meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

GCC banks navigate Credit Suisse fallout

31 March 2023

 

Saudi National Bank chairman Ammar al-Khudairy’s abrupt resignation on 27 March capped a turbulent few weeks for the world’s financial system. This period saw the kingdom’s champion bank dragged into the harsh glare of the global spotlight and serious questions asked about Gulf financial institutions’ readiness to serve as props in an increasingly jumpy financial order.

A short sentence uttered in an interview by a senior Saudi banker precipitated the collapse of a 160-year-old institution. Ruling out extending beyond its 10 per cent stake as it would entail a higher capital cost led to the fellow Swiss bank UBS buying the troubled lender at a steep discount.

Al-Khudairy took the rap for what was deemed an avoidable crisis, in which SNB took a hosing: it bought the Credit Suisse stock at CHF3.82 ($4.2) a share; UBS has paid just CHF0.76 ($0.83) a share.

The pain goes wider than SNB and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the other Gulf institution directly impacted by Credit Suisse’s troubles, given its 6.9 per cent stake in the lender.

The crisis poses serious questions about the role of wealthy Gulf institutions in a global system that is increasingly reliant on them, but has yet to stress test the relationship.

On the one hand, Gulf investors have been spooked about their exposure to venerable banking institutions that were once seen as copper-bottomed plays. Conversely, Western banks may now legitimately ask whether their Gulf counterparts are reliable partners in a crisis.

Volatile landscape

The backdrop is one of wider concern about the health of global financial markets. The Credit Suisse crisis was prefaced by US regulators shutting Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on 10 March, following mass withdrawals of customer deposits.

For now, analysts caution against panic. First, SNB’s exposure – and that of other prominent Gulf lenders – appears limited.

“The impact of SNB’s investment in Credit Suisse and the subsequent takeover by UBS on SNB are limited because the initial investment represents less than 2 per cent of SNB’s investment portfolio and 70-80 bps of the bank’s risk-adjusted capital ratio,” says Mohamed Damak, senior director, Financial Institutions Ratings, at ratings agency S&P.

As to problems in the Western markets, again, exposures are manageable. “On average, banks we rate in GCC had exposure to the US of 4.6 per cent of assets and 2.3 per cent of liabilities at year-end 2022,” says Damak.

“Generally, GCC banks would have limited lending activity in the US and most of their assets there would be in high-credit quality instruments or with the Federal Reserve. The exposure to Europe tends to be limited as well, except for banks that have a presence in some European countries like France or the UK. Most of the activity in these jurisdictions tends to be linked to home countries or generally made of high-quality exposures.”

This will not end SNB shareholder anxiety that the bank’s raison d’etre – supporting domestic projects related to Vision 2030 – had been sidelined in the pursuit of equity positions in global blue chips.

Qatari contagion

Similar questions will be asked in Qatar, where the QIA provided ballast for the Swiss bank’s balance sheet in 2021, when it issued $2bn in convertible notes. The Qatari wealth fund will be reviewing its bank holdings and stress-testing its wider portfolio.

Others will do the same. “Gulf sovereign wealth funds will probably review their asset allocations, regardless of this current crisis,” one Gulf-based economist tells MEED. “The reality is that their role is changing. They were, in the past, more opportunistic investors. Today they are becoming strategic vehicles.”

If Gulf funds like QIA will no longer serve as the global financial system’s white knights – as they proved in the 2008 financial crisis – this may prompt a reconfiguration of investment strategies.

There will be a steep learning curve, says one Gulf-based economist – on both sides.

Governance implications

In light of the growing financial strength of the Gulf institutions come new responsibilities and governance requirements, reflecting the dawning reality that Gulf institutions are growing into increasingly globally systemically significant investors or sources of capital.

“They need to act accordingly,” says the economist. “Not just from the global governance perspective, but also from the perspective of protecting their assets.”

Gulf institutions’ transformation into opportunistic investors was well-timed when liquidity was required at short notice.

“The money centres of the world turned to one of the biggest honey pots they could identify. And, of course, some of the old reservations were conveniently parked aside, at least for the time being,” says the economist.

The challenge for the Gulf institutions was the lack of deep experience or institutional frameworks needed to underpin those initial investments.

“Opportunities arose, these countries chose to take them and they got lucky because they helped stabilise the global financial system, and they helped protect the reputation of these institutions. And no major mistakes were made. But that initial opportunistic approach will no longer fly,” says the economist.

Gulf sector outlook

The Credit Suisse saga has also prompted much ruminating in Western media to the extent that Western institutions may cast a more wary eye in future over their Gulf counterparts.

But absent new funding sources, the GCC's appeal may prove irresistible to them. After all, says the economist, beggars can’t be choosers.

“What is the alternative to resorting to institutions such as the Gulf sovereign funds? They’re not going to go to China, that’s for sure. The only real alternative is to get some sort of a backstop from national central banks. And that is pretty much as close as you can get to a moral hazard,” he says.

The broader global picture is evolving. How Gulf institutions related to primarily Western institutions will also be influenced by the change in the GCC states’ foreign policy.

Gulf governments are increasingly cognisant of the need for a balanced, multi-directional foreign policy. And that is something they will also want to reflect in their wealth funds and banks’ investment behaviour.

The next year should provide an insight into how the post-Credit Suisse modus vivendi will play out.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10724320/main2803.jpg
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai selects contractor for Al-Maktoum airport people mover

    15 July 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects (DAEP) has selected a contractor to deliver the automated people-mover system as part of the first phase of the $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport.

    A team of Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation and Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro is the selected contractor.

    The automated people-mover system will serve as a critical facility for operations at Al-Maktoum International airport. The system will run under the apron of the entire airfield and the airport’s terminals. It will consist of multiple tracks, taking passengers from the terminals to the concourses.

    Four underground stations will be built as part of the first phase. The overall plan includes 14 stations across the airport.

    The firms submitted the bids for the project in July last year, as MEED exclusively reported.

    The contract is the latest in a series of awards signed by DAEP recently. DAEP has awarded contracts valued at about AED13bn, with construction works currently under way on several airport packages.

    These include enabling works, the second runway, and the initial structural foundations for passenger terminals and gates.

    Upcoming awards

    In June, DAEP said that it will award contracts worth over AED55bn ($15bn) by the end of this year for construction works at Al-Maktoum International airport.

    The projects slated for contract awards include the substructure works for the Western Passenger Terminal, the fourth aircraft concourse building and the baggage handling system, in addition to the superstructure works for the Western Passenger Terminal and the first, second and third aircraft concourses.

    The packages also encompass long-span structural frameworks for buildings covering about 1.5 million square metres (sq m), infrastructure works for the southern airfield area, and power generation and district cooling plants supporting the construction programme.

    The award of the facade and roofing packages is also planned for this year.

    Construction progress

    In May last year, MEED exclusively reported that DAEP had awarded a AED1bn ($272m) deal to UAE firm Binladin Contracting Group to construct the second runway at the airport.

    The enabling works on the terminal were awarded to Abu Dhabi-based Tristar E&C.

    Construction on the project’s first phase is expected to be completed by 2032.

    Construction on substructure works began in November last year, when DAEP formally selected a contractor to deliver the package.

    The government approved the updated designs and timelines for its largest construction project in April 2024.

    In a statement, the authorities said the plan is for all operations from Dubai International airport to be transferred to Al-Maktoum International within 10 years.

    According to an official description on DAEP’s website, the expanded airport’s West Terminal will be a seven-level, 800,000 sq m facility with an annual capacity of 45 million passengers.

    It will be the second of three terminals at Al-Maktoum International airport.

    In September 2024, MEED exclusively reported that a team comprising Austria’s Coop Himmelb(l)au and Lebanon’s Dar Al-Handasah had been confirmed as the lead masterplanning and design consultants on the expansion of Al-Maktoum airport.

    The airport’s construction is planned to be undertaken in three phases. The airport will cover an area of 70 square kilometres south of Dubai and will have five parallel runways and 430 aircraft gates.

    It will be five times the size of the existing Dubai International airport and will have the world’s largest passenger-handling capacity of 260 million passengers a year. For cargo, it will have the capacity to handle 12 million tonnes a year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17674721/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Libya plans to tender oil project by year-end

    15 July 2026

     

    Libya’s Waha Oil Company (WOC), a subsidiary of the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC), plans to tender a contract to develop the J6 North Gialo field before the end of the year, according to industry sources.

    NOC has signalled to several contractors that the invitation to bid is expected to be issued within the next five months, sources said.

    US-headquartered KBR is currently re-evaluating the front-end engineering and design (feed) for the project.

    In June, MEED reported that WOC had launched a review into the tender process for the J6 North Gialo oil field development project, and that this would include re-evaluating the feed work.

    The Waha concessions are held by a consortium comprising Libya’s NOC (59.16%), TotalEnergies (20.42%) and US-based ConocoPhillips (20.42%).

    They are operated by WOC, which is 100% owned by NOC.

    In March, MEED reported that South Korea’s Daewoo had withdrawn from the tender process for Libya’s J6 North Gialo oil field development project.

    Daewoo had formed a partnership with Egypt’s Petrojet to participate in the tender process.

    The only other company to submit a bid for the project was UK-based Petrofac, which filed for administration in October last year.

    In January, TotalEnergies signed an agreement extending the Waha concessions agreement up to 31 December 2050.

    This agreement set new fiscal terms, allowing an increase in production from these concessions, which at the time were producing about 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boe/d).

    In January, TotalEnergies said that the deal paved the way for “a new phase of investments, including the development of the North Gialo field, which is expected to add 100,000 boe/d of production”.

    The J6 North Gialo project is the first of three field development projects that WOC has prioritised.

    The other two are known as NC98 and Gialo 3.

    Together, the three projects are expected to double Waha’s production from about 300,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil to 600,000 b/d.

    The Waha concession covers 13 million acres.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17670218/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Adnoc Distribution signs deal to enter South Africa

    14 July 2026

    Adnoc Distribution, the fuel retailing business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group), has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of the share capital of UK energy major Shell’s downstream unit in South Africa.

    The proposed acquisition is estimated to have an enterprise value of approximately $1bn for 100% of the share capital of Shell Downstream South Africa (SDSA), part of Shell South Africa Holdings, prior to adjustment for net debt and working capital.

    The transaction is expected to close in 2027, subject to customary regulatory conditions, other conditions precedent and closing conditions, Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange-listed Adnoc Distribution said.

    Additionally, Adnoc Distribution intends to sell a 28% stake in SDSA to a local empowerment partner and employee stock option plan following completion of the acquisition.

    Furthermore, Adnoc Distribution will enter into a long-term brand licensing agreement upon completion of the acquisition, to retain the Shell brand for retail service stations and lubricants businesses in South Africa.

    BofA Securities acted as the sole financial advisor. A&O Shearman and ENS provided legal counsel to Adnoc Distribution on the transaction.

    SDSA represents Shell’s downstream business in South Africa, including a network of 580 company- and dealer-owned mobility and convenience sites, as well as lubricants, commercial fuels, aviation and marine businesses. The brand had fuel volumes of approximately 3.5 billion litres and operated 360 convenience stores as of 2025.

    The proposed acquisition will mark a step forward in Adnoc Distribution’s international expansion, as well as in its drive to grow its fuel retail presence in Africa.

    South Africa is the fourth country where Adnoc Distribution will operate and follows its acquisition of a 50% stake in TotalEnergies Marketing Egypt in 2023 and the 2018 launch of its retail fuel stations in Saudi Arabia.

    Established in 1973, Adnoc Distribution has 1,032 service stations – 568 in the UAE, 219 in Saudi Arabia and 245 in Egypt, as of 31 March this year.

    As a non-fuel retail leader in the UAE, it operates 386 Adnoc Oasis convenience stores, 37 vehicle inspection centres and other services such as car wash and lube change, and has 400 electric vehicle charging points installed under the E2Go brand in the UAE.

    The company is also a marketer and distributor of fuels to commercial, industrial and government customers throughout the UAE.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17664769/main4804.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Expo 2030 Riyadh construction gathers pace

    14 July 2026

     

    Construction activity at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site is accelerating, with Expo Riyadh 2030 Company (ERC) moving to award its first major vertical contracts and advancing infrastructure works across a programme that will eventually require between 50,000 and 70,000 workers at peak.

    Saudi Arabia’s first World Expo runs from 1 October 2030 to 31 March 2031. Riyadh was awarded the hosting rights in November 2023, winning the vote in the first round, and the event is projected to attract more than 40 million visits over its six months. Beyond the event itself, the project carries significant economic weight: ERC, wholly owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), expects the construction phase and legacy development to contribute around $64bn to Saudi GDP and generate approximately 171,000 direct and indirect jobs, with the live event contributing a further $5.6bn.

    The masterplan covers 6 million square metres to the north of Riyadh, adjacent to the future King Salman International airport. After the event closes, ERC plans to transform the site into a global village combining retail, food and beverage and an international residential community – meaning every asset being built now is being designed with its post-Expo purpose in mind.

    Infrastructure works under way

    The earliest works on site – bulk earthworks including cut, fill and levelling – have been completed by local contractor Binyah, with millions of cubic metres of material moved to bring the site to design level.

    The programme has now moved into utility infrastructure, which has been split into two packages. Nesma is constructing the primary utility networks – the main corridor running around the site carrying high-voltage power lines, water mains, sewerage and communications – while Al-Yamama is delivering the secondary networks that bring services into the central event area, with construction expected to commence this month.

    Power has been a priority. ERC has worked with the Saudi electricity sector since 2025 to develop the site’s demand profile, and an agreement for permanent supply has been signed. Design and procurement of the main substation and primary power infrastructure are under way, with a contract award expected within weeks and full permanent power – at a capacity of 400MW – targeted approximately 18 months ahead of the event.

    An initial 25MW supply to power site operations and support testing and commissioning is already installed and ready to be energised.

    On water, ERC is finalising an agreement with the Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC), the Saudi Water Authority and the National Water Company, with an announcement expected in Q3 and construction targeted to start in 2027.

    Transport and connectivity

    With more than 42 million visits anticipated over the six-month event, transport connectivity is treated as central to the project’s success. ERC is working with RCRC on a mobility plan that covers several modes. Two road enhancement projects around the airport and along King Salman Road are expected to be announced shortly, increasing capacity on the main arteries approaching the site.

    A dedicated Expo metro station on Riyadh Metro Line 4 – which connects the airport to the city centre – will be built within the site boundary, forming the first stop from the airport towards Riyadh, and providing a direct link for international arrivals.

    A park-and-ride programme using dedicated bus lanes will serve domestic visitors parking at locations across the city.

    A hotel within the fenced Expo site is also nearing contract, with a design agreement close to signature. ERC says the intention is to give guests staying on site “the full experience from early morning when the gates open until late at night when the gates close” – an offer it expects will prove particularly popular with international visitors.

    Pavilions and vertical assets

    The Expo's masterplan is organised around five districts, each echoing one of the event’s sub-themes under its overarching theme of Foresight for Tomorrow: planet, people, technology, collaboration and culture. ERC is responsible for delivering a signature pavilion in each district, plus an iconic structure in the Global Collaboration district and a convention centre intended to serve both the event and Riyadh’s long-term conference market.

    The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) Pavilion, one of the centrepieces of the event, is also under ERC’s delivery responsibility. Design work is progressing across all these assets with engineering firms taking concepts through to schematic and detailed design.

    For international participating countries, this edition of the Expo marks a significant departure from previous editions. Rather than grouping lower-income countries into shared halls, all participants will have their own national pavilion.

    “In this edition, we are following the ‘one nation, one pavilion’ model, whereby each country has its own pavilion, and we have a dedicated budget to help up to 100 eligible countries deliver those pavilions,” says Murad Al-Sayed, ERC’s chief delivery officer.

    Contracting strategy

    The contracting approach for vertical assets is being calibrated to the complexity of each building. Less complex assets will be procured on a design-and-build basis.

    For the most complex – the KSA Pavilion and the iconic structure – ERC is using a two-stage model, separating enabling works and substructure from the main contract. This allows construction to begin on site while the main package is finalised and brings contractors into the design process earlier.

    “We are adopting different contracting strategies depending on the asset – its size, complexity and anticipated construction duration,” Al-Sayed says.

    For the KSA Pavilion, enabling and substructure works are already in the market, with an award targeted in Q3, allowing construction to start before the main contract – for which nine tier-one contractors, local and international, have been invited to bid – is awarded towards the end of the year. Packages for the remaining signature pavilions are expected to follow later this year and into 2027.

    On commercial terms, ERC is favouring lump-sum contracts where design maturity allows, with provisional sum or remeasurement provisions used where elements remain in development. A final public realm package, covering site-wide finishing works, remains under design and is expected to be tendered in 2026, sequenced deliberately to be installed last and once only ahead of the event.

    Bidding appetite from the market has been strong. ERC says all tenders issued to date have attracted healthy numbers of qualified bids, reflecting a contracting market that has eased over the past 18 months as several gigaprojects elsewhere in the kingdom have reached completion or had their timelines revised.

    Programme and supply chain

    ERC is targeting completion of major construction by the end of 2029, leaving six to nine months for finishing, snagging and operational testing. To ease the build programme for international participants, ERC is making plots available up to 36 months before the event – around nine to 12 months longer than the industry norm – giving countries more schedule float to complete their pavilions.

    On the supply chain, ERC is leaning heavily on local manufacturers for current infrastructure work, covering piping, cabling, electrical equipment and bulk materials. As construction moves above ground and international participants begin work on their pavilions from 2027 onwards, ERC will make its database of prequalified local contractors, suppliers and consultants available to them through a dedicated one-stop shop – a registration exercise already under way and expected to remain open until the event itself.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17664502/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Masdar reaches financial close on world-first 24/7 solar project

    14 July 2026

    Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) has reached financial close on the world's first gigascale round-the-clock renewable energy project, securing a $5.1bn financing package from a consortium of 13 international and local banks.

    The project, being developed in Abu Dhabi with state offtaker Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec), represents a total capital investment of $6.1bn, with Masdar providing $1bn of equity. It integrates a 5.2GW solar photovoltaic (PV) plant with a 19 gigawatt-hour battery energy storage system, which Masdar says is the largest of its kind in the world.

    The 13 lenders providing the financing are Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, France's BNP Paribas, Bank of China, France's Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, UK-based HSBC, Germany's KfW Ipex-Bank, France's Natixis, Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, UK-based Standard Chartered Bank and France's Societe Generale.

    The independent power project is designed to deliver 1GW of baseload power around the clock, addressing the challenge of solar intermittency by pairing large-scale generation with battery storage. It is intended to serve large energy users requiring 24/7 clean electricity, including data centre operators and technology firms driving artificial intelligence deployment in the region.

    Ewec will act as offtaker under a long-term power purchase agreement, while private offtakers such as data centres will access electricity through back-to-back arrangements.

    India's Larsen & Toubro and Beijing-headquartered PowerChina are handling engineering, procurement and construction works, with PwC Middle East advising Ewec on financial structuring. China's CATL will supply the battery storage system, while Jinko Solar and JA Solar will each provide 2.6GW of PV modules.

    Masdar broke ground on the project in October 2025, and it is expected to be operational in 2027. The scheme will avoid 5.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions a year and provide enough clean energy to power nearly half a million homes.

    The developer has a diversified portfolio of more than 65GW and has set a target of reaching 100GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17664609/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman