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War undermines business case for Middle East LNG

13 April 2026

 

The US and Israel’s conflict with Iran is undermining the business case for Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects by driving up prices, destroying demand for the super-chilled fuel, damaging infrastructure and eroding confidence in the reliability of the region’s suppliers.

By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict has removed around 20% of global LNG supply from the market and, for some importers, has effectively doubled prices.

Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict.

The current wave of high prices has exacerbated concerns about LNG price volatility and has already changed the minds of some countries and businesses that were planning to make large investments to facilitate LNG imports.

If these projects do not go ahead as planned, it could limit future global LNG demand, dimming the long-term outlook for businesses that depend on LNG export revenues.

As well as facing longer-term demand likely to fall short of previous expectations, LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar are also being hit in the short term as infrastructure has been damaged by Iranian strikes and sales are being blocked by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The lost revenues and ongoing security issues are casting a shadow over major LNG export expansion plans in the GCC, collectively worth more than $35bn, which could now face significant delays.

Dubbed by some analysts “the champagne of fuels”, LNG was already seen as being on the verge of becoming unaffordable for many energy-importing nations prior to the latest conflict

Affordability issues

LNG production stopped in Qatar on 2 March 2026 and QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 4 March, removing around 80 million tonnes a year (t/y) of LNG supply from global markets.

The North Field East expansion project, currently under construction and expected to add 32 million t/y, was anticipated to start up in November 2026, but could now face considerable delays.

The project is estimated to be worth $28.8bn, making it the biggest LNG project ever sanctioned

In a statement released last month, Daniel Toleman, a research director at Wood Mackenzie, said continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz lasting five to six months would push annual global LNG supply into a year-on-year decline.

“Even if supply were maintained at 2025 levels, the market would still face demand destruction in Asia, lower storage injections in Europe, and sustained upward pressure on gas and LNG prices,” he added.

“Each additional month of disruption removes around 1.5% from annual global LNG availability.”

Beyond the closure of the strait, Qatar’s LNG business has also been dealt a significant setback by Iranian attacks on infrastructure.

Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s CEO and minister of state for energy affairs, said the Iranian strikes had knocked out about 17% of its LNG export capacity, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue.

Repairs to damaged assets will sideline 12.8 million t/y of LNG for three to five years, threatening supplies to European and Asian nations, including China and India, according to Al-Kaabi.

UAE setbacks

The UAE has also seen significant disruption to its LNG operations, with shipments from its only LNG export terminal, located on Das Island, severely disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Although it has not formally declared force majeure, virtually all of its LNG output has been removed from global markets because it has no pipeline or alternative routes for LNG exports.

The ongoing energy crisis has increased uncertainty about the UAE’s planned $5.5bn LNG export terminal, being developed at the Ruwais industrial complex.

In recent weeks, the Ruwais industrial complex was targeted by Iran, causing a fire at the site. The location could also face similar shipping problems to the Das Island facility in the future, as it too requires LNG exports to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oman exports

With its LNG export terminals located on the country’s northeast coast, Oman’s exports do not require the Strait of Hormuz to be open, and it has escaped most of the negative impacts that have hit the UAE and Qatar.

However, Oman’s state-owned integrated energy company, OQ, has still been affected by disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to its activities as an LNG trader.

Last month, OQ Trading, the company’s international trading and marketing arm, declared force majeure on LNG shipments to Bangladesh’s state-owned Petrobangla.

Replacing LNG

Analysts say the demand destruction now taking place in LNG-importing nations is likely to have a long-term impact on future LNG demand.

Countries where planned LNG import-related projects have been cancelled or are being reconsidered include Vietnam, China and New Zealand.

Christopher Doleman, a gas specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (Ieefa), believes that long-term demand for LNG will be eroded by the current crisis.

“Prior to the war, a lot of countries were already somewhat hesitant to develop new LNG import infrastructure,” he said.

“There were existing concerns about the high price of LNG and potential volatility, and these concerns have increased significantly since the war began, leading several developers to consider other options, which in some cases include renewables projects.

“Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years.”

On 30 March, China’s state-owned energy company Sinopec said it was terminating a planned LNG import terminal project worth 5.6bn yuan ($820m) and reallocating the money to developing domestic gas resources.

The company said developing domestic resources was more cost-effective than developing LNG import infrastructure.

In Vietnam, conglomerate Vingroup has asked the government to allow it to replace a planned $6bn LNG power project – previously set to be the country’s largest – with a renewable energy project, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

US-based GE Vernova, which had been selected to supply gas turbines and generators for the 4.8GW project, was informed of Vingroup’s revised plans in a document sent on 25 March.

Instead of the LNG-powered plant, Vingroup asked Vietnam’s industry ministry to consider an investment plan for a hybrid renewable energy project combined with a battery energy storage system (bess).

A bess stores electricity from renewable sources to maximise its use by discharging power during peak demand.

The document did not specify the type of renewable energy to be used, but estimated the cost of the bess project at around $25bn, saying it would be a viable alternative to the LNG-powered plant if equipped with appropriate transmission infrastructure.

If Vietnam follows through on its pivot away from LNG towards renewables, it could directly affect future export deals for Qatar, which is currently one of the country’s LNG suppliers.

Everybody’s starting to realise that there is something inherently insecure about the LNG supply chain and they don’t want to have to deal with an affordability crisis every four years
Christopher Doleman, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

Second thoughts

In New Zealand, plans announced last year for a new LNG terminal on the country’s North Island are becoming increasingly uncertain.

In February, the government shortlisted contractors to build the facility in Taranaki. But on 30 March, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the government would only approve the project if the business case made sense.

“If it doesn’t stack up, we won’t be doing it. Until we see the commercials on it, we’ll make the decision then,” he said.

Mike Roan, chief executive of New Zealand’s Meridian Energy, said US President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran on 28 February had made the project much less likely to go ahead.

“It feels like the Americans might have put a bazooka, literally, through that proposal,” he said.

It has been reported that ministers are considering replacing the project with a major hydroelectric power station, which was referred to the country’s fast-track consent panel in the last week of March.

The future of a planned $3bn project to develop an LNG import terminal and gas power plant in South Africa is also now in doubt after executives delayed the final investment decision (FID).

Speaking at a conference on 4 March, Oliver Naidu from Netherlands-based Royal Vopak said the company now plans to decide on the $3bn terminal in the first quarter of 2028.

The power station and regasification complex, slated for development in the Durban area, would have had the capacity to produce 1.0-1.8GW of electricity.

Nuclear and coal

In South Korea, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) restarted unit 2 at its Kori nuclear power plant this month.

The facility had been offline for three years since its original 40-year operating permit expired in April 2023.

Commenting on the restart, KHNP president Kim Hoe-Cheon said: “In a situation where energy supply instability persists, the continued operation of nuclear power plants based on safety is an important means of securing national energy security.”

Across Asia, there has also been a surge in the use of both solar and coal amid high LNG prices.

In Pakistan, the country’s Power Minister, Awais Leghari, said that the country would pivot away from LNG to focus on domestically produced coal.

“With a reduction in LNG generation, plants running on locally mined coal will be able to produce more during off-peak hours,” Leghari told Reuters.

Similar coal ramp-ups are also taking place in Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand.

Doleman believes increased use of both coal and renewables could mean LNG’s role in the global energy mix falls short of previous expectations over the coming years.

“It’s possible that we will see a dual surge – where both renewables and coal use are ramped up,” he said.

“This is an interesting prospect because it will effectively remove gas as a so-called ‘bridge-fuel’ and we may see the transition progressing more directly to the use of renewables and battery storage, with less of a role for gas than was previously expected.

“Really, it’s turned out that LNG was just a bridge to volatility and insecurity compared to something like solar, which is very reliable and predictable.”

Eroded outlook

The demand destruction in LNG-importing countries driven by the current energy crisis is likely to mean that the long-term market for LNG exports could be significantly smaller than previously thought, negatively impacting LNG producers worldwide.

Qatar and the UAE are likely to be hit harder than producers in other regions for several reasons.

Attacks on infrastructure and disruptions to shipping are preventing them from capitalising on the current period of high prices, while producers in other regions are recording windfall profits.

In addition, dealing with the logistical and financial consequences of the conflict is likely to divert resources away from progressing new projects, pursuing efficiencies and securing future customers.

Another factor likely to weigh on LNG operators in Qatar and the UAE is the persistence of customer concerns about the reliability of shipping LNG via the Strait of Hormuz.

This could compel Adnoc Gas and QatarEnergy to sell at a relative discount compared with sellers in other regions, or to increase contractual flexibility.

It could even push these producers to rethink future projects to diversify export routes. For Qatar, this could take the form of a gas pipeline via neighbouring countries. For the UAE, one option could be developing an LNG terminal on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing reliance on the bottleneck controlled by Iran.

While the current conflict is a major setback for LNG operators in the UAE and Qatar, once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and security risks diminish, it is likely that exports will ramp up relatively quickly and former clients will return.

However, questions remain about when this will happen. If safe passage for LNG tankers can be secured within days or weeks, the long-term impact is likely to be limited.

If disruption continues for longer, it could transform the outlook for the Middle East’s LNG sector for years to come.

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16331010/main.jpg
Wil Crisp

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