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UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

3 April 2023

This package on the UAE's power sector also includes:

> Ewec rules out solar in desalination projects

> Dewa receives K station bid

> Dewa briefs 1.8GW solar bidders

> Italian firms pursue energy transition roles

> Majid al-Futtaim signs 36MW clean energy agreement

> Abu Dhabi eyes power and water contracts extension

There will be no shortage of milestones once November’s Cop28 turns the spotlight onto the UAE’s power generation sector.

Already, Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) has announced that, on 10 February at 2.26 pm, it met 80 per cent of total power demand using renewable and clean energy from its solar and nuclear power plants – supplying roughly 6.2GW of its total 7.7GW system power demand.

Before this, Bruce Smith, Ewec’s executive director for strategy and planning, told MEED that the company was working towards implementing control systems to enable clean and renewable energy to meet up to 100 per cent of power demand “under specific parameters or conditions”.

As things stand, Ewec is set to become the first offtaker in the region to build a utility-scale battery energy storage system (BESS), a key tool to address the intermittency of solar energy production. The company sought advisers for the development of its first two BESS facilities earlier this year.

The two projects will have a minimum capacity of 300MW plus one-hour of reserve-optimised BESS. The facilities are expected to come on-stream by 2026.

From being nearly wholly dependent on thermal power generation as recently as four years ago, these developments offer compelling evidence of the UAE’s commitment to its energy diversification strategy

Higher peak demand not only requires additional thermal and solar generation capacity, but also batteries to enhance system reliability, Ewec noted in a presentation in March.

Based on its latest statement of future capacity requirements, Ewec foresees a 30 per cent peak demand increase from 16.7GW in 2022 to 21.6GW by 2029.

This year’s commissioning of a new power plant in Sharjah – the 1,800MW Hamriyah independent power producer (IPP) – is expected to reduce Ewec’s electricity exports. However, this will be offset by the addition of offshore demand starting in 2026 from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc).

In spite of rising demand warranting expansion in installed generation capacity – and with substantial contracted thermal capacity approaching expiry – Ewec forecasts halving its total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 43 million tonnes a year (t/y) in 2019 to 22 million t/y by 2035.

Ewec needs to install 7.3GW of solar capacity by 2029 and 16GW by 2036, which implies procuring roughly 1GW to 1.5GW of new capacity annually during the period.

By the end of 2023, Ewec’s solar fleet will comprise the 935MW Noor Abu Dhabi project in Sweihan and the 1.5GW Al-Dhafra solar photovoltaic (PV) plant, which is nearing completion.

The procurement process is under way for the emirate’s third utility-scale solar PV IPP, also with a capacity of 1.5GW, in Al-Ajban.

Tendering for a fourth solar PV project, likely to be located in A-Ain, is also expected to begin in the third or fourth quarter of 2023.

This ambitious programme, including an aspiration to enable Ewec’s solar fleets to produce dispatchable loads similar to conventional power plants, makes the BESS projects of paramount importance.

Dubai green story

Dubai’s long-term capacity procurement plan is less clear, although state utility Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa)  has reported a 5.5 per cent increase in demand in the emirate in 2022, to reach 53,180 gigawatt-hours (GWh).

This is half of the 10 per cent growth in 2021, which marked the emirate’s resurgence from the Covid-19 pandemic. 

As of early 2023, over 2GW of clean energy from the Mohammed bin Rashid solar park accounted for 14 per cent of Dewa’s electricity production capacity, which stood at 14.5GW.

Based on the initial plan of 5GW of capacity once the solar park is complete, and with some 1GW still under construction, Dewa is expected to procure at least 2GW more.

The 1.8GW sixth phase of the solar park, which is currently being tendered, accounts for most of the outstanding capacity.

Unlike Abu Dhabi, which plans to expand its thermal generation capacity in light of the demand increase and expansion of intermittent renewable energy, Dubai has already ruled out gas as a feedstock for future greenfield generation capacity.

“We have a relatively new and modern fleet [of thermal power generation plants] that would be operational for another 20 to 30 years,” Saeed Mohammed al-Tayer, Dewa CEO and managing director, said in a forum in Dubai in 2020.

The Dubai Economic Agenda 2033 (D33), which aims to double the size of Dubai’s economy over the next decade and consolidate its position among the top three global cities, is expected to drive power and water demand within the emirate, without compromising its carbon abatement strategy and emissions reduction targets.

Diversification

The UAE already has the GCC’s most diversified electricity production installed capacity, with fleets deriving electricity from solar PV, thermal and nuclear power plants. The region’s first hydroelectric power plant in Hatta in Dubai will further expand the country’s power sources.

The completion of the 1.5GW Al-Dhafra solar IPP in Abu Dhabi and roughly 1GW from the fourth and fifth phases of the MBR solar park in Dubai will drive solar’s share from 8 per cent at the start of the year to 12 per cent by the end 2023. This will cause the overall share of thermal power generation to retreat by three percentage points to 79 per cent, in spite of the completion of the remaining units at Hassyan in Dubai, the Hamriyah IPP in Sharjah and the Fujairah F3 facility.

The three reactors at the Barakah nuclear power plant in Abu Dhabi also contribute an estimated 4.2GW of installed capacity, or roughly 9 per cent of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah’s combined overall capacity, and 18 per cent in Abu Dhabi alone.

From being nearly wholly dependent on thermal power generation as recently as four years ago, these developments offer compelling evidence of the UAE’s commitment to its energy diversification strategy.

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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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    On 21 April, as a fragile ceasefire held between the US and Iran, the Trump administration halted a $500m shipment in cash headed for Iraq, as it sought to clamp down on Iranian-backed Shia militias in the country. 

    That cash, derived from Iraqi oil exports and routed via the US Federal Reserve to the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), is a vital cog in Iraq’s financial arteries, enabling it to cover foreign exchange demand.

    This was not the first time that Iraq’s financial system has felt the US’s warm breath on its neck.

    Back in February 2025, the US Treasury Department blacklisted five Iraqi banks from participating in dollar transactions, citing concerns about their role in illicit financial flows that benefited Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

    Iraq has also itself often circumscribed dollar use within its own financial system.

    In July 2023, the CBI banned 14 banks from conducting dollar transactions in a crackdown on dollar smuggling. In February 2024, it banned a further eight banks from dollar transactions as part of a crackdown on fraud and money laundering.

    Dollar pressure

    The recent halt in US dollar cash shipments has nevertheless added pressure to Iraq’s parallel currency market gap, says Lucila Bonilla, lead emerging market economist at Oxford Economics.  

    “The gap between the parallel exchange rate has widened noticeably against the official peg, to around 20%,” she says.

    “Dollar demand has risen as citizens and traders seek to hedge uncertainty – dollar deposits are up, and there are reports of a notable shift in the composition of cash holdings toward dollars.”

    Ratings agencies see the US move on Iraqi dollar use as a challenge, but one that might not prove too onerous.

    “Iraq can overcome a short-term war as it has $100bn of reserves and its debt profile is bearable,” says Gilbert Hobeika, a director at Fitch Ratings.

    “But a longer-term conflict will hurt Iraq as the economy is reliant on oil revenues and government involvement, while facing at the same time risk from the US stopping delivery of US dollars.”

    How persistent the pressure proves will depend largely on the duration of the Hormuz shock and how the relationship with the US evolves.

    “Forming a new government that is palatable to the US could ease the pressure, though Iraq’s protracted government formation process adds uncertainty to that timeline,” says Bonilla.

    The US-Iran war is putting even more pressure on banks.

    “There are uncertainties with regard to depositors,” says Hobeika. “The public sector banks have weak management and governance structures. Financial reporting is weak, and that puts pressure on asset quality and capitalisation.”

    If the conflict lasts a long time, the government will start withdrawing funds to pay salaries and contractors.

    “That will affect deposits at the public sector banks in the near term,” says Hobeika.

    State-heavy system

    Iraq’s banking system is dominated by a handful of state-owned banks with a market share of 75%-80%, and then 60-plus private banks competing for the remaining 20%-25% of the pie. 

    “Private banks have struggled to compete in a market with limited opportunities, small deposit bases and a narrow range of products, often focusing on very basic activities,” says Lea Hanna, an analyst at Moody’s.

    “In 2019, we had a wave of Islamic banks getting bans on dealing with US dollars – reducing what had been a primary source of business.”

    A few private banks have benefitted since then, namely those with majority ownership by foreign banks such as National Bank of Iraq, a subsidiary of Capital Bank of Jordan, and Bank of Baghdad, a subsidiary of Jordan Kuwait Bank.

    “Supported by their affiliates, these banks are relatively well run compared to domestic peers and have ample capital buffers,” says Hanna.

    “They have captured a large market share of US dollar transfers thanks to their strong US correspondent banking relationships that allow them easier access to US dollars. They have seen a surge in their profitability and an increase in their deposit base.”

    Financial reform

    The CBI has attempted to introduce reforms to the banking system, as part of a wider effort to enable it to channel funding to the private sector.

    In early 2025, it increased the minimum issued and paid-up capital requirement to ID400bn ($305m), along with a requirement to establish correspondent banking relationships for foreign-currency trading. The plan was to increase these in ID50bn increments every six months, to hasten sector consolidation.

    However, of Fitch’s rated banks, just two – state-owned Trade Bank of Iraq and Mansour Bank, a subsidiary of Qatar National Bank – met the full capital requirement.

    “While a lot of banks managed to increase their capital, a number of them didn’t and have been struggling to improve their systems and compliance with anti-terrorism and anti-money laundering regulations,” says Hobeika.

    “These systems take a long time to improve, and it costs the banks too. For that reason, they have agreed with the central bank to postpone implementation to 2027/28.”

    The expectation is that the number of private Iraqi banks will shrink from 60 to about half that number by 2028.

    “Iraq’s banking sector is undergoing a significant overhaul, with the Central Bank pushing through higher capital requirements, improved anti-money-laundering compliance, and a shift towards commercial banks managing their own international correspondent relationships. These moves are welcomed,” says Bonilla.

    But the harder work remains, argues Bonilla: state-owned banks still carry high levels of non-performing loans, weak governance and a history of politically directed lending, while private sector credit remains among the lowest in the region.

    “The stakes are high as the IMF estimates that a comprehensive reform of the financial sector, alongside broader governance and regulatory changes, could double Iraq’s non-oil growth potential over the medium term, adding around 4 percentage points to GDP,” says Bonilla.

    “For now, the reforms address the plumbing. The structural transformation of a banking system to serve the private sector is still largely ahead.”

    Clouded outlook

    So far, Iraq’s financial system seems to have averted a worst-case scenario of large-scale deposit withdrawals related to the Iran conflict.

    Any deposit withdrawals seem to be more related to the introduction of a digital custom system ASYCUDA (Automated System for Customs Data) aimed at helping the government collect revenues, which saw a lot of traders trying to bypass the custom charges.

    “This drove some exporters or traders to source US dollars outside the banking system, in the parallel market, to avoid stricter requirements and up-front payment of customs duties. That has now eased,” says Hanna.

    Looking ahead, Fitch anticipates that most government financing is likely to come from the CBI through indirect purchases of government securities.

    The central bank’s total claims on the central government represented about 52% of the domestic debt stock and 25% of the total debt stock at end-2024, notes the agency.

    It envisages that a smaller portion will come from the government’s cash deposits, anticipated to fall to an average 12% by 2027.

    Fitch says the CBI’s balance sheet limits refinancing risks, while the FX reserves are large enough to absorb the expansion of that balance sheet without putting pressure on the exchange-rate peg with the US dollar.

    Surging foreign direct investment comes as a source of comfort, with annual inflows rising from around $2bn in 2022 to $5bn-$7bn from 2023 onwards. 

    Reform of the financial system will remain at the top of the new government’s in-tray.

    The regional environment is unconducive to this mammoth task, and it can only hope that an end to the conflict would support ongoing Iraqi efforts to build a financial system comparable to that of some of its Gulf neighbours.

    MEED’s June 2026 report on Iraq also includes:

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  • JinkoSolar signs 2GW deal for Abu Dhabi solar project

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    China’s JinkoSolar has signed an agreement with Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) to supply 2GW of photovoltaic (PV) modules for the round-the-clock renewable energy project in Abu Dhabi.

    The agreement covers the supply of JinkoSolar’s Tiger Neo series modules for the project, which is being developed by Masdar in collaboration with Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec).

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    Located on a 670-hectare site in Jebel Ali, the original wastewater facility has a treatment capacity of about 675,000 cm/d following the completion of phase two in 2019, combining approximately 300,000 cm/d from phase one and 375,000 cm/d from phase two.

    The upgraded facility will be capable of treating an additional sewage flow of 100,000 cm/d, with the expansion estimated to cost $300m.

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    UK-headquartered KPMG and UAE-based Tribe Infrastructure are serving as financial advisers on the project.

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  • Iraq LNG project delayed until next year

    13 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Iraq’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal, which has an estimated project value of $450m, is now expected to become operational in 2027 due to delays caused by the regional war and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Work on jetty reinforcement and fixed terminal infrastructure at the Port of Khor Al-Zubair has been delayed, according to a statement from US-based Excelerate Energy, which is contracted to develop the facility.

    In its statement, the company said: “We are revising our full-year guidance to reflect the delayed startup of our Iraq terminal due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.”

    It added: “The Iraq project fundamentals remain unchanged. Looking ahead, we continue to have confidence in our sequenced earnings growth through 2028.”

    In October 2025, Excelerate signed a definitive commercial agreement with a subsidiary of Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity for the development of the country’s first LNG import terminal.

    The integrated project includes a five-year agreement for regasification services and LNG supply, with extension options, and a minimum contracted offtake of 250 million standard cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Excelerate said: “Jetty reinforcement and construction of the fixed terminal infrastructure have been delayed temporarily due to the conflict in the Middle East and the terminal is no longer expected to commence operations in the third quarter of 2026 as previously disclosed.

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    Although Iraq is Opec’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, it is a net natural gas importer because its lack of infrastructure investment has meant that, until 2023, it flared roughly half of the estimated 3.12 billion cf/d of gas produced in association with crude oil.

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    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

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    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
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  • Algeria turns the GCC oil crisis into an economic opportunity

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    Commentary
    Wil Crisp
    Oil & gas reporter

    Algeria’s state-owned oil and gas company, Sonatrach, is taking advantage of concerns about global gas and crude supplies to sign deals and push ahead with major upstream projects.

    In recent weeks, the country has launched an oil and gas licensing round, taken steps to boost crude production in the short term and awarded a $1.1bn oil and gas field development project.

    This comes as shipping remains disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas supply route. The disruption began after the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February 2026, triggering a regional war.

    Algeria’s ramp-up in activity puts it in a stronger position to benefit from higher global energy prices than neighbouring Libya, despite Libya holding Africa’s largest proven oil reserves.

    Libya challenges

    In Libya, officials have sought to advance oil and gas projects, but the business environment remains challenging due to recurring violence and deep political divisions.

    Last month, Libya’s rival legislative bodies approved a unified state budget for the first time in more than 13 years. The Central Bank of Libya confirmed on 11 April that both chambers had endorsed the budget, calling it a key step towards restoring financial stability after prolonged division.

    Contractors expected the agreement to accelerate project activity, but so far the deal has yet to translate into meaningful progress on the ground. Earlier this month, MEED reported that Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) had not yet provided subsidiaries with details of their funding allocations under the new budget.

    Libya’s downstream sector was also disrupted this month by a fresh outbreak of violence. On 8 May, military clashes damaged buildings and vehicles, and forced the country’s largest operating refinery and a nearby oil port to shut for two days. On 10 May, Azzawiya Oil Refining Company, operator of the Zawiya facility, said it had lifted the state of emergency, allowing work to resume.

    Algeria momentum

    While Libya has struggled to capitalise on the current period of higher oil and gas prices, Algeria has significantly increased activity across its hydrocarbons sector.

    Last month, Algeria launched a new bid round offering seven exploration blocks to international companies. The round was launched by the National Agency for the Valorisation of Hydrocarbon Resources (Alnaft), which regulates the upstream sector. The blocks are located in Ouargla, Illizi, Touggourt and El-Bayadh.

    In parallel, Algeria is implementing short-term measures to raise output. On 3 May, the Ministry of Oil & Gas said the country plans to increase average production by 6,000 barrels a day in June.

    Algeria is also pursuing regional export opportunities. Earlier this month, officials signed a framework agreement to enable crude supplies from Algeria to Egypt.

    Turkiye has also announced plans to renew and expand its liquefied natural gas (LNG) agreement with Algeria. Turkiye’s Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on 8 May that annual volumes could rise to 6.5 billion cubic metres, up from the current 4.4 billion cubic metres a year. The existing agreement is due to expire in September 2027.

    Another sign of momentum is the award of a $1.1bn contract for phase two of the Hassi Bir Rekaiz oil and gas field development. The contract was signed by Egypt’s Petrojet and Italian engineering and contracting company Arkad. Petrojet’s share is estimated at about $600m and Arkad’s at about $500m. The client is Groupement HBR, a joint venture of Sonatrach and Thailand’s PTTEP.

    Overall, while Libya continues to face obstacles to building sustained momentum in its oil and gas sector, Algeria is pursuing multiple initiatives that are likely to deliver economic benefits in the short, medium and long term.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16803345/main4150.jpg
    Wil Crisp