meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Mena economies living dangerously

27 December 2023

 

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again

Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.

Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year.  Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.

The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies. 

GDP growth

The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.

Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost. 

Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.

As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024. 

Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.

“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert. 

“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.” 

In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.

Government spending

Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power. 

Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget.  This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects. 

That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024. 

There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.

For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years. 

The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible. 

“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”

El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”

Regional trade

There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.

The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.

“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”

Near-term challenges

While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown. 

Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly. 

Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country 

Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures. 

Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows. 

The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households. 

A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms.  Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.  

Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre. 

Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza. 

Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.

Can the Gulf build back better?

The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. 

Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. 

“The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.”   

It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED.

“One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. 

“We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen.  But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.”

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11360413/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Local contractor to build nine Bahrain substations

    30 July 2026

     

    Bahrain’s Electricity & Water Authority (EWA) has awarded the local Al-Kooheji Electrical a contract to build nine 66kV substations across the kingdom, according to a source.

    The project is estimated to be worth $110m and is intended to support rising electricity demand from Bahrain’s domestic, commercial and industrial sectors.

    Four local contractors submitted commercial bids for the contract in January. The bidders were:

    • Nass Contracting ($28.4m)
    • Poullaides Construction Company ($31.7m)
    • Mohammed Jalal Contracting ($32.4m)
    • Al-Kooheji Electrical ($34m)

    The substations will be located at South Hidd Industrial, Mondelez, Alba Downstream Park, Muharraq North, Hamala West, Bani Jamra, Hoora, Maqabah East and West Riffa Club.

    The scope includes the construction of the nine substations and control rooms, as well as the installation of transformers, switchgear and feeders connecting the facilities to the grid.

    It also covers communication cabling, monitoring systems, safety and security systems, and associated civil and structural works.

    As MEED understands, the substations are scheduled to be commissioned in stages. Two are planned for 2026, followed by four in 2027 and the remaining three in 2028.

    Serbia’s Energoprojekt Entel was appointed as consultant for the project in April 2025. The consultant’s contract was valued at about $460,000.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17834380/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • CB&I’s newly acquired unit wins Abu Dhabi wells contract

    30 July 2026

    US-based Chicago Bridge & Iron (CB&I) has announced that its Asset Solutions business – acquired earlier this year from UK-headquartered contractor Petrofac – has won a hydrocarbon well services contract in Abu Dhabi.

    The contract was awarded by Cosmo E&P Albahriya, a wholly owned UAE-based subsidiary of Japan’s Cosmo Energy Holdings Company (Cosmo).

    Under the well engineering services contract, CB&I Asset Solutions will support drilling, engineering, planning and operational activities for offshore Block 4 in Abu Dhabi.

    Cosmo secured 100% exploration rights for offshore Block 4 – covering 4,865 square kilometres of Gulf waters northwest of Abu Dhabi city – in February 2021.

    The block was offered in Abu Dhabi’s second hydrocarbons block competitive bidding round, launched by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) in May 2019.

    “The award strengthens Asset Solutions’ position in the Middle East and solidifies new relationships with key regional operators. With shared goals of prioritising safe, stable and environmentally conscious production, CB&I’s UAE-based team will draw on its local and global experience of delivering innovative well engineering solutions,” the Texas-based CB&I said in a statement.

    ALSO READ: Abu Dhabi awards production licences for hydrocarbon blocks

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17834142/main4710.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Oman tenders advisory for 3GW solar programme

    30 July 2026

    Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (Nama PWP) has invited bids for financial and commercial consultancy services for the development of three 1GW solar independent power projects (IPPs).

    The projects will connect to Oman’s main interconnected system (MIS) and are targeted to reach commercial operation by the second quarter of 2030.

    The successful bidder will provide financial and commercial consultancy services for the development of the projects and advise Nama PWP on the competitive tendering process.

    The tender was issued on 28 July, and the bid submissions deadline is 10 September.

    The three projects covered by the financial and commercial consultancy tender are understood to also be part of the 4GW programme, for which a technical advisory tender was issued on 15 July.

    As MEED reported, this covers four 1GW solar projects connected to the MIS, also targeting commercial operation by the second quarter of 2030.

    The deadline for bids is 26 August.

    Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC) had earlier outlined the planned grid connection for four 1GW solar IPPs as part of the sultanate’s renewable energy expansion through 2030.

    The projects are included in OETC’s Five-Year Annual Transmission Capability Statement for 2026-30.

    The first, the 1GW Adam solar IPP, is scheduled for grid integration in 2028 and is further ahead in the procurement process, with Nama PWP issuing a request for qualification for the project in June.

    OETC said it expects the 1GW Al-Kamil 2 solar project to be integrated in 2030 through the planned Sadaf 400kV grid station. The 1GW Dhofar solar IPP and 1GW Mahadha solar IPP are also scheduled for integration in 2030.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17817321/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Azerbaijan seeks interest for wastewater PPP

    29 July 2026

    Azerbaijan has invited developers to submit expressions of interest (EoIs) for a public-private partnership (PPP) project to rehabilitate the Hovsan wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and develop new wastewater recycling facilities.

    The scheme will be Azerbaijan’s first wastewater PPP. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is advising the government on the project.

    The Hovsan WWTP is Azerbaijan’s largest wastewater treatment plant with a design capacity of 640,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    The project comprises two components. The first covers the rehabilitation, financing, operation and maintenance of the existing Hovsan plant to improve discharge quality and sludge management.

    The second component covers the design, construction, financing, operation and maintenance of a new wastewater recycling facility with a capacity of 100,000 cm/d. The facility will supply recycled water for irrigation.

    The overall project is expected to serve up to 2.5 million people in Baku.

    ADB’s Office of Markets Development and PPP (OMDP) is acting as transaction adviser. Its role includes supporting project concept development and structuring, preparing and executing the competitive tender process, and assisting the government in achieving financial close.

    The deadline for interested firms to submit EoIs is 21 August.

    Azerbaijan has previously used the PPP model to attract private investment into large infrastructure projects, including in the water and renewable energy sectors.

    The country’s first PPP tender in the water sector was for a seawater reverse osmosis desalination plant at Sumgayit Industrial Park, northwest of Baku.

    As previously reported, a consortium of Saudi Arabia’s Acwa and Turkiye’s IC Ictas Insaat Sanayi ve Ticaret won the contract to develop the $400m plant, which will have a capacity of 300,000 cm/d.

    In September 2025, Acwa signed agreements with the government of Azerbaijan covering a public‑private partnership agreement, a land lease, a sovereign undertaking, and a product water sale and purchase agreement.

    The plant has a 27.5-year project term, with early commercial operations scheduled for the second half of 2028.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17805572/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Kuwait construction holds up despite regional strife

    29 July 2026

     

    Kuwait’s construction and transport sectors are emerging from one of their strongest periods on record, with contract awards totalling $5.5bn last year, close to the record $5.6bn set in 2024.

    Against that backdrop, momentum has held up better than expected in 2026. Awards in the construction and infrastructure sectors reached about $1.2bn in the period to 27 July, only marginally down from the $1.6bn recorded over the same period last year. Given the disruption to investor confidence and tender timelines across the Gulf caused by regional conflict, the near-flat comparison points to a market that has held its footing rather than stalled.

    That steadiness reflects a broader push to keep major projects moving even as the region navigates a more uncertain operating environment. Underpinning the momentum is the $4bn engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract awarded to China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) in late December for the remaining phases of Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port on Boubyan Island, covering dredging, marine works and terminal infrastructure.

    Although the deal predates the current period of regional disruption, it helped establish momentum that has carried into 2026, with Kuwait continuing to advance large-scale schemes across ports, roads and utilities.

    This marks a notable shift for a market that, prior to its recent run, had a reputation for slow decision-making and a thin pipeline relative to regional peers. Contractors and consultants point to a steadier flow of tenders reaching the award stage this year, even with overall values marginally below last year’s pace – a gap narrow enough to suggest Kuwait’s pipeline has proven more insulated from regional volatility than many expected.

    Infrastructure pipeline

    Kuwait’s infrastructure pipeline is now approaching $16bn, spanning ports, roads and utilities projects at various stages of tendering and execution. The most recent addition came at Shuaiba Port, Kuwait’s oldest and principal industrial gateway, where the Kuwait Ports Authority (KPA) received bids in July for infrastructure and electrical modernisation works.

    The package sits alongside longer-term plans for Shuaiba. Since December, KPA has been in talks with Abu Dhabi’s AD Ports Group over a possible concession to develop a new container terminal, adding to a pipeline that already includes upgrade works at Shuwaikh and Doha ports under KPA’s wider tender programme.

    Elsewhere, Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) has opened commercial bids for two major infrastructure and public buildings packages at South Al-Mutlaa Residential City. Local firm United Buildings Company has emerged as the lowest bidder on both, with combined offers worth KD44m covering the construction, completion and maintenance of services, infrastructure and public buildings across different district centres.

    Tendering is also under way for the estimated KD222m ($718m) rainwater drainage networks serving Sabah Al-Ahmad, South Sabah Al-Ahmad, Al-Khairan and Al-Wafra. The works comprise a major concrete sewer, three collection basins and an extensive stormwater drainage network, with collection tanks linked through an independent system that discharges to sea via the Nuwaiseeb outlet.

    Construction gains pace

    This infrastructure momentum has been mirrored in the construction sector, where Kuwait awarded an estimated $232m contract to China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) in mid-July to construct the new headquarters of the Kuwait Direct Investment Promotion Authority (KDIPA). The contract covers a 275-metre, 55-storey office tower in Kuwait City’s Sharq district, targeted for completion in the second quarter of 2028.

    Beyond the KDIPA award, several schemes forming part of Kuwait’s estimated $36bn construction pipeline are expected to progress in the coming months.

    The largest is the first phase of the planned $22bn Sabriya City project, for which Beijing- and Shanghai-listed Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) is expected to sign one of the main contracts. MCC presented a fully funded proposal to Kuwaiti ministers for the city last year. The project is expected to include 52,000 housing units, alongside a power plant, hospital and marina.

    Consultants are meanwhile bidding for the design and supervision of the estimated $580m service hub buildings at Al-Mutlaa Health City, a project spanning more than 351,000 square metres.

    The Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp) has also awarded two landmark public-private partnership (PPP) deals this year.

    In January, it awarded an estimated $252m contract to develop the Al-Muthanna Complex real estate project to a local consortium comprising Real Estate House, National Investments Company, Arkan Kuwait Real Estate Company, Beyout Holding Company and Osoul Investment Company. The contract covers the rehabilitation, development, operation and management of the complex under a 15-year usufruct arrangement.

    In February, United Real Estate Company was awarded the third phase of a waterfront real estate project in Sharq, Kuwait City, under a similar 15-year arrangement covering rehabilitation, development, operation and management.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17805093/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal