Mena economies living dangerously
27 December 2023

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again
Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.
Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year. Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.
The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies.
GDP growth
The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.
Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost.
Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.
As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024.
Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.
“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert.
“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.”
In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.
Government spending
Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power.
Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget. This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects.
That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024.
There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.
For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years.
The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible.
“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”
El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”
Regional trade
There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.
The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.
“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”
Near-term challenges
While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown.
Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly.
Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country
Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures.
Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows.
The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households.
A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms. Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.
Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre.
Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza.
Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.
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Can the Gulf build back better? The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. “The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.” It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED. “One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. “We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen. But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.” |
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The second tender covers the supply, installation and maintenance of 10 main 132/11kV transformer substations for the fourth phase of the project.
The bid deadline for this project has also been moved to 19 August.
Both projects were initially tendered in May. As reported by MEED, PAHW previously issued addendums for both substation tenders, revising the qualification requirements for bidders.
According to the revised requirements, contractors must be approved by Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy and have experience supplying and installing at least 10 132kV substations in Kuwait.
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Sabah Al-Ahmad residential city
Meanwhile, bids were submitted on 16 July for two 132kV underground cable tenders for the South Sabah Al-Ahmad residential development.
PAHW had tendered the contracts in May.
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According to sources, Egytech Cables, a subsidiary of Egypt's Elsewedy Electric was the lowest bidder with an offer of $42.37m.
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Kuwait signs $16bn oil pipeline infrastructure deal27 July 2026
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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has signed a $16bn infrastructure agreement with a consortium comprising Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR to establish a joint venture covering the country’s domestic and export crude oil pipeline network.
Structured as a 20.5-year lease-and-leaseback transaction, the deal covers all 13 of KOC’s crude oil pipelines, spanning about 320 kilometres.
Known as Project Peregrine, the transaction is set to become Kuwait’s largest energy infrastructure partnership and the largest foreign direct investment in the country’s history.
Under the agreement, KOC will retain a 51% ownership stake in the newly formed joint venture, while Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR will collectively own the remaining 49%, with each investor holding an equal share. KOC will maintain full ownership, operation and maintenance of the pipeline system.
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The transaction is expected to generate $7.85bn in upfront proceeds for KOC, supporting Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s capital investment programme, including its goal of increasing crude oil production capacity to 4 million barrels a day by 2035.
KPC deputy chairman and CEO Shaikh Nawaf Saud Al-Sabah said the agreement marks a milestone for Kuwait’s energy sector while preserving state control of critical infrastructure.
“Project Peregrine represents the largest foreign direct investment in Kuwait’s history while preserving full national ownership and operational control,” Al-Sabah said.
The agreement also marks the first time major global institutional investors have committed long-term capital to Kuwait’s midstream infrastructure.
Representatives of Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR said the investment reflects confidence in Kuwait’s energy sector and long-term infrastructure strategy.
The transaction remains subject to customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions.
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Consortiums submit bids for Shagaya zone two plant27 July 2026

At least three consortiums have submitted bids for zone two of the third phase of Kuwait’s Al-Dibdibah power and Al-Shagaya renewable energy project.
The Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects (Kapp) is procuring the 500MW solar photovoltaic (PV) independent power project (IPP) in partnership with Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy (MEWRE).
According to a source, bids were submitted on 26 July. The bidding consortiums are:
- Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar, UAE) / Al-Ghanim International (Kuwait)
- Acwa (Saudi Arabia) / Arabian Engineering Projects Contracting Company (Kuwait)
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Kapp issued a tender to develop the project last November. In October 2025, MEED reported that five consortiums and five individual companies had prequalified to participate in the project.
The Al-Dibdibah power and Al-Shagaya renewable energy phase three zone two project is located within the administrative boundaries of Kuwait’s Jahra governorate, west of Kuwait City.
The winning bidder will design, finance, construct and maintain the project.
The zone two scheme is the fourth renewable energy project to be developed under Kuwait’s public-private partnership programme.
Zone one
Kuwait aims to have a renewable energy installed capacity of 22,100MW by 2030 as part of the 20-year strategy announced in March 2025 and ending in 2050.
In July, MEED reported that a frontrunner had emerged for the Al-Dibdibah and Al-Shagaya phase three, zone one contract following the opening of financial bids.
The phase three, zone one IPP will have a total power generating capacity of 1,100MW.
Similar to the zone two project, EY and DLA Piper, together with DNV, are advising the client on the zone one solar IPP.
Separately, Kuwait-based contractor Power Grid Company recently won a KD48.6m ($158.7m) contract to build a 400kV overhead transmission line linking the Shagaya solar energy generation station with Wafra in southern Kuwait.
The transmission line will connect Shagaya to the Wafra (Z) transformer station and is part of the wider Shagaya masterplan. The contract was awarded by MEWRE, with Power Grid one of three firms that submitted bids last year.
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GCC banks prove resilient amid turmoil27 July 2026

Gulf banks are proving adept at navigating the economic and geopolitical turbulence that comes with operating in the region. These skills have come to the fore this year, as regional lenders draw on stable funding profiles and ample capital and liquidity buffers that protect them from near-term credit risks.
GCC banks’ fundamentals have proved remarkably resilient to the Iran-related turmoil, assuming the intensity of the February-April stage of the military conflict does not resume.
There have not been any significant outflows of external funding. While anecdotal evidence suggests some depositors briefly moved funds out of the region at the start of the war, ratings agency S&P Global notes that their return reflects confidence that the war will prove short-lived.
Funding strength
Metrics for the early part of the year revealed a robust picture. Domestic deposits held up strongly in the first quarter of 2026, total GCC domestic deposits rising by 16.9% in year-on-year terms, compensating for the decline in interbank funding.
State-linked deposits grew at a particularly rapid pace, led by the UAE and Kuwait, which offset decelerating private-sector deposit growth in those countries.
Domestic deposits accelerated in April, a pointer to GCC governments’ proactive stances in shielding their banking systems from undue stress. The inflow of public deposits accelerated quite significantly in this period, although that pace will likely subside as conditions gradually normalise.
Such deposits continue to underpin GCC banks’ wider performances. “Funding and liquidity is generally a strength for the region. Government deposits typically make up 20%-30% of the banking sector deposits. That is really important as these are sticky deposits,” says Redmond Ramsdale, head of Middle East ratings at Fitch Ratings.
Funding and liquidity is generally a strength for the region
Gulf states’ heavy reliance on public sector and government-related deposits has proved valuable in the current environment, anchoring banks’ funding profiles and helping reduce potential risks.
Fund outflows have not materialised to any significant degree. “We had some anecdotal evidence of funds being withdrawn, but they returned in the following weeks,” says Ramsdale.
Solid fundamentals
GCC banks entered the conflict period in strong shape. According to S&P, domestic private sector credit growth in the region remained robust in the first quarter – the annualised growth rate was 8% at the end of March.
Core capital buffers are about 15%-16% – higher still for the top lenders – ensuring total loss-absorbing capacity stays below 9% of equity. Regulatory ratios exceed relevant thresholds, providing a significant buffer, according to ratings agency Moody’s.
“If you look at the whole region, the proportion of the lending book that is non-performing, on a weighted average basis, sits around 2%,” says Badis Shubailat, a senior analyst at Moody’s.
“Against this solid level of asset quality, you have a cushion of provisions for expected losses that more than covers the existing stock of problem loans, which provides a strong first line of defence.”
Then, as a second line of defence, are core capital buffers that remain high by global standards, with levels around 15%-16%. Put together, this explains why the banks are sitting on comfortable positions in terms of loss-absorption capacity.
At the end of Q1 2025, the top 45 GCC banks reported an average Tier 1 capital ratio of 17%, with coverage ratios of 155.8%, according to S&P.
“Credit losses are at historical lows of 50 basis points (bps) for the region, and there are very good provisioning buffers – all of which helps to mitigate the negative consequences of the expected asset quality deterioration,” says Tatjana Lescova, director and lead analyst at S&P.
According to Shubailat, the fact that the conflict impact on GCC banks has not been as pronounced as on other sectors reflects that over the past three years – and until right before the conflict started – the region as a whole, and its banking systems, had demonstrated remarkable resilience. In contrast, major advanced economies were struggling with inflationary pressures and subdued economic growth.
“This was visible in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the two largest economic diversification engines in the region, which happen to also represent more than two-thirds of total banking system assets,” says Shubailat.
Limited exposure
Gulf banks have also been helped by the fact that those economic sectors most impacted by conflict – tourism, hospitality, energy – do not generally form a large part of their collective loans books.
“There will be weaker performance of borrowers in the most obvious affected sectors like infrastructure, tourism, logistics, transport and real estate, but tourism is actually a pretty small exposure for the banks – less than 3% of loan books,” says Ramsdale. “There might be a bit of pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are less able to cope with the pressures than the larger corporates, but again, for banks, SME lending is not very big.”
Banks’ exposure to the real estate and construction sectors is highest in Qatar – 31% of total credit at the end of March – while the exposure in Kuwait stands at 25%, with Saudi Arabia at 16% and Bahrain at 12%, notes S&P. UAE banks have been consistently reducing their exposure to these sectors, down to 13% at the end of March, compared to 21% at year-end 2020.
Moody’s Shubailat says that developers in the UAE sit on solid balance sheets and strong revenue backlogs, while banks’ exposure to the construction sector has declined. “So the quantum is lower, the credit quality of the exposure is better, and the banks are sitting on higher capital and provisioning buffers,” he notes.
Gulf bankers are not resting on their laurels. They know that even if bad loans have been limited, they cannot forestall the possibility of problem exposures further down the road.
“Asset quality deterioration is a risk that we expect to materialise later in the year. This is because of weaker macro expectations, and negative impact on some of the corporate sectors, albeit varying across different GCC countries,” says Lescova.
On average, for the region, S&P expects 20 bps of increases in credit losses for this year. When it comes to asset quality, the regulatory forbearance measures announced by three central banks will help alleviate the impact.
Policy support
Central bank moves have added another layer of support. Forbearance measures from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar central banks have allowed additional headroom.
For example, in mid-March, the Central Bank of the UAE launched a five-pillar resilience package that relaxed capital buffer stipulations, representing more than $272bn in support.
Kuwait eased liquidity requirements, raised maximum lending limits and released a portion of the capital conservation buffer to expand refinancing and credit quality absorption capacity. Qatar, meanwhile, has cut the reserve requirement from 4.5% to 3.5% for deposits.
Forbearance measures from the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar central banks have allowed additional headroom
Such measures were not a response to a banking crisis, says Ramsdale. “Some of the support packages that we have seen coming out of the central banks, in the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, were preventative support measures,” he says.
“They were designed to boost confidence and limit that pass through from temporary deposit volatility. It was not to do with acute banking stress.”
Market confidence
Larger banks are better positioned to cope with straitened economic times. They are generally more geographically diversified beyond their domestic markets, and international operations have historically been a growth driver for them.
“When there is increased market uncertainty, larger banks may benefit from a flight-to-quality movement, with deposits moved away from smaller banks. Based on Q1 results, only a few smaller banks have reported a contraction in the customer deposits,” says Lescova.
The GCC’s largest banks, including Al-Rajhi Banking & Investment Corporation, Saudi National Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Qatar National Bank, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and Emirates NBD, remain highly profitable, although they may not perform as strongly as they would have had the conflict not occurred.
“We already expected some softening in profitability before the conflict, because of the normalisation of the cost of risk upwards from incredibly low levels over the last three years, [which] were driven by a very strong recovery performance from the banks,” says Shubailat.
“In turn, this current situation adds a layer of pressure to the normalising profitability story by increasing provisioning needs in light of the recent economic shocks,” he adds.
Confidence in GCC banks was evident from the outset of the conflict. In early April, Emirates NBD priced a $750m AT1 capital issuance, the first international debt capital markets transaction by a GCC issuer since late February.
“The first ceasefire saw things like private placements start happening again, and that slowly translated into the opening up of public markets.
“Emirates NBD was one of the first banks to open up that market, and we are seeing the largest banks issuing again,” says Ramsdale.
The operating environment for Saudi Arabia is ranked BBB+ – a strong position, all things considered. Ramsdale notes that Riyadh’s reprioritisation of large projects associated with Vision 2030 “means growth will probably be slightly slower in Saudi Arabia”, but adds: “That is actually a good thing, because growth was so strong it was beginning to pressure funding, liquidity and capitalisation.
“Taking off some of that pressure is a positive for banks.”
Growth prospects
Stronger earnings performances will allow banks to bankroll mergers and acquisitions (M&A), building on inorganic routes to growth. Within the past year, the National Bank of Bahrain and Bank of Bahrain & Kuwait (BBK) have agreed to explore a merger, while BBK has also absorbed HSBC’s retail banking business.
Emirates NBD is reported to be looking to acquire HSBC’s business in Turkiye, a country where the Dubai bank already has a presence through its takeover of DenizBank in 2019. It also grew its stake in India’s RBL Bank this year to 60%.
“Certainly the big banks will remain opportunistic over M&A – where the value comes at the right price, then they are interested. And if the big international banks are going to pull out, they tend to have some of the best-quality assets, so you can understand why regional players might be interested in them,” says Ramsdale.
Such moves should provide reassurance that, despite recent challenges, GCC banks are well placed to ride out the remainder of 2026 and resume the positive trajectory that was evident before the Iran war shook the region.
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Saudi Arabia issues RFQ for third round of gas-fired IPPs27 July 2026

Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) has issued the request for qualifications (RFQ) for the third round of its combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) independent power producer (IPP) programme.
According to the documents, the deadline for developers to submit statements of qualification is 16 August.
SPPC expects to issue notices of prequalification on 11 September, after which request for proposals documents will be issued to qualified applicants.
The latest date for the submission of clarification questions is 9 August.
The RFQ covers future CCGT IPPs, although the document does not specify the number, locations or capacities of the projects.
Earlier in July, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia had begun qualification for CCGT plants to be built with provision for future carbon capture units.
The projects will comprise new CCGT plants developed on a build-own-operate basis. Each project will be implemented through a special-purpose project company wholly owned by the successful bidder.
The project companies will sell the entire capacity and output of the plants to SPPC under 25-year power-purchase agreements starting from the respective commercial operation dates. SPPC will be responsible for dispatching electricity from the plants.
The plants will use advanced H-class or J-class gas turbine technology. Each IPP is expected to comprise two or three gas turbine generators, corresponding heat recovery steam generators with duct firing, and one or two steam turbine generators.
Natural gas will be the primary fuel, with diesel used as a backup. SPPC will be responsible for supplying both fuels under the power-purchase agreements.
CCGT IPP programme
SPPC said the procurement marks the next stage of its CCGT IPP programme.
The first four projects comprise Taiba 1, Taiba 2, Qassim 1 and Qassim 2, with a combined capacity of 7,200MW.
The second group comprises Rumah 1, Rumah 2, Nairyah 1 and Nairyah 2, also with a combined capacity of 7,200MW.
All eight plants are under construction, with Qassim 1 and Taiba 1 expected to reach commissioning in 2028.
Developers that were prequalified as financial or technical members for the Rumah and Nairyah projects can request to maintain the same qualification for the upcoming CCGT projects. They must submit the request and updated financial information by the 16 August deadline.
For new applicants, financial members must have reached financial close on at least two non-recourse IPP, IWPP, IWP or ISTP projects since January 2010. At least one must have involved senior debt of $500m or more. Applicants must also have a minimum net worth of $350m.
Technical members must demonstrate development experience on at least two conventional energy IPPs with a combined capacity of 2,000MW since January 2016. They must also have ownership experience on at least two such projects totalling 3,000MW and relevant operations and maintenance experience.
US/India-based Synergy Consulting is the financial adviser for the procurement, Germany’s Fichtner is the technical adviser and UK-headquartered Eversheds Sutherland is the legal adviser.
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