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  Syria makes progress towards reunification

  24 April 2025

  

   

  Following the ousting of Bashar Al-Assad in late 2024, President Ahmed Al-Sharaa has rapidly consolidated power in Syria. He has transitioned from a militant and political outsider into a credible leader increasingly recognised in the region and on the world stage.

  Within Syria, Al-Sharaa faces political, economic, military and civil challenges in pulling the country back together again. In recent weeks, a prominent focus has been the reunification of Syria’s fractured security landscape through the negotiated dissolution and integration of smaller rebel factions into a centralised military structure under the Ministry of Defence.

  Rebel disbandment

  Most recently, the new government brokered the dissolution of the Eighth Brigade, a 3,000-strong rebel group based in the southern city of Daraa that had waged an insurgency against the government of Bashar Al-Assad since 2018.

  That outcome proved a relief to the government after its trustworthiness in talks was thrown into doubt by the chaos that erupted in Syria’s coastal region on 6 March as Islamist groups committed massacres against Alawite civilians in revenge over attacks by Assad loyalists.

  On 9 March, Al-Sharaa appointed a committee to report on the violence, determine its perpetrators and theoretically hold them to account. That move caused some murmurings within his own ranks, but externally it showed the president’s commitment, in principle, to justice.

  It also appeared to serve the political imperatives of the moment. Just a day later, on 10 March, the reassured Kurdish- led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – representing tens of thousands of trained soldiers – signed a deal to integrate its forces into the national army.

  The deal marked perhaps the most significant step towards national reunification so far, promising to restore to government control a swathe of northeastern Syria and its oil fields that has been largely lost to Damascus since the 2014 invasion by the Islamic State.

  The integration of the SDF into the national military also appears to have been accepted by the US, which had been supporting the SDF military as an independent force in the northeast of the country, but has now announced the planned staggered withdrawal of its stationed troops.

  Al-Sharaa has been making his rounds of the region in a diplomatic blitz aimed at shoring up regional support for his new government

  Broader priorities

  Alongside reconsolidating and restructuring the country’s military and security apparatus, Al-Sharaa’s main priorities are foreign affairs and economic policy. These two areas go hand in hand, given that removing international sanctions is key to reviving Syria’s economy.

  In late March, Al-Sharaa entrenched his authority by enacting a new constitutional declaration, announcing a new transitional government and granting himself sweeping executive powers, including the right to appoint a third of the legislature and select judges for the constitutional court.

  The cabinet was also broadened and reshuffled to address concerns over the lack of representation from minority communities. Individuals from the Alawite, Druze and Christian communities, as well as one woman, were appointed to ministerial positions.

  The move further witnessed the replacement of the formerly appointed justice minister Shadi Al-Waisi, whose elevation embarrassed the government after 2015 videos surfaced of him presiding over street executions by morality police as part of the then Nusra Front. His removal was another reassuring step for observers that the government is attuned and reactive to constructive criticism.

  With the right signals sent, Al-Sharaa has been making his rounds of the region in a diplomatic blitz aimed at shoring up regional support for his new government. He is likely also aiming to put the right words in the right ears, in the hope that they filter through the Gulf’s power lobbying system to the US.

  Already on 30 January, just a day after Al-Sharaa became president, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani flew to greet the man who displaced Al-Assad – a goal also long pursued by Doha. On 2 February, Al-Sharaa then took his first trip abroad to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

  Some other regional governments have been more reticent to launch into renewed relations, but have increasingly come on board.

  This includes Iraq, which, hesitant over Al-Sharaa’s past militant activity against Baghdad, only arranged a meeting between the Syrian president and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani on 17 April in Doha – ultimately driven by shared security imperatives. Al-Sudani also invited Al-Sharaa to attend the upcoming Arab summit in Baghdad in May.

  On 14 April, the equally green Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam also met with Al-Sharaa in Damascus – no doubt keen to address the recent border clashes between the two countries. A day earlier, Al-Sharaa was in Abu Dhabi to meet Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, rounding out his visits to the key power brokers and budget holders in the Gulf.

  Between all of these meetings, Al-Sharaa appears to have ingratiated himself with the region’s other leaders with remarkable rapidity and ease. A year after the Arab League reaccepted him in May 2023, Al-Assad had made little comparable progress.

  For world leaders weary from years of dithering by Al-Assad’s government, which was unable or unwilling to even acquiesce to the Gulf’s most basic request – to stem the flow of the drug captagon from within Syria’s borders – Al-Sharaa is at least a partner who can do that and achieve far more besides. 

  For years, it has been the case that a reunified Syria and a rebuilt Syrian economy would lift the entire Levant region and any Gulf investors with it. The appetite in the region to see it succeed has been there. All that has been missing is a suitable partner in Damascus to move forward with.

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  John Bambridge
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  Gulf markets slide as US tariff shockwaves hit

  24 April 2025

  

   

  This package also includes:

  > GCC shelters from the trade wars
  > Lower oil prices raise Gulf’s fiscal pressure
  > Gulf utility projects unbothered by Trump tariffs so far

  ---

  Gulf markets fell sharply after the US announced a new tariff regime on 2 April, triggering declines as trading resumed after Eid. The 10% baseline import duty and levies on aluminium and industrial metals led to selloffs across regional indices.

  Almost all major Gulf indices were dragged down by the tariff shock and began the week on Sunday 6 April with losses: Kuwait’s market dropped 5.7% and Qatar’s fell 4.2%, while the Muscat Securities Market Index declined 2.1% and Bahrain’s All Share Index fell approximately 2.5%. 

  Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index (Tasi) fell 6.1% at the start of trading on 6 April, marking its steepest single-day decline since March 2020 and wiping out over SR500bn ($133.3bn) in value. The index partially recovered, rebounding 0.7% on 7 April and rising 3.7% on 10 April after the US announced a 90-day tariff suspension, its largest daily gain in nearly five years.

  Almost all major Gulf indices were dragged down by the tariff shock

  The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market followed similar trajectories as trading resumed on Monday 7 April. Dubai’s DFM index dropped 3.1%, led by a 5.7% fall in Dubai Islamic Bank. Abu Dhabi’s main index slipped 2.6%, with Adnoc Gas down nearly 5%. 

  Both indices began recovering on 10 April. By 14 April, Dubai’s index had risen 1.8%, led by a 4.7% gain in Emirates NBD and a 3.2% rise in Dubai Islamic Bank, while Abu Dhabi’s index climbed 0.9%.

  Equities dropped sharply across the region on 6 and 7 April, with blue-chip and sector-leading stocks in banking, real estate and energy posting heavy losses. The UAE’s Emaar Properties fell nearly 9% during intraday trading before closing 2.5% lower. 

  The aluminium sector came under scrutiny following the reinstatement of the 25% US import duty. However, the impact was limited, as Gulf aluminium exports, particularly from Bahrain and the UAE, represent a modest share of total output. 

  Oil price drop

  The energy sector was not immune to the volatility. Brent crude dropped nearly 15% to around $64 a barrel – one of its steepest weekly declines in over a year. This slide is significant, given that fiscal breakeven oil prices are estimated at $90.9 for Saudi Arabia and $124.9 for Bahrain. Saudi Aramco lost over SR340bn in market value on 6 April before recovering 1% the next day.

  Gulf petrochemicals producers also came under pressure. Saudi-based petrochemicals manufacturer Sabic is forecast to report a 47% year-on-year decline in Q1 earnings, according to a Riyad Capital report. The report cited softer product pricing and weaker demand from key markets including China and the US as the main cause.

  Oil, energy and most petrochemicals products are exempt from US tariffs. While Gulf trade exposure to the US remains modest, the wider effects were felt through sentiment, capital flows and commodity pricing, and the deeper threat lies in reduced global demand, prolonged oil price weakness and weakened investor appetite. 

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  Sarah Rizvi
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  Market awaits Kuwait’s Shagaya solar tender

  24 April 2025

  

   

  Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy (MEWRE), through the Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp), could issue the request for proposals (RFPs) for a contract to develop the Gulf state’s first utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plant project before the summer.

  According to an industry source, the independent power project (IPP) tender documents are awaiting final approval before they are released to the market.

  MEWRE prequalified six consortiums and companies that can bid for the contract, MEED reported in August last year.

  The Al-Dibdibah power and Al-Shagaya renewable energy phase three, zone one project is understood to have a capacity of 1,100MW.

  The consortiums and companies prequalified to bid for the contract are:

  • Acwa Power (Saudi Arabia) / Alternative Energy Projects Company (local)
  • Trung Nam Construction (Vietnam)
  • EDF Renewables (France) / Abdullah Al-Hamad Al-Sagar & Brothers Company (local) /  Korean Western Power Company (Kowepo, South Korea)
  • Jinko Power (Hong Kong) / Jera (Japan) 
  • Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar, UAE) / Fouad Alghanim & Sons General Trading Contracting Company (local)
  • TotalEnergies Renewables (France)

  The 1,100MW solar PV IPP project is located in the Jahra governorate, about 100 kilometres from the capital, Kuwait City.

  Kapp issued the request for qualifications for the contract in January 2024.

  The package to be tendered comprises the Al-Dibdibah and Shagaya renewable energy phase three, zone one project, Kapp said when it issued the request for qualifications to interested bidders.

  In August 2022, a team led by London-headquartered consultancy firm EY won the transaction advisory contract for the next phases of Kuwait’s renewable energy programme.

  London-headquartered DLA Piper is the legal adviser, while Norwegian engineering services firm DNV is the client’s technical and environmental adviser.

  2030-50 strategy

  Kuwait aims to have a renewable energy installed capacity of 22,100MW by 2030 as part of the 20-year strategy that was announced in March and which ends in 2050.

  Minister of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy, Salem Falah Al-Hajraf, confirmed that the strategy also involves installing distributed or rooftop solar farms, with the state procuring the energy output from solar PV farms.

  Kuwait aims to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2060.

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  Jennifer Aguinaldo
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  Morocco starts tender process for LNG terminal

  24 April 2025

  Morocco has issued a request for expressions of interest from contractors for its planned liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal at the Nador West Med Port.

  Minister of Energy Leila Benali announced that the request had been issued during a conference in the Moroccan city of Ouarzazate.

  During the event, Benali also said that a gas pipeline network will be built to connect the new terminal to the Maghreb Europe Gas Pipeline.

  The network will supply existing and future power plants operated by the National Office for Electricity and Drinking Water, as well as industrial zones extending to Kenitra and Mohammedia.

  It will be later linked to future LNG terminals on Morocco’s Atlantic coast and to the ongoing Nigeria-Morocco Atlantic Gas Pipeline project.

  Benali said that the project is part of Morocco’s efforts to boost the country’s energy security and expand regional partnerships.

  The project to develop the floating LNG Import Terminal in Nador West Med Port has an estimated value of $200m, according to the regional project-tracking service MEED Projects.

  The scope of the project includes:

  • Construction of a floating storage and regasification unit
  • Construction of LNG storage tanks
  • Construction of a natural gas liquids extraction unit
  • Construction of a regasification terminal
  • Marine facilities
  • Installation of safety systems and other related infrastructural facilities
  • Associated facilities

  The client on the project is the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy.

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  Wil Crisp
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  Bahrain sets May deadline for Madinat Salman residences

  24 April 2025

  Bahrain’s Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning has set 21 May as the deadline for a contract to construct 512 residential apartments on plots 15, 18 and 19 on Madinat Salman Island 12.

  The tender notice was issued on 28 January this year.

  Madinat Salman is a group of reclaimed islands located off the north coast of Bahrain.

  The client also received bids for the project management consultancy contract in March.

  The project is part of several schemes being developed by Bahrain’s Ministry of Housing & Urban Planning to address the kingdom’s housing demand.

  Earlier this month, MEED reported that the client is seeking consultants to bid for a contract covering contract management and site supervision services for 507 villas in Madinat Al-Hidd – Village A2 and A3.

  The tender notice was issued on 10 April, and the bid submission date is 4 June.

  According to the official notice, the project is funded through the Kuwaiti grant under the GCC Development Programme to the Kingdom of Bahrain.

  The economic output of Bahrain’s construction industry is expected to grow by 3.5% in real terms in 2025, supported by public and private sector investments in industrial, commercial and energy construction projects, coupled with a rise in the value of tenders awarded, according to a recently published report by GlobalData.

  The total value of tenders awarded grew by 145.2% year-on-year in 2024, preceded by an annual growth of 114.1% in 2023, according to the Tender Board of Bahrain. However, high wage costs and declining construction loans are expected to pose significant downside risk to the industry’s outlook in 2025.

  According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, there were $2.8bn of contract awards in 2024 across all sectors, which includes construction, transport, oil and gas and power and water.

  According to the Central Bank of Bahrain, the average value of outstanding loans and advances to the construction and real estate sector fell by 2.3% in the first 11 months of 2024.

  In the remainder of the forecast period, the construction industry is expected to record an annual average growth of 4.9% in 2026-29, supported by investments in transport infrastructure and renewable energy projects aligned with Bahrain’s Economic Vision 2030.

  Vision 2030 includes the BD11.3bn ($30bn) Strategic Projects Plan, unveiled in October 2021, which encompasses 22 national infrastructure projects. Developments include the creation of five new cities by 2030: Fasht Al-Jarm, Suhaila Island, Fasht Al-Azem, Bahrain Bay and Hawar Islands.

  Growth in the forecast period will also be driven by investments under the National Renewable Energy Action Plan, which targets a 30% reduction in carbon emissions by 2035, compared to 2015 levels, and aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.

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  Yasir Iqbal