US elections set to disappoint region
22 January 2024

Donald Trump’s thumping victory in the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus on 15 January – the first of the US presidential election year – suggests the former president will clear the first of three obstacles separating him from four more years in the White House.
Trump’s opponents claim the result means little and other challengers will shine in due course. The Republican Party’s nomination for president and vice-president, which will be confirmed at its national convention in Milwaukee in July, is far from certain.
But that was said in 2016. And we all know what happened next.
A larger obstacle is the 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, together with a civil suit in New York that could wreck Trump’s businesses. These will come to a head in the middle of the campaign and could influence it.
Lawsuits in some US states that seek to have Trump disqualified from the presidency even if he wins in November will certainly be challenged in the Supreme Court. This is unprecedented and the outcome cannot be confidently forecast.
The final hurdle is winning the presidential vote itself. Opinion polls suggest Trump would beat President Joe Biden, but not by much. More worrying for the Democrats is the slump in Biden’s job approval rating to the lowest for any US president in the past 15 years.
As in 2020, when he lost, Trump is loathed by many American voters. This time, however, Biden is the incumbent and Trump is the challenger. This could make all the difference.
Trump agenda
This spring, the world will have to face up to the prospect that Trump could well be back in 2025. But what could that mean?
Trump’s agenda pivots on appeasing social conservatives while pleasing the middle class with tax cuts and a fiscal policy that keeps the economy humming. The main differences with the Democrats are issues that split Americans across all parties – such as immigration, law and order, abortion and same-sex marriage – with little resonance abroad.
Trump has promised, as he did in 2016, to encourage more fossil fuel production. However, his foreign policy is potentially as consequential as any attempted by a US president in living memory.
In speeches and interviews in recent months, Trump has said he will review Nato’s mission and ask Europe to reimburse the US for almost $200bn-worth of munitions that it has sent to Ukraine. He has said he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, though no one knows how.
Trump plans to raise retaliatory tariffs against countries with trade barriers of their own and has floated the idea of a 10 per cent universal tariff. He has called for an end to China’s most-favoured nation status and new restrictions on Chinese ownership of US infrastructure. Trump rarely discusses Taiwan, though he asserts that China would never dare to invade it if he were president.
Other contentious ideas include intensifying the war against Mexican drug cartels by designating them as foreign terrorists and using special forces to attack their leadership and infrastructure inside Mexico. Under his presidency, the US Navy would enforce a blockade and the Alien Enemies Act would be used to deport drug dealers and gang members.
Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House
Regional letdown
Trump’s pursuit of the unconventional overseas essentially stops at the Middle East, however. What he will do in office depends upon who he appoints as secretary of state and to his national security team, but there are clues.
Trump has shifted from criticising Israel’s leaders at the start of the war in Gaza to focusing on calls to crush Hamas and penalise Iran further. Even he cannot buck the pro-Israel passion of many US voters.
For Trump, the Arab world begins with Saudi Arabia. His first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud and now Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud, heir to the Saudi throne. The kingdom was euphoric, and the memory of the early, heady days of the first Trump presidency still resonates.
His first secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, who the Saudi government knew as Exxon chief executive, was quickly sidelined and replaced in 2018 by Mike Pompeo, a pro-Israel hawk.
The Abraham Accords negotiated by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner fell well short of the kingdom’s long-standing priorities. Riyadh indicated it would follow Bahrain and the UAE into the deal subject to an improbable condition: the creation of a Palestinian state in line with the Arab Peace Initiative approved by the Arab League in 2002.
Trump probably believes the accords and the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem is his lasting Middle East policy initiative. It may well be his only one. Addressing the new Middle East reality created since the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year is probably beyond America’s capacities, whoever is in the White House.
Experience shows that hopes of a US presidential election making a major difference in the Middle East have been dashed time and time again.
The last time Saudi Arabia publicly signalled its backing for a candidate was when the kingdom’s then ambassador to the US, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, appeared at a meeting in support of President George H Bush in 1992. This was probably counterproductive. Bill Clinton won that year, in part because of his charge that Bush’s foreign policy was potentially antisemitic.
There are three foundations to the Middle East’s view of the battle for the White House in 2024.
Firstly, there is little that regional powers can do to influence it.
Secondly, whoever wins will invariably default to the prevailing wisdom and doctrine in Washington, which at present is staunchly pro-Israel.
And thirdly, the region’s future is mainly in its own hands. It is this – not who wins or loses in November – that is the more important realisation.
Image: Trump’s first overseas visit as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, where he met King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. Credit: Official White House Photo/Flickr
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“We are reaching a point where it is not just about building new lines. Customers are now understanding that it is not enough to just buy new trains – they also need long-term partnerships to service and maintain them efficiently,” says Martin Vaujour, Alstom’s Africa, Middle East and Central Asia region president.Alstom, which has supplied rolling stock and systems for major schemes in the region such as the Riyadh Metro, is now seeing growing demand for both new-build contracts and service agreements. “There are still lots of new investments,” he says, “but also growing activity in signalling projects, service projects and spare parts – areas that used to be small but are now taking off. That is a [source] of satisfaction for me, because those businesses are less risky, have better margins and create long-term relationships with customers.”
The change is an important development as the region becomes a mature market with diverse opportunities for the rail industry. “There was a time when countries would just buy materials with export credit,” says Vaujour. “Now, they are supporting local capacity to service and maintain trains. The mindset is evolving, and that is a very positive sign.”
Saudi expansion
Buoyed by the opening of Riyadh Metro at the end of 2024, Saudi Arabia remains an important market. “They are happy with the success [of Riyadh Metro],” says Vaujour. “There is extension work on the existing lines, new rolling stock being discussed and a potential Line 7 project. The network is expanding, and that is a great success story.”
The next wave of growth in Saudi Arabia includes the planned Qiddiya Express high-speed line, which has recently attracted expressions of interest.
“That project has been on our radar for some time,” says Vaujour. “It is under the umbrella of the Royal Commission for Riyadh City, which is very well organised and structured. That gives the project strength and credibility.”
The scheme is being developed as a public-private partnership, a model that Vaujour says fits Saudi Arabia’s stable economic environment. “Public-private partnerships (PPPs) take longer to put together because they are more complex to structure, but in countries like Saudi Arabia – stable and with the capacity to raise debt – why not?” he says.
“We are fine with PPPs. We have experience from France, the UK and Spain.”
While Alstom does not invest directly, it plays a key role in structuring deals. “We are facilitators and advisers,” says Vaujour.
“Our job is to accompany the customer, to adjust and iterate with them, and to help find the best solution. PPP is one of the tools in the box – not the simplest one, but one that works.”
The challenge in the market today is not a lack of opportunity, but deciding where to focus.
“Our main problem is not the market; it is how to be selective,” he says. “We have more than enough opportunities to ensure a nice trajectory of growth. The difficulty is to pick our battles and fight for the right ones.”
The challenge in the market today is not a lack of opportunity, but deciding where to focus
Shifting focus
In Africa and Central Asia, Alstom has long-term locomotive and commuter train partnerships that offer years of visibility. In the Gulf, by contrast, the model remains dominated by engineering, procurement and construction-style projects.
“It is more big projects, where civil contractors team up with us to deliver metros or airport people movers,” says Vaujour.
As regional urban transport networks become established, attention is turning to intercity and high-speed rail. “In the Gulf, the Abu Dhabi-Dubai high-speed project is probably the most advanced, while Qiddiya Express and upgrades to the Haramain line in Saudi Arabia could also accelerate momentum.”
Interest in high-speed connections between Riyadh, Doha and Kuwait is also growing, although such schemes will depend on electrification. “High-speed rail comes with electrification,” Vaujour notes. “And that means significant investment.”
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“Hydrogen and battery traction are progressing, but they are still in an early stage,” says Vaujour. “Diesel will continue to dominate freight for some time, because there is no clean technology yet that can deliver that level of power. But for passenger services, we are starting to see progress.”
Driverless trains are another major growth area. “Customers everywhere are interested, partly because it is increasingly hard to find drivers, and also because software drives more efficiently than humans. It is more energy-efficient and reduces wear and tear,” says Vaujour.
As the Middle East’s networks expand, upgrading existing infrastructure is becoming as important as building new lines. Signalling systems are central to this evolution. “You cannot just create new lines every year – it is too expensive,” says Vaujour. “Signalling allows you to double train frequency. It is what makes networks more efficient.”
The evolution reflects a wider transformation of the region’s rail sector. “The Middle East has become an established rail hub,” says Vaujour. “It is no longer just about building – it is about operating, maintaining and evolving.”
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Dubai launches auto trade hub21 November 2025
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Dubai has announced plans to develop one of the world’s largest and most advanced automotive trading hubs.
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Riyadh sets December deadline for Prince Mishaal Road20 November 2025

The Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has allowed contractors until 3 December to submit bids for a contract to develop Prince Mishaal Bin Abdulaziz Road Axis-Taif Road in Riyadh.
The previous deadline was 19 November.
The scope of work covers general road improvement works, including street upgrades, drainage works, relocation of existing utilities, dry and wet utilities, and other associated infrastructure.
RCRC is investing in improving the road network in and around the kingdom's capital.
Earlier in November, MEED reported that RCRC had begun post-tender clarifications with bidders for a contract covering upgrade works on Najm Al-Din Al-Ayoubi Road in Riyadh.
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- The Dirab Road development project, which will cover 9km and includes the development of two main intersections and the construction of nine bridges.
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Riyadh advances with rail link prequalifications20 November 2025

Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) is expected to begin the second stage of the prequalification process for a contract covering the construction of a new railway line, known as the Riyadh Rail Link, which will run from the north to the south of Riyadh.
MEED understands that the consortiums need to propose self-funded financing arrangements for the project as part of the new round of prequalifications.
Contractors submitted their initial prequalification documents earlier this month.
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Indian contractor bids lowest for $381m Kuwait oil project20 November 2025
Indian contractor Megha Engineering & Infrastructure (Meil) has submitted the lowest bid for an upstream oil project in Kuwait, according to information published by the country’s Central Agency for Public Tenders (Capt).
The company submitted a bid of KD117m ($381m), outbidding six other companies that participated in the tender.
The scope of the project is focused on a water separation facility at the Al-Rawdatain facility in Kuwait.
The water separation facility is being developed at Gathering Centre 25 (GC-25) and a pumping facility is being developed at GC-30.
The full list of bids submitted is:
- Meil (India) – KD117m ($381m)
- Mechanical Engineering & Contracting Company (Kuwait) – KD130m
- Spetco (Kuwait) – KD158m
- Al-Kharafi (Kuwait) – KD164m
- China Oil HBP Science & Technology (China) – KD169m
- Alghanim International (Kuwait) – KD169m
- Jereh Oil & Gas Engineering (China) – KD191m
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The scope of the project includes:
- Installation of three-phase low-pressure (LP) wet separator package
- Installation of low-pressure gas knock out drum (KOD)
- Installation of a high-integrity pressure protection system (HIPPS)
- Installation of wet crude oil header connection
- Installation of LP gas pipelines
- Installation of effluent water (EW) balance tank
- Installation of effluent water transfer pumps
- Installation of fuel gas sweetening modular package
- Installation of chemical injection systems
- Installation of inline analysers
- Installation of high-pressure flare
- Installation of oil recovery system with pumps, flowmeter and analyser
- Interconnecting piping, instrumentation, electrical and civil works
- Installation of fire water network
- Installation of potable water system
- Installation of control room
- Installation of substation cabling
- Related civil, structural, piping, mechanical, electrical and instrumentation works
- Installation of crude oil lines
- Installation of tie-ins for process and utilities
- Installation of effluent water pipeline
In October, KOC awarded Meil a separate contract for its planned project to develop a gas sweetening and recovery facility in West Kuwait.
Hyderabad-based Meil submitted the lowest bid for that tender, at KD69.2m ($225.5m), in February this year.
Kuwait is trying to boost project activity in its upstream sector.
The country’s national oil company, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, is aiming to increase oil production capacity to 4 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2035.
In August, Kuwait announced that it was producing 3.2 million b/d.
Earlier this month, KOC said it was planning to spend KD1.2bn ($3.92bn) on its exploration drilling programme through 2030.
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