meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Kuwait enjoys sustained non-oil growth

25 August 2023

This month’s special report on Kuwait also includes: 

> POLITICS: Stakeholders hope Kuwait can execute spending plans
> ENERGY: Kuwait’s $300bn energy target is a big test
> POWER & WATER: Warming erodes Kuwait’s power and water reserves
> BANKING: Kuwaiti banks enter bounce-back mode
> INTERVIEW: Kuwait’s Gulf Centre United sets course for expansion

 

After witnessing a substantial upswing in its economy in 2022, with real GDP growth surging to 8.2 per cent, according to the IMF, Kuwait’s growth has nominally slowed to 0.1 per cent in 2023. However, this plummet on paper is more a function of the country’s pullback in oil production than any dramatic swing in its economic fate.

Amid the surprise production cuts by the Opec+ producers in April 2023, Kuwait announced a cut of 128,000 barrels a day (b/d), equivalent to about 10 per cent of the group’s 1.15 million b/d in total cuts and around 5 per cent of Kuwait’s output. 

In May and June, Kuwait pumped 2.55 million b/d of crude oil, down from 2.65 million b/d in April. For 2024, the country’s quota is 2.676 million b/d.

This curbing of the country’s primary export has naturally had a significant impact on headline growth, but looking ahead to 2024, the growth rate is projected to recover to 2.7 per cent.

Non-oil sustenance

Behind the fluctuations in Kuwait’s headline real GDP growth due to oil production and prices, the country continues to enjoy strong domestic demand and robust non-oil growth, with 4 per cent non-oil GDP growth in 2022 and a projection of 3.8 per cent growth in 2023, according to the IMF.

The World Bank, meanwhile, expects Kuwait’s non-oil economy to grow by 4.4 per cent in 2023.

Kuwait’s fiscal surplus stood at an estimated 7 per cent of GDP in the 2022/23 fiscal year, although that surplus is expected to disappear in 2023/24 after the Kuwait government approved an expansionary budget with a spending allocation of KD26.3bn ($85.5bn) for the current fiscal period – more than 12 per cent larger than the KD23.5bn spending budget for 2022/23. 

If ultimately spent, the significantly higher allocated expenditure should further stimulate the non-oil economy.

The budget, approved on 2 August before the parliamentary summer recess, anticipates a fiscal deficit of KD6.8bn. This follows Kuwait achieving its first budget surplus in nine years in 2022/23. The current budget is based on an assumed average oil price of $70 a barrel, with an estimated government revenue of KD19.5bn, including KD17.2bn from oil revenue.

Kuwaiti business leaders are cautiously optimistic that this 2023 government could be the one to break the political gridlock

Oil price uncertainty

Looking ahead, oil price volatility remains the key threat to the oil-dependent Kuwaiti economy. Despite this, 2023/24 is conservatively budgeted in terms of its oil price assumptions, broadly aligning with the IMF assumptions for a $73.1 average in 2023, and $68.9 in 2024, and comparing with a July 2023 spot price around the $80-mark.

The hope will be that the price will remain at a higher mark and that the budgeted oil price turns out to be overly precautionary.

However, China’s economy showed signs of slipping again in July, with both imports and exports falling – a worrying sign for global trade and commodity prices. In mid-August, the International Energy Agency lowered its 2024 oil demand growth forecast to 1 million b/d in 2024, down 150,000 b/d from its prior forecast, pointing to a combination of high interest rates, tight credit, and sluggish manufacturing and trade.

The uncertainty of such scenarios should lend haste to the fiscal and structural reforms waiting in the wings. The hope is that Kuwait’s newly minted parliament and cabinet could mean that a resolution to the political gridlock is in sight, offering a path to the fiscal and structural reforms the country requires.

Kuwaiti business leaders are cautiously optimistic that this 2023 government could be the one to break the political gridlock between the government and parliament and reset the loop of successive resignations, reappointments and elections that have recently prevented any reform progress.

Reform requirements

Fiscal measures identified by the IMF as priorities include the need to rationalise Kuwait’s public sector wage bill and phase out energy subsidies, alongside introducing the long-delayed value-added tax and expanding the country’s corporate income tax base. 

Advocated structural reforms include labour market reforms, competition strengthening, and climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Enacting at least some of these reforms will be crucial to Kuwait’s fiscal and economic viability in the medium to long term, with each delay only making tackling items such as the public sector wage bill harder.

In the short term, Kuwait can, of course, keep pumping. In June, Kuwait Oil Company CEO Ahmed Jaber al-Aydan told the Kuwait Times that the country’s oil production capacity would reach 3 million b/d by 2025. He also said the oil company would spend KD13bn ($42.5bn) on oil projects over the next five years. 

The Kuwait government, meanwhile, announced in July that it planned to boost its crude oil production capacity to 3.15 million b/d within four years.

Yet at some point, Kuwait will still need to take a long, hard look at its future finances. All hopes are presently set on the 2023 government being the one to start moving in the right direction.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11071825/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Aramco and Emerson partner for corrosion management

    3 June 2026

    Saudi Aramco has entered into a partnership with US-based industrial automation provider Emerson to jointly develop corrosion management systems.

    As part of the corrosion research and development collaboration, Aramco will “combine its expertise and intellectual property with Emerson’s advanced corrosion solutions to digitalise and transform corrosion management”, Emerson said in a statement.

    For Aramco, corrosion management is a strategic priority that is closely linked to operational performance, safety and environmental stewardship. Continuous corrosion monitoring can replace labour-intensive and potentially hazardous manual inspections while providing a reliable stream of digital data to support decision-making and asset integrity management.

    The collaboration builds on the companies’ existing relationship. In May, Emerson announced the deployment of an artificial intelligence-driven optimisation system for Aramco.

    The current phase of that initiative focuses on expanding a hybrid modelling approach for hydrocracker units across Aramco’s operations. The expansion is expected to improve model accuracy while demonstrating the scalability and robustness of the AI-driven optimisation strategy across the company’s asset base.

    Emerson has steadily expanded its presence in Saudi Arabia over the past 16 years. Key milestones include the opening of facilities in Jubail, Dammam and Dhahran, as well as the launch of a manufacturing hub at King Salman Energy Park (Spark) in 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17091834/main4428.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Iranian drones hit Kuwait International airport’s Terminal 1

    3 June 2026

    Kuwait International airport was struck by a fresh wave of hostile drone attacks on 3 June. The drones caused significant structural damage to Terminal 1 and wounded several individuals.

    Brigadier General Saud Abdulaziz Al-Otaibi, official spokesman for the Ministry of Defence, blamed the strikes on “criminal Iranian aggression”. He confirmed that the injured had been evacuated for medical care and stated that the armed forces remain in a state of complete readiness to secure the state.

    The incident is the third major drone strike on the hub in recent months. On 1 April, a drone strike hit fuel tanks managed by Kuwait Aviation Fuelling Company, sparking massive fires. On March 28, another multi-drone raid severely damaged the airport’s primary radar systems.

    The airport is being expanded with the construction of a new terminal, and works on the project are expected to be completed by 2027. It consists of three packages.

    These are:

    • Package 1: Main works – $4,329m
    • Package 2: Multistorey car park building, connection roads, bridges and landscaping works – $550m
    • Package 3: Aircraft parking, runways and service buildings – $950m

    Turkiye’s Limak Holding is executing the main works.

    The terminal building was designed by Foster+Partners and Gulf Consult.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17089683/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Consortium signs PPA for Taweelah C power plant

    3 June 2026

    Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) has confirmed it has signed a power-purchase agreement (PPA) with a developer consortium for the Taweelah C independent power producer (IPP) project.

    The agreement, which will run through to 2050, was signed with Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), Al-Jomaih Energy & Water Company (Saudi Arabia) and Sembcorp Industries (Singapore), the utility said in a statement.

    Taqa will own a 60% stake in the project, with the international consortium holding 40%. The ADX-listed company will also own 40% of the project’s operations and maintenance company, while the international consortium will own 60%.

    Last month, MEED exclusively revealed that the winning consortium had been selected for the project, with the PPA initially expected to be signed in mid-May.

    It is understood that China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC) will be the engineering, procurement and construction contractor.

    The combined-cycle gas turbine plant will have a capacity of about 2.5GW. It will be located at the Al-Taweelah power and desalination complex, about 50 kilometres northeast of Abu Dhabi city.

    Taweelah C is part of Ewec’s wider programme to support the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 Strategic Initiative and the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy’s Clean Energy Strategic Target 2035.

    Ewec plans to raise solar power capacity to 18GW and wind capacity to 2.6GW by 2035, while reducing the carbon intensity of its power generation by more than half compared with 2019.

    The Taweelah C IPP is now expected to start commercial operations in 2029. The facility had previously been scheduled to begin commercial operations in the fourth quarter of 2028.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17089163/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Local contractor wins Oman water transmission contract

    3 June 2026

     

    Local contractor Al-Jesr United has won the main engineering, procurement and construction contract to reinforce Oman’s Sur water transmission system.

    The contract, awarded by state-owned utility Nama Water Services (NWS), forms part of a project to improve the reliability of potable water supply to Sur, a coastal city about 200 kilometres southeast of Muscat.

    The scheme, estimated to cost $80m, is designed to strengthen the network’s resilience during peak-demand periods and emergencies.

    The scope of work includes upgrading the pumps at the Sur DP Pump Station with variable frequency drive units and replacing ductile iron pipes and fittings within the facility. It also covers about 17km of new transmission pipelines.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, at least five local firms submitted commercial bids for the contract, which was tendered in August 2025.

    These include:

    • Al-Jesr United
    • Al-Rafaa Trading & Contracting
    • Gulf Petrochemical Services & Trading
    • Professionals Trading
    • Sarooj Construction Company

    In June 2024, NWS awarded a $1.3m contract for the project’s design and construction supervision to Muscat-headquartered Ibn Khaldun Almadaen Engineering Consultants.

    Sur is home to one of the sultanate’s key desalination plants, which supplies potable water to communities across eastern Oman. 

    The water transmission project will support network expansion in areas such as Al-Aigah and Ahiae, as the existing ductile iron pipeline serving Wilayat Sur is no longer sufficient to meet current and future demand.

    Construction is expected to start in the third quarter of 2026 and take about two years to complete.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17088454/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Syria to tender gas plant contract

    3 June 2026

     

    Syria is preparing to tender a project to rehabilitate the Conoco gas plant in Deir ez-Zor province in the east of the country within the next 10 weeks, according to a document published by the US-Syria Business Council.

    The gas plant was reclaimed by Syria’s military during an offensive in January this year.

    It is Syria’s largest gas plant, but is severely damaged and cannot be operated in its current condition.

    Before the country’s civil war, it processed 13 million cubic metres of gas a day.

    The US-based companies ConocoPhillips and Novaterra signed a memorandum of understanding with the state-owned Syria Petroleum Company (SPC) to restore the facility in November last year.

    Syria is currently in the midst of a push to ramp up oil and gas production and establish itself as a regional energy hub.

    Earlier this year, Yousef Qiblawy, chief executive of SPC, said that his organisation was aiming to double national oil production before 2027 and boost output to 800,000 barrels a day by the end of 2029, not including offshore production.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17088320/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp