Middle East equities weather the storm
30 May 2024
The combined value of the MEED Top 100 largest listed firms in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region dipped slightly to $3.7tn over the past year – from $3.8tn in 2023 – as rising regional geopolitical risk lent greater caution to international investment in emerging markets.
The past year has also seen several sector-by-sector trends, including downward pressure on the valuation of many companies in the oil and gas sector – Saudi Aramco included – amid weakening oil prices and mandatory production cuts. In the banking sector, on the other hand, many valuations have improved amid higher interest rate spreads and rising project activity.
Overall sentiment in Mena capital markets remains generally positive, with a strong showing of initial public offerings (IPOs) over the past 12 months, many of which were oversubscribed, and with several more major listings to come. In Saudi Arabia, Fakeeh Care Group is in the process of concluding what is expected to be the largest Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) IPO of 2024 after a booking period that was 119 times oversubscribed.
New listings
This year’s MEED Top 100 ranking includes five newly listed entries worth a combined $36bn, including two listings on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange – Adnoc Logistic & Services and Pure Health – and three listings on the Tadawul: Ades Holding Company, MBC Group and Saudi Logistics Services.
Ades Holding raised the highest listing proceeds for the year, at $1.2bn, followed by Pure Health at $987m and Saudi Logistics Services at $678m. Pure Health also experienced the highest first-day gain, with its share price rising by 76% from the time of listing to close of business.
Overall, the Mena region hosted 48 IPOs in 2023, raising a total of $10.7bn, according to consultancy EY, with the activity concentrated in the GCC and Egypt. This was a 6% decrease in the number of IPOs and a 51% drop in proceeds compared to 2022.
In Q1 2024, there were 10 IPOs valued at $1.2bn, with nine listings from Saudi Arabia, according to EY. As of 9 May, there were a further 25 companies and 10 funds with plans to list by the end of the year, led by prospects in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. This forward-looking pipeline is again dominated by Saudi Arabia, where 21 companies have announced IPOs.
Top sectors
The ranking remains heavily weighted towards the oil and gas sector due to the size of Saudi Aramco, but the overall share of the sector on the list has declined slightly – from making up 61.3% of the total value in 2023 to representing 58.4% in this year’s list.
Saudi Aramco itself has dipped in value from $2.1tn to about $1.95tn – making it a key contributor to the fall in the overall value of the list.
The next largest sector is banking, which accounts for 15.5% of the value on the list, up from 15% in 2023. Below this is the value represented by cross-sector holding companies, led by Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company, with its market capitalisation of $236bn.
The utilities sector has increased its value share to 6.6%, up from 5.2%, driven by the rise of Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power, the market capitalisation of which has tripled from about $30bn to more than $90bn, putting the firm in third place in the MEED Top 100.
It is unclear what the drivers of this activity are, since Acwa Power’s price-to-sales ratio remains modest. One possibility is that investors expect its revenue performance to improve significantly amid the firm’s onboarding of new assets and projects in the kingdom. The company has long since risen to be the biggest power developer in the region in terms of power generation asset equity.
The property sector has also met with modest success amid rising real estate prices, with developers on the list adding $18bn in value and raising the share of the property sector on the list from 1% to 1.5%.
The telecommunications sector meanwhile appears to have fallen out of favour, with the same set of listed companies on the list shedding $33bn in combined market capitalisation value and causing the share of the sector within the ranking to fall from 4.5% to 3.8%.
Overall, the stability of the MEED Top 100 list around the $3.7tn-$3.8tn mark over the past three years is a sign of the increasing maturity of the Mena capital markets amid a spree of IPOs and growing diversity among the listed companies and funds. It bodes well that even in this time of considerable geopolitical insecurity, the region’s top stocks have not given significant ground.
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Power market reshapes contractor landscape
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Commentary
Mark Dowdall
Power & water editorRegister for MEED’s 14-day trial access
The number of UAE-based power projects awarded under the traditional engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) model has fallen to its lowest level in the past decade.
Admittedly, this does not include the Covid year of 2020, but the point stands. Across the GCC, capital is still flowing into the sector at record levels. What has changed is how that capital is being deployed.
In a recent analysis, I revealed 2025 to be a record-breaking year, with the UAE’s power market recording its highest annual total for contract awards on record. Yet instead of a broad spread of smaller contracts, governments and utilities are concentrating investment in fewer larger and more complex schemes that are reshaping how the region’s energy systems are built and financed.
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In my recent annual ranking of private power developers across the GCC, the surge in power generation capacity owned by Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power was telling. Not only did the firm’s net equity grow by 70% in a single year, but it now eclipses the combined equity of the other leading developers in the region, a direct result of its dominant role in PIF-backed schemes. These projects, including multi-gigawatt solar and wind developments, are redefining the scale and structure of procurement.
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For governments, they deliver capacity without requiring large upfront capital commitments. For developers, they offer stable, long-term returns through secure offtake agreements.
But this concentration also narrows the field of opportunity. Where dozens of smaller EPC packages once supported a broad ecosystem of contractors and suppliers, today’s market is increasingly revolving around a handful of mega deals.
Competition is intensifying for fewer projects, and entry barriers, ranging from balance sheet strength to technical capabilities, are rising.
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It will follow a public-private partnership (PPP) delivery model that consolidates the entire scope under one consortium, streamlining delivery. However, this approach significantly reduces the number of prime contracting opportunities, with smaller EPC firms more likely to find themselves competing for limited subcontracting roles rather than leading bids.
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