Dubai construction prepares for shift in 2024
10 November 2023

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Dubai’s construction market is preparing to make a pivotal shift next year as the emirate’s focus switches from real estate to public infrastructure projects such as Dubai Metro’s Blue Line, which is expected to be tendered and move into construction next year.
The Dubai government budget statement for 2024, released on 6 November, highlighted the anticipated shift.
In the statement, Abdulrahman Saleh al-Saleh, director general of the Department of Finance (DoF) for the Government of Dubai, said: “Despite the completion of many strategic projects, the activation of the public-private partnership law, and the development of project financing through long-term financing means the government has allocated 8 per cent of total expenditures to construction projects.
“This sends a strong signal to the private sector about Dubai’s determination to continue developing its infrastructure and delivering more strategic development projects.”
Overall spending for Dubai government entities in 2024 has been set at AED79.1bn ($21.6bn), which means AED6.328bn will be spent on construction. This is a 34 per cent increase on the spending planned for 2023, when 7 per cent of AED67.5bn was allocated to construction.
While there has been a significant increase in construction spending planned for 2024, the total still falls short of the budgeted spending set before the pandemic. In 2020, there was AED7.698bn of spending planned; in 2019, there was AED9.2bn.
Over the past two years, the Dubai government and its government-related entities (GREs), including property developers Emaar Properties and Nakheel, have focused on the real estate sector and, more specifically, residential projects funded by off-plan sales.
According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the Dubai government and its GREs have awarded $9.8bn of construction and transport contracts since the start of 2021, with $6.8bn or 69 per cent of those for the construction of buildings sold off-plan.
The resurgent property market with booming off-plan sales has enabled Dubai’s construction sector to have its best year in 2023 since 2017. It is on course to nearly double the total value of contract awards recorded in 2022.
The strength of the off-plan market was best demonstrated in late September, when hundreds of home buyers queued overnight to buy villas on Palm Jebel Ali, which had been on hold since 2009.
The strong market demand meant that by early November, there had been $17.8bn of construction and transport awards in the emirate. This put it on course to surpass the $18.1bn of awards in 2018, although still lower than 2017's $23.5bn of awards in the midst of an infrastructure spending spree ahead of Expo 2020.
Market correction
The prospect of more government infrastructure spending in 2024 comes as questions arise over whether Dubai’s real estate boom can be sustained.
While real estate prices keep going up, data has been released in the fourth quarter of this year that suggests growth may be slowing.
CBRE’s latest report says that in October 2023, the number of transactions in Dubai’s residential market totalled 6,407, a drop of 23.6 per cent compared to the previous year.
Most importantly for the construction sector, which relies on building new projects, the report also said that off-plan sales fell by 57.2 per cent over the same period. Secondary market transactions grew by 29.5 per cent.
Previous cycles have shown that a correction can either be fast or slow. In 2008, induced by the global financial crisis, there was a sudden price collapse. In 2016, following the late 2014 drop in oil prices, there was a steady decline in prices that lasted several years.
Although concerns may remain over the property market, residential real estate still accounts for over half of the construction and transport projects planned in Dubai.
According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, there are $74bn of projects at the pre-execution phase, which includes study, design, main contract bid and main contract prequalification. Of that $74bn total, 57 per cent are residential projects, while another 24 per cent are mixed-use real estate projects, typically including a significant amount of residential real estate.
The mix is unlikely to change unless the project pipeline changes and other major infrastructure projects are launched.
Of the pre-execution construction and transport projects that are not residential or mixed-use, only Dubai Metro’s Blue Line project is valued at over $500m, with an estimated cost of $2.5bn.
MEED’s November 2023 special report on the UAE includes:
> COMMENT: UAE eyes global leadership role
> POLITICS: Abu Dhabi networks on the global stage
> ECONOMY: UAE economy maintains robust growth
> BANKING: UAE banks enjoy the good times
> UPSTREAM: Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc spurs downstream gas expansions
> POWER: UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28
> WATER: UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> PROJECTS: Top 10 UAE clean energy projects
> CONSTRUCTION: UAE construction sector returns to form
> TRANSPORT: UAE aviation returns to growth
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The events since 28 February have clearly ruffled the surface calm, although the UAE Central Bank has stepped in to provide additional support, announcing on 19 March a resilience package mainly made up of precautionary support measures focused on liquidity and forbearance. This comes amid reports of a sharp decline in liquidity in the banking system.
The package allows lenders to access liquidity and to use capital buffers to support the economy. Banks enjoy enhanced access to reserve balances up to 30% of the cash reserve requirement.
“The central bank has a strong ability to support banks in the UAE, as it has AED1tn ($270bn) in external reserves. It means that it is able to provide support if needed, backed by these reserves,” says Lopatin.
According to Lopatin, overnight deposits at the Central Bank have declined slightly since the conflict escalated, but nothing too severe. “Judging by liquidity indicators at the sector level, it’s under pressure, but it’s still healthy,” he says.
Ongoing risks
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Corporate real estate accounted for 13% of gross loans at end-2025, down from 20% at end-2021, and this sector is likely to be the main source of new Stage 3 loans if the conflict is prolonged, warned Fitch in a rating note issued on 2nd April.
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Already, two Dubai property developers have seen their sukuk (Islamic debt securities) fall into distressed territory, as investor concerns about credit quality and refinancing risks start to register. In mid-March, Fitch Ratings placed Dubai real estate firm Binghatti on a negative rating watch, signalling a potential downgrade.
Too early to assess
Yet analysts caution against reading too much into this at this stage. “UAE banks’ total exposure to real estate is not so significant,” he says. “Currently, it’s less than 15%, the lowest level in 10-15 years. Any impact on banks will be gradual, but it will be under pressure, so banks will be under pressure too. Some smaller UAE banks entered this crisis with less cushioning and higher NPLs and therefore could be affected more.”
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“The longer the conflict lasts, refinancing becomes a point of stress,” says Lopatin.
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