meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Bahrain banking works to scale up

7 November 2024

 

Bahrain’s banking sector is getting more concentrated. Earlier this year, the local Islamic lender Al-Salam Bank announced the completion of its acquisition of the Bahrain subsidiary of Kuwait Finance House (KFH Bahrain, also sharia-compliant).

Another big merger is in the works in Bahrain. National Bank of Bahrain (NBB), which has a $3.2bn market cap, has been conducting evaluation studies on a proposed merger with its rival Bank of Bahrain & Kuwait (BBK), the latter valued at $2.4bn.

The kingdom’s sharia-compliant sector has been the focus of much of this merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, with NBB getting the ball rolling in 2020 with its acquisition of Bahrain Islamic Bank.

At the end of 2023, KFH and Bahrain-based Ahli United Bank (AUB) completed their union, with the latter’s balance sheet converted to Islamic banking operations, thereby increasing the industry’s market share in Bahrain.

Analysts see these moves as a positive for a sector that has too many lenders relative to the size of the market.  

“We see ongoing consolidation in the banking sector as an opportunity to create fewer and stronger banks, which could reduce overcapacity in the system and support profitability,” says an S&P Global Ratings analyst.

“With close to 30 retail banks serving a population of 1.5 million, we believe the system is overbanked, which is one of the main reasons Bahraini authorities have been encouraging banking consolidation.”

Overbanked market

The Bahraini banking system is smaller and relatively more overbanked than its GCC counterparts, with a larger number of domestically incorporated banks relative to its population.

“It wouldn’t be surprising to see more banks joining forces to build scale, creating opportunities whether domestically or regionally,” says Lea Hanna, lead analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Ratings.

Consolidation should help Bahraini banks strengthen, building up their balance sheet prowess and improving efficiency by eliminating duplication.

Having another Bahraini bank join the Gulf’s top tier of banks – as the planned NBB-BBK tie-up would do – would also be another big win for the country’s banking sector.

“One key driver for M&A is about achieving scalability. We have seen in multiple GCC systems banks joining forces to create a national champion, allowing it to scale up its operations,” says Hanna.

Local banks are already showing decent metrics, even if not on the scale of the GCC’s more dynamic banking sectors of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Profitability remains strong for most retail banks, supported by higher margins and moderating credit losses.

As S&P notes, some Bahraini banks have seen an increase in their credit losses, but this is related to their activities outside the country.

However, the agency’s analyst notes that margins are likely to moderate in line with interest rate cuts similar to those in other GCC countries. As such, it forecasts a systemwide return on average assets to drop 90-100 basis points (bps) from 110bps in 2023.

“In Bahrain, we expect credit growth to average 3% during 2024-26 as compared to an average of 2% in 2022-23,” says the S&P analyst.

“With the expected decline in interest rates (we expect a total of 225bps cut from the Fed by the end of 2025 inclusive of the 50bps already delivered in Sept), we expect retail sector demand – mainly subsidised housing finance – to support private sector lending growth.”

At the same time, higher non-oil growth is likely to result in some opportunities in corporate lending. According to S&P, Bahraini lending growth is comparable to Kuwait’s, but below that of other GCC countries.

Moody’s expects loan performance to remain relatively unchanged. The ratings agency sees the government’s role as the primary employer maintaining low unemployment levels and supporting asset quality. 

“Bahraini banks’ financial performance has been sound and broadly stable across solvency and liquidity indicators. We have a stable outlook assigned to the overall banking system, and that still holds,” says Hanna.

“One area of slight pressure we’re seeing is on profitability. Banks have enjoyed higher margins on the back of rate hikes, and now, with the reversal of the rate cycle, we can expect a bit of margin pressure, even if the easing is really a gradual return to the historical level.”

Emerging challenges

There will be risks to the outlook.

According to S&P, Bahraini banks are mainly funded by domestic deposits, as are their GCC peers. At the same time, Bahraini retail banks’ net external debt more than doubled to 33% of systemwide domestic loans by 31 July 2204, compared with 14% at the end of 2021.

However, with a large portion of the banking sector’s external debt coming from GCC countries – and thus remaining stable – this reduces the risk associated with external debt.

Real estate exposure is one risk facing retail lenders. According to S&P, this segment contributed approximately 1% of total lending, including real estate and construction, or 30% of corporate exposures at the end of August 2024.

“Based on the performance of top retail banks, we expect non-performing loans (NPLs) to increase to about 5.2% in 2024 compared with 4.8% in 2023 due to still high interest rates and subdued real estate demand,” says the S&P analyst.

The agency expects NPLs to moderate slightly in 2025 from an average of 5% in 2023-24, aided by interest rate cuts, a small uptick in real estate transactions and improving hospitality sector performance.

Similarly, under base-case assumptions, credit losses will hover at about 70bps in 2024, up from about 50bps in 2023, and then decline to about 50bps by 2026.

One challenge is related to the limited opportunities in the domestic market.

“On the lending side, the economy is not growing at a pace where banks are provided with huge opportunities. It’s a small and saturated market compared to Saudi Arabia, for example, where the big government-led projects are under way and banks are benefitting from the high credit demand,” says Hanna.

And this is where the M&A activity ticks some important boxes.

Larger entities will have greater reach beyond Bahrain’s borders, giving them a better chance of gaining exposure in larger banking markets across the Middle East and North Africa.

All eyes will be on the NBB-BBK merger and potentially others to follow in 2025.

ECONOMY: Bahrain’s economic growth momentum falters
OIL & GAS: Bapco Energies sets sights on clean energy goals
POWER & WATER: Manama jumpstarts utility sector
CONSTRUCTION: Bahrain construction struggles to keep pace
INDUSTRY: Alba positions for the future

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12866735/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Lowest bidder changes for Dubai Metro Blue Line

    22 November 2024

     

    Register for MEED's 14-day trial access 

    The team of Spain’s FCC, Beijing-based China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) and France’s Alstom has emerged as the low bidder for the Blue Line extension to the Dubai Metro network after revised bids were submitted on 21 November.

    The team submitted an offer of AED19.8bn after the project client, Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA), asked bidders to submit proposals with alternatives to reduce the price.

    The consortium’s price is nearly 18% lower than its original base offer of AED24.1bn submitted on 8 October.

    The second-lowest price on 21 November was the AED20.3bn bid submitted by a consortium of India’s Larsen & Toubro, China’s Powerchina, the local Wade Adams and Hitachi.

    The third-lowest bid was an offer of AED20.6bn submitted by a consortium of Turkiye’s Limak Holding, Mapa Group, also of Turkiye, and the Hong Kong office of China Railway Rolling Stock Corporation (CRRC).

    The RTA had received another round of updated offers a week earlier on 14 November. That time the Limak/Mapa/CRCC team submitted the lowest bid with a price of AED21.7bn.

    For the first round of revised offers on 7 November, the group of China Tiesiju Civil Engineering Group (CTCE), Egypt’s Arab Contractors, the local Binladin Contracting Group and Spain’s CAF submitted the lowest-priced revised base offer of AED22.2bn.

    The CTCE/Arab Contractors/Binladin/CAF group submitted the lowest base offer when the bids were first submitted on 6 October.  

    The design-and-build contractor for the Blue Line will be responsible for all civil works, electromechanical works, rolling stock and rail systems. After completing the project, the contractor will assist with maintenance and operations for an initial three-year period.

    The Blue Line will connect the existing Red and Green lines. It will have a total length of 30 kilometres (km), 15.5km underground and 14.5km above ground.

    The line will have 14 stations, seven of which will be elevated. There will be five underground stations, including one interchange station, and two elevated transfer stations connected to the existing Centrepoint and Creek stations.

    The scope of the contract also includes the supply of 28 driverless trains, the construction of a depot to accommodate up to 60 trains and the construction of all associated roads, facilities and utility diversion works.

    The detailed scope of work for the project includes:

    • Civil works, including detailed design and construction of architectural and structural components (including viaducts, tunnels and stations)
    • Design and execution of electromechanical works
    • Design, procurement and delivery of operation and control systems for rail, stations and facilities
    • Design, manufacturing and supply of rolling stock

    UAE Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, approved the Blue Line extension project last year. In a post on social media network X, formerly Twitter, he said the project will cost AED18bn ($4.9bn) and will have a length of 30km, half of which will be underground.

    He added that the extensions will transport 320,000 passengers a day and serve a population of about 1 million people living in areas such as Festival City, International City, Rashidiya, Warqa, Mirdif, Silicon Oasis and Academic City.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12972366/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Silk Road Fund to co-invest $2.8bn in Masdar projects

    22 November 2024

    China’s Silk Road Fund (SRF) has agreed to invest up to RMB20bn ($2.8bn) in projects alongside Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) in renewable energy projects across developing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries.

    Under the agreement, Masdar and Silk Road Fund will establish a strategic partnership to pursue co-investment opportunities in renewable energy projects developed, invested in or operated by Masdar.

    China's BRI envisages connecting Asia, Europe, Africa and other parts of the world through a network of infrastructure and trade projects.

    Masdar’s chief executive Mohammed Jameel Al-Ramahi and Silk Road Fund chairwoman Zhu Jun signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) for the planned cooperation at the recent Cop29 climate summit held in Baku, Azerbaijan.

    Masdar has significant investments in the Middle East, Central Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa, many of which are participants in the Belt and Road Initiative.

    The company said it will continue to invest in these regions as part of its strategy to reach 100GW renewable energy capacity by 2030.

    SRF’s renewable power portfolio totals more than 7,000MW in Belt and Road regions, including the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America.

    The UAE has been an active partner in the BRI since the initiative was launched and has already invested $10bn in a joint China-UAE investment fund to support BRI projects in East Africa.

    Photo credit: Pixabay (for illustrative purposes only) 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12972007/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Kahramaa awards Facility E contract

    22 November 2024

     

    Qatar state utility General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) has awarded a contract to develop and operate Qatar’s Facility E independent water and power producer (IWPP) project to the sole bidder led by Japan’s Sumitomo Corporation.

    According to a source close to the project, the project’s power and water-purchase agreement (PWPA) is due to be signed on 25 November.

    The Facility E IWPP scheme will have a power generation capacity of 2,300MW and a water desalination capacity of 100 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD).

    MEED reported in July that Sumitomo had submitted a proposal for the contract. It leads a consortium that comprises fellow Japanese utility developer Shikoku Electric, Seoul-headquartered Korea Overseas Infrastructure & Urban Development Corporation and Korea Southern Power Company.

    The developer consortium’s engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) partner is South Korea’s Samsung C&T.   

    The contract to develop the Facility E IWPP was first tendered in 2019. The three teams that submitted bids for the contract in August 2020 were:   

    • Engie (France) / Mitsui (Japan) / Yonden (Shikoku Electric, Japan)
    • Sumitomo / Kansai Electric (Japan)
    • Marubeni / Kyushu Electric (Japan)

    The original plan was for the Facility E IWPP to have a power generation capacity of about 2,300MW and a desalination component of 100MIGD once fully operational.

    Kahramaa revised the power plant’s design capacity to 2,600MW and sought alternative prices from bidders. 

    Kahramaa eventually cancelled and reissued the tender in September 2023. The current tender entails a power generation plant with the same capacity as initially tendered in 2019.

    MEED understands that the new target commercial operation date for the Facility E IWPP project has been moved to 2027. 

    The state utility’s transaction advisory team includes UK-headquartered PwC and Clyde & Co as financial and legal advisers, respectively, led by Belgrade-headquartered Energoprojekt as technical adviser.

    Facility E is Qatar’s fifth IWPP scheme. Completed and operational IWPPs include three projects in Ras Laffan – known as Facilities A, B and C – and Facility D in Umm Al-Houl.

    Awarded in 2015 and completed in 2018, Facility D was developed by a Japanese consortium of Mitsubishi Corporation and Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco). South Korea’s Samsung C&T was the EPC contractor.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12971834/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Masdar and Hassan Allam sign Egypt solar and battery contracts

    22 November 2024

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Cairo-based Hassan Allam Utilities, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) and Infinity Power have signed two power-purchase agreements (PPAs) with Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) for the development of two solar projects with a combined capacity of 1,200MW.

    The first solar project in Wahat will have a capacity of 900MW. The second solar plant in Benban will have a capacity of 300MW and include a battery energy storage system (bess) plant capacity of 720 megawatt-hours (MWh).

    Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and the UAE’s Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology Sultan Al-Jaber witnessed the signing of the PPAs. 

    In a statement, Hassan Allam said the facilities “are expected to play a critical role in reducing carbon emissions, supporting Egypt’s sustainability ambitions, and increasing the supply of clean energy in Egypt”.

    It will also be the first development to come on stream in the broader strategic partnership between Hassan Allam Utilities, Masdar and Infinity Power. The partners are looking to develop close to 11,000MW of renewable power generation capacity in Egypt.

    In May, the team signed a land access agreement with the Egyptian government for a planned 10,000MW onshore wind farm project in Egypt.

    The agreement gives the consortium access to a 3,025-square-kilometre area in West Sohag and enables it to conduct the required development studies, which will help advance the project to the construction phase.

    The agreement followed an initial memorandum of understanding signed by the consortium and Egypt’s New & Renewable Energy Authority in November 2022, and a land agreement announced in June of last year.

    Photo credit: Hassan Allam

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12971765/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Morocco awards $2bn of high-speed rail construction work

    22 November 2024

    Register for MEED's 14-day trial access 

    Contractors have now been selected for the eight main civil works packages on the Marrakesh to Kenitra high-speed rail line. The construction contracts total nearly $2bn.

    Each package covers the earthworks, structures, communications systems and fencing of different sections of the 245-kilometre line, with each lot covering between 36km and 64km.

    The contractors selected for each package are as follows:

    • Package 1: China Railway Number 4 Engineering Group (CREC 4) – MD3.4bn ($348.9m)
    • Package 2: Shandong Hi-Speed Group Company (China) – MD4.05bn
    • Package 3: Societe Les Grands Travaux Routier (GTR – the local subsidiary of France’s Colas) – MD2.15bn. The low bidder at bid opening was China Overseas Engineering Group with an offer of MD2.048bn, but the Moroccan contractor was selected after national preference criteria were applied.
    • Package 4: Travaux Generaux de Construction de Casablanca (TGCC – local) – MD2.8bn
    • Package 5: China Railway 20th Bureau Group (CRCC 20) – MD1.8bn
    • Package 6: Jet Contractors (local) – MD2.1bn
    • Package 7: Groupe Mojazine (local) – MD1.98bn. The low bidder was China Gezhouba Group at MD1.88bn, but the local contractor was selected after national preference criteria were applied.
    • Package 10: China Overseas Engineering Group – MD1.35bn

    The link will extend the Al-Boraq railway, a high-speed rail line between Tangier, Rabat and Casablanca. The line started operating in 2018 and was Africa’s first high-speed railway system.

    In August, MEED reported that the client, Office National des Chemins de Fer (ONCF), had appointed a team to provide project management services for a high-speed rail link. The contract was awarded to a team comprising French engineering firms Egis and Systra, in association with Moroccan firm Novec.

    In November, ONCF also announced it had awarded an $81m contract to German firm Vossloh to deliver components for the high-speed project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12972029/main.jpg
    Edward James