meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Mena economies living dangerously

27 December 2023

 

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again

Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.

Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year.  Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.

The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies. 

GDP growth

The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.

Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost. 

Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.

As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024. 

Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.

“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert. 

“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.” 

In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.

Government spending

Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power. 

Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget.  This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects. 

That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024. 

There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.

For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years. 

The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible. 

“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”

El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”

Regional trade

There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.

The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.

“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”

Near-term challenges

While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown. 

Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly. 

Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country 

Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures. 

Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows. 

The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households. 

A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms.  Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.  

Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre. 

Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza. 

Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.

Can the Gulf build back better?

The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. 

Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. 

“The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.”   

It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED.

“One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. 

“We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen.  But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.”

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11360413/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Oman awards exploration blocks to state upstream firm

    28 September 2026

    Oman’s Ministry of Energy & Minerals (MEMR) has awarded state-owned upstream firm OQ Exploration & Production (OQEP) exploration rights for three hydrocarbon blocks in the sultanate.

    OQEP, which is 75% owned by Omani state energy group OQ, has secured rights for Blocks 36, 43A and 66.

    Under the agreements, OQEP will conduct geological and geophysical surveys, analysis and modelling, and drill exploratory wells at the three blocks, with the aim of developing recoverable reserves.

    Neither MEMR nor OQEP disclosed the blocks’ locations, areas or prospective reserves in their statement.

    OQEP’s portfolio comprises 14 upstream oil and gas exploration and production assets in Oman, covering onshore and offshore operations and assets held under service contracts.

    Formerly known as Oman Oil Company Exploration & Production, OQEP’s flagship assets include Block 60, which contains the Abu Tubul and Bisat oil fields, and Block 48. The company also holds strategic interests in gas-producing Blocks 9, 10 and 61.

    Offshore expansion

    OQEP has been expanding its offshore exploration portfolio. In February, the company acquired a 30% participating interest in offshore Block 18, following MEMR’s award of exploration rights to a joint venture between OQEP subsidiary OQ Exploration & Production Al-Batinah Offshore and PC Oman Ventures, a wholly owned subsidiary of Malaysia’s Petronas.

    Located off Oman’s northeastern coast, Block 18 covers more than 21,000 square kilometres in the Sea of Oman, with water depths ranging from 50 metres to 3,000 metres. No confirmed discoveries have previously been reported in the block.

    ALSO READ: Concession deals boost momentum in Oman mining

    Under the concession agreement, Petronas holds a 70% participating interest and operatorship, while OQEP holds the remaining 30%.

    OQEP has also expanded its producing portfolio through the acquisition of a 35% interest in onshore Block 27 from Japan's Mitsui E&P Middle East in April. The transaction was valued at RO28.8m ($75m).

    Block 27 is operated by US-based Occidental Petroleum, which holds a 65% participating interest under an exploration and production-sharing agreement valid until 2035. 

    OQEP expects its interest in the block to contribute approximately 3,500 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boe/d) in additional net production this year.

    In June, MEMR signed an  with OQEP and state-owned Turkiye Petroller AO (TPAO), granting the companies exclusive exploration, appraisal, development and production rights for offshore Block 80.

    The block covers approximately 5,737 sq km in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz and off Musandam governorate. It includes the producing Bukha and West Bukha oil and gas fields.

    The agreement stipulates a minimum exploration investment commitment of $90m over an initial eight-year exploration period. The work programme is divided into two phases to evaluate the block’s hydrocarbon potential.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20063097/main2825.jpeg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Saudi Arabia qualifies firms for gas-fired IPPs

    28 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Principal buyer Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) has qualified 13 companies to bid for the third round of Saudi Arabia’s combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) independent power producer (IPP) programme.

    The projects will comprise new CCGT plants developed on a build-own-operate basis. Each project will be implemented through a special-purpose project company wholly owned by the successful bidder.

    The qualified firms are:

    • Abu Dhabi National Energy Company [Taqa] (UAE)
    • Acwa (Saudi Arabia)
    • Al-Bawani Capital (Saudi Arabia)
    • Al-Jomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia)
    • EDF (France)
    • Etihad Development Company (UAE)
    • Kepco (South Korea)
    • Marafiq (Saudi Arabia)
    • Mitsubishi Power (Japan)
    • Nesma Renewable Energy (Saudi Arabia)
    • PowerChina (China)
    • Saudi Energy (Saudi Arabia)
    • Sumitomo Corporation (Japan)

    Developers submitted statements of qualification for the round on 23 August, as exclusively reported by MEED.

    Some have already begun “the process of forming consortiums to bid” for the project, with up to three or four groups likely to make offers.

    Also in September, MEED exclusively reported that US-based GE Vernova was close to finalising a turbine reservation agreement with SPPC for the plants.

    The new plants will use advanced H-class or J-class gas turbine technology. Each IPP is expected to comprise two or three gas turbine generators, corresponding heat recovery steam generators with duct firing, and one or two steam turbine generators.

    The request for qualifications released by SPPC in July did not specify the number, locations or capacities of the projects, which mark the next stage of its CCGT IPP programme.

    The first round comprises Taiba 1, Taiba 2, Qassim 1 and Qassim 2, with a combined capacity of 7,200MW.

    The second round comprises Rumah 1, Rumah 2, Nairyah 1 and Nairyah 2, also with a combined capacity of 7,200MW.

    Saudi Arabia’s Acwa recently said it had begun initial commercial operations at the Taiba 1 and Qassim 1 CCGT power plants.

    US/India-based Synergy Consulting is the financial adviser for the procurement; Germany’s Fichtner is the technical adviser; and UK-headquartered Eversheds Sutherland is the legal adviser.

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20055392/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Dewa completes $2.7bn refinancing of Noor Energy 1

    28 September 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has completed a $2.7bn refinancing of the 950MW Noor Energy 1 project, the fourth phase of Dubai’s Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park.

    Noor Energy 1 reached commercial operation in 2024. The project company was established to design, build and operate the plant. It is owned by Dewa (51%), Acwa (25%) and China’s Silk Road Fund (24%).

    The project combines 700MW of concentrated solar power (CSP) with 250MW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity. The CSP component comprises a 600MW parabolic trough facility and a 100MW solar tower.

    It has up to 15 hours of thermal energy storage, allowing it to supply dispatchable electricity beyond daylight hours. Dewa describes Noor Energy 1 as the world’s largest single-site CSP project.

    According to Dewa, the transaction strengthens the project’s financial structure and is expected to generate savings over the operational life of the plant. Saeed Mohammed Al-Tayer, managing director and CEO of Dewa, added that the refinancing demonstrates confidence from international, regional and local financial institutions.

    Abu Dhabi National Future Company (Masdar) is expected to commission the 1,800MW sixth phase of the MBR Solar Park by the end of this year.

    The $1.5bn facility is being implemented by Shuaa Energy 4, a special purpose vehicle jointly owned by Masdar (40%) and Dewa (60%).

    In August, MEED exclusively reported that Masdar is also likely to be awarded the contract to develop the seventh phase of the MBR Solar Park after submitting the lowest bid for the project.

    Phase seven will add 2,000MW from PV solar panels and include a 1,400MW battery energy storage system with a six-hour capacity, providing a total storage capacity of 8,400 megawatt-hours. 

    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20055739/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • BP to drill new well in Egypt as part of $700m campaign

    28 September 2026

    London-headquartered BP has moved the Valaris DS-12 drilling rig to a new position ahead of drilling the planned Ghorab-1 exploration well, according to a statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

    The Ghorab-1 exploration well will be drilled in the offshore West Nile Delta (WND) concession and is part of a $700m drilling campaign that started in April this year.

    The rig was moved to the new position after drilling the Fayoum-4 well.

    The Ministry of Petroleum said the well had commenced production and was connected to the national natural gas grid, delivering approximately 80 million cubic feet a day of gas.

    Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi held a meeting with officials from BP last week to discuss progress on the drilling campaign.

    They discussed BP’s strategic direction and priorities, as well as its future business plans, according to the statement from the Ministry of Petroleum.

    Increased interest

    Amid the US and Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, oil assets in North Africa have become increasingly appealing to international oil companies.

    Disruptions to oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz have severely disrupted a range of countries, including Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.

    London-headquartered Shell has also been pushing ahead with strategic projects in Egypt over recent months.

    In August, BG Delta, a Shell subsidiary, reached the final investment decision for phase 12a of the West Delta Deep Marine (WDDM) development project.

    The project will be implemented in partnership with Malaysia’s Petronas and state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC).

    Shell, Petronas and EGPC formed a joint venture called Burullus Gas Company to operate the WDDM concession.

    Phase 12a includes drilling and completing three deepwater gas wells, with production expected to begin in 2028.

    The wells will be tied into existing subsea infrastructure, helping accelerate development, improve capital efficiency and limit the need for additional facilities.

    In April, Egypt’s Petroleum Marine Services (PMS) was awarded a contract for offshore works for phase 12 of the WDDM field development project.

    The contract awarded to PMS uses the engineering, procurement, installation and construction contract model.

    Under the scope of the contract, PMS will install the required electrical, hydraulic and mechanical connections in deep waters to tie three new gas wells into production as part of phase 12.

    The scope also includes the installation of three final triple tie-in spool bases to complete the connection between the wells.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20050585/main4559.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Oil company talks shape Libya licensing round

    28 September 2026

     

    Conversations with London-headquartered international oil companies (IOCs) are playing a key role in shaping plans for Libya’s next licensing round.

    Representatives from Shell and BP travelled to Libya earlier this month as part of a Libyan British Business Council (LBBC) delegation.

    During the trip, the oil companies’ representatives met with officials from Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).

    Peter Millett, chair of the LBBC and a former British ambassador to Libya, told MEED: “NOC is considering its next licensing round and an important part of that process is talking to IOCs like BP and Shell about what kind of terms would make blocks appealing to them.

    “They are asking these oil companies what they can do differently in order to get more investment.”

    Libya’s NOC chairman is Masoud Suleman, who was formally appointed in October last year after serving as acting chairman since January 2025.

    Shortly after he became acting chairman, the NOC announced the results of its most recent licensing round, which was launched in March 2025 and was the country’s first in 17 years.

    A total of five blocks out of 22 available were ultimately awarded in the 2025 licensing round.

    One of the blocks, known as Block S4, was awarded to US-based Chevron, and the production-sharing agreement (PSA) for the block was signed in August.

    Investment drive

    Millett said Libya is seeking large investments from oil companies in order to boost national production.

    “The way that Masoud Suleman is running NOC is impressive and technocratic,” he said. “One of his focuses is making his organisation into a partner that IOCs want to work with.”

    “NOC has the ambition to produce more oil and export more oil, but they need investment in order to do this.

    “They received some money from the central bank for a budget, but it is just a fraction of what they need.

    “There’s a huge requirement to invest in infrastructure, such as processing facilities and pipelines, so they’re looking to outside companies to bring them investment and technology.”

    Amid the US and Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, oil assets in North Africa have become increasingly appealing to IOCs.

    Disruptions to oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz have severely affected a range of countries, including Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait.

    Millett believes Libya’s proximity to consumer markets could help it secure investment to develop its oil and gas sector.

    “Oil companies appear to be becoming increasingly willing to provide this investment in the current climate, because it is relatively easy to transport Libyan crude to customers,” he said.

    “The only strait that you might need to go through is the Strait of Gibraltar, and this is easy compared to the problems that countries like Iraq and Kuwait are having shipping their crude through the Strait of Hormuz at the moment.”

    Security challenges

    While Libya’s location offers significant benefits in terms of ease of exports, operating in the country comes with security challenges.

    Over recent weeks, both the Mellitah oil and gas complex and the Zawiya refinery in the west of the country have been disrupted by the actions of armed groups.

    On top of this, a key pipeline was shut down by militants, temporarily cutting national production by 130,000 barrels a day.

    While Libya has significant potential to expand its oil and gas sector, IOCs will likely watch for signs of deteriorating security before committing to large investment projects.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20050217/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp