IMF downgrades Mena growth forecast
1 February 2024
The Washington-based IMF has revised down the expected real GDP growth figure for the Middle East and North Africa region for 2024 to 2.9%, down from the previous projection of 3.4% in its October economic outlook.
The downgraded growth forecast reflects, among other things, the deepening of the voluntary oil production cuts as part of a further Opec+ agreement in November, as well as the heightened instability in the region as a result of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea crisis.
The most recent agreement among the Opec+ members saw half a dozen countries agree to additional voluntary production cuts through to the end of Q1 2024 – in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024.
The regional oil producers that agreed to these additional cuts were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman, with the six countries collectively accounting for a 1.6 million barrel a day reduction in oil output, led by Riyadh, which alone cut 1 million b/d.
In the same update, the IMF revised down Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7%, down from a previous projection of 4.0% in its October economic outlook.
A week ago, the fund’s concluding statement to its Article IV consultation with Oman also saw it lower the growth forecast for that country to 1.4%, down from a previous forecast of 2.7% growth.
Both revisions reflect the country-level economic impact of these additional voluntary cuts, which will have an even greater impact on the fiscal side, cutting into government revenues and possibly spending.
Geopolitical impacts
The other major influence on the regional economy in the past three months has been the eruption of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea shipping crisis.
These twin events have had considerable impact on the most adjacent geographies, with the war in Gaza affecting economies across the Levant, as well as regional tourism, and the Red Sea crisis hitting trade.
In mid-December, a study commissioned by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that the economic cost of the war in Gaza on neighbouring Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon was set to exceed $10bn in 2023 alone and had the potential to push 230,000 more people into poverty.
It noted that the conflict was impacting consumption and trade and exacerbating the existing weak growth, high unemployment and fiscal pressure in the three countries.
Egypt has been acutely affected by both the impact on tourism and the fall in receipts from the passage of ships transiting through the Suez Canal – both major sources of revenue for the Egyptian government.
On 26 January, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that weekly transits through the Suez Canal had fallen by 42% over the past two months, and that container ship transits specifically had plummeted by 67% as compared to one year previously.
However, the largest impact has been on liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, which have stopped altogether since 16 January, according to Jan Hoffmann, trade logistics chief at UNCTAD.
Cross-sector impacts
Tourism has also been severely impacted since the commencement of hostilities in October, with the significant tourism markets of Egypt and Jordan being subject to mass flight and hotel cancellations. For Lebanon, the regional economic crisis has merely compounded the already dire domestic economy crisis.
In the IMF’s January briefing, research department division chief Daniel Leigh noted that for Egypt, “despite strong tourism performance overall in 2023, there’s been a slowdown since the start of the conflict in Gaza, in Israel, with hotel bookings clearly coming down.
“Now, on top of that, there’s the escalation and the Red Sea attacks, which may impact, and are impacting, foreign exchange inflows. That’s about $700m a month, a very important source of foreign currency for Egypt.”
Leigh said the uncertainty of the situation was already impacting investment prospects, creating an even more urgent need for additional financing to enable reforms and bring inflation down to restore growth.
The IMF is currently in discussions with Cairo over the provision of additional financing to the Egyptian government in the form of an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the fund alongside a reform programme.
More broadly, the IMF has assessed that the shockwaves from the war in Gaza have already caused current accounts across the region to deteriorate and given rise to $30bn in additional financing needs among Arab states outside of the Gulf, with further fallout expected if the conflict drags on.
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One strategy
On 31 July, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) announced that all four of its crude grades would move from IFAD pricing to a Platts Dubai prompt-month mechanism in November. ICE published its wind-down circular the same day.
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Force majeure battleground
The legal consequences of the Iran war are immediate and novel. The most contested issue is force majeure.
IFAD was established within ADGM, which applies English common law, and was regulated by the ADGM Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA). Under English law, there is no freestanding right to invoke force majeure, and the threshold is demanding. General disruption or increased costs do not suffice. The question is whether performance has become legally or physically impossible.
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This asymmetry is generating an uptick in advisory work as trading houses assess their positions across portfolios of contracts with different governing law provisions.
The sanctions picture adds further complexity: the successive reimposition of US sanctions following ceasefire collapses has affected the legality of positions that were fully compliant when established, raising questions for which English law provides no settled answer.
The legal consequences of the Iran war are immediate and novel
Legal infrastructure
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ADGM Courts, applying English common law, has developed a strong body of legal precedent over 11 years. And London-based ICE Clear Europe’s relationship with IFAD provides a model for how future exchange infrastructure in ADGM might access London clearing capability while remaining regulated in Abu Dhabi.
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US DFC approves $1.8bn financing for Jordan National Water Carrier24 September 2026
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Jordan’s cabinet approved a $97m financing agreement with the French Development Agency in July as the government continued to complete the project’s financing arrangements.
The cabinet also approved a package of facilities and exemptions for the National Water Carrier Project on 17 September to help finalise start-up procedures for the project in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone.
Jordan’s water needs
The Aqaba-Amman water desalination and conveyance project will desalinate 300 million cubic metres of seawater annually. It will also include a 450-kilometre pipeline and pumping systems reaching elevations of up to 1,100 metres.
The project is intended to help address Jordan’s severe water scarcity. As one of the world’s most water-stressed countries, Jordan consumes nearly 1 billion cubic metres of water a year.
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The Jordanian government is contributing $722m.
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The Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority and the Ministry of Water & Irrigation also launched a dedicated single-window platform in August to streamline licensing and permitting for the National Water Carrier project.
Once operational, the project is expected to remain under the PPP structure for 26 years before ownership transfers to the Jordanian government.
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Hitachi wins Al-Mashaer Al-Muqadasah metro revamp24 September 2026
Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) has signed a contract with Japan’s Hitachi Rail to revamp the Al-Mashaer Al-Muqadasah metro project in Mecca.
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The scope includes upgrades to improve reliability, operational performance and long-term maintainability.
SAR chief executive Bashar Al-Malik and Hitachi Rail’s Middle East and Africa signalling and rail solutions vice-president, Carlo Piacenza, signed the contract.
The rail line operates during the Hajj period and transports pilgrims between Mina, Muzdalifah and Arafat.
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Contractor wins 6GW data centre campus infrastructure24 September 2026

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Saudi Arabia’s AI company Humain, owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), tendered the contract in May, as MEED reported.
The scope of infrastructure work covers:
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Algeria officially launches major phosphate project24 September 2026
Algeria’s Minister of State and Minister of Hydrocarbons, Mohamed Arkab, has officially launched the construction of the country’s Integrated Phosphate Project (IPP) during a visit to the province of Annaba.
This major phosphate project spans the provinces of Annaba, Souk Ahras, Tebessa and Bir El-Ater.
The scope of the IPP includes:
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- An industrial complex at the Oued Keberit site: to include several production units, with the capacity to produce 2.4 million t/y of phosphate fertilisers as well as 570,000 t/y of nitrogen fertilisers
- Port facilities at the port of Annaba: for exporting surplus fertiliser production
- Utilities and auxiliary infrastructure
In a statement, the Ministry of Hydrocarbons said that Arkab’s official visit was taking place “within the framework of periodic field monitoring of the project’s implementation stages”.
It said: “The project stands as one of the most significant strategic and structural initiatives for the national economy; it aims to develop and exploit national mineral resources and to process and add value to phosphate locally, thereby boosting value-added output and increasing non-hydrocarbon exports.”
It added: “The integrated phosphate project is part of a comprehensive vision to valorise national mineral resources and develop associated downstream industries.
“This initiative aims to boost national production of fertilisers and high-value-added chemical products, support food security, create jobs, and contribute to diversifying the national economy and increasing non-hydrocarbon exports.”
On 12 August, Algeria’s national oil and gas company Sonatrach and the Algerian Chinese Fertilisers Company (ACFC) signed two engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the project.
The contracts were part of the Bled El-Hadba phosphate development project, which is expected to be worth $7bn.
The contracts were signed by Italy’s Saipem and China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) as part of the first phase of the integrated phosphate project.
Saipem’s contract was worth about €500m ($577m), according to a statement from the Italian company.
It focuses on constructing fertiliser processing and production facilities.
The contract with CHEC focuses on constructing port facilities at the Port of Annaba.
ACFC was created in March 2022 by Algerian companies Asmidal and Manadjim El-Djazair (Manal), which own 56% of the company, and Chinese groups Wuhuan and Tianan, which own the remaining 44% stake.
Manal and Asmidal are both subsidiaries of Sonatrach.
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