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What the desalination pipeline signals for 2026

8 January 2026

 

Contract activity in the GCC desalination market indicates a year of consolidation rather than major expansion in 2026, following a surge in Saudi-based awards last year.

Total desalination contracts awarded across the GCC in 2025 reached about $3.8bn, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

Saudi Arabia accounted for the vast majority of this value, reinforcing its role as the region’s dominant desalination market.

The largest desalination award of the year was the contract for the $700m Shoaiba 6 seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant, which will have a capacity of 500,000 cubic metres a day.

The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract was awarded to the local Rawafid Holding by the Saudi Water Authority.

The Shoaiba 6 award was followed closely by the $693m Ras Mohaisen to Al-Baha independent water plant and water transmission project, which involves the construction of a reverse osmosis desalination plant with a capacity of 300,000 cubic metres a day.

A consortium of local firms Acwa Power, Hajj Abdullah Ali Reza & Partners and Al-Kifah Holding Company won the developer contract in February, while a joint venture of Larsen & Toubro (L&T) and Lantania has since started construction on the project.

Saudi Arabia’s dominance will not be challenged in the near term. Of the $2.5bn-worth of desalination projects currently active across the GCC, the kingdom accounts for the largest share by both value and volume.

The strength of the Saudi market lies not only in its scale but also in procurement consistency. Standardised independent water plant (IWP) structures, repeat developers and predictable tendering timelines continue to support delivery, even as award volumes fluctuate year to year.

This consistency contrasts with smaller GCC markets, where desalination activity tends to be more sporadic and driven by individual supply constraints rather than long-term rolling programmes.

Saudi Arabia also awarded two identical large-scale projects in October last year: Jubail 4 and Jubail 6, two IWPs, each valued at $485m, under the Saudi Water Partnership Company’s IWP programme. Earlier in the year, the $521m Shuaibah water desalination plant phase 2 moved into construction, further adding to the kingdom’s project tally.

Outside Saudi Arabia, the only major award in 2025 was Abu Dhabi’s $400m Saadiyat seawater reverse osmosis IWP, procured by Emirates Water & Electricity Company. While significant, the award underlines a broader trend in the UAE, where desalination contract values have declined steadily since the peak years of 2022 and 2023. The coming year is on course for a similar level of awards as 2025.

The immediate pipeline

Bid evaluations point to a steady but unspectacular start to 2026. The immediate pipeline suggests that 2026 will be defined more by continuity than by major expansion. Projects currently under bid evaluation across the GCC total just under $1.2bn, significantly below 2025 award levels.

The largest of these is Kuwait’s $432m Doha SWRO desalination plant phase 2, which stands out as the single biggest near-term opportunity in the region. If awarded in 2026, it is likely to provide Kuwait’s only major desalination activity of the year.

Bahrain accounts for two projects under evaluation: the $170m rehabilitation of the Ras Abu Jarjur brackish water reverse osmosis plant and the $145m Hawar SWRO desalination plant. Together, these reflect a pragmatic approach focused on asset life extension alongside limited new capacity.

Oman’s $100m Duqm SWRO plant also remains under evaluation. While modest in size, it is strategically linked to the Duqm industrial zone and highlights the continued integration of desalination infrastructure into broader economic developments.

Saudi Arabia’s only project currently at this stage is the $169m fast-track SWRO plant at Neom. Its importance lies less in value than in timing, reinforcing desalination’s role in supporting early-phase gigaproject infrastructure rather than signalling a new wave of mega-awards.

UAE activity continues to taper

Unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE enters 2026 with limited visible desalination momentum. The Saadiyat IWP award in 2025 followed several stronger years earlier in the decade, and there is little evidence so far of a return to those levels.

This reflects a greater immediate focus on other areas of water infrastructure, with large-scale investment planned for sewage treatment and transmission infrastructure in 2026.

To date, Etihad Water & Electricity’s (EtihadWE) $400m SWRO Independent Water Project (IWP) in Fujairah is the only large desalination plant expected to be tendered this year.

Several trends are becoming clearer as the market looks ahead. SWRO technology continues to dominate new projects, reflecting both efficiency gains and alignment with renewable-powered water production.

There is also a noticeable shift towards smaller, more targeted schemes outside Saudi Arabia, particularly rehabilitation projects and industrial-linked plants rather than large standalone capacity additions.

Finally, procurement activity appears increasingly clustered, with awarding authorities preferring to batch projects within defined windows rather than maintaining a constant flow.

Overall, while the GCC desalination market remains active, the data points to a more measured year ahead. Saudi Arabia will continue to lead regional activity, but 2026 is shaping up as a year of consolidation rather than acceleration, with fewer headline awards and a sharper focus on delivery.

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Mark Dowdall

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