Mena economies living dangerously
27 December 2023

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again
Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.
Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year. Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.
The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies.
GDP growth
The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.
Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost.
Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.
As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024.
Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.
“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert.
“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.”
In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.
Government spending
Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power.
Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget. This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects.
That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024.
There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.
For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years.
The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible.
“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”
El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”
Regional trade
There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.
The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.
“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”
Near-term challenges
While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown.
Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly.
Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country
Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures.
Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows.
The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households.
A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms. Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.
Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre.
Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza.
Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.
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Can the Gulf build back better? The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. “The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.” It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED. “One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. “We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen. But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.” |
Exclusive from Meed
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Israeli offensive leaves Beirut in limbo5 June 2026
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Morocco tenders Falit dam project5 June 2026
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Kuwait prepares to tender refinery project deal5 June 2026
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Kuwait tenders downstream consultancy contract5 June 2026
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Israeli offensive leaves Beirut in limbo5 June 2026

Lebanon is being held in economic and political limbo by Israel’s open-ended offensive in the south, which has killed more than 3,500 people since March and is characterised by strategic objectives that offer no clear end in sight.
Political leaders in Tel Aviv are justifying the operation on the grounds of eliminating Hezbollah – a far‑fetched goal against a dispersed guerrilla organisation, as with Hamas in Gaza – while ignoring overtures from Lebanon’s leadership for a ceasefire.
The recently formed Lebanese government, meanwhile, continues to look impotent: unable to secure its territory from Israeli incursions or Hezbollah activity, and unable to deliver on promises of stability, reform, IMF funding and reconstruction.
Echoes of the past
The overarching shape of Israel’s military campaign is ominously familiar, echoing the 1978, 1982, 1985 and 2006 Israeli invasions of southern Lebanon – all entailing creeping encroachment without strategic resolution.
Since fighting resumed on 2 March 2026, Israeli forces have gradually pushed north, crossing north of the Litani for the first time since the 2006 Lebanon war and seizing Beaufort Castle above Nabatieh on 31 May.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has framed the goal as establishing a “security zone” – the same term and concept Israel used to justify the occupation of a roughly 800-square-kilometre belt of southern Lebanon from 1985 to 2000.
That occupation was a debacle for Israel’s military and ended in unilateral withdrawal.
Israeli analysts are already drawing the modern parallels as the cost of holding ground in southern Lebanon rises, driven by Hezbollah’s deployment of cheap fibre‑optic first‑person‑view (FPV) drones that inflict a steady drip of Israeli casualties and losses.
As with Russia in Ukraine, Tel Aviv is being tactically embarrassed by the advent of these fibre‑optic drones, which are immune to jamming and – of particular concern to Israeli forces – are too small to be reliably detected and intercepted by conventional counter‑drone systems.
This leap in Hezbollah’s operational threat – based on cheap technology that can be locally assembled – has sharply raised the price of maintaining a military presence in the country.
In an attempt to exact a retaliatory price, Israel’s air strikes rose by 110% between 19-22 May and 23-26 May as Hezbollah’s drone successes accumulated, according to conflict monitor Acled. But the underlying tactical dilemma remains.
Israeli politicians, irate at the situation, have demanded escalation and intensified strikes on civilian areas, including in Beirut – only to face US pushback.
Tehran as the lever
Planned strikes on Beirut, including on 3 June, have been held off in recent weeks under pressure from Washington after Tehran made Lebanon a bargaining chip in its wider negotiations with the US, repeatedly suspending talks following Israeli escalation in the Levant country.
Tehran has also gone further than walkouts, warning it could respond directly if Israel strikes Beirut – adding an explicit threat of retaliation to diplomatic pressure.
With a Gulf ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz both riding on the outcome, Washington is strongly motivated to keep Israel from striking Beirut.
In this way, Iran is one of the few powers wielding any leverage over Israel’s actions in Lebanon – even if that leverage is a source of discomfort for Lebanon’s leaders, for whom Tehran’s clout contrasts starkly with their own lack of influence.
That protection nevertheless remains narrowly tied to the Lebanese capital, with Washington turning a blind eye to Israel’s ongoing destruction of civilian infrastructure in Lebanon’s south.
Within the border belt that Tel Aviv has dubbed the “yellow line” – amounting to about 7% of Lebanese territory – Israeli forces have accelerated the demolition of villages since the April truce and barred residents from returning.
More than a million people, overwhelmingly Shia from the south and the Bekaa, have been displaced since March, and UN human-rights experts have pointed to the blanket evacuation orders and levelling of housing as mirroring Israel’s conduct in Gaza.
The Lebanese state remains trapped in inaction, partially of its own making. Beirut was initially close to indifferent to renewed strikes on Hezbollah, whose unilateral re-entry into the war it had condemned for endangering the state.
But as the strikes have shifted methodically towards civilian areas, Beirut’s restraint satisfies no one: the domestic audience wants protection, while Israel and the US want decisive Lebanese army action against Hezbollah.
Yet the Lebanese army – still adhering in spirit to the November 2024 ceasefire framework and loath to move seriously against Hezbollah for fear of stoking civil war – has remained aloof from the conflict.
Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, who is close to Hezbollah and maintains dialogue with the group, says it would honour a genuine ceasefire if only Washington could deliver one.
But repeated attempts to shore up the ceasefire have remained conditional on the Lebanese army stepping up to rein in Hezbollah, while failing to guarantee an end to Israel’s destruction of civilian structures in areas it is occupying.
On 3 June, a fourth round of US‑mediated trilateral talks produced a fresh ceasefire announcement, hailed in Washington as a step towards comprehensive peace.
Yet its conditions – a complete halt to Hezbollah fire, the group’s withdrawal south of the Litani and Lebanese army control of undefined “pilot zones”– merely reiterate past failed protocols. The declaration was unsigned by Hezbollah and unenforceable by Beirut.
Within hours, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected the declaration, stating that any ceasefire must cover the south and begin with Israeli withdrawal, not Hezbollah’s.
Both Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks have continued since the ostensible deal.
Recovery on hold
The economic cost to Lebanon, meanwhile, compounds by the day. The country entered 2026 already in crisis: cumulative GDP down close to 40% since 2019, the pound down 98%, public debt at 150% of GDP, and reserves as low as $11bn as of June 2025.
The government of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam staked its credibility on a long‑deadlocked IMF programme finally unlocking external support. The war has upended this, driving away investment and delaying reform.
The World Bank’s November 2024 assessment – covering only the previous round of fighting, before the March resumption – placed the economic cost at $14bn and recovery needs at $11bn, figures that the current war is now inflating by the day.
Lebanon’s Bank Audi has warned of zero growth this year if the war continues, versus a pre‑escalation projection of reconstruction‑led recovery. Tourism, historically a fifth of the economy and the engine of the 2024 rebound, has been the biggest casualty.
Looking ahead, no reconstruction can be financed while the destruction continues, and no IMF programme can advance while the state cannot ensure stability.
Iran’s leverage may be keeping the bombs off Beirut, but the south’s entrenchment as a war zone is only deepening – with hopes for recovery receding further with every village levelled.
While the costly occupation is imposing a rising political price on the Israeli government that may, in time, bring it to an end, this will be little consolation for those displaced – many of whom now have no communities to return to, and homes built over decades that are gone.
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Morocco tenders Falit dam project5 June 2026
Morocco’s Ministry of Equipment & Water has opened an international tender for the construction of the Falit dam in Figuig province.
According to local media reports, the project has an estimated budget of MD428m ($46m), with commissioning expected between 2029 and 2030.
The bid submission deadline is 15 July.
The dam will be built on the Moulouya River north of Bouarfa in eastern Morocco. The roller-compacted concrete structure will be 59 metres high and have a storage capacity of 25 million cubic metres.
The project is intended to provide drinking water supplies, support agricultural irrigation and enhance flood protection in the region.
Figuig is one of Morocco’s driest regions. It is also vulnerable to flash floods caused by sporadic but intense rainfall events.
Reported ministry data indicates that annual flows at the project site can reach 40.8 million cubic metres in wet years. Long-term average flows are estimated at about 10.3 million cubic metres a year.
The dam will include a spillway and a bottom outlet equipped with a 1,500-millimetre pipe. The outlet will have a discharge capacity of 28 cubic metres a second and will allow the reservoir to be emptied within 15 days if required.
Morocco dam infrastructure
The Figuig region is also home to the Kheng Grou dam project, which is designed to have a storage capacity of 1.07 billion cubic metres.
According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, the dam is on track to be completed by the end of the year.
Morocco-headquartered Bioui Travaux is the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor for the project, valued at $96m.
Another local firm Novec is acting as the main contractor on the project.
The Falit dam tender comes as Morocco continues to invest in new dams, desalination plants and water transfer schemes to address growing pressure on water resources.
The country currently has over $13bn-worth of dam projects under construction, the largest of which is the Ratba dam project in the province of Taounate.
Construction is also set to begin on the $238m Bou Ahmed Dam project, covering 259 hectares, in the province of Chefchaouen. According to MEED Projects data, this was the only major dam contract awarded last year.
The joint venture of Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc and Stam Morocco, a subsidiary of the TGCC group, will carry out EPC works on the project.
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Saudi Energy commissions 2.5GW battery storage project5 June 2026
Saudi Energy, formerly Saudi Electricity Company, has commissioned a major 2.5GW battery energy storage project across five regions in Saudi Arabia.
The project, which serves power grids in Riyadh, Rabigh, Dawadmi, Jouf and Qassim, completed all grid-tied charging and discharging tests at the end of May, said Chinese supplier NR Electric in a statement.
National Grid Saudi Arabia, a wholly owned subsidiary of Saudi Energy, awarded Saudi firm Alfanar Company and China’s BYD Energy Storage the contract to build and install five battery energy storage system (bess) facilities with a total combined installed capacity of up to 2,500MW, equivalent to a rated capacity of up to 12,500 megawatt-hours, in January 2025.
Alfanar was appointed as the project’s engineering, procurement and construction contractor, while BYD Energy Storage was responsible for the design, supply, supervision of installation, testing and commissioning, and maintenance of the bess plants.
The 12.5 gigawatt-hour (GWh) project is the world’s largest grid-scale energy storage deployment, requiring 2,364 system cabinets in total.
NR Electric said it supplied the project’s grid-forming control technology and more than 2,000 power conversion system units.
The main applications for the planned bess facilities include load shifting, black start, frequency regulation and voltage support.
They are expected to replace part-load operation of existing power plants by charging and discharging electricity according to system load variations and primary and secondary reserves, among other potential applications.
Shenzhen-based BYD previously announced that the five bess plants would take its total deployments in Saudi Arabia to about 15.1GWh.
It deployed its bess products on Saudi Arabia’s first on-grid bess plant in Bisha, one of 17 projects globally with a capacity of over 1GWh that entered operations in 2024.
> Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …
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Kuwait prepares to tender refinery project deal5 June 2026
State-owned downstream operator Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) has announced that it is preparing to tender a contract to develop a gauging system for a tank farm at the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery.
The system will replace an older, now obsolete system at the South Liquid Tank Farm.
The contract will include engineering, procurement, construction, testing and commissioning of the new gauging system.
KNPC is planning to invite 24 companies to participate in the bidding process.
These are:
- JGC Corporation (Japan)
- Almeer Technical Services Co. (Kuwait)
- CTCI Corporation (Taiwan)
- Kellogg Brown & Root (US)
- Kentz Overseas (UAE)
- IMCO Engineering & Construction Company (Kuwait)
- National Petroleum Construction Company (UAE)
- Sinopec Luoyang Engineering (China)
- Sinopec Engineering Incorporation (China)
- Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
- SK Ecoplant (South Korea)
- Gulf Spic General Trading & Contracting Company (Kuwait)
- Hyundai Engineering (South Korea)
- Enppi (Egypt)
- Hyundai Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
- Saipem (Italy)
- Technip Energies (France)
- Larsen & Toubro (India)
- Hanwha Engineering & Construction Corporation (South Korea)
- Sinopec Engineering Group (China)
- Samsung E&A (South Korea)
- Daewoo Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
- Fluor (US)
- Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)
If a company has not been included in the list and would like to participate in the tender, it can file a complaint with the chairman of Kuwait’s Higher Purchase Committee within 30 days.
The Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery has been attacked and damaged as part of the regional war that broke out after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.
Several units were shut down at Kuwait’s largest oil refinery after it was hit by drones and fires broke out in the morning of 20 March 2026.
The refinery normally processes about 730,000 barrels of oil a day.
Kuwait’s oil and gas sector has been severely disrupted by the ongoing regional conflict, which has led to a dramatic drop in crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz.
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Kuwait tenders downstream consultancy contract5 June 2026
State-owned downstream operator Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) has tendered a consultancy contract focused on a liquid sulphur degassing facility for four sulphur recovery units at the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery.
This type of unit removes dissolved hydrogen sulphide and other sulphur compounds from molten sulphur before it is stored, loaded onto trucks, or exported.
This makes the sulphur safer to handle and reduces emissions.
A total of 21 companies have been invited to participate in the tender.
These are:
- Asprofos Single Member Engineering Societe Anonyme (Greece)
- Enereco (Italy)
- EPC Constructions India (India)
- Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (Enppi) (Egypt)
- Gulf Spic General Trading & Contracting Company (Kuwait)
- Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Kuwait)
- ILF Consulting Engineers (Austria)
- Larsen & Toubro (India)
- Litwin PEL (UAE)
- Mott MacDonald (UK)
- National Petroleum Construction Company (UAE)
- Penspen International (UK)
- Petro6 Engineering & Construction (India)
- Petrocil Engineers & Consultants Pvt. (India)
- PL Engineering (India)
- Processes Unlimited (US)
- Tebodin (Netherlands)
- Technip Energies France (France)
- Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
- Triune Energy Services (India)
- Toyo Engineering Corporation (Japan)
A pre-tender meeting for the project is scheduled for 8 June 2026, and the bid closing date is 25 June 2026.
The Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery has been attacked and damaged as part of the regional war that broke out after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.
Several units were shut down at Kuwait’s largest oil refinery after it was hit by drones and fires broke out in the morning of 20 March 2026.
The refinery normally processes about 730,000 barrels of oil a day.
Kuwait’s oil and gas sector has been severely disrupted by the ongoing regional conflict, which has led to a dramatic drop in crude exports via the Strait of Hormuz.
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