is a huge increase in the cost of funding, but the margin is still very healthy, and the average net interest margin for the first quarter was 3.2 per cent,” says Lopatin.

Despite the higher cost of borrowing – and the attendant risk that this could force clients to default on loans – this should be manageable for most lenders.

“We believe that with adequate controls and policies, asset quality is not a concern at present for the Saudi banking sector,” says Kamco’s Ansari.

“The cost of risk for the sector has been consistently declining over the last quarters and stood at 44 bps, one of the lowest over the last several quarters. This also remains well below the GCC average of 66 bps.”

Loan health

Another source of comfort for Saudi banks is that the higher interest rates are applied to new loans while older loans remain at pre-decided fixed rates.

As a result, non-performing loans (NPLs) are not expected to see any steep increase in the coming quarters – especially, notes Ansari, in light of expectations of rate cuts from next year.

“In the first quarter of 2023, the average NPL ratio was stable at around 2 per cent, and the cost of risk was about 50 bps, which is rather low,” says Lopatin.

In construction and real estate, this could become an issue if higher interest rates result in higher borrowing costs for these companies.

“Not all of them operate with very healthy margins. Thus, their debt service capability will deteriorate. But as of now, we do not see significant upticks in cost of risk or sector average NPL ratios,” says Lopatin.

If Saudi banks are forced to reduce their exposure to real estate, there should be other opportunities for them to grow loan books – not least the Vision 2030-linked series of gigaprojects looking for support. Some of the Saudi banks whose balance sheets have expanded following mergers are now better placed to fund infrastructure projects.

According to the IMF, while mortgage growth has recently moderated, demand for project-related and consumer loans is expected to remain strong, helping offset the impact on profitability from rising funding costs linked to higher policy rates.

This may take a while to materialise. “As of now, we see only moderate financing for companies participating in the execution of the new gigaprojects in Saudi Arabia, but over the longer term, this will support banks’ lending growth,” says Lopatin.

There are other benefits to supporting these projects, not least with the government being the ultimate guarantor, which is positive from an asset quality perspective. 

With a strengthening oil price expected to underpin a Saudi economic renaissance, there should be many more opportunities for growth-oriented Saudi banks to get their teeth into.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11139548/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Construction advances on Riyadh King Salman airport

    19 May 2026

    King Salman International Airport (KSIA) is advancing airside infrastructure works under its long-term expansion programme in Riyadh, including the delivery of a third runway and new private aviation facilities.

    Construction activity on the central runway programme is progressing across several operational zones, with works covering excavation, grading, site preparation and taxiway-enabling infrastructure to support upcoming phases.

    The third runway is intended to increase airfield capacity and cater to the airport’s future operational requirements.

    In a separate development, KSIA has completed initial landside works for the private aviation apron, marking a milestone in the rollout of its executive aviation infrastructure.

    The completed scope includes pavement markings, waterproofing systems, firefighting infrastructure chambers and final operational inspections to support readiness for the next stages.

    KSIA has also secured General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) approval for phase one airside works, which includes the planned connection of Taxiway Alpha to the private aviation facilities, strengthening operational integration between executive aviation assets and airfield movement areas.

    The packages form part of the wider KSIA masterplan, which covers about 57 square kilometres and supports Saudi Arabia’s objective of positioning Riyadh as a global aviation and logistics hub.

    The airport aims to accommodate up to 100 million passengers by 2030.

    Saudi Arabia plans to invest $100bn in its aviation sector. The Saudi Aviation Strategy, announced by GACA, aims to triple annual passenger traffic to 330 million travellers by 2030. It also targets air cargo growth to 4.5 million tonnes and an increase in total air connections to more than 250 destinations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16906496/main.jpeg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Aldar launches Al-Ghadeer Gardens project

    19 May 2026

    Abu Dhabi-based real estate developer Aldar Properties has launched the Al-Ghadeer Gardens project, located on the Abu Dhabi-Dubai border.

    The new residential development will feature 437 villas and townhouses, offering two-, three- and four-bedroom homes.

    Al-Ghadeer Gardens will include more than 30,000 square metres of landscaped open space, supporting a pedestrian-friendly layout and outdoor-focused living.

    As part of its sustainability and wellbeing approach, the project is targeting Estidama Pearl 2 and Fitwel 2-star certifications.

    Earlier this month, Aldar announced its Q1 financial results, reporting a 20% year-on-year increase in net profit after tax to AED2.3bn ($626m).

    Aldar Development recorded a 14% year-on-year rise in revenue to $1.7bn, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) increased 23% to $599m.

    UAE revenue backlog rose to $17bn at the end of March from $16.6bn at the end of December, with an average duration of 29 months.

    The group attributed its performance to revenue from its development backlog and steady income from its investment properties.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16906154/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq trucks oil from the south to Kurdish pipeline

    19 May 2026

     

    Iraq is trucking crude from Basra to the north of the country to be exported via the Iraq-Turkiye Pipeline (ITP), according to industry sources.

    The oil is being loaded into trucks at fields in Basra before being driven to the north, where it is injected into the pipeline network at Khurmala Dome, in the northern section of the Kirkuk field.

    Once it has entered the network at Khurmala Dome, it is transported to the main ITP export pipeline and eventually to the port of Ceyhan in Turkiye, where it can be loaded onto ships.

    The volumes of crude being transported using trucks have surged in Iraq since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, starting a regional conflict that has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    One source said: “Most of the crude that is being trucked out of Iraqi oil fields at the moment is going to Syria, but some is being trucked to the north where it is being funnelled through the pipeline.”

    Even with the additional volumes being trucked from the south, Iraq is struggling to boost exports using the ITP.

    At the end of March, Amer Khalil, the director-general of Iraq’s state-run North Oil Company, said that Iraq was exporting 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) through the ITP.

    At the time, he said that the pipeline, which runs from Kirkuk in Iraqi Kurdistan to the port of Ceyhan in Turkiye, was expected to start transporting 300,000 b/d “in the near future”.

    As of early May, the pipeline was still exporting about 200,000 b/d, despite having a nameplate capacity of 1.4 million b/d.

    One of the factors said to be stopping increased volumes from being shipped through the pipeline is that several key oil fields in northern Iraq evacuated staff and stopped production after the US and Israel started their war with Iran.

    Another factor is that Iraq has not invested in domestic pipeline infrastructure to pipe production from Basra to Kurdistan, where it could be exported via the Kurdish ITP route.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16902345/main1824.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwaiti oil services company secures credit facility

    19 May 2026

    The Kuwaiti drilling and oilfield services provider Action Energy Company (AEC) has secured a new credit facility and renewed and expanded an existing facility in order to support the company’s rig fleet expansion.

    The new facility and the expansion were obtained from two Kuwaiti banks and had a combined value of KD40.9m ($132.8m).

    In its statement, AEC said that the facilities support the financing and deployment of new rigs linked to contract awards previously announced with the state-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC).

    The company added: “They further reinforce AEC’s financing structure and strengthen its ability to execute its contracted fleet expansion plan through 2026 and beyond, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation.”

    The new credit facility was obtained from Kuwait International Bank (KIB).

    It is worth KD7.3m ($23.7m) and will finance two new 750-horsepower (HP) rigs.

    The renewal and expansion of the existing facility is worth KD33.6m ($109.1m) and was obtained from Commercial Bank of Kuwait (CBK) to finance four new 1,500 HP rigs and one 1,000 HP rig, in addition to the renewal of the existing facilities.

    AEC announced its financial and operational performance for the first quarter earlier this month.

    The company reported a net profit of KD2.2m ($7.1m).

    The company’s revenue grew by 69.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by the expansion of the operating rig fleet from 13 rigs in the first quarter of 2025 to 20 rigs in the first quarter of 2026, including the full-quarter contribution of 10 new rigs deployed during 2025.

    The company is benefitting from a substantial multi-year contracted backlog with KOC.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16902234/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Emirates awards $5bn engineering complex deal

    18 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Emirates Airline has awarded a AED19bn ($5bn) contract to build one of the world's largest engineering complexes in Dubai South.

    The contract was awarded to Beijing-headquartered China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC).

    CRCC is being supported by French firm Artelia, as the project consultant.

    The complex will cover over 1 million square metres (sq m).

    It will comprise 77,000 sq m of dedicated workshop space for maintenance and repairs, 380,000 sq m of storage and logistics capacity, a 50,000 sq m administrative building for Emirates Engineering and 15,000 sq m of training facilities.

    It will be the world's only complex with a capacity to service 28 wide-body aircraft simultaneously.

    The airline officially broke ground on the project on 18 May. 

    The groundbreaking ceremony was attended by Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, chairman and CEO of Emirates Group; Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline; Khalifa Al-Zaffin, executive chairman of Dubai Aviation City Corporation and Dubai South; and Dai Hegen, chairman of CRCC.

    The facility will enable large-scale retrofits, cabin redesigns and structural modifications to be performed in-house, thereby reducing turnaround times.

    The engineering complex is scheduled for completion in 2030 and will be located at Al-Maktoum International airport.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16895218/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal