Mena economies living dangerously
27 December 2023

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again
Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.
Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year. Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.
The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies.
GDP growth
The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.
Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost.
Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.
As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024.
Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.
“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert.
“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.”
In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.
Government spending
Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power.
Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget. This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects.
That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024.
There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.
For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years.
The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible.
“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”
El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”
Regional trade
There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.
The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.
“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”
Near-term challenges
While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown.
Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly.
Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country
Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures.
Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows.
The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households.
A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms. Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.
Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre.
Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza.
Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.
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Can the Gulf build back better? The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. “The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.” It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED. “One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. “We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen. But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.” |
Exclusive from Meed
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Ruwais industrial complex struck by drones10 March 2026
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Abu Dhabi receives bids for 3.3GW Al-Nouf IPP10 March 2026
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Eighty-nine firms express Qassim airport interest10 March 2026
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Egypt brings new gas wells online10 March 2026
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Ruwais industrial complex struck by drones10 March 2026
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Abu Dhabi authorities are responding to a fire that has broken out at a facility in Ruwais industrial complex, caused by a drone attack.
The Ruwais industrial complex, located in Abu Dhabi's Al-Dhafra region, houses the world's fourth-largest single-site oil refinery and is operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc).
No injuries have been reported at this time, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said.
The UAE continues to intercept drones and missiles fired from Iran, as attacks on the Gulf countries continue for a 11th day in the ongoing regional conflict.
Apart from the Ruwais refining complex, which has a capacity of 922,000 barrels a day (b/d) of crude oil and condensates, Ruwais industrial complex is also home to petrochemicals producer Borouge’s main production complex.
Additionally, Adnoc is in an advanced stage of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project within the Ruwais industrial complex, which will have the capacity to produce about 9.6 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG from two processing trains, each with a capacity of 4.8 million t/y. When the project is commissioned, which is due to take place in 2028, Adnoc’s LNG production capacity will more than double to about 15 million t/y.
Separately, Taziz – a 60:40 joint venture of Adnoc Group and Abu Dhabi’s industrial holding company ADQ – is overseeing the development of at least seven specialty chemicals plants in its planned derivatives zone in Ruwais Industrial City.
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Contractors submit bids for Dorra offshore gas project packages10 March 2026

Contractors have submitted bids to Al-Khafji Joint Operations (KJO) for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on a project to develop natural gas from the Dorra gas field, located in the waters of the Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone.
KJO, which is jointly owned by Saudi Aramco subsidiary Aramco Gulf Operations Company and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) subsidiary Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (KGOC), has divided the project’s scope of work into four EPC packages – three offshore and one onshore.
Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH) has won package one of the Dorra facilities project, which covers the EPC of seven offshore jackets and the laying of intra-field pipelines. The contract awarded by KJO to L&TEH is estimated to be valued at $140m-$150m, MEED reported in October.
Contractors submitted bids for the remaining three packages – offshore packages 2A and 2B and onshore package three by the final deadline of 9 March, according to sources.
KJO had extended the bid submission deadlines for these packages several times since last year.
The EPC scope of work for package 2A includes Dorra gas field wellhead topsides, flowlines and umbilicals. Package 2B involves the central gathering platform complex, export pipelines and cables. Package three includes the EPC of onshore gas processing facilities.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are pressing ahead with their plan to jointly produce 1 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas from the Dorra gas field.
The two countries have been producing oil from the Neutral Zone – primarily from the onshore Wafra field and offshore Khafji field – since at least the 1950s. With a growing need to increase natural gas production, they have been working to exploit the Dorra offshore field, understood to be the only gas field in the Neutral Zone.
Discovered in 1965, the Dorra gas field is estimated to hold 20 trillion cubic metres of gas and 310 million barrels of oil.
The Dorra facilities scheme is one of three multibillion-dollar projects launched by subsidiaries of Saudi Aramco and KPC to produce and process gas from the Dorra field that has advanced in the past few months.
AGOC onshore Khafji gas plant
AGOC has set a current bid submission deadline of 22 April for seven EPC packages as part of a project to construct the Khafji gas plant, which will process gas from the Dorra field onshore Saudi Arabia.
MEED previously reported that AGOC issued main tenders for the seven EPC packages in 2025. Contractors were initially set deadlines of 24 October for technical bid submissions and 9 November for the submission of commercial bids, which was then extended by AGOC until 22 December.
The seven EPC packages cover a range of works, including open-art and licensed process facilities, pipelines, industrial support infrastructure, site preparation, overhead transmission lines, power supply systems and main operational and administrative buildings.
France-based Technip Energies has carried out a concept study and front-end engineering and design (feed) work on the entire Dorra gas field development programme.
Progress has been hampered by a geopolitical dispute over ownership of the Dorra gas field. Iran, which refers to the field as Arash, claims it partially extends into Iranian territory and asserts that Tehran should be a stakeholder in its development. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia maintain that the field lies entirely within their jointly administered Neutral Zone – also known as the Divided Zone – and that Iran has no legal basis for its claim.
In February 2024, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia reiterated their claim to the Dorra field in a joint statement issued during an official meeting in Riyadh of Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud.
Since that show of strength and unity, projects targeting the production and processing of gas from the Dorra field have gained momentum.
KGOC onshore processing facilities
KGOC has initiated early engagement with contractors for the main EPC tendering process for a planned Dorra onshore gas processing facility, which is to be located in Kuwait.
KGOC is at the feed stage of the project, which is estimated to be valued at up to $3.3bn. The firm is now expected to issue the main EPC tender within the first quarter of this year, MEED recently reported.
The proposed facility will receive gas from a pipeline from the Dorra offshore field, which is being separately developed by KJO. The complex will have the capacity to process up to 632 million cf/d of gas and 88.9 million barrels a day of condensates from the Dorra field.
The facility will be located near the Al-Zour refinery, owned by another KPC subsidiary, Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company.
A 700,000-square-metre plot has been allocated next to the Al-Zour refinery for the gas processing facility and discussions regarding survey work are ongoing. The site could require shoring, backfilling and dewatering.
The onshore gas processing plant will also supply surplus gas to KPC’s upstream business, Kuwait Oil Company, for possible injection into its oil fields.
Additionally, KGOC plans to award licensed technology contracts to US-based Honeywell UOP and Shell subsidiary Shell Catalysts & Technologies for the plant’s acid gas removal unit and sulphur recovery unit, respectively.
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Abu Dhabi receives bids for 3.3GW Al-Nouf IPP10 March 2026

Two joint ventures have submitted bids for the development of the 3.3GW Al-Nouf independent power producer (IPP) project in Abu Dhabi.
Located within the newly established Al-Nouf complex, the facility will be the largest single-site, carbon-capture-ready, combined-cycle gas turbine plant in the UAE.
State utility and offtaker Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) issued a request for proposals for the project last August.
Ewec received statements of qualifications for the contract in April 2025.
The groups that submitted bids are:
- Aljomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia) and China Energy Engineering Corporation
- Orascom (Egypt) and Sumitomo (Japan)
As MEED previosuly reported, the project will follow the model of Abu Dhabi’s IPP programme, in which developers enter into a long-term agreement with Ewec as the sole procurer.
This involves the development, financing, construction, operation, maintenance and ownership of the plant, with the successful developer or developer consortium owning up to 40% of the entity. The remaining equity will be held indirectly by the Abu Dhabi government.
The project site was selected for its ability to accommodate both seawater-cooled power generation and reverse osmosis desalination technologies.
The plant will have the capacity to support several utility-scale energy and desalination projects in the future.
The facility is scheduled to begin commercial operations in the third quarter of 2029.
Taweelah C IPP
Last year, the Taweelah C IPP became the first gas-fired power plant project to be procured by Abu Dhabi since 2020, when Ewec awarded Japan’s Marubeni Corporation the contract to develop the Fujairah 3 IPP.
Ewec is procuring the 2,500MW gas-fired IPP, which will be located in the Al-Taweelah power and desalination complex, approximately 50 kilometres to the northeast of Abu Dhabi.
It is understood that three groups have submitted bids for the developer contract. These are:
- Sumitomo (Japan) / Korean Midland Power / Korea Overseas Infrastructure & Urban Development Corporation
- Aljomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia) / Sembcorp (Singapore)
- Etihad Water & Electricity (UAE) / Korea Western Power (Kowepo) / Kyuden (Japan)
A team of UK-based Alderbrook Finance and US-based Sargent & Lundy is providing financial and technical advisory services to Ewec for the Taweelah C IPP
The power purchase agreement for the project was previously expected to be signed by the end of 2025, with the project scheduled to begin commercial operations in the fourth quarter of 2028.
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Eighty-nine firms express Qassim airport interest10 March 2026
Eighty-nine local and international firms have expressed interest in a contract to develop Prince Naif Bin Abdulaziz International airport in Qassim, Saudi Arabia.
The project is being developed by Saudi Arabia’s Civil Aviation Holding Company (Matarat), through the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP).
In a statement, NCP said the list includes 55 local companies and 34 international firms comprising 19 developers; 33 engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors; 13 operators; 11 advisors; nine equity investors; three financial institutions and one in the other category.
These are:
Developers
- Ports Projects Management & Development Company (local)
- Tamasuk Holding (local)
- Makyol (Turkiye)
- Al-Gihaz Holding (local)
- Alfanar Company (local)
- Nesma Infrastructure & Technology (local)
- Plenary (Australia)
- WCT International (Malaysia)
- Al-Bawani (local)
- Egis (France)
- Mada International Holding (local)
- Vision Invest (local)
- Almutlaq Real Estate Investment Company (local)
- Samsung C&T (South Korea)
- Sarh Developments (local)
- IC Ictas (Turkiye)
- Kalyon (Turkiye)
- Saudi Binladin Group (local)
- Lamar Holding (Bahrain)
EPC Contractors
- SkyBridge (US)
- Avic (China)
- Saudi Pan Kingdom Company (local)
- Fas Energy & Infrastructure (local)
- Alghanim International (Kuwait)
- Abdul Ali Al-Ajmi (local)
- Technical Development Company for Contracting (local)
- China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (China)
- Almansouryah General Contracting (local)
- Al-Fahd Company (local)
- YDA Insaat (Turkiye)
- China Harbour Engineering Company (China)
- Rowad Modern Engineering (Egypt)
- Abdullah Fahad Al-Khaledi Company for General Contracting (Saudi Arabia)
- Shade Corporation (local)
- Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting (local)
- Setec (France)
- International Hospitals Construction Company (local)
- Arkad Engineering & Construction Company (local)
- Alrawaf Trading & Contracting (local)
- Abdulrahman Saad Alrashid & Sons (local)
- Mistacoglu Holding (Turkiye)
- Al-Jaber Contracting (Qatar)
- Mobco Construction (local)
- Sateaa Al-Tameer for Real Estate Development & Investment (local)
- China State Construction Engineering Corporation Ltd (China)
- China Construction Excellence Company (China)
- Safari Company (Saudi Arabia)
- Al-Sharif Group Holdings (local)
- Nayef Abdulkarim Company Al-Rakhis Contracting Company (local)
- Al-Yamama (local)
- Almabani (local)
- Buna Al-Khaleej Contracting (local)
Operators
- Annasban Group (local)
- Indiza Airport Management (South Africa)
- GMR Airports (India)
- Flynas (local)
- Bangalore International Airport Limited (India)
- Idemia Public Security (France)
- Saudi Ground Services (local)
- Oman Airports Management Company (Oman)
- Al-Qussie International (local)
- Serco Saudi Arabia (local)
- Al-Shams National Global Energy (local)
- DAA International (Ireland)
- TAV Airports (Turkiye)
Advisors
- Contrax International (UAE)
- Typsa (Spain)
- Ghesa Ingenieria Y Tecnologia (Spain)
- Pini Group (Switzerland)
- Hill International (United States)
- Walter P Moore Engineering Consultants (United States)
- Foster + Partners (UK)
- Arabtech Jardaneh (Jordan)
- Currie & Brown (UK)
- Meinhardt (Singapore)
- Populous (UK)
Equity Investors
- Namaya International Investment Company (local)
- Zamil Group Investment Company (local)
- Buhur for investment (local)
- Asyad Holding (local)
- IDS Consulting (local)
- Al-Gassim Investment Holding (local)
- Erada Advanced Projects (local)
- Sumou Global Investment (local)
- Abrdn Investcorp Infrastructure Partners (Bahrain)
Financial Institutions
- Bank Aljazira (local)
- Arab National Bank (local)
- Piper Sandler Companies (United States)
Other
- Middle East Tasks Company Metco (local)
The project scope includes the redevelopment of the passenger terminal as well as other associated facilities such as airside infrastructure, including runway, taxiways and aprons.
The project will be developed on a design, finance, construction, operations, maintenance and transfer basis.
The clients issued an expression of interest notice for the project on 9 February, and companies were given until 23 February to submit responses.
The latest development follows Matarat Holding and NCP prequalifying five teams to bid for a contract to develop the new Taif international airport project in Mecca Province in January.
According to local media reports, four consortiums and one standalone company have been prequalified to proceed to the next stage of the project.
The new Taif International airport will be located 21 kilometres southeast of the existing Taif airport, with a capacity to accommodate 2.5 million passengers by 2030.
The clients opted for a 30-year build-transfer-operate (BTO) contract model, including the construction period.
Previous tenders
The Taif, Hail and Qassim airport schemes were previously tendered and awarded as public-private partnership (PPP) projects using a BTO model.
Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca) awarded the contracts to develop four airport PPP projects to two separate consortiums in 2017.
A team of Tukiye’s TAV Airports and the local Al-Rajhi Holding Group won the 30-year concession agreement to build, transfer and operate airport passenger terminals in Yanbu, Qassim and Hail.
A second team, comprising Lebanon’s Consolidated Contractors Company, Germany’s Munich Airport International and local firm Asyad Group, won the BTO contract to develop Taif International airport.
However, these projects stalled following the restructuring of the kingdom’s aviation sector.
Saudi Arabia has already privatised airports, including the $1.2bn Prince Mohammed Bin Abdulaziz International airport in Medina, which was developed as a PPP and opened in 2015.
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Egypt brings new gas wells online10 March 2026
Egypt has brought new wells online in the Mediterranean Sea and the country’s Western Desert region, according to a statement from Egypt’s Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry.
In the Mediterranean, the second well in the West El-Burullus (WEB) offshore field was brought online, increasing the field’s output from about 25 to 37 million cubic feet a day (cf/d).
The project is being developed and produced through a joint‑venture vehicle known as PetroWeb, in which the lead partner is US-based Cheiron.
The production is forecast to exceed 70 million cf/d following the connection of the third well in the coming days, while the drilling of the fourth well has been completed with promising results, according to the ministry.
The development plan includes drilling two additional wells on the Papyrus platform, linked to WEB, to maximise the utilisation of the concession area's resources and accelerate production.
The well in the Western Desert has been brought on by Badr El-Din Petroleum Company (Bapetco), which is a joint venture of London-headquartered Shell and state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation.
Production tests showed rates of 10-15 million cf/d, in addition to 300–650 b/d of condensate, according to Egypt’s Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry.
The latest well has increased the confirmed reserves in the area from 15 billion cubic feet to 25 billion cubic feet.
Four more production wells are planned for in the Badr El-Din concession as Bapetco continues its push to ramp up production from the field.
Egypt is pushing to increase domestic production of gas amid soaring global prices due to the US and Israel’s war with Iran.
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