US elections set to disappoint region

22 January 2024

 

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.

Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.

But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.

A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.

Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.

The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.

As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.

Trump agenda

This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?

Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.

Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.

In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.

Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.

Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.

Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House

Regional letdown

Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.

Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.

For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.

His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk. 

The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.

Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.

Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.

The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.

There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.

Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.

Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.

And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.


Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr

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Edmund O’Sullivan
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    MEED has been reporting since last March on KJO’s efforts to advance a project to produce gas from the Dorra offshore field, located in Gulf waters in the Neutral Zone shared by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

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    The tender’s broad scope involves providing PMC services for the EPC works for the Dorra gas facilities development project.

    KJO issued the tender for PMC services on 29 September last year, and engineering firms submitted bids on 19 January this year, MEED previously reported.

    In the months following bid submission, KJO held discussions with bidders on contract terms and pricing, sources said. The client ultimately decided to retender the PMC services contract with a revised scope of work.

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    “[For KJO], developing a gas field that lies in disputed waters with Iran seemed risky business at the time, and that explains the large part of the delay [in the PMC tendering process],” the source added.

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    • KBR (US)
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    • Wood (UK)
    • Worley (Australia)

    In addition to these bidders, firms that submitted proposals in the first tender round on 19 January included Saudi Arabia/UAE-based Kent and Spain’s Tecnicas Reunidas.

    Dorra offshore and onshore facilities

    KJO, meanwhile, is moving forward with the EPC tendering exercise for the main Dorra gas field facilities project. 

    Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH) has won package 1 of the Dorra facilities project, which covers the EPC of seven offshore jackets and the laying of intra-field pipelines. The contract is estimated to be worth between $140m and $150m, MEED reported last October.

    A consortium of Italian contractor Saipem and L&TEH is understood to have submitted the lowest bid for offshore packages 2A and 2B, MEED reported in March. The only other consortium said to have submitted bids for packages 2A and 2B comprises Abu Dhabi-based NMDC Energy and South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries.

    The EPC scope of work for package 2A includes Dorra gas field wellhead topsides, flowlines and umbilicals. Package 2B involves the central gathering platform complex, export pipelines and cables.

    Tecnicas Reunidas is understood to have emerged as the lowest bidder for onshore package 3, sources previously told MEED. Package 3 covers the EPC of onshore gas processing facilities.

    Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been pressing ahead with their plan to jointly produce 1 billion cubic feet a day of gas from the Dorra gas field.

    The two countries have been producing oil from the Neutral Zone – primarily from the onshore Wafra field and the offshore Khafji field – since at least the 1950s. With a growing need to increase natural gas production, they have been working to exploit the Dorra offshore field, understood to be the only gas field in the Neutral Zone.

    Discovered in 1965, the Dorra gas field is estimated to hold 20 trillion cubic metres of gas and 310 million barrels of oil.

    The Dorra facilities scheme is one of three multibillion-dollar projects launched by subsidiaries of Aramco and KPC to produce and process gas from the Dorra field that have advanced in the past few months.

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    31 July 2026

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    US-based Energy Recovery will operate the facility with a capacity to produce 2,000 devices a year. Production is scheduled to begin in the first quarter of 2027.

    SWA said the facility will be the first factory outside the US to manufacture the specialised equipment.

    Domestic demand in Saudi Arabia is estimated at 1,200 devices a year. About 40% of the factory’s production is expected to be supplied to markets in the GCC, Africa and Asia.

    Energy recovery devices improve the efficiency of desalination plants by recovering energy from the reverse-osmosis process, reducing power consumption and operating costs.

    SWA said local manufacturing will reduce dependence on imports, shorten supply times and improve the reliability of supply chains serving desalination plants.

    The authority estimates the market opportunity for the industry at more than SR547m ($146m). This includes about SR247m ($69.5m) in Saudi Arabia and SR300m ($80m) across the Middle East and North Africa.

    The project is expected to contribute about SR137m ($36.5m) to Saudi Arabia’s GDP by 2033. SWA expects localisation within the product’s value chain to exceed 80%.

    The project is also intended to support knowledge transfer and develop local capabilities in the manufacture of desalination technologies.

    SWA led efforts to establish the project in cooperation with Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Investment, Ministry of Industry & Mineral Resources and Local Content & Government Procurement Authority.


    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

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    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17853316/main.jpg
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