meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Mena economies living dangerously

27 December 2023

 

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again

Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.

Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year.  Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.

The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies. 

GDP growth

The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.

Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost. 

Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.

As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024. 

Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.

“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert. 

“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.” 

In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.

Government spending

Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power. 

Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget.  This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects. 

That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024. 

There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.

For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years. 

The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible. 

“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”

El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”

Regional trade

There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.

The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.

“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”

Near-term challenges

While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown. 

Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly. 

Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country 

Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures. 

Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows. 

The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households. 

A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms.  Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.  

Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre. 

Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza. 

Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.

Can the Gulf build back better?

The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. 

Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. 

“The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.”   

It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED.

“One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. 

“We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen.  But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.”

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11360413/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • WEBINAR: End-of-Year Mena Market Review

    13 November 2026

    Webinar: The big questions shaping the Gulf market. You decide what gets debated.
    Tuesday 24 November 2026  | 11:00 AM GST  |  Register now

    What makes this session particularly interesting is that the audience gets to decide the agenda. Registrants can vote for the topics they’d like Ed and Colin to debate, with the most popular questions forming the final shortlist for the live session.

    Topics in the ballot:

    • Is the Gulf trying to build too much, too quickly?
    • Saudi Arabia or the UAE: where would you place your next big bet?
    • Are gigaprojects the best use of public money?
    • Who is really responsible when projects go wrong?
    • Should the lowest-price tender become a thing of the past?
    • Can private capital take over from the government in financing infrastructure and diversification?
    • Is the Gulf’s AI and data centre boom a smart bet or the next overbuilding risk?
    • Should the Gulf double down on hydrocarbons to fund diversification?
    • Is localisation strengthening the economy or making delivery harder?
    • Are Gulf countries building complementary economies or competing for the same customers?

    The session will also feature live audience polling and Q&A, giving attendees an opportunity to share their views.

    Hosted by: 

    Edward James, head of content and analysis at MEED

    A well-known and respected thought leader in Mena affairs, Edward James has been with MEED for more than 19 years, working as a researcher, consultant and content director. Today, he heads up all content and research produced by the MEED group. His specific areas of expertise are construction, hydrocarbons, power and water, and the petrochemicals market. He is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Mena projects market. He is a regular guest commentator on Middle East issues for news channels such as the BBC, CNN and ABC News and is a regular speaker at events in the region. 

    Colin Foreman, editor of MEED 

    Colin Foreman is editor and a specialist construction journalist for news and analysis on MEED.com and the MEED Business Review magazine. He has been reporting on the region since 2003, specialising in the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy. He has reported exclusively on a wide range of projects across the region including Dubai Metro, the Burj Khalifa, Jeddah Airport, Doha Metro, Hamad International airport and Yas Island. Before joining MEED, Colin reported on the construction sector in Hong Kong.

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21380319/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Syntys breaks ground on 20MW Qatar data centre

    13 November 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Qatari data centre developer Syntys has broken ground on a 20MW facility to support hyperscale, cloud, artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced computing deployments.

    The groundbreaking ceremony took place on 12 November. It was attended by Qatar’s Communications & Information Technology Minister, Mohammed bin Ali bin Mohammed Al-Mannai, along with representatives from Ooredoo Group, Microsoft, Google, Kahramaa, the National Cyber Security Agency, Qatar Free Zones Authority and local banks.

    Syntys said the facility is being developed on an existing company campus, where power, fibre connectivity and an operational team are already in place. The company has yet to disclose the project value or planned completion date.

    The facility is designed to meet Tier 3 requirements and accommodate a range of rack densities, including higher-density configurations for graphics processing unit (GPU)-based AI and high-performance computing workloads.

    It will operate as a carrier-neutral facility, allowing customers to select connectivity providers and establish network resilience in line with their own technical and operational requirements.

    The project forms part of Syntys’ strategy to expand its Qatar platform through acquisitions and new development. Earlier this year, the company acquired QData QFZ, adding two operational, Tier 3-compliant, carrier-neutral facilities to its portfolio.

    Syntys now owns and operates four campuses in Qatar, allowing customers to establish primary and disaster-recovery environments at separate in-country locations.

    The company also designs and operates the facilities supporting Ooredoo’s sovereign AI cloud, which uses Nvidia Hopper GPUs.

    The development comes as Qatar implements its Digital Agenda 2030, which identifies digital infrastructure as one of six strategic pillars and targets about QR40bn ($11bn) in economic impact by 2030.

    The data centre is expected to support the growth of in-country digital services and enable sensitive workloads to remain within Qatar’s national borders.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21378257/main1028.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Jereh wins $392m Bu Hasa oil field facilities project

    13 November 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The onshore oil and gas business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Onshore) has awarded China’s Jereh Group a contract valued at AED1.44bn ($392.1m) for the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of wellhead surface facilities and flowlines at the Bu Hasa cluster of oil fields in Abu Dhabi.

    The cluster includes the Bu Hasa, Bida Al-Qemzan and Huwaila fields. The objective of the project is to build wellhead surface facilities and lay gathering flowlines that will connect new wells to the existing production network.

    The scope of work on the project also covers the design, fabrication and installation of:

    • production well module skids
    • gas lift skids, which inject gas into wells to help lift the oil
    • skid-mounted wellhead control panels
    • solar power units

    The framework agreement awarded by Adnoc Onshore on a call-off basis has a duration of 36 months, with an extendable option of 24 months, Jereh said in a filing with China’s Shenzhen Stock Exchange, where it is listed.

    Adnoc Onshore is Adnoc Group’s largest production subsidiary, accounting for about 2 million barrels a day (b/d) of crude and about 7 billion cubic feet a day of associated gas from four primary onshore asset clusters: Bab, Bu Hasa, North East Bab and South East.

    Maintaining and enhancing oil output levels at the Bu Hasa asset is critical to Adnoc Onshore’s contribution to parent company Adnoc Group’s target of expanding crude oil production capacity to 5 million b/d by 2027, an initiative known as Accelerated Integrated Programme 5. The state energy company’s total production capacity currently stands at approximately 4.85 million b/d.

    Prior to this contract, Adnoc Onshore selected Jereh Oil & Gas Engineering Company in 2024 for a project to digitally connect 2,443 wells at the Bab, Bu Hasa and South East cluster of onshore oil fields in Abu Dhabi for remote operations. The contract, formally awarded in 2025, was valued at $920m.

    Abu Dhabi contracts

    The contract for the Bu Hasa wellhead facilities and flowlines is among a trio of projects totalling approximately $2.7bn that has been awarded by Adnoc Group in recent weeks, Jereh announced in its stock market filing.

    The largest of the three contracts, valued at $1.7bn, is for the Ruwais Diyab unconventional gas development in Abu Dhabi. Awarded to Jereh on a design, build and operate model, the contract has a duration of 29 months for construction works and 60 months of operations, with up to two five-year extensions available.

    Adnoc achieved final investment decision on the Ruwais Diyab unconventional gas development project on 2 November, during the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference 2026.

    The project will deliver 345 million standard cubic feet a day (scf/d) of raw gas from 2029 over a 25-year period, with the potential to reach up to 1 billion scf/d in the future.

    The scope of work on the Ruwais Diyab project covers:

    • wellsite facilities
    • a central processing facility
    • gas gathering pipelines and product export pipelines
    • utilities

    The plant will treat the raw gas and recover the liquids produced with it. It will also treat produced water, which is the water that comes up from the wells with the gas, and recover sulphur. Finished products will be delivered to designated receiving facilities.

    When the operation period ends, Jereh will either hand the facilities over to Adnoc or decommission them and restore the site, as the contract and the owner require.

    The third contract covers Adnoc Onshore’s Bab and North East Bab 1 tie-in project, where the main scope of work involves tying in new oil producer wells and removing and modifying surface facilities at existing producer wells.

    The project’s scope also covers supporting works for water supply wells, water injection wells, disposal wells and water-alternating-gas injection wells. Several existing wells will also be upgraded with digital systems.

    Jereh said the value of its contract is $599m, with a duration of 60 months. Similar to the Bu Hasa project, this contract also uses a framework model wherein Adnoc Onshore will issue work orders in batches according to its execution plans.

    MEED previously reported that Adnoc Onshore had divided the scope of work on the Bab and North East Bab 1 tie-in project into 18 EPC packages. Along with Jereh, Adnoc Onshore has picked Abu Dhabi-based Robt Stone Middle East for a portion of work on the project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21355151/main3320.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • PDO awards contract for Al-Ghubar oil field project

    12 November 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) has awarded the main contract for a project to build a facility to handle additional oil production from the Al-Ghubar field in the sultanate.

    The Al-Ghubar field is located in the Ghaba Salt Basin at Qarn Alam, within majority state-owned PDO’s Block 6 concession area.

    The Al-Ghubar gas-oil gravity drainage (GOGD) facility will be designed as a sour (hydrogen sulphide) facility and is expected to handle a maximum oil production rate of 1,800 standard cubic metres a day (cm/d), a total water flow rate of up to 10,421 standard cm/d and gas lift of up to 256,934 standard cm/d. Production from the planned Al-Ghubar GOGD facility will be exported to PDO’s main oil line.

    China-based Jereh Group has won the contract for the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project, sources told MEED.

    A project kick-off meeting between PDO and Jereh has also recently taken place, the sources said.

    MEED previously reported that Jereh had emerged as the lowest bidder for the project.

    The following contractors, among others, are understood to have been bidding for the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project:

    • Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (Egypt) / Petrojet (Egypt)
    • GS Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Jereh (China)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)

    PDO floated the tender for the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project in March, setting an initial bid submission deadline of 4 May, MEED previously reported.

    PDO later extended the deadlines for the submission of technical and commercial bids to 26 July and 7 August, respectively. Contractors submitted technical proposals by the revised deadline, according to sources.

    After receiving the technical bids for the project in July, PDO granted contractors until 16 August to submit commercial bids. It eventually extended the deadline to 1 September, with contractors submitting commercial proposals by that date, as MEED reported.

    The scope of work on the Al-Ghubar GOGD project covers the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of the following:

    • On-plot scope, consisting of:
      • Production separator  
      • Test separator  
      • Concentric wash tank
      • Wet oil pump
      • Water bath heater
      • Surge tank
      • Gas injection/gas lift compressor (centrifugal)
      • Utilities (instrument air compressors, chemical injection skids, drain system, vent system) 
      • Suction scrubber
      • Air coolers
      • Discharge scrubbers
      • Condensate flash drum
      • Atmospheric pressure knock-out drum 
      • Flare system
      • Gas heater
      • Water disposal pump
      • Oil shipping pump
      • 132kV substation and plant substation (housing 6.6kV and 415-Volt switchboard)
      • Control room
         
    • Off-plot scope consisting of:
      • Off-plot pipeline network (bulk header, test header, gathering infrastructure/ gathering line header, instrument air header, water disposal header)
      • Two remote manifold stations 
      • Tie-in connection to main oil line
      • Tie-in to gas network pipeline

    PDO previously intended to tender the Al-Ghubar GOGD project under its framework structure with selected EPC contractors, but ultimately tendered it separately.

    PDO is the operator of Oman’s Block 6 hydrocarbons concession, the sultanate’s largest and most prolific concession. Situated onshore and covering an area of 75,119 square kilometres, Block 6 contains 202 oil fields and 43 gas fields. PDO produces approximately 680,000 barrels a day of oil and condensates from the fields.

    The Omani government holds a 60% stake in PDO through Energy Development Oman. The other shareholders are UK-based Shell (34%), France’s TotalEnergies (4%) and Thailand’s state-owned PTTEP (2%).

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21345337/main2647.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Laing O’Rourke joins the international exit list

    12 November 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Laing O’Rourke’s decision to seek a buyer for its Middle East business marks the end of an era for UAE construction.

    In the early 2000s, the contractor was among the leading names in the market. Its work at Dubai International airport, the Atlantis hotel on the Palm Jumeirah and the ski slope at Mall of the Emirates made it arguably the UAE’s most prominent contractor during the pre-global financial crisis construction boom.

    Its activities were not limited to Dubai. A partnering agreement with Aldar for Al-Raha Beach then made it the most active contractor in Abu Dhabi almost overnight.

    The global financial crisis changed its fortunes. The Aldar Laing O’Rourke joint venture ended. Unsettled by payment problems and wider stress in the industry, the company took a more cautious approach to clients and projects in the region. One executive at the time told MEED: “You might see lots of tower cranes, but none of them are doing work that we would want to do.”

    The contractor’s appetite partially returned in the late 2010s, when it won Al-Wasl Plaza at the Expo 2020 site in Dubai. It also became a leading player in the growing data centre market, delivering facilities for repeat clients, including Khazna and Equinix.

    Data centres have since been its focus. These are significant projects, but they lack the public profile of the airport, Atlantis and Al-Wasl Plaza. As its profile faded, the company sold its UAE joinery arm to Dubai-based Arco Turnkey Solutions in 2025.

    Laing O’Rourke now looks set to follow other international contractors that have, for various reasons, left the region, including Murray & Roberts, Balfour Beatty, Multiplex, Carillion and Bam. With a record £17.2bn order book anchored by UK and Australian infrastructure, the group’s priorities clearly lie elsewhere.

    Whoever buys the business will inherit strong data centre credentials. For much of the market, however, Laing O’Rourke will be remembered for the landmark projects that defined the UAE’s boom years.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/21344577/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman