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Regional diplomacy fails Syrian economy

6 June 2024

 

Syria’s dire economic position continues to worsen. In a report issued in May, the World Bank predicted the economy will shrink by 1.5% this year, following a 1.2% decline in 2023.

The economy had already contracted by 54% between 2010-21, according to the Washington-based body. Its international trade has also entered freefall, with the value of exports falling from $8.8bn in 2010 to just $0.7bn in 2023, while imports dropped from $17.5bn to $3.2bn over the same period. Syria was once an oil exporter with a large agriculture sector, but it has become reliant on fuel and food imports.

What makes matters worse is that the cost of importing goods is now far higher than it once was, thanks to the collapse in the value of the Syrian pound. In 2011, you needed £Syr47 to buy one US dollar; by 2023, the cost had risen to more than £Syr12,500 for every greenback. Last year alone, the Syrian pound declined by 141% against the dollar, while inflation was running at 93%.

Agriculture fared slightly better in 2023 due to improved weather conditions compared to 2022, but the north of the country suffered a devastating earthquake in February 2023, which killed several thousand people and destroyed thousands of homes.

The authorities have few spare resources to devote to rebuilding areas devastated by natural disasters or the civil war. 

The government has lost control over oil revenues to the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which holds the oil-rich parts of the country. The security challenges of the past 13 years have also led to a downturn in most other parts of the economy and enfeebled the government’s ability to collect taxes.

The World Bank estimates that, after adjusting for inflation, government revenues are now 85% lower than before the war.

The poor living conditions prompted a fresh wave of protests in Daraa and Al-Sweida in August 2023, which then spread to other government and rebel-controlled areas of the country. Locals have much to complain about.

The International Rescue Committee reckons that nearly three-quarters of Syria’s population, or more than 16.5 million people, require some sort of humanitarian assistance and upwards of 90% of Syrians now live in poverty.

Smuggling economy

One area of activity that has prospered has been the production and export of Captagon. This illegal amphetamine-like drug is smuggled in huge quantities into the Gulf, where it finds a ready market despite concerted efforts by the authorities there to clamp down on it.

The World Bank has estimated Syria’s Captagon trade was worth between $1.9bn and $5.6bn a year from 2020-23; that higher figure is not far below the country’s GDP of $6.2bn in 2023.

Those linked to the Syrian trade are thought to earn between $600m and $1.9bn in revenue a year. To put that in context, the revenue generated from all legal exports from Syria last year was $960m.

The Captagon trade might be enriching some figures close to the regime of President Bashar Al Assad, but it is also undermining the country’s wider economic prospects.

One potential avenue for rebuilding the shattered economy is to attract inward investment and the rich Gulf countries are an obvious potential source for that.

However, despite the diplomatic normalisation with Gulf governments over the past few years, the hoped-for investment flows have not materialised, with unhappiness over the Captagon trade a key factor – even if there have been some signs of a reduction over the past year or two.

Caroline Rose, who runs the Washington-based New Lines Institute’s research project on the Captagon trade, said: “We keep tabs of recorded Captagon seizures … and noted a slight dip in Captagon seizures region-wide between 2022 and 2023, so the reduction in seizures could be related to a stabilisation in the supply and production of Captagon.” However, she added that Syria continued to export the drug “at industrial levels”.

Investment brakes

The drug trade is not the only barrier to attracting foreign capital, though. Inward investment has also been hampered by US sanctions set out under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, generally known as the Caesar Act, and the myriad problems within the domestic economy are also a major hurdle for any would-be investor.

“When it comes to business and investment, Syria does not really provide any good environment for that. You have high costs, high risks, absence of rule of law, low purchasing power,” said Haid Haid, a consulting fellow at UK thinktank Chatham House, in April. “Businesses in general will not be tempted to go and open businesses there because the gains are low.”

Some regional aid has been flowing in, though. Arab countries raised their contributions from 2% of the total aid in 2022 to 15% in 2023, with the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia being the largest donors.

Others have been focusing their efforts on the plight of the millions of Syrian refugees displaced inside the country and beyond its borders in Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon. Since the war started, around half of Syria’s 23 million-strong population has been displaced, with more than 5 million fleeing abroad.

Some €7.5bn ($8.1bn) of grants and loans were pledged by international donors to help Syrian refugees at the Brussels VIII Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region on 27 May.

But until a political resolution to the civil war can be found, Syria’s enormous economic and humanitarian crises are unlikely to be solved. Speaking at the Brussels conference, the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said a “Syrian-owned political solution … is the only credible path for all Syrians to live in peace and stability, and for refugees to return home.”

Gaza conflict renews violence in Syria

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Dominic Dudley

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    Financing Rail Projects in Saudi Arabia

    Given the Vision 2030 emphasis on private sector participation, Saudi Arabia has a diverse range of financing tools for its rail programme:

    PPPs: In a PPP, private consortiums can design, build, finance and often operate infrastructure, sharing risks and rewards with the public sector. Saudi authorities see PPPs as a way to deliver projects efficiently while conserving public capital for other priorities. The Riyadh Metro, while government-funded during construction, will involve private operators for its operations and maintenance contracts. More directly, the upcoming Qiddiya rail link is planned as a PPP concession, with international firms invited to invest and bring innovative technology. The long-delayed Landbridge project, after earlier attempts, is now also expected to be executed via a PPP/BOT (build-operate-transfer) structure, overseen by Saudi Railway Company (SAR) and the Public Investment Fund (PIF). 

    Islamic Finance: Saudi Arabia’s leadership in Islamic finance makes sharia-compliant funding mechanisms a natural fit for its rail investments. Project sponsors and government-related entities have the option to issue sukuk (Islamic bonds) or use Islamic project finance structures to fund rail construction. These instruments attract capital from local and regional banks and funds that prefer sharia-compliant assets. For example, the PIF has raised billions through sukuk to support infrastructure development. Rail projects – which generate steady long-term cash flows and tangible assets – are well-suited to Islamic finance principles like asset-backing and profit-sharing. This approach also resonates with the cultural and religious context, making public support for these projects even stronger.

    Sustainable Finance: Saudi Arabia is turning to sustainable finance to fund rail and transit as sustainability becomes a global investment theme. Green bonds and loans fund environmental projects and rail qualifies by cutting emissions. Through their green bond frameworks, the government and PIF have issued multibillion-dollars bonds that include clean transport. By identifying projects aiming to improve environmental outcomes, Saudi Arabia can tap into the growing pool of internal ESG-focused investors who are eager to finance low-carbon infrastructure.  This can potentially lower borrowing costs and enhance the kingdom’s image as a sustainable development champion.  Additionally, global development banks and export credit agencies have shown interest in supporting Gulf rail projects on climate grounds. For instance, a significant portion of the Riyadh Metro’s rolling stock and systems was financed via export credits, and future rail lines could attract sustainable development loans.

    Transforming transport

    The time is ripe for rail – it addresses urgent urban challenges and propels the kingdom toward its Vision 2030 objectives of sustainability, connectivity and diversified growth. As of October 2025, Saudi Arabia’s rail sector has a clear baseline: strong urban demand and Vision 2030 policy direction; a proven Haramain high-speed corridor; the six-line Riyadh Metro; and a pipeline centered on the Landbridge, GCC links and connectors such as the Q-Express. The kingdom has set targets to raise public transport’s share from 1% to 15% by 2030 and plans to add more than 8,000km of track under the NTLS. Financing pathways are established with early application on major assets. Together, these facts define the current state and provide a benchmark against which delivery, ridership, emissions and broader economic outcomes can be measured as projects move from plan to operation.

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