meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

​IMF downgrades Mena growth forecast

1 February 2024

The Washington-based IMF has revised down the expected real GDP growth figure for the Middle East and North Africa region for 2024 to 2.9%, down from the previous projection of 3.4% in its October economic outlook.

The downgraded growth forecast reflects, among other things, the deepening of the voluntary oil production cuts as part of a further Opec+ agreement in November, as well as the heightened instability in the region as a result of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea crisis.

The most recent agreement among the Opec+ members saw half a dozen countries agree to additional voluntary production cuts through to the end of Q1 2024 – in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024.

The regional oil producers that agreed to these additional cuts were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman, with the six countries collectively accounting for a 1.6 million barrel a day reduction in oil output, led by Riyadh, which alone cut 1 million b/d.

In the same update, the IMF revised down Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7%, down from a previous projection of 4.0% in its October economic outlook.

A week ago, the fund’s concluding statement to its Article IV consultation with Oman also saw it lower the growth forecast for that country to 1.4%, down from a previous forecast of 2.7% growth.

Both revisions reflect the country-level economic impact of these additional voluntary cuts, which will have an even greater impact on the fiscal side, cutting into government revenues and possibly spending.

Geopolitical impacts

The other major influence on the regional economy in the past three months has been the eruption of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea shipping crisis.

These twin events have had considerable impact on the most adjacent geographies, with the war in Gaza affecting economies across the Levant, as well as regional tourism, and the Red Sea crisis hitting trade.

In mid-December, a study commissioned by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that the economic cost of the war in Gaza on neighbouring Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon was set to exceed $10bn in 2023 alone and had the potential to push 230,000 more people into poverty.

It noted that the conflict was impacting consumption and trade and exacerbating the existing weak growth, high unemployment and fiscal pressure in the three countries.

Egypt has been acutely affected by both the impact on tourism and the fall in receipts from the passage of ships transiting through the Suez Canal – both major sources of revenue for the Egyptian government.

On 26 January, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that weekly transits through the Suez Canal had fallen by 42% over the past two months, and that container ship transits specifically had plummeted by 67% as compared to one year previously.

However, the largest impact has been on liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, which have stopped altogether since 16 January, according to Jan Hoffmann, trade logistics chief at UNCTAD.

Cross-sector impacts

Tourism has also been severely impacted since the commencement of hostilities in October, with the significant tourism markets of Egypt and Jordan being subject to mass flight and hotel cancellations. For Lebanon, the regional economic crisis has merely compounded the already dire domestic economy crisis.

In the IMF’s January briefing, research department division chief Daniel Leigh noted that for Egypt, “despite strong tourism performance overall in 2023, there’s been a slowdown since the start of the conflict in Gaza, in Israel, with hotel bookings clearly coming down.

“Now, on top of that, there’s the escalation and the Red Sea attacks, which may impact, and are impacting, foreign exchange inflows. That’s about $700m a month, a very important source of foreign currency for Egypt.”

Leigh said the uncertainty of the situation was already impacting investment prospects, creating an even more urgent need for additional financing to enable reforms and bring inflation down to restore growth.

The IMF is currently in discussions with Cairo over the provision of additional financing to the Egyptian government in the form of an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the fund alongside a reform programme.

More broadly, the IMF has assessed that the shockwaves from the war in Gaza have already caused current accounts across the region to deteriorate and given rise to $30bn in additional financing needs among Arab states outside of the Gulf, with further fallout expected if the conflict drags on.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11480373/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Bidders get more time for Jebel Ali sewage EPC contract

    29 April 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality has extended the deadline for contractors to submit bids for a contract covering the expansion of the Jebel Ali sewage treatment plant (STP) phases one and two.

    Contractors now have until June to submit offers, a source told MEED. Bidding had been expected to close on 30 April.

    The upgraded facility will be capable of treating an additional sewage flow of 100,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d), with the expansion estimated to cost $300m.

    The scope includes the design, construction and commissioning of infrastructure and systems required to support the increased capacity.

    Located on a 670-hectare site in Jebel Ali, the original wastewater facility has a treatment capacity of about 675,000 cm/d following the completion of phase two in 2019, combining approximately 300,000 cm/d from phase one and 375,000 cm/d from phase two.

    The main element of the expansion involves modifications to the secondary treatment process at Jebel Ali STP phase two.

    UK-headquartered KPMG and UAE-based Tribe Infrastructure are serving as financial advisers on the project.

    Future expansion

    It is understood that the project is part of long-term plans to treat about 1.05 million cm/d once all future phases are completed.

    According to sources, this includes a Jebel Ali-based build-operate-transfer (BOT) project to be developed under a public-private partnership (PPP) model.

    It is understood that the prequalification process for this will begin in the coming months.

    In February, MEED exclusively revealed that the municipality is preparing to tender the main construction package for the Warsan STP by the end of the year.

    As MEED understands, the Warsan STP had previously been planned as a PPP project.

    The main package will now be procured as an engineering, procurement and construction contract, a source said.

    The project involves the construction of a sewage treatment plant with a capacity of about 175,000 cm/d, including treatment units, sludge handling systems and associated infrastructure.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16608027/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • UAE’s departure from Opec marks a tectonic shift

    29 April 2026

    Commentary
    Indrajit Sen
    Oil & gas editor

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The UAE’s decision to leave Opec and the Opec+ grouping marks a significant turning point in global oil markets and highlights shifting geopolitical dynamics and evolving supply expectations.

    The UAE announced it will leave the producer alliance effective 1 May, ending nearly six decades of membership. The move reflects a broader strategic shift, as the country seeks greater flexibility over its production policy amid rising capacity and changing market conditions.

    For oil markets, this is about more than one country wanting to pump more oil. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has spent billions of dollars over the years to raise crude production capacity to 5 million barrels a day.

    Opec+ quotas had increasingly looked as though they were stifling Abu Dhabi’s growing desire to maximise revenues by tapping into its expanded spare capacity. Leaving the Opec+ coalition gives Abu Dhabi more room to monetise those investments.

    The timing also matters. It comes against a backdrop of regional security concerns, tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and a sense that consumers are once again being squeezed by high energy costs and depleted strategic reserves. 

    The immediate dip in the price of global benchmark Brent crude following the announcement of the UAE’s decision on 28 April showed the market’s first instinct: more UAE barrels could mean more supply and lower prices. However, the price rebound on 29 April, with Brent trading around $111 a barrel, also tells the other half of the story: extra capacity does not instantly become risk-free supply when regional bottlenecks and security threats remain front and centre.

    For Opec+, this is a blow to unity and to Saudi Arabia’s ability to marshal producer discipline. It does not mean that a price war will start tomorrow, but it raises the risk of other member states choosing to abandon the alliance’s cooperation mechanism and pursue a higher market share. In trading terms, this adds a new volatility premium: more potential supply, less cartel discipline and a Gulf energy landscape that looks significantly less predictable.

    The announcement comes at a time of heightened uncertainty in global energy markets, with geopolitical tensions, supply chain constraints and demand recovery trends all contributing to price volatility. The UAE’s exit is expected to reshape market expectations around supply flexibility and producer coordination.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16608006/main.gif
    Indrajit Sen
  • Kuwait Oil Company prepares to sign flowline contract

    29 April 2026

     

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) is preparing to sign a contract worth KD174.2m ($565m) with Kuwait-based Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco), according to industry sources.

    The contract is focused on developing flowlines and associated works in North Kuwait.

    One source said: “The contract is expected to be signed soon and everything associated with the contract award process is moving very smoothly.”

    Heisco announced in a stock exchange statement earlier this month that it had received a formal contract award letter for the project.

    While progress on the project is moving smoothly for now, the project may be impacted by fallout from the US and Israel’s war with Iran in the future.

    The project requires a large volume of pipelines to be transported into Kuwait, which would normally be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Heisco was the fourth-lowest bidder for the contract.

    Also this month, Heisco submitted the lowest bid for a project to upgrade part of the Mina Abdullah refinery’s export infrastructure.

    It submitted a bid of KD11,919,652 ($38.6m) for the project to implement renovation works on the artificial island that forms part of the port at the refinery.

    The only other bidder was Kuwait’s International Marine Construction Company (IMCC), which submitted a bid of KD12,480,113 ($40.4m).

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16599814/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Algerian-Indian team makes oil and gas discovery in Libya

    29 April 2026

    A consortium of state-owned companies from India and Algeria has made an oil and gas discovery in Libya’s Ghadames basin.

    The consortium comprises Algeria’s Sonatrach International Petroleum Exploration & Production (Sipex), Oil India and Indian Oil Corporation.

    The discovery was made in the Area 95/96 block, which is located near Libya’s border with Algeria.

    In a statement, India’s Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas said that the well was completed to a final depth of 8,440 feet and achieved production of 13 million cubic feet of gas a day and 327 barrels of condensate a day during testing.

    The hydrocarbons were extracted from the Awynat Wanin and Awyn Kaza formations.

    The ministry added: “The discovery reflects the growing global footprints of Indian energy companies, importance of strategic international alliances, and our commitment to strengthening national energy security through overseas assets acquisition by national oil companies.”

    The consortium won the exploration and production rights for the block, which covers an area of nearly 7,000 square kilometres, during Libya’s fourth oil and gas licensing round in December 2007.

    Stakeholders are expecting a surge in oil and gas project activity in Libya after the country’s rival legislative bodies recently approved a unified state budget for the first time in more than 13 years.

    The Central Bank of Libya confirmed on 11 April that both chambers had endorsed the budget, saying that it was a key step towards restoring financial stability after prolonged division.

    The budget is valued at LD190bn ($29.95bn), and LD12bn ($1.9bn) has been allocated to the NOC.

    An additional LD40bn ($6.3bn) has been allocated for “development projects”.

    Libya has stated that a joint committee has been formed to help prioritise development projects, and the projects have been listed in the budget.

    The development comes at a time when Libya’s oil and gas sector could be positioned to make windfall revenues as oil and gas prices remain high due to fallout from the US and Israel’s war with Iran.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16599813/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • UAE and Saudi firms plan data centre projects in Saudi Arabia

    29 April 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    UAE-based firm Taranis Capital has signed a memorandum of understanding agreement with Saudi Arabia’s Emaar Executive Company to build several data centre facilities in the kingdom.

    According to a statement, the firms plan to develop, construct and operate a portfolio of data centre facilities, each with a capacity of 40-50MW.

    Emaar Executive Company will provide engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) capabilities, alongside its design and operations expertise.

    Saudi Arabia and the UAE are leading the market expansion of data centres through hyperscale campuses, sovereign cloud initiatives and edge data centre deployments.

    Data centres have become foundational infrastructure across the region, underpinning national digital economies and enabling cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, smart cities, e-government platforms, fintech and cybersecurity resilience.

    Governments and enterprises are accelerating investment as data localisation requirements and power-intensive AI applications drive sustained demand for capacity.

    Data centre development is closely aligned with national strategies such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the UAE’s digital economy and AI roadmaps, and wider smart city programmes across the GCC.

    These agendas are translating into long-term demand for high-capacity, energy-efficient and resilient data centre infrastructure. 

    Priorities include hyperscale and colocation facilities to support cloud service providers; edge data centres to reduce latency and enable 5G and IoT use cases; energy-efficient designs using advanced cooling, modular construction and renewables; and strategic partnerships between global hyperscalers, local developers and utilities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16595179/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal