meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

​IMF downgrades Mena growth forecast

1 February 2024

The Washington-based IMF has revised down the expected real GDP growth figure for the Middle East and North Africa region for 2024 to 2.9%, down from the previous projection of 3.4% in its October economic outlook.

The downgraded growth forecast reflects, among other things, the deepening of the voluntary oil production cuts as part of a further Opec+ agreement in November, as well as the heightened instability in the region as a result of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea crisis.

The most recent agreement among the Opec+ members saw half a dozen countries agree to additional voluntary production cuts through to the end of Q1 2024 – in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024.

The regional oil producers that agreed to these additional cuts were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman, with the six countries collectively accounting for a 1.6 million barrel a day reduction in oil output, led by Riyadh, which alone cut 1 million b/d.

In the same update, the IMF revised down Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7%, down from a previous projection of 4.0% in its October economic outlook.

A week ago, the fund’s concluding statement to its Article IV consultation with Oman also saw it lower the growth forecast for that country to 1.4%, down from a previous forecast of 2.7% growth.

Both revisions reflect the country-level economic impact of these additional voluntary cuts, which will have an even greater impact on the fiscal side, cutting into government revenues and possibly spending.

Geopolitical impacts

The other major influence on the regional economy in the past three months has been the eruption of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea shipping crisis.

These twin events have had considerable impact on the most adjacent geographies, with the war in Gaza affecting economies across the Levant, as well as regional tourism, and the Red Sea crisis hitting trade.

In mid-December, a study commissioned by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that the economic cost of the war in Gaza on neighbouring Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon was set to exceed $10bn in 2023 alone and had the potential to push 230,000 more people into poverty.

It noted that the conflict was impacting consumption and trade and exacerbating the existing weak growth, high unemployment and fiscal pressure in the three countries.

Egypt has been acutely affected by both the impact on tourism and the fall in receipts from the passage of ships transiting through the Suez Canal – both major sources of revenue for the Egyptian government.

On 26 January, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that weekly transits through the Suez Canal had fallen by 42% over the past two months, and that container ship transits specifically had plummeted by 67% as compared to one year previously.

However, the largest impact has been on liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, which have stopped altogether since 16 January, according to Jan Hoffmann, trade logistics chief at UNCTAD.

Cross-sector impacts

Tourism has also been severely impacted since the commencement of hostilities in October, with the significant tourism markets of Egypt and Jordan being subject to mass flight and hotel cancellations. For Lebanon, the regional economic crisis has merely compounded the already dire domestic economy crisis.

In the IMF’s January briefing, research department division chief Daniel Leigh noted that for Egypt, “despite strong tourism performance overall in 2023, there’s been a slowdown since the start of the conflict in Gaza, in Israel, with hotel bookings clearly coming down.

“Now, on top of that, there’s the escalation and the Red Sea attacks, which may impact, and are impacting, foreign exchange inflows. That’s about $700m a month, a very important source of foreign currency for Egypt.”

Leigh said the uncertainty of the situation was already impacting investment prospects, creating an even more urgent need for additional financing to enable reforms and bring inflation down to restore growth.

The IMF is currently in discussions with Cairo over the provision of additional financing to the Egyptian government in the form of an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the fund alongside a reform programme.

More broadly, the IMF has assessed that the shockwaves from the war in Gaza have already caused current accounts across the region to deteriorate and given rise to $30bn in additional financing needs among Arab states outside of the Gulf, with further fallout expected if the conflict drags on.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11480373/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Populous wins Bahrain Sports City contract

    21 April 2026

     

    US-based engineering firm Populous has won a BD5m ($13.5m) contract for the Sports City development at Sakhir in Bahrain.

    The contract was awarded by Bahrain’s Ministry of Works, Municipalities Affairs & Urban Planning.

    The scope covers pre-contract consultancy services, including finalising the masterplan and internal infrastructure, completing phase 1A design works and preparing tender documents.

    Populous is a specialist sports venue designer that formerly operated as part of HOK Group.

    The contract was first tendered in 2021, when Populous emerged as the sole bidder.

    At the time, it was reported that Sports City would include Bahrain’s largest sports stadium and a multi-purpose indoor sports arena.

    The project is expected to provide renewed impetus to Bahrain’s construction and transport sector, which has struggled in recent years, with the total value of awarded contracts falling for a third consecutive year.

    According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, about $400m-worth of contracts had been awarded in Bahrain by the end of October last year – less than half the $1.2bn recorded during the same period the previous year.

    The sector has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Before 2020, Bahrain consistently awarded more than $2bn in contracts annually, peaking at nearly $4bn in 2016.

    Bahrain’s construction industry is forecast to record average annual growth of 4.9% in 2026-29, supported by investments in transport infrastructure and renewable energy projects aligned with Bahrain’s Economic Vision 2030.

    Vision 2030 includes the BD11.3bn ($30bn) Strategic Projects Plan, unveiled in October 2021, encompassing 22 national infrastructure projects. It also includes plans to create five new cities by 2030: Fasht Al-Jarm, Suhaila Island, Fasht Al-Azem, Bahrain Bay and the Hawar Islands.

    Growth over the forecast period is also expected to be driven by investments under the National Renewable Energy Action Plan, which targets a 30% reduction in carbon emissions by 2035, compared to 2015 levels, and aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16487784/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Entries now open for MEED Projects Awards 2026

    21 April 2026

    Enter the awards

    The MEED Projects Awards in association with Mashreq 2026 have officially opened for entries, inviting companies, developers, contractors and project teams to submit their projects for the region’s most prestigious construction awards.

    For over 15 years, the MEED Projects Awards have celebrated the Middle East and North Africa’s most ambitious and transformative projects, recognising technical excellence, innovation, sustainability and delivery impact. Past editions have highlighted landmark developments that set new benchmarks for the region’s built environment, including internationally recognised projects such as Burj Khalifa and Louvre Abu Dhabi.

    “The MEED Projects Awards are the gold standard for recognising outstanding achievements in construction across Mena, showcasing the region’s technical and design excellence while bringing the industry together to celebrate and connect over the very best projects of the year,” said Ed James, head of content and research at MEED.

    “As a long-standing partner of the MEED Projects Awards, Mashreq is proud to support a programme that is recognised for its independence, credibility and industry impact. These awards celebrate projects that set benchmarks for excellence and contribute meaningfully to the region’s development,” said Arun Mathur, executive vice-president and global head of contracting finance at Mashreq.

    Winners are chosen through a rigorous, independent judging process, led by a panel of more than 50 senior industry experts representing developers, contractors, engineers and project specialists. The awards celebrate projects across a wide range of sectors, including Building, Transport, Energy, Water, Healthcare, Education, Hospitality, Culture, Industrial, Power, Small Projects and Developments.

    Being shortlisted or winning a MEED Projects Award places a project among the region’s elite, offering regional recognition, global exposure and industry credibility.

    Submissions are now open, with full category details and entry guidelines available on the official entry platform.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16487756/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Egypt to build Olympic Village project on Red Sea

    21 April 2026

    Egypt has moved to back a major new sports development on the Red Sea coast, officially assigning a 225-acre plot for a planned Olympic Village in the Red Sea Governorate.

    The site is located opposite the resort destination of El-Gouna, giving the project access to an established tourism corridor.

    The development is intended to strengthen Egypt’s ambition to become a hub for international sports tourism, with facilities designed to support large-scale regional and global championships.

    Plans include stadiums and purpose-built arenas designed to meet Olympic-level requirements, enabling the complex to accommodate multiple sports and event formats.

    To support visiting delegations and spectators, the Olympic Village is expected to include on-site hospitality facilities, including a hotel.

    The project is intended to operate as an integrated, self-contained destination capable of staging regional and international tournaments, while also leveraging the Red Sea’s year-round appeal for camps, friendlies and seasonal training programmes.

    According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, Egypt’s residential construction sector is expected to grow by 8.3% from 2026 to 2029, supported by investments in the housing sector and the government’s focus on addressing the country’s growing housing deficit amid a rising population.

    The commercial construction sector is expected to register real-term growth of 6.6% in 2026-29, supported by a rebound in the tourism and hospitality markets and an improvement in investment in office buildings and wholesale and retail trade activities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16485900/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Algeria launches oil and gas licensing round

    21 April 2026

    Algeria has launched a new bid round offering seven exploration blocks to international companies.

    The round was launched by the National Agency for the Valorisation of Hydrocarbon Resources (Alnaft), which manages and regulates the upstream oil and gas sector in the country.

    The blocks are located in the regions of Ouargla, Illizi, Touggourt and El-Bayadh. Both oil and gas assets are included.

    The blocks on offer are:

    • Est Bordj Omar Driss 1
    • Illizi Centre 1
    • El-M’Zaid Nord
    • El-Borma 2
    • El-Hadjira 3
    • El-Benoud Est
    • Touggourt Sud

    Technical evaluation of bids will cover exploration, development and production optimisation plans.

    All bids – except those for Est Bordj Omar Driss 1– will also be assessed against financial criteria, including the bidder’s participation rate in financing upstream operations.

    Successful bidders will access the assets through contracts with Sonatrach, either via production service agreements or participation agreements, depending on the block.

    Algeria is currently seeing an uptick in demand for its gas exports due to the disruption to exports from Qatar and the UAE in the wake of the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16478927/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Nakheel awards $143m Dubai Islands infrastructure deal

    20 April 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai-based developer Nakheel, now part of Dubai Holding, has awarded a AED527m ($143m) contract for the construction of the primary infrastructure and utilities works on Island B at the Dubai Islands development.

    The contract was awarded to local firm Al-Nasr Contracting Company.

    The scope covers the construction of roads, water networks, electrical and telecommunications networks, drainage and sewerage systems, and integration with the district cooling plant network at Island A.

    In October last year, Nakheel awarded Al-Nasr Contracting Company a AED169m ($46m) contract for the construction of the internal roads and utilities for the Bay Villas development at Dubai Islands.

    In August, MEED reported that Nakheel had awarded a AED2.6bn ($708m) contract to Abu Dhabi-based Fibrex Contracting to build the Bay Villas project at Dubai Islands. The contract includes the construction of 636 villas.

    The Dubai Islands development consists of five islands spanning 18.6 square kilometres. It features more than 59 kilometres (km) of waterfront and 20km of beaches, as well as parks, golf courses, promenades and cycling paths.

    The offshore island project gained renewed momentum in 2022, when Nakheel unveiled a new masterplan and rebranded it as Dubai Islands.

    The reclaimed islands were originally part of the Palm Deira project, which was partially completed before being put on hold in 2008.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16476987/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal