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Levant states wrestle regional pressures

1 July 2025

Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editor

The Levant countries of Jordan, Lebanon and Syria are all in various degrees of distress, and collectively represent the Israel-Palestine-adjacent geography most severely impacted by that conflict, including in the latest phase initiated by Israel’s attack on Iran. In all three cases, however, recent developments have provided tentative hope for the improvement of their political and economic situations in 2025.

In the case of Lebanon, still reeling from Israel’s invasion and occupation of the country’s southern territories in retaliation for Hezbollah’s missile attacks on northern Israeli cities, the hope has come in the form of the country’s first elected president since 2022, and a new prime minister. 

The task before both leaders is to stabilise a deeply fragile political and economic situation while avoiding further degradation to Lebanon’s weakened state capacity. If the country can ride through present circumstances to the upcoming parliamentary elections in May 2026, the possibility could also emerge for a more comprehensive shake-up of its stagnant politics.

In civil war-wracked Syria, the toppling of the Bashar Al-Assad government in December and the swift takeover by forces loyal to Ahmed Al-Sharaa have heralded a political transition – even if it is not the secular one that Syria’s population might have once hoped for. 

The new president has already made progress in reaching agreements for the rollback of EU and US sanctions and an influx of foreign investment that his predecessor could only have dreamt of securing. This opens the door to a future of economic recovery for the country.

The reopening and reconstruction of the Syrian economy also has the potential to benefit the entire region, by rebooting trade and providing growth opportunities.

For Jordan, the recent conflict in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories has hit tourism hard, while also pitching the country’s anti-Israel street against its US-allied government. Washington’s threats to cut aid and to raise tariffs on Jordan have added to the political strain on the country, and this has only been staved off by in-person overtures by King Abdullah II to the US government. 

The outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran has only worsened the economic climate for Jordan, with both Israeli jets and Iranian munitions frequenting Jordanian airspace and providing a constant reminder of how close the country is to being dragged into regional unrest. Yet Jordan has avoided conflict to date, and the country’s GDP growth is expected to rise modestly in 2025 as an increase in exports and projects activity stimulates the economy, despite the wider regional headwinds.

The overall picture for this region is therefore one of tentative recovery from recent shocks, ripe with potential for a better path forward as the Levant rebuilds and works together to overcome the challenges that have so long afflicted the region.

 

MEED’s July 2025 report on the Levant includes:

> COMMENT: Levant states wrestle regional pressures

JORDAN
> ECONOMY: Jordan economy nears inflection point
> GAS: Jordan pushes ahead with gas plans 
> POWER & WATER: Record-breaking year for Jordan’s water sector
> CONSTRUCTION: PPP schemes to drive Jordan construction
> DATABANK: Jordan’s economy holds pace, for now

LEBANON
> ECONOMY: Lebanon’s outlook remains fraught

SYRIA
> RECONSTRUCTION: Who will fund Syria’s $1tn rebuild?

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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John Bambridge

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