US elections set to disappoint region
22 January 2024

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.
Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.
But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.
A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.
Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.
The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.
As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.
Trump agenda
This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?
Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.
Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.
In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.
Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.
Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.
Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House
Regional letdown
Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.
Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.
For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.
His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk.
The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.
Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.
Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.
The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.
There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.
Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.
Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.
And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.
Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr
Exclusive from Meed
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Saudi Arabia approves new procurement law17 August 2026
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GCC reviews first phase of water interconnection study17 August 2026
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Neom’s next phase is crucial to green hydrogen pipeline17 August 2026
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Five bid for King Salman Bay construction work17 August 2026
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PDO allows more time for Al-Ghubar field project prices17 August 2026
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Saudi Arabia approves new procurement law17 August 2026
Saudi Arabia’s Council of Ministers has approved a new Government Tenders and Procurement Law (GTPL), introducing changes to public procurement procedures and government contracting.
The Ministry of Finance announced the approval on 5 August.
The new law aims to strengthen governance and transparency, improve procurement planning and implementation, and promote fairness and equal opportunities in government contracting.
The changes give government entities greater flexibility in procurement while introducing new provisions that could affect contractors and suppliers, including contract variations, outstanding payments and procurement procedures.
Contract flexibility
According to a Ministry of Finance summary of the key amendments, one of the main changes allows government entities to increase existing contract items by up to 20% of the contract value. Contractor approval is required for increases exceeding 10%, while the total increase from adding new items or increasing existing items cannot exceed 20% of the contract value.
The amendments also introduce measures addressing outstanding payments to contractors. A government entity cannot make a new award when it has outstanding amounts owed to contractors for works or procurement and the required procedures have not been taken, after notification from the Ministry of Finance.
Exceptions apply where non-payment relates to ministry procedures or where the government entity has taken the required action on a claim but does not have sufficient budget allocations.
Single committee
Under the new law, the committees responsible for opening and examining bids will be merged into a single committee.
The maximum value for direct procurement will rise from SR100,000 ($26,700) to SR1m ($267,000) while government entities will be required to explain and document their use of direct procurement.
Direct procurement will also be permitted in cases involving research, development and innovation and certain contracts with professional practitioners.
The amendments reduce the minimum standstill period following a procurement award from five working days to three working days. Government entities will also be able to negotiate where the best bid exceeds the estimated cost plus the permitted contingency.
Localisation
The new framework includes provisions covering industrial localisation and knowledge transfer. The Ministry of Finance said it will issue rules for contracting for these purposes in cooperation with the Local Content and Government Procurement Authority.
A new regulation will also cover research, development and innovation, including tendering and contracting provisions for these activities.
Other changes involve contractors’ exposure to penalties. The maximum delay penalty on contracts, excluding supply contracts, will fall from 20% to 15% of contract value. The maximum penalty for non-performance in continuous-performance contracts will also fall from 20% to 15%.
The value of purchases exempt from providing a final guarantee will rise from SR100,000 ($26,700) to SR300,000 ($80,000). Additional exemptions will apply to contracts with professional practitioners and emergency or urgent cases.
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GCC reviews first phase of water interconnection study17 August 2026
The GCC General Secretariat has completed the first phase of a study examining the feasibility of developing water interconnection projects between GCC member states.
A two-day workshop reviewing the study’s findings concluded on 12 August at the headquarters of the GCC Interconnection Authority (GCCIA) in Dammam, Saudi Arabia.
The GCC General Secretariat organised the workshop in cooperation with GCCIA, with representatives from relevant authorities and experts in water, infrastructure and water security taking part.
Participants reviewed the first phase findings, including an assessment of existing water supply infrastructure and the actual water needs of GCC member states. They also discussed the technical requirements and data needed to complete the study.
The study is intended to identify practical options and feasible solutions for developing a regional water interconnection network. This includes establishing an implementation roadmap.
The initiative aims to improve the GCC states’ ability to respond to emergencies and crises and support continuity of water supplies.
First meeting
The workshop followed a virtual meeting on 22 July between the GCC General Secretariat and Saudi Arabia’s water authorities as part of the study.
That meeting, which also involved consultancy Artelia, reviewed the study’s methodology and implementation stages. These include assessing existing water systems across GCC states, their resilience and emergency readiness, and developing technical options for bilateral water interconnection projects.
In Saudi Arabia, the study is focused primarily on the Eastern Province and Riyadh. It is assessing water production and desalination facilities, transmission pipelines, strategic reservoirs, pumping stations and existing and planned projects.
The study is also examining potential bilateral connections between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, as well as the possibility of a connection with the UAE.
The 22 July meeting also discussed potential connection points and routes, water flow directions and the possibility of designing interconnection pipelines to operate in both directions.
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Neom’s next phase is crucial to green hydrogen pipeline17 August 2026
Commentary
Mark Dowdall
Power & water editorThe completion of construction at Neom Green Hydrogen comes at an important point for Saudi Arabia’s wider hydrogen ambitions.
The project has already shown that a large green hydrogen scheme can secure financing by reaching financial close in 2023 with long-term offtake from Air Products.
With the facility now moving into commissioning ahead of a targeted commercial operations date next year, Neom could soon give lenders and developers real evidence on the performance, costs and risks of a large-scale green hydrogen project.
That could be important for projects still moving through development. Acwa’s Yanbu Green Hydrogen Hub, for example, is targeting commercial operations in 2030.
The project has brought in Germany’s EnBW as a co-developer and minority investor and Japan’s Itochu as a co-developer, investor and offtaker. Acwa is targeting production of 2.5 million tonnes a year of green ammonia from the hub.
Saudi Arabia is also putting more of the framework around the industry in place. In July, the government granted Acwa exclusive rights to export green hydrogen produced in the kingdom along with its derivatives, including green ammonia, methanol and fuels.
However, partnerships and policy support alone will not remove the commercial questions facing projects. Yanbu still needs to progress through development and secure the financing needed to move into construction.
Neom’s financing structure and 30-year offtake may be specific to the project, but its operating performance should give future developers and lenders a clearer reference point for assessing production, reliability and costs.
While Neom will not make the next projects bankable on its own, if it stays on track and performs as expected, it could give lenders a stronger basis for assessing projects that follow. In the long-run, this could be one of its most important contributions.
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Five bid for King Salman Bay construction work17 August 2026

Five teams have submitted bids for the contract covering the marine infrastructure works at King Salman Bay on the Red Sea coast, north of Jeddah.
MEED understands that the bids were submitted on 31 July.
The bidders include:
- Deme / Archirodon (Belgium/Netherlands)
- Van Oord (Netherlands)
- Abdulmohsen Altamimi / NMDC Group (local/UAE)
- Urbacon / Negida Contracting (Qatar/Egypt )
- Modern Building Leaders / China Harbour (local/China)
The scope includes dredging and earthworks, as well as quay wall and edge protection works spanning about 11 kilometres.
King Salman Bay is expected to be a waterfront development that aims to reshape the city’s northern Red Sea frontage into a mixed-use destination, anchored by public-realm improvements and leisure-led development.
Saudi gigaproject developer Red Sea Global (RSG) is developing the project.
The latest development follows RSG’s award of an estimated SR100m ($27m) contract to construct a solid waste management centre at its Red Sea Project. The scope includes four buildings: a materials recycling facility, a transfer station, an administration building and a vehicle maintenance building.
In October last year, MEED reported that RSG had secured a SR6.5bn ($1.7bn) credit facility to further develop Amaala, its luxury tourism destination on Saudi Arabia’s northwestern Red Sea coast.
READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFSaudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> WORLD CUP: What the 2026 World Cup means for Saudi Arabia 2034> MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge> INDUSTRY REPORT: GCC banks prove resilient amid turmoil> LEADERSHIP: Private capital and the GCC infrastructure inflection> INTERVIEW: Developers look beyond standalone solarTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18800910/main.jpg -
PDO allows more time for Al-Ghubar field project prices17 August 2026

Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) has allowed contractors additional time to prepare commercial bids for a project to build a new facility to handle additional oil production from the Al-Ghubar field in the sultanate.
The Al-Ghubar field is located in the Ghaba Salt Basin at Qarn Alam, within majority state-owned PDO’s Block 6 concession area.
The Al-Ghubar gas-oil gravity drainage (GOGD) facility will be designed as a sour (hydrogen sulphide) facility and is expected to handle maximum oil production of 1,800 standard cubic metres a day (cm/d), a maximum total water flow rate of 10,421 standard cm/d, and maximum gas lift of 256,934 standard cm/d. Production from the planned Al-Ghubar GOGD facility will be exported to PDO’s main oil line.
Following receipt of the technical bids for the project in July, PDO granted contractors additional time – until 16 August – to submit commercial bids for the project, MEED recently reported.
The project operator has now extended the deadline for submitting commercial bids to 1 September, sources told MEED.
PDO floated the tender for the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project in March, setting an initial bid submission deadline of 4 May, MEED previously reported.
PDO later extended the deadlines for submission of technical and commercial bids to 26 July and 7 August, respectively. Contractors submitted technical proposals by the revised deadline, according to sources.
The following contractors, among others, are understood to be bidding for the project:
- Archirodon (Greece)
- Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (Egypt) / Petrojet (Egypt)
- Jereh (China)
- Kent (UAE)
- Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
The scope of work on the Al-Ghubar GOGD facility project covers the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) of the following:
- On-plot scope consists of:
- Production separator
- Test separator
- Concentric wash tank
- Wet oil pump
- Water bath heater
- Surge tank
- Gas injection/gas lift compressor (centrifugal)
- Utilities (Instrument Air compressors, chemical injection skids, drain system, vent system)
- Suction scrubber
- Air coolers
- Discharge scrubbers
- Condensate flash drum
- Atmospheric pressure knock-out drum
- Flare system
- Gas heater
- Water disposal pump
- Oil shipping pump
- New 132kV substation and plant substation (housing 6.6kV & 415-Volt switchboard)
- New control room
- Off-plot scope consists of:
- Off-plot pipeline network (bulk header, test header, gathering infrastructure/ gathering line header, instrument air header, water disposal header)
- Two remote manifold stations
- Tie-in connection to main oil line
- Tie-in to gas network pipeline
PDO previously intended to tender the Al-Ghubar GOGD project under its framework structure with selected EPC contractors, but eventually tendered it separately.
PDO is the operator of the Block 6 hydrocarbons concession in Oman, which is the sultanate’s largest and most prolific concession. Situated onshore and covering an area of 75,119 square kilometres, Block 6 contains 202 oil fields and 43 gas fields, with PDO producing a total of approximately 680,000 barrels a day (b/d) of oil and condensates from those fields.
The Omani government holds a 60% stake in PDO through Energy Development Oman (EDO). The other shareholders are UK-based Shell (34%), France’s TotalEnergies (4%) and Thailand’s state-owned PTTEP (2%).
ALSO READ: PDO floats tender for major flare gas monetisation scheme
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