Risks remain for GCC railway project
28 August 2023

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When the GCC secretariat agreed to restart the GCC Railway Project in 2021, it set the tone for one of the region’s most ambitious transnational projects.
The endeavour aims to connect the six Gulf nations with a sprawling railway network that will be a game-changer for the region’s infrastructure. The potential to boost trade, connectivity and regional economic development is enormous.
But risks and challenges also lie ahead, including cost overruns and technical risks related to the project design, engineering and complexity that must be assessed, managed and monitored to ensure the project’s successful delivery.
Political risks
Political factors play a significant role in the development and operation of the GCC railway. Given that the network will traverse multiple geographies, one of its biggest tests is manoeuvring through the regional political landscape.
First and foremost among political considerations is the level of cooperation and diplomatic relations between the member states. The railway’s seamless operation relies on harmonised regulations, standard operating procedures and open communication between nations, as well as geopolitical stability.
In this respect, the Al-Alu agreement of 2021 is key, as it laid the strong foundations for a more robust mechanism to ensure better cooperation between the GCC countries.
“The Qatar blockade was a big challenge to manage and the GCC countries have seen the consequences of the situation,” Alexandre Busson (right), director of rail, Hill International, tells MEED.
“They realised that there was no benefit in it for the region. So the Al-Ula declaration is really important.”
But while the agreement mitigates the political risk related to the GCC railway project to some extent, the potential for geopolitical tensions or disputes between the involved states remains and could impede the project’s progress by delaying decisions, complicating negotiations and disrupting work.
The GCC countries' wide-ranging economic interests and priorities could also impact their commitment to the railway project. Member states will need to consider their existing investments in other forms of transportation infrastructure, such as ports and highways. Balancing these interests requires careful negotiations and alignment of economic visions.
PPP contracts are more complex to negotiate and manage. But it [will be] very interesting to see how it goes because a successful PPP project could lead to the opening up of the market
Alexandre Busson, Hill International
Financial risks
The enormity of the GCC Railway Project becomes apparent when considering the huge costs involved. Laying tracks spanning six countries and crossing diverse terrains and urban areas, building stations, installing signalling systems and ensuring the safety of the network demands billions of dollars’ worth of investment.
With the financial stability of GCC nations closely tied to the global oil market, fluctuations in oil prices could significantly impact the ability and political will of governments to allocate funds to the GCC Railway Project.
“When GCC countries budget for infrastructure projects, they are very conservative with regards to the oil price in their budget,” says Busson. “And in terms of projects financing, they realise [the need] to diversify the economy and not be too dependent on oil prices.”
Nevertheless, economic diversification plans mean each GCC nation faces its own set of budget constraints and priorities. Regional governments must juggle allocating limited funds to sectors such as healthcare, education, defence and infrastructure. The GCC Railway Project’s financial demands could strain these budgets, potentially diverting resources away from critical sectors.
To bridge the financial gap, governments are likely to explore a combination of public financing and private investment. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have attracted interest from large-scale infrastructure projects in the region and the GCC railway will be no different. Luring private investors, however, requires a stable and attractive investment environment, coupled with clear revenue-generation models and risk-sharing agreements.
“The PPP model is quite new in the GCC. Even more so in transport,” says Busson. “Those kinds of contracts are more complex to negotiate and manage. But it [will be] very interesting to see how it goes because a successful PPP project could lead to the opening up of the market.”
You need to look at the consortium members and say, do we have the right balance within that particular consortium to be able to manage this project
Christopher Harding, Hill International
Technical risks
The technical risks of rail systems running across international borders are well documented. Examples include the Tan-Zam railway between Tanzania and Zambia and the rail link connecting Spain and France, where the adoption of different gauges meant construction was fraught with technical difficulties when joining the networks to each other.
“Inaccurate or complex specifications sometimes lead to extra efforts [needing] to be put into the interface management and getting interface agreements between the contractors,” explains Christopher Harding (right), a senior project management professional currently working on the Cairo Metro project for US-based consultant Hill International.
“That leads to claims from contractors and hence may lead to cost overruns.”
The complexity of the GCC Railway Project raises the stakes when it comes to technical risks. Meticulous planning and implementation will be required to ensure seamless connectivity across deserts, mountains and coastal areas, while the need for bridges, tunnels and viaducts to overcome geographical obstacles demands robust engineering solutions.
Addressing these engineering risks requires a comprehensive understanding of the local environment, as well as innovative and consistent engineering techniques.
“There needs to be a common policy on the control systems for each country and how they talk to each other,” says Harding.
The involvement of multiple contractors will bring contractor-related risks too. Coordination between these entities will be key, as delays in one segment could cascade through the entire network, causing misalignments and operational bottlenecks.
“You need to look at the consortium members and say, do we have the right balance within that particular consortium to be able to manage this project,” says Harding.
Another significant challenge will be maintaining uniform quality standards across the contractors working on the GCC Railway Project to prevent differing construction techniques, materials and safety practices from potentially compromising the railway’s overall integrity and efficiency.
“The rules around aspects like recruitment localisation, In-country Value (ICV), In-Kingdom Total Value Add (IKTVA) and regional headquarters requirement could be a challenge for new companies,” adds Busson.
The establishment of the GCC Railway Authority to oversee the overall implementation of the project will go some way towards resolving the technical issues outlined here. The authority is tasked with ensuring common standards and specifications, and supervising the railway’s interoperability and regional integration.
For the project to succeed, the authority must develop robust risk management strategies, effective communication channels among contractors, stringent quality control measures and transparent procurement processes.
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Paris-headquartered hotel operator Accor expects Dubai’s hotel market to return to pre-conflict occupancy levels by the end of the first quarter or early second quarter of 2027, with room rates lagging the volume recovery by several months.
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Rate outlook
Morin dismissed concerns that the conflict had structurally weakened Dubai’s pricing power, drawing a parallel with the period following Covid-19.
“When we came out of Covid, everybody said those prices would never hold. The question at every analyst call was always the same: your pricing strategy is unsustainable. Guess what? Nothing changed. The prices now, three or four years later, are still the same.”
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Morin also said Dubai has a track record of outpacing expectations after previous disruptions. “The first part of the world, post-Covid, that came back to positive RevPAR was the Middle East – it was Dubai. People forget that. The capacity of this part of the world to rebound, and the capacity of the industry to rebound in general, is always misunderstood.”
No pullback
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Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
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According to sources, the proposed project is being led by BeVentures, the venture capital arm of Bapco Energies, which was launched in July 2024.
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Case for nuclear power
Bahrain’s interest in exploring nuclear power has been driven primarily by the limitations of its hydrocarbon endowment. Given its small territorial size – about 786 square kilometres – Bahrain holds relatively modest hydrocarbon reserves compared with its Gulf peers.
The kingdom produces about 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil, of which the Awali Field, also known as the Bahrain Field, contributes approximately 42,400 b/d.
Most of Bahrain’s crude production – about 145,000 b/d – comes from the offshore Abu Safah field, located in Gulf waters between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia and shared between Bapco Energies’ subsidiary Bapco Upstream and Saudi Aramco.
Bapco Energies has long pursued additional resources to boost oil and gas output. However, the discovery of the Khalij Al-Bahrain basin in 2018 – its biggest find in decades – has yet to live up to its promise. Initially estimated to hold 80 billion barrels of oil and 10-20 trillion cubic feet of gas, the find has not translated into production at the anticipated scale. Other, smaller exploration efforts with foreign players have also yet to yield the desired results.
The kingdom therefore remains heavily reliant on its larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia, for oil and gas supplies, importing about 350,000 b/d from Aramco via the AB-4 pipeline.
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Bapco Energies published emissions-reduction targets in July 2023, in one of the most detailed disclosures by any state energy enterprise in the GCC. It has also engaged advisers including Boston Consulting Group to help devise a strategy to meet its environmental goals, and Standard Chartered to support financing requirements.
Using 2017 as a baseline year, Bapco Energies has committed to reducing absolute Scope 3 emissions in Bahrain by 30% by 2035, and to reaching net-zero Scope 3 emissions by 2060.
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Bahrain has been laying the groundwork to enable it to tap nuclear power for household and industrial needs in the future.
The kingdom is already operating under a Country Programme Framework (2024–29) with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which establishes regulatory and safety benchmarks that must be in place before any commercial reactor construction begins.
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