meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

US elections set to disappoint region

22 January 2024

 

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.

Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.

But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.

A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.

Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.

The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.

As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.

Trump agenda

This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?

Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.

Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.

In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.

Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.

Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.

Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House

Regional letdown

Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.

Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.

For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.

His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk. 

The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.

Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.

Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.

The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.

There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.

Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.

Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.

And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.

Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11452447/main.gif
Edmund O’Sullivan

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Contractors prepare bids for more Qiddiya infrastructure

    8 October 2026

     

    Saudi gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) has tendered a design-and-build contract covering infrastructure works at District 0 in Qiddiya City.

    The scope includes the design, supply, construction, testing, commissioning and defects liability period for Road I in District 17, Road Q in District 19 and the District 18 Ring Road.

    In total, the package covers approximately 17.4 kilometres of roads, including 1.4km of bridge structures.

    Contractors have until 14 October to submit proposals.

    Beirut-headquartered Dar Al-Handasah is the lead design consultant for districts 17 and 19, with a remit that also includes potable water and recycled water storage tanks and pumping stations.

    US-based Jacobs is the lead design consultant for the District 18 Ring Road.

    The tender is the third infrastructure package for Qiddiya’s District 0. The first two packages, tendered in March, remain under procurement, as MEED exclusively reported.

    MEED understands that bid evaluation for these packages is in its final stages and that awards are expected shortly.

    QIC is also advancing plans to develop additional assets at Qiddiya City.

    Last month, MEED exclusively reported that QIC had awarded an estimated $500m-$600m contract to build an e-games arena, known as the Fortress Arena.

    The scope of work includes the construction of an auditorium with a capacity of about 5,100 seats, as well as commercial areas, hospitality facilities and other associated infrastructure.

    The Fortress Arena is one of several major projects within the wider Qiddiya development.

    Other projects include the Dragon Ball theme park, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Stadium, a horse-racing venue, a performing arts centre, the Speed Park, the National Tennis Centre, Six Flags Qiddiya City and Aquarabia water park.

    The project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom. According to UK analytics firm GlobalData, leisure tourism in Saudi Arabia has grown significantly in recent years.

    MEED’s October 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Saudi projects hold steady
    > GOVERNMENT: Riyadh looks to reset its regional defence outlook
    > ECONOMY: Conflict bolsters case for Saudi economic diversification
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders readjust to lower lending and deposit climate
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco upstream spending gathers pace
    > DOWNSTREAM: Sabic steps up Saudi petchems investment
    > POWER: Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows
    > WATER: Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction defies the headwinds
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi infrastructure pushes forward amid conflict
    > DATABANK: Saudi data indicates project spending shift

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20384978/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Chinese contractors begin Jordan rail construction

    8 October 2026

     

    Beijing-headquartered firms China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) and China First Highway Engineering Company (CFHEC) have started construction work on the Aqaba-Al-Shidiyeh-Maan Railway project in Jordan.

    The 403-kilometre rail network is divided into six packages. CCECC is executing packages one to four, while CFHEC is undertaking packages five and six.

    The scope of work covers constructing railway tracks, about 55 bridges, six tunnels and related structures.

    The project aims to link Aqaba with key mining and production sites and the Maan logistics zone, establishing an integrated system for transporting bulk cargo and containers between ports, production centres and inland logistics facilities.

    The network is expected to carry around 16 million tonnes of phosphate and potash each year from production sites to Aqaba’s ports.

    In April 2025, a French-Swiss joint venture of Egis and Arx was awarded the project’s design consultancy contract.

    The estimated $2.5bn project is being developed by the Jordan-UAE Railway Company, which is jointly owned by Abu Dhabi’s L’imad Holding and Jordanian entities including the Jordan Phosphate Mines Company, the Government Investments Management Company, the Social Security Investment Fund and the Arab Potash Company.

    Jordanian and UAE officials attended a groundbreaking ceremony held earlier this week to mark the formal start of construction work.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20371915/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq discusses starting operations at $3.78bn refinery project

    8 October 2026

    Iraq’s Minister of Oil, Basem Muhammad Khudair Al-Abadi, has met with Japanese officials to discuss plans to commission the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit at the Basra refinery upgrade project, according to a ministry statement.

    The meeting was attended by the Japanese Embassy’s executive officer as well as representatives from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica) and Japan-based JGC, which is the main contractor on the project.

    According to the ministry, discussions focused on direct implementation steps and coordination between Iraqi authorities and the Japanese partners to bring the unit online using Japanese refining technologies.

    Iraq’s South Refineries Company (SRC) sent JGC notice of the main contract award for the Basra refinery upgrade project’s FCC package in August 2020.

    JGC was awarded the contract in consortium with South Korea’s Hyundai E&C.

    The official contract signing ceremony was held in Baghdad on 1 October 2020.

    The contract awarded to JGC, which uses the engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning model, was worth $3.78bn.

    Project delays

    The project has faced issues related to the ongoing regional conflict, which started when the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.

    JGC evacuated its personnel from the site in the southern oil hub of Basra following the start of the regional war, stopping work on the project, which was in its final stages of construction.

    In August, JGC signed an agreement to restart work.

    The project will produce around 5 million litres a day of gasoline and 7 million litres a day of diesel.

    The FCC package is part of a broader project to upgrade the Basra refinery.

    Oil Ministry officials said in late 2025 that the Basra refinery upgrade project aims to slash Iraq’s fuel import bill and convert heavy refining residues into high-value petroleum products.

    The project site is located about 12 kilometres east of Iraq’s southern city of Basra.

    The wider upgrade project is installing new facilities on land adjacent to the existing Basra refinery, including a vacuum distillation unit and a diesel desulphurisation unit.

    In April 2021, France’s Axens won a contract to provide four process technologies to SRC for the Basra refinery upgrade project.

    The technologies that SRC selected are:

    • Diesel hydrotreatment unit (Prime-D)
    • Vacuum gasoil (VGO) hydrotreating unit
    • VGO fluid catalytic cracker unit
    • Oligomerisation unit (polynaphtha)

    In addition, Axens is providing catalysts and adsorbents and proprietary equipment, training and technical services.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20366574/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Drilling resumes at Iraq’s Akkas field

    8 October 2026

     

    Drilling has resumed as part of the project to further develop Iraq’s Akkas gas field, according to industry sources.

    In March, MEED reported that development of the field had been disrupted by security issues related to the US and Israel’s war with Iran.

    Activity at the project site had been significantly reduced due to security concerns, which led to the evacuation of most non-Iraqi workers.

    Now, the project is progressing and drilling at the field is ongoing, sources said.

    One source said: “Many of the major issues that stopped drilling at the site have been dealt with in various ways, and the development of the field is proceeding.”

    Iraq held a ceremony in January to mark the start of drilling operations under the current phase of development. In July of the previous year, the Iraqi Oil Ministry announced a contract with US-based oilfield services provider SLB to develop the field. Under the agreement, SLB is drilling wells to raise initial output to 100 million cubic feet a day (cf/d), with a long-term production target of 400 million cf/d.

    The contract with SLB replaced a previous deal with Ukraine-based Ukrzemresurs, which has been terminated.

    It also covers the construction of surface infrastructure and pipelines to connect Akkas to central processing units.

    The gas produced at Akkas will fuel the Anbar combined-cycle power plant, which the Electricity Ministry is building.

    Akkas gas field development

    Located in western Anbar province, Akkas holds an estimated 5.6 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves. The field was discovered in 1992 and entered initial production in 1993, but efforts to develop it commercially have faced repeated delays.

    Development rights were originally awarded to a consortium of South Korea’s Kogas and Kazakhstan’s KazMunaiGas (KMG) during Iraq’s third licensing round in 2010. After KMG withdrew, Kogas took over as sole operator under revised contractual terms before work was subsequently halted.

    In April 2024, the Oil Ministry signed an agreement with Ukraine’s Ukrzemresurs targeting 100 million cf/d within two years and 400 million cf/d within four years. However, the deal faced strong domestic political resistance.

    Iraq’s parliamentary Oil and Gas Committee opposed the award, with committee member Ali Al-Mashkour telling Shafaq News Agency: “This contract involves a great waste of Iraq’s wealth, and there will be a waste of Iraq’s oil, and this confirms that Iraq is once again failing to choose reputable companies to work with in the most important economic field in the country.”

    He added: “We will work to uncover and expose the suspicions in this contract during the next stage, especially since this contract was made by some representatives for specific interests, which we will reveal soon with evidence.”

    The deal was subsequently terminated, paving the way for the current contract with SLB.

    The development of Akkas is central to Baghdad’s broader ambition to transition from a net gas importer into an exporter. Iraq remains heavily dependent on gas imports from Iran to meet domestic electricity demand. Both the US and Saudi Arabia have backed Iraq’s efforts to develop non-associated gas fields to reduce its economic and energy dependence on Tehran.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20366494/main5816.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Neom extends bid deadline for Oxagon wastewater plant

    8 October 2026

     

    Neom has extended the bid submission deadline for a contract to build a wastewater treatment plant for Oxagon, its industrial cluster.

    According to a source, the new deadline is 25 October. The original deadline was 2 October.

    Enowa, Neom’s energy and water utility, is tendering the contract.

    The industrial wastewater treatment package will have an initial capacity of 35,000 cubic metres a day (cm/d), supplied in modular trains of 5,000 cm/d each. A separate sanitary wastewater treatment package will have a capacity of 1,000 cm/d.

    The contract is structured as a design-build-operate project and covers the supply, installation and commissioning of industrial and sanitary wastewater treatment packages, as well as three years of operation and maintenance.

    According to sources, local contractor Alfanar, Beijing-based PowerChina and France-based Veolia are among the companies preparing bids.

    The project follows an earlier tender for the Oxagon Village Water Recycling Plant, which was cancelled despite contractors submitting bids in 2024.

    MEED reported at the time that PowerChina, Alfanar and Cairo-headquartered Orascom had submitted bids for that project.

    The earlier scheme included truck-receiving facilities, pretreatment, biological treatment using food chain reactor technology, tertiary treatment, sludge handling and recycled-water storage.

    The latest procurement appears to take a reworked approach to wastewater treatment at Oxagon Industrial Quarter. It replaces the previous engineering, procurement and construction scheme with an interim modular and demountable facility.

    The plant is designed to provide “interim wastewater treatment” capacity for Oxagon Industrial Quarter as industrial development progresses.

    As MEED understands, this includes treatment systems that can be installed and subsequently removed or relocated as requirements at Oxagon evolve. The plant can be expanded to a maximum capacity of 45,000 cm/d.

    The tender documents also state that Neom may consider export credit agency (ECA) financing for the project. The strength of bidders’ ECA financing proposals will form part of the commercial evaluation.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20347018/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall