meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

US elections set to disappoint region

22 January 2024

 

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.

Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.

But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.

A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.

Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.

The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.

As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.

Trump agenda

This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?

Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.

Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.

In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.

Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.

Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.

Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House

Regional letdown

Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.

Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.

For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.

His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk. 

The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.

Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.

Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.

The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.

There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.

Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.

Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.

And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.

Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11452447/main.gif
Edmund O’Sullivan

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai inflation slows to 5.3% in July

    24 August 2026

    Dubai’s annual inflation rate slowed to 5.3% in July, down from 5.7% in June, as a decline in transport costs eased pressure on consumer prices, according to Emirates NBD.

    The bank said the slowdown supported its view that price growth peaked at mid-year, and it expects inflation to continue easing through the rest of 2026. Monthly price growth slowed to 0.1% in July, from 0.4% in June, the weakest pace since February.

    Transport was the clearest sign of the moderation. Annual price growth in the category slowed to 11.9% in July, from 18.1% in June, as transport costs fell 3.7% over the month. Fuel and lubricant inflation eased to 24.1% year on year, from 48.3%, tracking a decline in local petrol prices.

    Petrol remains the main swing factor in the emirate’s inflation. Transport contributed 1.1 percentage points to headline inflation in July, down from 1.7 percentage points in June. Emirates NBD said the relief may prove temporary, with Super 98 petrol prices climbing 5.9% in August to leave them 33.8% higher than a year earlier. The bank expects headline inflation to edge higher in the August figures before easing again later in the year.

    The UAE deregulated petrol and diesel prices in 2015 and reviews them monthly against global prices, meaning changes in global fuel costs pass through to consumers quickly. Transport, which includes fuel, accounts for 9% of Dubai’s consumer price index basket.

    Housing remained the largest contributor to inflation even as its impulse faded. Housing and utilities, which account for about two-fifths of the basket, added 2.8 percentage points to headline inflation. Annual price growth in the category slowed to 7.0%, from 7.4% in January.

    Food inflation edged up to 7.8% year on year, from 7.6% in June, which the bank attributed to lingering supply-chain disruption from the regional conflict. Inflation in restaurants and hotels accelerated to 4.5% year on year, from 1.7% in June.

    Emirates NBD forecasts inflation of 2.9% by year-end but said risks to that projection were tilted to the upside, given lingering pressures in food and housing.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18961735/main1839.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Libya oil project on track for 2027 completion

    24 August 2026

     

    The project to develop a workers’ camp at Libya’s Erawin oil field is on track for completion next year, according to industry sources.

    The project, estimated to be worth about $50m, is being executed by the Libyan oil services company Al-Saraya Al-Hamara, headquartered in the city of Sebha.

    The Libyan company was awarded the contract in February 2025.

    The scope of the project includes:

    • Construction of an accommodation camp
    • Construction of the camp maintenance warehouse
    • Construction of the camp office
    • Construction of a fire brigade shelter
    • Construction of a kitchen and mess hall
    • Construction of a mosque
    • Construction of a laundry room
    • Construction of a clinic
    • Construction of parking facilities
    • Installation of a fire and gas system
    • Installation of a power generator
    • Construction of associated facilities

    The client on the project is Zallaf Libya Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Company.

    Zallaf Libya Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Company was established in Libya in 2013 and is wholly owned by Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation.

    The Erawin field development project is located about 800 kilometres south of Tripoli and 100km southwest of the El-Sharara field.

    Libya shipped its first cargo of crude from the Erawin oil field in November 2023.

    The shipment departed from Libya’s Zawiyah port and consisted of 600,000 barrels of crude.

    Australia-based Worley Parsons was appointed as the front-end engineering and design (feed) contractor for the early production facility project in 2019.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18953632/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Tunisia extends bid deadline for gas pipeline project

    24 August 2026

    State-owned Tunisian Company of Electricity & Gas (Steg) has extended the bid deadline for a project to develop gas pipelines in the North African country.

    Earlier this year, the project was tendered with a bid deadline of 15 July. The new deadline is 30 September 2026.

    The scope of the project includes conducting studies, procuring equipment and materials, and performing construction work.

    Steg has received financing from the Islamic Development Bank to fund the project.

    The tender has been split into two packages.

    The first pipeline runs from the Tunisian town of Mourouj, in the suburbs of Tunis, to the town of Zriba.

    Along this route, the pipeline will be split into two sections.

    The first extends from Mourouj to the town of Fouchana, which lies to the south of the capital.

    Under existing plans, the pipeline will have a diameter of 20 inches and extend for 3.8 kilometres.

    The second section will extend for 43km to Zriba and have a diameter of 24 inches.

    The contract for package one has a 450-day completion period.

    The project’s second package focuses on a gas pipeline extending from Zriba to the town of M’saken.

    This pipeline will extend for 78km and have a diameter of 24 inches.

    The contract for this package also specifies a 450-day completion period.

    The procedure for the tender of both packages is an international call for tenders under the Islamic Development Bank guidelines for design, supply and installation.

    The Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region is currently seeing a surge in oil and gas pipeline projects as countries attempt to diversify routes through which hydrocarbons can be transported.

    The increased concerns about overreliance on a small number of transportation routes are a result of the regional conflict that started when the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.

    The conflict severely disrupted oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the importance of having a diverse range of import and export routes.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18953537/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Contractors confirm $683m Oman power plant contract

    21 August 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    China-headquartered Shandong Electric Power Construction No. 3 Company (Sepco 3) and South Korea’s Doosan Enerbility have confirmed their involvement as contractors on the 1,700MW Misfah combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) project in Oman.

    In a statement, Sepco 3 said it signed the contract on 20 August. On 21 August, Doosan disclosed a KRW930bn ($683m) contract with Jabel Power, the project company for the Misfah plant. The contract runs from 20 August 2026 to 1 April 2029.

    The same consortium signed the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for the 890MW Duqm CCGT power plant in June. At the time, Doosan disclosed a contract worth about $350m.

    In May, MEED exclusively reported that the group had been appointed as the main contractor for the two power plants, subject to the official signing.

    State offtaker Nama Power & Water Procurement (Nama PWP) had previously signed power-purchase agreements (PPAs) for the development and operation of the plants.

    The developer’s contract was awarded to a consortium comprising Korea Western Power (Kowepo), Qatar’s Nebras Power, the UAE’s Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) and Oman’s Bhawan Infrastructure Services.

    As MEED understands, construction works have already commenced on the power plant projects. A China-based procurement listing in June shows that civil works procurement was under way for the Misfah independent power producer (IPP).

    The civil package F tender covered piling, reinforcement cages, concrete works and pile testing, with work scheduled to start in July and finish by November

    As reported in July, Germany’s Siemens Energy will supply power generation technology and long-term service agreements for the Misfah and Duqm IPP projects.

    This includes the supply of six F-class gas turbines, six generators and 20-year long-term service agreements for the equipment.

    The Misfah IPP will be led by Nebras Power and located in Wilayat Bousher in Muscat Governorate. The Duqm IPP will be led by Kowepo and located in Wilayat Duqm in Al-Wusta Governorate.

    According to Nama PWP, the total investment for the two projects is estimated at approximately RO1bn ($2.6bn).

    Synergy Consulting is the financial adviser and lead adviser to Nama PWP for these projects.

    In November, Oman’s OQ Gas Networks received final investment approval to proceed with gas supply connections for the facilities.

    The Misfah IPP will receive 8.5 million cubic metres a day (cm/d) of natural gas. The Duqm IPP will be supplied with 4.5 million cm/d of natural gas.

    In March 2025, the same Sepco 3 and Doosan Enerbility consortium signed an EPC contract with Saudi Electricity Company to expand Riyadh Power Plant 12 (PP12). Located about 150 kilometres northwest of Riyadh, the 1,863MW power plant is expected to be completed in 2028.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18911106/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Adnoc plans new offshore-to-onshore oil transport pipeline

    20 August 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is moving ahead with an ambitious plan to build an oil pipeline network that will transport oil from its main offshore oil processing islands in the Gulf to its onshore crude export terminal in Jebel Dhanna, Abu Dhabi.

    The planned pipeline network will source crude from Zirku Island and Das Island, where Adnoc gathers and treats oil produced at Abu Dhabi’s offshore fields, among other processing hubs, and transport those volumes across 300 kilometres inland to the Jebel Dhanna terminal.

    According to sources, the proposed pipelines will eventually connect to the West-East crude pipeline network currently being built from Abu Dhabi’s Jebel Dhanna to the emirate of Fujairah, and is expected to be commissioned in 2027.

    The Abu Dhabi energy giant has awarded a contract for concept studies and front-end engineering and design (feed) to Abu Dhabi-based NT Energies, a joint venture of Abu Dhabi-based contractor NMDC Energy and France’s Technip Energies, sources told MEED.

    NT Energies is expected to carry out the concept studies and feed on a “fast-track basis”, with the work anticipated to take seven months, sources said.

    A kick-off meeting between the client and the appointed consultant took place on 6 July, sources added.

    Additionally, Adnoc has appointed Australia-headquartered Worley to provide project management consultancy (PMC) services, sources further said.

    West-East oil pipeline

    In May, Adnoc said it was accelerating work on the West-East crude transport pipeline project from Jebel Dhanna to Fujairah, upon directions from its board.

    The West-East pipeline project involves constructing a cross-country pipeline to transport crude from Adnoc’s export terminal at Jebel Dhanna to the Fujairah terminal, covering a distance of about 520km.

    The pipeline will double Adnoc’s crude export capacity through Fujairah on the Indian Ocean coast and enable shipments to bypass the geopolitically volatile Strait of Hormuz.

    Crude will be sourced from Adnoc’s offshore processing centres at Das, Zakum and Umm Lulu islands before being stored at new storage facilities to be built at the Jebel Dhanna terminal.

    The pipeline will be segmented into three sections:

    • Jebel Dhanna to Habshan main pumping station (MPS) – 115km
    • Habshan MPS to Sweihan depot – 254km
    • Sweihan depot to Fujairah terminal – 153km

    Adnoc awarded Egyptian contractor Engineering for Petroleum & Process Industries (Enppi) an engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCm) contract for the project in February 2024.

    Adnoc’s total spend on EPCm works could be as high as $3bn, MEED previously reported.

    Sources have told MEED that Adnoc has, in turn, appointed state-owned China Petroleum Pipeline (CPP) and locally based Bin Asheer to carry out construction works on the three segments of the West-East pipeline network.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18887774/main0639.jpg
    Indrajit Sen