meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

​IMF downgrades Mena growth forecast

1 February 2024

The Washington-based IMF has revised down the expected real GDP growth figure for the Middle East and North Africa region for 2024 to 2.9%, down from the previous projection of 3.4% in its October economic outlook.

The downgraded growth forecast reflects, among other things, the deepening of the voluntary oil production cuts as part of a further Opec+ agreement in November, as well as the heightened instability in the region as a result of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea crisis.

The most recent agreement among the Opec+ members saw half a dozen countries agree to additional voluntary production cuts through to the end of Q1 2024 – in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024.

The regional oil producers that agreed to these additional cuts were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman, with the six countries collectively accounting for a 1.6 million barrel a day reduction in oil output, led by Riyadh, which alone cut 1 million b/d.

In the same update, the IMF revised down Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7%, down from a previous projection of 4.0% in its October economic outlook.

A week ago, the fund’s concluding statement to its Article IV consultation with Oman also saw it lower the growth forecast for that country to 1.4%, down from a previous forecast of 2.7% growth.

Both revisions reflect the country-level economic impact of these additional voluntary cuts, which will have an even greater impact on the fiscal side, cutting into government revenues and possibly spending.

Geopolitical impacts

The other major influence on the regional economy in the past three months has been the eruption of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea shipping crisis.

These twin events have had considerable impact on the most adjacent geographies, with the war in Gaza affecting economies across the Levant, as well as regional tourism, and the Red Sea crisis hitting trade.

In mid-December, a study commissioned by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that the economic cost of the war in Gaza on neighbouring Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon was set to exceed $10bn in 2023 alone and had the potential to push 230,000 more people into poverty.

It noted that the conflict was impacting consumption and trade and exacerbating the existing weak growth, high unemployment and fiscal pressure in the three countries.

Egypt has been acutely affected by both the impact on tourism and the fall in receipts from the passage of ships transiting through the Suez Canal – both major sources of revenue for the Egyptian government.

On 26 January, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that weekly transits through the Suez Canal had fallen by 42% over the past two months, and that container ship transits specifically had plummeted by 67% as compared to one year previously.

However, the largest impact has been on liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, which have stopped altogether since 16 January, according to Jan Hoffmann, trade logistics chief at UNCTAD.

Cross-sector impacts

Tourism has also been severely impacted since the commencement of hostilities in October, with the significant tourism markets of Egypt and Jordan being subject to mass flight and hotel cancellations. For Lebanon, the regional economic crisis has merely compounded the already dire domestic economy crisis.

In the IMF’s January briefing, research department division chief Daniel Leigh noted that for Egypt, “despite strong tourism performance overall in 2023, there’s been a slowdown since the start of the conflict in Gaza, in Israel, with hotel bookings clearly coming down.

“Now, on top of that, there’s the escalation and the Red Sea attacks, which may impact, and are impacting, foreign exchange inflows. That’s about $700m a month, a very important source of foreign currency for Egypt.”

Leigh said the uncertainty of the situation was already impacting investment prospects, creating an even more urgent need for additional financing to enable reforms and bring inflation down to restore growth.

The IMF is currently in discussions with Cairo over the provision of additional financing to the Egyptian government in the form of an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the fund alongside a reform programme.

More broadly, the IMF has assessed that the shockwaves from the war in Gaza have already caused current accounts across the region to deteriorate and given rise to $30bn in additional financing needs among Arab states outside of the Gulf, with further fallout expected if the conflict drags on.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11480373/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Taqa raises $750m to finance water projects

    30 July 2026

    Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) has issued a $750m five-year blue bond to finance sustainable water and wastewater management projects.

    The company said the transaction is the largest blue bond issuance in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region. It is also the largest blue bond issued by an integrated power and water utility globally.

    Issuing the bond allows Taqa to raise money from investors specifically to support water-related environmental projects. These can include desalination, wastewater treatment, water recycling and reuse, and infrastructure that improves water efficiency.

    It is the first blue bond issued under Taqa’s Green and Blue Finance Framework, and follows another blue financing transaction in the UAE earlier this year.

    On 8 January, Dubai-based Emirates NBD bank announced the completion of a $1bn dual-tranche sustainable bond issuance, comprising a $300m blue tranche with a three-year tenor and a $700m green tranche with a five-year tenor.

    Emirates NBD said at the time that the $300m tranche was the largest blue bond issued in the UAE and GCC. The proceeds are intended to support marine conservation and sustainable water projects, while proceeds from the green tranche will finance green initiatives.

    Taqa launched its original Green Finance Framework in 2023 and updated it in 2026 to include blue financing instruments. The latest issuance takes its total green and blue labelled bond issuances to $2.6bn since 2023.

    The Taqa financing also comes as the company expands and modernises its water infrastructure. Taqa is targeting reverse-osmosis technology for 66% of its desalination capacity by 2030, up from about 40% in 2025.

    In June, Taqa awarded a contract for the construction of a 1-million-cubic-metre emergency lagoon in Abu Dhabi. The project will be developed in two phases.

    Phase one has a capacity of 500,000 cubic metres and is planned to be completed within 18 months of the contract award.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17845953/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • UAE renewables firm secures $375m in financing

    30 July 2026

    Positive Zero, the UAE-based renewable energy firm, has announced the successful closing of a financing facility of up to $375m.

    The long-term financing was arranged by Paris-headquartered Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking (Natixis CIB) and Saudi Arabia-based The Arab Energy Fund.

    Natixis CIB also acted as financial adviser, facility agent, security agent and green loan coordinator for the transaction.

    “The non-recourse financing is the first transaction of its kind in the region for a diversified portfolio of decentralised infrastructure assets, including distributed solar power generation, energy efficiency and clean mobility solutions,” Positive Zero said in a statement.

    “The financing will provide substantial long-term capital to support Positive Zero’s continued expansion in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar, funding the growth of its distributed infrastructure portfolio, capital expenditure programme and strategic development initiatives,” the Dubai-based firm said.

    The new debt facility secured by Positive Zero builds on US-based BlackRock’s investment of up to $400m in the company in 2023, “further strengthening the company’s capital structure and supporting the next phase of its growth”.

    Positive Zero has the largest distributed solar capacity in the region with more than 500MW in operations and under construction, avoiding more than 450,000 metric tonnes a year of carbon emissions.

    The company has also saved over 100 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) in energy consumption across its client portfolio through its energy-efficiency solutions.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17845491/main3835.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • US-Saudi consortium to build $5bn refinery outside Strait of Hormuz

    30 July 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    A consortium of privately owned US and Saudi companies has announced an investment commitment of $5bn to build an integrated oil refining, storage and export facility outside the volatile Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.

    After three years of evaluating sites across the Gulf, the consortium has shortlisted three GCC locations beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Discussions have advanced over the past two years, with a preferred site expected to be selected by the end of 2026.

    The consortium, Mera Oil, comprises Fort Worth, Texas-based MWG Enterprises; the US-based Patel Family Office; and PWS, an associate company of Saudi Arabia’s AHQ Group.

    Mera Oil said it remains open to alternative proposals that meet its infrastructure, resilience and development requirements.

    The proposed project will feature a 200,000-barrel-a-day refinery, deepwater port connectivity, large-scale crude and refined-product storage, and marine export facilities.

    A pre-feasibility study covering refinery design, logistics, capital requirements and execution planning is at an advanced stage.

    Once a host jurisdiction is confirmed, the project will proceed to detailed site assessments and engineering design, with mechanical completion targeted for end-2029, followed by commissioning and the start of commercial operations.

    The consortium plans to focus on producing high-specification middle distillates, including ultra-low sulphur diesel and jet fuel, for selected international markets.

    The project is expected to occupy about 1,200-1,500 acres of port-connected industrial land and could create up to 3,000 direct jobs, and around 15,000 indirect and induced jobs, during construction and operations.

    Mera Oil is also progressing discussions with feedstock suppliers and expects financing to include sponsor equity, sovereign and institutional investment, project finance, export-credit support and sharia-compliant funding structures.

    “Designed as a route-resilient energy hub, the development aims to strengthen regional manufacturing, logistics, technical expertise and energy security,” Mera Oil said.

    The first phase of the planned investment will “incorporate energy-efficient refining technologies, emissions-control systems, and potential future capabilities including sustainable aviation fuel co-processing and carbon management.”

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17843946/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Local contractor to build nine Bahrain substations

    30 July 2026

     

    Bahrain’s Electricity & Water Authority (EWA) has awarded the local Al-Kooheji Electrical a contract to build nine 66kV substations across the kingdom, according to a source.

    The project is estimated to be worth $110m and is intended to support rising electricity demand from Bahrain’s domestic, commercial and industrial sectors.

    Four local contractors submitted commercial bids for the contract in January. The bidders were:

    • Nass Contracting ($28.4m)
    • Poullaides Construction Company ($31.7m)
    • Mohammed Jalal Contracting ($32.4m)
    • Al-Kooheji Electrical ($34m)

    The substations will be located at South Hidd Industrial, Mondelez, Alba Downstream Park, Muharraq North, Hamala West, Bani Jamra, Hoora, Maqabah East and West Riffa Club.

    The scope includes the construction of the nine substations and control rooms, as well as the installation of transformers, switchgear and feeders connecting the facilities to the grid.

    It also covers communication cabling, monitoring systems, safety and security systems, and associated civil and structural works.

    As MEED understands, the substations are scheduled to be commissioned in stages. Two are planned for 2026, followed by four in 2027 and the remaining three in 2028.

    Serbia’s Energoprojekt Entel was appointed as consultant for the project in April 2025. The consultant’s contract was valued at about $460,000.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17834380/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • CB&I’s newly acquired unit wins Abu Dhabi wells contract

    30 July 2026

    US-based Chicago Bridge & Iron (CB&I) has announced that its Asset Solutions business – acquired earlier this year from UK-headquartered contractor Petrofac – has won a hydrocarbon well services contract in Abu Dhabi.

    The contract was awarded by Cosmo E&P Albahriya, a wholly owned UAE-based subsidiary of Japan’s Cosmo Energy Holdings Company (Cosmo).

    Under the well engineering services contract, CB&I Asset Solutions will support drilling, engineering, planning and operational activities for offshore Block 4 in Abu Dhabi.

    Cosmo secured 100% exploration rights for offshore Block 4 – covering 4,865 square kilometres of Gulf waters northwest of Abu Dhabi city – in February 2021.

    The block was offered in Abu Dhabi’s second hydrocarbons block competitive bidding round, launched by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) in May 2019.

    “The award strengthens Asset Solutions’ position in the Middle East and solidifies new relationships with key regional operators. With shared goals of prioritising safe, stable and environmentally conscious production, CB&I’s UAE-based team will draw on its local and global experience of delivering innovative well engineering solutions,” the Texas-based CB&I said in a statement.

    ALSO READ: Abu Dhabi awards production licences for hydrocarbon blocks

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17834142/main4710.jpg
    Indrajit Sen