Riyadh reins in spending
24 May 2024
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On the surface, it feels like business as usual in Saudi Arabia as new projects continue to be launched.
On 8 May, designs for another futuristic project at Neom’s Gulf of Aqaba were released with slick computer-generated imagery. Known as Jaumur (pictured), it includes the development of a mixed-use community featuring 1,200 residential units and two hotels offering 350 rooms. The most eye-catching part of the project is at the marina, which will have a 1.5-kilometre aerofoil that will rise above the yacht berths.
Beneath the surface, a consensus is emerging that the kingdom’s projects market is in the midst of a recalibration as spending is reined in.
The challenge for Riyadh over the next few years will be balancing the delivery of its ambitions with the reality of its financial capabilities.
The first public sign that things were changing came in December 2023, when Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan told reporters at the launch of the 2024 budget that the delivery of some of the projects included in the Saudi Vision 2030 plan may be delayed to avoid pressure on the economy.
Tightening the purse strings
The ministry-level decision is trickling down as individual development companies are not getting their full budgets approved. “Our firm is working on almost all of the major projects in Saudi Arabia in some capacity,” says an international consultant. “The feedback we are getting is that budget spending for 2024 has been reduced by about 30% on average.”
Many of these delivery companies are subsidiaries of sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which has taken a leading role in transforming the kingdom’s economy over the past eight years with development schemes including its five official gigaprojects, Neom, Roshn, Red Sea Global (RSG), Qiddiya and Diriyah.
The reports of budget cuts have coincided with a drop in contract awards. According to MEED’s Gigaprojects Tracker, there has been a sharp decline in the value of contracts awarded by the five official gigaprojects this year.
In April, they awarded $166m of work, down from $271m in March and $509m in February. The total in January was $5.56bn, largely due to the $4.7bn contract awarded to the local Webuild for the construction of dams at the Trojena mountain resort in Neom.
The reports of budget cuts have coincided with a drop in contract awards
Funding options
The budget cuts are just part of the message, says the consultant. The delivery companies are being told to find external investment to deliver their projects, and there are already signs of this happening. The clearest came in late April, when Neom announced a $2.7bn revolving credit facility from nine local banks to cater to the project’s short-term financing requirements.
In a statement, Neom CEO Nadhmi Nasser highlighted the project’s drive to find new sources of funding. “As Neom continues to gather pace, this new credit facility, backed by Saudi Arabia’s leading financial institutions, is a natural fit within our wider strategy for funding. We continue to explore a variety of funding sources as we deliver transformational infrastructure assets while supporting the wider Vision 2030 programme,” he said.
In a research note following the deal, London-based Capital Economics said: “While this does take some of the onus away from the government and Public Investment Fund, it is increasingly using resources that could be used more productively in the private non-oil sector.”
Capital Economics also noted that the facility adds to the growing share of commercial banks’ lending to the public sector. Since 2015, this share has increased from 7% to 22% in March 2024.
Another solution for development companies is deploying public-private partnerships (PPPs) to deliver infrastructure and utilities. This is attractive because PPPs reduce the initial capital expenditure required for a project.
RSG has already pursued this route for The Red Sea Project and Amaala; other development companies are exploring the PPP avenue for their projects.
Real estate investment is another option. There is an expectation that Riyadh will introduce a foreign ownership law that could turbocharge the market as a similar law did for Dubai in the early 2000s.
There are already examples of real estate investment deals being done, including the National Housing Company with Spain’s Urbas Group for housing in Riyadh, RSG with Kingdom Holding Company for hotels, and King Salman with a real estate development fund.
PPP offers budget and efficiency routes
Prioritising projects
As projects in the kingdom are developed differently, the challenge for the construction industry will be identifying which of the many schemes that aim to transform the Saudi economy are a top priority.
Much will depend on the success of the investment drive. The most likely projects to go ahead are those linked to global events with immovable deadlines. Experience across the region over the past decade has shown that even if construction elsewhere slowed down, construction for Expo 2020 in Dubai and the 2022 Fifa World Cup in Qatar continued regardless.
“For Saudi Arabia, there are three major events: the Asian Winter Games in 2029, Expo 2030 and World Cup 2034. They will be the obvious priorities,” says the international consultant.
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Abu Dhabi hopes bigger is better with Disney theme park
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Commentary
Colin Foreman
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Miral has developed a series of theme parks and other entertainment-related attractions on Yas Island
Enter Disney
Disney changes that. It is the largest brand in the theme park space and will be a major attraction, but with limited information released on the project so far, it is difficult to fully gauge how significant the project will be.
The official release said that the project will be developed and operated by Abu Dhabi developer Miral, adding that Disney’s in-house design and engineering unit, Walt Disney Imagineering, will lead creative design and operational oversight to provide a world-class experience. It did not give any details on the ownership of the project.
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Waterfront location
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Exclusivity clause
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Tourism gateway
Like Hong Kong, Abu Dhabi is a smaller economy sitting next to a larger regional player. With Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 strategy and its existing roster of theme park developments at Qiddiya, which includes a Six Flags, a water park and a Dragon Ball Z theme park, developers in Riyadh would likely be keen to have a Disney theme park, too.
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Data centres churn investments
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Global investment firm KKR appointed retired US Army general and former Central Intelligence Agency director David Petraeus as chairman of its Middle East operations in mid-April.
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The private equity firm’s investment in GDH, however, shows only part of the picture as far as the rapidly evolving data centre investment landscape is concerned.
In March, Abu Dhabi-based critical infrastructure-focused sovereign investor ADQ and US-headquartered power developer Energy Capital Partners agreed to establish a 50:50 partnership to build new power generation and energy infrastructure that will serve the long-term needs of data centres and industrial clusters in the US and selected other international markets.
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That announcement came a day after UAE National Security Adviser and Deputy Ruler of Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, met with US President Donald Trump at the White House. During the meeting, the UAE is understood to have committed to a 10-year, $1.4tn investment framework for the US.
Tech funds
In the past 24 months, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh in particular have set up funds, sometimes in partnership with global firms, to invest in AI and data centre infrastructure, both domestically and abroad.
Abu Dhabi’s MGX aims to build $100bn in assets under management within a few years, along with US-headquartered and Blackrock-backed Global Infrastructure Partners and Microsoft, the fund's key partners. It is part of the US’ Stargate consortium, which aims to mobilise up to $500bn to build AI infrastructure in the US over the next four years.
In Riyadh, a $100bn AI initiative known as Project Transcendence is expected to invest in data centres, technology startups and other related infrastructure for the development of AI.
US-based Silver Lake announced in March 2025 that, together with MGX, it has become a minority shareholder in state-backed, Abu Dhabi-based Khazna Data Centres, one of the region’s largest data centre operators.
In 2023, Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund (PIF) partnered with US-based DigitalBridge to develop data centres in Saudi Arabia and across the GCC states.
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Not to be outdone, the founder of Dubai-based private real estate developer Damac pledged to invest $20bn in data centre projects in several US cities earlier this year.
And there is more to the growing – if outsized – number of bidirectional data centre-focused investment flows than meets the eye.
Given the global AI race and mounting competition, investment decisions regarding data centres are moving from a simple, commercial focus to account for complex geopolitical considerations, according to Jessica Obeid, a partner at Dubai-headquartered New Energy Consult.
“As the US weaponises its technological advancements, decisions to invest in US-based data centres hedge against the risks of US export controls, positioning developers in proximity to suppliers, ensuring reliable access to components.
“Yet, this access could become costlier, driven by trade tariff wars, heightened regulations and limited access to grid infrastructure,” Obeid says.
She adds that the GCC is quickly positioning itself as a global digital hub, driven by cost-competitive energy, advanced infrastructure and strong government backing.
“Proximity to reliable power supply at an affordable cost, and speed in licensing processes and grid connections, are increasingly becoming strategic factors in data centre deployment – and the GCC offers that.”
Powering AI strategies
Almost all of the GCC states have formulated AI strategies that aim to improve operational efficiencies, create jobs and support their energy transition and net-zero initiatives.
As a result, analysts expect the region to register double-digit annual growth in data centre construction activities in the next few years.
In a recent update, global consultancy PwC projected that the Middle East data centre capacity could triple from 1GW in 2025 to 3.3GW in five years’ time.
According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, as of April, an estimated $12bn-worth of data centre construction projects are in the planning stage, in addition to over $820m under bid and $7bn under construction.
Li-Chen Sim, assistant professor of civil security at Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa University, says that AI investments are, on the one hand, “all part of a carefully conceived strategy to … diversify out of a hydrocarbons-driven economy, to create new revenue streams from overseas data centres, build new growth sectors, support business requirements and offer more knowledge-based jobs as opposed to traditional manufacturing from domestic investments”.
On the other hand, AI investments also aim to future-proof the hydrocarbons sector, which Sim expects will continue to be a significant driver of growth, revenue and exports, even as the use of renewable power grows.
However, the ability of Gulf states to execute their plans for leveraging AI to diversify economies and create jobs –and specifically to address youth unemployment – depends on two factors, according to Obeid.
The first factor is the ability of countries to advance their AI goals from infrastructure to capital and partnerships. The second involves the speed with which they can build up adequate human capital and a skilled workforce.
“We will have to see how governments align their educational curricula with the AI policies and electricity infrastructure development,” she says.
Ecosystem investment
AI and data centre investments go beyond the facilities that house thousands of advanced graphics processing units, miles of cables and many cooling systems. To run and execute applications – particularly AI inferencing tasks – data centre facilities require a substantial amount of energy.
Moreover, data centres in the Middle East and North Africa region face elevated environmental risks due to the high ambient temperatures, which increase energy demand for cooling, as well as water requirements.
This presents both a challenge and an opportunity, according to Obeid. "The GCC has an opportunity to advance innovation in energy and cooling technologies. Liquid cooling is necessary for AI workloads, and small modular reactors will become central in these data centres.”
In January, Abu Dhabi’s Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) appeared to show the way with a plan to build a round-the-clock solar photovoltaic (PV) plant combined with a battery energy storage system (bess) facility.
The 5.2GW solar PV and 19 gigawatt-hour bess plant is expected to deliver renewable power as baseload, and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Bin Sultan Al-Nahyan has said that the project will help power advancements in AI and emerging technologies, and support the delivery of the UAE National AI Strategy 2031 and 2050 Net Zero initiative.
Sim agrees that renewables combined with battery storage is part of the answer when it comes to building sustainable data centres. “Globally, data centres consume about 1% of electricity, and this figure – together with carbon emissions by data centres – is expected to grow significantly.”
He notes that Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that global power demand from data centres will increase 50% by 2027, and 165% by the end of the decade, compared to 2023.
“The other part of the puzzle with regard to sustainability is water consumption by data centres, particularly those in the Gulf, where high temperatures necessitate even more cooling measures.
“Singapore, for instance, has pioneered integrated water systems that recycle treated wastewater for reuse – and this circular water model could be an option for data centres in the Gulf, instead of using expensive desalinated water,” says Sim.
As things stand, the GCC can play a key role in the advancement of these and other technologies, along with efficiency measures and the optimisation of server utilisation through AI applications such as digital twins, says Obeid.
This is just as well, since the region appears to be on the cusp of a boom in inbound and outbound investments that will build data centre capacity abroad and closer to home.
“We are at a pivotal moment for innovation, where the intersection of digital advancements and energy innovation could position the GCC as a global leader, shaping the future of sustainable digital infrastructure,” concludes Obeid.
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