Mena economies living dangerously
27 December 2023

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again
Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.
Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year. Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.
The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies.
GDP growth
The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.
Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost.
Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.
As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024.
Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.
“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert.
“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.”
In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.
Government spending
Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power.
Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget. This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects.
That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024.
There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.
For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years.
The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible.
“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”
El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”
Regional trade
There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.
The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.
“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”
Near-term challenges
While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown.
Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly.
Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country
Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures.
Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows.
The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households.
A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms. Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.
Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre.
Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza.
Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.
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Can the Gulf build back better? The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. “The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.” It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED. “One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. “We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen. But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.” |
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Even so, Iraq’s projects market is not starting from a blank slate. By the end of March 2026, almost $120bn of contracts were in execution, with a further $300.4bn in the broader pipeline. The scale of that opportunity is underpinned by enduring reconstruction requirements, urgent energy-sector needs and a policy push to translate oil wealth into long-lived productive assets.
Reconstruction needs
Nearly a decade after the official end of the Islamic State conflict, Iraq’s reconstruction gap remains substantial. Estimates put the shortfall at about $88bn, reflecting the long tail of damage to housing, utilities, public buildings and transport links. Southern and central regions dominate the live pipeline, largely because they sit close to Iraq’s oil heartlands. Basra, in particular, is pivotal, anchoring major upstream activity and vital export infrastructure.
At the policy level, Iraq Vision 2030 signals a long-term ambition to diversify into tourism, agriculture, industry and digital transformation. The government’s immediate delivery vehicle is the National Development Plan (NDP) 2024-28, which commits more than $17bn a year in capital expenditure and prioritises energy, transport, housing and water infrastructure. This shift is reinforced by Iraq’s Green Growth Framework (2026), indicating that future procurement may place greater weight on efficiency, emissions reduction and climate resilience.
Macro risk
Despite policy ambition, the most immediate determinant of Iraq’s fiscal room is the oil price. A $10-a-barrel drop can reduce government revenue by an estimated $7bn-$9bn annually. Such sensitivity matters because infrastructure spending is still largely funded by the public purse. Oil price swings affect project awards, payment cycles and the government’s willingness to assume up-front capex obligations.
Iraq’s execution environment continues to be defined by bureaucratic delays, unclear land titles and opaque procurement processes. These factors can add 12-24 months to average delivery timelines. Nevertheless, there are signs of adaptation. PPP legislation is advancing, and developer-led models are gaining traction in large housing programmes. Furthermore, there is a growing reliance on international project management consultancy (PMC) firms—such as Hill International, Worley, and AtkinsRealis—to bridge capacity gaps and improve governance, cost control and scheduling.
Hydrocarbon driver
Oil and gas upstream remains the single largest driver of capital expenditure. Major developments, including the Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP) and Mansouriya, sit alongside a push to reduce gas flaring and expand downstream processing. The objective is to sustain export revenues while improving domestic fuel availability.
The power sector is even more urgent. Iraq faces an estimated 8-10GW generation shortfall, which keeps electricity supply at the centre of political risk. This gap is driving rapid procurement of generation capacity and grid upgrade contracts. Beyond traditional infrastructure, Iraq is also moving on digital adoption. Smart city pilots and fibre rollouts are attracting regional technology investors, while AI-enabled data centre projects are beginning to emerge.
Investment targets
Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains below $3bn a year, a low figure relative to market size. The most active investors outside the oil sector include the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. To convert interest into deals, the National Investment Commission (NIC) is pursuing streamlined licensing and investor-protection reforms. A “one-stop shop” approach has reportedly reduced registration timelines for foreign investors from months to weeks in key sectors.
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Conflict premium
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Qiddiya seeks firms for light rail transit system11 May 2026

Saudi gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) has requested contractors to express interest in a contract to design and build the first phase of the light rail transit system at Qiddiya Entertainment City.
The notice was issued on 5 May, with firms given until 20 June to submit expressions of interest.
The project, also known as the Primary Urban Axis, comprises a 22-kilometre automated, driverless rail line as part of its first phase.
The contract scope includes about 16 stations – 11 elevated and five underground – along with 8km of tunnels, viaducts and other associated structures. It covers all civil, architectural, and mechanical, electrical and plumbing works.
Stations will be located at Resort Core East Village, Grand Central Station, Anime Hub Integrated Station and Primary Urban Axis 1 & 2 Hub Station.
A subsequent phase will extend the railway network by a further 11km.
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Separately, QIC, the Royal Commission for Riyadh City and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP received prequalification statements from firms on 30 April for the public-private partnership (PPP) package of the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh. This follows submission of prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing package on 16 April, as previously reported by MEED.
The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will connect King Salman International airport and the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) with Qiddiya City. The line will operate at up to 250 kilometres per hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.
Contractors are also preparing bids for a 13 May deadline for a contract covering new infrastructure works at Qiddiya Entertainment City. The scope includes two infrastructure development packages for District 0, including the construction of four event park-and-ride facilities.
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QIC officially opened the Six Flags theme park to the public in December last year.
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Contractors submit bids for Saudi gas processing plant project8 May 2026

Contractors have submitted bids to Saudi Aramco subsidiary Aramco Gulf Operations Company (AGOC) for a project to build an onshore gas processing plant in Saudi Arabia’s Khafji that will draw and process gas from the Dorra offshore gas field, located in waters of the Saudi-Kuwait Neutral Zone.
MEED previously reported that AGOC had divided the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) on the Khafji gas plant project into seven packages, and issued the main tenders for those last year.
Contractors were initially set deadlines of 24 October for technical bid submissions and 9 November for commercial bids. AGOC later extended the bid submission deadline to 22 December, and then until 22 April. A final deadline of 30 April was set, with contractors submitting bids by that date, according to sources.
The seven EPC packages cover works including open-art and licensed process facilities, pipelines, industrial support infrastructure, site preparation, overhead transmission lines, power supply systems and main operational and administrative buildings, with their breakdown as follows:
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- Package 2 – Licensed facilities
- Package 3 – Industrial support facilities
- Package 4 – Pipelines
- Package 5 – Site preparation
- Package 6 – Overhead transmission lines plus power supply (from Saudi Electricity Company)
- Package 7 – Headquarters complex
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been pressing ahead with their plan to jointly produce 1 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas from the Dorra gas field.
The two countries have been producing oil from the Neutral Zone – primarily from the onshore Wafra field and offshore Khafji field – since at least the 1950s. With a growing need to increase natural gas production, they have been working to exploit the Dorra offshore field, understood to be the only gas field in the Neutral Zone.
Discovered in 1965, the Dorra gas field is estimated to hold 20 trillion cubic metres of gas and 310 million barrels of oil.
The Khafji gas plant project is one of three multibillion-dollar projects launched by subsidiaries of Saudi Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) to produce and process gas from the Dorra field that has advanced in recent months.
Dorra field facilities project
Al-Khafji Joint Operations (KJO), which is jointly owned by AGOC and KPC subsidiary Kuwait Gulf Oil Company (KGOC), has divided the scope of work on the Dorra field facilities project into four EPC packages – three offshore and one onshore.
India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH) won the contract for package one of the Dorra facilities project, which covers the EPC of seven offshore jackets and the laying of intra-field pipelines. The contract awarded by KJO to L&TEH is estimated to be valued at $140m-$150m, MEED reported in October.
Additionally, Italian, Indian and Spanish contractors have emerged as the lowest bidders for the other three EPC packages that form part of the Dorra facilities project.
A consortium of Italian contractor Saipem and L&TEH is understood to have submitted the lowest bid for offshore packages 2A and 2B, according to sources. The only other consortium understood to have submitted bids for packages 2A and 2B comprises Abu Dhabi-based NMDC Energy and South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries.
The EPC scope of work for package 2A includes Dorra gas field wellhead topsides, flowlines and umbilicals. Package 2B involves the central gathering platform complex, export pipelines and cables.
Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas is understood to have emerged as the lowest bidder for onshore package three, sources told MEED. Package three covers the EPC of onshore gas processing facilities.
KGOC onshore processing facilities
The third component of the overall Dorra gas field development programme is a planned onshore gas processing facility to be built in Kuwait, which has been undertaken by KGOC.
KGOC had been progressing with the front-end engineering and design (feed) work on the project, before the destabilising impact of the US-Israel conflict with Iran compelled the operator to put the project on hold, MEED reported in April.
The proposed facility, estimated to be worth $3.3bn, will receive gas from a pipeline from the Dorra offshore field, which is being separately developed by KJO. The complex will have the capacity to process up to 632 million cf/d of gas and 88.9 million barrels a day of condensates from the Dorra field.
The facility will be located near the Al-Zour refinery, owned by another KPC subsidiary, Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company.
A 700,000-square-metre plot has been allocated next to the Al-Zour refinery for the gas processing facility and discussions regarding survey work are ongoing. The site could require shoring, backfilling and dewatering.
The onshore gas processing plant will also supply surplus gas to KPC’s upstream business, Kuwait Oil Company, for possible injection into its oil fields.
Additionally, KGOC plans to award licensed technology contracts to US-based Honeywell UOP and Shell subsidiary Shell Catalysts & Technologies for the plant’s acid gas removal unit and sulphur recovery unit, respectively.
France-based Technip Energies has carried out a concept study and feed work on the entire Dorra gas field development programme.
Progress has been hampered by a dispute over ownership of the Dorra gas field. Iran, which refers to the field as Arash, claims it partially extends into Iranian territory and asserts that Tehran should be a stakeholder in its development. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia maintain that the field lies entirely within their jointly administered Neutral Zone – also known as the Divided Zone – and that Iran has no legal basis for its claim.
In February 2024, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia reiterated their claim to the Dorra field in a joint statement issued during an official meeting in Riyadh between Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud.
Since that show of strength and unity, projects to produce and process gas from the Dorra field have gained momentum.
READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFGlobal energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> REGIONAL LNG: War undermines business case for Middle East LNG> CAPITAL MARKETS: Damage avoidance frames debt issuance> MARKET FOCUS: Conflict tests UAE diversificationTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16734353/main5834.jpg -
Teams prepare bids for Riyadh East sewage treatment plant8 May 2026

At least six consortiums are preparing to submit bids for Saudi Arabia's Riyadh East independent sewage treatment plant (ISTP) project, according to sources.
The project will be developed under a build‑own‑operate‑transfer model with a 25‑year concession term.
The plant will have a treatment capacity of 200,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d) in its first phase, expanding to 500,000 cm/d in the second phase.
MEED understands that the following consortiums are in discussions to submit bids for the project, which has a recently extended bid submission deadline of 30 June:
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- Alkhorayef (Saudi Arabia) / GS Inima (Spain)
- EtihadWE (UAE) / Metito (UAE)
- Veolia (France) / AlJomaih Energy & Water (Saudi Arabia)
- Miahona (Saudi Arabia) / Marafiq (Saudi Arabia)
In December 2025, a group comprising Metito, EtihadWE and SkyBridge was selected as the preferred bidder for the Hadda ISTP project. Miahona, Marafiq Company and Buhur for Investment was selected as the reserved bidder.
That same month, the Miahona-led consortium was selected as preferred bidder for the Arana ISTP and the Metito-led consortium was selected as the reserved bidder. Both projects have yet to reach financial close.
The Riyadh East, Hadda and Arana ISTPs are being undertaken by state water offtaker Sharakat, formerly Saudi Water Partnership Company, in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP.
In 2024, Sharakat prequalified 53 companies that could bid for the Riyadh East ISTP, part of seven planned ISTP projects it said it would procure between 2024 and 2026. The request for proposals was issued last October.
WSP is the technical adviser and KPMG Middle East is the lead and financial adviser on the project.
The targeted commercial operation date for the facility is 2029.
ISTP plans
According to Sharakat’s recent seven-year statement, it has identified six additional large ISTPs in the development pipeline.
These are:
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The company is also pursuing a nationwide small sewage treatment plant programme covering about 139 smaller ISTPs grouped into seven clusters.
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Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
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Saudi Arabia tenders Jeddah-Mecca highway PPP8 May 2026

Saudi Arabia’s Roads General Authority (RGA) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) have tendered the contract for the development of the Jeddah-Mecca highway project.
The tender was issued on 19 April, with a bid submission deadline of 19 August.
The scope of the tender is split into two sections: development of motor service areas (MSA) and highway services.
Under the MSA component, the company will develop, permit, finance, design, engineer, procure, construct, complete, test, commission, insure, operate and maintain three MSAs along the highway.
The contract term is 25 years, including two years of the construction period.
Each MSA plot will cover 34,500 square metres and will include facilities such as fuel stations, electric vehicle charging, truck services, tyre and oil change, car wash and repair, retail and food outlets, ATMs, restrooms, mosques, parking, landscaping and other associated utilities.
The highway services component will include insurance, operation and maintenance of highway assets for 10 years.
The 64-kilometre (km) Jeddah-Mecca highway has four lanes in each direction. The construction works on 51km are complete, while the rest is under construction and scheduled for completion in 2027.
In March, the RGA and NCP prequalified three bidders to develop the project. These were:
- Algihaz Holding / ICA Construction (local/Turkiye)
- Lamar Holding / Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation (Bahrain/China)
- Mada International Holding (local)
The expression of interest notice for the project was first issued in October 2024, as MEED reported.
The project is one of four planned highway schemes in the kingdom’s privatisation and public-private partnership (P&PPP) pipeline.
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> REGIONAL LNG: War undermines business case for Middle East LNG> CAPITAL MARKETS: Damage avoidance frames debt issuance> MARKET FOCUS: Conflict tests UAE diversificationTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16731199/main.jpg
