Meed | Mena economies living dangerously

Mena economies living dangerously

27 December 2023

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again

Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.

Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year. Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.

The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies.

GDP growth

The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.

Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost.

Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.

As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024.

Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.

“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert.

“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.”

In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.

Government spending

Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power.

Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget. This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects.

That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024.

There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.

For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years.

The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible.

“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”

El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”

Regional trade

There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.

The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.

“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”

Near-term challenges

While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown.

Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly.

Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country

Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures.

Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows.

The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households.

A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms. Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.

Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre.

Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza.

Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.

Can the Gulf build back better?

The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency.

Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce.

“The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.”

It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED.

“One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says.

“We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen. But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.”

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James Gavin

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Houthi escalation targets Saudi airports
12 October 2026

Yemen’s Houthis have placed Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation infrastructure at the centre of their campaign against the kingdom. Two strikes on King Khalid International airport in Riyadh over the weekend killed 13 people and injured 320.

The deadlier attack hit a passenger terminal on the afternoon of 10 October. The General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca) said it killed 12 people, including four Saudi citizens, and injured 309. Airport operations were suspended pending a damage assessment.

A second strike hit Terminal 4 on the afternoon of 11 October, sparking a fire that killed a Pakistani resident and injured 11 others, according to Gaca. The Saudi-led coalition reported intercepting a cruise missile near the airport that afternoon. Gaca also reported an attack on King Fahd International airport in Dammam that evening, following a coalition report of a projectile falling near the facility the previous night.

The weekend strikes followed attacks on Abha International airport on 6 October and on King Khalid International airport on 7 and 8 October, the last of which included a strike on a Saudia aircraft. Gaca figures put the toll from the week’s attacks on Saudi airports at 19 dead and more than 350 injured.

The Houthis said they would continue operations inside the kingdom and that all Saudi airports were potential targets, with the exception of those serving the holy cities. The group says it is acting in response to Riyadh’s support for Yemeni government forces and a Saudi air strike on Sanaa airport. It has also claimed attacks on Saudi oil facilities, which Saudi authorities have not confirmed.

Aviation exposure

The attacks strike a sector central to the kingdom’s diversification plans. King Khalid International airport’s existing terminals are to be absorbed into King Salman International airport (KSIA), a 57-square-kilometre development with six parallel runways targeting a capacity of 120 million passengers by 2030 and 185 million by 2050.

Procurement on KSIA has gathered pace this year. In July, a joint venture of China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and Dammam-based Mofarreh AlHarbi & Partners won an estimated SR800m ($213m) contract for enabling and substructure works on Terminal 6, which will add capacity for 40 million passengers. Turkish contractor IC Ictas and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting recently secured a SR800m ($213m) contract for the airport’s Private Aviation Terminal.

Government-owned Saudi Royal Aviation set 8 October as the bid deadline for an estimated SR3bn ($800m) contract to build an aviation complex within the KSIA masterplan, the same day the Houthis struck King Khalid International airport and a Saudia aircraft.

Airlines have already adjusted. Flydubai cancelled flights to Riyadh and Yanbu up to 10 October and to Abha up to 11 October, and Etihad Airways reported extended delays on its Abu Dhabi to Riyadh service after the airport closed on 8 October. The UK Foreign Office has advised against all travel to areas within 10km of the Yemeni border.

Market reaction

The Saudi stock market’s response has been muted so far. The Tadawul main index fell 15.54 points to close at 10,360.74 on 11 October, the first trading session after the Saturday attack, with turnover of SR2.6bn ($693m). The session closed before the second strike on King Khalid International airport and the attack on Dammam, and Monday’s trading will be the first to reflect the full weekend.

The weekend also brought a separate maritime incident. UK Maritime Trade Operations said an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on 11 October, with its crew reported safe.

Diplomatic response

The coalition described the 10 October attack as a war crime and said it would respond decisively. It said on 10 October that it had destroyed 136 military targets in Houthi-controlled areas and was working to dismantle the group’s ballistic missile network.

Egypt, Pakistan and Turkiye joined Saudi Arabia in an R4 group statement condemning the attacks and supporting measures taken by the kingdom in response. The Arab League also voiced its support for Saudi Arabia. On 11 October, Iran’s foreign minister spoke by telephone with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal Bin Farhan, to discuss the escalation. The US and UK have also signalled the possibility of further support for the kingdom.

The escalation comes against the backdrop of the regional conflict, which has drawn Saudi Arabia into a renewed Yemen front after several years of relative calm following the 2022 ceasefire. The extent of the damage at King Khalid International airport, which Gaca is still assessing, and the speed at which international carriers resume full schedules will determine how far the attacks disrupt the kingdom’s aviation programme.

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Colin Foreman
Egypt and Saudi Arabia sign oil and gas deal
12 October 2026

Egypt and Saudi Arabia have signed an agreement to strengthen cooperation in the oil, natural gas and petrochemicals sectors, according to a statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

The memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed in Riyadh by Karim Badawi, Egypt’s minister of petroleum and mineral resources, and Abdulaziz Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s minister of energy.

Under the agreement, both sides will enhance cooperation in trading, transporting, storing and distributing crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas.

They will also expand cooperation on developing the infrastructure and logistics services that support these activities.

In its statement, Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources said: “These efforts will contribute to improving energy market efficiency, enhancing the resilience and reliability of supply chains, and strengthening energy security.”

The MoU also provides for expanded cooperation in exchanging expertise and best practices in operating and developing fuel stations, as well as in transporting and tracking petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas cylinders.

Additionally, the agreement seeks to explore investment opportunities in joint projects and promote exports.

The latest agreement comes as Egypt becomes an increasingly important export route for Saudi Arabia.

Due to disruptions and security risks affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been redirecting crude exports via its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

Meanwhile, the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, at the southern end of the Red Sea, has also become a security concern due to military activity in Yemen. Egypt offers an alternative route through the Sumed pipeline, which runs from Ain Sokhna on the Red Sea to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean.

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Wil Crisp
JGC yet to return evacuated workers to Basra refinery
12 October 2026
Japan’s JGC has yet to bring evacuated workers back to the Basra refinery project in Iraq, according to industry sources.

JGC evacuated its personnel from the site in the southern oil hub of Basra following the start of the regional conflict on 28 February, when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

The evacuation halted work on the project, which was in its final construction stage.

On 14 August 2026, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil announced that it had signed an agreement with JGC to resume work on the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) project at Basra refinery.

One source said: “Even though the agreement to bring the evacuated workers back was signed about two months ago, there is still no sign of the evacuated workers on the project site.

“It is possible that they will return soon, but it is hard to tell what will happen next in the current security environment.”

Earlier this month, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil said it met with Japanese officials to discuss plans to commission the FCC unit under the Basra refinery upgrade project.

The statement did not say when the evacuated JGC workers would return to the project site.

Strategic project

Iraq’s state-owned South Refineries Company (SRC) sent JGC notice of the main contract award for the FCC package of the Basra refinery upgrade project in August 2020.

JGC was awarded the contract in consortium with South Korea’s Hyundai E&C.

The official contract signing ceremony was held in Baghdad on 1 October 2020.

The contract awarded to JGC, which uses the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning model, was worth $3.78bn.

The FCC package is part of a broader project to upgrade the Basra refinery.

The project site is located about 12 kilometres east of Iraq’s southern city of Basra.

The wider upgrade project involves installing new facilities on land adjacent to the existing Basra refinery, including a vacuum distillation unit and a diesel desulphurisation unit.

In April 2021, France’s Axens won a contract in Iraq to provide four process technologies to SRC for the Basra refinery upgrade project.

The technologies that SRC selected are:
- Diesel hydrotreatment unit (Prime-D)
- Vacuum gasoil (VGO) hydrotreating unit
- VGO fluid catalytic cracker unit
- Oligomerisation unit (polynaphtha)
In addition, Axens is providing catalysts and adsorbents, proprietary equipment, training and technical services.

MEED’s latest report on Iraq includes:

> COMMENT: Iraq’s reform window narrows
> GOVERNMENT: Al-Zaidi takes Iraq’s premiership under US shadow
> BANKING: Financial challenge tests Iraq’s resolve
> ECONOMY: Iraq enters era of resilience, reform and rising risks
> OIL & GAS: Iraqi oil and gas sector in crisis
> POWER & WATER: Focus shifts to delivery of Iraq utilities expansion
> CONSTRUCTION: Momentum builds in Iraq’s post-war construction sector

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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Wil Crisp

Contractors prepare Jordan stadium prequalification

12 October 2026

Contractors are preparing to submit prequalification statements on 14 October for a contract to build Jordan’s Al-Hussein Bin Abdullah II International Stadium, located east of the capital, Amman.

The project is part of the first phase of the Amra City development masterplan and is being implemented by Jordan Cities & Facilities Development Company, a Jordan Investment Fund-owned company.

Main works are expected to begin early next year, with the stadium slated for completion in 2029.

The project will cover about 1 million square metres, and the stadium will seat 50,000 spectators.

The stadium is being built within the Amra City development, which is located about 40 kilometres (km) from downtown Amman and 35km from Zarqa and Queen Alia International airport.

MEED reported that preliminary excavation and site preparation began in June.

The project forms part of Jordan’s Economic Modernisation Vision (EMV) 2023-25.

The EMV – Amman’s flagship reform programme – aims to increase real income per capita by an average of 3% annually, create 1 million jobs and more than double the country’s GDP over the next decade.

The strategy envisages a leading role for the private sector, which is expected to account for 73% of the estimated $58.8bn investment required.

READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> AGENDA: Oxagon takes centre stage at Neom

> MARKET FOCUS: Saudi projects hold steady

> INDUSTRY REPORT: MEED’s 2026 GCC power developer ranking

> POWER: AI is creating a grid capacity problem

> LEGAL: What IFAD’s wind-down means for Gulf commodity markets

> OIL: Oil companies focus on North Africa amid Hormuz crisis

> LEADERSHIP: The future city does not need to hang above the ground

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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Yasir Iqbal

Abu Dhabi plans Mussafah road upgrades

12 October 2026

Abu Dhabi’s Department of Municipalities and Transport (DMT) has announced plans to upgrade roads in Mussafah, improving links between the industrial area, Mohamed Bin Zayed City and Zayed City.

The scheme covers about 13 kilometres of roads on the E30 and 8th Street. It aims to reduce congestion, improve road safety and cut journey times.

The works include a new three-lane highway in each direction along 8th Street, with parallel three-lane service roads on both sides providing access to local businesses and facilities.

The upgraded corridor is expected to accommodate up to 4,000 vehicles an hour.

Other works include upgrades to four E30 interchanges, improved links to 8th Street and the E20, and modifications to nine junctions.

The DMT also plans to build two bridges connecting Mussafah and Mohamed Bin Zayed City, along with a pedestrian bridge.

Abu Dhabi is planning major investments to upgrade its road network across the emirate.

Last week, it disclosed plans for a major new transport corridor in the capital, comprising a 37km coastal route linking Al-Hudayriyat Island with the E11 at Al-Nouf.

It is planned to have three lanes in each direction and will include a tunnel, about 7km of marine bridges and about 4km of causeways.

The scheme will provide a direct connection between Al-Dhafra, Al-Hudayriyat Island and Abu Dhabi Island via Halat Al-Bahrani, Al-Futaisi and Al-Aryam islands.