meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Mena economies living dangerously

27 December 2023

 

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again

Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.

Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year.  Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.

The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies. 

GDP growth

The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.

Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost. 

Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.

As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024. 

Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.

“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert. 

“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.” 

In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.

Government spending

Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power. 

Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget.  This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects. 

That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024. 

There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.

For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years. 

The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible. 

“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”

El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”

Regional trade

There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.

The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.

“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”

Near-term challenges

While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown. 

Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly. 

Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country 

Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures. 

Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows. 

The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households. 

A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms.  Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.  

Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre. 

Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza. 

Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.

Can the Gulf build back better?

The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. 

Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. 

“The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.”   

It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED.

“One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. 

“We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen.  But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.”

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11360413/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Borouge International appoints chief financial officer

    20 April 2026

    Newly formed chemicals giant Borouge Group International AG (Borouge International) has appointed Patrick Jany as chief financial officer (CFO). He will take office from 1 May, until which time Daniel Turnheim will continue to serve as interim CFO.

    Jany joins Borouge International with more than three decades of international finance leadership across industrial, logistics and chemical businesses. “With 20 years’ CFO experience in publicly listed companies, he brings deep financial expertise and a disciplined approach to capital management,” Borouge International said in a statement.

    Most recently, Jany served as executive vice-president and CFO of Danish shipping company A P Moller-Maersk, where he joined the executive board in 2020 and played a central role in strengthening financial discipline, portfolio management and value creation during a period of major strategic transformation.

    Prior to Maersk, he spent 25 years at Swiss specialty chemicals company Clariant AG, holding a range of senior finance, general management and corporate development roles across Europe, Asia and the Americas, eventually becoming group CFO. Earlier in his career, he held finance leadership roles at Sandoz AG, Clariant’s predecessor.

    Jany holds a Master of Business Administration degree from ESCP Business School.

    “As CFO, he will be part of a strong management team, leading and shaping Borouge International into a global industrial leader with scale, reach and financial discipline, supporting its long-term growth ambitions,” the company said in its statement.

    Chemicals giant

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (Adnoc Group) overseas investment arm XRG and Austrian energy major OMV completed the creation of Borouge International, a global chemicals giant with the fourth-largest polyolefins production capacity in the world, on 31 March.

    The new entity was formed by the merger of Adnoc Group and OMV’s respective shareholdings in Abu Dhabi chemicals producer Borouge and Austria-based Borealis, as well as the acquisition of Canada-based Nova Chemicals.

    Adnoc and OMV started the transaction to merge their interests in Borouge and Borealis, as well as acquire Nova Chemicals, in March last year. In July, Adnoc announced it would transfer its stake in Borouge International to XRG upon completion of the transaction.

    Borouge International is headquartered and tax-domiciled in Austria, with regional headquarters in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The new company will operate corporate hubs across North America, Europe and Asia, with innovation centres in the UAE, Austria, Canada, Finland and Sweden.

    Financial prospects

    Borouge International will benefit from a superior resilient margin profile and well over $500m in identified earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (ebitda) run-rate synergies per annum, with 75% expected to be realised within the first three years, XRG said at the time of creation of the entity.

    “The company’s global reach, combined with long-term shareholders and a robust capital structure, will deliver resilience throughout the business cycle and an enhanced ability to drive consistent performance and sustainable value for shareholders,” XRG said in its statement.

    The new company has also secured credit ratings of A (Negative) / Baa1 (Stable) / A- (Stable) ratings from S&P, Moody’s and Fitch, respectively, “confirming its robust financial position and capital structure and ability to access a range of long-term financing options”.

    “XRG and OMV are committed to maintaining investment-grade credit ratings for Borouge International,” they said.

    Additionally, Adnoc and OMV plan to tender an offer to convert Borouge Plc shares to Borouge International AG shares, thereby “creating a simplified structure that will enable value creation from the new global growth platform”.

    The tender offer is expected to take place in 2027, subject to market conditions and approval by the UAE Capital Market Authority, with its timing “aligning with the new company’s future equity raise, to maximise value for all shareholders”.

    Until then, Borouge International will be privately held, and Borouge Plc shares will remain listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX). The recently received credit ratings factor in the impact and flexibility on timing of both the future equity raise and the planned acquisition of Borouge 4 at cost by Borouge International.

    Borouge International also recently announced a dividend payment of $1.32bn for 2025, “reflecting the company’s strong operational performance and record sales”.

    The final shareholder-approved dividend payment for 2025 amounts to $658m (8.1 fils per share), bringing the total 2025 dividend to approximately $1.32bn (16.2 fils per share). The dividend will be paid on or around 7 May to all shareholders of record as of 17 April.

    Including this dividend, Borouge Plc will have distributed $4.89bn in dividends since listing, one of the largest payout levels on the ADX over this period.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16476909/main.gif
    Indrajit Sen
  • Kuwait LNG project expected to be worth about $200m

    20 April 2026

     

    The planned Kuwaiti project to develop a reliquefaction unit at the Al-Zour LNG import terminal is expected to be worth about $200m, according to industry sources.

    The client on the project is state-owned Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company (Kipic).

    The project is focused on the development of a boil-off-gas unit at the import terminal, according to a report in Kuwait’s Al-Anba newspaper.

    The project scope includes engineering, procurement and construction works, along with pre-commissioning, commissioning and performance testing services.

    The list of prequalified companies is:

    • Fluor (US)
    • GS Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)
    • Larsen & Toubro (India)
    • Hyundai Engineering (South Korea)
    • CTCI Corporation (Taiwan)
    • Daewoo Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Hyundai Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Saipem (Italy)
    • Samsung Engineering (South Korea)
    • Sinopec Engineering (China)
    • JGC Holdings (Japan)
    • KBR (US)
    • China National Petroleum Corporation (China)
    • Technip (France)

    Kuwait’s LNG import terminal is currently not operating due to disruption caused by the US and Israel’s war with Iran.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16445370/main1228.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Saudi Arabia’s Misk tenders residential package

    17 April 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman Foundation (Misk Foundation) has floated two tenders for the construction of a residential community in District 5 of Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Nonprofit City in Riyadh.

    The first tender is split into two packages, one that covers the construction of 237 villas and the other covering 223.

    The second tender covers the construction of a community centre, swimming pool, mosque and school.

    The bid submission deadline for both tenders is 27 April.

    Misk Foundation is jointly developing the project in collaboration with local real estate developer Kinan.

    The estimated SR900m ($240m) project will span an area of about 121,692 square metres.

    In March 2022, the Misk Foundation released the masterplan for Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Nonprofit City.

    Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud said in November 2021 that the Misk Foundation development in Riyadh will be the world’s first non-profit city.

    “Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Nonprofit City, which implements the digital twin model, will host academies; colleges; Misk schools; a conference centre; a science museum; and a creative centre offering a space to support the ambitions of innovators in sciences and new-generation technology, such as AI [artificial intelligence], IoT [Internet of Things] and robotics,” he said.  

    “It will also feature an arts academy and art gallery, a performing arts theatre, a play area, a cooking academy and an integrated residential complex.

    “In addition, the city will host venture capital firms and investors to support and incubate innovative enterprises to drive community contributions from around the world.”

    The consultants working on the project include Germany’s Albert Speer + Partner as master planner and architect, and UK-based Buro Happold as the engineer. The project manager for the first phase of construction is UK-based Mace.

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16440697/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saipem wins $400m of Safaniya field work from Aramco

    17 April 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Italian contractor Saipem has announced winning two offshore engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) contracts in Saudi Arabia, worth approximately $400m, which represent Saudi Aramco’s next expansion phase of the Safaniya offshore oil field development.

    MEED recently reported that Aramco had selected Saipem for the two contracts – numbers 154 and 155 on its Contract Release and Purchase Order (CRPO) system.

    Fabrication activities for the two contracts will be executed at Saipem’s Saudi fabrication yard in Dammam, Saipem Taqa Al-Rushaid Fabricators Company, the Milan-listed company said in its statement.

    Prior to winning the contracts for CRPOs 154 and 155, Saipem also secured the contract for CRPO 156, valued at about $500m, which forms the third package in Aramco’s latest Safaniya expansion phase.

    Aramco issued the three CRPOs to its Long-Term Agreement (LTA) pool of offshore contractors in February last year, with an initial bid submission deadline of 31 July. Aramco later extended the deadline to 28 August and then again to 31 August, with LTA contractors submitting bids on that date.

    The brief scope of EPCI work on the three tenders is as follows:

    CRPO 154:

    EPCI of a water injection tie-in platform; two production deck modules (PDMs)/wellhead platforms; approximately 5 kilometres (km) of associated pipeline, with diameters of 24 inches, and approximately 15km of 15kV cables at Safaniya; hook-ups; and subsea valve skids.

    CRPO 155:

    EPCI of four PDMs; intra-field and main trunklines to shore; and jackets.

    CRPO 156:

    EPCI of a 48-inch trunkline, covering a distance of about 65km offshore and 12km onshore, from the Safaniya offshore oil field to the onshore processing facility; and associated structures such as subsea hook-ups.

    The Safaniya field is the world’s largest offshore oil field, with a production capacity of nearly 1.2 million barrels a day. Discovered in 1951, the field is located in the Gulf waters, approximately 265km north of Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16439869/main5806.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Ora Developers adds land bank to its Bayn masterplan

    17 April 2026

    Egyptian firm Ora Developers has signed a land acquisition agreement with Abu Dhabi-based developer Modon Holding to acquire an additional 4.8 million square metres (sq m) of land in the Ghantoot area between Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

    Ora Developers said that the land acquisition will increase the existing Bayn masterplan from 4.8 million sq m to 9.6 million sq m.

    The firm added that the total investment in the masterplan upon completion is expected to reach AED30bn ($8bn).

    In January, Ora Developers appointed six engineering consultancies to lead the development of the first phase of its Bayn residential community project.

    The developer appointed UK-based firm Mace to lead the overall project management.

    Canadian firm WSP will serve as the masterplan, infrastructure, landscape and water bodies design consultant, as reported by MEED in May last year.

    Another US firm, Aecom, will provide construction supervision services.

    Hong Kong’s 10 Design is the project’s architectural concept design consultant.

    Local firm Dewan Architects & Engineers is the project’s design consultant and architect of record.

    The UK’s Currie & Brown is the cost consultant.

    The first phase will offer 805 villas and townhouses, and the project is expected to be completed in 2028.

    The project will also include a neighbourhood park, sports facilities, a water park, a five-star hotel and a shopping mall.

    In December last year, Abu Dhabi government-owned contractor NMDC Group won a AED142m ($39m) contract from Ora Developers.

    The contract scope covers the execution of enabling works on the Bayn masterplan.

    The main construction works on the project's first phase are expected to begin in the second quarter of this year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16439214/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal