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Middle East equities weather the storm

30 May 2024

 

The combined value of the MEED Top 100 largest listed firms in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region dipped slightly to $3.7tn over the past year – from $3.8tn in 2023 – as rising regional geopolitical risk lent greater caution to international investment in emerging markets.

The past year has also seen several sector-by-sector trends, including downward pressure on the valuation of many companies in the oil and gas sector – Saudi Aramco included – amid weakening oil prices and mandatory production cuts. In the banking sector, on the other hand, many valuations have improved amid higher interest rate spreads and rising project activity.

Overall sentiment in Mena capital markets remains generally positive, with a strong showing of initial public offerings (IPOs) over the past 12 months, many of which were oversubscribed, and with several more major listings to come. In Saudi Arabia, Fakeeh Care Group is in the process of concluding what is expected to be the largest Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) IPO of 2024 after a booking period that was 119 times oversubscribed.

New listings

This year’s MEED Top 100 ranking includes five newly listed entries worth a combined $36bn, including two listings on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange – Adnoc Logistic & Services and Pure Health – and three listings on the Tadawul: Ades Holding Company, MBC Group and Saudi Logistics Services. 

Ades Holding raised the highest listing proceeds for the year, at $1.2bn, followed by Pure Health at $987m and Saudi Logistics Services at $678m. Pure Health also experienced the highest first-day gain, with its share price rising by 76% from the time of listing to close of business.

Overall, the Mena region hosted 48 IPOs in 2023, raising a total of $10.7bn, according to consultancy EY, with the activity concentrated in the GCC and Egypt. This was a 6% decrease in the number of IPOs and a 51% drop in proceeds compared to 2022.

In Q1 2024, there were 10 IPOs valued at $1.2bn, with nine listings from Saudi Arabia, according to EY. As of 9 May, there were a further 25 companies and 10 funds with plans to list by the end of the year, led by prospects in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. This forward-looking pipeline is again dominated by Saudi Arabia, where 21 companies have announced IPOs.

Top sectors

The ranking remains heavily weighted towards the oil and gas sector due to the size of Saudi Aramco, but the overall share of the sector on the list has declined slightly – from making up 61.3% of the total value in 2023 to representing 58.4% in this year’s list.

Saudi Aramco itself has dipped in value from $2.1tn to about $1.95tn – making it a key contributor to the fall in the overall value of the list.

The next largest sector is banking, which accounts for 15.5% of the value on the list, up from 15% in 2023. Below this is the value represented by cross-sector holding companies, led by Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company, with its market capitalisation of $236bn.

The utilities sector has increased its value share to 6.6%, up from 5.2%, driven by the rise of Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power, the market capitalisation of which has tripled from about $30bn to more than $90bn, putting the firm in third place in the MEED Top 100.

It is unclear what the drivers of this activity are, since Acwa Power’s price-to-sales ratio remains modest. One possibility is that investors expect its revenue performance to improve significantly amid the firm’s onboarding of new assets and projects in the kingdom. The company has long since risen to be the biggest power developer in the region in terms of power generation asset equity.

The property sector has also met with modest success amid rising real estate prices, with developers on the list adding $18bn in value and raising the share of the property sector on the list from 1% to 1.5%.

The telecommunications sector meanwhile appears to have fallen out of favour, with the same set of listed companies on the list shedding $33bn in combined market capitalisation value and causing the share of the sector within the ranking to fall from 4.5% to 3.8%.

Overall, the stability of the MEED Top 100 list around the $3.7tn-$3.8tn mark over the past three years is a sign of the increasing maturity of the Mena capital markets amid a spree of IPOs and growing diversity among the listed companies and funds. It bodes well that even in this time of considerable geopolitical insecurity, the region’s top stocks have not given significant ground.

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John Bambridge

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    GAMING

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    Autonomous vehicles and electric mobility are reshaping how people and goods will be transported

    BATTERIES

    The lithium-ion battery market is poised for substantial growth, with projections indicating an expansion from $130.5bn in 2023 to an impressive $408.3bn by 2035. This trajectory represents a consistent 10% annual growth rate, reflecting the increasing global demand for advanced energy storage solutions.

    Lithium-ion batteries will maintain their technological supremacy, characterised by superior energy density and rapid charging capabilities. Simultaneously, sodium-ion batteries are emerging as an intriguing alternative, attracting significant investment.

    Geopolitical complexities and potential mineral supply disruptions – particularly concerning lithium, nickel and cobalt – are anticipated to create temporary global battery shortages. Despite ongoing advances in recycling technologies, these supply-chain challenges will pose significant obstacles for manufacturers and consumers alike.

    With the push for renewable energy and electric vehicles, the Middle East is exploring advanced battery technologies. Efforts are being made to localise battery production and establish strategic partnerships for energy storage solutions that are tailored to the region’s climatic conditions.

    Morocco is planning to establish the region’s first battery gigafactory, with a planned capacity of 20 gigawatt-hours annually, focusing on electric vehicle batteries.

    Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is also establishing battery manufacturing capabilities to meet growing demand for lithium-ion batteries due to investments in renewable energy projects and EV adoption.

    MINERALS

    The global demand for critical minerals is experiencing an unprecedented surge, driven by ambitious net-zero targets and the rapid adoption of transformative energy transition technologies. Lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements have become pivotal resources in the production of electric vehicles, solar panels and wind farms, creating significant pressure on mineral prices and global supply chains.

    China’s historical monopoly on rare earth element production has gradually diminished, with its market share dropping from a near-total 97% in 2010 to approximately 70% today. 

    While other nations are pursuing diversification strategies, China remains a dominant force in both rare earth element production and refinement, maintaining substantial control over this critical market segment.

    Latin America is emerging as a crucial player in the critical minerals landscape. Countries like Argentina, Bolivia and Chile boast extensive lithium reserves, while Brasil holds the world’s third-largest rare earth element reserves. This geological wealth positions the region as a potential game-changer in global mineral supply.

    The Middle East region’s focus on economic diversification has likewise spurred interest in mining critical minerals. Significant mining projects are under way, including copper and gold projects in Oman and expansions of existing gold mines in Saudi Arabia. 

    There is a regional race to secure lithium deposits and access to other rare earth elements necessary for the technology and energy sectors. 

    GLOBALDATA REPORTS

    This article was written by GlobalData Thematic Intelligence. Click here to see more thematic research.

     

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    MEED Editorial
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    However, on 16 December, SWA cancelled the contract and informed the bidders that it intended to recalibrate the plant’s capacity and issue a new tender over the coming weeks.

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    MEED recently reported that Najran-based Emar Al-Janoub for Contracting (EJC) had won the contract to build the Ras Al-Khair SWRO plant.

    EJC offered SR2.346bn ($625.6m) to win the contract, seeing off competition from other bidders including the local Civil Works Company and Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works, and the Saudi branch of India’s VA Tech Wabag. 

    SWA is the world’s largest producer of desalinated water, with a capacity of at least 6.6 million cm/d. Plants using older and more energy-intensive techniques, such as multi-stage flash technology, account for the majority of the current capacity.

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    Jennifer Aguinaldo