meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

US elections set to disappoint region

22 January 2024

 

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.

Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.

But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.

A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.

Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.

The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.

As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.

Trump agenda

This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?

Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.

Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.

In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.

Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.

Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.

Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House

Regional letdown

Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.

Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.

For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.

His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk. 

The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.

Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.

Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.

The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.

There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.

Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.

Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.

And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.

Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11452447/main.gif
Edmund O’Sullivan

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Morocco plans second high-speed rail phase to Agadir

    26 October 2026

    Morocco has outlined a second rail investment cycle for 2030-35, which includes beginning construction of a high-speed rail extension from Marrakech to Agadir and connecting Essaouira to the national rail network.

    The pipeline forms part of the government’s 2026-31 programme, presented to parliament last week.

    The Marrakech-Agadir link is estimated to cost close to MD55bn ($5.5bn) and will cover a 240-kilometre (km) route through the High Atlas Mountains via Chichaoua. Civil engineering structures, including tunnels and viaducts, are expected to account for nearly 70% of the alignment.

    In September, the government issued a decree declaring the Marrakech-Agadir and Chichaoua-Essaouira rail corridors to be of public utility, paving the way for land acquisition and expropriation procedures.

    Under the long-term masterplan Plan Rail Maroc 2040, Essaouira is expected to connect to the network via a separate line branching off at Chichaoua, designed for operating speeds of up to 200km an hour. The mainline to Agadir is designed for speeds of up to 320km/h.

    The 2030-35 cycle also includes rehabilitating the Casablanca-Khouribga-Oued Zem line; constructing a new line between Oued Zem and Beni Mellal via Bejaad, with a branch to Fquih Ben Salah; doubling and upgrading the 140km Benguerir-Safi line; expanding capacity on the Fez-Oujda corridor; and building new-generation passenger stations.

    The plans follow Morocco’s ongoing MD134bn ($13.4bn) 2024-30 rail investment programme, which focuses on completing the Kenitra-Marrakech high-speed line ahead of the 2030 Fifa World Cup.

    The programme also includes developing regional express network services across five regions, electrifying the Fez-Oujda line and completing a freight rail link to the Nador West Med port.

    Work on the Kenitra-Marrakech line had reached about 30% by May 2026, with commercial services targeted to begin in September 2029.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20920349/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Riyadh tenders King Salman Stadium works

    26 October 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Sports Ministry has tendered a contract covering early works at King Salman International Stadium in Riyadh.

    The scope includes enabling works, site preparation and initial construction activities.

    The tender was issued on 11 October, with a submission deadline of 19 November.

    The stadium will cover about 660,000 square metres (sq m) and seat 92,000. Facilities will include a 150-seat royal suite, 120 hospitality suites, 300 VIP seats and 2,200 dignitary seats.

    The wider development will include sports facilities covering more than 360,000 sq m, including two training fields and fan zones; a closed sports hall; an Olympic-sized swimming pool; an athletics track; and outdoor courts for volleyball, basketball and padel.

    The stadium is set to host the final of the 2034 Fifa World Cup and will serve as the Saudi national football team’s main base.

    US-based architectural firm Populous is the lead architect for the stadium.

    Construction of the stadium is expected to be completed by 2029.

    The stadium will be located next to King Abdulaziz Park.

    Firms submitted prequalification statements for the main design-and-build contract in February.

    Saudi stadium plans

    In August 2024, MEED reported that Saudi Arabia planned to build 11 new stadiums and refurbish four facilities for the 2034 Fifa World Cup. 

    Eight stadiums will be located in Riyadh, four in Jeddah and one each in Al-Khobar, Abha and Neom.

    A further 10 cities will host training bases: Al-Baha, Jazan, Taif, Medina, Alula, Umluj, Tabuk, Hail, Al-Ahsa and Buraidah.

    There are expected to be 134 training sites in the kingdom, including 61 existing facilities and 73 new venues.

    Saudi Arabia was officially selected to host the 2034 Fifa World Cup during an online convention of Fifa member associations at the Fifa Congress on 11 December 2024.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20919233/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Aramco selects contractors for five offshore tenders

    23 October 2026

     

    Saudi Aramco has selected contractors for five offshore tenders covering the engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) of structures at the Abu Safah, Berri, Manifa, Marjan, Safaniya and Zuluf offshore oil and gas fields in Saudi Arabia.

    The tenders are numbers 167, 168, 169, 170 and 171 on Aramco’s Contract Release and Purchase Order (CRPO) system, and are estimated to be worth up to $2bn combined.

    Abu Dhabi government-owned NMDC Energy has won CRPOs 167, 169 and 171, while Italian contractor Saipem has secured CRPOs 168 and 170, according to sources.

    NMDC Energy confirmed its contract awards from Aramco in a disclosure to the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange on 23 October, saying the three contracts are valued at AED2.8bn ($763.3m).

    Work on the contracts is expected to be completed in 18-23 months, NMDC Energy said in its filing, without providing further details.

    Saipem has yet to confirm its contract awards from Aramco.

    The basic scope of EPCI work on the tenders is as follows:

    • CRPO 167 – eight jackets at the Marjan field development
    • CRPO 168 – four production deck modules (PDMs) at the Abu Safah, Berri, Manifa and Safaniya fields
    • CRPO 169 – three PDMs at the Marjan field development
    • CRPO 170 – three PDMs at the Marjan field development
    • CRPO 171 – three PDMs at the Zuluf field development

    Aramco issued the five CRPOs to contractors in its Long-Term Agreement (LTA) pool of offshore service providers in December last year, setting an initial bid submission deadline of 3 February.

    The Saudi energy giant has since extended the bid submission deadline several times – to 31 March, 1 June, 1 July and then 30 July – to allow LTA contractors sufficient time to prepare proposals.

    At the request of some bidders, Aramco granted a final two-day extension, with LTA contractors submitting their proposals for the five CRPOs on 1 August, MEED previously reported.

    Aramco had previously indicated its intention to award contracts for CRPOs 167-171 by October, and the contract awards affirm it has adhered to this schedule.

    Aramco’s LTA pool of offshore service providers comprises the following entities:

    • Saipem (Italy)
    • McDermott International (US)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (LTEH, India) / Subsea7 (UK)
    • NMDC Energy (UAE)
    • Lamprell (UAE/Saudi Arabia)
    • China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (China)
    • Dynamic Industries (US)
    • Sapura Energy (Malaysia)
    • TechnipFMC (France) / MMHE (Malaysia)
    • Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)

    In April 2025, Aramco renewed its LTAs with the following contractors, whose contracts had either lapsed or were close to expiry:

    • Saipem
    • McDermott International
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon / Subsea7
    • NMDC Energy
    • Lamprell
    • China Offshore Oil Engineering Company
    ALSO READ: Aramco upstream spending gathers pace

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20869888/main3523.jpeg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Contractors complete Riyadh airport Terminal 6 work

    23 October 2026

     

    Three contractor teams have completed the early contractor involvement (ECI) phase for Terminal 6 at King Salman International airport (KSIA) in Riyadh, moving the scheme towards a main construction tender and contract award.

    The participating consortiums are:

    • UCC Holding / Consolidated Contractors Company (Qatar/Greece)
    • Modern Building Leaders / Powerchina / Metallurgical Corporation of China (loca/China/China)
    • Al-Gihaz Holding / TAV Construction / Webuild (local/Turkiye/Italy)

    King Salman International Airport Development Company (KSIADC), a subsidiary of Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund, is delivering the terminal package on an ECI basis.

    Under the completed phase, the shortlisted teams submitted detailed construction methodologies and technical design proposals.

    Terminal 6 is planned to boost the airport’s annual capacity by 40 million passengers. KSIADC aims to complete the terminal ahead of Expo 2030 Riyadh.

    In May last year, MEED reported that US-based Bechtel had been appointed as delivery partner for the passenger terminals at KSIA.

    KSIADC's acting CEO Marco Mejia previously confirmed that the airport’s masterplan has been completed. UK-based Foster + Partners designed the masterplan, including the terminals, six parallel runways and a multi-asset real estate district.

    US-based engineering firm Jacobs is providing specialist consultancy services for the masterplan and runway design, while UK-headquartered Mace is acting as delivery partner for the broader development. Local firm Nera secured the airspace design consultancy contract.

    The KSIA project covers about 57 square kilometres (sq km) and incorporates the existing terminals at King Khalid International airport. The scheme will feature 12 sq km of airport support facilities, residential and recreational zones, retail assets and logistics parks.

    The development is targeted to handle up to 120 million passengers a year by 2030 and 185 million passengers by 2050, in addition to an annual cargo throughput of 3.5 million tonnes by 2050.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20860938/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Aramco seeks to build sulphur-handling facilities at Ras Al-Khair

    22 October 2026

     

    Saudi Aramco is engaging developers for a planned project to build sulphur-handling facilities at Ras Al-Khair port on Saudi Arabia’s eastern coast.

    Under the build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) contract, the selected developer would be required to build facilities at Ras Al-Khair port capable of receiving, handling, forming and exporting up to 9,500 metric tonnes a day (t/d) of molten sulphur.

    Additionally, the appointed contractor would be responsible for engineering, procurement and construction, as well as operations and maintenance.

    According to sources, the Saudi energy giant floated the tender for the Ras Al-Khair sulphur-handling facilities project last year. Companies bidding for the BOOT contract have until 30 December to submit proposals, with the previous bid-submission deadline being on 19 September.

    The following developers, among others, are understood to be bidding for the Ras Al-Khair sulphur-handling facilities project:

    • Jereh Group (China)
    • Lamar Holding (Saudi Arabia)
    • Vision Invest (Bahrain/Saudi Arabia)

    Separately, Aramco has appointed Germany-headquartered Fichtner as the consultant on the project.

    The broad scope of work on the project includes development, design, financing, construction, commissioning, testing, ownership, insurance, operations and maintenance of:

    • an onshore sulphur handling and processing station, comprising rail and truck sulphur unloading, molten sulphur storage and sulphur forming facilities;
    • a sulphur exporting station / berth facilities located at berth number 19 at Ras Al-Khair port, comprising formed sulphur storage and a ship loader, with a rail spur system to connect to the Saudi Arabia Railway line to deliver the molten sulphur to the onshore facility, and a sulphur conveyor system to transfer the formed sulphur from the onshore facility to the berth facility;
    • starting from the commercial operation date, the sale of the dependable capacity to Aramco and, to the extent dispatched by Aramco, the formed sulphur output of the plant; and
    • the transfer of the shares in the project company, or alternatively the dismantling and removal of, or transfer of, the plant to Aramco.

    The allocated area for the plant is 1.605 million square metres (sq m), which includes 1.5 million sq m allocated to the onshore facility and 105,000 sq m allocated to the berth facility. The project operator is required to accommodate adequate space for any potential capacity expansion.

    The land for the onshore sulphur station facility is under the jurisdiction of the Royal Commission for Jubail & Yanbu, while the berth plot is under the administration and management control of the Saudi Port Authority (Mawani).

    ALSO READ: Lamprell signs Ras al-Khair fabrication deal for Saudi offshore job

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20842631/main3523.jpg
    Indrajit Sen