US elections set to disappoint region
22 January 2024

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.
Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.
But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.
A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.
Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.
The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.
As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.
Trump agenda
This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?
Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.
Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.
In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.
Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.
Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.
Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House
Regional letdown
Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.
Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.
For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.
His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk.
The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.
Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.
Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.
The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.
There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.
Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.
Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.
And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.
Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr
Exclusive from Meed
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Contractors prepare bids for Morocco power line2 November 2026
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Adnoc Onshore allows more time for Bab gas cap well tie-in bids2 November 2026
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Bahrain’s Gateway Gulf brings $20bn of deals2 November 2026
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Egypt’s Petrojet wins gas pipeline project worth $170m2 November 2026
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GCC projects market holds its nerve1 November 2026
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Contractors prepare bids for Morocco power line2 November 2026

Contractors are preparing bids for a 160-kilometre (km), 400kV transmission line linking Guercif and Fes East in Morocco, following a site visit on 1 October.
The project is being developed by the Office National de l'Electricite et de l'Eau Potable (Onee) to connect the Saka solar photovoltaic power plant to the national electricity grid.
According to sources, at least eight contractors attended the site visit last month, including:
- Butec (Lebanon)
- CEEC Northeast Electric No.2 (China)
- Cegelec (France)
- EPME Electric (Morocco)
- Hideleco (Egypt)
- Kec International (India)
- PowerChina (China)
- Transrail (India)
The project comprises two lots. The first involves a 90km transmission line between Guercif and Taza, while the second covers a 70km section between Taza and Fes East.
The scope of work includes the construction of tower foundations, installation of transmission supports and conductors, and associated high-voltage equipment. It also includes optical fibre cables for communications and monitoring, access roads and other supporting infrastructure.
The tender was issued in September with bids originally due by 21 October. The deadline has now been extended to 25 November.
The project is part of a wider programme by Onee to expand Morocco's electricity transmission network and accommodate additional renewable energy capacity.
In June, the utility commissioned a 274km, 400kV transmission line linking Chemaia and Mediouna, near Casablanca.
Onee plans to expand its high- and extra-high-voltage transmission network from more than 30,700km to 37,000km by 2030.
In August, it approved a $26.4bn investment programme for the 2026-30 period, covering electricity and drinking water infrastructure.
The programme has allocated about $21.9bn to electricity projects and $4.5bn to drinking water infrastructure, with about 72% of the investment to be financed by the private sector, according to Onee.
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Adnoc Onshore allows more time for Bab gas cap well tie-in bids2 November 2026

The onshore business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Onshore) has allowed contractors more time to prepare proposals for a project to tie in gas-producing and injection wells at the gas cap reservoirs of Abu Dhabi’s onshore Bab field.
The well tie-in scope, estimated to be worth more than $800m, forms part of Adnoc Group’s wider integrated Bab gas cap development programme.
The overall programme is being led and overseen by Adnoc Gas, another Adnoc Group subsidiary. Its central element is the construction of gas-processing infrastructure to handle incremental gas output expected from developing the Bab gas caps.
Adnoc Onshore issued the main tender for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on the project in late September, MEED previously reported.
Contractors have been given until 16 November to submit technical bids for the project, according to sources. The previous deadline was 29 October.
MEED previously reported that Adnoc Onshore issued an expressions of interest (EoI) notice for the Bab gas production and injector well tie-in project on 13 May, with contractors submitting responses by 20 May.
The scope of work on the project covers the following:
- Tie-in of 99 new wells from Bab gas cap reservoirs KH-2, SH-1 and LK-1 (60 gas producers and 39 gas injectors);
- Installation of well gathering structures: 10 gas pads, six well bays and three virtual pads;
- Installation of a gas gathering network and a gas injection network;
- Rerouting of the LK-3 production from the existing trunkline in Remote Manifold Station 3 (RMS-3) to the project’s production trunkline, Bab Gas TL-2;
- Demolition of the existing 10-inch trunkline from RMS-3 to onshore gas development phase one.
In the EoI document, Adnoc Onshore said it intends to award the EPC contract in the last quarter of the year, with a 45-month duration of works.
Bab gas cap project infrastructure
As part of its 2030 upstream production increase goals, Adnoc Group is working to extract gas from four underdeveloped gas cap reservoirs at the Bab onshore field development – Thammama A, Thammama B, Thammama F and Thammama H.
While the Thammama A, B and H reservoirs are estimated to collectively produce 1.45 billion cubic feet a day (cf/d) of gas, output from the Thammama F gas cap is expected to be at a rate of 396 million cf/d.
Existing trains at the Habshan processing complex in Abu Dhabi will be unable to handle the new gas volumes. Therefore, Adnoc Gas is required to build new facilities to process an additional volume of up to 1.85 billion cf/d of raw gas.
Adnoc Gas is planning to build a gas processing plant in the Bab area, about 170 kilometres from Abu Dhabi, along with associated pipeline networks and other ancillary units, as part of the broader Bab gas cap development project. It has divided the EPC scope of work on the project into four packages:
- EPC package 1 – Main Bab gas cap plant
- EPC package 2 – Early civil works
- EPC package 3 – Pipelines
- EPC package 4 – Non-process area works
Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange-listed Adnoc Gas issued the tender for the main Bab gas cap plant on 25 June and set an initial deadline of 17 July for contractors to submit technical bids. The company then extended the technical bid submission deadline by four months, until 16 November, MEED previously reported.
Following a reshuffle of the consortiums gearing up to bid for the main Bab gas plant EPC package, estimated to be worth more than $6bn, the following teams have formed to compete in the main contract tendering round:
- Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) + Petrofac Emirates (UAE)
- Technip Energies (France) + JGC Corporation (Japan) + Sinopec (China)
- Tecnimont (Italy) + China Petroleum Engineering and Construction Corporation (CPECC)
The other three packages of the Bab gas cap project are also in the main contract tendering stages.
Prior to issuing the EoIs for the project packages, Adnoc Gas completed an early engagement process with contractors in September and October last year, as MEED previously reported.
In December last year, Adnoc Gas awarded the front-end engineering and design (feed) works for the development project to Australia-based consultancy Worley. The feed contract has a duration of more than 1.2 million man-hours, making it the largest-ever engineering job awarded by Adnoc Gas.
Bab Gas Cap concession
In addition to Adnoc Gas overseeing the main EPC tendering exercise for the gas processing plant, Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs (SCFEA) awarded concession agreements in June for the development and production of the Bab gas cap reserve.
Adnoc will hold the majority 60% participating interest in the concession. The remaining stakes will be held by France’s TotalEnergies (10%), the UK’s BP (10%), China National Petroleum Corporation International (8%), Japan Oil Development Company Onshore (5%), China ZhenHua Oil (4%) and Korea GS E&P (3%).
According to the SCFEA, the Bab gas cap development and production concession represents the largest gas cap development project of its kind globally, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said in a report.
A gas cap refers to the free natural gas that sits above an underlying oil reservoir – in this case, the Bab onshore oil field in Abu Dhabi.
The project, operated by Adnoc Onshore, is expected to have a production capacity of approximately 1.5 billion cf/d of natural gas, equivalent to about 15% of Adnoc Gas’ total operational gas processing capacity.
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Bahrain’s Gateway Gulf brings $20bn of deals2 November 2026
More than 110 announcements worth over $20bn will be made at the Gateway Gulf Investment Forum in Bahrain, according to the country's finance minister.
"Over the next two days at Gateway Gulf, more than 110 announcements worth over $20bn will be made," Sheikh Salman Bin Khalifa Al-Khalifa, Finance & National Economy Minister, said at the opening of the forum's fourth edition on 1 November in Bahrain.
He said the announcements will cover new partnerships, investments, projects and jobs. Sheikh Salman addressed an audience that included Bahrain's Crown Prince and Prime Minister, Prince Salman Bin Hamad Al-Khalifa.
The minister said the region's economies have been "tested as never before" since the previous edition of the forum a year earlier.
"In the face of unprecedented attacks, we did not waver," he said. He added that Bahrain has chosen to work more closely with its allies and partners to defend what it has built.
Sheikh Salman said the Gulf economy has grown to $2.4tn in GDP. Non-oil sectors account for more than 86% of Bahrain's GDP and more than 77% across the Gulf, he said.
He said Gulf banks hold more than $4tn in assets, while the region's sovereign wealth funds manage more than $5tn of investments. "These numbers describe a region that has chosen to build a more stable, a more prosperous future for its people," he said. "Bahrain is the gateway to that region."
The minister said Bahrain is focusing on regulation, infrastructure and people to attract investment.
He said the country has developed a regulatory framework over several decades that is "clear, modern and fast", allowing investors to commit with confidence.
On infrastructure, he highlighted logistics, connectivity, digital networks and industrial land as areas where Bahrain is building the foundations for businesses to expand. He also named finance, logistics, tourism, manufacturing, technology and telecommunications, and oil and gas as the sectors into which he expects domestic, regional and international capital to flow.
He said the investments will create jobs for young graduates and support the growth of family businesses.
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Egypt’s Petrojet wins gas pipeline project worth $170m2 November 2026

An onshore gas pipeline contract awarded to Egypt’s Petrojet has a value of $170m, according industry sources.
The pipeline will connect to Egypt’s Damietta liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal and is part of a broader project to develop gas reserves in Cyprus and export the gas using infrastructure in Egypt.
Recently, several contracts have been signed in relation to the project, which is being developed by Italian oil and gas company Eni.
These include US-based Baker Hughes signing a contract for the design, procurement and construction of subsea production systems, including associated equipment and control systems.
Italy's Dalmine will supply subsea gas export and monoethylene glycol pipelines, while US-listed TechnipFMC will design, procure and manufacture flexible gas production pipelines.
In September, it was announced that US-headquartered McDermott will carry out offshore work for the project, including the transportation, installation and connection of subsea pipelines and equipment.
In a statement released on 26 October, Eni said: “The development will leverage a fast-track approach based on regional integration and the use of existing infrastructure.
“Gas produced from Cronos will be transported to Egypt, where it will be processed through existing facilities, including the Zohr infrastructure, before being liquefied at the Damietta LNG plant for export to international markets, primarily Europe.”
Gas production is expected to come online in the first half of 2028.
Since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, sparking a regional conflict, there has been increased interest in oil and gas assets in North African countries such as Egypt.
The ongoing conflict has made exporting oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait more difficult due to attacks on shipping.
Unlike many Middle East nations, Egypt, Algeria and Libya do not need to use these export routes and can continue to ship oil and gas without disruption.
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GCC projects market holds its nerve1 November 2026

The war in the Gulf is now inflicting deep damage on the region’s economies. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts contraction in every GCC state except Oman in 2026. Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to shrink by 3.3%, after 4.6% growth in 2025, and the UAE’s by 3.9%, after 6.2% growth.
The IMF expects Kuwait’s economy to contract by 16.7%, Qatar’s by 15.6% and Bahrain’s by 11.3%, as energy and transport disruption cuts exports. Oman, with routes outside the Strait of Hormuz, is forecast to grow by 4.1%.The fund has cut its 2026 forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia by 2.2 percentage points since April, to a contraction of 0.3%, citing a longer closure of the strait than it had previously assumed. The revision for Saudi Arabia is 6.4 percentage points. The IMF now assumes the strait will reopen in March 2027, with a return to prewar conditions broadly by October 2027.
There is little sign of an early end to hostilities. On 10 October, a Houthi-attributed strike on a passenger terminal at Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport killed 12 people and injured 309, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation. Airport operations were suspended and several international airlines cancelled flights.
Yet the region’s projects market is holding up far better than its economies. Data from MEED Projects shows that contract awards in 2026 have proved resilient, with clients across the GCC continuing to commit capital to new schemes.
The GCC projects market has absorbed almost eight months of conflict better than its economies
Resilient awards
The UAE leads the regional market for a second consecutive year, with the value of contract awards 6.1% higher than in the same period of 2025. Oman and Kuwait are also running ahead of last year’s pace, despite the IMF’s forecast that Kuwait’s economy will contract by about a sixth.
Saudi Arabia has awarded $68.8bn of contracts so far this year, 13% less than in the same period of 2025. Given that the kingdom has been the main target of the Houthi campaign, and was already revising its spending priorities before the conflict, the decline is modest.
The comparison is against a high base. The past three years have seen unprecedented GCC capital expenditure, supported by higher oil prices, residential demand and national vision programmes. More than three quarters has been concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The gap between economic output and project spending reflects the nature of the projects market. Governments and state-linked entities can sustain capital budgets through a downturn using reserves and borrowing. GDP contraction, by contrast, reflects lost oil and gas exports, tourism and trade.
The UAE’s performance this year has been driven by the gas and transport sectors, which have recorded the strongest growth. Construction, the country’s largest sector, has declined as the real estate market has cooled.
Abu Dhabi has been the standout performer. Contract awards in the capital are up 35% on the same period of last year, with growth across the construction, gas, oil and transport sectors.
Public spending is a central reason for that resilience. Fitch Ratings expects Abu Dhabi’s spending to rise by 19% this year, equivalent to 3.7% of GDP, to support the non-oil economy. Data from the Central Bank of the UAE shows consolidated government capital expenditure rose to AED18.6bn ($5.1bn) in Q1 2026 from
AED2bn in Q1 2025.Fitch expects UAE infrastructure and government-related entity capital spending to rise significantly in 2026 and 2027, both to strengthen resilience against future conflicts and stimulate the economy. Emirates have already accelerated tendering on several projects.
Transport remains a priority. Plans include further sections of the national passenger rail network, a high-speed rail link between Dubai and Abu Dhabi, a light rail system in Abu Dhabi and the Dubai Metro Gold Line. The $35bn expansion of Al-Maktoum International airport in Dubai is moving towards delivery with the award of the first major construction packages.
Economic headwinds
Both the IMF and Fitch expect a strong rebound once the strait reopens. The IMF forecasts 2027 growth of 7.7% in the UAE, 7.9% in Saudi Arabia, 18.8% in Qatar and 17.1% in Kuwait. Fitch forecasts UAE non-oil growth of 6.1% next year. Paul Gamble, senior director at Fitch, cautioned that prolonged insecurity “will call into question logistical advantages” that underpin the UAE’s growth model.
Beneath the headline award totals, there are warning signs. Regional contract awards performed well between March and June, but the value of work awarded in recent months has dropped sharply compared with the same months of 2025. According to MEED Projects, the main cause is a fall in the number of tenders being issued, particularly in real estate.
The timing is significant. The strong period included the April ceasefire, when clients appear to have pressed ahead expecting a short conflict. Tendering slowed as hostilities resumed. In July, Iranian attacks reached Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman, while Houthi escalation against Saudi Arabia began.
The pattern suggests conflict fatigue may be setting in, with clients deferring projects amid a war with no clear end date. As tendering is a leading indicator, the impact on awards is likely to become more visible in coming months.
In Saudi Arabia, monthly performance has been mixed as the market adjusts to revised spending priorities and the regional conflict. Most sectors are up on last year, with the exception of power and water, which has struggled in 2026, possibly as a result of overbuilding in the past three years. The kingdom’s gigaprojects have continued their retreat. Awards peaked at $31.7bn in 2023 and fell to $14.4bn in 2025. The total so far in 2026 is $9.4bn, most of it for work at Qiddiya, Diriyah and Rua Al-Madinah.
The GCC has more than $3.4tn of known, planned and unawarded projects over the next 10 to 15 years
Dubai slowdown
The clearest signal of the conflict’s impact on the projects market comes from Dubai. The emirate’s market performed strongly until May. Since then, activity has been subdued, and contract awards for the year to date are 0.6% lower than in the same period of 2025.
The main cause is a decline in residential contract awards. Data from Bayut and the Dubai Land Department shows a marked fall in the value of off-plan sales since late February, when the war began. Residential construction awards have fallen in step, with no sign of the time lag that would normally be expected.
Third-quarter figures from Savills confirm the trend. Residential transactions fell 38% year on year to 34,500, and transaction value dropped 46% to AED70.8bn ($19.3bn) from AED132.2bn. The decline was concentrated in the off-plan segment, where value fell to AED45.7bn in Q3 from AED61.3bn in Q2, while ready-market value rose to AED25.1bn from AED21.3bn.
Developers have sharply reduced new launches. Savills recorded about 5,000 units launched in Q3, taking the total for the year to date to about 50,000, roughly 64% below the same period of 2025. Fewer launches mean fewer construction contracts, which explains why residential awards have fallen so quickly. More than 525,000 units are scheduled for delivery between 2027 and 2030, which Fitch says could add pressure to a sector accounting for 8% of non-oil GDP if population growth weakens.
Escaping Hormuz
The conflict is also generating new project demand. Saudi Arabia is prioritising ports and transport infrastructure on the Red Sea coast, along with new pipelines to the Red Sea and to Oman. The UAE is developing ports and transport links to the east coast and Oman, and additional pipelines to Fujairah. Fitch anticipates new and expanded road, rail, pipeline and port infrastructure in Oman and Saudi Arabia as GCC states seek routes that bypass the strait.
The IMF’s forecasts underline the value of those routes. It describes Saudi Arabia as “somewhat less affected” than its neighbours because of its more diversified export routes, while Oman is the only GCC state forecast to grow this year. Houthi strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu in September show that Red Sea infrastructure is not beyond reach, however. Defence spending is rising in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and repair and rehabilitation work will add to the pipeline once hostilities end.
The long-term fundamentals remain strong: the GCC has more than $3.4tn of known, planned and unawarded projects over the next 10 to 15 years, about half of it in Saudi Arabia. Many of the kingdom’s priorities are tied to fixed dates, with Riyadh hosting the World Expo in 2030 and Saudi Arabia hosting the Fifa World Cup in 2034.
The capacity to fund this pipeline depends on oil revenues. MEED’s assessment is that crude prices must remain above $70-$80 a barrel for spending levels to be maintained. With exports through Hormuz disrupted, the volume of oil Gulf producers can move to market matters as much as the price.
The GCC projects market has absorbed almost eight months of conflict better than its economies. The question for the final quarter is whether the slowdown in tendering is a temporary pause or the start of a sustained retreat. If the IMF’s assumption of a March 2027 reopening of the strait holds, clients will be setting their 2027 budgets with a rebound in sight. If it slips, the resilience of contract awards will face a sterner test.
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