meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Jordan economy holds a steady course

7 June 2023

MEED's July 2023 report on Jordan also includes:

> OIL & GAS: Jordan's oil and gas sector battles sluggish phase
> POWER & WATER: Jordan sustains utility infrastructure progress
> CONSTRUCTION: Hospital boost for Jordan construction

 

With attention absorbed by the royal wedding of Jordan's Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah and Saudi architect Rajwa al-Saif in early June, the release of unemployment figures for the first quarter of 2023 showing joblessness at almost 22 per cent suggested it might have been a good day to bury bad news.

Stubbornly high unemployment is only one challenge facing the Hashemite Kingdom. Rising costs have also roused demonstrations. Last December, professional drivers took to the streets to protest against fuel price rises, a side effect of the imposition of IMF-backed fuel subsidy reforms that resulted in a doubling of prices.

And yet, broader inflationary pressures have been mitigated by significant strategic wheat reserves and long-term gas supply arrangements. The country’s dollar peg has also limited foreign exchange volatility.

Inflation still poses a significant risk, say analysts. “Jordan has been largely shielded from the high inflationary pressures affecting the world. However, the country inevitably faced higher prices as both food and fuel supplies have been affected by Russia’s war on Ukraine,” says Farah el-Rafei, Jordan economist at consultancy Oxford Economics.

“If inflation spikes again, this could put significant pressure on the government, given stagnant wages and high unemployment.”

Institutional acclaim

The government’s economic management has won plaudits from the IMF and ratings agencies. The IMF’s most recent assessment issued in May found that despite a challenging global and regional environment, Jordan has managed to maintain macroeconomic stability and access to international capital markets through prudent monetary and fiscal policies.

The fund lauded the kingdom’s post-pandemic recovery, projecting real GDP growth rise to 2.7 per cent in 2023, and inflation for the year to moderate to 3.8 per cent.

This has afforded space to tackle the country’s indebtedness, with ambitions to reduce public debt to 80 per cent of GDP by 2028, from around 90 per cent now. This will be achieved by continued efforts to broaden the tax base, and by improving the efficiency of public spending.  

“The country has made solid progress in implementing the structural reforms suggested by the IMF,” notes El-Rafei.

“Activity has increased via higher tourism and export revenues carried over from 2022, and this momentum is likely to be maintained in 2023.”

If inflation spikes again, this could put significant pressure on the government, given stagnant wages and high unemployment
Farah el-Rafei, Oxford Economics

Persisting difficulties

Despite Jordan’s cushioning against inflation, particularly with food stocks, there is an expectation that rises in prices in the region will inevitably catch up on growth efforts this year. 

Another risk stems from the dollar peg, where higher interest rates raise the cost of borrowing.

“While the US Federal Reserve announced a potential end to the rate hikes, leaving the rates as high as they are for an extended period might suffocate investment in Jordan,” says El-Rafei.

Jordan’s external deficit remains high, reflecting the country’s high import burden. The current account deficit widened to 7 per cent of GDP in the first half of 2022. This external deficit is expected to persist in the short term as global inflation stabilises and regional exports and investments pick up. 

Though the IMF recommends continuing the prudent policies that have preserved macroeconomic stability, the government may find it increasingly difficult to increase tax revenues and change the composition of tax revenues. 

According to Nesreen Barakat, CEO of the Jordan Strategy Forum, total tax revenues are still hovering around 15 to 17 per cent of GDP, and most of these revenues (about 70 per cent) emanate from the country’s sales tax.  

“Broadening the tax base is proving difficult,” she says. “In addition, I wonder how the government can improve the efficiency of public spending when a few spending items, such as wages, pensions and interest payments on public debt, account for a large proportion of total public spending.”

Restrategising growth

Another challenge for Jordan is that merely sustaining the post-pandemic recovery may not be enough. 

In Barakat’s view, given the unemployment challenge, much stronger real GDP growth rates are needed. “Here, I am not confident that the Jordanian economy can achieve higher growth rates in the next few years,” she says.

“If we succeed in implementing the Economic Modernisation Vision’s initiative and public sector reform, we might have a good chance in the long term. Within this context, one cannot underestimate the importance of enhancing and increasing local investments as well as foreign direct investment.”

The Economic Modernisation Vision calls for the private sector to take the lead, accounting for 73 per cent of the total $58.8bn in investment. 

The three-phase vision aims to increase average real income per capita by 3 per cent annually, create 1 million jobs and more than double the nation’s GDP over 10 years. 

For the vision to be realised, a large pipeline of public-private partnership (PPP) schemes is needed, covering water desalination, school construction, clean energy, green hydrogen, transport improvement and road construction, among others. 

Barakat says the government should not just focus on 'large' PPP projects. “The private sector cannot get involved in large and long-term PPP projects,” she says.

“The absence of an active bond market in its primary and secondary aspects makes it impossible for them (entrepreneurs as well as banks) to get involved. I see the private sector getting involved in 'small' PPP projects. This is where the government should be instrumental in determining these projects and seeking private sector partnerships.”

Green opportunities

Another new avenue of thinking is a greater interest in climate spending.

Last year saw the launch of the government’s Green Economy Financing Facility (GEFF), supported by the European Bank for Reconstruction & Development, the Green Climate Fund and the EU, to help Jordan transition to a green economy.

Some $22m of funding via three GEFF deals has been disbursed to boost private sector investment in renewable energy and efficient utilisation of water and energy resources. The International Finance Corporation has also announced a $50m investment issued by the Jordan Kuwait Bank. 

“This is particularly significant as Jordan is considered among the most vulnerable to drought due to climate change, which remains a high risk due to capacity shortages,” says El-Rafei. 

Such long-term strategising will be key to developing Jordan’s economic potential. But in the meantime, there are near-term hurdles to navigate amid a challenging international context that is forcing higher borrowing costs. The danger remains that this could choke investment opportunities that are essential to Jordan’s recovery.  

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10921043/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Rua Al-Madinah signs hotel operations agreement

    26 November 2025

    Saudi Arabia’s Rua Al-Madinah, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) subsidiary tasked with Medina’s tourism and cultural development, has signed a hotel operations and management agreement with Adeera Hospitality for its Rua Al-Madinah project.

    Adeera Hospitality, which PIF also backs, will operate two buildings comprising 250 hotel rooms and 120 residential units under its Alia brand within the Rua Al-Madinah project, which is being developed near the Prophet’s Mosque.

    Adeera joins Rua Al-Madinah’s roster of hotel operators, which includes leading global hospitality brands such as Marriott, Hyatt, Accor and Hilton.

    The Rua Al-Madinah development includes the construction of 18 hotels under three categories – three-star, four-star and five-star – as well as secondary infrastructure.

    The towers will range in height from 11 to 21 storeys.

    Rua Al-Madinah estimates that superblock five will require 430,000 cubic metres of concrete, 875,000 square metres of block wall, 423,000 sq m of drywall, 74,000 tonnes of steel rebar, 215,000 sq m of tiles, and 228,000 sq m of facades, curtain walls and windows.

    The hotels, which will mainly provide accommodation for pilgrims visiting the holy city, will have a built-up area of about 65,000 sq m.

    In February last year, the client awarded two contracts worth SR300m ($80m) to international consulting firms for work on the superblocks four and five components of the Rua Al-Madinah project.

    Rua Al-Madinah signed a contract with US-based engineering firm Jacobs for design consultancy services for 12 hotels and other infrastructure for superblock four of the project.

    Another contract was signed with US-based KEO International Consultants to oversee the implementation of the superblock five project.

    Other consultants working on superblock five include US-based Perkins Eastman and Singapore-based Meinhardt. 

    UAE-based Ema Design is the interior designer.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15158923/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Meraas confirms $517m The Acres villas contract award

    26 November 2025

    Dubai-based real estate developer Meraas, now part of Dubai Holding Group, has confirmed that it has awarded a AED1.9bn ($517m) contract to build 642 three-, four- and five-bedroom villas as part of the first phase of its residential community, The Acres, in Dubailand.

    The contract was awarded to the local firm United Engineering Construction Company.

    MEED exclusively reported in August that Meraas had awarded the contract for the project.

    The Acres project is designed by local architectural practice U+A Architects.

    The masterplan includes 1,200 villas ranging from three to seven bedrooms.

    It also features a nursery, school, clinic, mosques, clubhouses, a retail zone, a 2,000-square-metre garden, walking and biking trails, an outdoor gym, children’s playgrounds, swimming pools and sports facilities.

    The latest announcement follows Meraas awarding a AED440m ($120m) contract for the construction of the Northline residential project in the Al-Wasl area of Dubai.

    The contract was awarded to the local GCC Contracting Company.

    The project includes the construction of three residential buildings. Construction work is expected to begin shortly, and the project is slated for completion by 2027.

    Meraas’ latest project contract awards in Dubai are backed by heightened real estate activity in the UAE’s construction market. Schemes worth over $323bn are in the execution or planning stages, according to UK analytics firm GlobalData.

    The company forecasts that the output of the UAE’s construction sector will grow by 4.2% in real terms in 2025, supported by developments in infrastructure, energy and utilities, as well as residential construction projects.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15158561/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • December deadline for Riyadh airport fourth runway

    26 November 2025

     

    King Salman International Airport Development Company (KSIADC) has allowed firms until 3 December to bid for the design-and-build contract for the fourth runway at King Salman International airport (KSIA) in Riyadh.

    The tender was first floated on 17 April. The previous bid submission deadline was 28 October.

    It is understood that the third and fourth runways will add to the two existing runways at Riyadh’s King Khalid International airport, which will eventually become part of KSIA.

    KSIADC, which is backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, prequalified firms in September last year for the main engineering, procurement and construction packages; early and enabling works; specialist systems and integration; specialist systems, materials and equipment; engineering and design; professional services; health, safety, security, environment and wellbeing services; modular installation and prefabrication; local content; and environmental, social, governance and other services.

    The entire scheme is divided into eight assets. These are:

    • Iconic Terminal
    • Terminal 6
    • Private aviation terminal 
    • Central runway and temporary apron
    • Hangars
    • Landside transport
    • Cargo buildings
    • Real estate

    In August last year, KSIADC confirmed it had signed up several architectural and design firms for the various elements of the project.

    US-based firm Bechtel Corporation will manage the delivery of three new terminals, including the terminal for commercial carriers, Terminal 6 for low-cost carriers and a new private aviation terminal with hangars.

    Parsons, also of the US, was chosen as the delivery partner for two packages. One covers the airside infrastructure, including the runways, taxiways, air traffic control towers, fuel farms and fire stations. The other involves the infrastructure connecting the airport to the rest of the city, including utilities and roads.

    UK-based Foster+Partners will design the airport’s masterplan, including the terminals, six runways and a multi-asset real estate area.

    US-based engineering firm Jacobs will provide specialist consultancy services for the masterplan and the design of the new runways.

    UK-based engineering firm Mace was appointed as the project’s delivery partner and local firm Nera was awarded the airspace design consultancy contract.

    Project scale

    The project covers an area of about 57 square kilometres (sq km), allowing for six parallel runways, and will include the existing terminals at King Khalid International airport. It will also include 12 sq km of airport support facilities, residential and recreational facilities, retail outlets and other logistics real estate.

    If the project is completed on time in 2030, it will become the world’s largest operating airport in terms of passenger capacity, according to UK analytics firm GlobalData.

    The airport aims to accommodate up to 120 million passengers by 2030 and 185 million by 2050. The goal for cargo is to process 3.5 million tonnes a year by 2050.

    Saudi Arabia plans to invest $100bn in its aviation sector. Riyadh’s Saudi Aviation Strategy, announced by the General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca), aims to triple Saudi Arabia’s annual passenger traffic to 330 million travellers by 2030.

    It also aims to increase air cargo traffic to 4.5 million tonnes and raise the country’s total air connections to more than 250 destinations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15158546/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Chinese contractor appointed for Algerian refinery project

    26 November 2025

    China’s Sinopec Guangzhou Engineering Company has signed a contract for the construction of a heavy naphtha catalytic processing unit at the Arzew refinery in Algeria.

    The contract was signed with the Algerian national oil and gas company Sonatrach.

    The contract uses the engineering, procurement, construction and operation model.

    Under the terms of the contract, Sinopec Guangzhou Engineering Company will handle the entire project lifecycle, from initial design to long-term management and operation.

    The project will be completed over 30 months, according to a statement from the Algerian Ministry of Hydrocarbons & Mines.

    The unit will have an annual capacity of 738,000 tonnes of heavy naphtha and will enable the refinery to increase gasoline production from 550,000 tonnes to 1.2 million tonnes a year.

    Algeria’s Ministry of Hydrocarbons & Mines said this represented “a significant step” that will strengthen the national capacity for gasoline production and help meet demand across various regions, particularly in the west and southwest of the country.

    Sinopec Guangzhou Engineering Company is a subsidiary of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), which is listed on stock exchanges in Hong Kong, Shanghai and New York.

    The project is part of Sonatrach’s wider programme to modernise and expand national refining capacities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15157814/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Egypt seeks to accelerate progress on chemicals facility

    26 November 2025

    Egypt’s government is attempting to accelerate progress on the country’s $680m project to develop a new soda ash production facility.

    The country’s cabinet has granted state-owned Egyptian Soda Ash Company a so-called “golden licence” to develop the plant, which will also produce derivatives of soda ash.

    The golden licence is a single approval given by the cabinet that consolidates multiple permits into one, in an effort to speed up project progress.

    The golden licence includes permits relating to land allocation, construction, operation and management of the project.

    In February this year, China National Chemical Corporation was appointed as the main contractor for the project.

    The plant is set to produce 600,000 tonnes of soda ash and derivatives annually, making it one of the largest industrial projects of its kind in the region.

    The project is being developed on a 1.12 million-square-metre plot in the industrial zone of New Alamein City.

    It will create 600 direct jobs and 2,000 indirect jobs, according to a statement from the cabinet.

    The factory is expected to be completed by mid-2027, with an investment cost exceeding $680m.

    Soda ash is a basic, alkaline industrial chemical used in large volumes worldwide.

    The project aims to meet local market demand for soda ash and to expand related industries, such as glass, detergents, paper, metals and pharmaceuticals.

    The local component of production inputs will be no less than 50% per tonne of the finished product, in terms of both value and quantity.

    Egyptian Soda Ash Company is a subsidiary of Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (Echem), which was established in 2002 to develop, manage and expand the North African country’s petrochemicals sector.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15157812/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp