meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

​IMF downgrades Mena growth forecast

1 February 2024

The Washington-based IMF has revised down the expected real GDP growth figure for the Middle East and North Africa region for 2024 to 2.9%, down from the previous projection of 3.4% in its October economic outlook.

The downgraded growth forecast reflects, among other things, the deepening of the voluntary oil production cuts as part of a further Opec+ agreement in November, as well as the heightened instability in the region as a result of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea crisis.

The most recent agreement among the Opec+ members saw half a dozen countries agree to additional voluntary production cuts through to the end of Q1 2024 – in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024.

The regional oil producers that agreed to these additional cuts were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman, with the six countries collectively accounting for a 1.6 million barrel a day reduction in oil output, led by Riyadh, which alone cut 1 million b/d.

In the same update, the IMF revised down Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7%, down from a previous projection of 4.0% in its October economic outlook.

A week ago, the fund’s concluding statement to its Article IV consultation with Oman also saw it lower the growth forecast for that country to 1.4%, down from a previous forecast of 2.7% growth.

Both revisions reflect the country-level economic impact of these additional voluntary cuts, which will have an even greater impact on the fiscal side, cutting into government revenues and possibly spending.

Geopolitical impacts

The other major influence on the regional economy in the past three months has been the eruption of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea shipping crisis.

These twin events have had considerable impact on the most adjacent geographies, with the war in Gaza affecting economies across the Levant, as well as regional tourism, and the Red Sea crisis hitting trade.

In mid-December, a study commissioned by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that the economic cost of the war in Gaza on neighbouring Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon was set to exceed $10bn in 2023 alone and had the potential to push 230,000 more people into poverty.

It noted that the conflict was impacting consumption and trade and exacerbating the existing weak growth, high unemployment and fiscal pressure in the three countries.

Egypt has been acutely affected by both the impact on tourism and the fall in receipts from the passage of ships transiting through the Suez Canal – both major sources of revenue for the Egyptian government.

On 26 January, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that weekly transits through the Suez Canal had fallen by 42% over the past two months, and that container ship transits specifically had plummeted by 67% as compared to one year previously.

However, the largest impact has been on liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, which have stopped altogether since 16 January, according to Jan Hoffmann, trade logistics chief at UNCTAD.

Cross-sector impacts

Tourism has also been severely impacted since the commencement of hostilities in October, with the significant tourism markets of Egypt and Jordan being subject to mass flight and hotel cancellations. For Lebanon, the regional economic crisis has merely compounded the already dire domestic economy crisis.

In the IMF’s January briefing, research department division chief Daniel Leigh noted that for Egypt, “despite strong tourism performance overall in 2023, there’s been a slowdown since the start of the conflict in Gaza, in Israel, with hotel bookings clearly coming down.

“Now, on top of that, there’s the escalation and the Red Sea attacks, which may impact, and are impacting, foreign exchange inflows. That’s about $700m a month, a very important source of foreign currency for Egypt.”

Leigh said the uncertainty of the situation was already impacting investment prospects, creating an even more urgent need for additional financing to enable reforms and bring inflation down to restore growth.

The IMF is currently in discussions with Cairo over the provision of additional financing to the Egyptian government in the form of an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the fund alongside a reform programme.

More broadly, the IMF has assessed that the shockwaves from the war in Gaza have already caused current accounts across the region to deteriorate and given rise to $30bn in additional financing needs among Arab states outside of the Gulf, with further fallout expected if the conflict drags on.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11480373/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Chinese and Saudi partners set up Hithium Manat

    17 October 2024

    Register for MEED's 14-day trial access 

    Chinese energy storage solutions firm Hithium Energy Storage Technology Company (Hithium) and the local Nabilah AlTunisi have formed a joint venture that will manufacture battery energy storage systems (bess) in Saudi Arabia.

    The joint venture is called Hithium Manat. The planned manufacturing facility has an annual production capacity target of 5 gigawatt-hours (GWh), according to an official statement.

    Hithium launched energy storage solutions designed for the region's harsh environment during a solar and storage conference held in Riyadh.

    According to Hithium, "These systems feature advanced sandstorm protection and robust high and low-temperature designs, supporting ultra-long discharge cycles of 12+ hours."

    It added that the new product line is "customised to meet the unique demands of the Middle East and Africa region".

    Nabilah AlTunisi is the founder and owner of Hithium Manat's local partner.

    "This strategic alliance will not only provide access to world-class energy storage technology but also generate local employment opportunities, stimulate technological innovation and actively contribute to realising the kingdom's Vision 2030 objectives," AlTunisi said.

    Battery energy storage market

    In August, National Grid Saudi Arabia, a subsidiary of state utility Saudi Electricity Company, awarded the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for three energy storage systems to Riyadh-based investment group Algihaz Holding. The estimated $800m projects are located in Najran, Madaya and Khamis Mushait.

    National Grid also recently tendered contracts for the construction of five battery energy storage systems with a total combined capacity of 2,500MW across the kingdom.

    The planned facilities, each with a capacity of 500MW or roughly 2,000 megawatt-hours, are located in or within proximity of the following key cities and load centres:

    • Riyadh
    • Qaisumah
    • Dawadmi
    • Al-Jouf
    • Rabigh

    Every utility in the region is procuring or planning to procure bess capacity in light of growing intermittent renewable power in their grids. 

    The overall capacity of deployed bess globally is expected to reach 127GW by 2027, up from an estimated cumulative deployment of 36.7GW at the end of 2023, a GlobalData report issued in June said.

    The report cited Chinese companies BYD and CATL and South Korean companies LG Energy Solutions and Samsung SDI among the top battery technology providers globally.

    Related read: Battery storage gains foothold

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12742375/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Kahramaa invites Ras Laffan substation bids

    17 October 2024

    Qatar state utility General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) has tendered a contract to upgrade the Ras Laffan C substation.

    The scope of work covers the upgrade of existing 220-kilovolt (kV) and 400kV substations and the addition of 220kV gas-insulated switchgear bays and an 800-megavolt amps transformer.

    Kahramaa issued the tender on 15 October and expects to receive bids by 28 November.

    The project bid bond is valued at QR1.5m ($410,000).

    Separately, Kahramaa invited firms to submit their proposals for a contract to supply and install power transmission and distribution equipment, including providing and connecting substation main earth and equipment earthing, commissioning fitted substations and pre-commissioning protection testing for 11kV switchgear panels.

    Kahramaa expects to receive bids for this contract, with a bid bond of QR3m, by 14 November.

    Kahramaa is expanding its power generation capacity. Negotiations are under way with the sole bidder led by Japan's Sumitomo Corporation for a contract to develop and operate Qatar’s Facility E independent water and power producer (IWPP) project.

    The Facility E IWPP scheme will have a power generation capacity of 2,300MW and a water desalination capacity of 100 million imperial gallons a day.

    Earlier this month, Qatar Electricity & Water Company announced plans to develop a 500MW peak power unit in Qatar's Ras Abu Fontas area.

    Construction is also under way for two solar farms with a total combined capacity of 875MW in Mesaieed and Ras Laffan.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12742343/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Neom starts Tabuk highway prequalifications

    17 October 2024

     

    Saudi Arabian gigaproject developer Neom expects firms to submit their prequalification applications for a project to build a mountain road near Tabuk later this month.

    The 11.5-kilometre (km) Tabuk mountain road project comprises a 4km tunnel and 7.5km dualisation of an existing road, according to an industry source.

    Neom expects to receive statements of qualifications from interested engineering, procurement and construction contractors by 29 October.

    The tender proceedings for Neom's transport infrastructure projects are gathering momentum.

    Neom received expressions of interest for a contract to build a coastal highway and infrastructure project catering to the Magna development on the Gulf of Aqaba on 15 October.

    The project, called Magna Infrastructure Packages, is split into three. Package one is 13km, package two is 42km and package three is 41km. The packages cater to the development’s north, central and south areas.

    The design-and-build project covers utilities for water, power, mobility, sewer, buildings and highways, in addition to the coastal highway. The project is expected to be completed by 2027.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12738632/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Adnoc completes Fertiglobe stake acquisition

    16 October 2024

    Register for MEED's 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has completed the transaction to acquire a majority stake in UAE-headquartered Fertiglobe, the largest nitrogen-based fertiliser producer in the Middle East and North Africa region.

    Adnoc has increased its shareholding in Fertiglobe to 86.2% through the acquisition of 50% + 1 share held by Netherlands-based OCI Global, which is backed by Egyptian billionaire Nassef Sawiris. The Abu Dhabi energy giant previously held a 36.2% stake in Fertiglobe.

    The remaining 13.8% of Fertiglobe’s shares trade on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange following the company's stock listing in October 2022.

    Adnoc announced the transaction to become the majority shareholder in Fertiglobe last December. Fertiglobe’s shares were priced at AED3.2 ($0.87) a share, valuing the deal at $3.62bn.

    Following the completion of the majority acquisition, “Fertiglobe’s current management team will stay in place”, including Ahmed El-Hoshy in his role as CEO, Adnoc said in a statement on 15 October.

    “Ahmed El-Hoshy spent 15 years growing OCI’s US and European business in ammonia and methanol via greenfields, brownfields and acquisitions, generating significant value for shareholders by leading recent divestments,” Adnoc said.

    Growing chemicals business

    Fertiglobe is the world’s largest seaborne exporter of urea and ammonia combined, exporting to 53 countries with a collective market share of about 10% of global trade in these products.

    “The acquisition represents … the expansion of Adnoc’s low-carbon fuels business, and supports its goal to become a top-five global chemicals player,” Adnoc said.

    “Fertiglobe will become the platform for Adnoc’s growth in fertiliser and low-carbon ammonia,” Adnoc said in its statement.

    Adnoc added it will transfer its stakes in existing and future low-carbon ammonia projects to Fertiglobe “at cost and when ready for startup”, including its two projects in Abu Dhabi and other projects in its global portfolio. Adnoc has yet to specify the low-carbon ammonia and blue ammonia production projects.

    MEED understands that the first Abu Dhabi project in question is the blue ammonia facility in the Taziz Industrial Chemicals Zone in Ruwais. Fertiglobe has partnered with South Korea’s GS Energy Corporation and Japanese investment firm Mitsui & Company to build the complex, which will have a production capacity of 1 million tonnes a year (t/y).

    In February last year, the joint venture awarded Italian firm Tecnimont the main contract for executing the engineering, procurement and construction works on the Taziz blue ammonia project.

    The second Abu Dhabi blue ammonia project that Adnoc could be referring to in its statement is a proposed scheme for which it signed a joint feasibility study agreement with British energy producer BP in May 2022.

    Adnoc further said that the two projects in Abu Dhabi will add 2 million t/y of output potential, more than doubling Fertiglobe’s current commercial ammonia capacity of 1.6 million t/y and increasing its total sellable capacity to 8.6 million t/y of net ammonia and urea combined, in addition to other announced global projects.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12735570/main1542.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Neom receives interest for Magna coastal highway

    16 October 2024

     

    Saudi Arabia’s gigaproject developer Neom has received interest from firms for the contract to build a coastal highway and infrastructure project linking Neom to the Magna development on the Gulf of Aqaba.

    The project, called Magna Infrastructure Packages, is split into three. 

    Package 1 is 13 kilometres, package 2 is 42km and package 3 is 41km.

    The packages cater to the development’s north, central and south areas.

    According to an industry source, the design-and-build project covers utilities for water, power, mobility, sewer, buildings and highways. It could cost between $250m and $500m.

    Local and international engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors are understood to have submitted their expressions of interest to participate in the tender on 15 October.

    The coastal highway and infrastructure project is expected to be completed by 2027, the source said.

    Magna consists of 12 developments featuring 15 hotels that offer 1,600 hotel rooms, suites and apartments and over 2,500 residences.

    The development will span a 120km-long coastal strip with an average width of 3.5km. The total land area is about 430 square kilometres.

    The Magna infrastructure is divided into six districts, as follows:

    • District 1 – Northern Gateway: includes 13 bridges and underpasses with a length of 1.9km, 18 wadi culverts and five drainage culverts
    • District 2 – Romantic Bay and the Cube: includes two bridges and underpasses spanning 360 metres, 40 wadi culverts and 24 drainage culverts
    • District 3 – Wadi Tayyib: includes two bridges and underpasses, 26 wadi culverts and nine drainage culverts
    • District 4 – Jungle Club: includes three bridges and underpasses and 17 wadi culverts
    • District 5 – Magna: includes two bridges and underpasses, 14 wadi culverts and two drainage culverts
    • District 6 – Southern Gateway: includes three bridges and underpasses, 31 wadi culverts and one drainage culvert
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12735899/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo