meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Uncertainty and instability damage Libyan oil sector optimism

24 February 2025

 

Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

Optimism among stakeholders in Libya’s oil and gas sector has evaporated in recent months as the approval of the country’s budget has been delayed and instability has undermined operations at state-owned oil and gas companies.

In early February, the UN Support Mission in Libya (Unsmil) called for all the conflicting parties in the North African country to start work immediately on agreeing on a unified state budget.

It said a transparent and equitable budget is crucial for strengthening fiscal responsibility, optimising resource allocation and ensuring economic stability in Libya.

Unified budget

A unified budget is also expected to enhance the ability of the Central Bank of Libya to implement effective monetary policies, stabilise the exchange rate and manage public spending sustainably.

Several meetings have been held to attempt to reach an approval on a unified budget for 2025, but little progress has been made by Libya’s rival political factions towards reaching an agreement.

In December, Stephanie Koury, acting UN special representative for Libya, said: “A unified budget is essential to establish clear spending limits and ensure transparent management of public resources.”

Libya’s oil and gas industry is one of the most important sectors, in terms of generating government revenues, that has been impacted by the budget delays.

One industry source said: “If a unified budget isn’t approved within the next 30 days, the consequences are going to be very serious.

“You can forget about all of the progress that has been made in the country’s oil and gas sector over the last two or three years – we are going to set right back to square one.”

Without a budget being approved, state-owned oil companies are struggling to push forward with their investment plans and the development of projects.

Licensing round

As well as ongoing delays to projects and approvals in Libya’s oil and gas sector, the country’s plans for its first oil and gas licensing round in 15 years are being delayed.

In January 2024, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced its plan to launch the round.

The bid round for exploration and production agreements was expected to offer exploration blocks in the Murzuq, Ghadames and Sirte basins.

As well as ongoing delays to projects and approvals in Libya’s oil and gas sector, the country’s plans for its first oil and gas licensing round in 15 years are being delayed.

Throughout much of 2024, there was significant optimism that the round would be launched without major delays and that it could support the country’s plans to boost oil and gas production.

In 2024, NOC announced a plan to execute 45 greenfield and brownfield projects to try to boost the country’s oil production from 1.25 million barrels a day (b/d) to 2 million b/d.

Libya is aiming to hit its 2 million b/d target within three years.

It was initially expected that the planned licensing round would be launched in late October or early November of 2024.

However, in October, delays started to be announced – and now stakeholders have significant doubts about whether the round will be launched before the end of 2025.

The budget delays and other ongoing disagreements between the country’s rival political factions are damaging the image of the country’s oil and gas sector and are likely to make international companies less interested in participating in the bidding round, if it is eventually launched.

One industry source said: “In the middle of last year, a lot of big international companies were showing interest, but now it is all negativity.

“People were talking about the licensing round and new projects, as well as expanding existing projects.

“Now, all of those discussions have evaporated.”

Sentiment is also being damaged by clashes in the country.

In 2024, there were several violent clashes between militias, including in Zawiya in July.

These were followed by further hostilities in the same region in December, which occurred next to the Zawiya refinery and caused a major fire at the facility.

Oil sector leadership

Instability in Libya’s oil and gas sector has been exacerbated by major changes in senior positions within the country’s publicly owned oil and gas companies and the oil ministry.

In June 2024, Libya's sidelined oil minister Mohamed Oun called on Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibeh to clarify who was in charge of the ministry.

Exactly who ran the oil ministry became unclear after Oun returned to work on 28 May 2024, following the lifting of a temporary suspension by a state watchdog.

During his absence, Oun was replaced by oil ministry undersecretary Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadek, who represented Libya at an Opec+ meeting on 2 June.

Oun complained that Dbeibeh refused to recognise him as oil minister after his return to work, and Oun then cut off all communication with him, making it impossible to carry out his duties.

Oun was ultimately officially replaced by Abdulsadek, who continues to run the ministry.

NOC has seen other major changes. The resignation of chairman Farhat Bengdara was accepted in January and he has been replaced by acting chairman Massoud Suleman.

NOC subsidiaries have also seen tumultuous changes in recent months.

In mid-February, the chairman of Libya’s state-owned Waha Oil Company, Fathi Ben-Zahia, was detained on several charges, sparking concerns about the future of oil and gas projects in the country.

Waha is one of the biggest and most active subsidiaries of NOC and is responsible for some of the country’s biggest active oil projects.

The charges against Ben-Zahia include a LD770m ($156m) contract fraud, according to a statement issued by the country’s Attorney General’s Office.

The statement said that preliminary research by the attorney general’s deputy public prosecutor had revealed that the Waha chairman had awarded a contract worth LD770m for sea defences at the Sidra oil port, when a lower bid of LD339m was submitted by another company competing for the contract.

Prior to the arrest of Ben-Zahia, Waha was seen as one of the best-performing state oil companies in the country.

In November last year, Waha Oil Company reported its highest crude production level in 11 years.

The company recorded a daily output of 350,549 barrels, contributing to Libya’s total daily production of 1.4 million barrels.

Private sector

While the country’s public sector oil companies have run into more problems in recent months, and struggled to deal with issues related to the delays to the unified budget, Libya's first private company to export oil has seen significant growth.

Arkenu Oil Company, which was set up in 2023 and is linked to the faction that controls eastern Libya, has exported oil worth at least $600m since May 2024, according to shipping records and UN experts.

According to experts, this means that some of the country's oil revenue is likely being channelled away from the central bank.

One industry source said: “The activities of Arkenu Oil Company are worrying because it shows that institutions like NOC and the central bank are losing their grip on the country’s oil and gas sector.”

Economic problems

Projects in Libya are also suffering from broader economic issues that could get a lot worse if there are further delays to the approval of a unified budget for 2025.

NOC is already suffering from major cash flow issues that will be exacerbated by further delays.

It is also likely that value of the Libyan dinar against the US dollar on the black market will be weakened, and more pressure will be put on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Further currency weakness is likely to make it harder to import materials and equipment for new projects, as well as making it more difficult to get spare parts for existing facilities.

One source said: “Right now, the dialogue about oil and gas projects in Libya is changing dramatically.

“Before, we were talking about which new projects were going to get developed and how quickly. Now, we are no longer talking about new projects and there are concerns that existing facilities will face major problems.”

The ongoing challenges in Libya, and the failure to deal with key issues, means that in the future the country could see declines in upstream production rates and refinery throughput, rather than the expansions that were previously expected.

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13419239/main.jpg
Wil Crisp

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Adnoc Distribution signs deal to enter South Africa

    14 July 2026

    Adnoc Distribution, the fuel retailing business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group), has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of the share capital of UK energy major Shell’s downstream unit in South Africa.

    The proposed acquisition is estimated to have an enterprise value of approximately $1bn for 100% of the share capital of Shell Downstream South Africa (SDSA), part of Shell South Africa Holdings, prior to adjustment for net debt and working capital.

    The transaction is expected to close in 2027, subject to customary regulatory conditions, other conditions precedent and closing conditions, Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange-listed Adnoc Distribution said.

    Additionally, Adnoc Distribution intends to sell a 28% stake in SDSA to a local empowerment partner and employee stock option plan following completion of the acquisition.

    Furthermore, Adnoc Distribution will enter into a long-term brand licensing agreement upon completion of the acquisition, to retain the Shell brand for retail service stations and lubricants businesses in South Africa.

    BofA Securities acted as the sole financial advisor. A&O Shearman and ENS provided legal counsel to Adnoc Distribution on the transaction.

    SDSA represents Shell’s downstream business in South Africa, including a network of 580 company- and dealer-owned mobility and convenience sites, as well as lubricants, commercial fuels, aviation and marine businesses. The brand had fuel volumes of approximately 3.5 billion litres and operated 360 convenience stores as of 2025.

    The proposed acquisition will mark a step forward in Adnoc Distribution’s international expansion, as well as in its drive to grow its fuel retail presence in Africa.

    South Africa is the fourth country where Adnoc Distribution will operate and follows its acquisition of a 50% stake in TotalEnergies Marketing Egypt in 2023 and the 2018 launch of its retail fuel stations in Saudi Arabia.

    Established in 1973, Adnoc Distribution has 1,032 service stations – 568 in the UAE, 219 in Saudi Arabia and 245 in Egypt, as of 31 March this year.

    As a non-fuel retail leader in the UAE, it operates 386 Adnoc Oasis convenience stores, 37 vehicle inspection centres and other services such as car wash and lube change, and has 400 electric vehicle charging points installed under the E2Go brand in the UAE.

    The company is also a marketer and distributor of fuels to commercial, industrial and government customers throughout the UAE.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17664769/main4804.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Expo 2030 Riyadh construction gathers pace

    14 July 2026

     

    Construction activity at the Expo 2030 Riyadh site is accelerating, with Expo Riyadh 2030 Company (ERC) moving to award its first major vertical contracts and advancing infrastructure works across a programme that will eventually require between 50,000 and 70,000 workers at peak.

    Saudi Arabia’s first World Expo runs from 1 October 2030 to 31 March 2031. Riyadh was awarded the hosting rights in November 2023, winning the vote in the first round, and the event is projected to attract more than 40 million visits over its six months. Beyond the event itself, the project carries significant economic weight: ERC, wholly owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), expects the construction phase and legacy development to contribute around $64bn to Saudi GDP and generate approximately 171,000 direct and indirect jobs, with the live event contributing a further $5.6bn.

    The masterplan covers 6 million square metres to the north of Riyadh, adjacent to the future King Salman International airport. After the event closes, ERC plans to transform the site into a global village combining retail, food and beverage and an international residential community – meaning every asset being built now is being designed with its post-Expo purpose in mind.

    Infrastructure works under way

    The earliest works on site – bulk earthworks including cut, fill and levelling – have been completed by local contractor Binyah, with millions of cubic metres of material moved to bring the site to design level.

    The programme has now moved into utility infrastructure, which has been split into two packages. Nesma is constructing the primary utility networks – the main corridor running around the site carrying high-voltage power lines, water mains, sewerage and communications – while Al-Yamama is delivering the secondary networks that bring services into the central event area, with construction expected to commence this month.

    Power has been a priority. ERC has worked with the Saudi electricity sector since 2025 to develop the site’s demand profile, and an agreement for permanent supply has been signed. Design and procurement of the main substation and primary power infrastructure are under way, with a contract award expected within weeks and full permanent power – at a capacity of 400MW – targeted approximately 18 months ahead of the event.

    An initial 25MW supply to power site operations and support testing and commissioning is already installed and ready to be energised.

    On water, ERC is finalising an agreement with the Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC), the Saudi Water Authority and the National Water Company, with an announcement expected in Q3 and construction targeted to start in 2027.

    Transport and connectivity

    With more than 42 million visits anticipated over the six-month event, transport connectivity is treated as central to the project’s success. ERC is working with RCRC on a mobility plan that covers several modes. Two road enhancement projects around the airport and along King Salman Road are expected to be announced shortly, increasing capacity on the main arteries approaching the site.

    A dedicated Expo metro station on Riyadh Metro Line 4 – which connects the airport to the city centre – will be built within the site boundary, forming the first stop from the airport towards Riyadh, and providing a direct link for international arrivals.

    A park-and-ride programme using dedicated bus lanes will serve domestic visitors parking at locations across the city.

    A hotel within the fenced Expo site is also nearing contract, with a design agreement close to signature. ERC says the intention is to give guests staying on site “the full experience from early morning when the gates open until late at night when the gates close” – an offer it expects will prove particularly popular with international visitors.

    Pavilions and vertical assets

    The Expo's masterplan is organised around five districts, each echoing one of the event’s sub-themes under its overarching theme of Foresight for Tomorrow: planet, people, technology, collaboration and culture. ERC is responsible for delivering a signature pavilion in each district, plus an iconic structure in the Global Collaboration district and a convention centre intended to serve both the event and Riyadh’s long-term conference market.

    The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) Pavilion, one of the centrepieces of the event, is also under ERC’s delivery responsibility. Design work is progressing across all these assets with engineering firms taking concepts through to schematic and detailed design.

    For international participating countries, this edition of the Expo marks a significant departure from previous editions. Rather than grouping lower-income countries into shared halls, all participants will have their own national pavilion.

    “In this edition, we are following the ‘one nation, one pavilion’ model, whereby each country has its own pavilion, and we have a dedicated budget to help up to 100 eligible countries deliver those pavilions,” says Murad Al-Sayed, ERC’s chief delivery officer.

    Contracting strategy

    The contracting approach for vertical assets is being calibrated to the complexity of each building. Less complex assets will be procured on a design-and-build basis.

    For the most complex – the KSA Pavilion and the iconic structure – ERC is using a two-stage model, separating enabling works and substructure from the main contract. This allows construction to begin on site while the main package is finalised and brings contractors into the design process earlier.

    “We are adopting different contracting strategies depending on the asset – its size, complexity and anticipated construction duration,” Al-Sayed says.

    For the KSA Pavilion, enabling and substructure works are already in the market, with an award targeted in Q3, allowing construction to start before the main contract – for which nine tier-one contractors, local and international, have been invited to bid – is awarded towards the end of the year. Packages for the remaining signature pavilions are expected to follow later this year and into 2027.

    On commercial terms, ERC is favouring lump-sum contracts where design maturity allows, with provisional sum or remeasurement provisions used where elements remain in development. A final public realm package, covering site-wide finishing works, remains under design and is expected to be tendered in 2026, sequenced deliberately to be installed last and once only ahead of the event.

    Bidding appetite from the market has been strong. ERC says all tenders issued to date have attracted healthy numbers of qualified bids, reflecting a contracting market that has eased over the past 18 months as several gigaprojects elsewhere in the kingdom have reached completion or had their timelines revised.

    Programme and supply chain

    ERC is targeting completion of major construction by the end of 2029, leaving six to nine months for finishing, snagging and operational testing. To ease the build programme for international participants, ERC is making plots available up to 36 months before the event – around nine to 12 months longer than the industry norm – giving countries more schedule float to complete their pavilions.

    On the supply chain, ERC is leaning heavily on local manufacturers for current infrastructure work, covering piping, cabling, electrical equipment and bulk materials. As construction moves above ground and international participants begin work on their pavilions from 2027 onwards, ERC will make its database of prequalified local contractors, suppliers and consultants available to them through a dedicated one-stop shop – a registration exercise already under way and expected to remain open until the event itself.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17664502/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Masdar reaches financial close on world-first 24/7 solar project

    14 July 2026

    Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) has reached financial close on the world's first gigascale round-the-clock renewable energy project, securing a $5.1bn financing package from a consortium of 13 international and local banks.

    The project, being developed in Abu Dhabi with state offtaker Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec), represents a total capital investment of $6.1bn, with Masdar providing $1bn of equity. It integrates a 5.2GW solar photovoltaic (PV) plant with a 19 gigawatt-hour battery energy storage system, which Masdar says is the largest of its kind in the world.

    The 13 lenders providing the financing are Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, France's BNP Paribas, Bank of China, France's Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, UK-based HSBC, Germany's KfW Ipex-Bank, France's Natixis, Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, UK-based Standard Chartered Bank and France's Societe Generale.

    The independent power project is designed to deliver 1GW of baseload power around the clock, addressing the challenge of solar intermittency by pairing large-scale generation with battery storage. It is intended to serve large energy users requiring 24/7 clean electricity, including data centre operators and technology firms driving artificial intelligence deployment in the region.

    Ewec will act as offtaker under a long-term power purchase agreement, while private offtakers such as data centres will access electricity through back-to-back arrangements.

    India's Larsen & Toubro and Beijing-headquartered PowerChina are handling engineering, procurement and construction works, with PwC Middle East advising Ewec on financial structuring. China's CATL will supply the battery storage system, while Jinko Solar and JA Solar will each provide 2.6GW of PV modules.

    Masdar broke ground on the project in October 2025, and it is expected to be operational in 2027. The scheme will avoid 5.7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions a year and provide enough clean energy to power nearly half a million homes.

    The developer has a diversified portfolio of more than 65GW and has set a target of reaching 100GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17664609/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Jordan tenders IPP8 power project

    14 July 2026

    Jordan’s National Electric Power Company (Nepco) has issued a tender for a contract to develop the 700MW combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power project known as independent power project 8 (IPP8).

    Companies understood to have prequalified include France’s EDF, Saudi Arabia’s Acwa and Egypt’s Orascom Construction. Bids are due in July, although the market expects the closing date may be extended.

    MEED reported in November last year that Nepco had invited developers to submit prequalification documents for IPP8. The project will be developed on a build, own and operate (BOO) basis and will supply power to the national grid under a 25-year agreement.

    Natural gas will serve as the primary fuel, with light distillate as backup. The facility will be connected to Nepco’s 132kV/400kV transmission infrastructure, which will be built separately.

    In April, MEED reported that Nepco had signed an agreement to establish a natural gas supply point for the 700MW IPP7. The agreement was signed with Fajr Jordanian-Egyptian for Natural Gas Transmission and Supply to support fuel provision for the CCGT plant.

    The plant will be developed in partnership with Etihad Development Company, a subsidiary of the UAE’s Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE), following recent approval by the Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources.

    The IPP7 plant is expected to meet about 10% of Jordan’s electricity demand once operational. It is also intended to enhance the reliability and efficiency of the national power system.

    The project is scheduled to become operational between 2027 and 2028.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17662814/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Indian firm wins Oman’s Al-Dhahirah economic zone deal

    14 July 2026

    Oman Shapoorji Company, the local branch of India's Shapoorji Pallonji, has won an estimated $67m contract to construct an administrative and commercial buildings complex within the Economic Zone at Al-Dhahirah (Ezad).

    The scope of work includes the construction of an administration building, a commercial centre, a hotel and a health centre.

    The scope also covers the construction of roads, sewers and water, irrigation and landscaping works.

    Oman’s Public Authority for Special Economic Zones & Free Zones (Opaz) tendered the contract.

    In July last year, MEED reported that Opaz had signed seven agreements and memorandums of understanding (MoUs) for the first phase of development of Ezad.

    The zone is located in Al-Dhahirah Governorate in northwestern Oman, on the sultanate’s borders with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Oman’s Finance Ministry and the Saudi Fund for Development signed an MoU in February 2023 to jointly invest $320m in developing Ezad.

    Among the agreements was a contract awarded by Opaz for the construction of main roads and the surface water drainage system at Ezad, valued at $58m. A consortium of Omani and Saudi contractors won the contract, which had a duration of 24 months.

    Opaz awarded two further contracts for engineering consultancy work to Oman-based Al-Watanyiah United Engineering and Saudi Arabia’s Dar Al-Riyadh. As part of their contracts, both firms were to prepare architectural, structural and infrastructure designs for projects in Ezad; provide technical advice; perform feasibility studies; and assist with approvals.

    Opaz intends to develop 20 square kilometres (sq km) of the total land area allocated to Ezad as part of the first phase of development, with 7.5 sq km of that earmarked for fast-track development.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17661726/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal