Offshore oil and gas sees steady capex
6 March 2025

This package also includes: Saudi Arabia to retain upstream dominance
With nearly half of the Middle East and North Africa’s (Mena) hydrocarbons reserves located in offshore basins, regional oil and gas producers spend significantly on maintaining and ramping up production levels. Offshore projects are predominantly geared at raising drilling capabilities, expanding subsea infrastructure and building floating production systems.
In addition to boosting production capacity, producers also invest in offshore projects to improve technological innovation, safety and environmental sustainability.
Capital expenditure (capex) on offshore projects in the region has remained steady in the past 10 years, with 2024 being one of the best years on record, witnessing total project spending of $23.5bn.
Qatar’s offshore goals
Qatar accounted for the largest capex on offshore oil and gas projects in Mena last year, according to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects. The country invested more than $12bn in projects to produce incremental volumes of gas from its North Field reserve, as well to sustain its crude output.
In January 2024, North Oil Company awarded $6bn-worth of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for a third capacity expansion project at the Al-Shaheen offshore field, to boost oil production by about 100,000 barrels a day (b/d).
North Oil Company – a joint venture of state enterprise QatarEnergy (70%) and France’s TotalEnergies (30%) – has been operating the Al-Shaheen field since July 2017. Situated 80 kilometres (km) north of Ras Laffan, at a water depth of 60 metres, Al-Shaheen holds one of the biggest oil reserves in the world and is Qatar’s largest field. It has a production potential of 300,000 b/d and accounts for about 45% of the country’s total oil production.
Meanwhile, Qatar’s North Field liquefied natural gas (LNG) expansion requires state enterprise QatarEnergy to pump large volumes of gas from the North Field offshore reserve to feed the three phases of the $30bn-plus programme. QatarEnergy has invested billions of dollars in EPC works on the two phases of the North Field Production Sustainability (NFPS) project, which aims to maintain steady gas feedstock for the North Field LNG expansion phases.
QatarEnergy LNG, a subsidiary of QatarEnergy, awarded Italy’s Saipem an order valued at $4bn for combined packages Comp3A and Comp3B of the NFPS Offshore Compression Programme’s second phase in September last year. The scope of work on the packages encompasses the engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) of six platforms, approximately 100km of 28-inch- and 24-inch-diameter corrosion-resistant alloy rigid subsea pipelines, 100km of subsea composite cables, 150km of fibre optic cables and several other subsea units.
The job for combined packages Comp3A and Comp3B is Saipem’s latest contract award as part of the NFPS scheme. The Italian contractor has secured work totalling almost $6bn on the two phases of the project.
UAE pushes offshore
With Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group) striving to attain an oil production capacity of 5 million b/d by 2027 and become self-sufficient in gas production by the end of this decade, offshore oil and gas projects have received a significant boost. Adnoc was the second-highest spender on offshore projects in the region last year, as well as in the past 10 years.
In 2024, Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Offshore spent about $6bn on major programmes to potentially increase oil production, such as the two phases of a project to raise output from the Upper Zakum offshore concession in Abu Dhabi to 1.2 million b/d.
In April last year, Adnoc Offshore awarded the project’s main EPC contract – known as UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-1 and worth $825m – to UAE-based Target Engineering Construction Company. In November, Target also won the contract for the project’s next phase, known as UZ 1.2MMBD EPC-2, which is understood to be valued at $500m.
Also last year, Adnoc Offshore awarded a contract, estimated to be worth $2bn, for a project to increase production from the Umm Shaif offshore oil field in Abu Dhabi.
US-based oil and gas contractor McDermott International won the main contract for the Umm Shaif Accelerated Development project, which aims to increase the Umm Shaif oil field’s output from about 275,000 b/d to 390,000 b/d by 2027, and to sustain that level of production until at least 2036.
Aramco maintains capex
In January 2024, the Saudi Energy Ministry directed Saudi Aramco to abandon its campaign to expand its oil production spare capacity from 12 million b/d to 13 million b/d by 2027. As a consequence of that government decision, Aramco cancelled the tendering process for at least 15 schemes involving the EPCI of structures at offshore oil and gas fields.
Aramco has since changed tack, spending an estimated $5bn in 2024 on offshore EPCI contracts and earning third place in the league table of highest offshore spenders in the Mena region last year.
Saipem was the biggest beneficiary of Aramco’s offshore spending, winning five of the eight Contracts Release and Purchase Orders (CRPOs) awarded last year.
In May, Aramco awarded Saipem the contract for CRPO 143, which involves replacing an oil line between the Berri and Manifa oil fields in the kingdom’s Gulf waters.
Aramco then awarded Saipem the contract for CRPO 138, which involves laying a trunkline at the Abu Safah offshore field. The contract is estimated to be worth $500m.
The Milan-listed contractor then scooped three CRPOs in August, starting with CRPOs 132 and 139, the combined value of which is estimated to be about $1bn. In September, Saipem began work on the two contracts, which involve the EPCI of structures to upgrade the Marjan, Zuluf and Safaniya offshore field developments.
Just days after the award of CRPOs 132 and 139, Aramco awarded Saipem CRPO 127, a $2bn contract that involves the EPCI of topsides and jackets for wellhead platforms, a tie-in platform jacket and topside, rigid flowlines, submarine composite cables and fibre optic cables at the Marjan oil and gas field.
In late November, Aramco awarded three further CRPOs worth more than $500m. China Offshore Oil Engineering Company won CRPOs 149 and 152, which are estimated to be valued at $30m and $250m-$300m, respectively. UK-based Subsea7 secured CRPO 153, which is understood to be valued at $200m-$250m.
Positive outlook
Regional national oil companies, particularly those in the Gulf, will seek to maintain a steady stream of investment in offshore projects this year, capitalising on the favourable oil price environment in pursuit of their goal of ramping up output potential in the mid to long term.
Their international counterparts are also likely to press ahead with projects to derive maximum value out of their offshore hydrocarbons assets in the Mena region, a large portion of which are located in prolific, shallow-water formations, making the production of oil and gas more cost-effective than in other regions.
Capex on offshore oil and gas projects this year may well match the level seen in 2024, according to MEED Projects data. In the first two months of 2025, offshore EPC contract awards reached $7.5bn.
Adnoc Offshore accounts for that entire spend through its Lower Zakum Long-Term Development Plan (LTDP-1) project. The company’s long-term objective is to raise output capacity at the Lower Zakum offshore hydrocarbons concession in Abu Dhabi to 520,000 b/d by 2027 and maintain that level until 2034.
Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas and Abu Dhabi-based contractors NMDC Energy and Target Engineering Construction Company have been selceted by Adnoc Offshore to execute EPC works on the three main packages of the Lower Zakum LTDP-1 project.
Separately, Aramco is in the bid evaluation and tendering stages with a total of 12 more CRPOs. The biggest of these offshore tenders are a set of four CRPOs – numbers 145, 146, 147 and 148 – that are part of a project to further expand the Zuluf offshore field development.
These four CRPOs, estimated to be worth about $5.8bn, involve the EPCI of several structures at the Zuluf field, to maintain and raise its long-term oil and gas production potential.
In addition to CRPOs 145, 146, 147 and 148, entities in Saudi Aramco’s Long-Term Agreement (LTA) pool of offshore contractors submitted bids last year for CRPO 150 – an estimated $50m tender that involves the installation of structures at Aramco’s Northern Area Oil Operations.
In December, Aramco issued seven more CRPOs – 154, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159 and 160 – for which its LTA contractors are in the process of preparing bids. Work on these tenders relates to EPCI on structures at several offshore oil and gas fields in Saudi Arabia.
Aramco has been the biggest spender on offshore oil and gas projects in the region in the past 10 years, with capex exceeding $48.5bn. The world’s largest company is predicted to spend significantly on offshore EPC projects in 2025, too.
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The US-Iran agreement, declared complete on 14 June, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the US naval blockade and ends a war that has closed the Gulf’s export artery since 28 February. The strait reopens at Friday’s signing on paper, but the recovery will take months.
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Such gaps – here a 30-day treaty obligation against a six-month operational reality – have become the running feature of the bilateral negotiations, which have been framed by mutual distrust and plagued by an absence of granular detail.
The deal is welcome for the region despite its uncertainty. Behind the mines sits a tanker backlog built over more than 100 days, and Gulf producers that throttled back production and need time and assurances to restore flow.
Before the war, roughly 100 ships transited daily; Kpler now projects around 40 a day could sail within the first month, but with an estimated 300 loaded vessels stranded on either side of the strait, and 250 more sitting empty and idle in the Gulf, it is a pressure release valve, not an immediate restoration of flow.
A total restoration of oil and trade flows is unlikely to come into view before the year’s end.
Insurance represents the second brake, with war-risk premiums standing at 1-4% of vessel value per transit, or about $8m for a $200m tanker – against less than 0.1% before the war.
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Conditional relief
Markets have already traded the sentiment, however. Brent settled at $87.33 on 13 June – an eight-week low – and have fallen further as the deal has firmed. As of early morning trading on 16 June, the first full day of trading after the Islamic New Year, Brent was down at $78.
Yet the relief remains highly conditional: a 60-day nuclear negotiation now follows the signing, and a breakdown in either this, passage through the strait or peace in Lebanon could return the strait to crisis.
The US-touted toll-free terminology is also narrower than billed, with the Iranians instead affirming a 60-day grace period for fees but not eliminating the possibility of “fees” for navigation, environmental and insurance services after that point.
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It is through this terminology that Iran is now consistently framing its plans to charge fees from passing vessels through the office of its Persian Gulf Strait Authority – established 5 May and since sanctioned by the US Treasury.
For the Gulf, a 60-day waiver that resolves into an Iranian (and possibly joint Omani) fee regime is a pause in Iran’s tollgate economy, not its end – and would represent a strategic concession for the US, the Gulf and the globe.
Levant entanglement
Lebanon is another conditional space that the deal cannot fully escape, with a flare-up on that front being the final potential trigger that could collapse the 60-day agreement.
Iran has explicitly tied a ceasefire in Lebanon to the resolution of transit in the strait, but Israel does not agree with this, and the linkage may have inadvertently handed Tel Aviv the exact tool it needs to disrupt the US–Iran ceasefire – through the simple of continuing a conflict that it already wants to continue.
Within a day of the deal, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF would stay in southern Lebanon “without any time limit”, with US officials corroborating that Israeli withdrawal was never a condition of a deal.
On the ground, the ceasefire is already looking frail, with post-deal fire straying in both directions and already endangering the regional calm and Hormuz reopening the Gulf is already pricing.
For Gulf producers and shippers, the distinction and in some cases friction between what the deal declares and what it actually delivers remains a cause for uncertainty.
A declaration is easy, but the delivery requires nuclear negotiation, mine-clearance verification, insurance repricing and a 60-day political test before barrels can again move at volume.
Trump, who has been frustrated for months with the slow progress on Iran from a US perspective, is also more than likely to be distracted by other concerns on a timeline shorter than 60 days – risking the political will to peace coming up short.
In the Gulf, whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE send cabinet-level representatives to Geneva on Friday will signal whether the region’s political leaders are willing to wield the political capital necessary to keep the US on track and pursue the ceasefire to fruition.
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