meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

US elections set to disappoint region

22 January 2024

 

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.

Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.

But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.

A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.

Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.

The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.

As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.

Trump agenda

This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?

Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.

Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.

In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.

Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.

Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.

Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House

Regional letdown

Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.

Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.

For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.

His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk. 

The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.

Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.

Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.

The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.

There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.

Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.

Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.

And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.

Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11452447/main.gif
Edmund O’Sullivan

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Contractors win deals for Saudi Energy transmission projects

    23 June 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia-based Haif Company has won contracts for two separate substation projects in Saudi Arabia, according to sources.

    The first involves the construction of a 132/33/13.8kV substation for Saudi Energy, formerly Saudi Electricity Company, which will replace the existing Tabuk substation 2 in Tabuk, northwestern Saudi Arabia.

    The works include the construction of a new substation, along with GIS, transformers, switchgear, capacitor banks, MV/LV cable systems and protection infrastructure.

    Ten firms submitted bids for the project last December. The bidders included:

    • Al-Babtain Contracting (Saudi Arabia)
    • Alfanar Projects (Saudi Arabia)
    • Al-Gihaz Holding (Saudi Arabia) 
    • Al-Osais International Holding (Saudi Arabia)
    • Danway Electrical & Mechanical Engineering (UAE)
    • Haif Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Mohammed Al-Ojaimi Group (Saudi Arabia)
    • Nesma Infrastructure & Technology (Saudi Arabia)
    • Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works (Saudi Arabia)
    • Tareg Al-Jaafari Contracting Est (Saudi Arabia)

    In addition to Tabuk, Saudi Energy is planning several power transmission projects in Al-Jouf, Medina and the Eastern Province as part of the kingdom’s push to upgrade its electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure

    The second Haif contract involves a 132/33kV substation project at Hail to support the integration of solar generation from the Al-Kahfah photovoltaic facility into the network. Together, the projects are valued at about $90m.

    Elsewhere, the local Trading & Development Partnership has been appointed to build a 132/33kV substation at Al-Jouf, in Al-Jouf Province.

    The facility will deliver a transmission capacity of about 168 MVA to the Al-Busitaa agricultural site, supporting the Liquid Fuel Displacement Programme, which aims to reduce reliance on diesel generators and fuel oil for power generation.

    Nine bids were submitted for the project last year.

    According to MEED Projects, Saudi Energy has almost $2.3bn-worth of projects currently under bid evaluation, including the 500kV overhead transmission line, approximately 466km long, for the Eastern Operating Area and the Central Operating Area in the Eastern Province. The main contract is expected to be awarded later in 2026.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17397346/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Morocco approves Khalladi wind farm expansion

    23 June 2026

    Acwa Maroc, a subsidiary of Saudi developer Acwa, has secured approval to expand the Khalladi wind independent power project (IPP) in northern Morocco by 40MW.

    The extension will increase the project’s total installed capacity from 120MW to 160MW. The Khalladi wind farm is located at Djebel Sendouq, about 50 kilometres from Tangier. The existing facility comprises 40 wind turbines rated at 3MW each.

    The project operates under Morocco’s Law 13.09 renewable energy framework, which allows private renewable energy firms to develop generation assets and supply electricity directly to industrial consumers.

    According to Acwa’s website, the facility entered commercial operation in 2018 and supplies electricity to Morocco’s state-owned utility Onee and large industrial customers under a 20-year power-purchase agreement.

    Acwa holds a 51% stake in the project alongside Participation Khalladi SA (24%) and ARIF North Africa Investment SARL, an infrastructure investment fund managed by France’s Amundi (25%).

    The engineering, procurement and construction contract was executed by Denmark’s Vestas, France’s Cegelec and Morocco’s Stam and AGTT.

    Morocco is targeting renewables to account for 52% of its installed power generation capacity by 2030.

    The operational wind farm generates about 397GWh of electricity a year. It is understood that the expansion project has already entered the development phase.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17394999/main5046.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Libya plans to distribute oil budget in July

    23 June 2026

     

    Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) has communicated to contractors in the country that it is expecting funds from the country’s budget to be distributed to state-owned oil companies in July, according to industry sources.

    Earlier this year, the country’s rival legislative bodies approved a unified state budget for the first time in more than 13 years.

    The Central Bank of Libya confirmed on 11 April that both chambers had endorsed the budget, calling it a key step towards restoring financial stability after prolonged division.

    The total budget was valued at LD190bn ($29.95bn), and LD12bn ($1.9bn) was allocated to the country’s NOC.

    An additional LD40bn ($6.3bn) was allocated for “development projects”.

    At the time, Libya stated that a joint committee had been formed to help prioritise development projects, and the projects had been listed in the budget.

    Over the past decade, the country has had two rival governments; the last time the country operated under a single national budget was in 2013.

    The country’s two legislatures are the eastern-based House of Representatives and the Tripoli-based High Council of State.

    As a result of the US and Israel’s war with Israel, there has been significant disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally transports around 20% of the world’s oil and gas exports.

    This has driven global energy prices higher, with Brent hitting more than $114 a barrel in May this year.

    The price of Brent remains 10% higher than prior to the US and Israel attacking Iran on 28 February.

    Libya is well-positioned to capitalise on the ongoing uncertainty around exports via the Strait of Hormuz, as energy-importing nations seek reliable oil and gas supplies.

    The North African country is located near Europe, with several large oil and gas export ports and a pipeline that transports gas to Italy.

    Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa, but has struggled to implement projects to develop them over recent years due to political infighting and security problems.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17389246/main2010.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Contractors prepare bids for Jafurah fifth expansion phase

    23 June 2026

     

    Contractors are preparing to submit bids to Saudi Aramco for a major project representing the fifth expansion phase of the Jafurah unconventional gas development programme in Saudi Arabia.

    The main scope of work on the Jafurah fifth expansion phase project involves the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of three gas compression plants at the giant gas basin in the kingdom’s Eastern Province. Each plant will be capable of processing up to 200 million cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Aramco is said to have issued the main EPC tender for the project during the first quarter of the year. The current deadline for contractors to submit bids is 12 July, according to sources.

    Aramco issued a solicitation of interest (SoI) for the Jafurah fifth expansion phase project in mid-November, with contractors submitting responses by 30 November, MEED previously reported.

    UK-headquartered Wood Group has carried out the front-end engineering and design (feed) for the Jafurah fifth expansion phase project.

    The Jafurah basin is the largest liquid-rich shale gas play in the Middle East, spanning around 17,000 square kilometres. The reserve is estimated to contain 229 trillion cubic feet of gas and 75 billion stock-tank barrels of condensate.

    Aramco recently brought the greenfield Jafurah gas processing plant online, with a production capacity of 450 million cf/d, marking the commissioning of the first phase of its $100bn capital expenditure programme to produce gas from the unconventional resource base.

    The Saudi energy giant had earlier stated it expected to start gas production at Jafurah in 2025, with the intention of progressively ramping up to 2 billion cf/d of sales gas, 420 million cf/d of ethane and 630,000 barrels a day (b/d) of high-value liquids by 2030.

    Aramco has said that its unconventional gas programme, at peak production, is expected to generate electricity equivalent to displacing 500,000 b/d of oil.

    Jafurah gas development phases

    Along with overseeing the main tending exercise for EPC works on the fifth expansion phase project at Jafurah, Aramco also recently kicked off EPC works on the fourth expansion phase.

    MEED reported in April that Aramco had selected Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (L&TEH) as the main contractor for the Jafurah fourth expansion phase, which sources estimate could be valued at around $1.5bn.

    The main scope of work on the Jafurah fourth expansion phase project involves the EPC of two gas compression trains at the giant gas basin in the kingdom’s Eastern Province. Each plant will be able to process up to 200 million cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Aramco has, however, only issued a draft letter of award for the project to L&TEH, based on which the contractor has started EPC works. The official contract award and final investment decision (FID) are pending, according to sources.

    Progress on the fourth and fifth expansion phases of the Jafurah unconventional gas development programme continues, as EPC work on the third phase advances.

    In July 2024, Aramco issued a non-binding letter of intent to a consortium of Tecnicas Reunidas and Sinopec Group for the EPC contract for the Jafurah third expansion phase. The value of the contract is estimated to be $2.24bn.

    The objective of the third expansion phase of Jafurah is similar to that of the fourth phase of development. The main scope of work involves the EPC of three gas compression plants, each with a capacity of 200 million cf/d.

    The third phase’s scope of work also includes building a 230kV substation to power the new gas compression plants and installing other utilities units, piping systems and safety equipment.

    The selection of contractors for the third expansion phase of the Jafurah development came within weeks of Aramco officially awarding EPC contracts for the second expansion phase, which aims to raise its processing potential to up to 2 billion cf/d of raw gas produced from the Jafurah field.

    Aramco awarded 16 contracts, worth a combined total of about $12.4bn, for the second expansion phase on 30 June 2024.

    The EPC scope of work on the project involves the construction of gas compression facilities and associated pipelines and the expansion of the Jafurah gas plant, including the construction of gas processing trains, utilities, sulphur and export facilities, Aramco said in a statement.

    The main EPC packages of the Jafurah second expansion phase project, their estimated values and the selected contractors are:

    • Package 1 – gas processing plant and main process units – $2.9bn: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • Package 2 – utilities and offsites – $2.4bn: Hyundai Engineering (South Korea)
    • Package 3 – gas compression units – $1bn: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon
    • Riyas natural gas liquids (NGL) package 1 – NGL fractionation trains – $1bn: Tecnicas Reunidas / Refining & Chemical Engineering Group (part of China’s Sinopec Group)
    • Riyas NGL package 2 – utilities, storage and export facilities – $2.2bn: Tecnicas Reunidas/Refining & Chemical Engineering Group
    • Riyas NGL package 6 – site preparation works – $107m: Mofarreh Alharbi & Partners (Saudi Arabia)
    • Riyas NGL package 9 – temporary construction facilities – $80m: Mofarreh Alharbi & Partners

    Aramco kickstarted EPC works on the first phase of the programme in November 2021 by awarding $10bn-worth of subsurface and EPC contracts.

    In February 2020, Aramco received a capital expenditure grant of $110bn from the Saudi government for the long-term phased development of the Jafurah unconventional gas resource base.

    The Jafurah unconventional gas development programme is central to Aramco’s goal of increasing gas production capacity. The target has recently been raised to 80%, with 2021 as the baseline, up from 60%, to meet rising domestic and global demand. The company expects life-cycle investment in Jafurah to exceed $100bn.

    Prior to the commissioning of the Jafurah gas plant in the last quarter of this year, Aramco completed an $11bn lease-and-leaseback deal in late October for gas processing facilities at the Jafurah unconventional gas reserve with a consortium led by funds managed by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), part of US asset manager BlackRock.

    Under the transaction, which Aramco started in August, a newly formed subsidiary – Jafurah Midstream Gas Company (JMGC) – will lease development and usage rights to the Jafurah field gas processing plant and the Riyas natural gas liquids (NGL) fractionation facility.

    After 20 years, JMGC will lease the assets back to Aramco. JMGC will collect a tariff payable by Aramco in exchange for granting Aramco the exclusive right to receive, process and treat raw gas from the Jafurah resource base.

    Aramco will hold a 51% majority stake in JMGC, while the GIP-led consortium will hold the remaining 49%. Investors participating in the GIP-led consortium include Hassana Investment Company, The Arab Energy Fund (TAEF) and Aberdeen Investcorp Infrastructure Partners, as well as other institutional investors from North and Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17385386/main5205.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Egypt approves plans for 869MW wind power plant

    22 June 2026

    Egypt’s Cabinet has approved plans for French renewable energy developer Voltalia to develop an 869MW wind power project.

    The scheme will be built on land allocated by the New & Renewable Energy Authority (NREA), according to a statement posted by the Cabinet following its most recent weekly meeting.

    Voltalia will make an initial investment of $53m and has committed to achieving commercial operations by December 2028.

    Voltalia already operates the 32MW Ra solar plant at the Benban solar complex in Aswan and is expanding its renewable energy portfolio in Egypt.

    Previously, in 2024, it signed a framework agreement with Egypt’s Taqa Arabia to develop a green hydrogen and renewable power cluster near the Ain Sokhna port in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

    The green hydrogen development is planned in two phases, each centred on a 500MW electrolyser powered by more than 1.3GW of renewable generation capacity. The project, still in its early stages, is expected to produce up to 350,000 tonnes of green ammonia a year.

    Voltalia’s partnership with Taqa Arabia also includes plans for a 3.2GW hybrid wind and solar project to repower the existing 545MW Zafarana wind farm in Suez Governorate. The Cabinet statement did not indicate whether the newly approved 869MW wind project forms part of that proposal.

    Meanwhile, the developer won another contract, earlier this year, to develop a 132MW solar power project in Tunisia’s Gabes region.

    The project, known as Wadi, marked Voltalia’s third major solar award in the country after the Sagdoud and Menzel Habib projects awarded in 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17376730/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall