Unlocking AI’s carbon conundrum

31 January 2025

 

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Abu Dhabi has recently launched a $6bn project that combines 5,200MW of solar and 19 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery energy storage capacity to deliver 1,000MW of round-the-clock renewable power capacity, a world first. 

The project addresses the intermittency of renewable energy, which UAE Industry & Advanced Technology Minister Sultan Al-Jaber describes as the “moonshot challenge” of our time.

The goal is to deliver clean baseload capacity much more quickly and at a lower price than a gas or nuclear power plant.

At approximately $60 a megawatt-hour, the project aligns with the mandate of Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) to deliver the lowest-cost energy transition.

Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) will develop the project, which will help to boost its gross capacity, in line with expanding its renewable energy portfolio to 100GW by 2030.

Located on a land area of 90 square kilometres, the solar and battery project is due to become operational by 2027, Masdar’s chief operating officer, Abdulaziz Alobaidli, said on 14 January.

This is in addition to the 1.5GW of annual renewable capacity that Ewec intends to procure until at least the mid-2030s, in line with decarbonising the emirate’s electricity system and reaching net zero by 2050.

Following the project’s launch, Masdar announced the preferred engineering, procurement and construction and other sub-
contractors for the scheme. 

AI and power link 

In December, the US government reportedly approved the export of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips to a Microsoft-operated facility in the UAE, as part of the technology giant’s $1.5bn partnership with Mubadala-backed AI firm G42.

Three months earlier, in September, Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, deputy ruler of Abu Dhabi and national security adviser, met with Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, in Washington to seal an agreement known as the Common Principles for Cooperation on AI, following a meeting between UAE President Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and then-US President Joe Biden.

The meeting took place a few days after US-based equity investment firm BlackRock announced a $100bn tech investment platform called Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership.

The fund’s partners include Mubadala-backed AI fund MGX, which aims to build $100bn in assets under management; US-based Global Infrastructure Partners; and Microsoft.

In January, MGX teamed up with US tech giant Oracle, Japan’s Softbank and ChatGPT creator Open AI to form the Stargate project, a joint venture that aims to invest $500bn in building AI infrastructure in the US over the next four years.

Abu Dhabi has not denied the link between its clean energy capacity buildout and the UAE’s national, and perhaps international, AI strategy.

A social media post on 14 January by President Mohamed Bin Zayed confirmed the 1GW solar plus battery project will directly support Abu Dhabi’s AI plans.

“The project will help power advancements in AI and emerging technologies, supporting delivery of the UAE National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence 2031 and the Net Zero by 2050 strategic initiative,” he said.

Investing in and developing AI infrastructure and applications at home and abroad is now a UAE government priority. It will create jobs and new revenues, and will boost efficiencies in every facet of governance and business.

“The UAE is well positioned [in the developing AI industry],” says Michael Liebreich, managing partner at UK firm EcoPragma Capital, noting that it has “the energy status, geographical advantage and regulatory framework”.

In light of a new US regulation made public in January that restricts access to US-made AI chips, he adds that “you don’t want to have a situation where the UAE will have to choose between one or the other”, referring to the ongoing power struggle over AI between China, an important energy and trade partner of the UAE, and the US, which is a vital political ally.

Investing in and developing AI infrastructure and applications … is now a UAE government priority

Choosing sides

It appears that this choice has been made previously, however.

In an interview in early 2024, G42 CEO Peng Xiao said that his firm is cutting ties with Chinese hardware suppliers in favour of US counterparts, adding: “We cannot work with both sides.”

In addition, in December, Axios – the US media outlet that reported the clearance of AI chip exports by the US to the Microsoft and G42 facility in Abu Dhabi – suggested that the deal is part of efforts by the US government to elbow China out of the UAE’s expanding tech industry.

In Abu Dhabi, Ewec is tasked not only with decarbonising its electricity system by integrating solar and nuclear plants into its gas-dominated power-generation fleets, but also with ensuring 24×7 clean and cheap baseload capacity gets delivered to a project that is a national priority.

An expanding AI industry will also increase the scope for environmental, social and governance (ESG) compliance.

While it is widely accepted that the use of advanced AI solutions such as large- or small-language models or agentic AI for industrial applications can enable some sectors to cut emissions, AI requires hyperscale data centres, and data centres generally are as polluting as the airline industry.

Although the high temperatures and water scarcity of the Middle East can be addressed by another ESG-sensitive industry – seawater desalination – these factors can lead data centres in the region to be more carbon positive than those in other geographies.

For this reason, Abu Dhabi’s 5.2GW/19GWh project is considered a major milestone, potentially blazing a trail that other regions can follow – assuming it is implemented on time and within budget, and despite opposing opinions on its technical and commercial feasibility.


Main image: Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, deputy ruler of Abu Dhabi and national security adviser, and Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, signed a cooperation agreement on AI in September 2024. Credit: Wam


Trump 2.0 targets technology


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> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
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    Aramco spent a record $5bn on offshore EPCI contracts in 2024 and was expected to surpass that in 2025. However, it awarded no Contract Release Purchase Orders (CRPOs) in the first half of the year, fuelling apprehension among contractors and suppliers.

    In July, Aramco dispelled speculation by awarding five tenders worth over $3bn. The CRPOs are numbers 150, 157, 158, 159 and 160, and involve EPCI work and infrastructure upgrades at the Abu Safah, Berri, Manifa, Marjan and Zuluf offshore oil fields.

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    Onshore projects advance

    In parallel with the Safaniya offshore expansion, Aramco is tendering a separate project to build onshore surface and processing facilities to handle additional volumes of oil and associated gas generated by the expanded offshore infrastructure.

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    Ramping up gas production

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    Contractors are preparing bids for several EPC packages under the Shedgum and Uthmaniya gas compression project.


    MEED’s October 2025 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes:

    > ECONOMY: Riyadh looks to adjust investment approach
    > BANKING: New funding sources solve Saudi liquidity challenge
    > GAS: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait accelerate Dorra gas field development
    > POWER: Saudi Arabia accelerates power transformation
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction pivots from gigaprojects to events
    > TRANSPORT: Infrastructure takes centre stage in Saudi strategy

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  • Saudi Arabia accelerates power transformation Mark Dowdall

    11 September 2025

     

    It has been a busy year for Saudi Arabia’s power sector, which has recorded a steady flow of project activity in 2025, with contracts worth almost $16bn awarded to date.

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    SEC investment

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    The project, situated in Medina Province, is the third such project tendered under the fourth round of Saudi Arabia’s NREP.

    Data breakdown

    A breakdown of contract data for the year confirms the shifting balance of investment. Solar power accounts for the largest share of contracts awarded so far this year, at $6.6bn, reflecting the government’s push to expand renewable generation capacity. Wind power follows with $3.9bn, underlining the emergence of utility-scale wind farms.

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    MEED’s October 2025 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes:

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    > GAS: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait accelerate Dorra gas field development
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction pivots from gigaprojects to events
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  • Qatar tenders completion of 39km strategic trunk sewer Mark Dowdall

    11 September 2025

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has issued a tender for the completion of the remaining works on the strategic trunk sewer from Sheehaniya to the Doha North sewage treatment works (DN STW).

    The package also includes the first phase of a new sewage terminal pumping station at the DN STW site.

    The tender, numbered PWA/GTC/26/2025, has a bid submission deadline of 30 September.

    A tender bond of QR12m ($3.3m) is required, and tender documents are priced at QR45,000.

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    Sheehaniya Terminal Pumping Station​​​​​​​

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  • Riyadh looks to adjust investment approach Dominic Dudley

    11 September 2025

     

    Yasir Al-Rumayyan, governor of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), is preparing to set out a new investment approach for the $1tn sovereign wealth fund he runs, telling an event in Washington on 8 September that “in the coming two months or so, we will set the new strategy for the PIF”.

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    Al-Rumayyan described it as “a continuation from the original strategy”, but, as yet, has not provided any further details. The fact that the state-owned fund is planning to change or evolve could, however, be taken as an implicit acknowledgement that all is not going as planned for the government’s efforts to remodel the economy.

    There have been a number of other recent signs of trouble, not least for the PIF and the other stalwart of the economy, Saudi Aramco.

    The PIF’s recent annual report for 2024 showed a 19% rise in assets under management to SR3.4tn, but the fund also cut the valuation of its gigaprojects by 12%, amid well-documented problems at some of its key projects.

    On 5 August, Aramco meanwhile reported a 14% year-on-year fall in net profits for the first half of 2025 to $48.7bn, amid a 15% drop in average oil prices. Despite that, its dividend payments crept up by 4%, while its debts increased by 25% to $3bn. 

    Seen together, such developments point to some wider problems with the government’s Vision 2030 diversification strategy, launched in 2016. In recent years, the PIF has been steadily increasing its domestic investments – in large part because international investors have not been putting money into the Saudi economy at anywhere near the rate hoped. Changing that trend is a critical test for Riyadh, but is also more difficult to pull off at a time of lower oil prices.

    There have been a lot of changes in the business environment in a short period of time and it can take a bit of time to bed down and for people to get comfortable with that
    Toby Iles, Jadwa Investment

    The Ministry of Investment reported on 3 September that inward foreign direct investment (FDI) had grown by 24% last year to reach SR119bn ($31.7bn), but that is still a long way short of the annual target of $100bn by 2030.

    Amine Mati, the IMF’s mission chief for Saudi Arabia, said at an event hosted by the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington on 4 September that “FDI is coming, it's still not the numbers that we would like to see”.

    The reforms brought in over recent years may yet help to turn this around, but it is taking longer than some in Riyadh might hope.

    “There have been a lot of changes in the business environment in a short period of time and it can take a bit of time to bed down and for people to get comfortable with that,” said Toby Iles, chief economist at Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment.

    “I think it's important to reserve a bit of judgement on the FDI numbers for now and, of course, to remember that that 2030 target is both very high and also the target for 2030, not for now.”

    Grounds for optimism

    There are nevertheless various more positive signs in the market. Inflation appears to be contained at around 2%, home ownership levels are rising and unemployment is at a record low, with youth and female unemployment rates halving over the past four years.

    Overall, the Saudi economy – like those of the rest of the GCC – has so far avoided being too badly affected by regional instability or the global trade tensions prompted by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

    This can be seen in the continued growth in non-oil activity. According to the latest IMF report on the Saudi economy, released in early August, non-oil GDP grew by 4.5% last year, driven by the retail, hospitality and construction sectors. Public and private sector investments in transport systems, supply chains and new industries from tourism to electric vehicles are helping to underpin economic activity.

    Opec+ production cuts caused a 4.4% decline in oil GDP last year and left overall growth at around 2%, but the voluntary cuts have been unwound and Saudi crude output is now rising. Mati pointed out that a 1 million b/d increase in production can offset a $10 drop in oil prices: “People always talk about oil price, but forget to talk about oil production.”

    The IMF’s short-term forecast is for GDP to grow by 3.6% this year and 3.9% in 2026, helped by robust domestic demand, including government-led projects, and higher oil production. Others are predicting slightly higher numbers. Naif Alghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, said: “We expect maybe it's a bit higher: maybe just slightly shy of 5%.”

    Economic activity is being supported by fairly robust public spending, which has not dipped in the way it has in previous periods of lower oil prices. The IMF expects the budget deficit to be around 4% of GDP this year, but Mati said “there’s no need to cut spending to get back to the deficit target”, with the reforms and adjustments already made likely being enough to stabilise the situation without further action, he said.

    Project spending is significantly down this year, but Dubai-based bank Emirates NBD has said spending on projects will remain a key driver of Saudi Arabia's economic growth. The country has around $443bn-worth of projects under execution, according to MEED Projects – with the majority of them in the power, construction and gas sectors, not in the PIF’s troubled gigaprojects portfolio. The country has a further $208bn-worth of project work in the prequalification and bidding phases and due for imminent award.

    For all the efforts to encourage more private sector, non-oil activity, the main factors that will govern the trajectory of the economy in the coming years remain oil prices and government spending.

    “The government's pretty mindful of striking this balance between pushing the economic transformation agenda and maintaining strong fiscal external metrics,” said Iles.

    “I think the speed of travel for the economy is a function of how that pans out, and obviously, the oil market is part of the determinant of where the speedometer ends up.”


    MEED’s October 2025 special report on Saudi Arabia also includes:

    > BANKING: New funding sources solve Saudi liquidity challenge
    > GAS: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait accelerate Dorra gas field development
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction pivots from gigaprojects to events
    > TRANSPORT: Infrastructure takes centre stage in Saudi strategy

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/14648442/main.gif
    Dominic Dudley
  • Qatar tenders Wadi Al-Banat infrastructure contract Yasir Iqbal

    11 September 2025

     

    Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has tendered a contract inviting firms to bid for the construction of roads and infrastructure in Wadi Al-Banat North zone 70.

    The tender was floated on 3 September with a bid submission date of 30 September.

    The contract duration is three years from the start of construction.

    The notice follows Ashghal’s awarding of two contracts worth QR3.5bn ($961m) for the operations and maintenance of two schemes in Qatar.

    The contracts were awarded to the local subsidiary of Waagner Biro, which is owned by French firm Egis.

    The first contract is worth QR2.6bn ($713m) and covers the operations and maintenance of strategic highways.

    The other contract, valued at QR898m ($246m), covers the operations and maintenance of intelligent transportation systems.

    Market overview

    After 2019, there was a consistent year-on-year decline in contract awards in Qatar’s construction and transport sectors. The total value of awards in that year was $13.5bn, but by 2023 it had fallen to just over $1.2bn.

    In 2024, the value of project contract awards increased to $1.7bn, bucking the downward trend in the market in the preceding four years.

    Of last year’s figure, the construction sector accounted for contract awards of over $1.2bn, while transport contract awards were about $200m.

    There are strategic projects worth more than $5bn in the bidding phase, and these are expected to provide renewed impetus to the construction and transportation market, presenting opportunities for contractors in the near term.


    READ THE SEPTEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Doha’s Olympic bid; Kuwait’s progress on crucial reforms reinforces sentiment; Downstream petrochemicals investments take centre stage

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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    Yasir Iqbal