meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

​IMF downgrades Mena growth forecast

1 February 2024

The Washington-based IMF has revised down the expected real GDP growth figure for the Middle East and North Africa region for 2024 to 2.9%, down from the previous projection of 3.4% in its October economic outlook.

The downgraded growth forecast reflects, among other things, the deepening of the voluntary oil production cuts as part of a further Opec+ agreement in November, as well as the heightened instability in the region as a result of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea crisis.

The most recent agreement among the Opec+ members saw half a dozen countries agree to additional voluntary production cuts through to the end of Q1 2024 – in addition to the voluntary cuts announced in April 2023 and extended until the end of 2024.

The regional oil producers that agreed to these additional cuts were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman, with the six countries collectively accounting for a 1.6 million barrel a day reduction in oil output, led by Riyadh, which alone cut 1 million b/d.

In the same update, the IMF revised down Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7%, down from a previous projection of 4.0% in its October economic outlook.

A week ago, the fund’s concluding statement to its Article IV consultation with Oman also saw it lower the growth forecast for that country to 1.4%, down from a previous forecast of 2.7% growth.

Both revisions reflect the country-level economic impact of these additional voluntary cuts, which will have an even greater impact on the fiscal side, cutting into government revenues and possibly spending.

Geopolitical impacts

The other major influence on the regional economy in the past three months has been the eruption of the war in Gaza and the Red Sea shipping crisis.

These twin events have had considerable impact on the most adjacent geographies, with the war in Gaza affecting economies across the Levant, as well as regional tourism, and the Red Sea crisis hitting trade.

In mid-December, a study commissioned by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) estimated that the economic cost of the war in Gaza on neighbouring Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon was set to exceed $10bn in 2023 alone and had the potential to push 230,000 more people into poverty.

It noted that the conflict was impacting consumption and trade and exacerbating the existing weak growth, high unemployment and fiscal pressure in the three countries.

Egypt has been acutely affected by both the impact on tourism and the fall in receipts from the passage of ships transiting through the Suez Canal – both major sources of revenue for the Egyptian government.

On 26 January, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimated that weekly transits through the Suez Canal had fallen by 42% over the past two months, and that container ship transits specifically had plummeted by 67% as compared to one year previously.

However, the largest impact has been on liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, which have stopped altogether since 16 January, according to Jan Hoffmann, trade logistics chief at UNCTAD.

Cross-sector impacts

Tourism has also been severely impacted since the commencement of hostilities in October, with the significant tourism markets of Egypt and Jordan being subject to mass flight and hotel cancellations. For Lebanon, the regional economic crisis has merely compounded the already dire domestic economy crisis.

In the IMF’s January briefing, research department division chief Daniel Leigh noted that for Egypt, “despite strong tourism performance overall in 2023, there’s been a slowdown since the start of the conflict in Gaza, in Israel, with hotel bookings clearly coming down.

“Now, on top of that, there’s the escalation and the Red Sea attacks, which may impact, and are impacting, foreign exchange inflows. That’s about $700m a month, a very important source of foreign currency for Egypt.”

Leigh said the uncertainty of the situation was already impacting investment prospects, creating an even more urgent need for additional financing to enable reforms and bring inflation down to restore growth.

The IMF is currently in discussions with Cairo over the provision of additional financing to the Egyptian government in the form of an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the fund alongside a reform programme.

More broadly, the IMF has assessed that the shockwaves from the war in Gaza have already caused current accounts across the region to deteriorate and given rise to $30bn in additional financing needs among Arab states outside of the Gulf, with further fallout expected if the conflict drags on.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11480373/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Local firm wins contract for Kuwait power project

    19 November 2025

    Local firm Alghanim International has won a contract to provide engineering services at the Subiya power and water distillation plant.

    Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders approved the award following a request from the Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy.

    The contract, valued at $286m, covers engineering, supply, installation, operation and maintenance services to convert the 250MW second phase of the plant’s open-cycle gas turbines to combined-cycle gas turbines.

    The upgrade is intended to increase efficiency and provide additional generation capacity during periods of high demand.

    In July, MEED reported that Alghanim had submitted the lowest bid for the tender ahead of local firms Al-Daw Engineering General Trading & Contracting and Al-Zain United General Trading & Contracting.

    In 2024, US-based GE Vernova completed separate upgrades of four GE Vernova 9F.03 class gas turbines at the 2GW Sabiya combined-cycle power plant. Alghanim International acted as GE’s local engineering partner for that work.

    The Subiya power and water distillation plant is the largest power and water plant in Kuwait, with a power generation capacity of 7,046.7MW, accounting for 35% of the country’s installed capacity.

    It has a water desalination capacity of 100 million imperial gallons a day.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15116135/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • UKEF issues $3.5bn interest letter for Al-Maktoum airport

    19 November 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The UK’s export credit agency UK Export Finance (UKEF) has issued a $3.5bn expression of interest letter to support the participation of UK businesses in the $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport, which is also known as Dubai World Central (DWC).

    Chris Bryant, UK minister for trade, handed the letter to Khalifa Al-Zaffin, executive chairman of Dubai Aviation City Corporation and Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects (DAEP), and Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports.

    Letters of interest from UKEF, although not binding commitments, help ensure that UK exporters are given every opportunity to bid for contracts on a project. This is typically achieved by providing financial solutions in exchange for an agreed level of UK content used on the project.  

    Previous letter

    It is not the first time UKEF has issued a letter of interest for the expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport. In 2014, it issued a $2bn letter of interest. In a statement at the time, UKEF said five prime UK-based contractors were being supported, along with UK suppliers across the supply chain.

    The five prime contractors were Carillion, Kier, Balfour Beatty, Laing O’Rourke and Interserve. Of those five companies, Carillion entered liquidation in 2018 and Interserve entered administration in 2019. Balfour Beatty sold its shareholding in Dubai-based Dutco Balfour Beatty in 2017.

    Although some progress was made on the project after the UKEF offer in 2014, the scheme stalled and was revived again in April 2024, when Dubai approved new designs for the airport.

    Project progress

    Since then, the project client, DAEP, has been awarding and tendering contracts for the first construction packages. It has awarded a AED1bn ($272m) deal to UAE firm Binladin Contracting Group to construct the second runway at the airport.

    The enabling works for the terminal building are being undertaken by Abu Dhabi-based Tristar E&C.

    DAEP is also close to formally awarding a contract for the substructure works for the West Terminal and Concourse One, Concourse Two and Concourse Three.

    Tendering is also ongoing for an automated people-mover (APM) system. The system will run under the apron of the entire airfield and the airport’s terminals. It will consist of several tracks, taking passengers from the terminals to the concourses.

    Four underground stations will be built as part of the first phase. The overall plan includes 14 stations across the airport.

    The airport’s construction is planned to be undertaken in three phases. Construction works on the project’s first phase are expected to be completed by 2032.

    The airport will cover an area of 70 square kilometres (sq km) south of Dubai and will have five parallel runways, five terminal buildings and 400 aircraft gates.

    It will be five times the size of the existing Dubai International airport and will have the world’s largest passenger-handling capacity of 260 million passengers a year. For cargo, it will have the capacity to handle 12 million tonnes a year.

    Dubai has said the plan is for all operations from Dubai International airport to be transferred to Al-Maktoum International within 10 years.

    This aviation package also includes:

    > Middle East invests in giant airports
    > Broader region upgrades its airports
    > Global air travel shifts east

     

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15115788/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Riyadh gives Expo infrastructure bidders more time

    19 November 2025

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), which is tasked with delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, has extended the deadline for firms to submit commercial offers for the contract to undertake the initial infrastructure works at the site to 23 November.

    ERC had initially set deadlines of 26 October and 9 November for the submission of technical and commercial bids, respectively.

    The tender for the project’s initial infrastructure works was issued in September, as MEED reported.

    In October, MEED revealed that 16 firms had been invited to bid for the contract to undertake the initial infrastructure works at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site.

    The firms invited to bid include:

    • Shibh Al-Jazira Contracting (local)
    • Hassan Allam Construction (Egypt)
    • El-Seif Engineering Contracting (local)
    • Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting (local)
    • Kolin Construction (Turkiye)
    • Al-Yamama Trading & Contracting Company (local)
    • Saudi Pan Kingdom (local)
    • Unimac (local)
    • Mapa Insaat (Turkiye)
    • Yuksel Insaat (Turkiye)
    • IC Ictas / Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting (Turkiye/local)
    • Mota-Engil / Albawani (Portugal/local)
    • Almabani / FCC Construction (local/Spain)

    The overall infrastructure works – covering the construction of the main utilities and civil works at Expo 2030 Riyadh – will be split into three packages:

    • Lot 1 covers the main utilities corridor
    • Lot 2 includes the northern cluster of the nature corridor
    • Lot 3 comprises the southern cluster of the nature corridor

    MEED previously reported that ERC was expected to issue the tender for some of the infrastructure packages in September.

    In July, US-based engineering firm Bechtel Corporation announced it had won the project management consultancy deal for the delivery of the Expo 2030 Riyadh masterplan construction works.

    The masterplan encompasses an area of 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites designated for a World Expo event. Situated to the north of the Saudi capital, the site will be located near the future King Salman International airport, providing direct access to various landmarks within Riyadh.

    Countries participating in Expo 2030 Riyadh will have the option to construct permanent pavilions. This initiative is expected to create opportunities for business and investment growth in the region.

    The expo is forecast to attract more than 40 million visitors.

    The Public Investment Fund (PIF), Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched ERC in June as a wholly owned subsidiary to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    In a statement, the PIF said: “During its construction phases, Expo 2030 Riyadh and its legacy are projected to contribute around $64bn to Saudi GDP and generate approximately 171,000 direct and indirect jobs. Once operational, it is expected to contribute approximately $5.6bn to GDP.”

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15115697/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • NHC and Turkish firm sign $266m investment deal

    19 November 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s National Housing Company (NHC) has signed an investment agreement worth over SR1bn ($266m) with Turkiye’s Emlak Konut to develop new residential communities within the Mecca Gate project in Mecca.

    The agreement was signed on the sidelines of the Cityscape Global 2025 event in Riyadh.

    Emlak Konut will develop 1,000 residential villas spanning over 255,000 square metres (sq m).

    The latest agreement follows the NHC’s signing of deals worth over SR8.5bn ($2.2bn) for the development of two mixed-use and residential communities in Riyadh.

    The first agreement, worth over SR5.2bn ($1.4bn), was signed with local developer Retal Urban Development Company.

    The deal encompasses the development of 4,839 residential units in the Al-Fursan suburb of Riyadh.

    The other contract, worth over SR3.3bn ($880m), was signed with a joint venture of Egypt’s Hassan Allam Holding and local developer Tilal Real Estate for a mixed-use project in the Khozam district.

    The development will cover an area of over 228,000 sq m.

    It will be delivered through Grova Developments, the development arm of Hassan Allam Holding.

    In 2023, NHC and Saudi Arabia’s Housing Ministry signed investment agreements totalling more than SR24bn ($6.4bn) to launch the Al-Fursan residential project.

    Al‑Fursan is described as the largest scheme in terms of area and number of housing units that NHC is implementing in partnership with other real estate developers. 

    MEED reported in 2020 that Riyadh planned to oversee the development of more than 1 million homes by 2025 to meet growing demand in the kingdom.

    By 2030, the Saudi capital aims to more than double its population, from 7-8 million to 15-20 million, and become one of the 10 wealthiest cities in the world.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15115626/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egypt announces oil discovery in Western Desert

    19 November 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    A new gas discovery has been made in Egypt’s Western Desert region, according to a statement released by the Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

    The discovery was made by Khalda Petroleum Company, a joint venture of state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) and US-headquartered Apache Corporation.

    The field is expected to be brought online this week, according to the ministry.

    The reserves were discovered after drilling the exploratory well ‘Gomana-1’, the ministry said.

    It added that sensors confirmed the presence of gas reserves, and tests indicated that the well is expected to have a production rate of around 36 million standard cubic feet of gas a day.

    Further tests are ongoing, and the initial evaluation of the well’s reserves is currently being finalised.

    The ministry said that the discovery followed the introduction of new incentives designed to encourage additional gas investment within Khalda’s areas of operation.

    Earlier this month, Egypt started gas production from the West Burullus field in the Mediterranean Sea, after connecting the first wells to the national gas grid.

    The country is currently pushing to increase domestic gas production in order to meet domestic demand and reduce its import bill.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15112551/main.png
    Wil Crisp