meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Uncertainty and instability damage Libyan oil sector optimism

24 February 2025

 

Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

Optimism among stakeholders in Libya’s oil and gas sector has evaporated in recent months as the approval of the country’s budget has been delayed and instability has undermined operations at state-owned oil and gas companies.

In early February, the UN Support Mission in Libya (Unsmil) called for all the conflicting parties in the North African country to start work immediately on agreeing on a unified state budget.

It said a transparent and equitable budget is crucial for strengthening fiscal responsibility, optimising resource allocation and ensuring economic stability in Libya.

Unified budget

A unified budget is also expected to enhance the ability of the Central Bank of Libya to implement effective monetary policies, stabilise the exchange rate and manage public spending sustainably.

Several meetings have been held to attempt to reach an approval on a unified budget for 2025, but little progress has been made by Libya’s rival political factions towards reaching an agreement.

In December, Stephanie Koury, acting UN special representative for Libya, said: “A unified budget is essential to establish clear spending limits and ensure transparent management of public resources.”

Libya’s oil and gas industry is one of the most important sectors, in terms of generating government revenues, that has been impacted by the budget delays.

One industry source said: “If a unified budget isn’t approved within the next 30 days, the consequences are going to be very serious.

“You can forget about all of the progress that has been made in the country’s oil and gas sector over the last two or three years – we are going to set right back to square one.”

Without a budget being approved, state-owned oil companies are struggling to push forward with their investment plans and the development of projects.

Licensing round

As well as ongoing delays to projects and approvals in Libya’s oil and gas sector, the country’s plans for its first oil and gas licensing round in 15 years are being delayed.

In January 2024, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced its plan to launch the round.

The bid round for exploration and production agreements was expected to offer exploration blocks in the Murzuq, Ghadames and Sirte basins.

As well as ongoing delays to projects and approvals in Libya’s oil and gas sector, the country’s plans for its first oil and gas licensing round in 15 years are being delayed.

Throughout much of 2024, there was significant optimism that the round would be launched without major delays and that it could support the country’s plans to boost oil and gas production.

In 2024, NOC announced a plan to execute 45 greenfield and brownfield projects to try to boost the country’s oil production from 1.25 million barrels a day (b/d) to 2 million b/d.

Libya is aiming to hit its 2 million b/d target within three years.

It was initially expected that the planned licensing round would be launched in late October or early November of 2024.

However, in October, delays started to be announced – and now stakeholders have significant doubts about whether the round will be launched before the end of 2025.

The budget delays and other ongoing disagreements between the country’s rival political factions are damaging the image of the country’s oil and gas sector and are likely to make international companies less interested in participating in the bidding round, if it is eventually launched.

One industry source said: “In the middle of last year, a lot of big international companies were showing interest, but now it is all negativity.

“People were talking about the licensing round and new projects, as well as expanding existing projects.

“Now, all of those discussions have evaporated.”

Sentiment is also being damaged by clashes in the country.

In 2024, there were several violent clashes between militias, including in Zawiya in July.

These were followed by further hostilities in the same region in December, which occurred next to the Zawiya refinery and caused a major fire at the facility.

Oil sector leadership

Instability in Libya’s oil and gas sector has been exacerbated by major changes in senior positions within the country’s publicly owned oil and gas companies and the oil ministry.

In June 2024, Libya's sidelined oil minister Mohamed Oun called on Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibeh to clarify who was in charge of the ministry.

Exactly who ran the oil ministry became unclear after Oun returned to work on 28 May 2024, following the lifting of a temporary suspension by a state watchdog.

During his absence, Oun was replaced by oil ministry undersecretary Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadek, who represented Libya at an Opec+ meeting on 2 June.

Oun complained that Dbeibeh refused to recognise him as oil minister after his return to work, and Oun then cut off all communication with him, making it impossible to carry out his duties.

Oun was ultimately officially replaced by Abdulsadek, who continues to run the ministry.

NOC has seen other major changes. The resignation of chairman Farhat Bengdara was accepted in January and he has been replaced by acting chairman Massoud Suleman.

NOC subsidiaries have also seen tumultuous changes in recent months.

In mid-February, the chairman of Libya’s state-owned Waha Oil Company, Fathi Ben-Zahia, was detained on several charges, sparking concerns about the future of oil and gas projects in the country.

Waha is one of the biggest and most active subsidiaries of NOC and is responsible for some of the country’s biggest active oil projects.

The charges against Ben-Zahia include a LD770m ($156m) contract fraud, according to a statement issued by the country’s Attorney General’s Office.

The statement said that preliminary research by the attorney general’s deputy public prosecutor had revealed that the Waha chairman had awarded a contract worth LD770m for sea defences at the Sidra oil port, when a lower bid of LD339m was submitted by another company competing for the contract.

Prior to the arrest of Ben-Zahia, Waha was seen as one of the best-performing state oil companies in the country.

In November last year, Waha Oil Company reported its highest crude production level in 11 years.

The company recorded a daily output of 350,549 barrels, contributing to Libya’s total daily production of 1.4 million barrels.

Private sector

While the country’s public sector oil companies have run into more problems in recent months, and struggled to deal with issues related to the delays to the unified budget, Libya's first private company to export oil has seen significant growth.

Arkenu Oil Company, which was set up in 2023 and is linked to the faction that controls eastern Libya, has exported oil worth at least $600m since May 2024, according to shipping records and UN experts.

According to experts, this means that some of the country's oil revenue is likely being channelled away from the central bank.

One industry source said: “The activities of Arkenu Oil Company are worrying because it shows that institutions like NOC and the central bank are losing their grip on the country’s oil and gas sector.”

Economic problems

Projects in Libya are also suffering from broader economic issues that could get a lot worse if there are further delays to the approval of a unified budget for 2025.

NOC is already suffering from major cash flow issues that will be exacerbated by further delays.

It is also likely that value of the Libyan dinar against the US dollar on the black market will be weakened, and more pressure will be put on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Further currency weakness is likely to make it harder to import materials and equipment for new projects, as well as making it more difficult to get spare parts for existing facilities.

One source said: “Right now, the dialogue about oil and gas projects in Libya is changing dramatically.

“Before, we were talking about which new projects were going to get developed and how quickly. Now, we are no longer talking about new projects and there are concerns that existing facilities will face major problems.”

The ongoing challenges in Libya, and the failure to deal with key issues, means that in the future the country could see declines in upstream production rates and refinery throughput, rather than the expansions that were previously expected.

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13419239/main.jpg
Wil Crisp

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift

    27 March 2026

    Commentary
    John Bambridge
    Analysis editor

    The headline story of Saudi Arabia’s project economy in 2026 is what is no longer being built: The Line deferred. The Mukaab suspended. Trojena stripped of its marquee event. Saudi Arabia’s construction sector is in a period of readjustment, pivoting away from prestige-driven capital expenditure towards deliverable priorities.

    Operation Epic Fury changes none of this. The pivot was already under way following the Public Investment Fund’s board review in late 2024, which cut budgets across more than 100 investee companies by up to 60%. However, the Iran war has helped accelerate and clarify the shift.

    Grasping the full picture of this pivot, it is less austere than it might appear. Project awards declined in 2025, but remained above historical averages, resulting in a net gain for the sector.

    Activity generally remains strong. Saudi Arabia’s rail network is expanding on multiple fronts: the Jeddah Metro Blue Line has returned to procurement, while high-speed and national rail projects are advancing. Desalination capacity is forecast to nearly double by 2031, and wind power contract values surged by 175% in 2025. Saudi Aramco is maintaining high capital expenditure in 2026, focused on offshore projects and gas production.

    These programmes may not attract the global attention of a 170-kilometre mirrored city, but they share something gigaprojects often lacked: a clear functional return. Water security, energy diversification, transport connectivity and domestic gas supply are the load-bearing infrastructure of a modern economy. The kingdom is now building that infrastructure again in earnest.

    The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made the strategic logic of this reorientation even harder to ignore. Glitzy projects do not secure borders. By contrast, a country that cannot guarantee the security of its export corridors is strongly incentivised to invest in infrastructure that supports its domestic economic base and strengthens resilience. Every desalination plant, rail link and gigawatt of renewable capacity reduces Saudi Arabia’s exposure to external shocks.

    The medium-term direction was already clear: capital was being redeployed from speculative projects towards infrastructure with bankable returns. That rationale has now gained additional strategic weight.

    As Saudi Arabia’s project economy matures, what is emerging is less photogenic but far more defensible: the infrastructure backbone that Vision 2030 always required, and that the kingdom’s exposure to regional instability now demands. The Iran war did not create this shift, but it has removed any remaining argument for reversing it.

     

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16163037/main.gif
    John Bambridge
  • Remaking construction in Saudi Arabia

    27 March 2026

     

    As the Public Investment Fund (PIF) took a leading role in developing projects following the launch of Vision 2030, it quickly realised that Saudi Arabia’s construction sector needed support if the kingdom was to achieve its broader economic ambitions.

    The PIF’s National Development Division (NDD) is the entity tasked with building capacity and capability in the construction sector to support PIF projects and other strategically important schemes in the kingdom. 

    “Our job is to facilitate the development of the local value chains, which are essential to support the development and operations of PIF portfolio companies,” says Leyla Abdimomunova, head of real estate and construction, National Development Division, PIF.

    The scale of this undertaking requires a multi-front strategy, targeting everything from consultancy services and contracting capacity to raw materials and advanced technologies. 

    “The focus is on design and construction services, building materials, construction equipment and the value chain for all things in construction technology. This work requires engagements with stakeholders within the PIF portfolio: development and contracting companies where PIF has a share,” says Abdimomunova. “We also work closely with governmental stakeholders – including the Ministry of Municipalities & Housing, the Ministry of Investment and the Ministry of Industry & Mineral Resources – alongside our private sector partners, to ensure alignment across the ecosystem. 

    “This collaboration approach is essential to addressing market challenges holistically and creating an environment where businesses can invest, grow and participate more effectively in Saudi Arabia’s development,” she notes.

    Unified strategy 

    The integrated approach was born out of necessity. 

    “When we started this work five years ago, the initial challenge we dealt with was the shortage of the local supply of construction services and materials,” says Abdimomunova.

    To bridge the gap, the NDD looked to both support local players and attract international firms. 

    “The focus was on the localisation of the supply chain, bringing the manufacturing capacity into the kingdom by either expanding the existing capacities of local players or installing new capacity together with local players, but also bringing foreign investments into the country to set up factories,” she says.

    On the services side, the challenge was reputational. Riyadh had to convince the world’s best builders that the Saudi market had fundamentally changed. While courting global giants, the NDD also had to address the fragmentation of the domestic market. 

    “We found that there were two primary obstacles in our portfolio: a high concentration of contractors on one hand, and underutilised capabilities of the local contractors on the other hand.”

    The challenge was moving the large number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from the periphery to the core of the PIF’s portfolio of projects. 

    “In order to overcome these obstacles, a lot of focus was on attracting international contractors – those that were not working in the kingdom at the time – in order to expand and diversify the pool of contractors, while also putting a lot of effort into building up the capabilities within the local market,” Abdimomunova notes. 

    “The local contracting market is very fragmented. A large proportion of contractors are SMEs, and only the large Saudi contractors are predominantly known inside the kingdom. 

    “We put in place programmes to support the development of the medium-sized contractors and increase their visibility to our development companies,” she says.

    A lot of effort went into making sure contractors have access to financing
    Leyla Abdimomunova, National Development Division, PIF

    The NDD has also introduced practical upskilling and financial tools. “We put in place a few tools, working together with ecosystem partners. For example, the Prequalification Platform, which was launched and is being operated with the Saudi Contractors Authority, [and] contractor upskilling bootcamps that have been delivered by our development companies to provide contractors with the basic understanding needed to be able to bid for projects.

    “A lot of effort went into making sure contractors have access to financing,” Abdimomunova adds.

    Indeed, addressing the finances of the construction sector was another critical area for the NDD. 

    By moving beyond traditional methods and practices, it has introduced more flexible liquidity options for the industry. 

    “We launched the Contractor Financing Programme to expand access to financing and strengthen liquidity for contactors supporting Saudi Arabia’s development pipeline. 

    “In partnership with the National Infrastructure Fund, we introduced guarantee mechanisms to unlock additional bank lending capacity, alongside a new product for the region: surety bonds – as an insurance alternative to traditional bank guarantees,” says Abdimomunova. 

    “Since receiving regulatory approval last year, 34 surety bonds have already been issued, helping contractors participate more effectively in large-scale projects.”

    Adjusting priorities

    With the foundational work established, the NDD is now shifting its focus towards streamlining the experience for international companies and tackling the sector’s long-standing structural hurdles. 

    Looking ahead, the NDD intends to tackle the perennial problems of the industry – payment delays and productivity – to ensure that the transformation of the sector is permanent.

    “Going forwards, our work will go one level deeper, focusing on resolving structural challenges and strengthening the underlying enablers that support private sector participation. 

    “We are working closely with our partners across Saudi Arabia to ensure these improvements are sustainable, scalable and embedded not only within the PIF’s ecosystem, but across the broader national economy,” Abdimomunova concludes. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16160974/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Contractor appointed for Morocco grand stadium rail station

    27 March 2026

    Moroccan construction firm Jet Contractors has won a contract to build a railway station at the Grand Stade Hassan II stadium in Benslimane, as part of the Kenitra-Marrakech high-speed rail project.

    The estimated $45m deal was awarded by the Moroccan National Railways Office (ONCF).

    The new station will serve the 115,000-seat Grand Stade Hassan II and will allow passengers to travel from Casablanca and Rabat in 20 minutes using the high-speed rail network.

    It is expected to handle around 12 million passengers a year. Construction of the station is scheduled for completion in 2028.

    Construction work on the main stadium started in June last year, when a joint venture of local contractors Travaux Generaux de Construction de Casablanca and Societe Generale des Travaux du Maroc was awarded a $320m contract for the next stage of works on the stadium. The venue will be one of the hosts for the 2030 Fifa World Cup.

    The stadium is being built on a 100-hectare site in the El-Mansouria area of Benslimane Province, 38 kilometres north of Casablanca.

    Morocco has been investing heavily in upgrading its infrastructure for the football World Cup, which it is co-hosting with Spain and Portugal.

    Morocco was effectively confirmed as a host country alongside Spain and Portugal in October 2023, after the group emerged as the sole bidder for the event. The official selection was announced in December last year.

    Along with building a stadium in Benslimane, the Moroccan government plans to revamp six existing stadiums in Agadir, Casablanca, Fez, Marrakech, Rabat and Tangier, and upgrade air, road and rail projects.

    Last year, Morocco’s transport and logistics minister unveiled a MD96bn ($9.5bn) investment plan to transform the country’s rail infrastructure by 2030.

    The announcement followed the award of about MD20bn-worth of contracts in November 2024 – mostly to local and Chinese firms – for civil works packages on the Marrakech-Kenitra high-speed rail line.

    The link will extend the Al-Boraq railway, a high-speed rail line between Tangier, Rabat and Casablanca. The line started operating in 2018 and was Africa’s first high-speed railway system.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16159882/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • March 2026: Data drives regional projects

    27 March 2026

    Click here to download the PDF

    Includes: Commodity tracker | Top 10 global contractors | Brent spot price | Construction output

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16146608/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Redefining the region’s arbitration landscape

    27 March 2026

     

    In the midst of increasing international investments and commercial transactions in the Middle East, arbitration remains a key component for the resolution of complex commercial disputes. Its effectiveness, however, depends not only on arbitral tribunals, but also on how national courts define their roles in oversight and enforcement.

    Recent trends in the Middle East have shown a more disciplined judicial approach with a clearer delineation of roles between courts and arbitral tribunals.

    Enforcement: a narrower approach

    Enforcement of foreign awards has been a key area of development.

    In the UAE, the Committee for the Unification of Federal and Local Judicial Principles ruled in Petition No. 1 of 2025 that an award shall be valid and enforceable provided the arbitrators sign only the final page. Referring to earlier Dubai Court of Cassation decisions (1), the Committee noted that procedural rules should not be used to defeat substantive rights and that legal procedures are meant to serve justice, not to create technical barriers. 

    The Dubai Court of Cassation adopted the same approach, confirming that arbitrators are not required to sign every page of the award and that issues already examined during arbitration, including signatory capacity, cannot be reopened at the enforcement stage. (2) 

    A similar emphasis on clarity can be seen in Saudi Arabia, where the Arbitration Law is currently under review, with the aim of modernising the legislative framework and enhancing predictability. The draft reform includes clearer provisions regarding court–tribunal interaction, permits courts to stay annulment proceedings or enforcement challenges for up to 60 days to enable tribunals to cure defects, and confirms that partial and interim awards have the authority of a final judgment and are directly enforceable.

    The ADGM and Dubai Courts have also introduced a system of reciprocal enforcement of ratified arbitral awards without the need to re-examine the underlying award.

    These developments therefore suggest a narrower approach and a reduced scope for expansive review at the enforcement stage.

    Recent trends have shown a more disciplined judicial approach with a clearer delineation of roles between courts and arbitral tribunals

    Judicial intervention: limits of review

    Courts have also refined the scope of annulment and supervisory review.

    The Abu Dhabi Court of Cassation clarified that annulment is not an appeal on the merits. Courts may not reweigh evidence or revisit a tribunal’s interpretation of the law. The grounds of annulment remain limited to the statutory grounds set out in the Federal Arbitration Law. (3)

    Egyptian courts likewise limit grounds for annulment to exhaustively listed statutory grounds, excluding reassessment of the merits.

    In the wider regional landscape, Morocco’s arbitration reform demonstrates a similar trajectory. The updated framework modernises the regime and clarifies the supportive role of domestic courts, reinforcing a structured balance between oversight and arbitral autonomy.

    Across these jurisdictions, review powers are increasingly exercised within defined legal parameters rather than through re-examination of arbitral reasoning.

    Public policy: a limited exception

    Public policy continues to be a ground for refusing enforcement, but recent decisions suggest it is applied with greater restraint. For instance, in the UAE, the imposition of compound interest is not considered to be in contravention of public policy. (4) At the DIFC level, the Court specified that the refusal on public policy grounds is subject to a high standard and is only justified where enforcement would “violate the forum state’s most basic notions of morality and justice”. (5)

    Saudi Arabia recognises sharia compliance and public policy as potential grounds for refusal. While rooted in the foundations of its legal system, they operate within defined statutory boundaries.

    Public policy therefore functions as a defined safeguard rather than a vehicle for broad review.

    Implications for cross-border activity

    Where enforcement review is confined to the grounds set out in the New York Convention and annulment remains limited to statutory bases, the interaction between tribunals and courts becomes more predictable. In disputes involving assets across multiple states, this delineation contributes to greater certainty at the post-award stage.

    The complementary role of the ICC

    Institutional practice operates alongside these developments.

    The ICC Court and its Secretariat ensure proceedings are conducted with care, independence, impartiality and integrity, in strict compliance with the Court’s obligations and duties under its rules. In doing so, the Court and the Secretariat monitor cases to safeguard due process and procedural fairness.

    One of the distinctive features of ICC arbitration and a cornerstone of the Rules is the Court’s scrutiny of all draft awards. Such a process serves to enhance the quality of the award, improve its general accuracy and persuasiveness; and maximise its legal effectiveness by identifying any defects that could be used in an attempt to have it set aside at the place of arbitration or resist its enforcement elsewhere. 

    In complex, multi-contract and multi-jurisdictional disputes, this scrutiny plays an important role in safeguarding enforceability across different jurisdictions. 

    As courts continue to define the limits of intervention, institutional discipline and judicial oversight increasingly operate side by side, reinforcing confidence in arbitration across the Middle East.

    1. Dubai Court of Cassation – Cases No. 109/2022 and No. 403/2020  2. Dubai Court of Cassation – Appeals Nos. 778 and 887 of 2025  3. Abu Dhabi Court of Cassation – Cases Nos. 1115/2024 and No. 166/2024  4. Dubai Court of Cassation – Appeals Nos. 778 and 887 of 2025  5. DIFC Court of Appeal’s decision dated 9 January 2025

    About the author
    Laetitia Rabbat is deputy counsel, ICC International Court of Arbitration, Abu Dhabi

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16145450/main.gif