meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

More pain for more gain for Egypt

7 February 2024

This package on Egypt also includes:

> UK and Egypt sign infrastructure agreement
> Familiar realities threaten Egypt’s energy hub ambitions
> Egypt nears fresh loan agreement with IMF
> ADQ and Adnec invest in Egypt hospitality group
> Egypt’s President El Sisi secures third term
> Egypt 2024 country profile and databank 

 

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi might have hoped for a honeymoon period after his resounding election win in December, but has enjoyed not a bit of it.

Egypt started 2024 with an economic crisis gaining in intensity, with events in the Red Sea – sharply reducing traffic through the Suez Canal – compounding other challenges, including a foreign currency (FX) shortage, a depreciating pound on the parallel market and rising inflation.

The president’s words on 24 January were ominous: “Egyptians need to live with economic pain,” he said, indicating that 2024 would be a tough year.

With Egypt’s economic crisis worsening by the week, the siren calls for a support package from the Washington-based IMF have grown ever louder. Expectations are high that a new and larger extended fund facility (EFF) is imminent, with IMF officials visiting Cairo in January to hammer out a deal.

Analysts have suggested the EFF – initially set at $3.9bn – could now be as high as $10bn-$12bn. This increase reflects the desperate situation that Egypt is in.

It is also a sign that Egypt still has a few cards left up its sleeve – not least amid the current crisis in the Middle East that has left it playing a vital role, however ineffectually, as the main conduit for aid deliveries into Gaza.

The Red Sea crisis and the desire to keep a dependable security partner in the region afloat are also factors.

“There is a bit more political willingness to support Egypt than a year ago,” says James Swanston, Middle East and North Africa economist at Capital Economics.

Economic precipice

The immediate backdrop to the renewed EFF negotiations is the sharp deterioration in the value of the pound after a bad 2023 that saw the official rate depreciate by 25% against the dollar.

By the end of January, the pound was trading at £E68-£E70 to the dollar, more than double the official rate of nearly £E30.9 to the dollar. Although the announcement of an imminent deal with the IMF in early February led the pound to rally to £E55 to the dollar on 4 February.

The fiscal headwinds are nevertheless increasingly fierce in 2024. With about 60% of its revenues absorbed by interest payments, according to ratings agency Moody’s, the government has very limited fiscal headroom to respond to such shocks. Cairo’s dilemma is that even if the EFF is raised to the upper limit of $12bn, it will only partially cover its financing needs.

Meanwhile, ratings agencies have been busy downgrading the sovereign. Fitch Ratings cut Egypt’s long-term foreign currency rating to B- from B, with a stable outlook, in November, reflecting its perception of heightened risks to Egypt’s external financing, macroeconomic stability and the trajectory of already-high government debt.

The slow progress on reforms, including the delay in the transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime, has damaged the credibility of exchange rate policy and exacerbated external financing constraints at a time of increasing external government debt repayments, said Fitch.

External financing stresses influenced the downgrading of Egypt, says Paul Gamble, director of the sovereign group at Fitch Ratings.

“There are FX challenges becoming apparent and also concerns over the availability of foreign currency. There are significant black-market transactions and FX shortages, signalling that downward pressures on the currency have increased, and the path to policy adjustment has become more complicated, at a time of high external debt repayments.”

One particular challenge facing Egypt is that Egyptian expatriate remission inflows from the Gulf states have declined, with many getting a better deal on the parallel market than through official channels.

Then there are the Suez Canal revenues, which government officials say fell by 44% in January compared to the same month in 2023.

“The revenue collections from the Suez Canal are a very stable source of income for Egypt, so the fact that they have been hit is a bit of a concern,” says Gamble.

“The impact on investor sentiment and the parallel market rates could further complicate the transition to a more flexible exchange rate. On the other hand, the IMF is talking about upsizing its assistance programme, and Egypt is getting more bilateral attention.”

Next steps forward

Assuming the EFF is finalised, attention will then switch to what comes next.

The strings attached to that package will be substantial, incurring both political and economic costs.

Fiscal policy will see more stringency, with sharp cutbacks on spending. Major projects may lose some support. Yet, while these projects are important for job prospects in Egypt, the IMF’s message is to keep fiscal policy tight for now. 

More stringency on the privatisation drive is also on the menu. Under the country’s divestment programme for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), speculators suggest that up to 150 SOEs may be sold off. However, political sensitivities over the military’s footprint in many of these assets mean delays are possible.

The most important thing in the near term is dealing with the pound, which was in virtual free fall at the end of January, forcing banks to install limits on FX transactions.

According to Capital Economics, if a staff-level agreement is announced, the central bank would move swiftly to devalue the pound by an initial 23%, to £E40 to the dollar, before allowing it to freely float.

“We feel [a rate of £E40-£E43 to the dollar] is a natural level, and it should not result in a fresh inflationary spike, but rather, inflation will fall at a slower rate,” says Swanston.

It was suggested that this could coincide with a sharp hike in interest rates of at least 300 basis points (bps), to 22.25%, and indeed, on 1 February, the central bank went ahead with this, raising the deposit rate to 21.25% and the lending rate to 22.25%.

That said, higher-for-longer prices and a 300bps interest hike will be painful for businesses to absorb, while a weaker pound will also make imports more expensive. 

Yet, for all the doom and gloom, there are some green shoots. Egypt’s GDP growth is stable, with Capital Economics forecasting GDP growth of 3.5% in 2024-25.  

Tourism – a valuable source of hard currency – is another recent bright spot, with arrivals to Egypt rising 9% in year-on-year terms during the first 19 days of 2024.

Egypt’s tourism numbers, spiking at approximately eight times higher than the global tourism rate of 4.5%, have been pivotal in stimulating overall growth, says property consultancy JLL. Between January and October 2023, Egypt registered about 13.9 million tourist arrivals, almost 36% higher compared to the same period last year.

“This is the medicine [the country] needs to take to lay the foundations for unlocking the economy’s potential in coming years,” says Swanston.

“They have a couple of years of slow economic growth, but if you have got an orthodox policymaking framework with a flexible exchange rate, and you bring the debt ratio down, you can start going about actually taking advantage of very good demographics of a young population.” 

There will be much pain in the interim. But the consensus is that staying the course will lead to better days.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11493190/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Regional chemicals spending set to soar

    29 August 2025

     

    With the energy transition gaining momentum and demand for transport fuels plateauing, it is no longer lucrative for state-owned hydrocarbons producers in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region to channel significant amounts of their crude oil towards refineries.

    This does not mean that regional energy producers have curtailed their spending on refinery expansions or greenfield projects, however. A total of $21.62bn was spent on Mena downstream oil projects in 2024, with capital expenditure (capex) at nearly $7bn so far this year, according to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    Mena energy producers have also ramped up their investment in expanding gas processing potential, as global demand for natural gas – especially from the power generation sector – rises exponentially. 

    The region invested a total of $25.67bn in gas processing projects in 2024, and in 2025, MEED Projects puts that figure at $9.3bn year-to-date.

    Meanwhile, the surge in petrochemicals projects in the Mena region over the years has also been significant. 

    The drive among regional players to increase petrochemicals output capacity is being facilitated by a rapid rise in chemicals demand from various industries and supply chains, as well as by the fact that converting oil and gas molecules into high-value chemicals is economically rewarding for hydrocarbons producers.

    Preparing for growth

    Global petrochemicals capacity is poised to grow significantly by 2030. Asia is set to dominate this, driven by a high demand for petrochemicals in the automotive, construction and electronics industries, according to UK analytics firm GlobalData.

    The Middle East is also set to undergo an increase in production capacity, with a total capacity of 122.1 million tonnes a year (t/y) projected in 2025-30. Capex on production plants is expected to reach $69bn in the coming years, according to a recent report by GlobalData.

    Steady spending

    An estimated $17.8bn was spent on engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for chemicals projects in 2024, with spending year-to-date of about $5.8bn, MEED Projects says.

    The region’s biggest chemicals project under EPC execution is the $11bn Amiral project in Saudi Arabia, which represents the expansion of Saudi Aramco Total Refining & Petrochemical Company (Satorp) in the petrochemicals sector. 

    Satorp, in which Saudi Aramco and France’s TotalEnergies hold 62.5% and 37.5% stakes, respectively, operates a
    refinery complex in Jubail that has the capacity to process 465,000 barrels a day (b/d) of Aramco’s Arabian Heavy crude oil grade to produce refined products such as diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, benzene, paraxylene, propylene, coke and sulphur.

    Integrated with the existing Satorp refinery in Jubail, the Amiral complex will house one of the largest mixed-load steam crackers in the Gulf, with the capacity to produce 1.65 million tonnes a year (t/y) of ethylene and other industrial gases.

    This expansion is expected to attract more than $4bn in additional investment in several industrial sectors, including carbon fibres, lubricants, drilling fluids, detergents, food additives, automotive parts and tyres.

    Another large-scale project under execution is the Al-Faw integrated refinery and petrochemicals project in Iraq. State-owned Southern Refineries Company brought on board China National Chemical Engineering Company in May 2024 to develop the estimated $8bn project.

    The Al-Faw project is being implemented in two stages. The first phase involves developing a refinery will have a capacity of 300,000 b/d and will produce oil derivatives for both domestic and international markets. The second phase relates to the construction of a petrochemicals complex with a capacity of 3 million t/y.

    EPC works are also progressing on the $6bn Ras Laffan petrochemicals complex in Qatar, which will have an ethane cracker that will be the largest in the Middle East and one of the largest in the world.

    The project is being developed by a joint venture (JV) of QatarEnergy and US-based Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem). QatarEnergy owns a majority 70% stake in the JV. CPChem, which is 50:50 owned by US firms Chevron and Phillips 66, holds the remaining 30%.

    The Ras Laffan petrochemicals complex is expected to begin production in 2026. It consists of an ethane cracker with a capacity of 2.1 million t/y of ethylene. This will raise Qatar’s ethylene production potential by nearly 70%.

    The complex includes two polyethylene trains with a combined output of 1.68 million t/y of high-density polyethylene polymer products, raising Qatar’s overall petrochemicals production capacity by 82%, to almost 14 million t/y.

    A JV of South Korean contractor Samsung Engineering and CTCI of Taiwan was awarded the EPC contract for the ethylene plant, which is understood to be valued at $3.5bn. The EPC contract for the polyethylene plant was awarded to Italian contractor Maire Tecnimont, which announced that the value of its contract was $1.3bn.

    Chemicals uptick

    While the downstream hydrocarbons sector in the Mena region has so far seen significant capex allocated to refinery modification and expansion projects, and robust spending on gas processing projects, chemicals schemes are set to dominate spending going forward.

    Data from MEED Projects suggests that the value of planned chemicals projects in the Mena region is four times greater than the combined value of downstream oil and gas projects.

    Saudi Arabia’s liquids-to-chemicals programme, which aims to attain a conversion rate of 4 million b/d of Saudi Aramco’s crude oil production into high-value chemicals, accounts for the majority of planned chemicals projects in the region.

    Aramco has divided its liquids-to-chemicals programme in Saudi Arabia into four main projects. It has made progress this year by signing JV investment agreements with international partners for these projects:

    • Conversion of the Saudi Aramco Jubail Refinery Company (Sasref) complex in Jubail into an integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex through the addition of a mixed-feed cracker. The project also involves building an ethane cracker that will draw feedstock from the Sasref refinery. Front-end engineering and design on the project is under way and is being performed by Samsung E&A.
       
    • Conversion of the Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Company (Yasref) complex in Yanbu into an integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex through the addition of a mixed-feed cracker. China’s Sinopec is a JV partner in the project.
       
    • Conversion of the Saudi Aramco Mobil Refinery Company (Samref) complex in Yanbu into an integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex through the addition of a mixed-feed cracker. US oil and gas producer ExxonMobil has signed a memorandum of understanding with Aramco to potentially invest in the project.
       
    • Building a crude oil-to-chemicals complex in Ras Al-Khair in the kingdom’s Eastern Province. Progress on this project remains slow.

    Separately, Aramco subsidiary Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) is in advanced negotiations with bidders for a project that involves building an integrated blue ammonia and urea manufacturing complex at the existing facility of its affiliate, Sabic Agri-Nutrients Company, in Jubail.

    The $2bn-$3bn project, which is known as the low-carbon hydrogen San VI complex, is part of Sabic’s Horizon 1 low-carbon hydrogen programme that will be developed at Sabic Agri-Nutrients’ facility in Jubail Industrial City.

    The planned San VI complex will have an output capacity of 1.2 million metric t/y of blue ammonia and 1.1 million metric t/y of urea and specialised agri-nutrients.

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14568180/main.gif
    Indrajit Sen
  • Kuwait’s political hiatus brings opportunity

    29 August 2025

    Commentary
    John Bambridge
    Analysis editor

    After Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah took the unusual step of suspending Kuwait’s parliament in May 2024, the country anticipated a rush of reforms and the unblocking of the project pipeline.

    In March 2025, the government delivered on the most significant part of that, passing the long-awaited new public debt law, allowing $65bn in sovereign and Islamic bonds to be issued over the next 50 years. In June, Kuwait began moving ahead with plans to issue bonds worth an estimated KD2bn ($6.6bn) to cover its projected financing needs for the 2025-26 fiscal year.

    With the ability to now take on debt as needed, the country’s budget can be decoupled to a degree from the volatility of global oil market cycles. Also significant is the reported consideration of the setup of a KD50bn ($163bn) domestic investment fund that could become a transformative engine for Kuwait’s future.

    March also heralded a new mortgage law that has ended prior restrictions, bringing property loans more in line with international norms in a way that will open up new avenues of growth for the banking and real estate sectors.

    In the projects market, however, while the value of planned projects has swollen, actual contract awards increased only modestly in 2024 and are on track for a similar performance in 2025. The more optimistic industry analysts have chalked this up as a temporary situation that will be corrected when the projects now in pre-execution push through to the execution phase. More cynical observers have suggested, however, that there may be more wrong with Kuwait’s project sector than just budgeting.

    The Al-Zour North independent power and water plant phase 2 & 3 is a case in point, having travelled through several planning iterations from the point of its launch in 2006 up until its final award in August. This comes despite Kuwait’s rapid approach to the limits of its own power generation capacity – limits it then exceeded in April 2025, when soaring temperatures caused demand for electricity to outstrip supply, bringing power cuts.

    Despite all this, the award of the long-awaited Al-Zour North scheme is a hopeful sign that Kuwait is on the move once again – as it will need to be. With an enfeebled private sector, atrophied contracting industry and mounting public wage bill, the policy needs of the day are great in Kuwait.

    While the emir’s consolidation of power has given the government a rare opportunity to act decisively – with the political hiatus already delivering key outcomes that years of parliamentary debate could not – the real test will be whether a credible economic transformation can be set in motion while Kuwait still has the time to act.

     

    MEED’s September 2025 report on Kuwait includes:

    > GOVERNMENT: Kuwait looks to capitalise on consolidation of power
    > ECONOMY: Kuwait aims for investment to revive economy
    > BANKING: Change is coming for Kuwait’s banks
    > OIL & GAS: Kuwaiti oil activity rising after parliament suspension
    > POWER & WATER: Signs of project progress for Kuwait's power and water sector
    > CONSTRUCTION: Momentum builds in Kuwait construction
    > DATABANK: Kuwait’s growth picture improves

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14523293/main.gif
    John Bambridge
  • GlobalData forecasts Egypt construction growth

    29 August 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Egypt’s construction industry is poised for significant growth, with GlobalData projecting a real-term increase of 4.7% in 2025.

    This growth is expected to be fuelled by a surge in net foreign direct investment (FDI) and substantial government spending on renewable energy and industrial construction projects. According to the Central Bank of Egypt, net FDI rose by 9.3% year-on-year in the first half of the 2024/25 financial year, increasing from E£278.6bn ($5.5bn) in July-December 2023 to E£304.5bn during the same period in 2024.

    The influx of foreign capital is anticipated to strengthen the construction sector, which is further supported by the government’s 2025/26 budget, approved in June 2025. The budget allocates total expenditure of E£4.6tn, marking an 18% increase over the previous fiscal year. Key allocations include E£100bn for the electricity and renewable energy sector, E£77bn for water and wastewater projects, and E£5.2bn for railways.

    Looking ahead, the construction industry’s output is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.4% between 2026 and 2029. This growth will be driven by investments in housing, renewable energy and transport infrastructure, alongside the government’s target of developing 10GW of renewable energy capacity by 2028.

    Sector-specific forecasts point to a promising outlook across various construction segments.

    The commercial construction sector is expected to grow by 6% in 2025 and at an average annual rate of 6.6% between 2026 and 2029, supported by a rebound in tourism and hospitality.

    The industrial construction sector is anticipated to expand by 12.2% in 2025, with robust average annual growth of 9.1% through 2029, driven by investments in manufacturing and rising external demand.

    Infrastructure construction is projected to grow by 3.6% in 2025 and at an average annual rate of 6.9% from 2026 to 2029, underpinned by investment in roads, rail and ports – including the construction of 1,160 bridges by 2030.

    The energy and utilities construction sector is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025, with an average annual rate of 7.8% between 2026 and 2029, driven by investments in renewable energy and water infrastructure.

    Institutional construction is forecast to grow by 4.2% in 2025 and at an average annual rate of 6.6% from 2026 to 2029, supported by public investment in education and healthcare.

    Finally, the residential construction sector is projected to grow by 4.7% in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 7.7% from 2026 to 2029, addressing the country’s growing housing deficit.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14567479/main.gif
  • UAE firm begins Yemen 120MW solar expansion

    29 August 2025

    Yemen’s Aden solar photovoltaic (PV) plant will double its capacity to 240MW following the groundbreaking of its second phase – a 120MW expansion developed by UAE-based Global South Utilities (GSU), in partnership with Yemen’s Ministry of Electricity & Energy.

    Located in Bir Ahmed, the plant began operations last year with a capacity of 120MW in its first phase. 

    GSU said the project will reduce Yemen’s reliance on imported fuel and improve air quality, with the expansion set to include more than 194,000 solar panels.

    Phase 2 is expected to begin commercial operations in 2026.

    Once operational, it will generate around 247,462 megawatt-hours annually, enough to supply electricity to 687,000 households and cut an estimated 142,345 tonnes of carbon dioxide each year.

    Combined with phase 1, the facility will reduce almost 285,000 tonnes of carbon emissions annually. This is equivalent to removing more than 85,000 cars from the road.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14566785/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Feed progresses on Libya oil field project

    29 August 2025

    US oilfield services provider Haliburton is continuing to work on the front-end engineering and design (feed) for Libya-based Waha Oil Company’s project to rehabilitate the country’s Al-Dhara oil field, according to sources.

    The project is estimated to be worth $1bn, and is expected to considerably increase oil production from the field.

    The Al-Dhara field is currently producing 24,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil, sources said.

    One source said: “Locally run projects have managed to increase production from zero to 24,000 b/d and that’s a massive achievement – but the project that Haliburton is working on is likely to be much more significant.”

    Sources expect that the Haliburton project could boost the production of the Al-Dhara field and neighbouring PL6 field to 130,000 b/d.

    The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) scope of work on the project is understood to include:

    • Drilling of wells
    • Construction of platforms
    • Laying of pipelines
    • Construction of a condensate refinery
    • Installation of storage tanks
    • Installation of early production facilities
    • Installation of gas treatment units
    • Construction of a degassing station
    • Construction of other associated facilities

    The Al-Dhara field is generating revenues of around $450m a month, sources said, and this money has been earmarked to fund the rehabilitation of the field and phased work to increase production.

    The oil field in central Libya has suffered from years of poor maintenance and was sabotaged by Islamic State militants in 2015.

    Waha Oil Company announced in August 2022 that it had restarted test operations at the Al-Dhara oil field after a seven-year hiatus.

    Waha Oil Company is a joint venture of Libya’s National Oil Corporation, US-based ConocoPhillips and France’s TotalEnergies.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14565844/main5853.jpg
    Wil Crisp