meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

New shock treatment for Egypt’s economy

20 March 2024

Commentary
Edmund O'Sullivan
Former editor of MEED

June this year will mark the 50th anniversary of Law 43 of 1974, Egypt’s first attempt to set its economy on a path to private sector-led growth.

In March, the Washington-based IMF announced that an agreement had been reached for new lending to Cairo as part of a plan “to unleash private sector growth” and contain inflation and growing government indebtedness.

We have heard that hope expressed many times in the past half century. Egypt is often described as having the world’s oldest economic restructuring programme. Cynics say it is one of the least effective.

On 6 March, the central bank announced that the Egyptian pound would be allowed to float. The currency almost immediately fell 60%.

Economists have long advocated floating exchange rates to stimulate growth and correct balance of payments problems. It will raise the price of imports and encourage the Egyptian people to buy locally produced goods. Demand for Egyptian exports will be boosted.

But a floating exchange rate on its own will not cut inflation, which was more than 30% in the year ending February 2024. Money supply growth has to be squeezed, too. That is why the central bank’s key interest rate was increased by six percentage points to more than 27% the same day as the float began.

Investors are loving it. Egyptian shares closed at a record high on 10 March and are set to go higher. Those holding dollar-denominated government bonds, which have soared since the deal, will also be pleased.

Egyptian shares closed at a record high on 10 March and will go higher

But the overwhelming majority will not be. The dollar value of deposits in Egyptian pounds has been cut by more than half.

About 20% of Egypt’s food is imported and it will immediately become much more expensive. It will take time to switch to import-substitution industries and build factories that can take advantage of the pound’s international competitiveness.

There is going to be prolonged economic pain and political ramifications.

The IMF agreement says that the government must provide “adequate levels of social spending to protect vulnerable groups”. Those groups are unlikely to represent more than a small minority.

It will be 11 years this summer since the military coup that displaced Egypt’s first democratically elected government. But it is only now that the full implications are being felt.

Re-elected in a landslide victory in December, President El Sisi is imposing a programme that none of his predecessors dared contemplate on a country where political opposition has been quashed.

In 1977, the “bread riots” ended Egypt’s original experiment with shock economics. Perhaps this time it will work. 

Connect with Edmund O’Sullivan on Twitter

More from Edmund O’Sullivan:

> Syria’s long march in from the cold
> Lebanon’s pain captured in a call from Beirut
> Troubled end to 2023 bodes ill for stability
> The Holy Land and delusions it inspires
> Region to mark golden jubilee of 1973 war
> Gulf funds help reshape football
> When a war crime is denied
> Embracing the new Washington consensus
> Trump, Turkiye and the trouble ahead
> A century of errors for the Middle East

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11616337/main.gif
Edmund O’Sullivan

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Adnoc funnels billions into boosting gas processing

    15 October 2026

     

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group) is accelerating investment in gas processing and associated downstream infrastructure as demand in the UAE rises and the government prioritises lower-carbon energy growth.

    Rising gas consumption in the UAE is being driven by rapid population growth, greater household electrification, expanding industrial bases and demand from gas-intensive downstream segments such as petrochemicals, fertilisers and metals.

    Power generation and water desalination are also key sources of demand, while new industrial zones – as well as data centres supporting the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) use in the country – add further baseload requirements.

    Adnoc Gas, Adnoc Group’s gas processing subsidiary, is leading the UAE’s push to expand gas processing capacity and is executing a major capital expenditure (capex) programme worth $28bn over 2026-30.

    As part of that capex plan, Adnoc Gas achieved final investment decision (FID) on the second and third phases of its Rich Gas Development (RGD) programme earlier this year.

    Adnoc Gas awarded $8.2bn of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the second and third phases of the RGD programme. These relate to the construction of a new gas processing train at the Habshan complex and a natural gas liquids fractionation train at the Ruwais gas processing facility, respectively.

    Adnoc Gas officially announced the awards, saying it selected China-based Wison Engineering for RGD phase 2 under a $3.9bn contract, while Italy’s Tecnimont was awarded the $4.3bn phase 3 contract.

    Adnoc Gas has also reiterated its $5bn capex for the first phase of the RGD scheme, which is under construction. The company awarded $5bn of engineering, procurement and construction management contracts in three tranches for phase 1 of the RGD programme in June last year, marking the company’s largest-ever capital investment.

    Across all three phases, Adnoc Gas has committed a total of $13.2bn to the RGD programme.

    Bab Gas Cap development

    Looking ahead, Adnoc Gas is advancing towards FID on the estimated $8bn Bab gas cap development. The project will process up to 1.85 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of raw feed gas once Adnoc Group begins extracting reserves from four underdeveloped onshore reservoirs at the Bab field: Thammama A, B and H (projected to yield a combined 1.45 billion cf/d) and Thammama F (projected at 396 million cf/d).

    Because existing trains at the Habshan complex cannot accommodate these supplementary volumes, the project entails building a processing plant approximately 170 kilometres from Abu Dhabi city, alongside pipeline networks and ancillary units.

    Adnoc Gas has split the EPC scope into four packages, with technical bids due on 16 November:

    • Package 1: Main Bab gas cap processing plant
    • Package 2: Early civil works
    • Package 3: Pipeline network
    • Package 4: Non-process facilities and associated infrastructure

    Four contractor consortiums prequalified to bid for the main contracts:

    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Samsung E&A (South Korea)
    • Saipem (Italy) / NMDC Energy (UAE)
    • Technip Energies (France) / JGC Corporation (Japan) / Sinopec (China)
    • Tecnimont (Italy) / China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation 

    Gas pipeline investments

    Adnoc Group continues to invest in projects to enhance its gas transmission networks across the UAE, following its $3.5bn-plus capex on the Estidama programme earlier this decade to expand its sales-gas network in the country.

    Adnoc Gas recently awarded the main contract for a project to build a new pipeline that will supply gas from the Habshan scraper launcher station at its Habshan gas compression complex in Abu Dhabi to the Al-Nouf customer receiving station, for delivery to Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec).

    The proposed 56-inch, 127km pipeline will help the UAE’s state utility, Ewec, meet additional gas demand to power the second phase of an AI data centre in Abu Dhabi, as well as support the relocation of some of its key assets in the Mirfa area of the emirate.

    Adnoc Gas awarded the EPC contract for the project to India-based Kalpataru Projects International.

    Separately, Adnoc is moving ahead with plans to build an oil pipeline network that will transport crude from its main offshore oil processing islands in the Gulf to its onshore crude export terminal at Jebel Dhanna, Abu Dhabi.

    The planned network will source crude from Zirku Island and Das Island, where Adnoc gathers and treats oil produced at Abu Dhabi’s offshore fields, among other processing hubs, and transport it about 300km inland to the Jebel Dhanna terminal.

    The proposed pipelines will eventually connect to the West-East crude pipeline network currently being built from Jebel Dhanna to the emirate of Fujairah, which is expected to be commissioned in 2027.

    Boosting chemicals output

    Meanwhile, following major investments over the past three years to set up specialty chemical plants under the first phase of its chemical derivatives complex in Ruwais Industrial City, Taziz is firming up plans for the second phase of the complex.

    Taziz has partnered with local conglomerate Alpha Dhabi to undertake a joint feasibility and market study and, subject to FIDs and regulatory approvals, the second phase of the Taziz Industrial Chemicals Zone could produce up to 14 new chemicals, with total output capacity of about 2.2 million tonnes a year (t/y).

    The chemicals under study include styrene and polystyrene, acrylic acid and derivatives, polyols, methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), epoxy resins and linear alpha-olefins. These are widely used across construction, automotive, packaging, consumer goods, infrastructure and advanced manufacturing.

    Taziz, Germany-based chemicals producer Covestro and XRG – all wholly or majority-owned subsidiaries of Adnoc Group –  have launched a joint feasibility study to assess the development of a world-scale MDI plant in Ruwais Industrial City.

    The partners aim to establish a facility in the Taziz Industrial Chemicals Zone with a production capacity of 660,000 t/y of MDI. The study will evaluate the technical, commercial and economic feasibility of the proposed plant, with the aim of informing a future investment decision.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20622502/main.gif
    Indrajit Sen
  • KBR wins Aramco offshore engineering services contract

    15 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Aramco has awarded US-headquartered KBR a contract to provide engineering services to support facility upgrades across the Marjan offshore field in Gulf waters.

    Under the contract, awarded under Aramco’s existing general engineering services-plus (GES+) agreement with KBR, the US firm will provide engineering and project execution services to support key offshore processing, gas compression and power infrastructure facilities within the Marjan field.

    The project is expected to help maintain the Marjan field’s production capacity in line with recent field developments, KBR said in a statement.

    It is also expected to advance associated gas processing capabilities and strengthen the long-term performance of critical offshore assets through the integration of digital technologies, automation and power system enhancements, the Houston-based company added.

    KBR’s engineering services will specifically target upgrades to gas-oil separation plants (GOSPs) 2 and 3 at the Marjan offshore oil field development, a source told MEED.

    KBR is expected to execute the engineering work primarily from its offices in Houston and Al-Khobar.

    The Marjan offshore oil field, on Saudi Arabia’s eastern coast, was discovered in 1967 and began production in 1973.

    In 2019, Aramco committed an estimated $15bn in capital expenditure for a major infrastructure upgrade at the field under the Marjan increment programme. The project aims to increase the field’s oil production capacity by 300,000 barrels a day (b/d) of Arabian Medium crude oil to 800,000 b/d, process 2.5 billion cubic feet a day of gas, and produce an additional 360,000 b/d of ethane and natural gas liquids.

    The Marjan increment programme consists of about 20 engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) packages. The scope of work mainly involves a new GOSP and 24 offshore oil, gas and water-injection platforms.

    Since launching the Marjan increment programme, the Saudi energy giant has continued investing billions to maintain and upgrade infrastructure at the Marjan field.

    Aramco also plans to maintain steady capex in the future to sustain oil and gas production at the Marjan field development over the long term.

    ALSO READ: Consortium wins Safaniya field onshore facilities project

    MEED’s October 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Saudi projects hold steady
    > GOVERNMENT: Riyadh looks to reset its regional defence outlook
    > ECONOMY: Conflict bolsters case for Saudi economic diversification
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders readjust to lower lending and deposit climate
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco upstream spending gathers pace
    > DOWNSTREAM: Sabic steps up Saudi petchems investment
    > POWER: Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows
    > WATER: Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction defies the headwinds
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi infrastructure pushes forward amid conflict
    > DATABANK: Saudi data indicates project spending shift

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20621733/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Contractors win $317m Qatar road contracts

    15 October 2026

     

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has awarded three road development contracts worth more than QR1.1bn ($317m) to local contractors for works across Qatar.

    The contracts were formally awarded on 1 October, and each has a three-year construction period.

    Qatar Building Engineering Company secured a QR479m ($132m) contract for roads and infrastructure works in the Wadi Al-Banat North Zone 70 area.

    The contract covers constructing and upgrading local roads across several streets in the area. The scope also includes surface-water drainage, foul sewerage and treated sewage effluent networks, as well as connections to existing potable water, power and telecommunications infrastructure.

    The works include an attenuation tank near the Al-Khor Expressway and Link Road 7 to collect surface water and prevent infiltration into the Northern Aquifer.

    The contractor will also carry out groundwater mitigation works at the Al-Khor Expressway’s F1 interchange.

    Surface works include paved medians, including sections along Umm Al-Zubar Road near Lusail Palace, as well as landscaping.

    Qatar Trading & Contracting Group won the QR457m ($126m) contract to complete the remaining works on the C2021/44 roads and infrastructure scheme in Al-Sheehaniya (Package 1).

    The scheme covers site preparation, earthworks, and the construction of roads, pavements, road markings, signage, traffic-calming measures and street lighting.

    The scope also includes surface-water drainage and a complete pumping-station package encompassing civil, structural, mechanical, electrical, instrumentation, control and automation works.

    The contractor will also install a foul sewerage network with house connections across stages one and two, alongside a treated sewage effluent system, irrigation infrastructure, landscaping and landscape lighting.

    JAK Construction was awarded the QR217m ($60m) contract for the remaining works on the C/2021/038 roads and infrastructure project.

    The scope covers completing the remaining civil works, road network works, and key public-utility works across Umm Slal Ali, Umm Ebariya Village, South Umm Al-Amad and North Bu Fessela (Package 1).

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20617022/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Kuwait studies two oil export pipelines to bypass Hormuz

    15 October 2026

    State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation is considering developing two oil export pipelines that would bypass the Strait of Hormuz, according to a senior Kuwaiti oil official.

    The pipelines would transport crude oil through Saudi Arabia and the UAE, aiming to diversify Kuwait’s export routes.

    Mohammed Al-Abduljalil, the deputy chief executive for planning and innovation at the KPC subsidiary Kuwait Oil Company, told Asharq Bloomberg that KPC had agreed with its partners in Saudi Arabia and the UAE to conduct feasibility studies for two separate projects.

    The first project extends from Kuwait’s Ahmadi region through Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea coast. The second extends from the Ahmadi region to Fujairah in the UAE.

    The pipelines would build on existing infrastructure and, if the plans are approved, are expected to take around four or five years to complete, Al-Abduljalil said.

    He said the first project, currently under study, would use the route of the existing East-West pipeline, which connects the kingdom’s eastern oil-producing regions to its western coast.

    The second project would follow the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline route, enabling oil exports from the Sea of Oman coast, outside the Strait of Hormuz.

    Al-Abduljalil emphasised that both projects remain in a very early stage, noting that the agreement to conduct feasibility studies does not constitute a final investment decision to proceed with implementation.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20602978/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Gulf Spic submits lowest bid for Kuwait booster stations

    15 October 2026

     

    Kuwait-based Gulf Spic General Trading & Contracting Company has submitted the lowest bid for a contract to upgrade gas booster stations in the country.

    Gulf Spic’s bid was worth KD41.2m ($132m) and was one of four bids submitted for the contract.

    The project scope focuses on upgrading gas booster stations 140 and 150 (BS-140 and BS-150).

    The full list of bidders was:

    • Gulf Spic General Trading & Contracting Company, Kuwait – KD41.2m ($132m)
    • Combined Group Contracting Company (CGC), Kuwait  – KD45.5m ($146m)
    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco), Kuwait – KD50.7m ($163m)
    • Alghanim International General Trading & Contracting Company, Kuwait – KD65.5m ($210m)

    The project was first announced in 2014. The invitation to bid was issued in May this year, and bids were submitted ahead of the 11 October deadline.

    The scope of work on the project covers:

    • Upgrade of BS-140 and BS-150
    • Replacement of dehydration facilities
    • Laying of pipelines
    • Installation of safety system
    • Construction of associated facilities

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector is currently in the midst of a major crisis, as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have dramatically reduced exported crude oil volumes.

    The disruption is also creating significant challenges for oil and gas construction projects, which normally import equipment and materials through the Strait of Hormuz.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20602827/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp