meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Mena economies living dangerously

27 December 2023

 

Gaza conflict puts the region on edge once again

Middle East and North Africa (Mena) economies enter 2024 in a state of flux. While most are well placed to continue their post-pandemic growth trajectory, albeit in the context of weaker oil sector growth, some states – Egypt and Tunisia notable among them — are under pressure to undertake painful reforms in order to elicit IMF funding packages.

Overall, hopes are high that growth in the Mena region will at least outpace the sluggish performance of the past year.  Policymakers across the region will also be looking to double down on the private sector dynamism that saw non-oil growth outpace hydrocarbons performances in 2023.

The overall rear-view mirror is not especially encouraging. The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook has Mena real GDP slowing to 2 per cent in 2023 from 5.6 per cent in 2022, a decline attributed to the impact of lower oil production among exporters and tighter monetary policy conditions in the region’s emerging market and middle-income economies. Geopolitical tensions – not least the Gaza conflict – and natural disasters in Morocco and Libya have also weighed on regional economies. 

GDP growth

The World Bank estimates that in per capita terms, GDP growth across the region decreased from 4.3 per cent in 2022 to just 0.4 per cent in 2023. By the end of 2023, it says, only eight of 15 Mena economies will have returned to pre-pandemic real GDP per capita levels.

Much hinges on developments in the oil market. The Opec+ decision on 30 November to agree voluntary output reductions that will extend Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day (b/d), is designed to shore up prices, but it will come at a cost. 

Saudi Arabia’s GDP data for the third quarter of 2023 revealed the full impact of output restraint, as the economy contracted at its fastest rate since the pandemic. Saudi GDP notably declined by 3.9 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter – after the kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1 million b/d oil output cut.

As a whole, GCC economic growth has been tepid, despite a resurgence in services hotspots such as the UAE, where retail and hospitality sectors have boomed. The World Bank’s Gulf Economic Update report, published in late November, sees GCC growth at just 1 per cent in 2023, although this is expected to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2024. 

Oil sector activity is expected to contract by 3.9 per cent in 2024 as a result of the recurrent Opec+ production cuts and global economic slowdown, according to Capital Economics. However, weaker oil sector activity will be compensated for by non-oil sectors, where growth is projected at a relatively healthy 3.9 per cent in 2024, supported by sustained private consumption, strategic fixed investments and accommodative fiscal policy.

“There has not been much GDP growth this year, but the non-oil economy has been surprisingly robust and resilient, despite the fact that the liquidity has not been as much of a driver as it was a year earlier,” says Jarmo Kotilaine, a regional economic expert. 

“Of course, the cost of capital has gone up and there have been some liquidity constraints. But we do have a lot of momentum in the non-oil economy.” 

In Saudi Arabia, beyond its robust real estate story, the ventures implemented under the national investment strategy are unfolding and semi-sovereign funds are playing a key role in ensuring continuity. “You are seeing more of these green energy projects across the region. It really has been a surprisingly positive story for the non-oil economy,” says Kotilaine.

Government spending

Fiscal policy will remain loose, at least among Mena oil exporters, whose revenues endow them with greater fiscal fire-power. 

Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-budget statement bakes in further budget deficits, with government spending for 2023 and 2024 expected to be 34 per cent and 32 per cent higher, respectively, than the finance ministry had projected in the 2022 budget.  This is not just higher spending on health, education and social welfare, but also marked increases in capital expenditure, including on the kingdom’s gigapojects. 

That luxury is not open to the likes of Bahrain and Oman, the former recording the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the region at 125 per cent in 2023. Those two Gulf states will need to maintain a closer watch on their fiscal positions in 2024. 

There are broader changes to fiscal policy taking place in the Gulf states, notes Kotilaine, some of which will be registered in 2024. “There are areas that the government will play a role in, but in a much more selective and focused manner. Much less of the overall story now hinges on government spending than it used to in the GCC,” he says.

For 2024, a consensus is emerging that the Mena region should see GDP growth of above 3 per cent. That is better than 2023, but well below the previous year and, warns the IMF, insufficient to be strong or inclusive enough to create jobs for the 100 million Arab youth who will reach working age in the next 10 years. 

The Mena region’s non-oil buoyancy at least offers hope that diversification will deliver more benefits to regional populations, reflecting the impact of structural reforms designed to improve the investment environment and make labour markets more flexible. 

“The labour market in the region continues to strengthen, with business confidence and hiring activity reverting to pre-pandemic levels,” says Safaa el-Tayeb el-Kogali, World Bank country director for the GCC. “In Saudi Arabia, private sector workforce has grown steadily, reaching 2.6 million in early 2023. This expansion coincides with overall increases in labour force participation, employment-to-population ratio, and a decrease in unemployment.”

El-Kogali adds that non-oil exports across the GCC region continue to lag, however. “While the substantial improvement in the external balances of the GCC over the past years is attributed to the exports of the oil sector, few countries in the region have also shown progress in non-oil merchandise exports. This requires close attention by policymakers to further diversify their exports portfolio by further promoting private sector development and competitiveness.”

Regional trade

There is a broader reshaping of the Gulf’s international trading and political relations, shifting away from close ties with the West to a broader alignment that includes Asian economies. The entry of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran to the Brics group of emerging market nations, taking effect in 2024, is a sign of this process.

The decision of the Saudi central bank and People’s Bank of China in November 2023 to agree a local-currency swap deal worth about $7bn underscores the kingdom’s reduced reliance on the Western financial system and a greater openness to facilitating more Chinese investment.

“You want to be as multi-directional, as multi-modal as you can,” says Kotilaine. “For the Gulf states, it is almost like they are trying to transcend the old bloc politics. It is not about who your best friend is. They want to think of this in terms of a non-zero sum game, and that worked very well for them during the global financial crisis when they had to pivot from the West to the East.”

Near-term challenges

While long-term strategic repositioning will influence Mena economic policy-making in 2024, there will be near-term issues to grapple with. High up that list is the Gaza conflict, the wider regional impacts of which are still unknown. 

Most current baseline forecasts do not envisage a wider regional escalation, limiting the conflict’s impacts on regional economies. The initial spike in oil prices following the 7 October attacks dissipated fairly quickly. 

Egypt is the most exposed to a worsening of the situation in Gaza, sharing a land border with the territory. However, the Gaza crisis is not the only challenge facing the North African country 

Elections set for 10 December will grant President Abdelfattah al-Sisi another term in office, but his in-tray is bulging under a host of economic pressures. 

Inflation peaked at 41 per cent in June 2023. A currency devaluation is being urged, as a more flexible pound would offer a better chance of attracting much-needed capital inflows. 

The corollary is that it would have to be accompanied by an interest rate hike. Capital Economics sees a 200 basis point increase to 21.25 per cent as the most likely outcome, ratcheting up the pain on Egyptian businesses and households. 

A deal with the IMF would do much to settle Egyptian nerves, with a rescue plan worth $5bn understood to be in the offing. But Egypt has to do more to convince the fund that it is prepared to undertake meaningful fiscal reforms.  Privatisations of state assets, including Egypt Aluminum, will help.  

Other Mena economies will enjoy more leeway to chart their own economic path in 2024. Iraq has achieved greater political stability over the past year, and may stand a better chance of reforming its economy, although weaker oil prices will limit the heavily hydrocarbons-dominated economy’s room for manoeuvre. 

Jordan is another Mena economy that has managed to tame inflation. Like Egypt, however, the country is also heavily exposed to what happens in Gaza. 

Few could have predicted the bloody events that followed the 7 October attacks. Mena region economic strategists will be hoping that 2024 will not bring further surprises.

Can the Gulf build back better?

The GCC has done much to put itself on the global map through effective reputation building. But, notes regional economic expert Jarmo Kotilaine, the focus of policy will now have to change from building more to building better, making the existing infrastructure and systems operate with greater efficiency. 

Above all, the region will need dynamic and adaptable companies and an economically engaged workforce. 

“The reality is the GCC has a lot of capital committed to the old economy. There is the question of how much of that should be upgraded, or made to work better, because fundamentally, one of the region’s big challenges is that local economies have very low levels of productivity.”   

It is by upgrading what the GCC has, by incorporating technology and energy efficiency, that the region can make productivity growth a driver, he tells MEED.

“One area where GCC economies have started to make progress is in services: logistics, tourism, financial services. This is bringing money to the region,” he says. 

“We are also starting to see new potential export streams with things like green energy, and obviously green hydrogen.  But the Gulf states have to manufacture more, and they have to manufacture better.”

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11360413/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Accor and Al-Qimmah plan 4,000 Saudi rooms

    27 August 2026

    France's hotel operator Accor has expanded its partnership with local firm Al Qimmah Hospitality, a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia's BinDawood Investment Company, to develop more than 4,000 hotel rooms in the kingdom.

    The plan focuses on building a portfolio in Mecca and Medina.

    The expanded agreement was announced in Paris during the French-Saudi Investment Roundtable. It follows a master development agreement signed in 2025. The partnership now covers five hotels in Jeddah, Mecca and Medina across the premium, midscale and economy segments.

    One of the planned developments is an 850-room Novotel in Mecca, which is due to open in 2030. The agreement also covers the Mercure Makkah Shesha, ibis Styles Makkah Mesfalah, Movenpick Madinah and Swissotel Jeddah properties.

    The partnership will also support job creation and Saudi workforce development through Tamayyaz by Accor, the group's national talent programme run with the Saudi Ministry of Tourism. The programme aims to develop and hire more than 3,000 Saudi nationals by 2030.

    Accor has operated in Saudi Arabia for more than three decades and runs 48 hotels with more than 21,600 rooms nationwide. Its pipeline includes a further 47 properties comprising more than 11,400 rooms.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19051854/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Jeddah tenders stormwater drainage contracts

    27 August 2026

    Jeddah Municipality has invited contractors to bid for a contract covering the construction of a rainwater drainage network for the Prince Fawaz neighbourhood.

    The project aims to collect and convey rainwater away from residential streets and low-lying areas. It is valued at $60m and intended to reduce flooding risks during heavy rainfall.

    The scope includes manholes, stormwater catch basins and connections to existing manholes as well as the restoration of road surfaces.

    The bid submission deadline is 12 October.

    The municipality is also progressing with a second stormwater drainage project for the first package of Zone (BC), Old Zahraa in Jeddah Governorate, with bids due on 2 September. The project is valued at about $30m.

    The two projects are part of the muncipality's wider drainage programme including the flagship King Abdullah Road-Falasteen Road tunnel project,

    MEED previously reported that Saudi contractor Thrustboring Construction Company had been selected for phases one and two of the project, each valued at about $175m, covering the construction of large-diameter stormwater drainage tunnels.

    It is understood an official agreement has still yet to be signed.

    In June, MEED reported that local contractor Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (AWPT) had signed two contracts with Jeddah Municipality to operate and maintain stormwater and surface water drainage networks across the city.

    The contracts have a combined value of SR202.06m ($53.9m), and each will run for five years.

    The first contract, valued at SR108.46m ($28.9m), covers the operation and cleaning of stormwater and surface water networks in the South and Al-Malisa sub-municipalities.

    The second contract, worth SR93.59m ($25m), covers similar services for the Airport Sub-Municipality.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19039514/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saur and Nesma sign water infrastructure deal

    26 August 2026

    French firm Saur and local contractor Nesma & Partners have signed a deal to jointly "pursue the design and construction" of two recycled water plants in Riyadh.

    The memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed during the French-Saudi Investment Roundtable Meeting in Paris on 24 August.

    It builds on an earlier agreement by the companies last September focusing on developing desalination and sewage treatment plants aceross the kingdom including project development, engineering, procurement, construction (EPC) and long-term operations and maintenance (O&M).

    At the time, the companies agreed to "target industrial water treatment through concession and operations contracts," extending the agreement beyond municipal water infrastructure.

    The latest agreement appears to mark a move from the broader partnership towards specific project opportunies in the Riyadh market. Details of the projects were not disclosed.

    In May, MEED exclusively reported that a consortium including Saur, Nesma and another local firm Al-Bawani was preparing to bid for the Riyadh East Independent Sewage Treatment Plant (ISTP) project, of which, the submission deadline was recently extended to 29 September.

    There are almost $2.5bn worth of water treatment projects at the pre-execution stage in Saudi Arabia, according to regional tracker MEED Projects.

    The French-Saudi Investment roundtable meeting was organised as part of Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman’s state visit to France.

    Saudi Aramco also announced agreements and a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with French companies, worth a potential combined value of more than $3.7bn.

    Among the other agreements signed during the conference was a cooperation agreement between Saudi Energy and French public investment bank Bpifrance, valued at up to $3bn, to support financing for projects to develop and expand Saudi Arabia’s power grid.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19011713/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Technip Energies secures role in Umm Shaif Gas Cap project

    26 August 2026

    France-based Technip Energies has secured a contract to provide detailed engineering services on a key offshore package part of the Umm Shaif integrated gas cap and surface pressure boosting project of Adnoc Offshore.

    The detailed engineering services deal was awarded as a sub-contract to Technip Energies by India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH), in its capacity as the main contractor on the package 1 of the Umm Shaif gas cap project.

    MEED previously reported about the offshore business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Offshore) awarding the main EPC contract for package 1 to a consortium of L&TEH and Saudi Arabia/UAE-based Lamprell.

    Both L&TEH and Lamprell have confirmed their respective contract awards.

    Under the detailed engineering contract, Technip Energies, in its statement on 26 August, said it “will draw on its strong local engineering capabilities and extensive experience with complex, large-scale offshore projects in the Middle East.”

    In July, Adnoc and its foreign partners announced a $6.2bn final investment decision (FID) for their project to produce up to 600 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) of natural gas by developing the Umm Shaif Gas Cap in Abu Dhabi.

    The Umm Shaif Gas Cap reserve is located within the offshore Umm Shaif and Nasr hydrocarbons concession, which is operated by Adnoc as the majority stakeholder. The other stakeholders in the concession are Italy’s Eni, France’s TotalEnergies and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC).

    Adnoc said the FID includes three EPC packages totalling $5.1bn for large-scale offshore infrastructure, awarded to consortiums comprising major UAE and international contractors. The company did not disclose the contractors or the scope of work.

    MEED reported in May that the following contractors had emerged as frontrunners for the two offshore packages and one onshore package of the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project:

    • First offshore package – fabrication of a 30,000-tonne gas compression system: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Lamprell (Saudi Arabia/UAE)
    • Second offshore package – fabrication of another 30,000-tonne gas compression system: McDermott (US)
    • Onshore package – EPC of gas inlet and processing systems on Das Island: China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Company (CPECC)

    McDermott recently confirmed its contract award for package 2, describing the order as “mega”, a term the company uses for jobs valued above $1bn.

    In its 21 July statement, Adnoc added that, as part of the FID, it has also awarded a $365m contract to its subsidiary Adnoc Drilling for a 14-well drilling and integrated drilling services scope, to be delivered over 18 months using three existing rigs.

    “The FID for Umm Shaif Gas Cap is the latest milestone in the company’s gas growth strategy and will unlock more than 600 million standard cubic feet per day of natural gas and associated gas liquids, equivalent to almost 10% of the UAE’s current daily gas consumption. The investment will reinforce the UAE’s energy security and its role as a reliable global energy supplier,” Adnoc said.

    Production from the development is expected by 2030, the Abu Dhabi energy giant said.

    “The UAE holds the seventh-largest gas reserves in the world. As global demand for reliable, lower-carbon energy continues to grow, Adnoc is unlocking more of the nation’s gas resources and expanding its liquefied natural gas (LNG) portfolio to meet the needs of its domestic and international customers and power industrial and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure growth,” it added.

    Umm Shaif Gas Cap project

    Adnoc Offshore, the offshore oil and gas business of Adnoc Group, is the operator of the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project, MEED has reported.

    The primary objective is to increase gas production by 550 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) and raise associated condensate output by 50,000 barrels a day (b/d).

    Adnoc Offshore intends to feed about 520 million cf/d of the additional produced gas into Adnoc Group’s sales gas grid.

    Adnoc Offshore is understood to have issued the main EPC tender for the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project in the first quarter of 2025.

    Contractors submitted technical bids for the three EPC packages by the 30 October deadline last year, while commercial bids were submitted by the 2 February deadline.

    The following contractors are among those understood to be bidding for the three EPC packages, according to sources:

    Offshore package 1:

    • Saipem (Italy) / Seatrium (Singapore)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Lamprell (Saudi Arabia/UAE)
    • NMDC Energy (UAE) / Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)

    Offshore package 2:

    • China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (COOEC)
    • McDermott (US)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Lamprell (Saudi Arabia/UAE)
    • NMDC Energy (UAE) / Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)

    Onshore package:

    • Archirodon (Greece)
    • China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Company (CPECC)
    • Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (Enppi; Egypt)
    • Galfar Emirates (UAE branch of Oman’s Galfar Engineering & Construction)
    • Target Engineering Construction Company (UAE)

    Australian firm Worley has performed front-end engineering and design (feed) work on the project.

    Umm Shaif gas production

    Adnoc Offshore operates the Umm Shaif hydrocarbons development, which is located 150 kilometres (km) northwest of the city of Abu Dhabi. The field is located in Abu Dhabi’s offshore Umm Shaif and Nasr hydrocarbons concession, previously operated by former Adnoc Group companies Adma-Opco and Zadco.

    In March and April 2018, Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs (SCFEA) awarded a 10% stake in the Umm Shaif and Nasr offshore block to Eni, 20% to TotalEnergies and 10% to CNPC. Adnoc Group retained the majority 60% interest. The operators produce a total of about 460,000 b/d of oil from the Umm Shaif and Nasr block.

    Gas is produced from the Umm Shaif Khuff and Uweinat reservoirs, as well as from the Arab C and Arab D Early Production Scheme 2. The Umm Shaif Khuff reservoir is a formation that consists of dry gas volumetric reservoirs located in the Umm Shaif field.

    Khuff reservoirs have been in production in Abu Dhabi since August 1989. Umm Shaif Khuff gas is currently produced from 28 active wells within the Umm Shaif field. A majority of these wells supply gas to Adnoc Group subsidiaries Adnoc LNG and Adnoc Gas Processing, with the rest supporting oil reservoirs at the Umm Shaif field through gas injection.

    The Umm Shaif Super Complex (USSC) processes and transports oil, condensates and natural gas in separate pipelines to Das Island for further processing and export. The condensates collected from the USSC are transported to Das Island through an 18-inch pipeline stretching 34.4km, or are spiked into the 36-inch Adnoc main oil line.

    The gas collected from the USSC is transported to Das Island through two 46-inch pipelines, which also run 34.4km.

    Pressure at the Umm Shaif Khuff gas reservoirs will start to decline by the end of 2028. The flowing wellhead pressures at some of the Khuff gas wellhead towers are likely to reduce, so boosting well deliverability and increasing the flowrates is necessary.

    Therefore, new Khuff surface pressure boosting facilities are required to maintain the plateau – with a goal of achieving a 90% gas recovery factor – and increase production beyond the end of the plateau by lowering pressure at the Khuff reservoirs.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19009217/main5444.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Wabag confirms $372m Kuwait desalination contract

    26 August 2026

    India's VA Tech Wabag has confirmed it has signed a contract to supply, install, operate and maintain the second phase of the Doha seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant.

    Wabag confirmed the signing in a Regulation 30 filing on 25 August to the National Stock Exchange of India and BSE Limited.

    The contract is valued at KD114.28m ($372m) and will be delivered by a Wabag-led unincorporated joint venture with Kuwait’s Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco).

    In April, MEED reported that Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders had approved the recommendation of the Ministry of Electricity & Water to award the contract to the joint venture.

    It is understood that the decision then had to go through final approval from the Audit Bureau

    The project will deliver a production capacity of about 60 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD) equivalent to about 272 million litres a day.

    It will include the desalination plant with full reverse osmosis trains, pre- and post-treatment systems, recarbonation equipment, booster pumps, and safety and filtration systems. On-site solar photovoltaic systems will also provide part of the plant’s energy requirements.

    According to the filing, construction is scheduled to take 36 months, followed by a five-year operation and maintenance period.

    The Doha SWRO desalination plant is part of Kuwait’s broader programme to expand water production capacity and reduce reliance on thermal desalination methods.

    As reported by MEED, the Heisco/Wabag joint venture submitted the lowest of three bids for the project in August 2025.

    In April 2025, MEED reported that Kuwait had retendered the contract for the facility after the ministry cancelled the initial tender in June 2024.

    The Ministry of Electricity & Water awarded South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction – now known as Doosan Enerbility – a $422m contract in May 2016 to build the 60 MIGD Doha 1 SWRO plant.

    The contract marks Wabag's first project in Kuwait. In June, the contractor also won its first major contract in the UAE for the Ajman sewage biorefinery plant phase 3 project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19004753/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall