meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Regional diplomacy fails Syrian economy

6 June 2024

 

Syria’s dire economic position continues to worsen. In a report issued in May, the World Bank predicted the economy will shrink by 1.5% this year, following a 1.2% decline in 2023.

The economy had already contracted by 54% between 2010-21, according to the Washington-based body. Its international trade has also entered freefall, with the value of exports falling from $8.8bn in 2010 to just $0.7bn in 2023, while imports dropped from $17.5bn to $3.2bn over the same period. Syria was once an oil exporter with a large agriculture sector, but it has become reliant on fuel and food imports.

What makes matters worse is that the cost of importing goods is now far higher than it once was, thanks to the collapse in the value of the Syrian pound. In 2011, you needed £Syr47 to buy one US dollar; by 2023, the cost had risen to more than £Syr12,500 for every greenback. Last year alone, the Syrian pound declined by 141% against the dollar, while inflation was running at 93%.

Agriculture fared slightly better in 2023 due to improved weather conditions compared to 2022, but the north of the country suffered a devastating earthquake in February 2023, which killed several thousand people and destroyed thousands of homes.

The authorities have few spare resources to devote to rebuilding areas devastated by natural disasters or the civil war. 

The government has lost control over oil revenues to the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which holds the oil-rich parts of the country. The security challenges of the past 13 years have also led to a downturn in most other parts of the economy and enfeebled the government’s ability to collect taxes.

The World Bank estimates that, after adjusting for inflation, government revenues are now 85% lower than before the war.

The poor living conditions prompted a fresh wave of protests in Daraa and Al-Sweida in August 2023, which then spread to other government and rebel-controlled areas of the country. Locals have much to complain about.

The International Rescue Committee reckons that nearly three-quarters of Syria’s population, or more than 16.5 million people, require some sort of humanitarian assistance and upwards of 90% of Syrians now live in poverty.

Smuggling economy

One area of activity that has prospered has been the production and export of Captagon. This illegal amphetamine-like drug is smuggled in huge quantities into the Gulf, where it finds a ready market despite concerted efforts by the authorities there to clamp down on it.

The World Bank has estimated Syria’s Captagon trade was worth between $1.9bn and $5.6bn a year from 2020-23; that higher figure is not far below the country’s GDP of $6.2bn in 2023.

Those linked to the Syrian trade are thought to earn between $600m and $1.9bn in revenue a year. To put that in context, the revenue generated from all legal exports from Syria last year was $960m.

The Captagon trade might be enriching some figures close to the regime of President Bashar Al Assad, but it is also undermining the country’s wider economic prospects.

One potential avenue for rebuilding the shattered economy is to attract inward investment and the rich Gulf countries are an obvious potential source for that.

However, despite the diplomatic normalisation with Gulf governments over the past few years, the hoped-for investment flows have not materialised, with unhappiness over the Captagon trade a key factor – even if there have been some signs of a reduction over the past year or two.

Caroline Rose, who runs the Washington-based New Lines Institute’s research project on the Captagon trade, said: “We keep tabs of recorded Captagon seizures … and noted a slight dip in Captagon seizures region-wide between 2022 and 2023, so the reduction in seizures could be related to a stabilisation in the supply and production of Captagon.” However, she added that Syria continued to export the drug “at industrial levels”.

Investment brakes

The drug trade is not the only barrier to attracting foreign capital, though. Inward investment has also been hampered by US sanctions set out under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, generally known as the Caesar Act, and the myriad problems within the domestic economy are also a major hurdle for any would-be investor.

“When it comes to business and investment, Syria does not really provide any good environment for that. You have high costs, high risks, absence of rule of law, low purchasing power,” said Haid Haid, a consulting fellow at UK thinktank Chatham House, in April. “Businesses in general will not be tempted to go and open businesses there because the gains are low.”

Some regional aid has been flowing in, though. Arab countries raised their contributions from 2% of the total aid in 2022 to 15% in 2023, with the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia being the largest donors.

Others have been focusing their efforts on the plight of the millions of Syrian refugees displaced inside the country and beyond its borders in Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon. Since the war started, around half of Syria’s 23 million-strong population has been displaced, with more than 5 million fleeing abroad.

Some €7.5bn ($8.1bn) of grants and loans were pledged by international donors to help Syrian refugees at the Brussels VIII Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region on 27 May.

But until a political resolution to the civil war can be found, Syria’s enormous economic and humanitarian crises are unlikely to be solved. Speaking at the Brussels conference, the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said a “Syrian-owned political solution … is the only credible path for all Syrians to live in peace and stability, and for refugees to return home.”

Gaza conflict renews violence in Syria

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11854850/main.gif
Dominic Dudley

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi drilling firm raises acquisition offer for Dubai rival

    16 September 2025

    Saudi Arabia-based ADES International Holding has increased its offer to buy Dubai-based, Oslo-listed rival Shelf Drilling to 18.50 Norwegian Krone ($1.88) per share, representing a 6% increase in the acquisition’s enterprise value.

    The offer was revised from an earlier deal of $1.42 per share or a total of $379.33m.

    ADES International Holding, a subsidiary of ADES Holding Company, signed a transaction agreement to acquire all issued and outstanding shares of Shelf Drilling through a cash merger, with ADES International Cayman (BidCo) also participating in the proposed merger.

    According to a joint statement, irrevocable commitments have now been provided by additional shareholders, including China Merchants, Anchorage Capital Group and Magallanes Value Investors, which, combined with ADES’ 17.9% stake in Shelf Drilling, represent 53.4% of the outstanding shares in the company.

    ADES International Holding raised its offer for Shelf Drilling after reassessing the company’s current market performance and revising its estimated annual cost synergies upwards by $10m, bringing the total to $50m-$60m.

    All other terms of the merger remain unchanged, along with the transaction timetable, with closing expected to occur in the last quarter of the year.

    Shelf Drilling is incorporated under the laws of the Cayman Islands, with its corporate headquarters in Dubai.

    In April this year, ADES International Holding secured a 10-year extension for one of its standard offshore jack-up rigs from Saudi Aramco, valued at approximately $290m.

    The contract for the offshore jack-up marks the re-entry of ADES International Holding into the Saudi offshore oil and gas market. The rig was among six jack-ups whose charters were suspended by Aramco last April.

    ADES International Holding has secured deployments for three of those jack-ups in Qatar, Thailand and Egypt, while the fourth was recently redeployed to Thailand.

    ADES International Holding also said it has increased its footprint since the start of 2025 by securing an offshore drilling job off the coast of Nigeria, marking its entry into West Africa.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14676037/main0952.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Oman tenders Rusayl power cable project

    16 September 2025

    State-owned Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC) has opened bidding for the construction of the cable connection from the Rusayl power plant (GT-5 & GT-6) to the Rusayl industrial grid station.

    The tender is open to local companies with tender board registration and valid commercial registration, the authority said.

    Bids must be submitted electronically, with hard copies of the bid bond and other documents delivered to OETC’s head office in Muscat.

    The last date to obtain documents is 23 September, with bids due by 7 October. 

    The new cable tender forms part of OETC’s strategy to expand transmission in line with industrial growth. The Rusayl power plant, located near Muscat, is one of Oman’s key natural gas-fired generation facilities and supplies electricity to the Main Interconnected System (MIS), the country’s largest grid.

    The adjoining Rusayl Industrial City is a major manufacturing hub hosting companies across chemicals, textiles, electrical materials and food production, which has driven steady growth in power demand.

    OETC is undertaking several major transmission projects to reinforce the MIS. These include the construction of new 132kV grid stations, network reinforcements around Muscat and the Masirah Island interconnection, which is valued at about RO72m ($187m).

    Local firm Bahwan Engineering won the main contract for this project and started construction earlier this year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14675720/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • QatarEnergy awards contract for 2GW Dukhan solar plant

    16 September 2025

    State-owned petroleum firm QatarEnergy has signed an agreement with South Korea’s Samsung C&T to build a 2,000MW solar power plant in Dukhan, about 80 kilometres west of Doha.

    The plant will double Qatar’s solar generation capacity, supplying up to 30% of Qatar’s total peak electricity demand once complete. It will use a solar tracker system and inverters, capable of operating in high temperatures, to maximise efficiency.

    The project will be delivered in two phases and is expected to be fully operational by mid-2029.

    The first phase of the Dukhan solar plant will deliver 1,000MW of power to the Kahramaa grid by the end of 2028. 

    The agreement was signed by Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, minister of state for energy affairs and QatarEnergy CEO, and Sechul Oh, president and CEO of Samsung C&T.

    Senior officials from Kahramaa and executives from both companies also attended the ceremony.

    Under QatarEnergy’s Sustainability Strategy, the country plans to generate more than 4,000MW of renewable energy by 2030.

    Qatar’s first utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) facility, the 800MW Al-Kharsaah solar independent power producer project, has been operational since 2022.

    In August 2022, Samsung C&T won contracts for two other solar PV plants with a total combined capacity of 875MW.

    One of the solar plants, which has a capacity of 458MW, is located in Ras Laffan. The other plant is located in Mesaieed and will have a capacity of 417MW.

    Construction work on both projects was completed earlier this year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14674775/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi firm awards $121m of housing construction contracts

    16 September 2025

    Saudi Arabian real estate developer Al-Majdiah has awarded construction contracts worth SR454m ($121m) for housing projects in Riyadh and Jeddah.

    The contracts were awarded to the local firm Tatweej Contracting.

    The two projects are part of Al-Majdiah’s portfolio in collaboration with the state-backed National Housing Company (NHC).

    In an official statement published on the Saudi stock exchange Tadawul, Al-Majdiah said the contract value for the Adeem Al-Fursan project in Riyadh is SR298m ($80m).

    The project comprises the construction of 540 villas and townhouses.

    The Al-Fursan development in northeast Riyadh spans over 35 million square metres (sq m) and includes over 50,000 residential units.

    The contract value for the Khayala 1 project in Jeddah is SR155m ($41m). The project includes the construction of 528 residential units.

    The Khayala development is located in north Jeddah and spans nearly 1.6 million sq m. It includes 3,680 residential units.

    The contracts have a scheduled completion period of 36 months.

    UK-based analytics firm GlobalData expects the construction industry in Saudi Arabia to grow by 4% in real terms in 2025, before recording an annual average growth of 5.4% from 2026 to 2029.

    The industry’s output in 2025 will be supported by allocations as part of the kingdom’s 2025 budget, which includes a total expenditure of SR1.3tn ($342.7bn) for 2025.

    The industry’s output over the remainder of the forecast period will be supported by investments in transport, electricity, housing and water infrastructure projects.

    The residential construction sector is expected to grow by 3.8% in real terms in 2025 before recording an annual average growth rate of 6.4% over the remainder of the forecast period, supported by public and private sector investments in the residential sector to address the national housing deficit.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14674464/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Oman LNG shortlists bidders for fourth liquefaction train

    16 September 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Oman LNG has shortlisted contractors to bid for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works for a new processing train at its Qalhat liquefied natural gas (LNG) production complex in Sur.

    The LNG train will be the fourth at the Qalhat complex, located in the sultanate’s South Al-Sharqiyah governorate, Oman LNG announced last July. The new train will have an output capacity of 3.8 million tonnes a year (t/y) and is expected to be commissioned in 2029, raising Oman LNG’s total production capacity to 15.2 million t/y.

    According to sources, Oman LNG has issued the main EPC tender for the fourth LNG train project and invited the following contractors to submit bids:

    • Chiyoda (Japan) / Samsung C&T (South Korea)
    • JGC Corporation (Japan)
    • Saipem (Italy) / Daewoo Engineering & Construction (South Korea)

    MEED previously reported that Oman LNG hosted site visits in June for prequalified contractors, according to sources.

    Oman LNG has performed the preliminary engineering study for the planned fourth LNG train. It awarded US-headquartered KBR a contract to execute front-end engineering and design (feed) works on the project in November.

    Separately, in June, Oman LNG awarded Japan-based Kanadevia Corporation a contract to perform pre-feed work for a pilot methanation plant, and a detailed concept study for future commercial scaling of the facility.

    The proposed facility is expected to produce 18,000 normal cubic metres of e-methane an hour.

    The pilot plant will comprise three components: a seawater desalination unit, equipment for producing hydrogen via water electrolysis and a methanation system that combines hydrogen with captured carbon dioxide to produce e-methane.

    The agreement follows a memorandum of understanding that Oman and Japan signed in March 2024, covering collaboration in hydrogen, fuel ammonia and carbon recycling. 

    Oman LNG operations

    Oman LNG is a joint venture of the sultanate’s Ministry of Energy & Minerals, which holds the majority 51% stake, and foreign stakeholders.

    The remaining 49% is held by UK-based Shell (30%); France’s TotalEnergies (5.54%); South Korea’s Korea LNG (5%); Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation (2.77%); Japan’s Mitsui & Company (2.77%); Thailand’s PTTEP, following the acquisition of Portuguese firm Partex (2%); and Japan’s Itochu Corporation (0.92%).

    Oman LNG presently operates three trains at its site in Qalhat, with a nameplate capacity of 10.4 million t/y. Following debottlenecking, total production capacity increased to approximately 11.4 million t/y.

    Oman LNG secured $2bn-worth of project financing in 1997 to set up its first LNG export terminal in the sultanate, the Qalhat LNG terminal, which was commissioned in 2000.

    On 1 September 2013, Qalhat LNG was integrated with Oman LNG to form a single entity.

    The terminal exports gas produced by state oil and gas producer Petroleum Development Oman from its central Oman gas field complex. Oman LNG’s customers are mainly based in Asia, although the company has been expanding its client base outside the continent in recent months.

    In April, Oman LNG announced the start of turnaround activities at the third LNG processing train, which has an output capacity of 3.3 million t/y. The third train commenced operations in 2006 and primarily processes gas produced at the Saih Nihayda field in central Oman.

    ALSO READ: TotalEnergies studies expansion of Marsa LNG project in Oman

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14674434/main0940.jpg
    Indrajit Sen