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Riyadh takes the diplomatic initiative

2 April 2025

 

Saudi Arabia has been at the centre of regional diplomatic activity through the early months of 2025, positioning itself as an intermediary in the Ukraine conflict and at the forefront of engagement with the new regime in Syria.

The role of regional mediator is one that has in recent years been more closely associated with Qatar – particularly in relation to the Gaza conflict – and, on occasion, Oman.

Riyadh’s decision to throw its weight behind diplomatic initiatives is part of what Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Centre, has described as a “bold multi-alignment strategy”, which seeks to balance Riyadh’s economic and security concerns and its regional leadership ambitions.

Multipronged initiatives

The kingdom has gained plaudits for its efforts to resolve the Ukraine war in particular. Following his talks with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) in Jeddah on 11 March, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Saudi Arabia provides a crucial platform for diplomacy, and we appreciate this.”

Zelenskyy added that he had “a detailed discussion on the steps and conditions needed to end the war” with the crown prince.

The previous month, US secretary of state Marco Rubio had said Saudi Arabia had played an “indispensable role” in setting up bilateral negotiations between Moscow and Washington to discuss the conflict.

Russia’s President Vladamir Putin has also praised the Saudi leadership for providing a platform for high-level meetings with the US and “creating a very friendly atmosphere”.

Whether all this leads to a lasting peace deal for Ukraine remains to be seen, but Saudi Arabia’s attitude to conflict may be coloured somewhat by its own experiences over the past decade in Yemen.

It is now 10 years since it launched a bombing campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels in March 2015, and the war has not gone as Riyadh had hoped, with the Houthis proving far more resilient than anticipated.

Saudi Arabia’s southern border has at least been relatively quiet since a truce took hold in 2022, but a comprehensive peace deal has proved elusive.

Riyadh has also been re-engaging in the Levant this year, in light of the new regime in Damascus.

The new Syrian president Ahmed Al-Sharaa travelled to Riyadh in early February, on his first trip abroad since taking power. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan had been in Damascus a week earlier.

There are some key issues at stake for Riyadh. The regime of President Bashar Al-Assad had overseen the industrial-scale production of the amphetamine-type stimulant Captagon, much of which was smuggled into Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Saudi efforts to disrupt the trade – both at its borders and via lobbying of the Syrian authorities – had failed to stem the flow of drugs.

In addition, Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, has pointed out that between 500,000 and 2.5 million de facto Syrian refugees are thought to be living in Saudi Arabia – a fact that gives Riyadh a clear interest in Syria’s stability, particularly if it wants to encourage them to return home.

“Saudi Arabia views the fall of the Assad regime as an opportunity to reassert its influence in the Levant,” he asserted in a recent commentary.

The ousting of Assad in late 2024 and the recent Israeli campaign against Hezbollah has also changed the situation on the ground in Lebanon, encouraging Saudi Arabia to reconsider its approach there too.

MBS hosted Lebanon’s recently elected President Joseph Aoun on 3 March. Following their meeting, Saudi Arabia said it would look again at allowing Lebanese exports to Saudi Arabia and letting its own citizens travel to Lebanon.

Manoeuvring around Trump

The Saudi diplomatic push may also be motivated by a desire to ensure that relations with Washington remain on a positive footing in the wake of Donald Trump’s re-election as US president.

At first, it appeared that the bilateral relations would follow a similar pattern to Trump’s first term.

In January, MBS said in a phone call with Trump that Saudi Arabia was planning to invest some $600bn in the US over the coming four years, which the US president suggested should probably be increased to $1tn. This echoed the signing of $460bn-worth of defence deals when Trump made Saudi Arabia his first foreign trip as president in May 2017.

Riyadh appears to have conceded to Trump’s higher figure, with the US president saying in early March: “I said I'll go if you pay $1tn to American companies, meaning the purchase over a four-year period of $1tn, and they've agreed to do that. So, I'm going to be going there.”

However, other aspects of the bilateral relationship are more difficult and less predictable. Trump had been pushing Saudi Arabia to join Bahrain, the UAE and Morocco in normalising relations with Israel, but in light of the war in Gaza and Trump’s own plans for the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from the strip, that looks like a stretch too far.

Trump will nevertheless have been pleased by the decision by Saudi Arabia and the other members of the Opec+ bloc in early March to unwind some of the production restrictions they had voluntarily agreed.

From April onwards, the eight-strong group will start to bring 2.2 million barrels a day back onto the market over the course of 18 months. That fits in with Trump’s call in January, soon after taking office, for Riyadh and Opec to do more to help bring oil prices down.

However, that decision may also create fiscal challenges for the Saudi government, as any rise in production could be more than offset by lower prices.

Saudi Aramco has announced plans to trim its dividend payouts this year to $85.4bn – down from $124bn in 2024. These payments are a vital source of revenues both for the central government and for its Public Investment Fund (which holds a 16% stake in Aramco)

All that could force some public sector spending constraint in the kingdom, in a sign that balancing diplomacy and financial interests is not always straightforward.

MEED’s April 2025 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

> UPSTREAM: Saudi oil and gas spending to surpass 2024 level
> DOWNSTREAM: Aramco’s recalibrated chemical goals reflect realism
> POWER: Saudi power sector enters busiest year
> WATER: Saudi water contracts set another annual record
> CONSTRUCTION: Reprioritisation underpins Saudi construction
> TRANSPORT: Riyadh pushes ahead with infrastructure development
> BANKING: Saudi banks work to keep pace with credit expansion

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Dominic Dudley

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    This package also includes: Beaches and luxury drive regional tourism

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    This package also includes: Region’s hotel projects pipeline balloons

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    Diversifying its offering is a key part of Saudi Arabia’s tourism strategy, which aims to attract 70 million international visitors by 2030

    Beach resorts

    While the GCC’s coastal regions and islands have been developed for tourism for decades, they are increasingly becoming magnets for travellers. According to GlobalData’s Q2 2024 survey, 54% of respondents globally prefer sun and beach holidays, a trend that the GCC is well-positioned to capitalise on.

    Saudi Arabia is tapping into this demand with development projects on the country’s west coast, including the Red Sea Project, Amaala and several schemes within the Neom masterplan. 

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    Region’s hotel projects pipeline balloons

    Main image: High-end beachfront resorts such as Red Sea Global’s Shebara will be vital in achieving Saudi Arabia’s tourism targets. Credit: Red Sea Global – Shebara

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    Colin Foreman
  • Muted public spending hinders global tunnelling

    4 April 2025

     

    This package also includes: Traffic drives construction underground

    The pipeline of tunnel construction projects around the world as tracked by GlobalData stands at $1.3tn, encompassing projects from announcement to execution.

    The total pipeline value reflects the overall values of projects that are either entirely tunnels or that have tunnels as an integral part of the work. The project pipeline includes tunnelling works across a range of sectors, including road and railway development, as well as water and sewerage.

    The pipeline of tunnel construction projects around the world currently stands at $1.3tn

    Subdued spending

    Public spending is anticipated to remain muted globally in the short term, as governments are still trying to curtail expenditure to reduce public debt, thereby constraining investments in public infrastructure. This is affecting the demand for tunnel construction, which heavily relies on public infrastructure development. Elevated construction material prices, high interest rates and labour and skill shortages are expected to discourage new investment, further reducing demand for tunnel construction.

    These challenges have already impacted project viability, leading to the withdrawal or postponement of funding for 50 projects in Australia’s $78.6bn infrastructure investment programme due to cost increases of over $21bn. The conflicts in Russia and Ukraine, the situation in Gaza and disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea are weighing on new investment levels, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and North Africa region due to increased uncertainty.

    However, this decrease in new tunnel investment is not expected to be uniform globally, as China’s significant infrastructure investment drive, the US’ Infrastructure and Jobs Act and India’s various infrastructure investment programmes are driving new investment in their respective regions.

    > Middle East and North Africa (Mena)
    The Mena region has a tunnel construction pipeline valued at $128.6bn. The UAE is one of the leading markets, with $25.4bn of projects that are mainly for metro systems and water and sewage tunnels. Across the region, economic factors like high debt and lower oil revenues may hinder the progress of these projects in the future.
    > Western Europe

    Western Europe has a tunnel construction project pipeline valued at $329.5bn, with Switzerland leading with $60.6bn of projects, follwed by Germany with $56.8bn. Notable projects include the Turin-Lyon tunnel and the Genoa underwater tunnel. Projects in pre-execution and execution stages total $222.8bn, with the highest-value project being Zurich’s $38.8bn CST (underground cargo) Freight Metro Tunnel.

    > Northeast Asia

    Northeast Asia’s tunnel construction pipeline is valued at $327.7bn, with China contributing $220.3bn, including the $42.4bn Dalian-Yantai undersea railway tunnel. Japan has projects worth $101.3bn, primarily the $65.2bn Tokyo to Nagoya Maglev Railway Line. Most projects are in later development stages, totalling $198.3bn, or 69.8% of the pipeline.

    > Australasia

    Australasia’s tunnel construction pipeline totals $150.1bn, with Australia holding $112.9bn, about 75% of the region’s value. The largest project is the $87bn Melbourne Suburban Rail Loop, a 90km rail loop with 13 stations. Construction on six stations began in 2022, with the entire project expected to finish by 2050, though rising costs and labour shortages may affect this.

    > North America

    North America’s tunnel projects are valued at $92.4bn, with $63.6bn in pre-execution and execution stages. The pipeline includes 921.8km of tunnels, primarily in the US. Railway tunnels are the largest segment at $40.7bn, with the Hudson River Rail Tunnel being the highest-value project at $16bn.

    > Southeast Asia

    Southeast Asia’s tunnel pipeline is valued at $91.3bn, with $55.1bn under construction. Singapore leads with $45.2bn, mainly from rail tunnel projects. The Land Transport Authority awarded a $199m contract for tunnels connecting MRT stations as part of the Cross Island Line’s second phase.

    > Eastern Europe

    Eastern Europe’s pipeline is valued at $56.3bn, with $46.9bn in pre-execution and execution stages. Major contributors include Turkiye, Czechia and Romania, which has the largest share at $16.3bn. The $9bn Bucharest Metro Line 5 is a key project expected to complete by 2033, with spending projected to rise in the coming years.

    > South Asia

    South Asia’s tunnel construction pipeline is valued at $47.9bn, with India contributing $31.9bn, primarily from road tunnels. A notable project is the $1.3bn Thane to Borivali underground tunnel. The pipeline includes 2,043.7km of developments, with spending expected to reach $1.8bn in 2024.

    > Latin America

    Latin America has a growing tunnel construction pipeline valued at $30.3bn, with $28.7bn in later development stages. The region includes 276.2km of projects, with Colombia leading at 92.1km. The highest-value project is the $9.6bn Bogota Metro, which began construction in early 2021.

    > Sub-Saharan Africa

    Sub-Saharan Africa’s tunnel construction pipeline is valued at $6.7bn, with 63.7% in pre-execution and execution stages. The pipeline includes 1,580km of projects, primarily in Tanzania, Ethiopia and Kenya. Spending may reach $685.4m in 2025, but investment constraints may limit new projects.

    In conclusion, while the global tunnel construction industry faces challenges due to muted spending, high construction material prices and geopolitical uncertainties, significant infrastructure investment initiatives in countries like China, the US and India are expected to continue driving new investment.

    Traffic drives construction underground 

     

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    Colin Foreman