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World waits for Iran nuclear deal

17 August 2022

Commentary

Jennifer Aguinaldo

Energy & technology editor

The EU team that drafted the final text of a proposal leading to a revival of the 2015 nuclear deal, which puts limits on Iran’s nuclear programmes in exchange for sanctions relief, did not get the yes response it had hoped for from Tehran on 15 August.

The response sounded more like a maybe, with the Islamic Republic highlighting the need for the US, which walked away from the deal in 2018 under former president Donald Trump, to show flexibility on three key issues. While these issues have not been disclosed, one source close to the negotiations has indicated that Iran is seeking guarantees that it will be compensated if a future US president again withdraws from the pact.

The issue of ending a UN investigation into Iran’s past atomic activities is also a key sticking point. 

Related read: Will Iran take a deal?

Yet the EU has described Iran’s response as constructive and said it is consulting with the US on a way ahead for the protracted talks.

The fact that Tehran submitted its comments on the proposal on time is seen as a positive sign that it might not stall the negotiations, which have lasted over 17 months, much further.

Next steps

It is now up to Washington to consider Tehran’s written comments while the other Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action parties – China, France, Russia, Germany, the UK and EU states – also assess the document.

Analysts say 1 million barrels a day of oil could be added to the global energy market if the 2015 deal is revived. Oil prices fell to a six-month low of less than $94 a barrel on 17 August as a deal appeared to be, as Tehran officials put it, closer than ever.

A key caveat is that it is not the first time Tehran has asserted that a deal is imminent when others believe that while a deal appears so near, it also remains so far.

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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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