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Legacy building at Diriyah

1 August 2024

It is impossible to talk about Saudi Arabia’s history without referencing Diriyah. Founded in 1446 in the Wadi Hanifa valley on the western outskirts of Riyadh, the historic town was the first capital of the Al-Saud dynasty and the launchpad for the kingdom’s unification campaign at the turn of the 20th century. In recognition, its central Turaif district was inscribed as a Unesco World Heritage site in 2010.

Today, the mud-brick settlement, built in the distinctive Najdi architectural style, has lent its name to one of the world’s most ambitious transformative developments. Sensitively conserving and building on its historical importance, it has created a unique cultural, educational, residential and tourism hub in the capital.

With an official budget of some $63bn, Diriyah is one of Saudi Arabia’s five official gigaprojects. It has held this label since early 2023, when responsibility for its development was handed to Diriyah Company, a project company formed as a Public Investment Fund (PIF) subsidiary a year earlier.

Covering an area of 14 square kilometres, Diriyah is targeting a population of 100,000 by its stated completion date of 2030. With more than 40 hotels, nine museums, 400 luxury boutiques, 100-plus restaurants and multiple educational institutions, it hopes to draw in more than 50 million annual visits.

Progress since ground was first broken four years ago has been rapid. As of May 2024, more than SR53bn ($14.1bn)-worth of construction contracts had been awarded. Today, visitors to the area can see hundreds of mobile cranes, plant and piling equipment rising over the boundary wall.

“We are in a good place,” says Mohammed Saad, Diriyah Company’s chief development officer. “We’ve finished our essential underground infrastructure and civil works, the super basement and all the tunnels that connect the basements together.”

But the real work has only just begun. Saad says a further SR30bn-35bn is scheduled to be awarded by the end of 2024, rising to SR40bn-45bn in 2025. By the end of this year, the public can expect to see substantial above-ground construction, particularly on the western side of the gigaproject, providing more tangible evidence of its advancement, which until now has been primarily below ground.

This is not to say that any vertical assets will be particularly tall. Because of the district's traditional low-rise nature, any building must be no higher than the historic structures. It should also emulate the Najdi style. For the same reason, most of the essential infrastructure, utilities and roads are hidden below ground.

Major project scopes

A significant step was made in early July when Diriyah Company awarded an estimated $2bn contract to a joint venture of El-Seif Engineering & Contracting and China State to build the North Cultural District. The deal, the largest let on the gigaproject to date, covers multiple assets, including hotels, the King Salman Foundation Library, King Salman University and the House of Saud Museum.

The work was originally planned as multiple construction packages until Diriyah Company took the commercial decision last year to bundle them into one contract. The decision to adopt super packages was driven by a dynamic market in which contractors have been almost overwhelmed with the volume of tenders from various gigaprojects and where cost inflation is taking hold.

“You will not get the attention of the big contractors if you offer small contracts,” Saad explains. By consolidating projects, contractors can focus their resources more effectively and efficiently and provide more competitive pricing.

“We have a hotel, we have an office building, we have a museum, and when we tendered them as one super package, there was a very solid response and interest from the big players because they could focus their resources and pricing and more efficiently engage their supply chains and subcontractors.”

The approach appears to be working. In late July, another estimated $2bn super package was awarded to a joint venture of local contractor Albawani and Qatar’s Urbacon to construct assets in the Wadi Safar district of the gigaproject. Featuring a mix of residential, residential farm plots, hotels, branded hotel villas, a golf course, an equestrian and polo club, and other leisure and entertainment facilities, including Aman, Chedi, Faena and Six Senses-branded hotels, Wadi Safar is positioned as the most upscale and exclusive development in Riyadh and indeed the kingdom as a whole.

The consolidated contract packages strategy reflects the supercharged nature of the Saudi projects market. With various clients, including the gigaprojects, all competing for a limited amount of contracting, material and labour resources, more innovative procurement strategies need to be adopted.

This is particularly critical for Diriyah and its enormous material requirements. For example, it has previously said that it will ultimately need some 350,000 doors, 1.5 million square metres of tiles, 1.2 million tonnes of rebar and 140,000 HVAC units.

Supply-side obstacles

Despite the progress, the project faces challenges related to contracting, engineering and material supply. The high demand for key materials, coupled with global supply chain disruptions, poses a significant conundrum. However, the delivery team has proactively secured and signed framework agreements with manufacturers to ensure a steady flow of required materials.

Transparent demand signalling is a core component of this. “We’ve analysed our material needs up to 2030 and prepared comprehensive requests for proposals for all key items,” says Saad. “We went out to the manufacturers and the supply chain in general to let them see the pipeline is tangible and secure. We are listening to vendors in order to speed things up and to lock down prices.”

Saad lists specific materials not naturally available in Saudi Arabia, such as finishing stones, as items that may be in short supply, in addition to some specialised MEP equipment that is only manufactured abroad. Overall, he is optimistic about the market’s ability to adapt. “The market will adjust itself,” he states. “Of course, there are challenges, but there are also opportunities for manufacturers to up their game.”

Likewise, contractors are being brought into discussions at earlier stages of contract planning. Diriyah is adopting strategies such as early contractor involvement in the design process to help better understand and manage construction risk. “We’re engaging with contractors and delivery partners as early as the concept design stages to get their feedback on the project’s constructability,” says Saad. “Later, these contractors can be invited to bid for the contract, which makes it easier for them and so they can be aware of any issues.”

Financial constraints

Another increasingly evident challenge is financing. As the gigaprojects programme steps up a gear, there have been growing strains on funding the huge costs associated with it, expenditure which in some cases is considerably higher than when first estimated during the initial master planning stages due to cost inflation and disruptions in the supply chain.

As with the other gigaprojects, Diriyah’s initial work has been fully funded by its PIF parent, but later phases will likely require other financing mechanisms. While some of this will come from the $100m in revenues it expects to make over the next year, the client company has been actively tapping into the capital markets, following in the footsteps of other gigaprojects such as Neom and Red Sea Global, which have concluded sizeable borrowing deals in the past two years.

This includes all options up to and including an initial public offering (IPO). The market consensus is that eventually all the PIF project company subsidiaries will go public when the time is right, and Diriyah is unlikely to be an exception.

For the same reason, the client is also exploring public-private partnerships (PPPs) to enable the private sector to take on some of the financial burden. For instance, City Cool Cooling Company recently won a $186m 25-year build-own-operate (BOO) concession to develop a 72,000-refrigeration-tonne district cooling plant. Future opportunities may include expansion of cooling capacity, other utilities and car parking operations.

“PPPs are a key component of our strategy,” says Saad. They provide a platform for private investors to participate in Diriyah's growth while leveraging the expertise and resources of the public sector. We realise we cannot build 10 million square metres alone. We need the private sector to participate and partner with us and give them an opportunity to be part of this journey.”

Another funding source will be off-plan property sales once its real estate offering comes to market. Based on the development plans, this is expected to be significant. With a mix of some 30,000 villas, apartments and townhouses, the ambition is to attract both local and expatriate residents, if or when the kingdom opens its property market to non-nationals.

Investment pathway

Eventually, third parties will also need to invest in the various real estate elements of the gigaproject. Diriyah Company, as a master developer, is actively seeking to attract other developers, family offices and financial institutions to develop land parcels for mixed-use, residential, hospitality, commercial, education and healthcare assets.

“We are already opening up to investors and meeting developers who are interested in partnering with us or buying land,” notes Saad. “It’s a good problem to have – there’s more interest than we can handle right now, which speaks volumes about the project's attractiveness.”

This is just as well. One criticism of the gigaprojects programme has been the shortfall in both local and international investment to date. A lack of understanding of what the gigaprojects are and will be, demand uncertainty, timeframe ambiguities and general market hesitancy have been identified as the stumbling blocks.

Diriyah is determined to change this situation. It is focusing on increasing public and investor awareness of the potential opportunity through initiatives such as its two-day Bashayer event last November, which showcased the masterplan and construction progress to selected key stakeholders. There has also been a push for greater transparency and publishing more specific details about the overall development to make it stand out from the crowded market.

The giant gigaproject is not being developed in isolation. Experience from successful developments worldwide highlights that connectivity and coordination with other government stakeholders are key. Diriyah is planned to be connected to an extension of Riyadh Metro’s Line 2 and a planned Line 7 linking it with King Khalid International airport and another gigaproject, Qiddiya. In total, four metro stations are planned for the development.

At the same time, talks are under way for Diriyah to be one of the main stations on the planned Q-Express high-speed rail link between the airport and Qiddiya, which will complement the metro network. For those arriving by car, there will be the opportunity to use the three-level, 1 million square-metre underground ‘super basement’ car park, which, with a capacity for 10,500 vehicles, will be the fifth-largest parking facility in the world, and by far the biggest in the region.

As Diriyah’s construction accelerates, it is already starting to define its identity more clearly. Building on the kingdom’s historical roots, it is set to create a new legacy for future generations.

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Edward James

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    Such developments are an apt metaphor for Oman’s broader diversification trajectory: the sultanate is building patiently and coherently, with an eye on resilience as much as on growth, and doing so within a defined budget. Amid uncertainty, it is a strategy that suits the times.

     

    MEED’s January 2026 report on Oman includes:

    > GVT & ECONOMY: Oman pursues diversification amid regional concerns
    > BANKING: Oman banks feel impact of stronger economy
    > OIL & GAS: LNG goals galvanise Oman’s oil and gas sector
    > POWER & WATER: Oman prepares for a wave of IPP awards
    > CONSTRUCTION: Momentum builds in construction sector

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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  • Oman pursues diversification amid regional concerns

    31 December 2025

     

    In late November, a batch of 36 wind turbines arrived at Oman’s Duqm Port, destined for the Riyah 1 and 2 projects being developed by OQ Alternative Energy. Each turbine can generate some 6.5MW – enough to supply 2,400 Omani homes – and yet, rather than being fed into the national grid, their output will be used by Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) to ramp up the use of renewable energy in its own operations. This will both reduce its carbon emissions and free up more gas for other purposes.

    This combination of continued hydrocarbon exploitation and clean energy development is a familiar pattern around the Gulf. For Oman, it is also a sign of its efforts to diversify while making existing energy resources go further.

    With the recovery of oil prices, Oman’s nominal GDP has surged by 41% from 2020 to 2024, according to the Washington-based IMF

    Plans within plans

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    The authorities can look back with some satisfaction on the10th plan, which began as Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al-Said was taking office in January 2020. Since then, the government’s finances have been turned around, with debt levels brought down and spending kept under control even as the economy as a whole has continued to grow. With the recovery of oil prices, Oman’s nominal GDP has surged by 41% from 2020 to 2024, according to the IMF, reaching $107bn at the end of that period.

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    In a review of the economy issued in late November, the IMF had encouraging words for Muscat. The organisation’s mission chief for Oman, Abdullah Al-Hassan, said the economic outlook for the country was “favourable” and the coming five-year plan “presents an important opportunity to accelerate economic diversification, boost productivity and create more private sector jobs for Omanis”.

    However, there are still vulnerabilities. Data from the Ministry of Finance for the third quarter of the year showed revenues falling and expenditure rising, amid subdued international oil prices and restrictions on output under the Opec+ arrangements.

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    Public spending meanwhile was up 2% over the period to RO8.9bn, leaving a small but noteworthy deficit. The shortfall was mainly due to capital expenditure, with ministries spending RO1.1bn on development projects, or 23% more than the RO900m that had been anticipated. Economists expect further budget deficits in the coming years, unless oil prices rebound.

    Non-oil potential

    Developing the non-oil economy remains a critical aspect of future growth, with key target sectors including tourism. Oman Air is considering ordering more planes in the new year, with chief executive Con Korfiatis saying at the recent Dubai Airshow “we will definitely need more” narrow-bodied jets. It is unclear if it will order new planes from Airbus or Boeing or look for second-hand jets on the lease market.

    Green hydrogen is another significant area of activity for the future, although it remains to be seen if global demand will develop quickly enough to meet all the supply being planned, in Oman and elsewhere. According to the authorities, Oman is aiming to attract $140bn of investments in its green hydrogen sector by 2050.

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    He urged further modernisation of the tax system, including the personal income tax on high earners, which is due to be introduced in early 2028. The IMF has also called for more cuts to spending, including phasing out untargeted energy subsidies.

    Geopolitical risk

    However, for all the progress made in expanding the economy and putting government finances on a surer footing in recent years, Oman cannot escape its neighbourhood. The IMF noted in its report that “renewed geopolitical tensions could weigh on growth and fiscal and external positions.”

    This is something Omani officials are acutely aware of and it has informed the country’s long-standing role as a regional mediator.

    Events in June threw that into sharp relief, when a planned sixth round of indirect talks between the US and Iran in Muscat were abruptly cancelled, after Israel launched a bombing campaign on Iran.

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    With Saudi Arabia now reportedly playing a more central role in mediating between the US and Iran, Oman’s position as a regional intermediary may now be reduced – at least in regard to that bilateral stand-off. But Muscat could still play an important role in helping to resolve the situation in Yemen, particularly as the Houthi’s main negotiator Mohammed Abdulsalam resides in Muscat.

    “Failing to engage constructively and in good faith with Iran, with the Houthis and others, will not resolve issues like proxy wars, human suffering or nuclear proliferation,” Al-Busaidi told the audience in Manama. “On the contrary, exclusion fuels conflict, extremism and instability, worsening exactly these challenges. Only an inclusive regional security framework can effectively address shared challenges.”

    A calmer geopolitical backdrop would also provide a more conducive environment for Omani economic development and diversification.

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    Rising fortunes

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    Morocco's projects market has stabilised at around $10bn in awards for the second year running – double the long-term average

    Jordan is set for just 2.9% real GDP growth in 2026, and continues to face severe fiscal pressures. However, January saw the landmark award of the $6bn Aqaba-Amman water desalination and conveyance scheme – by far the largest project in Jordan and expected to stimulate activity across industrial supply chains. Financial close for the scheme is anticipated by early 2026.

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    Baghdad is spending heavily on projects, with more than $30bn contracts awarded in the past 12 months – double the long-term average, and for the second year running

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    Algeria ranks lowest in the index, with real GDP growth expected to fall to 2.9% in 2026, alongside a double-digit fiscal deficit. Contract awards have halved in the past 12 months, reaching 25% below long-term averages. The World Bank has flagged Algeria’s medium-term outlook as uncertain without structural reform.

    About the index

    MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from MEED Projects to provide an index score of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

    View the previous MEED indexes here
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  • Investors focus on residential sector for new deals

    29 December 2025

     

    This package also includes: Saudi real estate to surge in 2026
    A series of legislative changes were made in 2025 to facilitate further growth of the sector in 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s real estate market continued to gather momentum at the Cityscape Global 2025 event, with a record SR237bn ($63.1bn) of deals signed.

    The event was held on 17-20 November at the Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Centre and was inaugurated by Saudi Municipalities & Housing Minister Majed Al-Hogail.

    Although the deals signed at the event signalled a modest increase in dollar terms from the $61bn reported in 2024, they underline a steady increase in commitments to Saudi Arabia’s wider ecosystem of tourism, healthcare, logistics and supporting infrastructure schemes.

    A large share of the $63.1bn is tied to the development of housing and residential communities, reflecting continued policy support for home ownership and urban expansion. Tourism- and infrastructure-related agreements also featured heavily.

    NHC signings

    The headline of the event was the series of agreements worth billions of dollars signed by Saudi Arabia’s National Housing Company (NHC) with many local and international firms.

    The company signed two agreements worth over SR8.5bn ($2.2bn) for the development of two mixed-use and residential communities in Riyadh. The first agreement, worth over SR5.2bn ($1.4bn), was signed with local developer Retal Urban Development Company for a total of 4,839 residential units in the Al-Fursan suburb of Riyadh.

    The other contract, worth over SR3.3bn ($880m), was signed with a joint venture of Egypt’s Hassan Allam Holding and local developer Tilal Real Estate for a mixed-use project in the Khozam district. The development will cover over 228,000 square metres (sq m).

    The headline of the event was the series of agreements … signed by Saudi Arabia’s NHC

    NHC also signed an investment agreement worth over SR1bn ($266m) with Turkiye’s Emlak Konut to develop residential communities within the Mecca Gate project in Mecca. Emlak Konut will develop 1,000 residential villas.

    A SR2.64bn ($702m) partnership agreement was also announced with Egyptian real estate developer Mountain View to launch a residential project in the Al-Fursan suburb in Riyadh. The development will span 930,000 sq m and comprise 1,923 units.

    NHC also signed agreements with local developers. It inked a deal with Ledar Company to develop over 930 units within the Dar Makkah project in Wujhat Bawabat, Mecca, valued at SR899m ($240m), and another with Dar Wa Emaar Company for 2,843 units in Wujhat Al-Fursan, worth more than SR3.3bn ($879m). 

    A deal with Ezdihar Real Estate will deliver a further 1,120 units in Wujhat Al-Fursan, valued at over SR880m ($234m).

    NHC also announced a SR600m ($160m) deal with Al-Omar Investment to develop 14,000 residential units at the Dama Al-Mashriqya project in East Riyadh. 

    A SR525m ($140m) contract was awarded to local firm Zaid Alhussain & Brothers Group for infrastructure works in the Khuzam area north of Riyadh, while Saleh Abdulla Almahana Company secured a SR651m ($173m) contract to build 1,290 units for the Rose House project in Al-Ahsa.

    NHC also awarded Riyadh-based Alomaier Trading & Contracting Company a contract to carry out infrastructure works at its Khuzam residential development in Riyadh. The scope of work covers all infrastructure works across an area of 4 million sq m.

    NHC also announced the construction of 1,085 villas within the Al-Ghoroub project in Medina.

    More announcements

    NHC’s signings were complemented by further deals announced by major developers and government entities.

    > Diriyah: Saudi gigaproject developer Diriyah Company awarded two construction contracts with a combined value of over SR5.7bn ($1.5bn) on the sidelines of the event.

    The first, valued at about $800m, was awarded to the local BEC Arabia Contracting Company for the construction of offices in the Media and Innovation district of the Diriyah development. Within the same district, BEC Arabia will also build residential assets on the Manazel Al-Hadawi plots.

    The other contract, estimated to be worth $900m, was awarded to local firm Almabani General Contractors for the main construction works on King Khalid Road.

    > King Salman Park: The King Salman Park Foundation, Ajdan Real Estate and Sedco Capital announced a partnership agreement to build a SR3.8bn ($1bn) mixed-use real estate project within King Salman Park in Riyadh. The project will feature over 600 residential units, 200 hotel rooms, 45,000 sq m of office space and retail and service facilities covering 106,000 sq m.

    > Urubah Investment: Local firm Urubah Investment unveiled a 53-floor residential and commercial tower in Riyadh’s Al-Yasmin district, with a built-up area of 160,000 sq m.

    > Zood Real Estate: The firm announced the launch of a 10-tower mixed-use project on Riyadh’s Northern Ring Road.

    > Ajdan Real Estate: The developer launched the Ajdan Infiniti complex and signed a financing agreement with Alawwal Bank. It also launched the Ajdan Towers project in Riyadh.

    > Masar: Jeddah-based Masar sold three plots of land in its Masar Destination in Mecca for the construction of residential and hotel towers, with investments reaching SR1.6bn ($426m). It also signed an agreement for two plots for the development of two residential towers, with investments exceeding SR1bn ($266m). 

    Masar also signed a land sale deal for a 500-unit hotel tower, with total investments exceeding SR1bn ($266m), and a SR700m ($186m) land reservation agreement with Al-Diyar Al-Arabiya to develop a 300-unit residential tower.

    > Mohammad Al-Habib: The developer launched a $1.3bn mixed-use project in the north of Riyadh.

    > Al-Awaly: Jizan-based firm Al-Awaly announced signing a contract to establish Jazan Water City on an area of 114,000 sq m with an investment value of SR200m ($52m).

    > Alothaim: The firm announced the launch of three mixed-use projects in Dammam, Medina and Khamis Mushait.

    > Al-Majdiah Development: The firm signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Alinma Bank to develop financing solutions that support its future projects.

    > Roshn Group: The Saudi gigaproject developer signed partnership agreements for educational and residential developments and the localisation of supply chains. These include an MoU with the UK’s Cognita Schools to develop a private school in its Sedra residential community in Riyadh.

    On the residential side, Roshn launched Sedra Residence, the construction contract for which has been awarded to Building Construction Company. 

    Roshn was also granted the first instant licence for off-plan sales projects. 

    In addition, local developer Maskan purchased land in Roshn’s Al-Arous community in Jeddah. Maskan will develop a mixed-use project at an investment of SR1.7bn ($453m).

    > Sedco Capital: The firm signed agreements to develop a 540-unit residential complex and a 200-unit residential tower, with total investments of SR1.8bn ($479m). Sedco also signed a deal to develop a Courtyard by Marriott-branded hotel with 1,100 rooms within the Masar Destination in Mecca.

    > Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company: The firm signed an agreement with Al-Rajhi Bank to purchase two real estate financing portfolios worth SR10bn ($2.6bn).

    > Osus Real Estate: The developer launched two mixed-use projects in the Al-Malqa and Al-Qayrawan districts of Riyadh, with a total investment of about SR3bn ($800m).

    > Liwan Real Estate: The firm launched a 151,300 sq m project comprising 2,500 residential units, along with a hotel, offices and commercial facilities, at an investment of SR4.5bn ($1.2bn).

    > Kooheji Developments: The firm launched a three-tower development with 1,250 units, located in Al-Khobar.

    > Bank Albilad: The bank launched a SR4.4bn ($1.1bn) fund to develop a mixed-use project in the Qurtuba district of Riyadh.

    > SAB Invest: Together with Dallah Health and Aljazira Capital, SAB Invest will develop medical, commercial and hotel facilities near Dallah Al-Nakheel Hospital in Riyadh at an investment of SR1.2bn ($319m).

    > Heyazah: The firm announced a mixed-use project spanning 103,000 sq m in the vicinity of King Salman Park in Riyadh.

    > Riyad Capital: The investment company launched a SR1.7bn ($453m) fund to develop the One Mountain View project, featuring over 500 villas in the north of Riyadh.

    > Al-Basateen: The developer launched the Al-Basateen Tower project at the intersection of Riyadh’s Northern Ring Road and King Fahd Road.

    > Alinma Bank: The bank launched a fund worth SR3bn ($800m) to develop 2.7 million sq m of land in the Al-Janadriyah district of Riyadh.

    READ: Saudi real estate to surge in 2026 

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    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi real estate to surge in 2026

    29 December 2025

     

    This package also includes: Investors focus on residential sector for new deals
    Deals worth $63.1bn were signed at the Cityscape Global 2025 property show in Riyadh

    After nearly a decade of Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) taking on the delivery burden of the kingdom’s largest projects, Riyadh is now turning to private sector real estate developers to help deliver its ambitions. 

    The shift reflects both opportunity and necessity. The PIF-led model has enabled Saudi Arabia to fast-track its gigaprojects and anchor Vision 2030’s transformation objectives. Riyadh is now looking for the private sector to maintain this momentum.

    Opening the market

    To encourage more real estate activity, the kingdom’s long-awaited foreign ownership law was approved in August 2025. It will come into force in early 2026 after a 180-day implementation period. It introduces a comprehensive structure for non-Saudi ownership of real estate.

    The law allows non-Saudi individuals and companies to own, lease and use property in designated areas, subject to restrictions by type and location. Foreign residents can own one home for personal use outside restricted zones, excluding Mecca and Medina. 

    Meanwhile, companies with foreign shareholders can acquire real estate across the kingdom, including in Mecca and Medina, provided it is for business purposes or employee housing and in line with financial regulations. 

    The intention is to help Saudi Arabia tap into international property demand – as Dubai has done – to boost foreign direct investment (FDI). 

    In 2024, the kingdom attracted SR119bn ($31.7bn) in FDI, up 24% year-on-year and 37% above earlier estimates, but still short of the $100bn annual target for 2030. 

    Manufacturing led inflows with SR35bn, followed by wholesale and retail trade, construction and financial and insurance services. Real estate did not feature among the top-performing sectors, underlining the potential for growth.

    Land and finance

    While the foreign ownership law focuses on demand, the revised white land tax regime, effective from 22 August 2025, targets supply. The law aims to curb land hoarding, boost urban land availability and support development priorities.

    Key provisions include an annual white land tax of up to 10%, with zones graded between 10% and 2.5%; a vacant building fee of up to 5%, potentially rising to 10%, subject to approval by Saudi Arabia’s Council of Ministers; and the classification of cities according to supply-demand conditions and development needs. 

    The white land tax is likely to have a dual effect. It should prompt some landowners to bring idle plots into development, sell to active developers or enter into partnerships, thereby alleviating a long-standing structural bottleneck in Riyadh and other major cities. At the same time, it introduces a new cost for holding undeveloped land, which will need to be priced into feasibility studies and could initially push some asking prices higher as owners seek to pass on part of the burden.

    Over time, if enforcement is seen as consistent and predictable, the white land tax could help normalise more active land markets and support the private sector’s expanded delivery role. But 2026 is likely to be a transitional year, with a mix of opportunistic sales, legal challenges and recalibrated land valuations.

    The government has also intervened directly in the rental market, most notably with a rent freeze in Riyadh. 

    In response to double-digit rent increases in some districts, driven by non-oil growth, gigaprojects and corporate relocations, the authorities have imposed a five-year suspension of annual rent increases for residential and commercial leases in the capital.

    For tenants, the freeze offers immediate relief and increases predictability, particularly for middle-income households and small businesses exposed to volatile rents. It also serves as a counterweight to fears that opening the market to foreign buyers in 2026 will drive another surge in rental prices.

    For investors and developers, however, the impact is more challenging. Compressed rental growth in Riyadh reduces the upside on income-producing assets, especially where financing structures assumed steady nominal increases. 

    Running alongside these regulatory reforms is a quieter but significant development in real estate finance: the launch of Saudi Arabia’s first residential mortgage-backed securities by PIF subsidiary the Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company. This new asset class aims to enhance liquidity in the housing finance market and diversify investment opportunities.

    In the longer term, a thriving, diversified real estate sector underpinned by such instruments can support the development of a broader ecosystem of mortgage issuers, servicers and investors, reducing systemic risk and broadening access to housing finance.

    As the kingdom takes deliberate steps to open its market to foreign buyers, mobilise idle land, protect tenants and strengthen financial infrastructure, much will depend on execution. If the new foreign ownership rules are applied effectively, 2026 could mark the start of a more sustainable, private sector-led growth phase. If not, uncertainty could dampen the very investment the reforms aim to attract. 

    READ: Investors focus on residential sector for new deals

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    Colin Foreman