Region plays high-stakes AI game
11 June 2024
This package also includes: Data centres meet upbeat growth
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a potential enabler for the economic diversification programmes of the GCC’s hydrocarbons-exporting states.
The UAE launched an open-source large-language model (LLM) last year. Falcon 40B, shortly followed by Falcon 180B, cemented the reputation of the Abu Dhabi government-funded Technology Innovation Institute as a major player in generative AI.
With 180 billion parameters and trained on 3.5 trillion tokens, Falcon 180B soared to the top of the Hugging Face Leaderboard, a benchmark for pre-trained LLMs. Falcon 180B outperformed competitors such as Meta’s Llama 2 in areas including reasoning, coding, proficiency and knowledge tests.
The launch of Falcon followed cumulative investments in research, talent acquisition and digital infrastructure. In recent years, Abu Dhabi has formed government-attached agencies and commercial entities backed by its sovereign wealth funds to focus on AI.
One such company is G42, which has partnered with the US’ OpenAI to develop sector-focused generative AI models, and with Microsoft to run applications on Azure and undertake AI skilling initiatives in the UAE and beyond.
Global AI hubs
The UAE aims to become a world-leading AI hub alongside the US and China, but the country will have to tread carefully when choosing partners to avoid geopolitical complications involving its most important security ally and its largest energy client.
Riyadh seems determined to give Abu Dhabi a run for its AI money. The GCC region’s two largest states have placed
separate multimillion-dollar orders for graphics processing units – powerful chips designed for training AI – from top US supplier Nvidia.
They have also formed AI-focused investment vehicles with a view to maximising investments and returns from AI ventures at home and abroad. Abu Dhabi formed MGX, which aims to build $100bn in assets under management within a few years, while Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund formed a $100bn platform to transform the kingdom into a semiconductor and electronics hub, with AI playing a central role in the plan.
In May this year, the Saudi Data & Artificial Intelligence Authority and New York-based technology company IBM launched an open-source Arabic LLM called Allam on IBM’s Watsonx AI and data platform.
With AI promising to be a $1tn market by 2030, it offers attractive opportunities
Computer power
A potential issue facing the determined push for AI leadership is that AI requires enormous computational power and energy, in addition to vast capital and talent.
A recent article published by the World Economic Forum (WEF) suggests that the computational power required to sustain the rise of AI doubles approximately every 100 days.
Related read: Global AI market to top $1tn in 2030
“The energy required to run AI tasks is already accelerating with an annual growth rate between 26% and 36%. This means by 2028, AI could be using more power than the entire country of Iceland used in 2021,” the WEF article says.
The AI lifecycle impacts the environment in two stages. First is the training phase, when the models learn and develop by digesting vast amounts of data; and second is the inference phase, when they solve real-world problems.
At present, the environmental footprint is split, with training responsible for about 20% and inference taking up 80%.
“As AI models gain traction across diverse sectors, the need for inference and its environmental footprint will escalate,” the WEF warns.
A peer-reviewed analysis in the science journal Joule says that a continuation of the current trends in AI capacity and adoption will likely result in Nvidia shipping 1.5 million AI server units a year by 2027.
When running at full capacity, these servers are expected to consume at least 85.4 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, which is equivalent to 100GW of installed capacity in the next three years.
Data centres, which make up the main AI digital infrastructure, already account for about 1%-1.5% of global electricity use.
In a hypothetical scenario in which everyone shifts to AI for mundane tasks such as performing searches on Google, every data centre would effectively experience a 10-fold increase in energy consumption, according to Alex De Vries, a data scientist at the Central Bank of the Netherlands, which conducted the analysis published by Joule.
As a result, the hydrocarbons-exporting and energy-transitioning GCC states – particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia – appear to be a natural fit for AI, due to the presence of abundant and cheap fossil-fuel or renewable-energy resources, and the need to diversify their revenue sources away from oil. With AI promising to be a $1tn market by 2030, it offers attractive opportunities.
According to a Dubai-based senior executive with a global infrastructure investor, each country and company will eventually need to consider what part they can play in the AI value chain.
Since Nvidia seems to have captured the microprocessor space, the other areas of opportunity are in developing computing power, algorithms and implementation. “Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the theoretical capability to grow into the computing power and implementation spaces, which require computing capacity through data centres and medium-skilled manpower to deploy, migrate, train and maintain [AI],” the executive says.
Greening AI
Policy adjustments could be needed to support such advances, especially when it comes to minimising AI’s carbon footprint, even as it enables the curbing of those in other sectors – including the power sector.
In addition to the vast computing and wattage requirements of AI, the region’s arid weather and very hot summer temperatures mean that regional data centres have greater cooling requirements.
To address this, the Dubai state utility has started to build a solar-powered data centre, which is understood to be the first of its kind in the world.
Saudi Arabia, which aims to have 58.7GW of renewable energy installed capacity by 2030 – accounting for about 50% of its electricity production mix – could follow a similar model.
Abu Dhabi’s quantum computer project, in partnership with researchers at Spain’s Qilimanjaro Quantum Tech, is under way.
Unlike a classic supercomputer that operates on binary states, a quantum computer uses quantum mechanics phenomena including superposition and entanglement to generate and manipulate subatomic particles such as electrons or photons, or qubits.
This allows greater processing powers that can enable the performance of complex calculations that would take much longer to be solved, consuming less power than a supercomputer.
The growing electricity surplus in Abu Dhabi, as all four reactors at the Barakah nuclear power plant come onstream this year, could also be allocated to data centres and AI applications.
In addition, Abu Dhabi’s plan to start procuring phase two of its Barakah nuclear energy plant may not only boost energy exports, but could also create sufficient margins to accommodate future AI computing demand.
Related read: Nuclear power will help region achieve AI ambitions
“I don’t know if that means only nuclear power can solve the demand, but it certainly is a good option and carries some strategic advantage as well,” says Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy.
While AI needs a significant amount of electricity for computations, there should be savings through productivity increases
Efficiency gains
While it is difficult to accurately quantify and forecast AI’s overall carbon emissions, a holistic view of its overall environmental impact is required.
In theory, while AI itself needs a significant amount of electricity for computations, there should be savings through productivity increases. “Will people need to go to the office less often, and how about the improved performance of machines?” asks the Dubai-based infrastructure investor.
However, it is also important not to overstate AI’s potential benefits to the region’s economies. While AI could be a major driver of economic diversification, Young has yet to be convinced that it will significantly boost the GCC’s GDP growth.
Job creation is a vital element of economic diversification, she tells MEED, but AI is often used to replace roles in the service sector and lower-skilled opportunities, such as those in the retail banking sector. This could impact efforts under way in several GCC states to boost employment among citizens, such as the Saudi Nationalisation Programme and the UAE’s Emiratisation drive.
On the upside, however, AI can be very good at improving efficiencies in the oil and gas industry and the power sector, and at boosting productivity.
The need of the hour appears to be establishing a clear path towards efficient AI deployment, despite the fact that the results of the technology’s full-fledged implementation remain hard to ascertain.
“The UAE is doing a lot to attract skilled people to provide more value-added services, but that is an organic process and needs a more vibrant ecosystem of education institutions – and companies establishing more than just sales offices – to be truly called a hub,” the infrastructure investor tells MEED. “Saudi Arabia is still a bit far from that.”
Exclusive from Meed
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Neom requests revised Gayal wind proposals
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This development follows the introduction of an addendum to the tender after companies submitted their best and final offers (bafos) for the contract to build the 1,200MW Gayal wind farm project in June, a source close to the project tells MEED.
MEED reported on 9 July that Neom is progressing towards awarding the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to the selected bidder following receipt of the bafos.
Enowa received the initial bids for the contract on 4 March.
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Wabag confirms $317m Saudi water deal
6 September 2024
India-headquartered VA Tech Wabag has confirmed winning a contract to build a 300 cubic-metres-a-day (cm/d) seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plant project in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia.
The value of the contract for the Yanbu 5 SWRO plant is $317m, the Bombay Stock Exchange-listed company said in a statement on 6 September.
The engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning contract covers the design, engineering, supply, construction and commissioning of the desalination plant.
According to Wabag, the plant will operate using dual media filters followed by a two-pass reverse osmosis process and re-mineralisation to produce clean potable water, which will be further distributed by Saudi Water Authority (SWA).
The plant is located on the west coast of Saudi Arabia, south of the Red Sea-facing Yanbu Al-Bahr, and is scheduled to be completed within 30 months of the contract award.
MEED reported in July that Wabag submitted a lower bid for the contract.
Saudi Arabia's main producer of desalinated water, SWA – formerly Saline Water Conversion Company (SWCC) – received two bids in May for the contract to build the Yanbu 5 SWRO project.
The other bidder is understood to comprise a local contractor team and an overseas-based partner.
The bid evaluation process is ongoing for a second project, the Shuaiba 6 SWRO plant, which has a capacity of 545,000 cm/d.
Two other projects, the Jubail and Ras Al-Khair SWRO projects, are in the bidding stage. They will each have the capacity to treat 600,000 cm/d of seawater.
The four contracts are being procured using an EPC model, in contrast to the SWRO facilities being procured on a public-private partnership basis by state offtaker Saudi Water Partnership Company.
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Chinese companies win 95% of all Iraqi energy projects
6 September 2024
Commentary
Wil Crisp
Oil & gas reporterCompanies headquartered in China have won 95% of all major project contracts awarded in Iraq’s oil, gas, chemicals and power sectors so far this year, as they increase their dominance in the market.
A total of $12.1bn in energy project contracts were won by Chinese companies during the first eight months of 2024, according to data gathered by regional project tracker MEED Projects.
The only major award so far this year that was not won by a company or partnership that was 100% Chinese, was the contract to rehabilitate the Baiji 2 gas-fired power station, which is estimated to be worth $1.3bn by MEED Projects.
This contract was awarded to a consortium of Beijing-headquartered China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) and German technology conglomerate Siemens.
Commenting on the figures, one industry source said: “China has been a dominant force in Iraq’s energy sector for a long time and this is only increasing as time passes.
“The huge presence that China has in the country’s energy sector is a source of concern for Iraq’s leadership, which doesn’t want to cede control of so many important infrastructure projects to companies from any single country.”
“The problem is, other countries are reluctant to take on the risks of doing business in Iraq and at the same offer the competitive prices that Chinese contractors can offer.”
The biggest energy project contract won by a Chinese contractor so far this year is the agreement for the development of the Al-Faw Investment Refinery project.
The client on the project, state-owned Southern Refineries Company, signed a contract with CSCEC in May this year.
The refinery will have a capacity of 300,000 barrels a day and will produce oil derivatives for both domestic and international markets.
The project will be carried out in two stages. The first phase will involve refining operations, while the second will involve constructing a petrochemicals complex with a capacity of 3 million tonnes a year.
The wider project also includes the construction of a 2,000MW power plant and the establishment of the Al-Faw Academy for Refinery Technology, to train 5,000 Iraqi workers that will eventually work at the facility.
Hualu, a subsidiary of China National Chemical Engineering Company (CNCEC), signed a preliminary principles agreement for the project in December 2021.
At the time, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said that the project would have an investment value of $7bn-$8bn.
MEED Projects has estimated that the contract value of the deal signed with CSCEC in May for the refinery project is about $4bn.
Other energy project contracts won by Chinese companies during the first eight months of this year included the contract for the Artawi 1,000MW photovoltaic solar power plant in Basra.
This contract, estimated to be worth $1bn, was awarded to China Energy Engineering International Group.
Chengdu-based DongFang Electric Corporation was awarded the main contract for a project to convert the Baghdad South power plant into a combined-cycle gas turbine power plant.
The project is estimated to be worth $85m and will increase the capacity of the power plant by 125MW-625MW.
Also this year, a subsidiary of PetroChina, the listed arm of state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation, signed an agreement to develop Iraq’s Nahr Bin Umar onshore gas field.
The subsidiary, PetroChina Halfaya, was awarded the build-own-operate-transfer contract, which is estimated to be worth about $400m.
Iraq’s Oil Ministry said that the field will have an initial output capacity of 150 million cubic feet a day.
The project is expected to be completed within 36 months and will include the construction of gas-gathering facilities, storage tanks and pipeline networks to supply gas to power stations.
Strong performance
Chinese contractors also performed well in Iraq’s energy sector in terms of the value of contract awards in 2023.
Last year, Chinese contractors won $2.3bn in Iraqi energy sector contracts, almost half of the $4.8bn that was awarded.
Looking at the data for 2023 and the first eight months of 2024 together, Chinese companies won $14.5bn in contracts, 82% of the $17.6bn in energy project contracts awarded over the period.
The second closest competitors were companies from Germany, which won just over $1bn in contracts, 6% of all awards.
Iraqi companies were third, winning $816m in contracts, according to the data compiled by MEED Projects.
Contracts were also won by companies from Italy, the Netherlands and Turkiye.
Iraq is currently in the midst of a push to try and increase the volume of work being carried out by US companies in the country’s energy sector.
Earlier this month, Iraq announced that it was planning to offer about 10 gas exploration blocks to international companies in a new licensing round that will be launched during a visit to the US by Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani.
Abdel-Ghani said that he will be specifically targeting US companies in the upcoming round.
Earlier this year, the US international oil and gas company ExxonMobil completed its exit from Iraq’s West Qurna-1 oil field, handing over operatorship to PetroChina.
Exxon’s plan to exit the West Qurna-1 oil field was first announced in April 2021, when Iraq’s Oil Ministry said the US-based oil company was considering selling its 32.7% stake.
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Region plugs in to electric future
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Colin Foreman
EditorRead the September 2024 issue of MEED Business Review
Saudi Arabia is well known as one of the world’s largest oil exporters. What is less known is that the kingdom is also one of the world’s most significant consumers of oil.
According to the US-based Energy Information Agency (EIA), Saudi Arabia consumed 3.65 million barrels a day (b/d) in 2022, making it the fifth-largest consumer globally, with a 4% share of the global total.
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Anyone who has experienced Riyadh’s traffic congestion in recent years will attest to the fact that Saudi Arabia has a lot of cars.
In the coming years, the plan is for the cars on Saudi Arabia’s streets to be electric rather than gasoline-powered.
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Overhauling infrastructure in existing urban areas is complicated and costly, but the region’s governments have demonstrated a clear commitment to making EVs work. Initial success is within reach as the region plays catch up with other geographies that have shown higher EV ownership rates are achievable.
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Must-read sections in the September 2024 issue of MEED Business Review include:
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> Region advances LNG projects with pace> SAUDI GIGAPROJECTS: Communication gaps hinder Saudi gigaprojects
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> BANKING: Kuwaiti banks hunt for growth
> OIL & GAS: Kuwait oil project activity doubles
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> Harris-Walz portents shift in US policy on Gaza
> Aramco increases spending despite drop in profits> GULF PROJECTS INDEX: UAE leads slight dip in market
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PIF and Hyundai award car plant construction deal
5 September 2024
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Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth vehicle, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), and South Korea's Hyundai Motor Company have awarded the contract to build a vehicle manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia.
According to media reports, the firms awarded an estimated $248m contract to Seoul-headquartered Hyundai Engineering & Contracting.
Construction of the plant is expected to start in 2024, and vehicle production in 2026.
The facility will have a production capacity of 50,000 vehicles a year, including both conventional vehicles and electric vehicles (EVs).
MEED reported in November last year that Hyundai Motor Company had appointed Seoul-headquartered Heerim Architects as the design consultant for its vehicle manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia.
PIF and Hyundai Motor Company signed a joint venture agreement to set up a vehicle manufacturing plant in the country in October last year.
The PIF will hold a 70% share in the joint venture, with Hyundai holding the remaining 30% stake. The total investment for the project is estimated to be about $500m.
In December 2022, Saudi Arabia's Industry & Mineral Resources Ministry signed a memorandum of understanding with Hyundai Motor Company to establish a car production plant in the kingdom.
The PIF is keen to invest in the kingdom's automotive sector. Last year, it launched the National Automotive & Mobility Investment Company (Tasaru Mobility Investments) to develop the local supply chain capabilities for the automotive and mobility industry in Saudi Arabia.
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