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​IMF downgrades Mena growth forecast

1 February 2024

The Washington-based IMF has revised down the expected real GDP growth figure for the Middle East and North Africa region for 2024 to 2.9%, down from the previous projection of 3.4% in its October economic outlook.

The downgraded growth forecast reflects, among other things, the deepening of the voluntary oil production cuts as part of a further Opec+ agreement in November, as well as the heightened instability in the region as a result of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea crisis.

The most recent agreement among the Opec+ members saw half a dozen countries agree to additional voluntary production cuts through to the end of Q1 2024 – in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024.

The regional oil producers that agreed to these additional cuts were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman, with the six countries collectively accounting for a 1.6 million barrel a day reduction in oil output, led by Riyadh, which alone cut 1 million b/d.

In the same update, the IMF revised down Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7%, down from a previous projection of 4.0% in its October economic outlook.

A week ago, the fund’s concluding statement to its Article IV consultation with Oman also saw it lower the growth forecast for that country to 1.4%, down from a previous forecast of 2.7% growth.

Both revisions reflect the country-level economic impact of these additional voluntary cuts, which will have an even greater impact on the fiscal side, cutting into government revenues and possibly spending.

Geopolitical impacts

The other major influence on the regional economy in the past three months has been the eruption of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea shipping crisis.

These twin events have had considerable impact on the most adjacent geographies, with the war in Gaza affecting economies across the Levant, as well as regional tourism, and the Red Sea crisis hitting trade.

In mid-December, a study commissioned by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that the economic cost of the war in Gaza on neighbouring Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon was set to exceed $10bn in 2023 alone and had the potential to push 230,000 more people into poverty.

It noted that the conflict was impacting consumption and trade and exacerbating the existing weak growth, high unemployment and fiscal pressure in the three countries.

Egypt has been acutely affected by both the impact on tourism and the fall in receipts from the passage of ships transiting through the Suez Canal – both major sources of revenue for the Egyptian government.

On 26 January, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that weekly transits through the Suez Canal had fallen by 42% over the past two months, and that container ship transits specifically had plummeted by 67% as compared to one year previously.

However, the largest impact has been on liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, which have stopped altogether since 16 January, according to Jan Hoffmann, trade logistics chief at UNCTAD.

Cross-sector impacts

Tourism has also been severely impacted since the commencement of hostilities in October, with the significant tourism markets of Egypt and Jordan being subject to mass flight and hotel cancellations. For Lebanon, the regional economic crisis has merely compounded the already dire domestic economy crisis.

In the IMF’s January briefing, research department division chief Daniel Leigh noted that for Egypt, “despite strong tourism performance overall in 2023, there’s been a slowdown since the start of the conflict in Gaza, in Israel, with hotel bookings clearly coming down.

“Now, on top of that, there’s the escalation and the Red Sea attacks, which may impact, and are impacting, foreign exchange inflows. That’s about $700m a month, a very important source of foreign currency for Egypt.”

Leigh said the uncertainty of the situation was already impacting investment prospects, creating an even more urgent need for additional financing to enable reforms and bring inflation down to restore growth.

The IMF is currently in discussions with Cairo over the provision of additional financing to the Egyptian government in the form of an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the fund alongside a reform programme.

More broadly, the IMF has assessed that the shockwaves from the war in Gaza have already caused current accounts across the region to deteriorate and given rise to $30bn in additional financing needs among Arab states outside of the Gulf, with further fallout expected if the conflict drags on.

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John Bambridge

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  • Kuwait shows tentative signs of economic development

    7 August 2026

     

    Kuwait was one of the chief targets of Iranian drone and missile strikes during July, but against the backdrop of regional instability, the Kuwaiti authorities also managed to conclude a series of significant deals during the month. That suggests that, if the US and Iran can come to some sort of agreement to end their conflict, there is the potential for the Kuwaiti economy to diversify and expand in a way that it has, until now, struggled to do.

    The sense of nascent progress was bolstered in early August, when a survey of local businesses found that the non-oil sector had returned to growth at the start of the third quarter, having been in a slump since the start of the war. However, the risk of renewed fighting means most observers remain deeply cautious about whether the latest purchasing managers index (PMI) is just a blip, or the start of a longer trend.

    Debt deals

    The first big deal came on 22 July, when the government sold $6bn-worth of bonds. It was the second debt issuance by the authorities since a long-awaited public debt law was passed by decree last year. The latest package included debt with tenors of three, five and 10 years. In a sign of the turbulent geopolitical environment, the bonds were priced at 70-85 basis points over US Treasuries. Notably higher than the 40-50 basis point spread the government achieved in its bond sale late last year.

    The second significant development came just a few days later, with Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) unveiling a $16bn deal with international investors Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR for its crude oil pipeline network. In a similar structure to deals struck in the past by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and Saudi Aramco, KOC will lease the country’s domestic and export pipelines to a new joint venture it has set up with the trio of international partners. The Kuwaiti energy company will then lease back the pipelines on an exclusive basis, in return for a volume-based tariff.

    KOC will have a 51% stake in the joint venture and – in line with Kuwaiti law – will retain full ownership and operational control of the 320-kilometre network.

    It was the largest energy infrastructure deal ever agreed in Kuwait and, according to KOC, the largest foreign direct investment made in the country. The $7.85bn that the three international partners will invest upfront will be used to support KOC parent company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s wider capital expenditure plans.

    The fact that the country was able to secure the deal at a time when its only existing export route – through the Strait of Hormuz – has been effectively closed off is an important vote of confidence by investors in the country’s longer-term prospects. According to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, Kuwait’s crude export volumes had fallen from 1.2 million barrels a day before the year to zero in April.

    It was the largest energy infrastructure deal ever agreed in Kuwait and, according to KOC, the largest foreign direct investment made in the country

    UK-based Oxford Economics noted that the bond issue and the pipeline deal came at a time when Kuwait “faces elevated fiscal funding needs and remains one of the GCC’s most exposed oil exporters to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz given its limited alternative export infrastructure”.

    Blackstone said it also plans to open an office in Kuwait this year. There was a further show of investor interest in early August, when the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) reportedly agreed a $4.25bn, three-year loan from a group of 14 banks. The facility will be used for general corporate purposes, according to Bloomberg.

    In a further notable development, Kuwait’s Ministry of Public Works also handed a contract in late July to China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) to build the country’s largest wastewater treatment plant. The North Kabd plant will have a capacity of up to 1 million cubic metres a day (cm/d). Kuwaiti water desalination plants have been hit on several occasions by Iranian drones during this year’s war, causing fires and other damage.

    Policy reforms

    On a smaller level, some notable reforms have been rolled out to try to shape the direction of the non-oil economy too. In late July, the Ministry of Commerce & Industry stopped issuing any more sole-trader or freelance business licences, while a review is carried out into the sector and official oversight is tightened.

    The authorities went a step further on 2 August, when a decree was issued to stop businesses offering goods and services without the right sort of licence. Anyone found to be working without the required permit could now face a prison term of up to three years and a fine of up to KD100,000 ($323,000) – or a sum equivalent to the profits generated by the unlicensed activity, whichever is greater.

    Some steps have been taken to ease restrictions in other areas. In early August, a change to the visa system was announced that will allow some foreign nationals to convert a visit visa into a regular residency permit in return for a fee of KD150. The measure proved immediately popular, but many applicants had failed to read the small print and, according to local media reports, several hundred were rejected. The scheme is primarily aimed at those seeking to bring their wives or children to Kuwait, as well as humanitarian cases and others with exceptional circumstances.

    Economic recovery

    The wider economy is showing tentative signs of improvement. The latest PMI survey delivered an unexpectedly strong result, showing that the non-oil private sector returned to growth in July for the first time since the war began.

    S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the index, said the resumption of flights at Kuwait International airport had helped to support a rise in output and new orders – the first for five months. That in turn supported greater purchasing and hiring activity by local businesses and took the index up to 50.8 points – just above the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.

    Even so, S&P warned that market conditions remain “challenging” while local bank NBK Capital warned in early August that “it remains to be seen how much of this improvement [in the PMI] will be sustained … following the reescalation in US-Iran tensions in the past weeks”.

    If the Kuwaiti economy is to make the most of its potential, the country needs the war between Iran and the US to come to a definitive end.

    MEED’s September 2026 report on Kuwait also includes:

    > BANKING: Necessity is the mother of invention for Kuwaiti lenders
    > OIL & GAS: Regional war to have lasting impact on Kuwaiti oil sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction holds up despite regional strife

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  • Contractors submit bids for Adnoc Onshore field facilities project

    7 August 2026

     

    Contractors have submitted technical bids to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s onshore business (Adnoc Onshore) for a key project to build on-plot and off-plot facilities at the Rumaitha and Shanayel fields, part of the Northeast Bab cluster of oil fields in Abu Dhabi.

    The project aims to enhance and sustain oil production at the Rumaitha and Shanayel fields at a rate of 45,000 barrels a day (b/d). It forms part of Adnoc Onshore’s contribution to parent company Adnoc Group’s broader objective of increasing oil production capacity to 5 million b/d by 2027 through its Accelerated Integrated Programme 5 (AiP5). Adnoc Group currently has a production capacity of 4.85 million b/d.

    Contractors submitted technical bids for the project by the final deadline of 5 August set by Adnoc Onshore, according to sources.

    Adnoc Onshore issued the main tender for the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works package for the Rumaitha and Shanayel on-plot and off-plot facilities project on 19 June, MEED previously reported.

    Prior to that, Adnoc Onshore issued an expression of interest for the Rumaitha and Shanayel on-plot and off-plot facilities project in early December, with contractors submitting their responses later that month, MEED previously reported.

    The prequalification and ongoing tendering process is understood to result from Adnoc Onshore revising its strategy for executing EPC works on an earlier, larger project covering the Northeast Bab cluster, which comprises the Al-Nouf, Rumaitha and Shanayel fields.

    MEED reported in December that Adnoc Onshore cancelled an engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCm) phase it launched in 2024 for the Northeast Bab on-plot and off-plot facilities project, in favour of executing the scheme under a conventional EPC model.

    The operator awarded a contract to state-owned China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (CPECC) to carry out EPCm services for the Northeast Bab off-plot facilities package in October 2024. However, the contract was subsequently cancelled.

    Separately, Adnoc Onshore received bids during the second quarter of 2025 for the EPCm tender covering the Northeast Bab on-plot facilities package, but that procurement process was also later cancelled.

    Project scope of work

    The detailed scope of work on the Rumaitha and Shanayel on-plot and off-plot facilities project is as follows:

    On-plot facilities:

    • Oil train: One new oil train with slug catcher, two-stage separation, desalting, exchangers for crude heating and stabilisation, and all associated interconnections, utilities and civil/structural works, etc.
    • Produced water treatment (PWT): New produced water treatment package to enable 100% produced water reinjection (PWRI), including chemical dosing, tanks, pumps, all associated controls and blending with aquifer water, etc.
    • Water injection system: New water injection system, including surface water injection pumps, necessary connections and controls from produced water systems, headers, chemical dosing, power and controls, etc.
    • Gas handling and export:
      • Low-pressure gas compression system
      • Medium-pressure gas compression system
      • Gas dehydration and regeneration system
      • Export gas compression system
    • Utilities and offsites: Plant air and instrument air systems, nitrogen generation system, potable water system, vapour recovery system (liquid ejector package), fuel gas import and distribution, closed and open drain systems, hot oil heater, snuffing nitrogen package, enclosed ground flare systems (high-pressure and tank flares), etc.
    • Modifications in existing systems, including, but not limited to, installation of a slug catcher at phase-I, connectivity of gas systems, water systems, existing high-pressure compressors modifications, etc
    • Electrical, instrumentation and control, and safety: Electrical systems, instrumentation and control system (ICSS, F&G system, field instrumentation, HIPPS, etc.), substation and ITR room building, fire water system, etc.
    • Overhead line (220 kV): Installation and extension of overhead lines and 220 KV GIS compound or equivalent power distribution solutions to the central processing plant and other designated areas, as necessary.

    Off-plot facilities:

    • New gas-lifted oil producers and water injectors installation with necessary piping, controls, etc. and their connections to the new or existing clusters and pipeline networks
    • New clusters with facilities such as control panels, ITR, production and test manifolds, headers, chemical injection skids, multiphase flow meters, closed drain systems, HIPPS valves, WHCPs, pig traps, ICSS/telecom extensions, etc.
    • Modifications in existing clusters, including the addition or extension of manifolds, headers, additional pipelines with pig traps, ICSS/telecom extensions, chemical injection kids, etc.
    • Gathering and injection networks: Construction of new and modified oil gathering and water injection trunklines/laterals, pigging facilities (launchers/receivers), valve stations, block valves, corrosion protection and monitoring, and all associated equipment, etc.
    • Export gas pipelines and Adnoc Gas interface: Provision for export gas pipeline and facilities from Rumaitha central processing plant to new manifold station and from NMS to Adnoc Gas, including isolation/blowdown, etc.
    • Overhead line: Installation and extension of 33kV overhead lines to clusters, etc., as required.

    The tendering exercise for the Rumaitha and Shanayel on-plot and off-plot facilities project is taking place as Adnoc Onshore continues to make progress with EPC works on another, similar project to build off-plot facilities at the Southeast cluster of oil fields in Abu Dhabi, which is also integral to Adnoc Group’s AiP5 campaign.

    The Southeast cluster comprises the Asab, Mender, Qusahwira, Sahil and Shah fields and accounts for approximately a third of Adnoc Onshore’s oil production capacity.

    MEED previously reported that Adnoc Onshore had awarded EPC works on the Southeast off-plot facilities project to state-owned China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (CPECC), with the value of the contract estimated to be around $1.2bn.

    The overall scope of work on the Southeast off-plot facilities project includes tying in more than 150 wells across the area’s fields, upgrading remote and central degassing stations, laying more than 270 kilometres of flowlines, digitising wells for remote monitoring, and implementing artificial intelligence-driven telemetry technologies.

    MEED also recently reported that CPECC awarded subcontracts on the Southeast off-plot facilities project, in its capacity as the main EPC contractor.

    The off-plot facilities project is a component of the overall $2bn-$3bn Southeast AIP5 development, with the on-plot facilities project forming the other part of the programme.

    CPECC is also performing EPC works on the Southeast on-plot facilities project in a consortium with Greece-headquartered Archirodon. Adnoc Onshore awarded an estimated $1.5bn contract for that project to the consortium in December 2024, with EPC works scheduled for completion in 2027.

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  • Seven opens entertainment complex in Abha

    7 August 2026

    Saudi Entertainment Ventures (Seven) has opened its integrated recreational complex in Abha, the first of 14 entertainment destinations the company plans to develop across the kingdom.

    Local contractor Modern Building Leaders (MBL) built the complex under an estimated SR950m ($253m) contract awarded in December 2022. The scheme has a built-up area of more than 70,000 square metres and features go-karting, edutainment, bowling and indoor golf facilities.

    Seven is a wholly owned subsidiary of Qiddiya Investment Company. The Abha complex is the first Seven project to be completed, and supports the Public Investment Fund’s strategy to develop the entertainment and sports sector in line with Saudi Vision 2030.

    The destination is located within the Abha International airport cluster and connects the airport with the region’s cultural, tourism and entertainment sites. Entertainment experiences at the complex include Formula E Karting alongside Seven-developed concepts such as Kawaken, GolFi, Cyber Bowling and Scene Cinema.

    Consultants on the project include Dar Engineering and Lebanon’s Khatib & Alami, with the UK’s Mace International as project management consultant, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    Seven plans to invest SR50bn ($13.3bn) in developing 21 integrated entertainment destinations across 14 cities in the kingdom as Riyadh pursues its strategy to diversify away from hydrocarbons, create jobs and improve quality of life.

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    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

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  • Nine contractors submit bids for Oman flood protection dam

    7 August 2026

     

    Oman’s Ministry of Agricultural, Fisheries Wealth & Water Resources has received bids from nine contractors for the construction of the Wadi Rijma flood protection dam in Liwa, North Batinah Governorate.

    The Wadi Rijma dam project is one of four flood protection dams being planned in the sultanate to intercept floodwaters flowing from the northern Omani mountain range into the coastal plain.

    The bids include seven local contractors, one from Turkiye and one from China. The lowest offer of $50.6m was made by Strabag Oman.

    The full list of bidders includes: 

    • Strabag Oman ($50.6m)
    • Detonator Engineering ($53.0m)
    • AZ Engineers & Partners ($54.3m)
    • Eksen Project Construction Tourism & Trade (Turkiye, $58.4m)
    • Galfar Engineering & Contracting ($58.7m)
    • The Arab Contractors Oman ($59.3m)
    • Premier International Projects ($59.4m)
    • China International Water & Electric Corporation (China, $60.0m)
    • Khimji Ramdas Construction ($62.4m)

    MEED reported in March that the ministry had issued the tender for the project, which aims to protect flood-prone areas, reduce risks to life and property, and support groundwater recharge where possible.

    The proposed Wadi Rijma dam (R2A) is located between the mountain range to the south and west and the Gulf of Oman to the north and east. The area is characterised by wadis that cut deep valleys before spreading into multiple channels across alluvial fans.

    In June 2025, MEED reported that the Islamic Development Bank (ISDB) had extended a $632m loan to the ministry to fund the construction of four major flood protection dams in the sultanate.

    The four projects are:

    • Wadi Al-Khoud Flood Protection Dam (AK01) in Seeb
    • Wadi Rijma Flood Protection Dam (R2A) in Liwa
    • Wadi Majlas Flood Protection Dam in Qurayat
    • Wadi Ahin Flood Protection Dam in Saham North

    In June, the ministry invited contractors to bid for the construction of the Wadi Al-Khoudh flood protection dam in Wilayat Al-Seeb, Muscat Governorate.

    The contract is being tendered under ISDB’s Climate-Resilient Flood Protection Dams Project.

    The tender marks the revival of a project that has been on hold since 2019. The project was originally planned by the former Ministry of Regional Municipalities & Water Resources and was previously estimated to be worth about $159m.

    The bid submission deadline is 9 August.

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  • Syria signs 760MW solar power purchase agreements

    7 August 2026

    The Syrian Electricity Company (Sec) has signed power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Ahmed Al-Harfi Company for three solar power projects with a combined generation capacity of 760MW.

    The projects will be supported by battery energy storage systems (bess) with a total storage capacity of 1,077MWh and will be located in the Widyan Al-Rabie area of Rif Dimashq.

    The PPAs were signed in Damascus on 5 August under the supervision of Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy. According to the ministry, the agreements range from 20 to 25 years and cover the provision of electricity at tariffs starting from $0.03/kWh.

    Alongside the PPAs, Al-Harfi signed two technical cooperation agreements. 

    Saudi Electricity Project Development Company (PDC) will provide engineering and advisory services to support the management and implementation of the solar projects. Germany’s Siemens Energy will provide technical cooperation and expertise covering substations, power generation and bess.

    The latest agreements build on a memorandum of understanding signed in February between Syria’s former General Establishment for Electricity Transmission and Distribution and Al-Harfi to develop a 210MW solar project supported by an 827MWh bess.

    The projects are among the first major investments signed by Sec since it was established in April following a restructuring of Syria’s electricity sector. The new state-owned utility replaced the former Public Establishment for Generation and the Public Establishment for Transmission and Distribution of Electricity and assumed their assets, contracts and obligations.

    Separately, in a LinkedIn post published on 6 August, Acwa vice-chairman and managing director Raad Al-Saady said he had accompanied the Saudi Ministry of Energy on a visit to Damascus to sign agreements and discuss existing and potential energy projects in Syria.

    He said he represented Acwa and the infrastructure committee of the Saudi Syrian Business Council during the visit.

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