meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan economy holds a steady course

7 June 2023

MEED's July 2023 report on Jordan also includes:

> OIL & GAS: Jordan's oil and gas sector battles sluggish phase
> POWER & WATER: Jordan sustains utility infrastructure progress
> CONSTRUCTION: Hospital boost for Jordan construction

 

With attention absorbed by the royal wedding of Jordan's Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah and Saudi architect Rajwa al-Saif in early June, the release of unemployment figures for the first quarter of 2023 showing joblessness at almost 22 per cent suggested it might have been a good day to bury bad news.

Stubbornly high unemployment is only one challenge facing the Hashemite Kingdom. Rising costs have also roused demonstrations. Last December, professional drivers took to the streets to protest against fuel price rises, a side effect of the imposition of IMF-backed fuel subsidy reforms that resulted in a doubling of prices.

And yet, broader inflationary pressures have been mitigated by significant strategic wheat reserves and long-term gas supply arrangements. The country’s dollar peg has also limited foreign exchange volatility.

Inflation still poses a significant risk, say analysts. “Jordan has been largely shielded from the high inflationary pressures affecting the world. However, the country inevitably faced higher prices as both food and fuel supplies have been affected by Russia’s war on Ukraine,” says Farah el-Rafei, Jordan economist at consultancy Oxford Economics.

“If inflation spikes again, this could put significant pressure on the government, given stagnant wages and high unemployment.”

Institutional acclaim

The government’s economic management has won plaudits from the IMF and ratings agencies. The IMF’s most recent assessment issued in May found that despite a challenging global and regional environment, Jordan has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability and access to international capital markets through prudent monetary and fiscal policies.

The fund lauded the kingdom’s post-pandemic recovery, projecting real GDP growth rise to 2.7 per cent in 2023, and inflation for the year to moderate to 3.8 per cent.

This has afforded space to tackle the country’s indebtedness, with ambitions to reduce public debt to 80 per cent of GDP by 2028, from around 90 per cent now. This will be achieved by continued efforts to broaden the tax base, and by improving the efficiency of public spending.  

“The country has made solid progress in implementing the structural reforms suggested by the IMF,” notes El-Rafei.

“Activity has increased via higher tourism and export revenues carried over from 2022, and this momentum is likely to be maintained in 2023.”

If inflation spikes again, this could put significant pressure on the government, given stagnant wages and high unemployment
Farah el-Rafei, Oxford Economics

Persisting difficulties

Despite Jordan’s cushioning against inflation, particularly with food stocks, there is an expectation that rises in prices in the region will inevitably catch up on growth efforts this year. 

Another risk stems from the dollar peg, where higher interest rates raise the cost of borrowing.

“While the US Federal Reserve announced a potential end to the rate hikes, leaving the rates as high as they are for an extended period might suffocate investment in Jordan,” says El-Rafei.

Jordan’s external deficit remains high, reflecting the country’s high import burden. The current account deficit widened to 7 per cent of GDP in the first half of 2022. This external deficit is expected to persist in the short term as global inflation stabilises and regional exports and investments pick up. 

Though the IMF recommends continuing the prudent policies that have preserved macroeconomic stability, the government may find it increasingly difficult to increase tax revenues and change the composition of tax revenues. 

According to Nesreen Barakat, CEO of the Jordan Strategy Forum, total tax revenues are still hovering around 15 to 17 per cent of GDP, and most of these revenues (about 70 per cent) emanate from the country’s sales tax.  

“Broadening the tax base is proving difficult,” she says. “In addition, I wonder how the government can improve the efficiency of public spending when a few spending items, such as wages, pensions and interest payments on public debt, account for a large proportion of total public spending.”

Restrategising growth

Another challenge for Jordan is that merely sustaining the post-pandemic recovery may not be enough. 

In Barakat’s view, given the unemployment challenge, much stronger real GDP growth rates are needed. “Here, I am not confident that the Jordanian economy can achieve higher growth rates in the next few years,” she says.

“If we succeed in implementing the Economic Modernisation Vision’s initiative and public sector reform, we might have a good chance in the long term. Within this context, one cannot underestimate the importance of enhancing and increasing local investments as well as foreign direct investment.”

The Economic Modernisation Vision calls for the private sector to take the lead, accounting for 73 per cent of the total $58.8bn in investment. 

The three-phase vision aims to increase average real income per capita by 3 per cent annually, create 1 million jobs and more than double the nation’s GDP over 10 years. 

For the vision to be realised, a large pipeline of public-private partnership (PPP) schemes is needed, covering water desalination, school construction, clean energy, green hydrogen, transport improvement and road construction, among others. 

Barakat says the government should not just focus on 'large' PPP projects. “The private sector cannot get involved in large and long-term PPP projects,” she says.

“The absence of an active bond market in its primary and secondary aspects makes it impossible for them (entrepreneurs as well as banks) to get involved. I see the private sector getting involved in 'small' PPP projects. This is where the government should be instrumental in determining these projects and seeking private sector partnerships.”

Green opportunities

Another new avenue of thinking is a greater interest in climate spending.

Last year saw the launch of the government’s Green Economy Financing Facility (GEFF), supported by the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, the Green Climate Fund and the EU, to help Jordan transition to a green economy.

Some $22m of funding via three GEFF deals has been disbursed to boost private sector investment in renewable energy and efficient utilisation of water and energy resources. The International Finance Corporation has also announced a $50m investment issued by the Jordan Kuwait Bank. 

“This is particularly significant as Jordan is considered among the most vulnerable to drought due to climate change, which remains a high risk due to capacity shortages,” says El-Rafei. 

Such long-term strategising will be key to developing Jordan’s economic potential. But in the meantime, there are near-term hurdles to navigate amid a challenging international context that is forcing higher borrowing costs. The danger remains that this could choke investment opportunities that are essential to Jordan’s recovery.  

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10921043/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Developers prepare bids for 1GW Oman bess scheme

    12 October 2026

     

    Developers are preparing to submit bids for almost 1GW of standalone battery energy storage (bess) projects in Oman, a source close to the project has confirmed to MEED.

    The independent power producer (IPP) scheme includes the installation of five bess facilities with a combined power capacity of 950MW and storage capacity of 3,800MWh. Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (PWP) is procuring it.

    According to sources close to the project, a developer’s tender was floated in the summer. An initial bid submission deadline has since been extended, with bids expected to be submitted in the coming weeks.

    The largest project is a 500MW facility in Sohar, Al-Batinah North governorate, with a storage capacity of 2,000MWh. The Sohar facility is expected to connect to the grid at 220kV. The site covers approximately 149,535 square metres.

    Four further installations are planned at Al-Mabellah in Muscat governorate, Ayjah in South Al-Sharqiyah, the Jalan Bani Bu Ali wind farm site in South Al-Sharqiyah, and Sadah in Dhofar.

    The Al-Mabellah and Ayjah facilities are each planned to have a capacity of 100MW and storage capacity of 400MWh. Both are expected to connect to the grid at 132kV.

    The Jalan Bani Bu Ali installation is planned to have a capacity of 150MW and storage capacity of 600MWh. It is expected to connect to the Sadah wind farm and Jalan Bani Bu Ali wind farm substations.

    The Sadah installation is planned to have a capacity of 100MW and storage capacity of 400MWh. It is expected to connect to the Sadah wind farm substations at 132kV.

    US/India-based Synergy Consulting is the financial adviser for the procurement; Germany’s Fichtner is the technical adviser; and Germany-headquartered CMS is the legal adviser.

    Utility-scale storage

    In May, Oman’s Authority for Public Services Regulation (APSR) opened technical bids for a consultancy contract supporting a planned 1,000MW/four-hour bess project.

    As previously reported, APSR issued the request for proposals in April as part of wider plans to increase the share of renewable energy in the sultanate. 

    The sultanate’s first utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plant integrated with battery energy storage (Ibri 3) entered construction at the beginning of the year, comprising a 500MW solar PV plant and a 100MWh bess system.

    Also in May, state offtaker Nama Power & Water Procurement Company signed a power purchase agreement with local firm O-Green for Oman’s first round-the-clock renewable energy project.

    Renewable energy is expected to increase from 4% of the generation mix in 2024 to 30% by 2030, driving the push for more utility-scale storage projects.

    Over roughly the same period, demand is forecast to double, reaching 10 terawatt-hours by 2031.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20511976/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Frontrunner emerges for Saudi Arabia’s GCC rail link design

    12 October 2026

     

    French engineering firm Systra has emerged as the frontrunner to provide design consultancy services for the Saudi Arabian section of the GCC railway network, which is intended to link all six member states.

    The tender covers the concept, preliminary and issued-for-construction design stages. Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) requires the selected consultant to review, update and complete the existing preliminary design.

    Consultants submitted proposals on 14 July, as MEED reported.

    The consultants who submitted bids included: 

    • AtkinsRealis with Khatib & Alami
    • Deutsche Bahn with ARX
    • Egis with Sener
    • Idom with Dar Al-Handasah
    • Systra

    Saudi Arabia’s section of the railway will start at Al-Khafji in the Eastern Province, near the border with Kuwait, and end at Al-Batha, on Saudi Arabia’s border with the UAE. The route in Saudi Arabia will be about 672 kilometres (km) long.

    Tendering is also ongoing for a separate contract involving design management and review to oversee engineering works on the GCC railway network.

    The tender was issued on 9 September, with a submission deadline of 18 October, as MEED exclusively reported.

    The tender seeks a consultant to manage, audit and verify deliverables produced by SAR’s separately appointed design services consultant, rather than carry out the design itself.

    Construction will be tendered separately through competitive bidding once designs are approved.

    The GCC railway will run for about 672km inside Saudi Arabia, linking the kingdom’s existing network to Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain, with four sections of about 141km, 200km, 151km and 21km, respectively.

    The line is planned as a single-track, non-electrified corridor for mixed freight and passenger traffic, with a maximum axle load of 32.4 tonnes and passing loops for bidirectional working.

    GCC railway line

    Under the overall plan, the railway will run from Kuwait, pass through Dammam in Saudi Arabia, reach Bahrain via a planned causeway, and continue from Dammam to Qatar, the UAE and, ultimately, Muscat via Sohar in Oman. The railway is reported to cover about 2,186km in total.

    The route length within each member state is as follows:

    • UAE – 684km
    • Saudi Arabia – 672km
    • Oman – 306km
    • Qatar – 283km
    • Kuwait – 145km
    • Bahrain – 36km

    The railway is designed for passenger trains travelling at 220 kilometres an hour (km/h) and freight trains operating at 80km/h–120km/h.

    With high levels of project activity, governments in spending mode and renewed cooperation under the Al-Ula Declaration, the latest efforts to restart the GCC railway project may make more progress than previous attempts. If completed, the railway could prove transformational for a region that is globally connected but still divided by national borders.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20510318/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Houthi escalation targets Saudi airports

    12 October 2026

    Yemen’s Houthis have placed Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation infrastructure at the centre of their campaign against the kingdom. Two strikes on King Khalid International airport in Riyadh over the weekend killed 13 people and injured 320.

    The deadlier attack hit a passenger terminal on the afternoon of 10 October. The General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca) said it killed 12 people, including four Saudi citizens, and injured 309. Airport operations were suspended pending a damage assessment.

    A second strike hit Terminal 4 on the afternoon of 11 October, sparking a fire that killed a Pakistani resident and injured 11 others, according to Gaca. The Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting a cruise missile near the airport that afternoon. Gaca also reported an attack on King Fahd International airport in Dammam that evening, following a coalition report of a projectile falling near the facility the previous night.

    The weekend strikes followed attacks on Abha International airport on 6 October and on King Khalid International airport on 7 and 8 October, the last of which included a strike on a Saudia aircraft. Gaca figures put the toll from the week’s attacks on Saudi airports at 19 dead and more than 350 injured.

    The Houthis said they would continue operations inside the kingdom and that all Saudi airports were potential targets, with the exception of those serving the holy cities. The group says it is acting in response to Riyadh’s support for Yemeni government forces and a Saudi air strike on Sanaa airport. It has also claimed attacks on Saudi oil facilities, which Saudi authorities have not confirmed.

    Aviation exposure

    The attacks strike a sector central to the kingdom’s diversification plans. King Khalid International airport’s existing terminals are to be absorbed into King Salman International airport (KSIA), a 57-square-kilometre development with six parallel runways targeting a capacity of 120 million passengers by 2030 and 185 million by 2050.

    Procurement on KSIA has gathered pace this year. In July, a joint venture of China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and Dammam-based Mofarreh AlHarbi & Partners won an estimated SR800m ($213m) contract for enabling and substructure works on Terminal 6, which will add capacity for 40 million passengers. Turkish contractor IC Ictas and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting recently secured a SR800m ($213m) contract for the airport’s Private Aviation Terminal.

    Government-owned Saudi Royal Aviation set 8 October as the bid deadline for an estimated SR3bn ($800m) contract to build an aviation complex within the KSIA masterplan, the same day the Houthis struck King Khalid International airport and a Saudia aircraft.

    Airlines have already adjusted. Flydubai cancelled flights to Riyadh and Yanbu up to 10 October and to Abha up to 11 October, and Etihad Airways reported extended delays on its Abu Dhabi to Riyadh service after the airport closed on 8 October. The UK Foreign Office has advised against all travel to areas within 10km of the Yemeni border.

    Market reaction

    The Saudi stock market’s response has been muted so far. The Tadawul main index fell 15.54 points to close at 10,360.74 on 11 October, the first trading session after the Saturday attack, with turnover of SR2.6bn ($693m). The session closed before the second strike on King Khalid International airport and the attack on Dammam, and Monday’s trading will be the first to reflect the full weekend.

    The weekend also brought a separate maritime incident. UK Maritime Trade Operations said an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 11 October, with its crew reported safe.

    Diplomatic response

    The coalition described the 10 October attack as a war crime and said it would respond decisively. It said on 10 October that it had destroyed 136 military targets in Houthi-controlled areas and was working to dismantle the group’s ballistic missile network.

    Egypt, Pakistan and Turkiye joined Saudi Arabia in an R4 group statement condemning the attacks and supporting measures taken by the kingdom in response. The Arab League also voiced its support for Saudi Arabia. On 11 October, Iran’s foreign minister spoke by telephone with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal Bin Farhan, to discuss the escalation. The US and UK have also signalled the possibility of further support for the kingdom.

    The escalation comes against the backdrop of the regional conflict, which has drawn Saudi Arabia into a renewed Yemen front after several years of relative calm following the 2022 ceasefire. The extent of the damage at King Khalid International airport, which Gaca is still assessing, and the speed at which international carriers resume full schedules will determine how far the attacks disrupt the kingdom’s aviation programme.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20505600/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Egypt and Saudi Arabia sign oil and gas deal

    12 October 2026

    Egypt and Saudi Arabia have signed an agreement to strengthen cooperation in the oil, natural gas and petrochemicals sectors, according to a statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

    The memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed in Riyadh by Karim Badawi, Egypt’s minister of petroleum and mineral resources, and Abdulaziz Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s minister of energy.

    Under the agreement, both sides will enhance cooperation in trading, transporting, storing and distributing crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas.

    They will also expand cooperation on developing the infrastructure and logistics services that support these activities.

    In its statement, Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources said: “These efforts will contribute to improving energy market efficiency, enhancing the resilience and reliability of supply chains, and strengthening energy security.”

    The MoU also provides for expanded cooperation in exchanging expertise and best practices in operating and developing fuel stations, as well as in transporting and tracking petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas cylinders.

    Additionally, the agreement seeks to explore investment opportunities in joint projects and promote exports.

    The latest agreement comes as Egypt becomes an increasingly important export route for Saudi Arabia.

    Due to disruptions and security risks affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been redirecting crude exports via its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

    Meanwhile, the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, at the southern end of the Red Sea, has also become a security concern due to military activity in Yemen. Egypt offers an alternative route through the Sumed pipeline, which runs from Ain Sokhna on the Red Sea to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20503239/main.jpeg
    Wil Crisp
  • JGC yet to return evacuated workers to Basra refinery

    12 October 2026

     

    Japan’s JGC has yet to bring evacuated workers back to the Basra refinery project in Iraq, according to industry sources.

    JGC evacuated its personnel from the site in the southern oil hub of Basra following the start of the regional conflict on 28 February, when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

    The evacuation halted work on the project, which was in its final construction stage.

    On 14 August 2026, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil announced that it had signed an agreement with JGC to resume work on the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) project at Basra refinery.

    One source said: “Even though the agreement to bring the evacuated workers back was signed about two months ago, there is still no sign of the evacuated workers on the project site.

    “It is possible that they will return soon, but it is hard to tell what will happen next in the current security environment.”

    Earlier this month, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil said it met with Japanese officials to discuss plans to commission the FCC unit under the Basra refinery upgrade project.

    The statement did not say when the evacuated JGC workers would return to the project site.

    Strategic project

    Iraq’s state-owned South Refineries Company (SRC) sent JGC notice of the main contract award for the FCC package of the Basra refinery upgrade project in August 2020.

    JGC was awarded the contract in consortium with South Korea’s Hyundai E&C.

    The official contract signing ceremony was held in Baghdad on 1 October 2020.

    The contract awarded to JGC, which uses the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning model, was worth $3.78bn.

    The FCC package is part of a broader project to upgrade the Basra refinery.

    The project site is located about 12 kilometres east of Iraq’s southern city of Basra.

    The wider upgrade project involves installing new facilities on land adjacent to the existing Basra refinery, including a vacuum distillation unit and a diesel desulphurisation unit.

    In April 2021, France’s Axens won a contract in Iraq to provide four process technologies to SRC for the Basra refinery upgrade project.

    The technologies that SRC selected are:

    • Diesel hydrotreatment unit (Prime-D)
    • Vacuum gasoil (VGO) hydrotreating unit
    • VGO fluid catalytic cracker unit
    • Oligomerisation unit (polynaphtha)

    In addition, Axens is providing catalysts and adsorbents, proprietary equipment, training and technical services.

    MEED’s latest report on Iraq includes:

    > COMMENT: Iraq’s reform window narrows
    > GOVERNMENT: Al-Zaidi takes Iraq’s premiership under US shadow
    > BANKING: Financial challenge tests Iraq’s resolve
    > ECONOMY: Iraq enters era of resilience, reform and rising risks 
    > OIL & GAS:     Iraqi oil and gas sector in crisis
    > POWER & WATER: Focus shifts to delivery of Iraq utilities expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Momentum builds in Iraq’s post-war construction sector

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20503212/main.png
    Wil Crisp