US elections set to disappoint region

22 January 2024

 

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.

Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.

But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.

A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.

Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.

The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.

As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.

Trump agenda

This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?

Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.

Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.

In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.

Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.

Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.

Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House

Regional letdown

Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.

Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.

For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.

His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk. 

The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.

Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.

Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.

The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.

There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.

Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.

Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.

And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.


Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11452447/main.gif
Edmund O’Sullivan
Related Articles
  • Bahrain’s willingness to disrupt takes flight with Air Asia

    14 November 2025

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    As the smallest economy in the GCC, Bahrain has long understood that its competitive edge lies in being agile and prepared to disrupt established economic models.

    This proactive approach began decades ago with the deregulation of its telecoms sector, positioning it ahead of many GCC peers in opening that market. More recently, the same strategic foresight emerged in the fintech space with the early adoption of regulatory sandboxes and a supportive digital finance ecosystem.

    Bahrain’s disruptive lens is now focused on the aviation sector. At the Gateway Gulf investor forum in Manama on 3 November, Bahrain signed a letter of intent with Malaysia-headquartered Capital A Berhad and Air Asia. The agreement covers the establishment of a hub in Bahrain as low-cost carrier Air Asia and its related businesses expand beyond Asia into new markets, including Europe and Africa.

    A hub in Bahrain, which is located to the west of its existing hubs in Asia, will allow Air Asia to connect to the European and African markets, allowing it to develop a network that will be a low-cost alternative to the full-service airlines based in the Gulf that also bridge east and west, including Bahrain’s flag carrier Gulf Air.

    Bahrain and Air Asia will not be competing on scale; instead, they will disrupt with lower prices. This agility will allow the kingdom to carve out a distinctive niche in an otherwise highly competitive market.

    The strategic pivot is made viable by recent, essential capital investment in aviation infrastructure. A new terminal building was opened at Bahrain International airport in 2022. This has significantly increased passenger capacity and modernised operations, creating an attractive platform for a major international low-cost carrier like Air Asia to base its extensive operations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15090817/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Firms interested in Qiddiya high-speed rail revealed

    14 November 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia's Royal Commission for Riyadh City, in collaboration with Qiddiya Investment Company and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, have received interest from over 145 local and international companies for a contract to develop the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.

    These include 68 contracting companies, 23 design and project management consultants, 16 investment firms, 12 rail operators, 10 rolling stock providers and 16 other services firms.

    The lead developers and contractors that have expressed interest are:

    • Afcons Contracting Company / Shapoorji Pallonji (India)
    • Al-Omaier Trading & Contracting (local)
    • Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company (local)
    • Al-Rawaf Contracting (local)
    • Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting Company (local)
    • AlBawani (local)
    • Al-Fahd Company (local)
    • Alghanim International (Kuwait)
    • Alkhorayef Water and Power Technologies (local)
    • Almabani General Contractors (local)
    • Amar (local)
    • Anjal Al-Khair Contracting (local)
    • Aviation Industry Corporation of China (China)
    • Bouygues Travaux Publics (France)
    • China Railway 18th Bureau Group (China)
    • China Harbour Engineering Company (China)
    • Built Industrial Company (local)
    • Cap France (France)
    • China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (China)
    • China Machinery Engineering Corporation (China)
    • China Railway Construction Corporation (China)
    • China Railway International Group Co (China)
    • Copasa (Spain)
    • Dineshchandra R. Agrawal Infracon (India)
    • Dogus Insaat (Turkiye)
    • EDECS Contracting (Egypt)
    • El-Seif Engineering Contracting (local)
    • El-Soadaa Group (Egypt)
    • ElSewedy Electric (Egypt)
    • Esnad Contracting (local)
    • FCC Construccion (Spain)
    • Freyssinet (France)
    • Global Construction Development Solutions Company (local)
    • Gulermak (Turkiye)
    • Hassan Allam Construction (Egypt)
    • Hyundai Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • IC Ictas (Turkiye)
    • Imathia Construccion (Spain)
    • Kalyon Insaat (Turkiye)
    • Kolin Construction (Turkiye)
    • Larsen & Toubro (India)
    • Makyol (Turkiye)
    • Mapa Group (Turkiye)
    • Marubeni (Japan)
    • Mofarreh AlHarbi & Partners (local)
    • Mota-Engil (Portugal)
    • Mubarak Abdullah AlSuwaiket & Sons (local)
    • Nesma & Partners (local)
    • Nesma Infrastructure & Technology (local)
    • Nurol Construction (Turkiye)
    • Orascom Construction (Egypt)
    • Saudi Pan Kingdom (local)
    • Redco International (Egypt)
    • Rio Contracting (local) (local)
    • Rowad Modern Engineering (Egypt)
    • Safari Company (local)
    • Saipem (Spain)
    • Salcef (Spain)
    • Samama (local)
    • Samsung C&T Corporation (South Korea)
    • Saraya Al-Andalus (local)
    • Syneox (Cobra) (Spain)
    • The Arab Contractors (Egypt)
    • Twaik Holding (local)
    • UCC Holding (Qatar)
    • Webuild (Italy)
    • Yapı Merkezi (Turkiye)

    Expressions of interest have also been submitted by the following design and project management consultants:

    • Aecom (US)
    • AtkinsRealis (Canada)
    • Ayesa Engineering (Spain)
    • CH2M (USA)
    • Contrax International (UAE)
    • El-Raeid Consulting Engineers (Egypt)
    • Gensler (US)
    • Geoharbour (China)
    • Hatch (Canada)
    • Hill International (US)
    • Idom (Spain)
    • Introsoft Solutions (India)
    • Italferr (Italy)
    • KL Consults Associates (Malaysia)
    • Kunhwa Engineering and Consulting Company (South Korea)
    • Marrs Global (UK)
    • One Works (Italy)
    • PPMDC (local)
    • Rina Services (Italy)
    • Sener (Spain)
    • Surbana Jurong (Singapore)
    • Systra (France)
    • Typsa (Spain)

    Equity investors that expressed interest in the Qiddiya high-speed rail project are:

    • Aberdeen Investcorp (Bahrain)
    • AlGihaz Holding (local)
    • Almutlaq Real Estate Investment Company (local)
    • Arj Holding (local)
    • Foure Holdings (US)
    • Itochu Corporation (Japan)
    • Korea Overseas Infrastructure & Urban Development Corporation (Kind; South Korea)
    • Lamar Holding (local)
    • Mada International Holding (local)
    • Meritz Financial Group (South Korea)
    • MXB Investment (local)
    • Plenary (Australia)
    • Sojitz (Japan)
    • Tamasuk (local)
    • Vinci Concessions (France)
    • Vision Invest (local)

    The rail operators that submitted expressions of interest are as follows:

    • Alsa Grupo (Spain)
    • Alsaif Transportation Company (local)
    • DB International Operations (Germany)
    • Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane (Italy)
    • Intertoll Europe (Hungary)
    • Keolis (France)
    • Moventis (Spain)
    • MTR Corporation (Hong Kong)
    • Ratp Dev (France)
    • Renfe Operadora (Spain)
    • Serco (UK)
    • Transdev (France)

    Interest in the project was also expressed by the following 10 rolling stock and systems suppliers:

    • Alstom (France)
    • CAF (Spain)
    • Colas Rail (France)
    • CRRC (Hong Kong)
    • CRRC Changchun Railway Vehicles (China)
    • Hitachi Rail (Japan)
    • Hyundai Rotem (South Korea)
    • Siemens (Germany)
    • Stadler Rail (Switzerland)
    • Talgo (Spain)

    And finally, the other service providers that expressed interest in the project are:

    • Al-Nasser (local)
    • Alutec (Qatar)
    • Alvarez & Marsal (US)
    • Comatec (Finland)
    • Concrete Technology Company (UAE)
    • Generale Costruzioni Ferroviarie (Italy)
    • Hogan Lovells (UK)
    • Indra (Spain)
    • Intellex Consulting Services (US)
    • International SOS (UK)
    • Najd Wire Industries Company (local)
    • Rawasi Albina (local)
    • Smart Directions (local)
    • STC (local)
    • Workforce Staffing Solutions (UAE)
    • Zebraware (UK)

    The firms submitted their expressions of interest on 12 October, as MEED reported.

    The clients issued the notice to the market in September.

    The Qiddiya high-speed rail project will connect King Salman International airport and King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) in Riyadh with Qiddiya City.

    Also known as Q-Express, the railway line will travel at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.

    The project was previously planned to be developed under a conventional model, but will now progress under a public-private partnership (PPP) model.

    The line is expected to be developed in two phases. The first phase will connect Qiddiya with KAFD and King Khalid International airport.

    The second phase will start from a development known as the North Pole – which is understood to include the Public Investment Fund’s proposed 2-kilometre-tall tower – and travel to the New Murabba development, King Salman Park, central Riyadh and Industrial City in the south of Riyadh. 

    In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project.

    UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser on the project. Latham & Watkins is the legal adviser.

    Qiddiya is one of Saudi Arabia’s five official gigaprojects and covers a total area of 376 square kilometres (sq km), with 223 sq km of developed land. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15090776/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Meraas awards $120m Citywalk expansion project deal

    14 November 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Local real estate developer Meraas has awarded a AED440m ($120m) contract for the construction of the Northline residential project in the Al-Wasl area of Dubai.

    The contract was awarded to the local GCC Contracting Company.

    The project includes the construction of three residential buildings. Construction works are expected to begin shortly and the project is slated for completion by 2027.

    The enabling works were undertaken by the local International Foundations Group.

    The project is part of the recently announced City Walk expansion project.

    In June, Merass announced the City Walk Crestlane project as it continued its expansion of the City Walk residential community.

    City Walk Crestlane comprises two residential towers offering 198 one- to five-bedroom units.

    The project is expected to be completed and handed over by the third quarter of 2028.

    Meraas’ latest project contract award in Dubai is backed by heightened real estate activity in the UAE’s construction market. Schemes worth over $323bn are in the execution or planning stages, according to UK analytics firm GlobalData.

    The company forecasts that the output of the UAE’s construction sector will grow by 4.2% in real terms in 2025, supported by developments in infrastructure, energy and utilities, as well as residential construction projects.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15090114/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractors prepare bids for Aramco gas compression project

    13 November 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Aramco is making progress with the main contract tendering process for a project to boost gas compression capacity at the Shedgum and Uthmaniya processing plants in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The Shedgum and Uthmaniya plants currently receive approximately 870 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) and 1.2 billion cf/d of Khuff raw gas, respectively.

    Through this multibillion-dollar project, Aramco aims to increase the compression and processing capacity of the two plants, as well as to construct new pipelines to enhance gas transport.

    Contractors are preparing bids for several engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) packages of the Shedgum and Uthmaniya gas compression capacity expansion project. Aramco has set a bid submission deadline of 17 November, according to sources.

    The Saudi energy giant is understood to have started the solicitation of interest process for the main EPC contract tendering exercise in the fourth quarter of last year.

    Aramco then issued the tenders for the EPC packages of the scheme during the second quarter of this year and set an initial bid submission deadline of 17 August, the sources said.

    In line with its aim of increasing gas production and processing capacity by 60% by 2030, with 2021 as its baseline, Aramco is investing significant capital in gas projects in the kingdom this year.

    Aramco’s capital expenditure (capex) in the third quarter of 2025 stood at $12.55bn, a marginal year-on-year increase of 2%. For the first nine months of the year, the firm registered capex of $37.41bn, an increase of 3.38% compared to the same period last year.

    The company previously announced capital investment guidance in the range of $52bn-$58bn for 2025, excluding around $4bn of project financing.

    ALSO READ: Aramco turns attention to strategic projects

    READ THE NOVEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Mena players up the ante in global LNG production race; Investment takes UAE non-oil economy from strength to strength; Project finance activity draws international lenders back to market

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the November 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15075053/main4642.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Aramco Stadium races towards completion

    12 November 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The Aramco Stadium in Khobar is moving forward at an impressive pace as the fast-track project races towards completion in 2026.

    The 47,000-seat stadium will be the new home for the Aramco-owned Al-Qadsiah Club and a key venue for the 2027 AFC Asian Cup and the 2034 Fifa World Cup. 

    The project’s progress stems from detailed planning and an accelerated delivery strategy. The project was conceived in May 2023, with the design process, managed by Aramco, commencing shortly thereafter. 

    “We completed the design within six months,” said Mohammed Subhi, the Aramco Stadium’s project manager.


    The project advanced quickly due to thorough planning and a fast-track delivery approach. Initiated in May 2023, the design phase—overseen by Aramco—was completed within six months


    An early engagement approach with the main contractor – a joint venture of Besix and Al-Bawani – was instrumental in maintaining momentum. This partnership began early in 2024, allowing for collaborative input on critical construction elements. 

    This upfront collaboration minimised pre-construction time, ensuring a rapid transition to site work.

    Engineering challenges

    The stadium’s architectural design, inspired by the natural whirlpools of the Gulf and featuring interwoven transparent sails, presents significant engineering challenges, particularly in the structural steel and façade work. For spectator comfort, the stadium is equipped with full cooling systems and designed to the highest international standards.

    Logistics management is another crucial facet of the project, which is located in central Khobar. With thousands of workers on site, the movement of materials is tightly controlled to minimise community disruption. 

    “We control how many trucks can enter the site and at what time. For example, we cannot cast concrete during the day. It has to be after 6pm, up until the early morning,” said Subhi.

    A key priority on site is health and safety, an area where the organisation’s legacy from its oil and gas operations is clearly visible. Subhi explains that the principle of health and safety is part of the company’s DNA and is embodied in the deployment of advanced technology and rigorous standards, which have collectively resulted in over 10 million safe working hours to date.

    The project employs a sophisticated Smart Safety Command Centre (SCC), which utilises artificial intelligence-based monitoring and 24/7 surveillance. One key feature of the centre is the crane collision prevention system – a key technological advancement in heavy machinery coordination and a first for the region. 

    “We have tower cranes and crawler cranes talking to each other. The anti-collision system means cranes talk to each other without human interference, and they automatically shut down when they are too close to each other,” said Subhi.


    A key technological advancement is the crane collision prevention system, which means the cranes talk to each other and shut down if they become too close


    In addition to ground operations, the project is leveraging aerial technology to mitigate risk in high-altitude work.

    “We have used drones for the inspection of the cranes and inspection of the steel structure itself to minimise the risk of working at height,” said Subhi.


    Drones have been adopted on-site to mitigate the risk of working at height


    Worker welfare

    The project’s commitment extends beyond mere regulatory compliance to comprehensive worker welfare, establishing a high standard for construction sites in the region. 

    With current staffing reaching approximately 11,000 direct and indirect workers, welfare provisions are a core priority, linking directly back to Aramco’s corporate standards.

    In a region where extreme heat is a constant challenge, the project has implemented advanced heat stress management protocols. This includes the installation of heat sensors with alarm systems, mandatory work stoppage during peak heat hours and regular briefings on heat exhaustion symptoms. Fully air-conditioned rest areas are provided for breaks and meals.

    Aramco is also committed to developing national talent. A significant proportion of the staff are young, and about 20% of the team are women.

    The relationship with the joint-venture contractor is defined by collaboration rather than traditional client-contractor hierarchy. “We are one team, working together,” said Subhi. This approach has fostered a cooperative environment that is accelerating the on-site progress towards the 2026 completion goal. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15073939/main.gif
    Colin Foreman