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Middle East faces a reckoning

19 November 2024

Commentary
Edmund O'Sullivan
Former editor of MEED

For a year, the carnage in Gaza that has spread to the West Bank and Lebanon has been a source of dismay for the Middle East. But its impact has been limited – unless you were a target or know someone who is.

The moment is coming when that will change. Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the US general election has been swiftly followed by the announcement of senior government appointments of people who are both ideological and uncompromising. And they are in a hurry.

Iran is Trump’s top Middle East foe, but that is not new. In his first term, Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal with Tehran, ratcheted up economic sanctions and ordered the assassination in Baghdad of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force. 

Iran’s allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen will also be hit, but that is something the administration of President Joe Biden also did.

Regional focus

The new administration’s sights are now also set on Gulf Arab states and others in the region that have expressed support for Gaza and the Palestinians without doing much to help. 

There is speculation that Trump is preparing to recognise occupied Palestinian territories as part of Israel. This is a nightmare for Middle East moderates.

The new administration’s sights are now set on Gulf Arab states

On 11 November, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud told a summit of the leaders of Muslim nations in Riyadh that the attack on Gaza was genocide, called for action to create a Palestinian state and demanded an end to Israel’s offensives in Palestine and Lebanon. Countries that are party to the Abraham Accords of 2020 have been more measured in their public statements, but not by much.

And yet, these are the ones that are likely to be under pressure from Washington to recognise Israel, assent to its destruction of hope for the twin-state solution and – going by the calls made by Republican US senator Lindsay Graham in a visit to the region in October – both run Gaza and finance its reconstruction.

This seems completely impossible, but not for those who will dominate US government from 20 January 2025. Whoever will be secretary of state under Trump may have other priorities, including ending the war in Ukraine, but the tone for US policy in the Middle East has been set. Arab states that welcome Trump and want a defence and security relationship with Washington are going to have to balance that with their demand for justice for Palestine. 

These priorities are now irreconcilable. A reckoning for the region is coming.

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More from Edmund O’Sullivan:

> Biden leaves a mixed legacy
> Desperate days drag on
> The beginning of the end
> The death of political risk
> Italy at centre of new reduced Europe
> US foreign policy approach remains adrift
> Rainmaking in the world economy
> New shock treatment for Egypt’s economy
> Syria’s long march in from the cold
> Lebanon’s pain captured in a call from Beirut

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Edmund O’Sullivan

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