Middle East equities weather the storm

30 May 2024

 

The combined value of the MEED Top 100 largest listed firms in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region dipped slightly to $3.7tn over the past year – from $3.8tn in 2023 – as rising regional geopolitical risk lent greater caution to international investment in emerging markets.

The past year has also seen several sector-by-sector trends, including downward pressure on the valuation of many companies in the oil and gas sector – Saudi Aramco included – amid weakening oil prices and mandatory production cuts. In the banking sector, on the other hand, many valuations have improved amid higher interest rate spreads and rising project activity.

Overall sentiment in Mena capital markets remains generally positive, with a strong showing of initial public offerings (IPOs) over the past 12 months, many of which were oversubscribed, and with several more major listings to come. In Saudi Arabia, Fakeeh Care Group is in the process of concluding what is expected to be the largest Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) IPO of 2024 after a booking period that was 119 times oversubscribed.

New listings

This year’s MEED Top 100 ranking includes five newly listed entries worth a combined $36bn, including two listings on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange – Adnoc Logistic & Services and Pure Health – and three listings on the Tadawul: Ades Holding Company, MBC Group and Saudi Logistics Services. 

Ades Holding raised the highest listing proceeds for the year, at $1.2bn, followed by Pure Health at $987m and Saudi Logistics Services at $678m. Pure Health also experienced the highest first-day gain, with its share price rising by 76% from the time of listing to close of business.

Overall, the Mena region hosted 48 IPOs in 2023, raising a total of $10.7bn, according to consultancy EY, with the activity concentrated in the GCC and Egypt. This was a 6% decrease in the number of IPOs and a 51% drop in proceeds compared to 2022.

In Q1 2024, there were 10 IPOs valued at $1.2bn, with nine listings from Saudi Arabia, according to EY. As of 9 May, there were a further 25 companies and 10 funds with plans to list by the end of the year, led by prospects in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. This forward-looking pipeline is again dominated by Saudi Arabia, where 21 companies have announced IPOs.

Top sectors

The ranking remains heavily weighted towards the oil and gas sector due to the size of Saudi Aramco, but the overall share of the sector on the list has declined slightly – from making up 61.3% of the total value in 2023 to representing 58.4% in this year’s list.

Saudi Aramco itself has dipped in value from $2.1tn to about $1.95tn – making it a key contributor to the fall in the overall value of the list.

The next largest sector is banking, which accounts for 15.5% of the value on the list, up from 15% in 2023. Below this is the value represented by cross-sector holding companies, led by Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company, with its market capitalisation of $236bn.

The utilities sector has increased its value share to 6.6%, up from 5.2%, driven by the rise of Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power, the market capitalisation of which has tripled from about $30bn to more than $90bn, putting the firm in third place in the MEED Top 100.

It is unclear what the drivers of this activity are, since Acwa Power’s price-to-sales ratio remains modest. One possibility is that investors expect its revenue performance to improve significantly amid the firm’s onboarding of new assets and projects in the kingdom. The company has long since risen to be the biggest power developer in the region in terms of power generation asset equity.

The property sector has also met with modest success amid rising real estate prices, with developers on the list adding $18bn in value and raising the share of the property sector on the list from 1% to 1.5%.

The telecommunications sector meanwhile appears to have fallen out of favour, with the same set of listed companies on the list shedding $33bn in combined market capitalisation value and causing the share of the sector within the ranking to fall from 4.5% to 3.8%.

Overall, the stability of the MEED Top 100 list around the $3.7tn-$3.8tn mark over the past three years is a sign of the increasing maturity of the Mena capital markets amid a spree of IPOs and growing diversity among the listed companies and funds. It bodes well that even in this time of considerable geopolitical insecurity, the region’s top stocks have not given significant ground.

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John Bambridge
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    29 August 2025

     

    With the energy transition gaining momentum and demand for transport fuels plateauing, it is no longer lucrative for state-owned hydrocarbons producers in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region to channel significant amounts of their crude oil towards refineries.

    This does not mean that regional energy producers have curtailed their spending on refinery expansions or greenfield projects, however. A total of $21.62bn was spent on Mena downstream oil projects in 2024, with capital expenditure (capex) at nearly $7bn so far this year, according to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    Mena energy producers have also ramped up their investment in expanding gas processing potential, as global demand for natural gas – especially from the power generation sector – rises exponentially. 

    The region invested a total of $25.67bn in gas processing projects in 2024, and in 2025, MEED Projects puts that figure at $9.3bn year-to-date.

    Meanwhile, the surge in petrochemicals projects in the Mena region over the years has also been significant. 

    The drive among regional players to increase petrochemicals output capacity is being facilitated by a rapid rise in chemicals demand from various industries and supply chains, as well as by the fact that converting oil and gas molecules into high-value chemicals is economically rewarding for hydrocarbons producers.

    Preparing for growth

    Global petrochemicals capacity is poised to grow significantly by 2030. Asia is set to dominate this, driven by a high demand for petrochemicals in the automotive, construction and electronics industries, according to UK analytics firm GlobalData.

    The Middle East is also set to undergo an increase in production capacity, with a total capacity of 122.1 million tonnes a year (t/y) projected in 2025-30. Capex on production plants is expected to reach $69bn in the coming years, according to a recent report by GlobalData.

    Steady spending

    An estimated $17.8bn was spent on engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for chemicals projects in 2024, with spending year-to-date of about $5.8bn, MEED Projects says.

    The region’s biggest chemicals project under EPC execution is the $11bn Amiral project in Saudi Arabia, which represents the expansion of Saudi Aramco Total Refining & Petrochemical Company (Satorp) in the petrochemicals sector. 

    Satorp, in which Saudi Aramco and France’s TotalEnergies hold 62.5% and 37.5% stakes, respectively, operates a
    refinery complex in Jubail that has the capacity to process 465,000 barrels a day (b/d) of Aramco’s Arabian Heavy crude oil grade to produce refined products such as diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, benzene, paraxylene, propylene, coke and sulphur.

    Integrated with the existing Satorp refinery in Jubail, the Amiral complex will house one of the largest mixed-load steam crackers in the Gulf, with the capacity to produce 1.65 million tonnes a year (t/y) of ethylene and other industrial gases.

    This expansion is expected to attract more than $4bn in additional investment in several industrial sectors, including carbon fibres, lubricants, drilling fluids, detergents, food additives, automotive parts and tyres.

    Another large-scale project under execution is the Al-Faw integrated refinery and petrochemicals project in Iraq. State-owned Southern Refineries Company brought on board China National Chemical Engineering Company in May 2024 to develop the estimated $8bn project.

    The Al-Faw project is being implemented in two stages. The first phase involves developing a refinery will have a capacity of 300,000 b/d and will produce oil derivatives for both domestic and international markets. The second phase relates to the construction of a petrochemicals complex with a capacity of 3 million t/y.

    EPC works are also progressing on the $6bn Ras Laffan petrochemicals complex in Qatar, which will have an ethane cracker that will be the largest in the Middle East and one of the largest in the world.

    The project is being developed by a joint venture (JV) of QatarEnergy and US-based Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem). QatarEnergy owns a majority 70% stake in the JV. CPChem, which is 50:50 owned by US firms Chevron and Phillips 66, holds the remaining 30%.

    The Ras Laffan petrochemicals complex is expected to begin production in 2026. It consists of an ethane cracker with a capacity of 2.1 million t/y of ethylene. This will raise Qatar’s ethylene production potential by nearly 70%.

    The complex includes two polyethylene trains with a combined output of 1.68 million t/y of high-density polyethylene polymer products, raising Qatar’s overall petrochemicals production capacity by 82%, to almost 14 million t/y.

    A JV of South Korean contractor Samsung Engineering and CTCI of Taiwan was awarded the EPC contract for the ethylene plant, which is understood to be valued at $3.5bn. The EPC contract for the polyethylene plant was awarded to Italian contractor Maire Tecnimont, which announced that the value of its contract was $1.3bn.

    Chemicals uptick

    While the downstream hydrocarbons sector in the Mena region has so far seen significant capex allocated to refinery modification and expansion projects, and robust spending on gas processing projects, chemicals schemes are set to dominate spending going forward.

    Data from MEED Projects suggests that the value of planned chemicals projects in the Mena region is four times greater than the combined value of downstream oil and gas projects.

    Saudi Arabia’s liquids-to-chemicals programme, which aims to attain a conversion rate of 4 million b/d of Saudi Aramco’s crude oil production into high-value chemicals, accounts for the majority of planned chemicals projects in the region.

    Aramco has divided its liquids-to-chemicals programme in Saudi Arabia into four main projects. It has made progress this year by signing JV investment agreements with international partners for these projects:

    • Conversion of the Saudi Aramco Jubail Refinery Company (Sasref) complex in Jubail into an integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex through the addition of a mixed-feed cracker. The project also involves building an ethane cracker that will draw feedstock from the Sasref refinery. Front-end engineering and design on the project is under way and is being performed by Samsung E&A.
       
    • Conversion of the Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Company (Yasref) complex in Yanbu into an integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex through the addition of a mixed-feed cracker. China’s Sinopec is a JV partner in the project.
       
    • Conversion of the Saudi Aramco Mobil Refinery Company (Samref) complex in Yanbu into an integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex through the addition of a mixed-feed cracker. US oil and gas producer ExxonMobil has signed a memorandum of understanding with Aramco to potentially invest in the project.
       
    • Building a crude oil-to-chemicals complex in Ras Al-Khair in the kingdom’s Eastern Province. Progress on this project remains slow.

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    The planned San VI complex will have an output capacity of 1.2 million metric t/y of blue ammonia and 1.1 million metric t/y of urea and specialised agri-nutrients.

     

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  • Kuwait’s political hiatus brings opportunity

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    After Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah took the unusual step of suspending Kuwait’s parliament in May 2024, the country anticipated a rush of reforms and the unblocking of the project pipeline.

    In March 2025, the government delivered on the most significant part of that, passing the long-awaited new public debt law, allowing $65bn in sovereign and Islamic bonds to be issued over the next 50 years. In June, Kuwait began moving ahead with plans to issue bonds worth an estimated KD2bn ($6.6bn) to cover its projected financing needs for the 2025-26 fiscal year.

    With the ability to now take on debt as needed, the country’s budget can be decoupled to a degree from the volatility of global oil market cycles. Also significant is the reported consideration of the setup of a KD50bn ($163bn) domestic investment fund that could become a transformative engine for Kuwait’s future.

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    > CONSTRUCTION: Momentum builds in Kuwait construction
    > DATABANK: Kuwait’s growth picture improves

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

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