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Unlocking AI’s carbon conundrum

31 January 2025

 

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Abu Dhabi has recently launched a $6bn project that combines 5,200MW of solar and 19 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery energy storage capacity to deliver 1,000MW of round-the-clock renewable power capacity, a world first. 

The project addresses the intermittency of renewable energy, which UAE Industry & Advanced Technology Minister Sultan Al-Jaber describes as the “moonshot challenge” of our time.

The goal is to deliver clean baseload capacity much more quickly and at a lower price than a gas or nuclear power plant.

At approximately $60 a megawatt-hour, the project aligns with the mandate of Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) to deliver the lowest-cost energy transition.

Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) will develop the project, which will help to boost its gross capacity, in line with expanding its renewable energy portfolio to 100GW by 2030.

Located on a land area of 90 square kilometres, the solar and battery project is due to become operational by 2027, Masdar’s chief operating officer, Abdulaziz Alobaidli, said on 14 January.

This is in addition to the 1.5GW of annual renewable capacity that Ewec intends to procure until at least the mid-2030s, in line with decarbonising the emirate’s electricity system and reaching net zero by 2050.

Following the project’s launch, Masdar announced the preferred engineering, procurement and construction and other sub-
contractors for the scheme. 

AI and power link 

In December, the US government reportedly approved the export of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips to a Microsoft-operated facility in the UAE, as part of the technology giant’s $1.5bn partnership with Mubadala-backed AI firm G42.

Three months earlier, in September, Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, deputy ruler of Abu Dhabi and national security adviser, met with Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, in Washington to seal an agreement known as the Common Principles for Cooperation on AI, following a meeting between UAE President Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and then-US President Joe Biden.

The meeting took place a few days after US-based equity investment firm BlackRock announced a $100bn tech investment platform called Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership.

The fund’s partners include Mubadala-backed AI fund MGX, which aims to build $100bn in assets under management; US-based Global Infrastructure Partners; and Microsoft.

In January, MGX teamed up with US tech giant Oracle, Japan’s Softbank and ChatGPT creator Open AI to form the Stargate project, a joint venture that aims to invest $500bn in building AI infrastructure in the US over the next four years.

Abu Dhabi has not denied the link between its clean energy capacity buildout and the UAE’s national, and perhaps international, AI strategy.

A social media post on 14 January by President Mohamed Bin Zayed confirmed the 1GW solar plus battery project will directly support Abu Dhabi’s AI plans.

“The project will help power advancements in AI and emerging technologies, supporting delivery of the UAE National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence 2031 and the Net Zero by 2050 strategic initiative,” he said.

Investing in and developing AI infrastructure and applications at home and abroad is now a UAE government priority. It will create jobs and new revenues, and will boost efficiencies in every facet of governance and business.

“The UAE is well positioned [in the developing AI industry],” says Michael Liebreich, managing partner at UK firm EcoPragma Capital, noting that it has “the energy status, geographical advantage and regulatory framework”.

In light of a new US regulation made public in January that restricts access to US-made AI chips, he adds that “you don’t want to have a situation where the UAE will have to choose between one or the other”, referring to the ongoing power struggle over AI between China, an important energy and trade partner of the UAE, and the US, which is a vital political ally.

Investing in and developing AI infrastructure and applications … is now a UAE government priority

Choosing sides

It appears that this choice has been made previously, however.

In an interview in early 2024, G42 CEO Peng Xiao said that his firm is cutting ties with Chinese hardware suppliers in favour of US counterparts, adding: “We cannot work with both sides.”

In addition, in December, Axios – the US media outlet that reported the clearance of AI chip exports by the US to the Microsoft and G42 facility in Abu Dhabi – suggested that the deal is part of efforts by the US government to elbow China out of the UAE’s expanding tech industry.

In Abu Dhabi, Ewec is tasked not only with decarbonising its electricity system by integrating solar and nuclear plants into its gas-dominated power-generation fleets, but also with ensuring 24×7 clean and cheap baseload capacity gets delivered to a project that is a national priority.

An expanding AI industry will also increase the scope for environmental, social and governance (ESG) compliance.

While it is widely accepted that the use of advanced AI solutions such as large- or small-language models or agentic AI for industrial applications can enable some sectors to cut emissions, AI requires hyperscale data centres, and data centres generally are as polluting as the airline industry.

Although the high temperatures and water scarcity of the Middle East can be addressed by another ESG-sensitive industry – seawater desalination – these factors can lead data centres in the region to be more carbon positive than those in other geographies.

For this reason, Abu Dhabi’s 5.2GW/19GWh project is considered a major milestone, potentially blazing a trail that other regions can follow – assuming it is implemented on time and within budget, and despite opposing opinions on its technical and commercial feasibility.

Main image: Sheikh Tahnoon Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, deputy ruler of Abu Dhabi and national security adviser, and Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, signed a cooperation agreement on AI in September 2024. Credit: Wam

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    The developer’s contract was awarded to a consortium comprising Korea Western Power (Kowepo), Qatar’s Nebras Power, the UAE’s Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) and Oman’s Bhawan Infrastructure Services.

    The Misfah IPP will be led by Nebras Power and located in Wilayat Bousher in Muscat Governorate, with a planned capacity of 1,600MW.

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    In November, Oman’s OQ Gas Networks received final investment approval to proceed with gas supply connections for the facilities.

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    In March 2025, the same Sepco 3 and Doosan Enerbility consortium signed an engineering, procurement and construction contract with Saudi Electricity Company for the expansion of the Riyadh Power Plant 12 (PP12).

    Located about 150 kilometres northwest of Riyadh, the 1,863MW power plant is expected to be completed in 2028.

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  • Financial challenge tests Iraq’s resolve

    13 May 2026

     

    On 21 April, as a fragile ceasefire held between the US and Iran, the Trump administration halted a $500m shipment in cash headed for Iraq, as it sought to clamp down on Iranian-backed Shia militias in the country. 

    That cash, derived from Iraqi oil exports and routed via the US Federal Reserve to the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), is a vital cog in Iraq’s financial arteries, enabling it to cover foreign exchange demand.

    This was not the first time that Iraq’s financial system has felt the US’s warm breath on its neck.

    Back in February 2025, the US Treasury Department blacklisted five Iraqi banks from participating in dollar transactions, citing concerns about their role in illicit financial flows that benefited Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

    Iraq has also itself often circumscribed dollar use within its own financial system.

    In July 2023, the CBI banned 14 banks from conducting dollar transactions in a crackdown on dollar smuggling. In February 2024, it banned a further eight banks from dollar transactions as part of a crackdown on fraud and money laundering.

    Dollar pressure

    The recent halt in US dollar cash shipments has nevertheless added pressure to Iraq’s parallel currency market gap, says Lucila Bonilla, lead emerging market economist at Oxford Economics.  

    “The gap between the parallel exchange rate has widened noticeably against the official peg, to around 20%,” she says.

    “Dollar demand has risen as citizens and traders seek to hedge uncertainty – dollar deposits are up, and there are reports of a notable shift in the composition of cash holdings toward dollars.”

    Ratings agencies see the US move on Iraqi dollar use as a challenge, but one that might not prove too onerous.

    “Iraq can overcome a short-term war as it has $100bn of reserves and its debt profile is bearable,” says Gilbert Hobeika, a director at Fitch Ratings.

    “But a longer-term conflict will hurt Iraq as the economy is reliant on oil revenues and government involvement, while facing at the same time risk from the US stopping delivery of US dollars.”

    How persistent the pressure proves will depend largely on the duration of the Hormuz shock and how the relationship with the US evolves.

    “Forming a new government that is palatable to the US could ease the pressure, though Iraq’s protracted government formation process adds uncertainty to that timeline,” says Bonilla.

    The US-Iran war is putting even more pressure on banks.

    “There are uncertainties with regard to depositors,” says Hobeika. “The public sector banks have weak management and governance structures. Financial reporting is weak, and that puts pressure on asset quality and capitalisation.”

    If the conflict lasts a long time, the government will start withdrawing funds to pay salaries and contractors.

    “That will affect deposits at the public sector banks in the near term,” says Hobeika.

    State-heavy system

    Iraq’s banking system is dominated by a handful of state-owned banks with a market share of 75%-80%, and then 60-plus private banks competing for the remaining 20%-25% of the pie. 

    “Private banks have struggled to compete in a market with limited opportunities, small deposit bases and a narrow range of products, often focusing on very basic activities,” says Lea Hanna, an analyst at Moody’s.

    “In 2019, we had a wave of Islamic banks getting bans on dealing with US dollars – reducing what had been a primary source of business.”

    A few private banks have benefitted since then, namely those with majority ownership by foreign banks such as National Bank of Iraq, a subsidiary of Capital Bank of Jordan, and Bank of Baghdad, a subsidiary of Jordan Kuwait Bank.

    “Supported by their affiliates, these banks are relatively well run compared to domestic peers and have ample capital buffers,” says Hanna.

    “They have captured a large market share of US dollar transfers thanks to their strong US correspondent banking relationships that allow them easier access to US dollars. They have seen a surge in their profitability and an increase in their deposit base.”

    Financial reform

    The CBI has attempted to introduce reforms to the banking system, as part of a wider effort to enable it to channel funding to the private sector.

    In early 2025, it increased the minimum issued and paid-up capital requirement to ID400bn ($305m), along with a requirement to establish correspondent banking relationships for foreign-currency trading. The plan was to increase these in ID50bn increments every six months, to hasten sector consolidation.

    However, of Fitch’s rated banks, just two – state-owned Trade Bank of Iraq and Mansour Bank, a subsidiary of Qatar National Bank – met the full capital requirement.

    “While a lot of banks managed to increase their capital, a number of them didn’t and have been struggling to improve their systems and compliance with anti-terrorism and anti-money laundering regulations,” says Hobeika.

    “These systems take a long time to improve, and it costs the banks too. For that reason, they have agreed with the central bank to postpone implementation to 2027/28.”

    The expectation is that the number of private Iraqi banks will shrink from 60 to about half that number by 2028.

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    “The stakes are high as the IMF estimates that a comprehensive reform of the financial sector, alongside broader governance and regulatory changes, could double Iraq’s non-oil growth potential over the medium term, adding around 4 percentage points to GDP,” says Bonilla.

    “For now, the reforms address the plumbing. The structural transformation of a banking system to serve the private sector is still largely ahead.”

    Clouded outlook

    So far, Iraq’s financial system seems to have averted a worst-case scenario of large-scale deposit withdrawals related to the Iran conflict.

    Any deposit withdrawals seem to be more related to the introduction of a digital custom system ASYCUDA (Automated System for Customs Data) aimed at helping the government collect revenues, which saw a lot of traders trying to bypass the custom charges.

    “This drove some exporters or traders to source US dollars outside the banking system, in the parallel market, to avoid stricter requirements and up-front payment of customs duties. That has now eased,” says Hanna.

    Looking ahead, Fitch anticipates that most government financing is likely to come from the CBI through indirect purchases of government securities.

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    Fitch says the CBI’s balance sheet limits refinancing risks, while the FX reserves are large enough to absorb the expansion of that balance sheet without putting pressure on the exchange-rate peg with the US dollar.

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    It also recently announced the signing of a 2GW solar PV module supply agreement with China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC) for Saudi Arabia’s Phase Six Khurais PV project.

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  • Dubai opens prequalification for Jebel Ali STP expansion

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    Dubai Municipality has issued a request for qualifications for the Jebel Ali sewerage treatment plant (STP) expansion – phase 3 project.

    The DS150/3 project will be delivered under a public-private partnership (PPP) model on a design, build, finance, own, operate and transfer basis.

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  • Iraq LNG project delayed until next year

    13 May 2026

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    Iraq’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal, which has an estimated project value of $450m, is now expected to become operational in 2027 due to delays caused by the regional war and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Work on jetty reinforcement and fixed terminal infrastructure at the Port of Khor Al-Zubair has been delayed, according to a statement from US-based Excelerate Energy, which is contracted to develop the facility.

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    It added: “The Iraq project fundamentals remain unchanged. Looking ahead, we continue to have confidence in our sequenced earnings growth through 2028.”

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    Iraq’s reliance on flaring associated gas instead of gathering and processing it has prevented the country from fully realising its potential as a gas producer and forced the Iraqi government to rely on costly gas and electricity imports from Iran.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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