meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Mena economies living dangerously

27 December 2023

 

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again

Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.

Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year.  Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.

The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies. 

GDP growth

The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.

Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost. 

Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.

As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024. 

Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.

“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert. 

“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.” 

In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.

Government spending

Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power. 

Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget.  This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects. 

That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024. 

There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.

For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years. 

The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible. 

“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”

El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”

Regional trade

There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.

The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.

“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”

Near-term challenges

While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown. 

Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly. 

Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country 

Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures. 

Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows. 

The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households. 

A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms.  Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.  

Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre. 

Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza. 

Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.

Can the Gulf build back better?

The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. 

Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. 

“The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.”   

It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED.

“One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. 

“We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen.  But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.”

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11360413/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Lebanon taps foreign players to assess resource potential

    8 June 2026

     

    Lebanon’s oil and gas sector received a major boost in January this year when French energy major TotalEnergies, Italy’s Eni and QatarEnergy signed an agreement with the Lebanese government to enter the Block 8 concession in the country’s territorial waters and explore for gas reserves.

    Under the terms of the deal, TotalEnergies will operate Block 8 and hold a 35% interest, while Eni and QatarEnergy will hold 35% and 30% stakes, respectively.

    Block 8 has long been considered the most promising exploration area in Lebanese waters, but previous efforts to award the exploration permit were repeatedly delayed amid concerns over border tensions and political instability.

    The block lies along the previously disputed maritime boundary between Lebanon and Israel. In 2022, the two countries signed an agreement to resolve the long-running maritime border dispute.

    In a statement, TotalEnergies said: “The consortium's initial work programme on Block 8 consists of the acquisition of a 1,200-square-kilometre 3D seismic survey in order to further assess the area’s exploration potential.”

    Exploration efforts

    The Lebanese Petroleum Administration hopes that international oil companies will make discoveries that will help bolster the country’s struggling economy.

    Lebanon signed its first offshore oil and gas exploration and production agreement in February 2018, awarding Blocks 4 and 9 to a consortium comprising TotalEnergies, Eni and Russia's Novatek following a licensing round in 2017.

    In January 2023, QatarEnergy replaced Novatek in the consortium.

    Under the agreement, QatarEnergy acquired Novatek’s 20% stake, as well as 5% each from TotalEnergies and Eni, giving the Qatari company a total stake of 30%. TotalEnergies and Eni each retained a 35% interest.

    In TotalEnergies’ latest statement, chairman and CEO Patrick Pouyanne said: “Although the drilling of the Qana 31/1 well in Block 9 did not yield positive results, we remain committed to pursuing our exploration activities in Lebanon.

    “We will now focus our efforts on Block 8, together with our partners Eni and QatarEnergy and in close cooperation with the Lebanese authorities.”

    Futile attempts

    More broadly, Lebanon’s offshore oil and gas sector faces an uncertain outlook, characterised by persistent delays, regional conflict and limited exploration activity.

    Despite hopes that maritime agreements and improved diplomatic relations would trigger an energy boom, Lebanon currently produces virtually no oil or natural gas. Political bottlenecks, regional instability and previous dry wells have increasingly shifted attention towards alternative domestic energy solutions.

    Lebanon’s ambition to become a hydrocarbon producer remains unfulfilled due to a combination of commercial and political obstacles. Initial optimism was tempered when consortiums led by TotalEnergies announced that no commercially viable gas discoveries had been made in either Block 4 or Block 9.

    Despite holding licences for potentially prospective acreage, international companies have remained largely inactive in pursuing further deepwater exploration.

    Meanwhile, Lebanon’s third offshore licensing round, launched in 2024, has continued to face delays. Nine offshore blocks within the country’s exclusive economic zone were offered, but interest from exploration and production companies has been limited. As a result, the government has repeatedly extended submission deadlines.

    Although the landmark 2022 maritime boundary agreement with Israel removed a major obstacle to exploration in southern waters, regional security concerns continue to influence the pace of development.

    In late 2025, Lebanon approved a maritime boundary demarcation agreement with Cyprus aimed at clarifying jurisdictional rights and attracting investment to offshore areas.

    Progress in northern waters also remains stalled. More than 652 square kilometres of offshore acreage overlap between Lebanese- and Syrian-claimed waters, making any resolution politically sensitive and diplomatically complex.

    Regional volatility continues to weigh on investor confidence. While periodic ceasefires may provide temporary relief, ongoing tensions across the region still make large-scale energy infrastructure investments highly risky.

    READ: Activity ramps up in Syria’s oil and gas sector

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17145363/main.gif
    Indrajit Sen
  • EtihadWE to auction Al-Zawra power generation assets

    8 June 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) is preparing to auction used power generation assets from its Al-Zawra facility in Ajman.

    The 200MW Al-Zawra gas-fired power plant was developed by the former Federal Electricity & Water Authority (Fewa), which was succeeded by EtihadWE.

    The sale includes gas turbines, generators and associated balance-of-plant equipment from the existing generation facility.

    The main equipment being offered comprises two GE Vernova / General Electric heavy-duty gas turbines. The units are PG 9171E / 9E machines designed for dual-fuel operation using natural gas and distillate. The package also includes two generators.

    EtihadWE said the assets will be sold on an “as is, where is” basis, with interested parties able to arrange site visits and inspections, subject to the relevant approvals.

    According to industry sources, the utility’s two power plants in Ajman and Ras Al-Khaimah have been out of service since 2021, and the Ajman plant was decommissioned in 2023. 

    Companies interested in taking part in the auction should contact:
    Mohamed.Shabeer@etihadwe.com
    khaled.reda@etihadwe.ae
    Horizon.PMO@etihadwe.ae
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17143852/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Kuwait plans to award $988m upstream contract within 30 days

    8 June 2026

     

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) is planning to officially award a $988m project contract to India’s Larsen & Toubro within 30 days, according to industry sources.

    The contract is focused on developing Jurassic Light Oil (JLO) export facilities and upgrading the existing export network.

    Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders (Capt) has approved the award of the contract for the construction of export crude storage facilities and upgrades to the country’s oil export infrastructure.

    Now, talks are expected to take place between KOC and Larsen & Toubro to finalise the contract details.

    Just two companies submitted bids for the contract in October last year.

    The bidders were:

    • Larsen & Toubro (India): KD303.5m ($988m)
    • Petrofac (UK): KD310.6m ($1.01bn)

    Following bid submission, state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) discussed the potential cancellation of the contract tender due to the bids coming in significantly over budget and Petrofac becoming ineligible to win contracts in Kuwait.

    The financially troubled engineering company was temporarily banned from participation in tenders in Kuwait’s oil and gas sector in December last year.

    It was given the ban after the company announced that it had applied to appoint administrators, a move that potentially put thousands of jobs at risk and increased uncertainty for projects worth billions of dollars in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region.

    Despite holding talks about the potential cancellation of the tender, KPC ultimately decided to proceed with the contract award process because it considered the project a high priority.

    One source said: “Around the same time, projects worth around $8bn were cancelled because of bids coming in over budget, but this one has gone ahead because KPC sees it as an essential project.”

    The project was originally tendered in November 2024, with a bid deadline of 1 December the same year.

    The bid deadline was extended several times before bids were ultimately submitted.

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector is in turmoil as a result of the ongoing regional conflict that started on 28 February when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

    Amid the ongoing conflict, Kuwait’s Ministry of Finance has stopped publishing its monthly report with details about revenues from oil exports.

    While there are no official figures available, many experts believe that the country failed to export crude oil during April and May.

    This is likely to have a severe impact on the country’s economy, which relies on oil exports for approximately 90% of government revenues.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17143767/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Amea Power signs 1.5GWh battery storage EPC contracts

    8 June 2026

    UAE-based Amea Power has signed engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts with China Energy Engineering Corporation (China Energy) for two standalone battery energy storage system (bess) projects in Egypt with a combined capacity of 1,500 megawatt-hours (MWh).

    The contracts cover the 500MWh Horus battery storage project in Zafarana and the 1,000MWh Nefertiti battery storage project in Benban.

    The agreements were signed on 4 June in the presence of Mahmoud Esmat, Egypt’s minister of electricity and renewable energy, Sheikh Hussein Al-Nowais, chairman of Al-Nowais Investments and Amea Power, and Ni Jin, chairman of China Energy.

    The projects are part of Egypt’s wider programme to expand energy storage capacity and support the integration of renewable energy into the national grid.

    According to the Ministry of Electricity & Renewable Energy, Egypt plans to increase battery storage capacity to 14,320MWh by 2028.

    The ministry said the expansion of battery storage is required to support the growing share of solar and wind power generation, improve grid stability and reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

    The signing ceremony also included an agreement between Amea Power, China Energy and Chinese battery manufacturer Gotion to establish a battery storage manufacturing facility in Egypt.

    The planned factory will have an annual production capacity of 3,000MWh.

    Amea Power previously signed capacity purchase agreements with the Egyptian government to develop the country’s first standalone bess projects in 2025.

    In March, the government announced it had signed power-purchase agreements for several renewable energy and battery storage projects with a combined capacity of 5.6GW.

    These include a 900MW wind power project in the Red Sea Governorate, along with a 2,000MW solar power plant and a 2,000MWh battery storage facility in the Qena Governorate. 

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17143364/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Opec+ approves fourth consecutive oil output quota hike

    8 June 2026

    The Opec+ alliance of oil producers has agreed a fourth increase in its oil output targets in as many months, even though the conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel is still preventing several members from pumping more crude.

    The war has disrupted oil flows via the Strait of Hormuz, creating a severe supply crisis. Key Opec+ members, including Saudi Arabia, have been unable to supply customers in full since the end of February. The crisis for Opec+ deepened when the UAE left Opec after almost 60 years of membership.

    Seven core members of Opec+ – which comprises Opec countries and a group of non-Opec states led by Russia – raised their output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels a day (b/d).

    In practice, however, the group’s production has fallen sharply due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million b/d in April compared with 42.77 million b/d in February, according to Opec figures.

    At the latest meeting of Opec+ oil ministers on 7 June, the seven members agreed to increase targets by 188,000 b/d from July, Opec said in a statement. This matches the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 b/d in April and May to take account of the UAE’s exit.

    Iraq’s oil output quota will rise by 26,000 b/d from July under the agreement, an oil ministry spokesperson told Iraq’s state news agency.

     

    On 5 June, oil prices fell to about $93 a barrel as traders gained confidence that renewed conflict between the US and Iran was becoming less likely. Prices were close to $72 before the war began on 28 February.

    Brent crude rose sharply at the start of this week after Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel on the night of 7 June, heightening fears that US-Iran peace talks might once again collapse. Israel has since retaliated with strikes in western and central Iran, despite calls from US President Donald Trump not to respond to the Iranian missiles.

    Brent crude jumped by around 4.5% early on 8 June and was trading at $97.52 a barrel as of 11am GST.

    The seven key Opec+ members are increasing production as part of the gradual unwinding of a 1.65 million b/d production cut agreed in 2023 by the coalition, which at the time included the UAE.

    From July, the seven have about 567,000 b/d of the original cut left to return to the market – taking into account the UAE’s exit from 1 May – according to Reuters calculations.

    That would imply the remainder of the cut will be unwound by the end of September if Opec+ maintains monthly hikes of about 188,000 b/d in August and September.

    The seven of the 21 Opec+ members who met on 7 June were Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman. In recent years, only these seven – plus the UAE when it was a member– have been involved in the group’s output-policy decisions.

    In a separate meeting on Sunday attended by all Opec+ members, ministers made no change to the group-wide output policy in place until the end of 2026, Opec+ said in another statement.

    Opec+ is also reviewing members’ oil production capacity to use as a reference for 2027 production baselines, from which quotas are set. On Sunday, the group reaffirmed the importance of completing the assessment, the statement said.

    ALSO READ: UAE to continue working with Opec, energy minister says

     

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17143267/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen