Libya has potential for energy project surge

6 July 2023

MEED's August 2023 report on Libya also includes:

Libyan pipeline contract awarded
Libyan oil company in pipeline procurement talks
Libya’s Waha Oil plans water plant
Halliburton in talks for $1bn Libya oil project
Eni signs gas deal in Libya

 


After a string of major energy project announcements in the country, Libya will likely be on course for a surge in project activity as long as it can maintain political stability and security.

However, the current period of stability is looking increasingly fragile amid threats from the military leader General Khalifa Haftar, who has warned of military action unless oil revenues are divided fairly within the next two months.

Eastern politicians claim the Central Bank distributes the bulk of oil revenues to the rival UN-recognised government based in Tripoli, even though the oil is produced in fields largely based in the east of the country.

The US special envoy to Libya, Richard Norland – eager to keep oil production flowing – had urged the east not to disrupt production.

The heightened political tensions come after a promising period of increased business activity within Libya that many believe could still pave the way for a boom in the country’s energy sector – if conflict can be avoided.

Recent announcements include a partnership between Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) and Italy's Eni to develop two regions containing expected gas reserves of 6 trillion cubic feet.

The upstream Mellitah complex integrated expansion is meanwhile estimated to be worth $8bn. It is anticipated to have a production capacity of 750 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas for a period of 25 years.

The deal between Eni and NPC for the expansion project was announced in January, but in April MEED revealed that the project still needed board approval before tenders for the main contracts could be issued.

It is possible that stakeholders in this project, like many other major projects in the country, are taking their time before finalising the contract to better gauge the political and security environment before they commit to large-scale investment.

Security company licensing system overhauled in Libya

Political instability

Libya has been plagued by frequent outbreaks of conflict for more than a decade since the removal of Muammar Gaddafi during the Arab Spring in 2011.

Since his removal, rival factions have continually vied for power and the country has failed to create a unified government.

At the moment, the country has two rival governments. The Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) exerts control over territory in the west of the country, and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives controls territory in the east.

Elections planned for 24 December 2021 were expected to unify the country under a single government, but they never occurred and many of the contested issues that derailed the democratic process in 2021 remain unresolved.

Key problematic issues include the eligibility criteria for presidential candidates and how candidates with military affiliations should be treated.

It has been reported that both sides have agreed that candidates with military affiliations must automatically resign from their military posts if they become candidates, but debate remains over whether provisions should be in place to stop them from resuming their positions once the electoral process has concluded.

Additionally, both sides have agreed that dual nationals that want to stand as president should give up the citizenship of the second country, but no mechanism has been decided on to verify compliance.

While it is clear that undisputed elections and the formation of a single unified government are the best-case scenario, it is possible that the country’s business community and energy sector will prosper without this in place.

UK foreign office asked to relax Libya travel advice

Conflict cooldown

Since the June 2020 conclusion of Operation Flood of Dignity, a year-long campaign in which Tobruk-aligned military forces tried to capture Tripoli, Libya has seen a significant improvement in its security situation and an uptick in energy sector activity.

The increase in business activity since then has shown that the country can attract international businesses for multibillion-dollar projects without a single unified government in place.

Other business deals that have been announced include the signing of a contract between NOC and US-based Honeywell for engineering work on the planned South Refinery project in Libya.

The project is expected to be carried out in two phases and is anticipated to cost between $500m and $600m.

Additionally, Libya’s Waha Oil Company is in advanced talks with US-based Halliburton over a $1bn project to rehabilitate the country’s Al-Dhara oil field.

On top of the series of announcements regarding major projects with international companies, there has also been an uptick in small-scale energy project activity, according to contractors active in the country.

All this points to the future looking promising for the country’s energy sector, as long as stability and security can be maintained. However, keeping the peace is unlikely to be easy, given the precarious nature of the political situation.

Sudan situation

The ongoing conflict in Libya’s neighbour, Sudan, has sparked an influx of refugees into Libya and rising uncertainty about future stability.

Analysts have warned that increased arms trafficking could be part of the fallout from the ongoing war in Sudan as control over the country’s arms storage facilities and borders is reduced.

Further flows of arms into the south of Libya could potentially embolden militias in the region and erode security.

Additionally, before the conflict in Sudan, the African Union and Arab League played significant roles in mediating the unresolved issues between Libya’s two rival governments.

Likely, at least some of the resources that would previously have been used to try to strengthen stability in Libya will now have to be used to deal with the escalating crisis in Sudan.

Maintaining peace and finding common ground between Libya’s rival governments is likely to be critical to the future growth of the country’s energy sector and the broader economy.

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Wil Crisp
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    If 2025 was marked by the advent of reform in the shape of public debt and mortgage laws, 2026 has been a year of resilience in the face of sharp shifts in the operating environment.

    Like their peers across the GCC, Kuwait’s banks have stood out this year for their crisis preparedness. With Kuwait facing sustained attacks from Iran – testing a hydrocarbons-based economy that is uniquely vulnerable to such shocks – banks are focusing on maintaining durability under especially challenging conditions.

    The sector entered 2026 in a relatively strong position. As of March 2026 – one month into the US-Israeli campaign against Iran – the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at a creditable 1.7%. A capital adequacy ratio of 17.5% in Q1 is another sign of resilience, underscoring banks’ capacity to absorb unexpected losses.

    Kuwaiti banks’ reserve coverage stands at 223% of problem loans, one of the highest levels of loan-loss allowance coverage for Stage 3 exposures in the region. This is in large part due to the Central Bank of Kuwait’s (CBK’s) strict regulatory requirements.

    Overall, banks have strong capitalisation, solid liquidity, high loan loss-absorption buffers and sound asset quality. That mix provides confidence that the banking sector can continue to support the economy in difficult circumstances.

    Kuwait has retained significant sovereign financial strength. There are large fiscal buffers, there is the existential hydrocarbon wealth, and there is a long track record of supporting the banking sector when required
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    Bank dominance

    Banks also remain central to Kuwait’s economy. As the Washington-based IMF has noted, financial intermediation is overwhelmingly bank-based, with domestic currency bond and equity markets underdeveloped by emerging-market standards.

    “Kuwait has retained significant sovereign financial strength. There are large fiscal buffers, there is the existential hydrocarbon wealth, and there is a long track record of supporting the banking sector when required,” says Abdulla Al-Hammadi, an analyst at Moody’s.

    Bank assets reached 250% of GDP in 2024 – among the highest in the GCC, according to the IMF. This is supported by strong balance sheets, high liquidity and a large Islamic finance segment. Kuwait Finance House, Boubyan Bank, Kuwait International Bank and Warba Bank – the four main Islamic lenders – together account for KD53bn ($172bn), or 51% of total banking sector assets.

    Early 2026 performance metrics show a solid rise in assets at listed Kuwaiti banks, growing by 12.5% year-on-year to KD130.82bn ($366.4bn) in Q1. Net profits increased by a smaller margin, 1.1%, to KD382.96m ($1.07bn) in the same quarter, according to KPMG.

    National Bank of Kuwait (NBK), the largest bank by assets, reported net profit of KD324.8m ($1.06bn) for the first half of 2026, a 3% year-on-year increase. Despite the impact of the conflict, the second quarter saw profits rise 4.5% to KD181.2m ($588.4m).

    Ratings support

    Ratings agencies have retained their confidence in Kuwaiti banks. In a rating action announced on 18 June, Moody’s affirmed the long-term deposit ratings of eight Kuwaiti banks, reflecting their resilient credit profiles supported by strong capital, provisioning reserves and liquidity buffers.

    Under Moody’s central scenario – which assumes a prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz through autumn and persistently high and volatile energy prices – the expected deterioration in operating conditions remains within the absorption capacity of these banks’ baseline credit assessments.

    Kuwait’s strong sovereign ratings and high level of system support provide additional comfort. Government financial assets are estimated at more than 475% of GDP, while the debt burden was around 19% of GDP as of March 2026 – factors that underpin the government’s capacity to support the banking system in the event of stress.

    Nor is Kuwait at particular risk of external funding outflows. According to S&P Global, Kuwait has a comfortable net external asset position that mitigates such risks.

    “Depositor confidence has remained stable. The banks continue to access international interbank markets,” says Al-Hammadi. “Their liquidity buffers will support their ability to continue lending and absorb any potential shock.”

    Regulatory response

    Regulatory supervision is another core strength. The CBK has a reputation for hands-on oversight of the banking sector. In March, it rolled out a stimulus package to encourage banks to lend as the Iran conflict buffeted the region. The measures included a temporary easing of macroprudential requirements, with the minimum liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio reduced from 100% to 80%. The minimum regulatory ratio was cut from 18% to 15%.

    These measures appear to have had the intended effect. According to NBK’s research arm, domestic credit growth picked up in May, rising by half a percentage point over the previous month to 6.7% in year-on-year terms. Signs of stronger business lending, with gains across services, trade and real estate, will have been particularly welcome.

    “Many Kuwaiti banks have concentrated their lending activity around the Kuwait economy,” says Al-Hammadi. “Overall GDP is under pressure given recent developments in the hydrocarbon sector. It’s still an oil-driven economy, but if you look at non-oil activity, it has continued to benefit from government investment.”

    Credit growth will be supported by improving economic sentiment, so long as deposit growth keeps pace. However, lending is unlikely to match previous years’ levels.

    “Our expectation is that lending growth will drop, given what is happening in the macroeconomic environment. Growth could be a bit slower compared to previous years,” says Al-Hammadi.

    The CBK has urged local banks to be flexible towards customers, although anecdotal evidence suggests greater caution, including tighter personal loan limits.

    Reforms, including the mortgage and housing law, provide an additional opportunity for Kuwaiti banks to support broader growth. The Real Estate Financing Law permits banks to offer supported loans under which the state covers interest payments via the Kuwait Credit Bank, while borrowers repay only the principal.

    Although hydrocarbon-sector growth will be negatively impacted by events in the Gulf this year, banks should be able to secure growth by focusing on the non-hydrocarbon economy.

    “We see growth driven by the non-oil economy and some of the project finance opportunities, which will benefit from the banking sector’s capital and liquidity position. It places the banks in the right place to grab this opportunity,” says Al-Hammadi.


    MEED’s September 2026 report on Kuwait also includes:

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  • PDO floats tender for major flare gas monetisation scheme

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    6 August 2026

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    The Middle East and North Africa’s construction project pipeline strengthened in June 2026, recovering some of the momentum lost earlier in the year as the effects of the Israel-Iran conflict continued to work through regional project markets.

    GlobalData’s Construction Projects Momentum Index (CPMI) for the Mena region rose to 0.84 in June, up 5% from 0.80 in May, leaving the region third globally behind South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The three-month moving average held at 0.95, unchanged from May.

    The recovery was led by execution-stage activity, where the score rose to 1.18 in June from 1.06 in May. Pre-execution momentum, however, continued to soften, falling to 0.68 from 0.73. The pre-execution stage captures project planning, design development and procurement preparation, and a sustained decline there can point to a thinning of the future pipeline even when near-term execution holds up.

    Infrastructure drove the sector-level gains, with momentum rising sharply to 1.03 in June from 0.25 in May, the largest increase among the region’s sectors. Industrial momentum rose to 0.78 from 0.40. Residential activity remained elevated at 1.17, easing only marginally from 1.22.

    The gains were partly offset by a steep pullback in institutional activity, where momentum fell to 0.45 in June from 1.72 in May, the largest decline of any sector. Commercial and leisure momentum eased to 0.88 from 1.13, and energy and utilities to 0.59 from 0.82.

    The UAE posted the region’s highest score in June at 1.52, up from 1.16 in May. Algeria rose to 1.26 from 0.68, and Kuwait recovered to 0.76 from 0.26. Egypt reached 1.36, Oman held at 0.87, Qatar rose to 0.86 and Iran eased to 0.81.

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    Israel recovered to 0.65 in June from -1.66 in May, having recorded the region’s weakest scores through the earlier phase of the conflict.

    Whether the June recovery is sustained will depend on the direction of pre-execution activity, which continued to weaken even as execution-stage momentum firmed.


    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

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    The round was co-led by Woven Capital, the growth fund of Japan’s Toyota, and by Ion Pacific. It also brought in BlueCrest Capital Management and Sona Capital, alongside existing backers including BlackRock, Japan’s MUFG, Franklin Templeton, Uber and the Ontario Power Generation Pension Plan.

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    The company expects to grow its autonomous vehicle workforce by more than 220% by the end of the year, increasing from about 150 employees to about 500.

    Founded in 2020 and headquartered in the UAE, Moove finances, owns and operates mobility assets for ride-hailing platforms. It employs 3,300 people and operates about 42,000 vehicles across 29 cities in 13 countries, and has grown to $420m in annual recurring revenue. It has expanded through organic growth and acquisitions, including Kovi in Brazil and Tokyo Taxi in Japan.

    Moove is the largest global fleet partner of ride-hailing company Uber. Through a partnership with Waymo, the autonomous driving unit of US technology group Alphabet, it operates autonomous vehicle fleets in Phoenix and Miami in the US, with operations also planned in London.

    Mubadala first invested in Moove three years ago. The Series C round marks its continued backing of the company as it moves into autonomous fleet operations.


    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

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    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

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