meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Global LNG demand set for steady growth

30 August 2024

 

The low density of natural gas makes it costlier to contain and transport compared to other fossil fuels such as coal or crude oil. 

For more than a century after gas was recognised as a viable energy source, producers were unable to utilise the fundamental infrastructure that facilitated international oil trade – marine transportation.

Prior to the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology, the transportation of gas was limited to movement by pipeline. The development of LNG revolutionised the manner in which gas is transported and consumed worldwide. 

The first experimental shipment of LNG was made from Lake Charles in the US state of Louisiana to Canvey Island in the UK in 1958, aboard the vessel the Methane Pioneer. Since then, with improvements in technology and cost efficiencies, LNG has become an internationally traded commodity, the demand for which has risen through the years.

LNG production and transmission

LNG is natural gas that has been reduced to a liquid state by cooling it to a cryogenic temperature of -160 degrees Celsius. Natural gas is converted to a liquid in a liquefaction plant, or train.

Train sizes tend to be limited by the size of the available compressors. In the early years of development, train sizes had capacities of about 2 million tonnes a year (t/y), and a greenfield facility would often require three trains to be economically viable.

Improvements in compressor technology in this century have made it possible to design larger trains, to benefit from economies of scale. In the early 2000s, Qatar’s state-owned companies Qatargas and RasGas, in partnership with Western companies such as ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies (which was known as Total at the time), started operating trains with capacities of 7.8 million t/y.

When natural gas is in a liquid form, it takes up approximately one 600th of the space it would occupy as a vapour. Reducing its volume and its weight by half makes it easier and safer to transport across long distances on specially designed double-hull ships or vessels. 

In the final stage of transmission, LNG is offloaded from a marine jetty to cryogenic storage tanks at the receiving terminal. It remains at -160 degrees Celsius during this process.

Benefits and applications

A slew of benefits and applications in various industries has fuelled the growth of LNG in the global economy. 

LNG produces 40% less carbon dioxide than coal and 30% less than oil, therefore offering lower carbon emissions. 

The LNG liquefaction process also releases very little nitrogen oxide, a harmful greenhouse gas, and sulphur dioxide, which can cause significant damage to terrestrial and atmospheric ecosystems.

With an energy density 600 times greater than natural gas, LNG can be used as an alternative fuel for sectors such as shipping. This helps to reduce the carbon footprint of industries that are slower to decarbonise.

On the socioeconomic front, LNG sales have facilitated the economic progress of producer nations, as witnessed in Australia, Qatar and Nigeria. Consumer countries also get access to a source of affordable and environmentally sustainable energy.

Separately, investments in LNG – in the form of LNG infrastructure building, as well as the expansion of production facilities – spur economic growth and help to stimulate job creation.

LNG is primarily used as a major source for electricity generation in powering industries, households and social infrastructure.

The chemicals industry is also one of the largest consumers of LNG, where it is mainly used for steam production and for heating, cracking and reforming units.

In the transport sector, meanwhile, LNG is one of the foremost sources of fuel, particularly for marine tankers and heavy surface vehicles, due to its high energy density compared to conventional fuels, coupled with its low emissions.

In addition, in food manufacturing, LNG is used as fuel for intense processes such as the steaming and drying of food produce.

Buoyant demand outlook

According to Shell’s LNG Outlook 2024, the global demand for LNG is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as industrial coal-to-gas switching gathers pace in China, and as South and Southeast Asian countries use more LNG to support their economic growth.

Global trade in LNG reached 404 million tonnes in 2023, up from 397 million tonnes in 2022, with tight supplies of LNG constraining growth while maintaining prices and price volatility above historic averages.

Demand for natural gas has already peaked in some regions but continues to rise globally, with LNG demand expected to reach about 625-685 million t/y in 2040, according to the latest industry estimates.

“China is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry seeks to cut carbon emissions by switching from coal to gas,” says Steve Hill, executive vice president for Shell Energy, in the company’s LNG Outlook 2024. 

“With China’s coal-based steel sector accounting for more emissions than the total emissions of the UK, Germany and Turkiye combined, gas has an essential role to play in tackling one of the world’s biggest sources of carbon emissions and local air pollution.”

Over the following decade, declining domestic gas production in parts of South and Southeast Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies increasingly need fuel for gas-fired power plants or industry. However, these countries will need to make significant investments in their gas import infrastructure, Shell said in the report.

The Shell LNG Outlook 2024 also notes that gas complements wind and solar power in countries with high levels of renewables in their power generation mix, providing short-term flexibility and long-term security of supply.

Three stages of growth

UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, in its global gas strategic planning outlook, identifies three distinct phases of LNG market growth in the coming decade.

First, it says that continued market volatility will remain for the next couple of years as limited supply growth amplifies risk. 

The pace of LNG supply growth and demand across Europe and Asia provide both upside and downside risks. Uncertainty over Russian gas and LNG exports further complicates the matter, making 2025 a potentially tumultuous year for supply, and therefore for prices.

This phase could be followed by a major wave of new supply, ushering in lower prices from 2026, Wood Mackenzie says in the report. 

A muted demand response to lower prices across Asia would undoubtedly draw out the market imbalance. Conversely, supply risks cannot be ruled out. An anticipated escalation of Western sanctions on Russian LNG threatens to impact the overall supply growth scenario, increasing the potential for a stronger-for-longer market.

Beyond 2026, as LNG supply growth slows, prices will recover again before a new wave of LNG supply triggers another cycle of low prices in the early 2030s, Wood Mackenzie predicts. 

Much will depend on long-term Asian demand growth. Booming power demand and a shift away from coal makes gas and renewables the obvious choice. 

However, if LNG prices are too high, Asia’s most price-sensitive buyers could quickly return to coal. 

On the upside, delays or cancellations to the expansion of Central Asian and Russian pipeline gas into China will push Chinese LNG demand higher for longer. 

Region advances LNG projects with pace

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/12432749/main.gif
Indrajit Sen

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Iraq’s first LNG terminal to be completed in June

    27 April 2026

    Iraq’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal is expected to be completed in early June, according to the country’s Ministry of Electricity.

    The terminal, which has an estimated investment value of $450m, is being developed at the Port of Khor Al-Zubair and will have a capacity of 750 million standard cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Ministry spokesperson Ahmed Mousa told the Iraqi News Agency that “work is proceeding at an accelerated pace to complete the LNG platform”, noting that “the government has set 1 June as the date for finishing the project”.

    In October last year, US-based Excelerate Energy signed a commercial agreement with a subsidiary of Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity to develop the floating LNG terminal.

    The contract was signed at the office of Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani during a ceremony attended by senior officials from both countries, including the US deputy secretary of energy James Danly.

    The contract included a five-year agreement for regasification services and LNG supply with extension options, featuring a minimum contracted offtake of 250 million cf/d.

    Ahmed Mousa said that “under the contract, the company is responsible for completing the facility as well as securing the agreed gas quantities from any source, in line with the specified terms”.

    He added: “Work is continuing according to the planned timelines to complete the project on schedule, as part of the Ministry of Electricity’s plans to keep pace with peak summer loads.”

    Although Iraq is Opec’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, it is a net natural gas importer because its lack of infrastructure investment has meant that, until 2023, it flared roughly half of the estimated 3.12 billion cf/d of gas produced in association with crude oil.

    Iraq’s reliance on flaring associated gas instead of gathering and processing it has prevented the country from fully realising its potential as a gas producer and forced the Iraqi government to rely on costly gas and electricity imports from Iran.

    Recently, Iraq’s oil and gas sector has been disrupted by fallout from the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February and the subsequent regional conflict.

    Over recent weeks, Iraq’s oil exports have collapsed by about 80% amid problems shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577746/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Iraqi LNG import terminal raises questions about energy strategy

    27 April 2026

    Commentary
    Wil Crisp
    Oil & gas reporter

    Iraq’s first LNG import terminal is set to come online in early June, at a time when global LNG prices are likely to remain close to their highest levels in more than three years.

    The disruption to global oil and gas exports in the wake of the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February led to LNG prices soaring, with natural gas prices in Asia and Europe rising to their highest levels since January 2023 during March.

    So far, there has been little progress towards a diplomatic or military solution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and most analysts do not forecast significant price declines in the near term.

    On 24 April, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the combined effect of short-term supply losses and slower capacity growth could result in a cumulative loss of around 120 billion cubic metres of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030.

    While the IEA expects new liquefaction projects in other regions to offset these losses over time, it still believes the crisis will lead to prolonged tight market conditions through 2026 and 2027.

    This means that Iraq will likely have to pay elevated prices for imported LNG for some time to come – if it can receive shipments at all.

    The port of Khor Al-Zubair is located in the Arabian Gulf, and LNG shipments from the US or Australia would need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz before reaching the terminal.

    This will only be possible if a solution is found to the ongoing blockade of the shipping route.

    Investment debate

    Iraq’s project to develop a floating LNG terminal is estimated to cost $450m, and many in Iraq may question whether this was the best use of these funds.

    While it may have been difficult for Iraqi policymakers to foresee the attack by the US and Israel on Iran and its impact on LNG markets, Iraq had several strong options to enhance domestic energy security rather than turning to LNG imports.

    The most obvious of these was investing in infrastructure to enable it to utilise its domestic gas reserves.

    According to the World Bank’s 2025 Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report, in 2024, Iraq burned off more unused gas than any other country, except Russia and Iran, which ranked first and second, respectively.

    That year, an estimated total of more than 18 billion cubic metres of natural gas was flared in Iraq due to a lack of infrastructure to properly capture and process it.

    It is highly likely that projects to gather and process this gas would have been more reliable and cost-effective than investing in a new floating LNG terminal, which increases the country’s exposure to global LNG price fluctuations and shipping disruptions.

    Other options could have included developing domestic gas fields or investing in solar and battery storage projects, which have become increasingly affordable in recent years.

    The cost of solar panels has fallen by more than 95% over the past decade.

    Power shortfall

    As things stand, Iraq is likely to face severe electricity shortages this summer.

    On 21 April, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said it plans to produce 30,000MW this summer, well short of the predicted peak demand of around 55,000MW.

    Ahmed Musa, a spokesperson for the Electricity Ministry, told the state-run Iraqi News Agency that the shortfall will result in planned outages across the country.

    He also said that even meeting the 30,000MW target is contingent on sufficient gas supplies.

    If Iraq experiences the same level of power outages as last year – or worse – many are likely to view the $450m spent on an LNG import terminal as a waste of money and an expensive symbol of poor planning.

    Power cuts this summer could stoke unrest at a time that is already politically precarious due to the ongoing regional conflict.

    In recent years, electricity shortages have repeatedly fuelled protests in Iraq during the summer months, particularly in Basra, where blackouts and poor public services have driven people to take to the streets.

    If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon, Iraq’s economic crisis will deepen, and electricity shortages are likely to further undermine the country’s stability.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577743/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait approves Doha desalination plant award

    27 April 2026

    Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders has approved the recommendation of the Ministry of Electricity & Water to award a KD114.28m ($371.5m) contract to supply, install, operate and maintain the second phase of the Doha seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant.

    A joint venture of Kuwait-based Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco) and India’s VA Tech Wabag has been selected for the project, with the award understood to be pending final approval from the Audit Bureau.

    The project will deliver a production capacity of about 60 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD) and will include the desalination plant with full reverse osmosis trains, pre- and post-treatment systems, recarbonation equipment, booster pumps, and safety and filtration systems.

    The total project duration is 96 months. The Doha SWRO desalination plant is part of Kuwait’s broader programme to expand water production capacity and reduce reliance on thermal desalination methods.

    MEED previously reported that the Heisco/Wabag joint venture submitted the lowest bid. Bidders and prices included:

    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding / Wabag: $373.2m
    • Cox Water (Spain): $538.1m
    • Orascom Construction (Egypt): $568.4m

    In April 2025, MEED reported that Kuwait had retendered the contract for the facility after the ministry cancelled the initial tender in June 2024.

    The Ministry of Electricity & Water awarded South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction – now known as Doosan Enerbility – a $422m contract in May 2016 to build the 60 MIGD Doha 1 SWRO plant.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577722/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Firms prepare bids for 250MW Airtrunk data centre

    27 April 2026

     

    Contractors are preparing to submit commercial offers by 4 May for a contract to build a 250MW data centre in Riyadh.

    The project is being co-developed by Australian firm AirTrunk in collaboration with Saudi Arabia’s artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company Humain, which is owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF).

    The bidders include:

    • El-Seif Engineering Contracting / Larsen & Toubro (local/India)
    • FCC / Alfanar Projects (Spain/local)
    • Albawani / Orascom (local/Egypt)
    • Nesma & Partners (local
    • James L Williams (UAE)
    • Alec (UAE)

    In October last year, AirTrunk and Humain announced a $3bn partnership to build data centres in Saudi Arabia, marking AirTrunk’s first move into the region.

    The firms said they would, along with AirTrunk investor Blackstone, “develop a long-term strategic partnership focused on financing, developing and operating next-generation data centres and AI infrastructure across the kingdom”.

    This was followed by Humain signing a $1.2bn financing agreement with the state-backed National Infrastructure Fund to support the expansion of AI and digital infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia. The agreement was signed in January on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

    Humain said the deal will support its plan to develop up to 250MW of hyperscale AI data centre capacity in the kingdom.

    According to a joint statement, the data centres will use graphics processing units for AI training and inference, serving Humain’s customers locally, regionally and globally.

    The National Infrastructure Fund and Humain will also explore launching an AI data centre investment platform, with the two organisations acting as anchor investors to enable local and international institutional investors to back the scale-up of Humain’s AI programme.

    The National Infrastructure Fund is Saudi Arabia’s lead development financing partner for infrastructure and operates under the supervision of the National Development Fund.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577720/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Diriyah confirms $490m museum construction contract

    27 April 2026

    Saudi gigaproject developer Diriyah Company has formally announced the award of a SR1.84bn ($490m) construction contract for its Saudi Arabia Museum of Contemporary Art (SAMoCA) within the Diriyah development in Riyadh.

    The contract has been awarded to a consortium comprising Egyptian contractor Hassan Allam Construction and Saudi Arabia’s Albawani.

    In February, MEED exclusively reported that the contractors were preparing to start construction work on the project. MEED understands Diriyah Company awarded the contract to the consortium in December last year.

    The announcement follows Diriyah Company’s award of an estimated SR2.5bn ($666m) contract to build the Pendry superblock package in the DG2 area.

    The Pendry superblock includes the construction of the Pendry Hotel alongside residential and commercial assets. The package will cover 75,365 square metres and is located in the northwestern district of the DG2 area.

    In February, Diriyah Company also awarded a SR717m ($192m) contract for the construction of the One Hotel, located in the Diriyah Two area of the masterplan, with a gross floor area of more than 31,000 sq m.

    The Diriyah masterplan envisages the city as a cultural and lifestyle tourism destination. Located northwest of Riyadh city centre, it will span 14 square kilometres and combine 300 years of history, culture and heritage with hospitality facilities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577413/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal