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Region plays high-stakes AI game

11 June 2024

This package also includes: Data centres meet upbeat growth

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a potential enabler for the economic diversification programmes of the GCC’s hydrocarbons-exporting states. 

The UAE launched an open-source large-language model (LLM) last year. Falcon 40B, shortly followed by Falcon 180B, cemented the reputation of the Abu Dhabi government-funded Technology Innovation Institute as a major player in generative AI.

With 180 billion parameters and trained on 3.5 trillion tokens, Falcon 180B soared to the top of the Hugging Face Leaderboard, a benchmark for pre-trained LLMs. Falcon 180B outperformed competitors such as Meta’s Llama 2 in areas including reasoning, coding, proficiency and knowledge tests.

The launch of Falcon followed cumulative investments in research, talent acquisition and digital infrastructure. In recent years, Abu Dhabi has formed government-attached agencies and commercial entities backed by its sovereign wealth funds to focus on AI.

One such company is G42, which has partnered with the US’ OpenAI to develop sector-focused generative AI models, and with Microsoft to run applications on Azure and undertake AI skilling initiatives in the UAE and beyond.

Global AI hubs

The UAE aims to become a world-leading AI hub alongside the US and China, but the country will have to tread carefully when choosing partners to avoid geopolitical complications involving its most important security ally and its largest energy client.

Riyadh seems determined to give Abu Dhabi a run for its AI money. The GCC region’s two largest states have placed
separate multimillion-dollar orders for graphics processing units – powerful chips designed for training AI – from top US supplier Nvidia.

They have also formed AI-focused investment vehicles with a view to maximising investments and returns from AI ventures at home and abroad. Abu Dhabi formed MGX, which aims to build $100bn in assets under management within a few years, while Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund formed a $100bn platform to transform the kingdom into a semiconductor and electronics hub, with AI playing a central role in the plan.

In May this year, the Saudi Data & Artificial Intelligence Authority and New York-based technology company IBM launched an open-source Arabic LLM called Allam on IBM’s Watsonx AI and data platform.

With AI promising to be a $1tn market by 2030, it offers attractive opportunities

Computer power

A potential issue facing the determined push for AI leadership is that AI requires enormous computational power and energy, in addition to vast capital and talent.

A recent article published by the World Economic Forum (WEF) suggests that the computational power required to sustain the rise of AI doubles approximately every 100 days.

Related read: Global AI market to top $1tn in 2030

“The energy required to run AI tasks is already accelerating with an annual growth rate between 26% and 36%. This means by 2028, AI could be using more power than the entire country of Iceland used in 2021,” the WEF article says.

The AI lifecycle impacts the environment in two stages. First is the training phase, when the models learn and develop by digesting vast amounts of data; and second is the inference phase, when they solve real-world problems.

At present, the environmental footprint is split, with training responsible for about 20% and inference taking up 80%.

“As AI models gain traction across diverse sectors, the need for inference and its environmental footprint will escalate,” the WEF warns.

A peer-reviewed analysis in the science journal Joule says that a continuation of the current trends in AI capacity and adoption will likely result in Nvidia shipping 1.5 million AI server units a year by 2027.

When running at full capacity, these servers are expected to consume at least 85.4 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, which is equivalent to 100GW of installed capacity in the next three years.

Data centres, which make up the main AI digital infrastructure, already account for about 1%-1.5% of global electricity use.

In a hypothetical scenario in which everyone shifts to AI for mundane tasks such as performing searches on Google, every data centre would effectively experience a 10-fold increase in energy consumption, according to Alex De Vries, a data scientist at the Central Bank of the Netherlands, which conducted the analysis published by Joule.

As a result, the hydrocarbons-exporting and energy-transitioning GCC states – particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia – appear to be a natural fit for AI, due to the presence of abundant and cheap fossil-fuel or renewable-energy resources, and the need to diversify their revenue sources away from oil. With AI promising to be a $1tn market by 2030, it offers attractive opportunities.

According to a Dubai-based senior executive with a global infrastructure investor, each country and company will eventually need to consider what part they can play in the AI value chain. 

Since Nvidia seems to have captured the microprocessor space, the other areas of opportunity are in developing computing power, algorithms and implementation. “Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the theoretical capability to grow into the computing power and implementation spaces, which require computing capacity through data centres and medium-skilled manpower to deploy, migrate, train and maintain [AI],” the executive says.

Greening AI

Policy adjustments could be needed to support such advances, especially when it comes to minimising AI’s carbon footprint, even as it enables the curbing of those in other sectors – including the power sector.

In addition to the vast computing and wattage requirements of AI, the region’s arid weather and very hot summer temperatures mean that regional data centres have greater cooling requirements.

To address this, the Dubai state utility has started to build a solar-powered data centre, which is understood to be the first of its kind in the world.

Saudi Arabia, which aims to have 58.7GW of renewable energy installed capacity by 2030 – accounting for about 50% of its electricity production mix – could follow a similar model. 

Abu Dhabi’s quantum computer project, in partnership with researchers at Spain’s Qilimanjaro Quantum Tech, is under way.

Unlike a classic supercomputer that operates on binary states, a quantum computer uses quantum mechanics phenomena including superposition and entanglement to generate and manipulate subatomic particles such as electrons or photons, or qubits. 

This allows greater processing powers that can enable the performance of complex calculations that would take much longer to be solved, consuming less power than a supercomputer.

The growing electricity surplus in Abu Dhabi, as all four reactors at the Barakah nuclear power plant come onstream this year, could also be allocated to data centres and AI applications.

In addition, Abu Dhabi’s plan to start procuring phase two of its Barakah nuclear energy plant may not only boost energy exports, but could also create sufficient margins to accommodate future AI computing demand.

Related read: Nuclear power will help region achieve AI ambitions

“I don’t know if that means only nuclear power can solve the demand, but it certainly is a good option and carries some strategic advantage as well,” says Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy.

While AI needs a significant amount of electricity for computations, there should be savings through productivity increases 

Efficiency gains

While it is difficult to accurately quantify and forecast AI’s overall carbon emissions, a holistic view of its overall environmental impact is required.

In theory, while AI itself needs a significant amount of electricity for computations, there should be savings through productivity increases. “Will people need to go to the office less often, and how about the improved performance of machines?” asks the Dubai-based infrastructure investor.

However, it is also important not to overstate AI’s potential benefits to the region’s economies. While AI could be a major driver of economic diversification, Young has yet to be convinced that it will significantly boost the GCC’s GDP growth.

Job creation is a vital element of economic diversification, she tells MEED, but AI is often used to replace roles in the service sector and lower-skilled opportunities, such as those in the retail banking sector. This could impact efforts under way in several GCC states to boost employment among citizens, such as the Saudi Nationalisation Programme and the UAE’s Emiratisation drive.

On the upside, however, AI can be very good at improving efficiencies in the oil and gas industry and the power sector, and at boosting productivity.

The need of the hour appears to be establishing a clear path towards efficient AI deployment, despite the fact that the results of the technology’s full-fledged implementation remain hard to ascertain. 

“The UAE is doing a lot to attract skilled people to provide more value-added services, but that is an organic process and needs a more vibrant ecosystem of education institutions – and companies establishing more than just sales offices – to be truly called a hub,” the infrastructure investor tells MEED. “Saudi Arabia is still a bit far from that.”

Data centres meet upbeat growth 

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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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  • GCC banks prove resilient amid turmoil

    27 July 2026

     

    Gulf banks are proving adept at navigating the economic and geopolitical turbulence that comes with operating in the region. These skills have come to the fore this year, as regional lenders draw on stable funding profiles and ample capital and liquidity buffers that protect them from near-term credit risks. 

    GCC banks’ fundamentals have proved remarkably resilient to the Iran-related turmoil, assuming the intensity of the February-April stage of the military conflict does not resume.

    There have not been any significant outflows of external funding. While anecdotal evidence suggests some depositors briefly moved funds out of the region at the start of the war, ratings agency S&P Global notes that their return reflects confidence that the war will prove short-lived.

    Funding strength

    Metrics for the early part of the year revealed a robust picture. Domestic deposits held up strongly in the first quarter of 2026, total GCC domestic deposits rising by 16.9% in year-on-year terms, compensating for the decline in interbank funding. 

    State-linked deposits grew at a particularly rapid pace, led by the UAE and Kuwait, which offset decelerating private-sector deposit growth in those countries. 

    Domestic deposits accelerated in April, a pointer to GCC governments’ proactive stances in shielding their banking systems from undue stress. The inflow of public deposits accelerated quite significantly in this period, although that pace will likely subside as conditions gradually normalise. 

    Such deposits continue to underpin GCC banks’ wider performances. “Funding and liquidity is generally a strength for the region. Government deposits typically make up 20%-30% of the banking sector deposits. That is really important as these are sticky deposits,” says Redmond Ramsdale, head of Middle East ratings at Fitch Ratings.

    Funding and liquidity is generally a strength for the region

    Gulf states’ heavy reliance on public sector and government-related deposits has proved valuable in the current environment, anchoring banks’ funding profiles and helping reduce potential risks.

    Fund outflows have not materialised to any significant degree. “We had some anecdotal evidence of funds being withdrawn, but they returned in the following weeks,” says Ramsdale.

    Solid fundamentals

    GCC banks entered the conflict period in strong shape. According to S&P, domestic private sector credit growth in the region remained robust in the first quarter – the annualised growth rate was 8% at the end of March. 

    Core capital buffers are about 15%-16% – higher still for the top lenders – ensuring total loss-absorbing capacity stays below 9% of equity. Regulatory ratios exceed relevant thresholds, providing a significant buffer, according to ratings agency Moody’s.

    “If you look at the whole region, the proportion of the lending book that is non-performing, on a weighted average basis, sits around 2%,” says Badis Shubailat, a senior analyst at Moody’s. 

    “Against this solid level of asset quality, you have a cushion of provisions for expected losses that more than covers the existing stock of problem loans, which provides a strong first line of defence.”

    Then, as a second line of defence, are core capital buffers that remain high by global standards, with levels around 15%-16%. Put together, this explains why the banks are sitting on comfortable positions in terms of loss-absorption capacity.

    At the end of Q1 2025, the top 45 GCC banks reported an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 17%, with coverage ratios of 155.8%, according to S&P. 

    “Credit losses are at historical lows of 50 basis points (bps) for the region, and there are very good provisioning buffers – all of which helps to mitigate the negative consequences of the expected asset quality deterioration,” says Tatjana Lescova, director and lead analyst at S&P.

    According to Shubailat, the fact that the conflict impact on GCC banks has not been as pronounced as on other sectors reflects that over the past three years – and until right before the conflict started – the region as a whole, and its banking systems, had demonstrated remarkable resilience. In contrast, major advanced economies were struggling with inflationary pressures and subdued economic growth. 

    “This was visible in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two largest economic diversification engines in the region, which happen to also represent more than two-thirds of total banking system assets,” says Shubailat.

    Limited exposure

    Gulf banks have also been helped by the fact that those economic sectors most impacted by conflict – tourism, hospitality, energy – do not generally form a large part of their collective loans books. 

    “There will be weaker performance of borrowers in the most obvious affected sectors like infrastructure, tourism, logistics, transport and real estate, but tourism is actually a pretty small exposure for the banks – less than 3% of loan books,” says Ramsdale. “There might be a bit of pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are less able to cope with the pressures than the larger corporates, but again, for banks, SME lending is not very big.” 

    Banks’ exposure to the real estate and construction sectors is highest in Qatar – 31% of total credit at the end of March – while the exposure in Kuwait stands at 25%, with Saudi Arabia at 16% and Bahrain at 12%, notes S&P. UAE banks have been consistently reducing their exposure to these sectors, down to 13% at the end of March, compared to 21% at year-end 2020. 

    Moody’s Shubailat says that developers in the UAE sit on solid balance sheets and strong revenue backlogs, while banks’ exposure to the construction sector has declined. “So the quantum is lower, the credit quality of the exposure is better, and the banks are sitting on higher capital and provisioning buffers,” he notes.

    Gulf bankers are not resting on their laurels. They know that even if bad loans have been limited, they cannot forestall the possibility of problem exposures further down the road. 

    “Asset quality deterioration is a risk that we expect to materialise later in the year. This is because of weaker macro expectations, and negative impact on some of the corporate sectors, albeit varying across different GCC countries,” says Lescova.

    On average, for the region, S&P expects 20 bps of increases in credit losses for this year. When it comes to asset quality, the regulatory forbearance measures announced by three central banks will help alleviate the impact.

    Policy support

    Central bank moves have added another layer of support. Forbearance measures from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar central banks have allowed additional headroom.

    For example, in mid-March, the Central Bank of the UAE launched a five-pillar resilience package that relaxed capital buffer stipulations, representing more than $272bn in support. 

    Kuwait eased liquidity requirements, raised maximum lending limits and released a portion of the capital conservation buffer to expand refinancing and credit quality absorption capacity. Qatar, meanwhile, has cut the reserve requirement from 4.5% to 3.5% for deposits.

    Forbearance measures from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar central banks have allowed additional headroom

    Such measures were not a response to a banking crisis, says Ramsdale. “Some of the support packages that we have seen coming out of the central banks, in the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, were preventative support measures,” he says.

    “They were designed to boost confidence and limit that pass through from temporary deposit volatility. It was not to do with acute banking stress.”

    Market confidence

    Larger banks are better positioned to cope with straitened economic times. They are generally more geographically diversified beyond their domestic markets, and international operations have historically been a growth driver for them. 

    “When there is increased market uncertainty, larger banks may benefit from a flight-to-quality movement, with deposits moved away from smaller banks. Based on Q1 results, only a few smaller banks have reported a contraction in the customer deposits,” says Lescova.

    The GCC’s largest banks, including Al-Rajhi Banking & Investment Corporation, Saudi National Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Qatar National Bank, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Emirates NBD, remain highly profitable, although they may not perform as strongly as they would have had the conflict not occurred.

    “We already expected some softening in profitability before the conflict, because of the normalisation of the cost of risk upwards from incredibly low levels over the last three years, [which] were driven by a very strong recovery performance from the banks,” says Shubailat. 

    “In turn, this current situation adds a layer of pressure to the normalising profitability story by increasing provisioning needs in light of the recent economic shocks,” he adds.  

    Confidence in GCC banks was evident from the outset of the conflict. In early April, Emirates NBD priced a $750m AT1 capital issuance, the first international debt capital markets transaction by a GCC issuer since late February.

    “The first ceasefire saw things like private placements start happening again, and that slowly translated into the opening up of public markets. 

    “Emirates NBD was one of the first banks to open up that market, and we are seeing the largest banks issuing again,” says Ramsdale.

    The operating environment for Saudi Arabia is ranked BBB+ – a strong position, all things considered. Ramsdale notes that Riyadh’s reprioritisation of large projects associated with Vision 2030 “means growth will probably be slightly slower in Saudi Arabia”, but adds: “That is actually a good thing, because growth was so strong it was beginning to pressure funding, liquidity and capitalisation. 

    “Taking off some of that pressure is a positive for banks.”

    Growth prospects

    Stronger earnings performances will allow banks to bankroll mergers and acquisitions (M&A), building on inorganic routes to growth. Within the past year, the National Bank of Bahrain and Bank of Bahrain & Kuwait (BBK) have agreed to explore a merger, while BBK has also absorbed HSBC’s retail banking business.

    Emirates NBD is reported to be looking to acquire HSBC’s business in Turkiye, a country where the Dubai bank already has a presence through its takeover of DenizBank in 2019. It also grew its stake in India’s RBL Bank this year to 60%. 

    “Certainly the big banks will remain opportunistic over M&A – where the value comes at the right price, then they are interested. And if the big international banks are going to pull out, they tend to have some of the best-quality assets, so you can understand why regional players might be interested in them,” says Ramsdale.

    Such moves should provide reassurance that, despite recent challenges, GCC banks are well placed to ride out the remainder of 2026 and resume the positive trajectory  that was evident before the Iran war shook the region. 

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  • Firms submit Jebel Ali sewage PPP prequalifications

    24 July 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality received statements of qualification on 23 July from firms interested in delivering phase three of the Jebel Ali sewage treatment plant (STP) expansion project.

    Known as DS150/3, the project will be delivered under a public-private partnership (PPP) model on a design, build, finance, own, operate and transfer basis.

    The project involves the development of a new water resource recovery facility with an ultimate treatment capacity of up to 1 million cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    It is being procured through Dubai Municipality’s sewerage and recycled water projects department and will be delivered via a two-stage operational approach over a 30-year concession period.

    It is understood that the following firms are among those likely to qualify for the project:

    • Acciona (Spain)
    • Alkhorayef (Saudi Arabia)
    • Besix (Belgium)
    • Etihad WE (UAE)
    • GS Inima (Spain)
    • Metito (UAE)
    • Miahona (Saudi Arabia) 
    • Samsung E&A (South Korea)
    • Saur (France)
    • Suez (France)
    • Taqa Water Solutions (UAE)
    • Veolia (France)

    The municipality issued a request for qualifications notice in May with an intial bid submission deadline of 18 June. UK-headquartered Deloitte is acting as financial adviser, Aecom is the project's technical adviser and CMS is the legal adviser.

    Dubai Municipality said the project will also include additional land uses and community-focused amenities as part of broader sustainability and urban integration objectives.

    Phase one and two expansion

    On 9 July, firms submitted bids for an engineering, procurement and construction contract covering the expansion of the Jebel Ali STP phases one and two.

    Located on a 670-hectare site in Jebel Ali, the original wastewater facility has a treatment capacity of about 675,000 cm/d, following the completion of phase two in 2019, combining approximately 300,000 cm/d from phase one and 375,000 cm/d from phase two.

    The upgraded facility will be capable of treating an additional sewage flow of 100,000 cm/d, with the expansion estimated to cost $300m.

    UK-headquartered KPMG and UAE-based Tribe Infrastructure are serving as financial advisers on the project.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

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  • Contractors submit interest for Riyadh Expo substructure

    24 July 2026

     

    Contractors have submitted expressions of interest on 23 July for a contract to deliver the early works and substructure works for several assets at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site.

    Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC) is tasked with delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue. Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle, the Public Investment Fund, launched ERC – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for the event.

    The assets include the Icon; the convention centre; and thematic pavilions, including the Culture of Wisdom, Place & Planet and Adaptation & Innovation pavilions.

    The Icon will be located at the entrance of the Expo 2030 Riyadh site, within the Collaboration Precinct.

    The structure will be connected to the metro station and will serve as a gateway to the event.

    It will be 66 metres tall and will comprise an observation platform, food and beverage (F&B) outlets and other features.

    The convention centre will cover about 22,000 square metres. It will be the first point of arrival for visitors to the expo.

    The Culture of Wisdom pavilion will be a 25-metre-tall building that will feature exhibition galleries, innovation laboratories and conference and learning spaces.

    The Place & Planet building will also be 25 metres tall, and will include indoor and outdoor exhibition spaces, F&B and retail facilities and support areas.

    The Adaptation & Innovation pavilion will be located within the Loop of Nations precinct and will comprise a 29-metre-tall building.

    Construction progress

    The tendering of the pavilion structures followed progress on the site’s infrastructure development works.

    In April, ERC awarded two contracts for the next phase of infrastructure works at the site to local firm Al-Yamama Company.

    The scope covered the construction of road networks and infrastructure for water, sewage, electricity, telecommunications and electric vehicle charging.

    These awards followed ERC’s January award of an estimated SR1bn ($267m) contract for initial infrastructure works at the site to local firm Nesma & Partners. That scope covered about 50 kilometres of integrated infrastructure networks, including internal roads and essential utilities such as water, sewage, electrical and communications systems, and electric vehicle charging stations.

    The overall infrastructure works – covering the construction of main utilities and civil works at Expo 2030 Riyadh – are split into three packages:

    • Lot 1 covers the main utilities corridor;
    • Lot 2 includes the northern cluster of the Nature Corridor;
    • Lot 3 comprises the southern cluster of the Nature Corridor. 

    The masterplan encompasses an area of 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event. Situated to the north of the Saudi capital, the site will be located near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to landmarks within Riyadh.

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  • Oil price rises above $100 a barrel after Red Sea attacks

    24 July 2026

    Oil prices rose to their highest level in nearly two months on 23 July after the latest escalation in the US-Iran conflict threatened severe new disruptions to global energy supplies.

    Global benchmark Brent crude closed 7% higher, at $100.69 a barrel on 23 July. Earlier in the trading day, it rose as high as $102 a barrel. That is its highest level in eight weeks, since the end of May.

    Brent was trading at over $100 a barrel in the early hours of 24 July, but later pared gains to settle around $99.63 a barrel as of 11am Gulf Standard Time (GST).

    The surge in the Brent price came after Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea following their announcement of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia.

    It appeared to be the first time since the regional war began that attacks on oil tankers and other commercial ships had extended beyond the Strait of Hormuz, opening up a new front in the volatile conflict.

    The Houthi threat is unsettling to oil markets because millions of barrels a day pass through the Bab El-Mandeb Strait to reach global markets.

    ALSO READ: Opec+ holds the line on unwinding of production cuts

    About 12%-15% of global maritime trade, worth more than $1tn, transits the waterway every year.

    It has also served as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic remains largely at a standstill, with ship crossings falling to single digits on 21 July.

    Since the start of July, oil prices have risen about 35%. Those prices are more than 60% higher than at the start of the year. This has erased much of the progress made in bringing prices down after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June.

    The interim peace deal has now collapsed, with US President Donald Trump threatening on 22 July to blow up an Iranian bridge or power plant for every vessel Tehran attacks.

    This was followed by the Houthi claim to have hit two tankers in the Red Sea.

    The UK’s Maritime Trade Office reported a tanker “struck by an unknown projectile” north of the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, and state-run Saudi Press Agency (Spa) reported that a vessel named Encelia was set ablaze by an attack while it was sailing overnight in the Red Sea, citing an unidentified source from the General Authority of Transport. Spa did not mention the other vessel, which is understood to be called Layla.

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  • Qiddiya tenders Dragon Ball theme park package

    24 July 2026

     

    Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) has tendered a contract to undertake the back-of-house works on the Dragon Ball theme park in Qiddiya, Saudi Arabia.

    The scope covers the construction of plant rooms, facilities management buildings, workshops, storage warehouses and central processing kitchens.

    It also includes a monorail service depot, a fire station, parking, utilities and other associated infrastructure.

    The bid submission deadline is 13 September.

    The Dragon Ball theme park will cover more than 500,000 square metres and will have seven themed zones inspired by the Japanese media franchise, including Kame House, Capsule Corporation and Beerus’ Planet.

    The park will offer more than 30 rides with five main attractions, including a rollercoaster that passes through a 70-metre landmark based on the series’ wish-granting dragon Shenron. 

    The development will also include themed hotels.

    In September 2024, US-based firm Falcon’s Creative Group announced that it is undertaking the masterplan and attraction design and is the creative lead for the theme park.

    QIC formally launched the Dragon Ball theme park in March 2024.

    The announcement came after QIC signed an agreement with Japanese firm Toei Animation, the producer of the Dragon Ball anime series.

    The Dragon Ball theme park is one of several major projects within the wider Qiddiya development. Other projects include an e-games arena, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Stadium, a horse racing venue, a performing arts centre, the Speed Park and Six Flags theme parks and Aquarabia waterpark.

    The project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom. According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, leisure tourism in Saudi Arabia has experienced significant growth in recent years.

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