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World to add 5.5TW of renewables

9 October 2024

The world is set to add more than 5,500GW of new renewable energy capacity between 2024 and 2030, almost three times the increase between 2017 and 2023.

According to a new report by the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), China will account for almost 60% of all renewable capacity installed worldwide between now and 2030, based on current market trends and today’s policy settings by governments.

The IEA Renewables 2024 report added: “That would make China home to almost half of the world’s total renewable power capacity by the end of this decade, up from a share of a third in 2010.”

However, while China is adding the biggest volumes of renewables, India is growing at the fastest rate among major economies.

In terms of technologies, solar photovoltaic (PV) alone is forecast to account for a massive 80% of the growth in global renewable capacity between now and 2030 – the result of the construction of new large solar power plants as well as an increase in rooftop solar installations by companies and households.

Despite ongoing challenges, the wind sector is also poised for a recovery, with the rate of expansion doubling between 2024 and 2030 compared with the period between 2017 and 2023.

As a result of these trends, the report cites that nearly 70 countries, collectively accounting for 80% of global renewable power capacity, are poised to reach or surpass their current renewable ambitions for 2030.

The report forecasts global capacity will reach 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030, which still falls short of the target set by nearly 200 governments at the Cop28 climate change conference in December 2023 to triple the world’s renewable capacity this decade.

IEA analysis indicates that “fully meeting the tripling target is entirely possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action”.

This includes outlining bold plans in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, due next year, and bolstering international cooperation on reducing high financing costs in emerging and developing economies, which are restraining renewables’ growth in high-potential regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia.

“Renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets for. This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security – it’s increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

“This report shows that the growth of renewables, especially solar, will transform electricity systems across the globe this decade.

“Between now and 2030, the world is on course to add more than 5,500 gigawatts of renewable power capacity – roughly equal to the current power capacity of China, the European Union, India and the United States combined. By 2030, we expect renewables to be meeting half of global electricity demand.”

Renewables are on course to generate almost half of global electricity by 2030, with the share of wind and solar PV doubling to 30%, according to the forecast.

Curtailing curtailment

However, the report emphasises the need for governments to ramp up their efforts to securely integrate variable renewable sources such as solar PV and wind into power systems.

Recently, rates of curtailment – where renewable electricity generation is not used – have been increasing substantially, reaching around 10% in several countries today.

The IEA suggests focusing on integration measures such as increasing power system flexibility to address this.

It added: “Making a concerted push to address policy uncertainties and streamline permitting processes – and to build and modernise 25 million kilometres of electricity grids and reach 1,500GW of storage capacity by 2030, as highlighted in previous IEA analysis – would enable even larger shares of generation from renewables.”

Renewable shares in consumption

Overall, led by the massive growth of renewable electricity, the share of renewables in final energy consumption is forecast to increase to nearly 20% by 2030, up from 13% in 2023.

Meanwhile, renewable fuels are lagging, underscoring the need for dedicated policy support to decarbonise sectors that are hard to electrify.

Meeting international climate goals would require not only accelerating the rollout of renewable power, but also significantly speeding up the adoption of sustainable biofuels, biogases, hydrogen and e-fuels, the report notes.

Since these fuels remain more expensive than their fossil counterparts, their share in global energy is set to stay below 6% in 2030.

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Jennifer Aguinaldo

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