Meed | IMF downgrades Mena growth forecast

IMF downgrades Mena growth forecast

1 February 2024

The Washington-based IMF has revised down the expected real GDP growth figure for the Middle East and North Africa region for 2024 to 2.9%, down from the previous projection of 3.4% in its October economic outlook.

The downgraded growth forecast reflects, among other things, the deepening of the voluntary oil production cuts as part of a further Opec+ agreement in November, as well as the heightened instability in the region as a result of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea crisis.

The most recent agreement among the Opec+ members saw half a dozen countries agree to additional voluntary production cuts through to the end of Q1 2024 – in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024.

The regional oil producers that agreed to these additional cuts were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman, with the six countries collectively accounting for a 1.6 million barrel a day reduction in oil output, led by Riyadh, which alone cut 1 million b/d.

In the same update, the IMF revised down Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7%, down from a previous projection of 4.0% in its October economic outlook.

A week ago, the fund’s concluding statement to its Article IV consultation with Oman also saw it lower the growth forecast for that country to 1.4%, down from a previous forecast of 2.7% growth.

Both revisions reflect the country-level economic impact of these additional voluntary cuts, which will have an even greater impact on the fiscal side, cutting into government revenues and possibly spending.

Geopolitical impacts

The other major influence on the regional economy in the past three months has been the eruption of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea shipping crisis.

These twin events have had considerable impact on the most adjacent geographies, with the war in Gaza affecting economies across the Levant, as well as regional tourism, and the Red Sea crisis hitting trade.

In mid-December, a study commissioned by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that the economic cost of the war in Gaza on neighbouring Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon was set to exceed $10bn in 2023 alone and had the potential to push 230,000 more people into poverty.

It noted that the conflict was impacting consumption and trade and exacerbating the existing weak growth, high unemployment and fiscal pressure in the three countries.

Egypt has been acutely affected by both the impact on tourism and the fall in receipts from the passage of ships transiting through the Suez Canal – both major sources of revenue for the Egyptian government.

On 26 January, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that weekly transits through the Suez Canal had fallen by 42% over the past two months, and that container ship transits specifically had plummeted by 67% as compared to one year previously.

However, the largest impact has been on liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, which have stopped altogether since 16 January, according to Jan Hoffmann, trade logistics chief at UNCTAD.

Cross-sector impacts

Tourism has also been severely impacted since the commencement of hostilities in October, with the significant tourism markets of Egypt and Jordan being subject to mass flight and hotel cancellations. For Lebanon, the regional economic crisis has merely compounded the already dire domestic economy crisis.

In the IMF’s January briefing, research department division chief Daniel Leigh noted that for Egypt, “despite strong tourism performance overall in 2023, there’s been a slowdown since the start of the conflict in Gaza, in Israel, with hotel bookings clearly coming down.

“Now, on top of that, there’s the escalation and the Red Sea attacks, which may impact, and are impacting, foreign exchange inflows. That’s about $700m a month, a very important source of foreign currency for Egypt.”

Leigh said the uncertainty of the situation was already impacting investment prospects, creating an even more urgent need for additional financing to enable reforms and bring inflation down to restore growth.

The IMF is currently in discussions with Cairo over the provision of additional financing to the Egyptian government in the form of an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the fund alongside a reform programme.

More broadly, the IMF has assessed that the shockwaves from the war in Gaza have already caused current accounts across the region to deteriorate and given rise to $30bn in additional financing needs among Arab states outside of the Gulf, with further fallout expected if the conflict drags on.

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John Bambridge

Exclusive from Meed

Jedco maps next phase of Jeddah airport expansion
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22 September 2026
Oman tenders Thumrait Industrial City infrastructure
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Kuwait halves drilling contractor pool
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Abu Dhabi expects 45% emissions cut as electricity demand rises
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Jedco maps next phase of Jeddah airport expansion
22 September 2026

Jeddah Airports Company (Jedco) has outlined plans for the next phase of expansion at King Abdulaziz International airport (KAIA) in Jeddah.

The programme comprises six upcoming contractor packages spanning airside works, terminal upgrades and utilities as Jedco advances its long-term expansion plans.

The opportunities include airfield rehabilitation; a five-year construction framework covering multiple workstreams and facility types; a Terminal 3A (T3A) package; Terminal 1 (T1) optimisation; a fuel farm; and Concourse C works.

The packages cover terminal buildings and ancillary facilities, runways, taxiways and aprons, hangars, fuel systems, airside facilities, supporting infrastructure and utility networks.

Tendering and award activity will be staggered over the next two years. Airfield rehabilitation is targeted for Q3 2026. The construction framework is scheduled for Q4 2026 and will run for five years.

The T3A package is planned for Q1 2027 and will be delivered under an early contractor involvement contract. Local contractors are encouraged to bid as part of a joint venture with an experienced international partner.

T1 optimisation is planned for Q4 2027, the fuel farm for Q2 2027, and Concourse C – currently the latest of the six milestones – for Q2 2028.

The new packages add detail to Jedco’s wider expansion plans disclosed in 2023, when it was reported that the company would invest SR115bn ($31bn) to increase KAIA’s capacity to 114 million passengers a year, with an overall completion target of 2031.

Jedco has recently awarded several significant contracts linked to the airport’s upgrade programme.

In November 2024, a joint venture of local Algihaz Contracting and Turkey’s TAV was awarded a contract to rehabilitate the South Terminal to serve Umrah and Hajj pilgrims, with Singapore’s Surbana Jurong acting as consultant.

Earlier that year, Jedco also awarded France’s Alstom a contract to increase the capacity of the Innovia automated people mover at Terminal 1, including new cars and upgrades to signalling, communications and controls.

Surbana Jurong is expected to play a leading role in future KAIA expansion plans and is currently providing technical advisory and project management consultancy for more than 100 capital projects for Jedco, valued at over SR6bn ($1.6bn).

These upgrades are expected to boost KAIA’s annual capacity in line with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and National Aviation Strategy, enhancing the experience for domestic travellers and millions of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims.

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Yasir Iqbal

Contractor wins $105m Medina university hospital deal

22 September 2026

Riyadh-based construction firm Al-Mansouria General Contracting Company has been awarded a SR396m ($105.6m) contract to complete the remaining construction works on the Taiba University Hospital project in Medina.

The contract scope includes structural completion, remaining civil works, mechanical, electrical and plumbing installations, specialised clinical fit-outs and medical gas infrastructure to bring the long-stalled facility into operation.

Located on King Khalid Road along Medina’s Third Ring Road, the teaching hospital will have a capacity of 563 beds.

The contract duration is three years, with delivery targeted for late 2029.

The latest award follows a prolonged procurement cycle that began more than a decade ago as part of a public budget drive to expand Saudi Arabia’s higher education infrastructure.

The project’s first phase was initially signed in December 2011 with local firm Al-Muhaidib Contracting under a SR500m ($133.3m) contract.

Groundbreaking for the eight-storey complex took place in July 2013. The project covers a gross floor area of more than 200,000 square metres.

Progress stalled shortly thereafter due to reported structural delays and the reallocation of public capital budgets across the kingdom’s social infrastructure pipeline.

READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> AGENDA: Gulf nuclear revival takes shape

> MARKET FOCUS: Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive under fire

> INDUSTRY REPORT: Gas processing takes centre stage in Mena region

> INTERVIEW: Emsteel persists with business productivity and efficiency

> TUNNELS: The Gulf’s next construction boom is happening underground

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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Yasir Iqbal

Oman tenders Thumrait Industrial City infrastructure
22 September 2026

Oman’s Public Establishment for Industrial Estates (Madayn) has tendered an estimated RO15m ($39m) contract to develop infrastructure for Thumrait Industrial City.

The tender was issued on 14 September, with bids due by 12 November.

The scope covers site-wide utilities and services, including an internal road network, stormwater channels and culverts. It also includes installing sewerage and water networks, along with landscaping works.

In addition, Madayn intends to build plug-and-play industrial units and a facilities building.

The first phase of the development will cover about 120,000 square metres (sq m).

Thumrait Industrial City is located in Oman’s Dhofar Governorate and spans an area of more than four million sq m.

The project location is close to concession blocks, quarry sites and the Najd agricultural areas. It is positioned to attract industrial investments in sectors such as mining and minerals processing (including gypsum and cement), food production, and a range of light and general manufacturing activities.

In March, Madayn said it is preparing to invest more than RO245m ($637m) to upgrade and expand infrastructure across its industrial cities between 2026 and 2030, as part of efforts to attract new investment and advance economic diversification.

According to media reports, Madayn chief executive Dawood Bin Salim Al-Hadabi said the programme is part of an expanded, phased plan aligned with Oman Vision 2040 and the authority’s long-term Madayn 2040 strategy.

The objective is to deepen Oman’s industrial base and spread growth across the sultanate’s governorates.

Madayn said the pipeline comprises about 90 strategic projects to improve industrial-city infrastructure, extend serviced land and increase the overall ease of doing business for investors.

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Yasir Iqbal
Kuwait halves drilling contractor pool
22 September 2026
State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has reduced the number of approved contractors for onshore drilling and shallow-well maintenance from 51 to 24.

Firms that are no longer qualified include major contractors such as Italy’s Saipem, Oklahoma-based Helmerich & Payne and Houston-based Patterson-UTI Energy.

The latest list still includes a wide range of Kuwaiti, regional and international companies, according to the latest update on its electronic system, published on 21 September 2026.

The full list of contractors that are now qualified to participate in tenders is:
- Burgan Company for Well Drilling, Trading & Maintenance (Kuwait)
- Kuwait Drilling Company (Kuwait)
- Sun Drilling Kuwait (Kuwait)
- TDL Kuwait for Oil Rigs & Natural Gas Extraction Activities, Services and Facilities (Kuwait)
- United Precision Drilling (Kuwait)
- Abraj Energy Services (Oman)
- Adnoc Drilling Company (UAE)
- Arabian Drilling Company (Saudi Arabia)
- Anton Oilfield Services (China)
- China Oilfield Services (China)
- Egyptian Drilling Company (Egypt)
- CNPC Bohai Drilling Engineering Company (China)
- Great Wall Drilling Company (China)
- John Energy (India)
- Kerui Oilfield Service (China)
- KCA Deutag Drilling (Germany)
- Mohammed Al-Barwani Petroleum Services (Oman)
- Nabors Drilling International (US)
- National Drilling & Services Company (Oman)
- Sea & Land Drilling Contractors (Oman)
- Sinopec International Petroleum Service Corporation (China)
- Karamay Jianye Energy (China)
- Modern Drilling Company (Egypt)
- Grey Wolf Drilling International (US)
An earlier list, which was published on 11 February, included 51 qualified companies.

The reduction in qualified drilling contractors follows KOC’s notice on 27 April this year, informing existing qualified contractors that they would need to reapply.
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Wil Crisp

Abu Dhabi expects 45% emissions cut as electricity demand rises

21 September 2026

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Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) expects carbon emissions from power and water production to fall by more than 45% by 2035 as the UAE expands renewable energy and reverse osmosis (RO) desalination.

The state offtaker's latest long-term system planning forecasts emissions will decline from about 42 million tonnes in 2019 to approximately 23 million tonnes in 2035.

The reduction is expected despite annual electricity demand that is forecast to rise by about 70% in 2026-33.

Ewec said the expansion of renewable energy and the shift towards RO desalination will be the principal drivers of the reduction.

The company plans to increase Abu Dhabi's solar capacity to 14GW by 2030 and more than 35GW by 2035. This will be supported by up to 15GW of battery storage capacity.

According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, Ewec has over $16bn-worth of power and water projects in the execution stage as part of its long-term procurement programme to increase renewable energy and low-carbon water production capacity.

This includes a 5.2GW Abu Dhabi solar and battery energy storage system (bess) round-the-clock renewable energy project, as well as three 1.5GW solar photovoltaic independent power projects (IPP): Al-Ajban, Al-Khazna and Al-Zarraf.

It also comprises the 1GW Al-Dhafra open-cycle gas turbine power plant, the 2.5GW Taweelah C combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plant and a separate 400MW bess IPP.

As previously reported, it is expected that the developer's agreement for the 3.3GW Al-Nouf 1 CCGT IPP will be signed by the end of the year, while contractors are preparing to submit bids for a separate 2.6GW power plant project in Ajman.

The expansion of solar and battery storage is expected to reduce the system's reliance on gas-fired generation. However, gas-fired generation will continue to provide flexibility to support the system and balance intermittent renewable power output, according to Ewec.

The offtaker also expects RO desalination to account for more than 95% of total water production by 2035, with the procurement programme supporting the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy's Clean Energy Strategic Target 2035 for electricity production and the UAE Net Zero by 2050 Strategy.