meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Mena economies living dangerously

27 December 2023

 

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again

Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.

Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year.  Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.

The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies. 

GDP growth

The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.

Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost. 

Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.

As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024. 

Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.

“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert. 

“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.” 

In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.

Government spending

Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power. 

Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget.  This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects. 

That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024. 

There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.

For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years. 

The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible. 

“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”

El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”

Regional trade

There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.

The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.

“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”

Near-term challenges

While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown. 

Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly. 

Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country 

Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures. 

Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows. 

The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households. 

A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms.  Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.  

Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre. 

Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza. 

Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.

Can the Gulf build back better?

The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. 

Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. 

“The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.”   

It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED.

“One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. 

“We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen.  But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.”

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11360413/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Chinese firm wins $265m Saudi hospital contract

    24 June 2026

    Zhejiang Construction International, the local subsidiary of Chinese contractor Zhejiang Construction Investment Group, has won a $265m contract to build the Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd University Speciality Hospital in Al-Khobar.

    Construction is expected to take three years from the start date.

    Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd University awarded the contract.

    Located in Al-Raja district, Al-Khobar, in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, the hospital project will cover about 60,000 square metres.

    The contract covers the construction of a 10-storey hospital building, two five-storey auxiliary buildings connected by corridors and a basement.

    Work will include civil works, mechanical and electrical installation, curtain walling, landscaping, detailed design and the procurement of medical equipment.

    The award is the latest in a series of contracts secured by Chinese contractors from Saudi entities in recent months.

    Last week, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Municipalities & Housing awarded contracts worth more than SR1.9bn ($506m) to Chinese contractors for two residential developments in the kingdom.

    China Architectural Construction Corporation won the first contract, valued at SR875m ($233m), to build 2,010 housing units at the Al-Ruba residential project in Riyadh.

    China State Construction Engineering Corporation secured the other contract, valued at more than SR1bn ($266m), for the Al-Rasha Al-Faisaliah residential project in Dammam, comprising 2,426 housing units.

    GlobalData expects Saudi Arabia’s construction industry to record average annual growth of 5.2% in 2025-28, supported by investments in transport, electricity, housing and tourism infrastructure, as well as the $850bn-plus gigaprojects programme.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17412846/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Kuwait extends deadline for $718m drainage tender

    24 June 2026

     

    Kuwait’s Ministry of Public Works (MPW) has extended the deadline for a major drainage tender estimated to be worth about KD222m ($718m).

    The new bid submission deadline is 19 July.

    The tender scope covers the construction of rainwater drainage networks across the residential areas of Sabah Al-Ahmad, South Sabah Al-Ahmad, Al-Khairan and Al-Wafra.

    The MPW floated the tender on 22 March. The most recent deadline was 21 June.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the works include the construction of a major concrete sewer, three collection basins and extensive stormwater drainage basins.

    Rainwater collection tanks will be connected through an independent network, with outlets to the sea via the Nuwaiseeb exit to manage overflow.

    The infrastructure will also filter pollutants such as oils, minerals and sediments to protect water quality and support environmental sustainability.

    The project aims to reduce surface runoff, prevent street and urban flooding, and improve groundwater recharge.

    Kuwait’s MPW currently has several contracts out for tender for infrastructure works across various parts of the country.

    Also, in March, the client released two additional tenders covering the construction of a treated water system in Kuwait’s southern region and another in Kuwait’s northern region.

    Bids for both projects are due by 28 June.

    Meanwhile, the MPW is planning to begin construction of the $3.3bn North Kabd sewage treatment plant, which has a planned capacity of up to 1 million cubic metres a day.

    China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) won the contract to build the plant earlier this year.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17411675/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Contractor wins Emaar Dubai Harbour project deal

    24 June 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Local construction firm Al-Sahel Contracting Company has won a contract to build The Bristol Luxury Hotels & Resorts project in Dubai.

    The contract was awarded by local real estate developer Emaar Properties.

    The Bristol Luxury Hotels & Resorts is located at Emaar Beachfront in Dubai Harbour.

    The project comprises a 54-storey mixed-use building with about 150 hotel keys and 227 one- to four-bedroom apartments.

    Enabling works have been completed by local firm Dutch Foundation.

    Dubai-based Mirage Leisure & Development is the project’s consultant.

    Construction is expected to be completed by 2028.

    The contract award follows Emaar’s appointment of Dubai-based Aroma International Building Contracting to build the Address Grand Downtown tower.

    The award also comes shortly after Emaar reported strong operating momentum in 2025, led by record property sales of AED80.4bn ($21.9bn), up 16% year on year.

    The company’s revenue backlog from property sales rose to AED155bn ($42bn), supporting visibility on future revenue recognition.

    Total revenue for 2025 reached AED49.6bn ($13.5bn), a 40% year-on-year increase. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation grew 33% to AED25.6bn ($7bn), while net profit before tax rose 36% to AED25.7bn ($7bn).

    Emaar’s platform continued to support performance across property development, malls, hospitality, leisure and international operations.

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17411104/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Saudi Arabia launches new mineral exploration licensing round

    24 June 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Industry & Mineral Resources (MIMR) has launched its tenth round of a mineral exploration licensing competition, qualifying 24 local and international companies and consortiums to participate.

    The exploration opportunities offered under Round 10 cover about 13,000 square kilometres across the regions of Medina, Mecca, Riyadh, Qassim and Hail. They encompass several highly prospective mineralised belts that are said to contain significant deposits of gold, copper, silver, zinc and nickel.

    One of the key areas offered in the round is the Nabithah-Ad Duwayhi (Dahlat Shabeb) Belt, which hosts the Ad-Duwayhi Mine, one of Saudi Arabia’s largest gold-producing operations, with annual production of approximately 180,000 ounces of gold.

    Other notable exploration zones include the Sukhaybarat-Al-Safra Belt, recognised for its gold and base metals potential and home to the Sukhaybarat and Bulghah mining operations, as well as the Al-Nuqrah Belt, known for substantial gold resources and volcanogenic massive sulphide mineralisation rich in copper and zinc.

    According to MIMR, 17 companies that previously qualified under Round 9 have retained their eligibility, while seven additional companies and consortiums successfully completed the Round 10 prequalification process.

    The newly qualified bidders in Round 10 are:

    • Anaam Al-Qarat for Trading / Sahara Mining Company consortium
    • Danakali / Masadar Al-Zamarda for Mining consortium
    • Power Metallic Mines 
    • PT ANTAM Tbk
    • Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden)
    • Thurb Al-Hayya for Trading Company
    • Wildsky Resources

    The previously qualified participants from Round 9 are:

    • Al-Ghazal Al-Arabi Mining Company
    • Almasar Minerals Holding
    • Al-Tasnim Enterprises
    • Aurum Global Group
    • Batin Al-Ard for Gold Company
    • China National Geological and Mining Corporation
    • DesertEx 
    • Eqleed-Indotan Mining Company
    • Helderberg 
    • Jacaranda Minerals
    • Midana Exploration
    • Royal Road Arabia
    • Saudi Gold Refinery 
    • Sierra Nevada Gold
    • Sun Peak Metals
    • The Distinguished Consortium Mining Company
    • Vedanta 

    In a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency, MIMR said exploration licence competitions are conducted through a structured three-stage process designed to ensure transparency, competitiveness and equal opportunity for all participants.

    The process begins with prequalification assessments covering technical expertise and financial capability, followed by a site-selection phase through the ministry’s digital mining platform, Taadeen. Where multiple bidders compete for the same exploration site, the process advances to a public, multi-round bidding stage, with licences awarded based on exploration expenditure commitments and predefined evaluation criteria.

    The next phase of Round 10 will allow qualified bidders to select available exploration sites via the Taadeen platform, in accordance with established procedures that promote fair competition and enable companies to pursue opportunities aligned with their technical capabilities and investment strategies.

    ALSO READ: Aramco and Maaden seek to form joint venture

    “The continued participation of major international and regional mining companies reflects growing confidence in Saudi Arabia’s mining sector and the effectiveness of its transparent licensing framework,” MIMR said in its statement.

    Jarrah Aljarrah, a ministry spokesperson, said increasing participation in successive exploration licensing rounds demonstrates growing investor confidence in the kingdom’s mining ecosystem, supported by regulatory reforms, improved availability of geological data, transparent licensing mechanisms and a steadily expanding pipeline of exploration opportunities.

    Saudi Arabia’s metals and mining sector is pivotal to the country’s non-oil growth trajectory. Commercial exploitation of the kingdom’s mineral resource base – most of which remains untapped – is a key component of the Saudi Vision 2030 socio-economic transformation strategy.

    The kingdom took a first step towards realising the commercial potential of its mineral resources when it enacted the Mining Investment Law in 2021. Since the law came into effect, MIMR has awarded about 3,248 mining permits to local and foreign firms under its accelerated exploration initiative, including alone.

    Addressing the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh in January 2024, Bandar Alkhorayef, the kingdom’s minister of industry and mineral resources, said Saudi Arabia’s natural resources are worth $2.5tn – an increase of more than 90% compared to the 2016 estimate.

    This near-doubling of natural resource estimates – which exclude fossil fuels and include phosphate, gold and rare earths – is expected to provide a stimulus to the kingdom’s nascent mining industry.

    ALSO READ: Maaden mineral resources grow by 7.8 million ounces
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17398549/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Kuwait tenders oil manifold project

    24 June 2026

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has tendered a contract to construct remote header manifolds and associated works in the southern and eastern regions of Kuwait.

    A meeting with prospective contractors has been scheduled for 21 July 2026, and bids are due to be submitted ahead of a deadline on 20 September 2026.

    Manifolds are devices used in the oil sector to divide the flow of liquids from a single source to several outlets, or to collect liquids, or vice versa.

    Previously, a project with a similar scope in the same region was awarded to the Kuwaiti contractor Al-Ghanim International General Trading & Contracting.

    In 2016, it signed a contract worth $435m to construct remote header manifolds and associated works in the south and east Kuwait areas.

    The scope of that contract included design, procurement, construction and commissioning of 25 remote manifold stations and associated pipelines in south and east Kuwait using multi-phase pumps to deliver liquids to gathering centres.

    Kuwait’s oil fields are connected to more than 25 gathering centres, which serve as collection points for crude oil produced by several wells connected by flowlines, providing initial treatment by separating associated gas and removing salt.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17409564/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp