meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

GCC banks navigate Credit Suisse fallout

31 March 2023

 

Saudi National Bank chairman Ammar al-Khudairy’s abrupt resignation on 27 March capped a turbulent few weeks for the world’s financial system. This period saw the kingdom’s champion bank dragged into the harsh glare of the global spotlight and serious questions asked about Gulf financial institutions’ readiness to serve as props in an increasingly jumpy financial order.

A short sentence uttered in an interview by a senior Saudi banker precipitated the collapse of a 160-year-old institution. Ruling out extending beyond its 10 per cent stake as it would entail a higher capital cost led to the fellow Swiss bank UBS buying the troubled lender at a steep discount.

Al-Khudairy took the rap for what was deemed an avoidable crisis, in which SNB took a hosing: it bought the Credit Suisse stock at CHF3.82 ($4.2) a share; UBS has paid just CHF0.76 ($0.83) a share.

The pain goes wider than SNB and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the other Gulf institution directly impacted by Credit Suisse’s troubles, given its 6.9 per cent stake in the lender.

The crisis poses serious questions about the role of wealthy Gulf institutions in a global system that is increasingly reliant on them, but has yet to stress test the relationship.

On the one hand, Gulf investors have been spooked about their exposure to venerable banking institutions that were once seen as copper-bottomed plays. Conversely, Western banks may now legitimately ask whether their Gulf counterparts are reliable partners in a crisis.

Volatile landscape

The backdrop is one of wider concern about the health of global financial markets. The Credit Suisse crisis was prefaced by US regulators shutting Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on 10 March, following mass withdrawals of customer deposits.

For now, analysts caution against panic. First, SNB’s exposure – and that of other prominent Gulf lenders – appears limited.

“The impact of SNB’s investment in Credit Suisse and the subsequent takeover by UBS on SNB are limited because the initial investment represents less than 2 per cent of SNB’s investment portfolio and 70-80 bps of the bank’s risk-adjusted capital ratio,” says Mohamed Damak, senior director, Financial Institutions Ratings, at ratings agency S&P.

As to problems in the Western markets, again, exposures are manageable. “On average, banks we rate in GCC had exposure to the US of 4.6 per cent of assets and 2.3 per cent of liabilities at year-end 2022,” says Damak.

“Generally, GCC banks would have limited lending activity in the US and most of their assets there would be in high-credit quality instruments or with the Federal Reserve. The exposure to Europe tends to be limited as well, except for banks that have a presence in some European countries like France or the UK. Most of the activity in these jurisdictions tends to be linked to home countries or generally made of high-quality exposures.”

This will not end SNB shareholder anxiety that the bank’s raison d’etre – supporting domestic projects related to Vision 2030 – had been sidelined in the pursuit of equity positions in global blue chips.

Qatari contagion

Similar questions will be asked in Qatar, where the QIA provided ballast for the Swiss bank’s balance sheet in 2021, when it issued $2bn in convertible notes. The Qatari wealth fund will be reviewing its bank holdings and stress-testing its wider portfolio.

Others will do the same. “Gulf sovereign wealth funds will probably review their asset allocations, regardless of this current crisis,” one Gulf-based economist tells MEED. “The reality is that their role is changing. They were, in the past, more opportunistic investors. Today they are becoming strategic vehicles.”

If Gulf funds like QIA will no longer serve as the global financial system’s white knights – as they proved in the 2008 financial crisis – this may prompt a reconfiguration of investment strategies.

There will be a steep learning curve, says one Gulf-based economist – on both sides.

Governance implications

In light of the growing financial strength of the Gulf institutions come new responsibilities and governance requirements, reflecting the dawning reality that Gulf institutions are growing into increasingly globally systemically significant investors or sources of capital.

“They need to act accordingly,” says the economist. “Not just from the global governance perspective, but also from the perspective of protecting their assets.”

Gulf institutions’ transformation into opportunistic investors was well-timed when liquidity was required at short notice.

“The money centres of the world turned to one of the biggest honey pots they could identify. And, of course, some of the old reservations were conveniently parked aside, at least for the time being,” says the economist.

The challenge for the Gulf institutions was the lack of deep experience or institutional frameworks needed to underpin those initial investments.

“Opportunities arose, these countries chose to take them and they got lucky because they helped stabilise the global financial system, and they helped protect the reputation of these institutions. And no major mistakes were made. But that initial opportunistic approach will no longer fly,” says the economist.

Gulf sector outlook

The Credit Suisse saga has also prompted much ruminating in Western media to the extent that Western institutions may cast a more wary eye in future over their Gulf counterparts.

But absent new funding sources, the GCC's appeal may prove irresistible to them. After all, says the economist, beggars can’t be choosers.

“What is the alternative to resorting to institutions such as the Gulf sovereign funds? They’re not going to go to China, that’s for sure. The only real alternative is to get some sort of a backstop from national central banks. And that is pretty much as close as you can get to a moral hazard,” he says.

The broader global picture is evolving. How Gulf institutions related to primarily Western institutions will also be influenced by the change in the GCC states’ foreign policy.

Gulf governments are increasingly cognisant of the need for a balanced, multi-directional foreign policy. And that is something they will also want to reflect in their wealth funds and banks’ investment behaviour.

The next year should provide an insight into how the post-Credit Suisse modus vivendi will play out.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10724320/main2803.jpg
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Oman begins procurement for truck road PPP

    2 July 2026

     

    Oman’s Ministry of Transport, Communications & Information Technology (MTCIT) has tendered a contract for the sultanate’s second public-private partnership (PPP) road scheme.

    The project spans 66 kilometres between Al-Buraimi and Al-Dhahirah governorates, starting at the Al-Khatm border crossing in Mahdah and ending at the Al-Fath area in Dhank.

    Under the scheme, the winning bidder will design, build, finance and transfer the project, which is specially designed for heavy vehicles.

    MTCIT issued the tender on 30 June. The deadline to purchase tender documents is 11 August, and the clarification period will run from 11 to 18 August.

    The bid submission deadline is 30 January 2027.

    In August 2023, Oman shortlisted five of the eight prequalified teams to compete for the Salalah-Thumrait truck road (STTR) project, the sultanate’s first PPP road project.

    The project failed to materialise beyond that point.

    In January, MEED reported that Oman is planning to establish a new commercial railway line to transport essential supplies between Salalah and Thumrait – an initiative understood to have preceded the STTR project. The railway is planned to be implemented as a PPP.

    The scheme comprises the construction of a railway line approximately 150-170km long. Two main stations are planned: Salalah Station, near the port and food storage facilities, and Thumrait Station, which will serve as a distribution hub for the surrounding areas.

    Trains are expected to be equipped with refrigerated and dry containers. The scheme aims to reduce transport costs between the two areas by 20%-30%, and Oman plans to pitch the project to major food companies to secure long-term transport contracts.

    The proposed project timeline is:

    • 2025: Conduct economic, technical and environmental feasibility studies
    • 2026: Launch the project for investment on a PPP basis
    • 2027-30: Construction of the railway line
    • 2031: Trial operations
    • 2032: Full commercial operations

    The project is touted as a key initiative under Oman Vision 2040, which aims to transform the sultanate into a global logistics hub.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17525698/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Acwa signs Mauritania gas IPP agreements

    2 July 2026

    Saudi Arabia's Acwa has announced it has signed the public-private partnership (PPP) and power purchase agreement (PPA) for the 230MW N'diago combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plant in Nouakchott, Mauritania.

    The agreements cover the development, financing, construction and operation of the project. They were signed in Nouakchott  in the presence of senior officials from the Mauritanian government and Acwa chairman Mohammad Abunayyan.

    The project is Mauritania's first large-scale gas-fired independent power project (IPP). It is also expected to be the country's first major gas-fired power plant procured through a PPP structure.

    The CCGT plant will provide 230MW of baseload generation capacity. It will use Mauritania's domestic natural gas resources to supply the national grid.

    Sepaarately, the Mauritanian Electricity Company (Somelec) has been advancing procurment for the construction of a 50MW solar power and battery enery storage systems (Bess) IPP project. In May, it issued an expression of interest (EoI) request.  

    Mauritania currently has several wind and solar power projects in the early study stages, according to regional project tracker MEED Projects.

    There are also plans to build a 1,200MW wind power plant near port Etienne in the bay province of Nouadhibou, for which, China Energy Engineering was appointed as the main contractor in 2024. 

    Meanwhile, Acwa's portfolio comprises 111 assets that are operational, under construction or in advanced development. These represent investments of SR468.9bn ($125bn).

    According to the company, it has a power generation capacity of 98GW, including 52.3GW of renewable energy, and manages 9.7 million cubic metres a day of desalinated water globally.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17525605/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi water sector awaits next catalyst

    2 July 2026

    Commentary
    Mark Dowdall
    Power & water editor

    Saudi Arabia’s water sector is entering a critical period as developers and investors wait for the next signal that the kingdom’s project pipeline is moving forward.

    Seven months have passed since preferred bidders were announced for the Arana and Hadda independent sewage treatment plant (ISTP) projects, which together will provide 350,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d) of treatment capacity. The projects had been expected to reach financial close in the second quarter of this year, but have yet to do so.

    In parallel, Saudi Arabia’s Vision Invest was selected as preferred bidder last December for the estimated $2bn Riyadh-Qassim independent water transmission pipeline (IWTP) project. It was reported at the time that the company had submitted a levelised tariff of SR2.627 ($0.70) a cubic metre, almost 20% below the next nearest bid. The project, which will comprise an 859-kilometre pipeline with transmission capacity of 685,000 cm/d, had been tipped to reach financial close this quarter.

    The uncertainty extends beyond projects awaiting financial close. The developer tender bid deadline was recently pushed back again for the $150m Riyadh East ISTP. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Water Transmission Company (WTCO) is understood to be reviewing the delivery model for the Jubail-Buraidah and Ras Mohaisen-Baha-Mecca independent water transmission system (IWTS) projects.

    According to sources familiar with the plans, WTCO is considering establishing a special purpose vehicle that would take equity stakes in both schemes. This could further delay procurement for a project that has already seen multiple deadline extensions. Sharakat’s next wave of independent water projects (IWPs) is also in the pipeline. The first of these is not expected to be tendered until early 2027.

    According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, Saudi Arabia’s water infrastructure sector recorded $3.14bn-worth of awards in the first half of this year, substantially lower than the $7.58bn recorded during the same period in 2025.

    While activity has slowed, the longer-term outlook remains unchanged. Population growth and industrial expansion continue to drive demand for desalination, wastewater treatment and water transmission infrastructure. In the meantime, key stakeholders are looking for the next clear signal that the project pipeline is regaining momentum.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17510220/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Contractor wins Jeddah road expansion deal in Riyadh

    2 July 2026

     

    The Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has awarded a contract for the Jeddah Road Development Project in Riyadh.

    Local construction firm Saudi Pan Kingdom (Sapac) won the contract.

    Spanning 29 kilometres, the scheme includes 14 bridges and five lanes.

    Designed to handle up to 353,000 vehicles a day, the road is expected to be completed by 2028, with mobilisation works already under way.

    The project forms part of the third package of the RCRC’s Riyadh Main and Ring Road Axes Development Programme, which was announced in January.

    The other schemes include:

    > Taif Road Development Project: The project stretches 15km and includes four bridges, each with four lanes. It also features two tunnels. It will have a capacity of up to 200,000 vehicles a day and will enhance connectivity between Riyadh’s southern and western districts and the city centre.

    > Thumamah Road Development Project: The eastern section of the project will span 8km and include three bridges and three tunnels, linking the northern and eastern parts of Riyadh. The project will have a daily capacity of up to 200,000 vehicles.

    > King Abdulaziz Road Development Project: The northern section of the project stretches 4.7km and will include four bridges, four lanes and one tunnel, with a capacity of up to 450,000 vehicles per day.

    > Othman Bin Affan Road Development Project: The northern section will span 4.3km and include seven bridges and other related upgrades to enhance traffic flow across northern Riyadh. The project will have a daily capacity of up to 500,000 vehicles.

    > Second phase of engineering enhancements for congested areas: This project targets eight locations across the city’s road network, where advanced engineering solutions will be applied to reduce congestion and improve intersection performance, increasing traffic capacity by 40% to 60%.

    The contract for the Jeddah Road Development Project is the latest of several high-profile deals awarded by the RCRC recently. In May, it awarded an estimated SR5bn ($1.3bn) contract to construct the Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road project in Riyadh.

    That contract went to a joint venture of Riyadh-based Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company (RTCC) and Turkiye’s IC Ictas.

    Stretching 12km, the project runs from Khurais Road to Al-Thumama Road and is a key component of the Second Eastern Ring Road scheme.

    Works include five interchanges: Prince Bandar, King Abdullah, Imam Abdullah, Dammam Road and Al-Thumama.

    In 2021, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud said the population of Riyadh would double to 15-20 million people by 2030. 

    He directed government entities to work closely with the RCRC to prepare the city’s development strategy.

    The RCRC’s major projects include Riyadh Metro, Riyadh Art, Sports Boulevard, King Salman International Park, Green Riyadh and several road development projects in the capital.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17523376/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai announces First Al-Khail road development project

    2 July 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai’s Executive Council has announced the First Al-Khail Street Development project, which will run parallel to Sheikh Zayed Road.

    The scheme comprises a 15-kilometre elevated carriageway with three lanes in each direction.

    According to a Dubai Media Office statement, “The project will provide access to areas including Al-Barsha, Al-Quoz, Business Bay and Meydan.”

    “It is expected to serve more than 2.6 million people and reduce travel time on Sheikh Zayed Road by 51% during peak hours,” the statement added.

    Designed to accommodate more than 9,000 vehicles an hour, construction is expected to begin in the third quarter of 2027, with completion targeted for 2030.

    The development forms part of a wider AED18bn ($5bn) programme covering initiatives related to culture, trade, infrastructure, Emiratisation, finance, investment, urban planning and the city’s population census.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17523587/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal