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Mena pushes for nuclear future

2 August 2023

 

The Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region is set to register a rise of at least 30 per cent in power generation capacity by 2030 due to population growth and industrial expansion.

The rapid increase requires a strategy to advance energy security while reducing carbon emissions and fossil-fuel dependence, creating strong interest in nuclear power and renewable energy.

Iran has a 1GW nuclear plant in Bushehr and construction is under way for a second 300MW reactor in Khuzestan.

In the UAE, three of the four 1.4GW reactors at the GCC region’s first multi-unit nuclear power plant in Barakah, Abu Dhabi, are now connected to the electricity grid.

Egypt, in partnership with Russia’s Rosatom, is building its first nuclear power plant in El-Debaa.

Riyadh, meanwhile, tendered the contract to build its first large-scale power plant in Duwaiheen last year.

Beyond the GCC, Jordan has announced the production of 20 kilograms of yellowcake from 160 tonnes of uranium ore at a newly operational processing facility, while Morocco has completed a study supporting a plan to go nuclear.

Alternative base load

Apart from Saudi Arabia, these countries have significant renewable capacity as of 2023. All aim for renewables to account for up to half of installed capacity by the end of the decade.

Nuclear is seen as an alternative base load to thermal capacity to counter the intermittency of renewables in the absence of viable storage solutions. This has helped build the case for adding nuclear to the energy mix – although, in the UAE, the Barakah plant predated the renewable energy programme.

The decarbonisation potential of nuclear may be overstated, however, says a leading regional expert on utility projects.

“We should use all available clean-carbon solutions to decarbonise all industrial and human consumption and endeavour,” says Paddy Padmanathan, former CEO of Saudi utility Acwa Power. “Clearly we need to decarbonise as soon as possible.”

The rate at which the residual carbon budget is being consumed implies that even zero emissions by 2050 will not be sufficient, according to the executive. This begs the question: Which technologies will deliver solutions at scale to quickly achieve decarbonisation.

Nuclear power plants, which – with the exception of Abu Dhabi’s Barakah – have struggled to be delivered on time and within budget, may not be a viable solution, says Padmanathan, who now sits on the board of the UK energy startup Xlinks and green hydrogen firm Zhero.

He says nuclear power plants outside China have taken twice as long to build than planned and have typically cost more than twice their budget. Such capital expenditure and long construction times mean nuclear may only make sense if you have lots of spare cash, he adds.

Hence it is unwise to factor in nuclear to plans to decarbonise power generation by 2050, Padmanathan argues. “We already have much – if not all – the technologies to get the job done,” he notes, referring to renewable energy and battery storage solutions, among others. 

He continues: “One cannot bank on such a rare outlier as Barakah, which got completed with only a marginal increase in cost and time, and rely on nuclear to deliver any meaningful level of flexible base load.”

Saudi programme

Budget availability and the urgency of decarbonisation aside, other factors complicate nuclear projects in the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom’s nuclear energy programme dates back to 2010 with the creation of King Abdullah City for Atomic & Renewable Energy (KA-Care). In 2021, KA-Care invited consultancy bids for its first large-scale nuclear power project in Duwaiheen, close to the Qatar border. It awarded the financial, legal and technical advisory services contracts last year.

In October 2022, Riyadh issued the request for proposals for the main contract to Russian, South Korean, Chinese and French firms.

Earlier this year, it formed the Saudi Nuclear Energy Holding Company, which plans to develop nuclear power plants as early as 2027 to produce electricity and to desalinate seawater, as well as for thermal energy applications. 

Most recently, the state offtaker Saudi Power Procurement Company floated a tender for advisers to help prepare and review project agreements related to the procurement of electricity from Saudi’s first nuclear power plant, raising further speculation about the nuclear project.

The Saudi programme, particularly the kingdom’s plans to mine uranium as part of its economic and industrial strategy, is a thorn in Washington’s side. It is understood to have been a key theme in discussions when US President Joe Biden visited Riyadh last year.

Washington is wary of the nuclear power plant contract being awarded to Chinese or Russian contractors, not only because this could drive Riyadh closer to geopolitical rivals of the US, but also because it weakens US demands for Riyadh to abandon its nuclear fuel cycle ambitions before signing any bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement (NCA), otherwise known in Washington as a 123 agreement.

Uranium has to be enriched to up to 5 per cent for use in nuclear power plants and to 90 per cent to become weapons-grade. According to an Energy Intelligence report, the stalemate between Washington and Riyadh centres around US demands for Saudi Arabia to commit to the NCA and not pursue a domestic uranium enrichment or reprocessing programme.

The US also wants the kingdom to sign and ratify the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Additional Protocol, allowing nuclear inspectors fuller access to Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme.

The report alludes to the US supporting South Korean contractor Kepco’s bid to develop the nuclear plant because it provides Washington with a final lever for pressuring Riyadh to accept its conditions for the 123 agreement and IAEA protocol.

Done deal

Biden’s visit did not produce material results, although unconfirmed reports say he may have given his blessing to the project, while others argue Riyadh did not need it.

“I think, in the end, this is a done deal, meaning that Saudi Arabia will pursue a nuclear energy programme,” says Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in the US.

“They will pursue domestic uranium mining and likely enrichment, and we will see a more global ramp-up of nuclear energy use – and also, over time, possibly areas of proliferation in security uses not just in the Mena region, but across a wide geography.”

The US can either take solace from the fact that it takes time to develop a nuclear project, or it can – if it is not too late – revisit its relationship with Saudi Arabia, especially in the wake of a rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh under a deal brokered by China.

“Moving into design and procurement phases … whether with Russian, Chinese or South Korean [firms] … heightens already sensitive notions of strategic competition in the Gulf, as the US understands it,” notes Young.

In hindsight, it appears the US government has under-appreciated the seriousness of the Saudi plan or the importance of localised industry and mining as a domestic economic and security interest.

“Saudi Arabia sees an opportunity to play the US against its other options, so this is a unique moment of bargaining in which the nuclear file can be traded against broader foreign policy priorities for the Saudi leadership,” Young says.

Russian conundrum

The Barakah nuclear process, which entailed Abu Dhabi signing a 123 agreement with Washington, is seen as a gold standard. Emirates Nuclear Energy Company (Enec) signed supply contracts with France’s Areva and Russia’s Tenex for the supply of uranium concentrates and for the provision of conversion and enrichment services.

It then contracted Uranium One, part of Russia’s Rosatom, and UK-headquartered Rio Tinto for the supply of natural uranium for the plant. US-based ConverDyn provided conversion services, while British firm Urenco provided enrichment services.

The enriched uranium was supplied to Kepco Nuclear Fuels to manufacture the fuel assemblies for use at the Barakah nuclear power plant.

Fuel supply, processing, removal and storage are now complicated by Russia’s conflict and its global reputation, notes Young. The reference to Russia is important, given that Iran has provided drones to the country for use in its war with Ukraine, in exchange for the sale of advanced military equipment and cyber warfare. This is seen as a direct threat to Opec ally Riyadh.

The Tehran-Riyadh rapprochement only makes sense from a viewpoint where a dead Iran nuclear deal could expedite the Islamic Republic’s plan to build a bomb, potentially leading to a nuclear arms raise in the region, which everyone – particularly the two countries’ biggest client, China – would rather avoid.

Despite these complexities, the regional and global push to build nuclear capacity following the invasion of Ukraine and the threat to global gas supplies does not appear to be slowing.

The UAE, for instance, has partnered with the US to mobilise $100bn to support clean energy projects at home and abroad, and has pledged $30bn for energy cooperation with South Korea. Both these commitments involve significant investments in renewable and civilian nuclear energy projects.

This suggests that nuclear as a clean energy option is here to stay, despite mounting costs and geopolitical risks

Unfortunately, however, in a region marked by perennial instability, there are few incentives for the involved countries to be more transparent about their programmes.

While the evolving rapprochement between countries that have previously considered each other existential threats might not eliminate the spectre of a nuclear arms race, it can defuse tensions in the interim while helping push decarbonisation agendas.

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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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    In 2023, power generation projects accounted for an estimated 79% of total contract awards, with T&D projects accounting for the rest.

    A different picture is emerging in 2024, with data in the first nine months of the year suggesting that generation contract awards are retreating to about 64% of the total. This is due to increased T&D capital spending that has so far driven a 150% increase in award value compared to full-year 2023.

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    The UAE, meanwhile, has awarded three key power contracts this year, including for the Al-Ajban solar IPP, which was won by a team of France’s EDF and South Korea’s Korea Western Power Company (Kowepo), and for the Dhafra waste-to-energy project, which a team of Japan’s Marubeni Corporation, Japan Overseas Infrastructure Investment Corporation and Zurich-headquartered Hitachi Zosen Inova is developing.

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    2025 outlook

    The Mena power projects pipeline remains robust, with over $45bn-worth of contracts under bid evaluation and another $50bn in the prequalification stage as of late 2024, according to MEED Projects.

    Saudi Arabia is likely to remain dominant, particularly if SPPC and the PIF activate a plan by the Energy Ministry to procure 20,000MW of renewable energy capacity annually until it reaches its target for renewables to account for half of its energy production mix by 2030.

    Morocco has the second-largest power projects pipeline thanks to several planned schemes to export clean energy and green hydrogen to Europe. Notably, the tender is under way for the country’s first two solar PV plus battery energy storage system (bess) projects, Noor Midelt 2 and 3.

    Abu Dhabi also maintains a substantial renewables and gas-fired generation project pipeline. It has several upcoming IPPs with a total combined capacity of over 7,000MW, of which more than 6,000MW is in the tendering stage.

    While the procurement process for Saudi Arabia’s first nuclear power plant in Duwaiheen has been delayed, the UAE has plans to procure the next phase of its nuclear power plant project in Barakah.

    Green industrial development in steel and aluminium, as is being undertaken in the UAE, is a driver for ongoing clean energy capacity buildout, notes Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Centre on Global Energy Policy.

    Egypt, Iran, Kuwait and Iraq have the next largest power projects pipelines. The key drivers in each state vary, with populous countries Egypt and Iran seeking to develop integrated green hydrogen hubs and nuclear power capacity, respectively, while Kuwait remains a promising market with extended plans to procure both conventional and renewable energy capacity to address peak demand.

    There are indications that Iraq’s first utility-scale solar PV scheme – a 1GW project being developed by France’s TotalEnergies – will head into the construction stage in the coming months, along with other similar projects for which preliminary agreements were signed by Iraqi authorities in 2021-22.

    Oman is actively pursuing renewable energy capacity, with the state offtaker having tendered the contracts for two wind IPPs in September 2024.

    In Oman and Qatar, the main downstream companies, Petroleum Development Oman and QatarEnergy, are developing renewable energy capacity as a means of mitigating their greenhouse gas emissions, as well as to support their respective government’s net-zero targets.

    In November, Bahrain started the procurement process for its fourth independent water and power project (IWPP) in Sitra, which replaced the previously planned Al-Dur IWPP 3 scheme.

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    SEC affiliate National Grid Saudi Arabia has awarded EPC contracts for several bess packages to local firm Algihaz this year. In August, it tendered a contract for the construction of a further 2,500MW of energy storage capacity. 

    In parallel, the procurement process is under way for the first independent bess packages in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, with other utilities expected to follow suit in procuring bess using an IPP model. Bess will boost grid flexibility and spinning reserves in the face of increased renewable energy capacity and demand.

    In addition to bess and several gigawatts of solar and wind capacity, Saudi Arabia gigaproject developer Neom, which plans to be powered 100% by renewable energy by the end of the decade, is also considering a network of large-scale pumped hydropower storage plants.   

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    She adds that a telephone survey of 1,000 small and medium-sized businesses in Morocco about their perception of the accessibility and affordability of renewable energy yielded surprising results.

    “They strongly suggested a lack of support, given that smaller enterprises continue to see power outages and this has in many cases caused damage to their equipment and abilities to stay open and service customers.

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    The Middle East’s projects market in 2024 has been fuelled by the same heady cocktail of favourable oil prices, continued investment into oil and gas projects, government infrastructure spending, the energy transition, real estate investment and economic diversification that propelled the total value of awards in 2023 to record levels.

    By the end of October 2024, there were $262bn of contract awards across the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects. By the end of the year, the 2024 total may top the $290bn recorded in 2023. 

    While economic diversification is a priority for governments across the region, oil and gas remains a key sector for project awards. The three largest contract awards in 2024 were from the sector.

    The top-ranked contract by value was a $20bn deal awarded to Iranian companies Petropars, Oil Industries Engineering & Construction, Khatam Al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters and Mapna Group for the South Pars gas field pressure-boosting project in Iran by Pars Oil & Gas Company.

    Next was the $8bn deal won by China’s Hualu Engineering Technology Company for delivering the Al-Faw refinery in Iraq for Southern Refineries Company.

    The third-largest award was a $5.5bn contract won by a joint venture of France’s Technip Energies, Japan’s JGC Corporation and the UAE’s NMDC Group for the Ruwais low-carbon liquefied natural gas terminal project by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc).

    These contract awards mean that the oil and gas sector accounted for 32% of the $262bn total that was recorded in the Mena region by the end of October 2024.

    Breaking down the sector into oil and gas separately reveals a telling trend. Oil accounts for 12% of awards, while gas accounts for 20%. These numbers reflect the growing importance of gas as a transition fuel that is cleaner and more environmentally friendly than oil, but still provides the dependable energy that many renewable alternatives still do not offer. 

    Strong performances

    Construction is the second-largest sector after oil and gas, accounting for 23% of awards. Its significance has dropped in 2024 compared to 2023, when it accounted for 32% of contract awards. 

    In terms of value, there were $68bn of contract awards in 2024 until the end of October. If the same pace is maintained during November and December, the 2024 total is expected to be about $81bn, which falls short of the 2023 total of $97bn. 

    While the total value of contract awards may have dropped, there was the largest construction contract award on record in 2024 – a $4.7bn deal secured by Italian contractor WeBuild for the construction of three dams for the Trojena mountain resort at Saudi Arabia’s Neom gigaproject. 

    The power sector accounted for 18% of the total awards during the period, the largest of which was the $5.3bn contract won by Saudi Arabia’s Alfanar Projects and China Electric Power Equipment & Technology Company for the 7,000MW Saudi Central, Western and Southern Regions high-voltage direct current overhead transmission lines project being developed by Saudi Electricity Company.

    When analysed by country, Saudi Arabia and the UAE dominate the market, and together they account for over 60% of contract awards across the region in 2024 up to the end of October. 

    As the region’s largest economy, it is unsurprising that Saudi Arabia accounts for the largest share, with 38.6%, followed by the UAE, which had 22%. The next most significant country was Iran, which came in a distant third with 8% of contract awards. 

    The outsized contribution of Saudi Arabia and the UAE reflects the relative economic stability found in the GCC compared to other countries in the region that are grappling with the impact of conflict and other associated financial pressures. 

    Looking beyond the contract awards numbers, the biggest project announcement in 2024 came in April, when Abu Dhabi investment vehicle ADQ released details of plans to invest $35bn in Egypt. The plans involve ADQ acquiring the development rights for Ras El-Hekma, a planned new city on Egypt’s northern Mediterranean coast, for $24bn. 

    The development has been billed as having the potential to attract over $150bn in investment.

    In October, ADQ appointed its subsidiary Modon Holding as the master developer for Ras El-Hekma. Modon will act as the master developer for the entire development, which covers more than 170 square kilometres (sq km). 

    Modon will develop the first phase, which covers 50 sq km, and the remaining 120 sq km will delivered with private developers.

    Key partners for delivering the project have already been found. For construction, Modon has signed a framework agreement with Egyptian firm Orascom Construction to serve as the primary contractor for the project’s first phase. 

    Modon also signed a deal with Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) for developing, financing and operating greenfield utility infrastructure projects, water desalination projects, electricity transmission and distribution projects and wastewater projects at the Ras El-Hekma development.

    While economic diversification is a priority for governments across the region, oil and gas remains a key sector for project awards

    Future prospects

    Looking ahead, the performance of the projects market in 2025 will depend  on the favourable macroeconomic conditions remaining in the GCC, which if the other four members of the six-nation bloc are added, accounted for nearly 72% of the Mena region’s total contract awards during the first 10 months of 2024. 

    The key metric to watch in 2025 will be the oil price. In mid-November, the price of Brent Crude was $72 a barrel, which is below what many in the region, including Saudi Arabia, require if they are to maintain their project spending plans. 

    The outlook for oil prices is uncertain and after oil producers’ group Opec cut its global demand growth forecasts for both 2024 and 2025 for the fourth time, highlighting economic weakness in China, India and other regions, there are concerns prices will dip in 2025. 

    The election of Donald Trump as US president adds to those concerns. He has promised to “drill, baby, drill”, and a sharp uptick in output from the US could cause oil prices to soften further.

    Trump is also a protectionist and has said ‘tariff’ is his favourite word. Most of his new tariffs are expected to be aimed at China, which could mean that Chinese companies look to other markets that remain open to them, including the Middle East.

    The appeal is clear to see. Chinese contractors already command a dominant position in the region – particularly in North Africa and Iraq – and Chinese companies will find great appeal in affluent markets such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which can offer large-scale project opportunities.

    The other metric that will drive the projects market in 2025 is real estate. In the UAE, much of the ongoing development work is supported by the buoyant property market, particularly in Dubai, which has grown strongly throughout 2024. 

    According to a report by data and analytics company Reidin, property sales in the UAE reached AED46.52bn ($12.7bn) in October 2024, marking a 55% year-on-year increase. Demand also remains robust, with 19,500 transactions recorded in October, reflecting a 72% rise compared to the same period in 2023. 

    Looking ahead to 2025, Reidin says that the outlook remains optimistic as sustained demand, rising property values and steady inventory turnover are all expected to continue driving growth. 

    While the forecast supports a positive outlook for construction in the UAE, those who have seen Dubai’s property market collapse before will be keenly watching the data in 2025.

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