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US elections set to disappoint region

22 January 2024

 

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.

Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.

But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.

A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.

Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.

The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.

As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.

Trump agenda

This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?

Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.

Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.

In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.

Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.

Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.

Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House

Regional letdown

Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.

Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.

For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.

His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk. 

The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.

Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.

Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.

The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.

There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.

Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.

Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.

And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.

Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr

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Edmund O’Sullivan

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  • Stability holds as project work continues

    14 October 2026

     

    When Dean McGrail describes the performance of the region’s construction market, he keeps returning to a single word: “stable”.

    After initial concerns that the market would experience a sharp downturn and project cancellations following the onset of conflict in the region, regional president McGrail says WSP has yet to see a single major contract cancelled across its regional portfolio.

    “We have seen some projects re-evaluated – questions around whether the mix between residential and commercial is right, and whether it should be luxury residential,” he says. “But as of today, we have not seen any projects cancelled, which is a real sign of resilience in the market.”

    Under the surface

    That resilience does not mean nothing has changed. McGrail is careful to separate re-evaluation from cancellation. Projects already on site and selling into the market are pressing ahead. It is schemes that have not yet been released for off-plan sales that are being paused and reconsidered.

    “None of the projects we are currently involved in have been put on hold or suspended,” he says. “It is more re-evaluation. Some of that is investor sentiment, but some of it is materials and logistics as well, which people do not necessarily consider.”

    Logistics, in particular, is a pressure that rarely makes the headlines. According to McGrail, shipping disruption has complicated the delivery of heavy equipment on certain schemes. “If we have big pieces of kit coming in – chillers or turbines for a power station – that becomes challenging,” he says.

    The bigger question is viability. And while rising material costs, set against softening sales prices, are forcing developers to reappraise the numbers, for now the balance sits firmly on the side of continuity. McGrail estimates that revalidation and feasibility work accounts for less than 3% of the firm’s current order book, with the remainder progressing as normal.

    “Requests for proposals have not slowed down across any of our disciplines or business units,” he says. “We are definitely seeing an uptick in infrastructure.”

    Infrastructure pivot

    That focus points to where McGrail expects the next few years of growth to come from. Rail sits at the centre of the UAE story, alongside road upgrades and other major developments in Abu Dhabi. In Dubai, the clearest signal of intent is the expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport.

    “Al-Maktoum is a really good indicator of the future direction of travel,” he says. “That is not a project that is slowing down. There has been a commitment to Emirates that it will move there, and it is still progressing.”

    The scale of the airport – and the challenge of relocating an airline the size of Emirates in one move – raises the question of how it will be funded. Here, McGrail returns to the theme of stability and to the mechanism that underpins it.

    “One of the beauties of this region is the ability of government to step in,” he says. “They can fund it. If the private sector does start to suffer, that is the backstop. They push money into infrastructure – roads, rail, airports – which keeps our industry moving.”

    Saudi reset

    In Saudi Arabia, the recalibration story predates the conflict, and McGrail says the change should be read as a strength rather than a retreat.

    “I am positive,” he says. “When the reprioritisation started at the beginning of 2025, having lived through the global financial crisis here, I saw the decision to stop, re-evaluate and reprioritise expenditure as a positive. When Vision 2030 was set, Saudi Arabia had not won Expo or the World Cup, so the reprioritisation was the right thing to do. Saudi Arabia will come out of it stronger. Short-term pain, long-term gain.”

    The nature of the work is shifting with the budget. McGrail sees the kingdom moving towards a model long familiar in the UAE, in which core infrastructure and a handful of landmark buildings are delivered first, before surrounding plots are carved up and sold on.

    “You establish a few key iconic buildings, then the plots on the outside are carved up and they look for external investment to come in and develop them,” he says. “It is no different from Downtown Dubai, where Emaar built the Burj Khalifa and a few buildings, then started selling plots.”

    That approach is increasingly tied to public-private partnerships (PPPs), although McGrail is measured on how far the model will stretch.

    “PPP is definitely becoming more prevalent on some of the larger infrastructure projects, though still not as significant as it was made out to be when they first started talking about it,” he says. He sees industrials, mining, healthcare and schools as a natural fit, rather than PPP becoming a blanket procurement route.

    Aviation is another priority. WSP was recently appointed to the rehabilitation of the existing terminal at Jeddah’s King Abdulaziz International airport, alongside a new terminal. It also recently secured a role on the expansion and upgrade of King Fahd International airport in Dammam.

    “Aviation is definitely a key area of focus for us as we head into the next 12, 24, 36 months,” McGrail says.

    Beyond the two dominant markets, McGrail sees pockets of activity but no challenge to the balance of the portfolio. In Qatar, he points to a recovery taking shape towards the end of last year, with WSP active on the Qatar Children’s Museum and continuing its long-running work with the Public Works Authority (Ashghal). Oman is generating masterplanning work, including reviving the Blue City scheme.

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  • Gas-fired projects drive resilience in UAE power sector

    14 October 2026

     

    The $3bn Taweelah C combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) project has been the UAE power sector’s standout contract award this year, accounting for the majority of the $4.17bn in awards as of early September.

    The total is well below the record $12.02bn awarded in 2025, when Abu Dhabi’s $6bn round-the-clock solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (bess) project lifted the market to record levels. However, 2026 remains broadly consistent with recent years, compared with $5.93bn in 2024 and $3.05bn in 2023.

    According to MEED Projects, generation accounted for $3.06bn across three awards, while transmission contracts totalled $1.11bn.

    Gas-fired focus

    Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) signed the power-purchase agreement (PPA) for Taweelah C in June with a consortium comprising Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa), Saudi Arabia’s Al-Jomaih Energy & Water Company and Singapore’s Sembcorp Industries.

    The scale of the 2.5GW independent power producer (IPP) provides a useful lens through which to view the wider market. Although the UAE continues to expand solar generation and battery storage, it is still investing heavily in flexible thermal capacity to support rising electricity demand and a grid with significant renewable generation.

    Major gas-fired opportunities are also moving into the Northern Emirates, with state utility Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) preparing to receive offers from five contractor groups for the 2.6GW Al-Zawra CCGT project in Ajman.

    The project follows the retirement of EtihadWE’s older 200MW Al-Zawra gas plant in 2023. With Ewec acting as offtaker, the scheme also points to a wider role for EtihadWE in developing large-scale generation.

    It is understood that the Ajman project will be the first of at least three planned power plant projects procured by the utility under a new long-term roadmap for future projects across both power and water.

    Abu Dhabi’s 3.3GW Al-Nouf IPP is another major gas-fired plant moving towards execution. Japan’s Sumitomo Corporation is expected to formally sign the PPA by the end of the year, while the joint venture of Spain’s Tecnicas Reunidas and Egypt’s Orascom Construction is also set to be confirmed as the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor.

    To put this into context, the deal would make 2026 the second most valuable year for power sector investment on record, eclipsing both 2017 and 2018, when contract awards in the UAE reached $7.39bn and $7.27bn, respectively.

    Solar and storage

    The UAE’s renewable procurement is increasingly combining solar generation with storage to provide electricity beyond daylight hours.

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) is preparing to award the seventh phase of the Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park, with Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) submitting the lowest tariff for the project in July.

    China’s BYD will act as a bess supplier for the project, which combines 2,000MW of PV capacity with a 1,400MW bess designed to discharge for six hours, equivalent to 8,400MWh of stored energy.

    The storage component will allow Dewa to use more solar power after sunset, reducing the gap between daytime generation and the evening demand peak.

    The 1,800MW sixth phase is also nearing completion, with Larsen & Toubro delivering the estimated $1.5bn project for Shuaa Energy 4, the project company formed by Dewa and Masdar.

    Dewa has increased the planned capacity of the solar park to 7,260MW by 2030, from its earlier target of 5,000MW.

    Furthermore, Ewec is advancing its 1.5GW Al-Zarraf solar PV plant, with EDF and Korea Western Power Company selected as the consortium to develop the project.

    Grid expansion

    Multibillion-dollar IPP schemes have driven annual award values in recent years, while transmission work continues to provide a steadier flow of opportunities for contractors and equipment suppliers.

    Transmission awards fell to $1.11bn across 22 packages in 2026, from $2.98bn in 2025, reflecting the absence of a comparable large-scale package rather than a halt in network investment.

    Ewec and Taqa are expanding 400kV and 132kV networks across Abu Dhabi and the Northern Emirates, while Dewa continues to reinforce its cable and substation systems in Dubai.

    In September, EtihadWE received bids for a contract to carry out a techno-economic feasibility study for a proposed 2GW subsea electricity interconnector with India.

    The proposed 1,400-kilometre link would be the UAE’s first direct subsea cross-border electricity interconnector, illustrating a potential longer-term ambition to connect the UAE to wider regional and international power markets.

    Earlier this year, the GCC Interconnection Authority awarded Omexom, part of France’s Vinci Group, a contract to build a 400kV overhead transmission line between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

    In October, the UAE and Saudi Arabia signed a memorandum of understanding to advance cross-border electricity interconnection, paving the way for feasibility studies on power exchange, commercial electricity trading and the expansion of the wider GCC interconnection grid.

    Waste-to-energy

    Waste-to-energy continues to become an increasingly important part of the UAE’s infrastructure pipeline as the country seeks to reduce landfill dependence and diversify its power mix through alternative generation sources.

    Dubai Municipality recently invited developers to submit expressions of interest for its planned Jebel Ali waste-to-energy public-private partnership, a greenfield facility designed to treat up to 6,000 tonnes of municipal solid waste a day.

    According to a source, the municipality plans to prequalify developers later this year, then issue a request for proposals in the first quarter of 2027.

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  • Riyadh awards $1.5bn metro rolling stock contracts

    14 October 2026

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    Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has signed contracts worth about SR5.5bn ($1.5bn) to procure 94 additional trains for the Riyadh Metro network.

    Germany’s Siemens and France’s Alstom have been awarded the contracts. They cover rolling stock manufacture, onboard systems, equipment and related services.

    The procurement will increase the metro fleet from 183 to 277 trains. Deliveries are due to begin in phases in 2028, with the additional units subject to testing and operational trials before entering service.

    RCRC expects the programme to increase the network’s passenger capacity by 60%.

    The additional trains will be distributed across the six metro lines based on current demand and projected ridership.

    The Red Line will receive the largest capacity increase, at 142%, followed by the Yellow Line at 116% and the Blue Line at 60%. Capacity on the Orange and Purple lines will increase by 27% and 16%, respectively.

    Daily capacity on the Blue Line is set to increase from about 340,000 to 533,000 passengers. Capacity on the Red Line will rise from 154,000 to 370,000 passengers a day, while the Yellow Line will increase from 133,000 to more than 288,000.

    The expansion is intended to meet rising demand for public transport as Riyadh prepares to host Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup, alongside continued growth in residential, commercial and entertainment developments.

    Speaking at the 37th government press conference, RCRC chief executive Ibrahim Al-Sultan said the metro has carried more than 300 million passengers since it began operating.

    Average metro ridership rose by about 25% in the first nine months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, he added.

    The wider Riyadh public transport system, including buses and the metro, is approaching 500 million passenger journeys.

    MEED’s October 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Saudi projects hold steady
    > GOVERNMENT: Riyadh looks to reset its regional defence outlook
    > ECONOMY: Conflict bolsters case for Saudi economic diversification
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders readjust to lower lending and deposit climate
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco upstream spending gathers pace
    > DOWNSTREAM: Sabic steps up Saudi petchems investment
    > POWER: Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows
    > WATER: Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction defies the headwinds
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi infrastructure pushes forward amid conflict
    > DATABANK: Saudi data indicates project spending shift

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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  • Jeddah extends bid deadline for drainage scheme

    14 October 2026

     

    Jeddah Municipality has extended the deadline for contractors to submit bids for the construction of a rainwater drainage network for the Prince Fawaz neighbourhood.

    The new deadline is 15 November. The original deadline was 12 October.

    The project aims to collect and convey rainwater away from residential streets and low-lying areas. It is valued at $60m and is intended to reduce flood risk during heavy rainfall.

    The scope includes manholes, stormwater catch basins and connections to existing manholes, as well as the restoration of road surfaces.

    Prince Fawaz is a residential district in southern Jeddah, divided into northern and southern sections.

    It is connected to the Mecca-Jeddah Expressway and Al-Harmain Road, with road improvements in the southern section designed to improve access for residents and neighbouring districts

    The municipality is also advancing a second stormwater drainage project for the first package of Zone (BC), Old Zahraa, in Jeddah Governorate. The project is valued at about $30m.

    According to a source, bids were submitted for the project on 16 September.

    The two projects are part of the municipality’s wider drainage programme, which includes the flagship King Abdullah Road-Falasteen Road tunnel project.

    MEED previously reported that Saudi contractor Thrustboring Construction Company had been selected for phases one and two of the project, each valued at about $175m, covering the construction of large-diameter stormwater drainage tunnels. As of August, an official agreement had yet to be signed.

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  • US initiates procurement for Expo 2030 Riyadh pavilion

    14 October 2026

     

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    The US Department of State has initiated market research to procure a design-and-build contract for the US Pavilion at Expo 2030 Riyadh.

    According to procurement documents released through the US federal contracting portal, the project covers the full design, construction, exhibition fit-out, maintenance, and eventual decommissioning and removal of the national pavilion.

    The total cost for the design, construction and decommissioning packages is estimated at $55m to $65m.

    The request for information notice was issued on 9 October.

    The pavilion will be developed on plot P5.N1.B03.01 within the Expo 2030 masterplan’s Technology district, fronting the Loop of Nations corridor.

    It spans 5,368 square metres (sq m), with a maximum permitted gross floor area (GFA) of 8,052 sq m and an overall building height limit of 20 metres.

    The planned temporary structure will rise approximately three storeys and house between 5,000 and 6,000 sq m of exhibition space. The brief requires the facility to accommodate at least 23,000 visitors a day over the event’s six-month duration.

    Additional programme elements include:

    • A rooftop garden and restaurant
    • Two commercial kitchens
    • A VIP reception suite
    • Dedicated retail and administrative office space
    • Back-of-house operational areas and exterior shaded public landscaping

    Interested contractors and joint ventures have been invited to submit capability statements by 11 November. Bidders must demonstrate prior experience delivering major pavilions or large-scale immersive exhibition spaces completed within the past 15 years, alongside international logistics and regional project delivery capabilities.

    UK-based engineering consultancy Buro Happold prepared the plot masterplanning and development guidelines for the zone.

    Another UK-headquartered firm, Trivandi, was selected in April as the operations partner for the US Pavilion at Riyadh Expo.

    Expo 2030 Riyadh will run from October 2030 to March 2031 under the theme Foresight for Tomorrow, with host authorities projecting roughly 42 million visits.

    The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event.

    Situated north of the Saudi capital, the site will be near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to Riyadh landmarks.

    The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched Expo 2030 Riyadh Company – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    MEED’s October 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Saudi projects hold steady
    > GOVERNMENT: Riyadh looks to reset its regional defence outlook
    > ECONOMY: Conflict bolsters case for Saudi economic diversification
    > BANKING: Saudi lenders readjust to lower lending and deposit climate
    > UPSTREAM: Aramco upstream spending gathers pace
    > DOWNSTREAM: Sabic steps up Saudi petchems investment
    > POWER: Saudi Arabia’s power award activity slows
    > WATER: Saudi water sector hits sharp slowdown
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction defies the headwinds
    > TRANSPORT: Saudi infrastructure pushes forward amid conflict
    > DATABANK: Saudi data indicates project spending shift

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20580855/main.jpeg
    Yasir Iqbal