Monthly briefing: 22 key developments in the region

28 September 2022

By Indrajit Sen


Opec+ agrees minor production increase

King appoints crown prince as Saudi prime minister

Lebanon parliament approves $1.2bn draft budget

Iraq court rules against national oil company

Libya oil production continues to grow

President approves Egypt's Olympic plans

> Dubai prepares hydrogen strategy

GCC central banks raise interest rates

UK and GCC hold ministerial meeting at the UN


OIL

Oil producers will raise output by 100,000b/d in October

The Opec+ alliance of oil producers decided in September that it would increase oil production by just 100,000 barrels a day (b/d) in October to support crude prices, which have fluctuated in recent weeks amid fears that a global economic recession will curb demand for oil. 

Opec+ members also increased overall oil production by 100,000b/d in September. 

The alliance agreed to increase its July and August crude production by about 50 per cent to 648,000b/d, fully restoring the 5.8 million b/d output that the group had cut at the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. Read more


IRAN

Deadly protests follow woman’s death in custody

Thirty-five people have been killed in protests in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody on 16 September.

Protests have been reported in 31 provinces.

The 22-year-old Amini had been detained for breaking headscarf rules and was reportedly beaten with batons.

Officials said she suffered heart failure and Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi has stated that she was not beaten. 

President Ebrahim Raisi pledged to crack down on the unrest on 24 September.

The official Islamic Republic News Agency reported on 25 September that there had been large-scale demonstrations to condemn the protests.



21 September: Iranian demonstrators take to the streets of Tehran during a protest for Mahsa Amini, days after she died in police custody. Credit: AFP via Getty Images


SALIK IPO

Dubai toll operator raises over $1bn from oversubscribed stock listing

Dubai toll operator Salik raised $1.017bn from its initial public offering (IPO) on the Dubai Financial Market, as part of a series of IPOs of state enterprises aimed at boosting the size of the emirate's capital market.

The IPO was more than 49 times oversubscribed across all tranches, with total gross demand at $50.2bn.

The company had set its offering price at AED2 ($0.54) a share, giving it a valuation of more than $4bn.

The emirate's government sold more than 1.867 billion shares in the company, or 24.9 per cent, up from the previously announced 1.5 billion shares, equivalent to 20 per cent.


ARAB PEACE

Saudi Arabia, Arab League and EU hold meeting in New York

Saudi Foreign Affairs Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud and Arab League secretary-general Ahmed Aboul Gheit attended a meeting of the Arab Peace Initiative Committee and its sponsors in the EU. The meeting took place at the UN General Assembly in New York. 

The Arab Peace Initiative, which Saudi Arabia launched in 2002, is a proposal to end the Arab-Israeli conflict. The members of the Arab Peace Initiative Committee are Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, Tunisia, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Iraq, Palestine, Qatar, Lebanon, Morocco and Yemen. The initiative is sponsored by Spain, Sweden and France.


GCC

Two years of high oil prices set to improve regional outlook

Rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has said that elevated oil prices during the next two years will lead to a significant improvement in the fiscal and external positions of GCC sovereigns, partly reversing the sharp deterioration in their balance sheets since 2015. 

Improvements in creditworthiness will hinge on the extent to which regional governments utilise the windfall to address constraints posed by their exposure to cyclical oil price and demand volatility, and by longer-term carbon transition risks, Moody’s said.

The agency expects oil prices to average about $105 a barrel in 2022 and $95 a barrel in 2023. As a result, most hydrocarbon-exporting countries in the GCC will run fiscal and current account surpluses, allowing governments to pay down debts, rebuild fiscal reserves and accumulate foreign-currency buffers.


GULF BANKS

Regional banks are returning to pre-pandemic form

After a strong first half, ratings agency S&P Global expects that earnings for most GCC banks will almost reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year amid high oil prices and rising interest rates.

In the second half of 2022, S&P forecasts further strengthening of regional banks’ interest margins and a manageable rise in cost of risk amid lingering effects from the Covid-19 pandemic via loans that benefited from support measures and were then restructured. Combined, these factors will be a net positive for banks’ earnings.


SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi infrastructure and property projects top $1.1tn

The aggregate value of property and infrastructure projects since the launch of Saudi Arabia’s National Transformation Plan in 2016 has crossed $1.1tn as the kingdom continues to diversify its economy, according to real estate consultancy Knight Frank. 

The $500bn Neom city development is the biggest of 15 major projects in Saudi Arabia that are currently at various phases of construction. The kingdom plans to have more than 555,000 residential units, 275,000 hotel rooms, 4.3 million square metres (sq m) of retail and 6.1 million sq m of new office space by 2030. 

The country is also developing several large-scale tourism projects as it seeks to increase the economic contribution of the sector from 3 per cent of GDP to 10 per cent by the end of this decade.


JERUSALEM

UK prime minister considers relocating British embassy

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss is considering moving the British embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. 

Truss spoke about a possible move to the contested city during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September. 

Despite Israel having designated Jerusalem as its capital, Britain has long maintained its embassy in Tel Aviv. 

When he was president of the US, Donald Trump took the controversial decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem in May 2018. 

Both Israelis and Palestinians claim the city as their capital.


SAUDI ARABIA

First Saudi woman to be sent to space in a crewed mission

Saudi Arabia plans to send a woman into space for the first time as part of its new mission programme. 

A crew will be launched next year that will include the first Saudi female pilot and astronaut. 

The kingdom’s astronaut programme aims to produce qualified Saudi citizens who will take part in short- and long-term space flights, as well as participate in scientific experiments, international research and future space-related missions. 

The new programme comes under the umbrella of Saudi Vision 2030 and will fall under the National Space Strategy, the details of which will be announced in the coming months.


FIFA WORLD CUP

Qatar to shut borders to non-World Cup ticket holders

Entry to Qatar will be restricted from 1 November to citizens, residents and holders of the World Cup Hayya card, the tournament’s organising committee has announced. 

The suspension of visits by people not attending Fifa World Cup matches will continue until 23 December, five days after the final match takes place in Doha. 

The restrictions apply to all air, land and sea borders into Qatar. 

Football fans in possession of a match ticket for the World Cup must also apply for a Hayya entry permit – a pre-approved digital visa linked to a passport that offers free public transport around the country. 

The Hayya card allows entry into Qatar until 23 January 2023. 

Qatari citizens and residents, GCC citizens holding a Qatari identification card, holders of work entry permits and personal visas, and approved humanitarian cases will be exempt from the restrictions.


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MEED Editorial
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    As the effort to tackle the climate crisis continues, global demand for renewable energy has been increasing. Unfortunately, the windiest and sunniest parts of the world are not necessarily where the need for energy is highest. This is where transmission plays a big role, linking energy generation to energy use as a product of global interconnection, and diversifying production from renewable sources to create a steadier supply of clean power. 

    Transporting energy across vast distances is not easy though. From the regulatory complexities of navigating cross-border infrastructure projects to the high costs of financing and the need for long-term planning and advanced technical capabilities, the challenges involved in successfully deploying long-distance transmission projects are varied. Overcoming these challenges is not a single party affair, but requires close collaboration across government, industry and non-governmental organisations. 

    We conducted a study with nearly 600 industry experts from across the world who highlighted the pressing need for co-ordinated global action to rapidly develop grid infrastructure. Integrating renewable energy into existing grids was cited by participants as one of the most significant barriers to achieving net-zero objectives, alongside supply chain vulnerabilities and ability to access the required capital.

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    From a technical standpoint, there are multiple considerations when implementing cross-border interconnections. Regions can operate using different technical parameters, such as different voltages or frequencies. Even within the same country, interregional variations can create bottlenecks. Adopting regional or international grid codes could mitigate these issues.

    Further challenges emerge when we take trading into account. This is where regulation can act as an enabler, facilitating the flow of electricity between countries. The European Union’s efforts to co-ordinate the design of its member state’s energy markets enables an increasingly smooth transmission of energy across the continent. Alongside this, existing infrastructure is outdated, requiring significant upfront investment to upgrade. Clarity on regulatory requirements and more transparency around plans for grid buildout, derisk funding for capital-intensive mega projects.

    Coordinated action is vital for the transfer of energy across borders and access to renewable sources of energy

    Positive benefits

    Despite these challenges, the upside must be stressed. Integrating power systems across borders has many positive societal benefits, decreasing costs and hence energy bills through economies of scale, increasing energy security and lowering the environmental impact of operations. On the latter more specifically, larger power systems are able to integrate higher shares of variable renewables. Globally, the sun is always shining and the wind blowing somewhere. 

    A common element, therefore, emerges: the need for increased cross-border co‑ordination. Whether it is bilateral, multi-lateral or unified, different models of inter-jurisdictional arrangements are needed for large-scale projects to support global energy interconnections. Our Xlinks project, which is using high-voltage direct current (HVDC) for transmission, is a standout example. 

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    Political, technical and market hurdles can be overcome through collaboration and partnerships. Leveraging the collective expertise and resources of governments, regulators and the private sector can help ensure interconnections are developed quickly enough to support the energy transition. Grid buildout takes time. We have the resources required to meet ambitions, but stopping now is not viable. We must continue planning, building and maintaining large-scale infrastructure projects to meet the rising demand.

    Coordinated action is vital for the transfer of energy across borders and access to renewable sources of energy. This was the message from Cop28 and the UAE Consensus: to help progress and secure a cleaner, brighter future for us all, we must break down barriers and come together. 

     

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  • GE Vernova invests in Xlinks

    2 May 2024

    US-headquartered GE Vernova has invested $10.2m in Xlinks First, the investment company established by UK-based startup Xlinks to deliver the $18bn Morocco-UK power project.

    This investment equates to a minority shareholding in the company, which is developing a project comprising wind and solar generation as well as battery storage, with a total combined capacity of 3,600MW, to be transmitted from Morocco to the UK.

    Xlinks said the investment will “further accelerate delivery and buildout of the project”.

    GE Vernova joins at least four other investors in the project.

    Other investors include Africa Finance Corporation, which invested $14.1m in April; Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), $30.7m; the UK’s Octopus Energy, $6.23m; and France’s Total Energies, $25.4m.

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    In December last year, Xlinks signed a contract with Canada-headquartered WSP to provide technical advisory services for the project.

    WSP will support Xlinks with route optimisation, power systems and interface management for the plan to construct the project.

    The Morocco-UK power project entails building 10,500MW solar and wind farms in Morocco’s Guelmim-Oued Noun region and sending 3,600MW a day of energy exclusively to the UK via four 3,800-kilometre HVDC cables.

    The HVDC network is envisaged to run from the UK’s south coast, passing France, Spain and Portugal undersea and then onshore to a planned solar and wind energy project in Morocco.

    This renewable energy-sourced electricity amounts to nearly 8% of the UK’s current requirements, equivalent to powering 7 million homes by 2030.

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  • Awards buoy Oman’s green hydrogen strategy

    2 May 2024

    Commentary
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
    Energy & technology editor

    Oman has awarded two additional land blocks designed to develop green hydrogen projects.

    The latest land block concessions in Dhofar were awarded to two consortiums. One comprises a team of France's EDF Group and EDF Renewables, with partners Japanese Electric Power Development Company (J-Power) and the UK-headquartered Yamna Company.

    Another team comprises UK investment firm Actis and Australian metals firm Fortescue.

    This brings the total number of land blocks awarded through the public auction process spearheaded by Hydrogen Oman (Hydrom) to four, exclusive of the four legacy initiatives signed or agreed upon already.

    *Budgets are MEED estimates if not publicly disclosed. Sources: MEED, Hydrom

    A limited gas supply and network strongly incentivises Oman to build a green hydrogen-centric downstream sector that will provide feedstock to domestic industrial plants and generate derivatives for the local and export markets.

    Stakeholders have implemented a strategy, including setting up an infrastructure company catering to these projects. The target is to generate 1 to 1.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) of green hydrogen by 2030 and 7.5 to 8.5 million t/y by 2050.

    The blueprint envisages a complete green hydrogen ecosystem, from the production of renewable energy and its distribution to electrolysis plants and hydrogen derivatives conversion plants to storage and export terminals.

    Omani ports' existing relationships with European stakeholders and growing alliances with other countries could also help seal future offtake agreements for the planned facilities.

    As things stand, the consortiums that won the land auctions and the legacy initiative partners provide much gravitas to Oman's green hydrogen programme. They comprise energy old guards such as BP and Shell that are keen to decarbonise, private companies aiming to balance their investment portfolios with clean energy investments, and offtakers or trading companies that are grappling with net-zero targets.

    Yet the most obvious question remains. Given the eye-popping foreign direct investments these complex projects entail, not all are likely to achieve a final investment decision within three years. This seems to be the window required for the projects to start production before 2030.

    But like any emerging industry, the risks can only be properly assessed and mitigated as the first projects move toward the execution phase.

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  • Operationalise loss and damage fund says Al Jaber

    2 May 2024

    Steps must be taken to ensure a fully functioning Loss and Damage Fund, following an agreement at Cop28 to operationalise the fund, according to Cop28 President Sultan Al Jaber.

    “While delivering an agreement to operationalise the Fund at Cop28 was a huge breakthrough for climate progress more needs to be done,” Al Jaber said during the first board meeting of the fund on 30 April.

    The Loss and Damage Fund, which was first proposed in the 1990s, aims to help developing countries cope with the impact of extreme global warming events such as droughts and floods.

    Al Jaber cited the need to build a fully functioning fund, which will be endorsed at Cop29 in Baku, which will be “disbursing funds soon after and a Fund that delivers lasting, positive, socio-economic impact for decades to come."

    "While it took over three decades to establish this Fund, climate change has not stood still. Every region of the world is now vulnerable…the impacts of climate change are a clear and present danger to lives and livelihoods everywhere."

    Al Jaber’s message resonates closer home given the recent storms hitting the UAE, which brought some emirates to a standstill in mid-April.

    Heavy rainfall inundated Dubai and the Northern Emirates on 16 April, causing flooding and significant property and infrastructure damages.

    A total of $792m has been pledged for loss and damage funding arrangements – of which $662m has been pledged to the Fund to date – including a $100m contribution each from the UAE and Germany and $75m from the UK.   

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  • Norwegian firm to develop Oman wave energy project

    2 May 2024

    Oman's shipping and logistics firm Asyad Group has signed an agreement with Norwegian wave energy company Havkraft to explore the development of wave energy.

    It is the first project of its kind in the sultanate and across the region.

    Havkraft is known globally for pioneering technologies that enable the production of renewable electricity from wave energy.

    According to Havkraft Middle East adviser Matt Minshall, wave power has the potential to be the “most eco-friendly and cost-effective route to net zero”.

    Oceans cover 78% of the earth’s and waves have the potential for energy with the reliability of a constantly charged battery, and have remained untouched, according to Minshall.

    The Norwegian startup reached a breakthrough in 2013 when it successfully developed the Havkraft Wave Energy Converter (H-Wec), which is suited for "all types of wave climates globally."

    Since then, the company has launched several solutions, including the deployment of a floating power-plant powered entirely by wave energy.

    Havkraft envisages a supersystem – a combination of solar, wind and wave power – to achieve a more resilient and sustainable energy mix while reducing dependence on expensive storage.

    Photo: Asyad

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