meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

US elections set to disappoint region

22 January 2024

 

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.

Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.

But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.

A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.

Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.

The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.

As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.

Trump agenda

This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?

Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.

Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.

In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.

Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.

Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.

Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House

Regional letdown

Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.

Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.

For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.

His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk. 

The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.

Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.

Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.

The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.

There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.

Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.

Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.

And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.

Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11452447/main.gif
Edmund O’Sullivan

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Consultant wins Jeddah metro design

    22 May 2026

     

    French engineering firm Egis has been appointed to undertake the preliminary design consultancy for the Jeddah Metro Blue Line project.

    The project client, Jeddah Development Authority, issued the tender in early January, when MEED exclusively reported that Saudi Arabia had restarted plans to build the Jeddah Metro.

    Engineering consulting firms submitted bids in April, as MEED reported.

    The Blue Line will run from King Abdulaziz International airport and connect to the Haramain high-speed railway station.

    The line will be 35 kilometres (km) long and will include 15 stations.

    Project history

    Plans for the Jeddah Metro were first publicly floated in the early 2010s and were formally packaged into a wider Jeddah public transport programme around 2013-14.

    In 2014, French engineering firm Systra was appointed to complete preliminary engineering for the Jeddah Metro, as MEED reported at the time.

    In the same year, US-based engineering firm Aecom was awarded a SR276m ($74m) contract to provide pre-programme management consultancy services.

    Under its 18-month contract, Aecom was expected to provide staff to support preliminary planning and design work for various phases of the metro project.

    This was followed by the appointment of UK-based architectural firm Foster + Partners in 2015 to design the metro stations.

    The project then stalled as government spending priorities were reset and major capital programmes were reviewed following the fall in oil prices in 2015, with the metro’s scope, cost and delivery model coming under reassessment.

    Early concept designs envisaged a multi-line network integrated with buses and, later, other city-wide mobility upgrades.

    Route details

    According to Jeddah Transport Company’s website, the scheme comprises 81 stations and 197 trains serving more than 161km. The network will have four lines:

    • Orange Line: a 44.8km line running along Al-Madinah Road and Old Makkah Road, with 29 stops including one at Obhur Bridge
    • Blue Line: a 35km line running from King Abdulaziz International airport to the Haramain high-speed railway station, with 15 stations
    • Green Line: a 17km line running through the city centre, from the downtown area to the Haramain railway station, with nine stops
    • Red Line: A 59.7km line running from King Abdullah Stadium north to Old Makkah Street through King Abdulaziz Road and King Abdullah Road, with 25 stops

    > Be recognised among the best in the industry at the MEED Projects Awards 2026 …

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16949416/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egypt signs gas deal with QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil

    22 May 2026

    Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources has signed a preliminary gas agreement with state-owned QatarEnergy and US-based Exxon Mobil.

    The memorandum of understanding (MoU) focuses on cooperation in the development of natural gas discoveries in Cyprus.

    The plan involves transporting gas from offshore discoveries in Cypriot waters to Egypt via pipelines.

    In a statement, Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources said that the deal would strengthen the North African country’s status as a regional hub for natural gas trading.

    The agreement was witnessed by Egypt’s Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouli.

    It was signed by Muhammad Al-Bajouri, from the legal affairs department of the Ministry of Petroleum & Minerals, and Kanan Nariman, vice-president for the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at Exxon Mobil.

    It was also signed by Ali Immunae, director of international exploration and production at QatarEnergy.

    Commenting on the MoU signing, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the minister of state for energy affairs, and president and chief executive of QatarEnergy, said: “This MoU represents an important step in advancing regional energy cooperation across the Eastern Mediterranean through unlocking the long-term commercial potential of natural gas resources across that region.”

    Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources said the agreement paved the way for QatarEnergy and Exxon to take advantage of existing Egyptian infrastructure in the gas sector, especially the country’s existing LNG export terminals.

    Under the terms of the agreement, a study will be conducted to analyse the feasibility of linking the gas discoveries in Cyprus to Egypt’s gas facilities.

    The signatories will also establish a commercial framework aimed at achieving “the maximum possible benefit from natural gas resources in both Egypt and Cyprus”.

    Egypt’s Minister of Oil and Gas Karim Badawi said the ministry has been working with ExxonMobil to explore cooperation on the development of gas discoveries in Cyprus.

    He said the partnership with Egypt would help QatarEnergy and Exxon reduce the cost of developing the discoveries while allowing Egypt to achieve an economic return.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16944918/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait’s Heisco working on active projects worth $3.5bn

    22 May 2026

     

    Kuwait’s Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco) is in a strong position to weather challenges in the country’s project market, with active projects worth $3.5bn, according to documents seen by MEED.

    The company also has active maintenance and service contracts that are worth $843m.

    Heisco’s projects span the oil, gas, power, water, construction, transport and industrial sectors.

    The company’s biggest active project contract is the $576m project to upgrade Kuwait’s Doha West power station.

    This contract was awarded to Heisco by Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water & Renewable Energy (MEW) in July 2024.

    The company’s second-biggest active project is focused on the construction of crude oil pipelines and associated works in North Kuwait.

    This $565m contract was awarded to Heisco by Kuwait’s state-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) in February this year.

    Other major project contracts include a $442m MEW contract for the rehabilitation of the Az-Zour South power and water distillation station and a $223m KOC contract for the construction of flowlines and associated works in the West Kuwait Area.

    Heisco’s biggest active maintenance contract is worth $295m and is focused on providing mechanical maintenance services at Kuwait’s Mina Abdullah Refinery.

    This contract was awarded by the state-owned downstream operator Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) in July 2023 and it officially started in September that year.

    The contract is currently due to conclude in November 2028.

    Heisco’s second-biggest active maintenance contract is worth $95m and was awarded by Wafra Joint Operations (WJO) for work in the Divided Zone, which is shared by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

    WJO’s onshore operations cover an area of about 5,000 square kilometres in the Divided Zone.

    Saudi Arabian Chevron and Kuwait Gulf Oil Company are equal shareholders in WJO.

    Six major fields have been discovered in the WJO area to date: Wafra, South Fuwaris, South Umm-Gudair, Humma, Arq and North Wafra.

    Heisco’s Wafra maintenance contract was awarded in October last year and officially started in November the same year.

    The contract is expected to conclude in May 2031 and its scope is focused on the maintenance of tanks and vessels as well as the provision of welding services.

    Market headwinds

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector has been severely impacted by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which all of its crude exports are normally shipped.

    The country recorded zero crude oil exports in April for the first time since the end of the Gulf War in 1991, according to shipping monitor TankerTrackers.com.

    While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to have a significant impact on Kuwait’s project sector for some time, Heisco’s strong project pipeline is likely to help it weather the challenging economic environment.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16792105/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Eni makes oil and gas discovery in Egypt

    22 May 2026

    A joint venture of Italy’s Eni and state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) has made a major oil and gas discovery in Egypt’s Western Desert region.

    The partnership, known as Agiba Petroleum Company, made the discovery with an exploratory well drilled in the Bustan South block.

    Initial estimates indicate the presence of approximately 330 billion cubic feet of gas and 10 million barrels of condensate and crude oil.

    Together, this is a total of 70 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe), making the discovery Agiba Petroleum Company’s biggest in 15 years.

    The new discovery is located only 10 kilometres from existing facilities and infrastructure, which should enable rapid development and connection to production.

    The well revealed several sandstone and limestone reservoirs, according to a statement from Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources.

    The ministry said: “This new discovery reflects the success of the Ministry of Petroleum & Mineral Resources’ efforts and the incentives it offered to partners to intensify exploration activities in areas adjacent to existing fields.

    “This facilitates new discoveries near existing infrastructure and production facilities without the need for new infrastructure development.

    “This contributes to reducing the cost of producing a barrel, accelerating the integration of discoveries into the production map, and encouraging partners to implement the latest data collection and analysis technologies to increase the chances of successful exploration.”

    Egypt is seeing increased interest in its oil and gas resources due to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which have significantly reduced oil and gas exports from the GCC and Iraq.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16944815/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • King Salman airport selects three contractors for apron ECI

    21 May 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s King Salman International Airport Development Company (KSIADC) has selected three groups to deliver the Terminal 6 apron, taxiways and other airfield infrastructure at King Salman International airport (KSIA) in Riyadh.

    KSIADC, which is backed by Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund, will initially deliver the project on an early contractor involvement (ECI) basis.

    The selected groups are:

    • Nesma & Partners / Limak / Samsung C&T / Alayuni Investment & Contracting (local/Turkiye/South Korea/local)
    • Shibh Al-Jazira Contracting Company / Top International Engineering Corporation (local/China)
    • Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company / IC Ictas (local/Turkiye)

    The ECI process requires selected contractors to submit methodologies for the project and a design proposal. One team will then be selected for the construction.

    MEED understands that the total package could be worth upto $800m.

    In March, MEED exclusively reported that KSIADC had selected three groups for the construction of Terminal 6 at KSIA in Riyadh.

    In November last year, MEED exclusively reported that KSIADC was targeting mid-2026 to award the contract for the construction of Terminal 6.

    MEED reported in May 2025 that US firm Bechtel Corporation had been appointed as the delivery partner for the terminals at KSIA.

    According to local media reports, KSIADC’s acting CEO, Marco Mejia, said the project developer had completed the project’s masterplan.

    The reports added that Terminal 6 will boost the airport’s capacity by 40 million passengers.

    The project is expected to be delivered before the start of Expo 2030 Riyadh.

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16937556/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal