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US elections set to disappoint region

22 January 2024

 

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.

Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.

But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.

A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.

Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.

The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.

As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.

Trump agenda

This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?

Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.

Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.

In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.

Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.

Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.

Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House

Regional letdown

Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.

Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.

For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.

His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk. 

The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.

Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.

Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.

The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.

There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.

Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.

Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.

And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.

Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr

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Edmund O’Sullivan

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    Billions of dollars’ worth of deals were announced at the Leap technology conference in the Saudi capital in late August and early September – a welcome fillip for an economy that is struggling to deal with the effects of the Iran war.

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    Technology is a priority area for the Saudi government’s economic diversification efforts and, for now at least, the indicators are moving in the right direction. The Public Investment Fund’s AI subsidiary, Humain, has been particularly active in striking deals, and other bodies are also throwing their weight behind the sector. A few days before Leap got under way, the Royal Commission for Riyadh City launched the Riyadh Digital Innovation District, aimed at turning the capital into a technology and innovation hub.

    Economic strains

    The wider economic picture is, however, far more mixed. Figures issued by the General Authority for Statistics in mid-August revealed a 4.8% contraction in GDP in the second quarter of the year, compared with the same period a year earlier. The decline was driven by a 25% contraction in the oil sector.

    Hydrocarbons remain the central pillar of the Saudi economy, and the Iran war has placed it under enormous pressure, with exports through the Strait of Hormuz difficult – if not impossible – for much of the past six months. The alternative route via the Red Sea has its own difficulties, thanks to Houthi attacks on shipping around the Bab El-Mandeb strait. As a result, Saudi oil cargoes heading to Asia are being diverted via the Suez Canal and around Africa – a route that adds weeks to the journey.

    Lower oil revenues weaken the state’s fiscal position and are leading to larger budget deficits, which need to be funded through other means. On 1 September, the National Debt Management Centre (NDMC) announced it had sold $3.25bn-worth of sharia-compliant bonds (sukuk) to international investors. It said it had received orders for $16.5bn, indicating there remains strong appetite among overseas buyers.

    In May, the NDMC said it had secured around 90% of the government’s funding needs for the year, even before the euphemistically named “geopolitical events” had broken out. It added at the time that, should additional financing be needed, it would turn to “private channels and local markets” as the main funding sources, while also monitoring international markets to see if “favourable opportunities arise”.

    One positive element amid the gloom is that the non-oil private sector has proved relatively resilient and has continued to grow for most of the time since the war began in late February. The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey compiled by Riyad Bank shows the non-oil sector expanded each month from April to August. Reviewing the latest PMI data, Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, said it expected the Saudi non-oil economy to “maintain solid growth momentum through the second half of the year”.

    However, there are warning signs. Job creation is relatively weak, and business confidence is fragile: in the August PMI survey, only one in five respondents said they expected increased activity over the next 12 months.

    Other data points offer further reasons for caution. Saudi bank deposits fell slightly in July to SR3.11tn ($820bn) – the first drop since October last year – according to data from the central bank.

    Exports are also struggling due to higher transport costs. Saudi Arabia’s total exports were 10% lower in the second quarter of the year than in the first. The government is reportedly weighing a scheme to reduce insurance costs for shipping companies in an effort to bolster exports, but Oxford Economics said it expects the kingdom’s exports “to remain weak through the rest of this year”.

    Perhaps the biggest risk is uncertainty. The Iran conflict was relatively muted through much of August, but flared again in early September when Tehran and Washington exchanged fire. Saudi Arabia has not suffered as many hits from Iranian missiles as Bahrain, Kuwait or Jordan, but that could change.

    Investor test

    Against that backdrop, the push for economic diversification is as strong as ever. The Leap technology conference in August offered a sense of how things could develop. The Future Investment Initiative (FII) event in October will provide another litmus test of international investor appetite.

    Riyadh is trying to build momentum ahead of the event, releasing a list of speakers in late August that included BlackRock chief executive Laurence Fink, Goldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon and JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon.

    The past nine editions of FII have been a stage for billions of dollars in investment pledges – more than $50bn-worth of agreements were announced at last year’s event – but none has taken place against such a difficult geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop. Riyadh’s policymakers will be hoping investors can look past the current crisis and provide further fillips for the economy.

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    Despite a geopolitical backdrop that has unsettled contractors and financiers alike, Saudi Arabia’s construction sector is on course for one of its strongest years on record.

    Contract awards in the kingdom’s construction sector hit $20bn in the first half of 2026, comfortably outpacing the $15bn recorded over the same period in 2025 and the roughly $17bn seen in the first half of 2024. These figures suggest that whatever recalibration the market has been going through, momentum is building again rather than fading.

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    The scale of the turnaround is easier to appreciate against the market’s recent trajectory. Construction contract awards fell 31% in 2025, dropping to $31bn from $45bn the year before, according to regional project tracker MEED Projects.

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    • Yasref (Yanbu): Conversion of the Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Company (Yasref) complex into an integrated refinery and petrochemicals complex through the addition of a mixed-feed cracker. China’s Sinopec is a joint-venture partner in the project.
       
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  • Six groups qualify for Saudi Arabia’s Qassim airport PPP

    7 September 2026

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    Saudi Arabia’s Civil Aviation Holding Company (Matarat), through the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP), has qualified five groups and one standalone company to bid for a contract to develop Prince Naif Bin Abdulaziz International airport in Qassim, Saudi Arabia.

    These include:

    1. YDA Insaat / Safari Group / Lamar Holding / Egis (Turkiye/local/Bahrain/France)
    2. Ports Projects Management & Development Company / Algihaz Holding (local/local)
    3. Mada International Holding / TAV Airports Holding (local/Turkiye)
    4. Namaya International Investment Company / Oman Airports Management Company / AlBawani Capital / Tanama (local/Oman/local/UAE)
    5. Vision Invest / Asyad Holding / DAA International (local/local/Ireland)
    6. GMR Airports (India)

    The prequalification process follows 89 firms expressing interest in the contract, as MEED reported in March.

    The project scope includes the redevelopment of the passenger terminal as well as other associated facilities such as airside infrastructure, including runway, taxiways and aprons.

    The project will be developed on a design-finance-construction-operations-maintenance-transfer basis.

    The clients issued an expression of interest notice for the project on 9 February, and companies were given until 23 February to submit responses.

    Tendering is also ongoing for the new Taif International airport project in Mecca Province. 

    The new Taif International airport will be located 21 kilometres southeast of the existing Taif airport and will have a capacity of 2.5 million passengers by 2030.

    In addition to a new airport terminal, the proposed design features a runway with a full-length parallel taxiway connecting to a single commercial apron.

    The scope includes facility buildings, utility networks, car parks and access roads, as well as provisions for additional expansions to meet future subsystem requirements.

    The new airport is expected to meet the projected increase in demand by 2055 and contribute to the economic development of the city of Taif and its surrounding areas, in line with the kingdom’s National Aviation Strategy.

    It is also expected to meet the needs of Umrah pilgrims, as an alternative within the region’s multi-airport system, which includes King Abdulaziz airport in Jeddah, Prince Mohammed Bin Abdulaziz airport in Medina and Prince Abdulmohsen Bin Abdulaziz airport in Yanbu.

    Previous tenders

    The Taif, Hail and Qassim airport schemes were previously tendered and awarded as public-private partnership (PPP) projects using the build-transfer-operate (BTO) model.

    Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca) awarded the contracts to develop four airport PPP projects to two separate consortiums in 2017.

    A team of Turkiye’s TAV Airports and the local Al-Rajhi Holding Group won the 30-year concession agreement to build, transfer and operate airport passenger terminals in Yanbu, Qassim and Hail.

    A second team, comprising Lebanon’s Consolidated Contractors Company, Germany’s Munich Airport International and local firm Asyad Group, won the BTO contract to develop Taif International airport.

    However, these projects stalled following the restructuring of the kingdom’s aviation sector.

    Saudi Arabia has already privatised airports including the $1.2bn Prince Mohammed Bin Abdulaziz International airport in Medina, which was developed as a PPP and opened in 2015.

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    Yasir Iqbal