Meed | US elections set to disappoint region

US elections set to disappoint region

22 January 2024

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.

Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.

But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.

A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.

Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.

The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.

As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.

Trump agenda

This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?

Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.

Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.

In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.

Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.

Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.

Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House

Regional letdown

Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.

Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.

For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.

His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk.

The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.

Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.

Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.

The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.

There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.

Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.

Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.

And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.

Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr

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Edmund O’Sullivan

Exclusive from Meed

Tender issued for Libyan gas project
17 September 2026
Aldar and Mubadala acquire Masdar City Square
17 September 2026
Dubai announces new 80km highway corridor
16 September 2026
Engineering progresses on Ras Laffan LNG terminal berths
16 September 2026
Design completed for Libyan oil field development
16 September 2026

Tender issued for Libyan gas project
17 September 2026
An invitation to bid has been issued for a contract to conduct environmental assessments for the project to expand the Mellitah oil and gas complex in Libya.

The bid submission deadline is 2pm today (17 September) Libyan time.

The scope of the project includes provision of:
- An environmental baseline study (EBS)
- An environmental impact assessment (EIA)
- An environmental management plan (EMP)
The client is Mellitah Oil & Gas (MOG), which is a joint venture of Italy’s Eni and Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC).

MOG is based in Tripoli and operates both onshore and offshore oil and gas facilities.

The joint venture owns and operates six major oil and gas fields across the North African country.

According to the tender documents, the company that is awarded the contract will need to prepare environmental management measures in compliance with:
- Libyan environmental legislation
- Ministry of Environment requirements
- NOC environmental guidelines
- Applicable international environmental standards and best practices
The expansion of the Mellitah oil and gas complex is part of a project estimated to be worth $8bn.

The wider project is known as the Mellitah Complex Expansion & CO2 Management Integrated Development Project.

It has six main packages:
- Onshore package
- Offshore Structure A
- Offshore Structure E
- Subsea pipeline package
- Site preparation work
- Carbon capture and storage facility
Security issues and political instability have been a major problem for Libya’s oil and gas sector since the country’s civil war started in 2011.

Earlier this month, the Mellitah oil and gas complex was forced to shut down temporarily due to a protest over deteriorating public services.

The existing onshore complex includes housing, processing units, storage facilities and export facilities.

It also serves as the launch point for the Greenstream pipeline, which delivers Libyan gas directly to Italy.

The planned expansion of the complex will involve:
- Construction of a new fourth gas processing train
- Construction of a third condensate train
- Construction of a third natural gas liquids fractionation train
- Construction of a fourth sulphur recovery unit train
- Installation of a hydrogen sulphide enrichment unit
- Installation of a sulphur recovery unit
- Construction of other associated facilities
The Mellitah complex is located about 100 kilometres west of Tripoli and is a key energy facility in the west of the country.
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Wil Crisp
Aldar and Mubadala acquire Masdar City Square
17 September 2026

Abu Dhabi-based sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Company and local developer Aldar have completed the acquisition of Masdar City Square at Masdar City, in a transaction valued at AED918m ($250m).

The deal was executed through their joint venture established in 2024.

Masdar City Square comprises more than 47,000 square metres (sq m) of net leasable area across seven office buildings.

Completed in Q1 2026, the development is 99% occupied. Tenants include Taqa, the Department of Energy, Emirates College and the Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence.

The transaction expands the joint venture’s real estate portfolio in Masdar City, which is now valued at AED4.7bn ($1.3bn).

Masdar City is one of the region’s leading hubs for clean energy, artificial intelligence, advanced research and sustainable urban development.

The joint venture acquired The Link project at Masdar City for AED654m ($178m) in April.

Comprising about 32,000 sq m of net leasable area across five buildings, The Link is fully leased to a portfolio of major tenants, including Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) and the Mohamed Bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence.

The asset includes Grade A, Leed Platinum office space, a net-zero-energy headquarters building, a multi-use hall and residential accommodation, supporting its position as a high-performing, integrated component of Masdar City.

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Yasir Iqbal
Dubai announces new 80km highway corridor
16 September 2026

Dubai has approved the construction of the new fourth corridor, a major highway programme aimed at boosting inter-emirate connectivity, increasing road capacity and easing congestion.

The corridor will extend 80 kilometres, from Al-Faya Road in Abu Dhabi to Al-Shanouf Road in Sharjah.

It will include 12 lanes, 72 bridges and 17 tunnels.

The project is expected to reduce travel times by up to 60% and serve more than 3.1 million people, while providing links to Al-Maktoum International airport and Etihad Rail.

It will have the capacity to accommodate 24,000 vehicles per hour in each direction.

The project will be delivered in two phases. The first phase, running from Al-Shanouf Road to Dubai-Al Ain Road, will be delivered at a cost of AED3.5bn ($953m).

The second phase will stretch from Dubai-Al Ain Road to Al-Faya Road in Abu Dhabi.

Hamdan bin Mohammed: In line with the directives of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum to boost investment in infrastructure, I approved the New Fourth Corridor to strengthen Dubai’s road network and enhance connectivity with the UAE’s federal road network.… pic.twitter.com/zlIyY2yKBN

— Dubai Media Office (@DXBMediaOffice) September 16, 2026

The scheme adds a fourth spine to a network that has long relied on three main corridors: the E11 (Sheikh Zayed Road/Al-Ittihad Road); the E311 (Sheikh Mohamed Bin Zayed Road) and the E611 (Emirates Road), which together carry more than 850,000 vehicles commuting between Dubai and the northern emirates daily.

That concentration has made the route one of the country’s most congested, with peak-hour bottlenecks a persistent problem for residents. The new corridor is designed to divert a significant share of that traffic onto a higher-capacity route, rather than add pressure to the existing network.

The project also aligns with the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, which anticipates population growth to 5.8 million by 2040 and calls for the expansion of roads, railways, airports and ports to support that growth and reinforce Dubai’s position as a global trading hub. This is reflected in the corridor’s direct links to Al-Maktoum International airport and Etihad Rail.

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Yasir Iqbal

Engineering progresses on Ras Laffan LNG terminal berths

16 September 2026

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Front-end engineering and design (feed) works are progressing on a QatarEnergy LNG project to build 13 liquefied natural gas (LNG) loading berths at the south export terminal in Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City.

Ras Laffan Industrial City, which lies about 90 kilometres north of Doha, is the world's largest integrated LNG production and export complex, comprising 15 processing trains with a total capacity of 77.5 million tonnes a year (t/y). QatarEnergy began LNG operations at the facility, which houses all its processing trains and export infrastructure, in 1984.

According to sources, QatarEnergy LNG, a subsidiary of state enterprise QatarEnergy, awarded the feed contract for the project to build 13 LNG berths at the south export terminal at Ras Laffan to Australia-headquartered Worley.

The contract was awarded to Worley in the second quarter of this year. Its duration is estimated to be 200,000-250,000 man hours, sources told MEED.

Ras Laffan’s LNG processing and export capabilities will increase by up to about 63% when the three phases of QatarEnergy’s estimated $40bn North Field LNG expansion project come into operation by the end of this decade. Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on all three projects are progressing.

QatarEnergy is understood to have committed nearly $30bn to the first two phases – North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) – which will lift Qatar’s LNG production capacity from 77.5 million t/y to 126 million t/y by 2028.

QatarEnergy awarded the main EPC contracts for NFE in 2021. The project was intended to raise LNG output to 110 million t/y by 2025. The $13bn EPC package – covering the engineering, procurement, construction and installation of four LNG trains, each with a capacity of 8 million t/y – was awarded in February 2021 to a consortium of Japan’s Chiyoda and France’s Technip Energies.

In May 2023, QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn main EPC contract for NFS to a consortium of Technip Energies and Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC). The contract includes two LNG trains, each with a capacity of 7.8 million t/y.

Once fully operational, the first two phases are expected to add 48 million t/y of LNG supply to the global market.

QatarEnergy took the final investment decision on the third phase, North Field West (NFW), this year, awarding an EPC contract estimated at $8bn to a joint venture comprising Technip Energies, CCC and Gulf Asia Contracting in February.

Chiyoda carried out the feed work for the NFW LNG project.

The NFW scope covers the EPC of two LNG trains with a combined capacity of 16 million t/y, as well as associated facilities for gas treatment, natural gas liquids recovery and helium extraction.

In addition to LNG, NFW is expected to produce about 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day of condensate, ethane and liquefied petroleum gas.

With all three phases under EPC execution – and NFE scheduled for commissioning later this year – QatarEnergy is positioning itself to remain one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers in the long term.

READ THE SEPTEMBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Nuclear power ambitions gather pace; Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive despite war; Region invests in raising gas processing capacity.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the September 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

> AGENDA: Gulf nuclear revival takes shape

> MARKET FOCUS: Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive under fire

> INDUSTRY REPORT: Gas processing takes centre stage in Mena region

> INTERVIEW: Emsteel persists with business productivity and efficiency

> TUNNELS: The Gulf’s next construction boom is happening underground

To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

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Indrajit Sen

Design completed for Libyan oil field development

16 September 2026

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Design work has been completed for a project to develop Libya’s I/R oil field, according to industry sources.

The front-end engineering and design work was completed by a team in the London offices of Italy’s EniProgetti and paves the way for the main engineering, procurement and construction contract to be tendered.

One source said: “At the moment, there is no fixed date for when the invitation to bid for the main contract will be issued, but the project has a lot of momentum and is progressing towards tendering.”

The I/R oil field is located in Murzuq Basin in southwestern Libya.

In June this year, Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) signed a unified operating agreement for the field.

The I/R field is operated by Akakus Oil Operations, which is a joint venture of NOC in partnership with Spain’s Repsol, France’s TotalEnergies Repsol, Austria’s OMV and Norway’s Equinor.

The agreement in June was signed by NOC as well as its concession partners.

NOC said the agreement would unify operational and administrative procedures related to field management, optimise resource utilisation and support production sustainability.