meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Uncertainty and instability damage Libyan oil sector optimism

24 February 2025

 

Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

Optimism among stakeholders in Libya’s oil and gas sector has evaporated in recent months as the approval of the country’s budget has been delayed and instability has undermined operations at state-owned oil and gas companies.

In early February, the UN Support Mission in Libya (Unsmil) called for all the conflicting parties in the North African country to start work immediately on agreeing on a unified state budget.

It said a transparent and equitable budget is crucial for strengthening fiscal responsibility, optimising resource allocation and ensuring economic stability in Libya.

Unified budget

A unified budget is also expected to enhance the ability of the Central Bank of Libya to implement effective monetary policies, stabilise the exchange rate and manage public spending sustainably.

Several meetings have been held to attempt to reach an approval on a unified budget for 2025, but little progress has been made by Libya’s rival political factions towards reaching an agreement.

In December, Stephanie Koury, acting UN special representative for Libya, said: “A unified budget is essential to establish clear spending limits and ensure transparent management of public resources.”

Libya’s oil and gas industry is one of the most important sectors, in terms of generating government revenues, that has been impacted by the budget delays.

One industry source said: “If a unified budget isn’t approved within the next 30 days, the consequences are going to be very serious.

“You can forget about all of the progress that has been made in the country’s oil and gas sector over the last two or three years – we are going to set right back to square one.”

Without a budget being approved, state-owned oil companies are struggling to push forward with their investment plans and the development of projects.

Licensing round

As well as ongoing delays to projects and approvals in Libya’s oil and gas sector, the country’s plans for its first oil and gas licensing round in 15 years are being delayed.

In January 2024, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced its plan to launch the round.

The bid round for exploration and production agreements was expected to offer exploration blocks in the Murzuq, Ghadames and Sirte basins.

As well as ongoing delays to projects and approvals in Libya’s oil and gas sector, the country’s plans for its first oil and gas licensing round in 15 years are being delayed.

Throughout much of 2024, there was significant optimism that the round would be launched without major delays and that it could support the country’s plans to boost oil and gas production.

In 2024, NOC announced a plan to execute 45 greenfield and brownfield projects to try to boost the country’s oil production from 1.25 million barrels a day (b/d) to 2 million b/d.

Libya is aiming to hit its 2 million b/d target within three years.

It was initially expected that the planned licensing round would be launched in late October or early November of 2024.

However, in October, delays started to be announced – and now stakeholders have significant doubts about whether the round will be launched before the end of 2025.

The budget delays and other ongoing disagreements between the country’s rival political factions are damaging the image of the country’s oil and gas sector and are likely to make international companies less interested in participating in the bidding round, if it is eventually launched.

One industry source said: “In the middle of last year, a lot of big international companies were showing interest, but now it is all negativity.

“People were talking about the licensing round and new projects, as well as expanding existing projects.

“Now, all of those discussions have evaporated.”

Sentiment is also being damaged by clashes in the country.

In 2024, there were several violent clashes between militias, including in Zawiya in July.

These were followed by further hostilities in the same region in December, which occurred next to the Zawiya refinery and caused a major fire at the facility.

Oil sector leadership

Instability in Libya’s oil and gas sector has been exacerbated by major changes in senior positions within the country’s publicly owned oil and gas companies and the oil ministry.

In June 2024, Libya's sidelined oil minister Mohamed Oun called on Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibeh to clarify who was in charge of the ministry.

Exactly who ran the oil ministry became unclear after Oun returned to work on 28 May 2024, following the lifting of a temporary suspension by a state watchdog.

During his absence, Oun was replaced by oil ministry undersecretary Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadek, who represented Libya at an Opec+ meeting on 2 June.

Oun complained that Dbeibeh refused to recognise him as oil minister after his return to work, and Oun then cut off all communication with him, making it impossible to carry out his duties.

Oun was ultimately officially replaced by Abdulsadek, who continues to run the ministry.

NOC has seen other major changes. The resignation of chairman Farhat Bengdara was accepted in January and he has been replaced by acting chairman Massoud Suleman.

NOC subsidiaries have also seen tumultuous changes in recent months.

In mid-February, the chairman of Libya’s state-owned Waha Oil Company, Fathi Ben-Zahia, was detained on several charges, sparking concerns about the future of oil and gas projects in the country.

Waha is one of the biggest and most active subsidiaries of NOC and is responsible for some of the country’s biggest active oil projects.

The charges against Ben-Zahia include a LD770m ($156m) contract fraud, according to a statement issued by the country’s Attorney General’s Office.

The statement said that preliminary research by the attorney general’s deputy public prosecutor had revealed that the Waha chairman had awarded a contract worth LD770m for sea defences at the Sidra oil port, when a lower bid of LD339m was submitted by another company competing for the contract.

Prior to the arrest of Ben-Zahia, Waha was seen as one of the best-performing state oil companies in the country.

In November last year, Waha Oil Company reported its highest crude production level in 11 years.

The company recorded a daily output of 350,549 barrels, contributing to Libya’s total daily production of 1.4 million barrels.

Private sector

While the country’s public sector oil companies have run into more problems in recent months, and struggled to deal with issues related to the delays to the unified budget, Libya's first private company to export oil has seen significant growth.

Arkenu Oil Company, which was set up in 2023 and is linked to the faction that controls eastern Libya, has exported oil worth at least $600m since May 2024, according to shipping records and UN experts.

According to experts, this means that some of the country's oil revenue is likely being channelled away from the central bank.

One industry source said: “The activities of Arkenu Oil Company are worrying because it shows that institutions like NOC and the central bank are losing their grip on the country’s oil and gas sector.”

Economic problems

Projects in Libya are also suffering from broader economic issues that could get a lot worse if there are further delays to the approval of a unified budget for 2025.

NOC is already suffering from major cash flow issues that will be exacerbated by further delays.

It is also likely that value of the Libyan dinar against the US dollar on the black market will be weakened, and more pressure will be put on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Further currency weakness is likely to make it harder to import materials and equipment for new projects, as well as making it more difficult to get spare parts for existing facilities.

One source said: “Right now, the dialogue about oil and gas projects in Libya is changing dramatically.

“Before, we were talking about which new projects were going to get developed and how quickly. Now, we are no longer talking about new projects and there are concerns that existing facilities will face major problems.”

The ongoing challenges in Libya, and the failure to deal with key issues, means that in the future the country could see declines in upstream production rates and refinery throughput, rather than the expansions that were previously expected.

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13419239/main.jpg
Wil Crisp

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • UAE to withdraw from Opec and Opec+ alliance

    28 April 2026

    The UAE has announced its decision to withdraw from Opec and the Opec+ alliance from 1 May.

    In a statement, the UAE Ministry of Energy said the move followed a “comprehensive review” of its production policy.

    “While near-term volatility, including disruptions in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, continues to affect supply dynamics, underlying trends point to sustained growth in global energy demand over the medium to long term,” the statement, issued on 28 April, said.

    “This decision follows decades of constructive cooperation. The UAE joined Opec in 1967 through the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and continued its membership following the formation of the United Arab Emirates in 1971. Throughout this period, the UAE has played an active role in supporting global oil market stability and strengthening dialogue among producing nations.”

    The announcement was timed to coincide with an Opec ministerial meeting in Vienna and was communicated through state news agency Wam.

    Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has set a target of raising production capacity to 5 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2027 – up from a current capacity of around 4.85 million b/d, though the country has been constrained to producing approximately 3.4 million b/d under Opec+ quota agreements.

    Membership of a quota-constrained group sits uneasily with that ambition. The non-oil economy now accounts for roughly 75% of the UAE’s GDP, reducing the political cost of rupture with the organisation.

    The Iran war wiped out 7.88 million b/d of Opec production in March, cutting group output 27% to 20.79 million b/d – the steepest supply collapse in the organisation’s recorded history, exceeding the Covid-19 demand shock of May 2020 and the disruptions of both the 1970s oil crisis and the 1991 Gulf War. Gulf producers have been struggling to route exports through the Strait of Hormuz amid Iranian threats and attacks on vessels, further straining the group’s cohesion.

    Against that backdrop, the UAE’s departure deals a significant blow to Opec and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, which has sought to project unity despite persistent internal disagreements over quotas and geopolitics.

    The US-Israeli war on Iran since late February has had a detrimental effect on a number of Gulf states, including the UAE.

    The UAE was targeted by thousands of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, damaging strategic oil and gas facilities, denting Dubai’s appeal as a luxury tourism hotspot and slowing oil exports to a trickle.

    Whereas some Gulf states have urged dialogue with Iran, the UAE has maintained a more hawkish position. Analysts say that position is partially due to its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports and the UAE’s unwillingness to see Iran cement itself as a regional power in the Gulf.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16596229/main.gif
    Indrajit Sen
  • NWC tenders package 14 of sewage treatment programme

    28 April 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s National Water Company (NWC) has tendered a contract for the construction of 10 sewage treatment plants as part of the next phase of its long-term operations and maintenance (LTOM) sewage treatment programme.

    According to the original scope, the Eastern A Cluster (LTOM14) package will have a total treatment capacity of 184,440 cubic metres a day (cm/d) at an estimated cost of $180m.

    The bid submission deadline is 30 September.

    The tender follows recent contract awards for North Western A Cluster Sewage Treatment Plants Package 11 (LTOM11) and the Northern Cluster Sewage Treatment Plants Package 10 (LTOM10).

    MEED exclusively reported that a consortium comprising China’s Jiangsu United Water Technology, the UAE’s Prosus Energy and Saudi Arabia’s Armada Holding had been appointed as a contractor for each of these projects.

    Package 11 will have a combined capacity of about 440,000 cm/d at an estimated cost of about SR211m ($56.3m).

    Package 12 will have a combined treatment capacity of 337,800 cm/d at an estimated cost of about SR203m ($54.1m).

    In April, NWC also opened finanical bids for North Western B Cluster (LTOM12) of its sewage treatment programme.

    The contract covers the construction and upgrade of seven sewage treatment plants with a combined capacity of about 162,000 cm/d.

    MEED previously reported that the following companies had submitted proposals:

    • Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (Saudi Arabia)
    • Civil Works Company (Saudi Arabia)
    • Miahona (Saudi Arabia)
    • Beijing Enterprises Water Group – BEWG (Hong Kong)
    • Al-Yamama (Saudi Arabia)

    These bids are currently under evaluaton, with an award expected in the coming weeks, a source said.

    The tender for the North Western C Cluster (LTOM13) project had been put on hold, although it is understood that this is now likely to be the next package to be tendered.

    Under the original scope, this package covers the construction of 10 sewage treatment plants.

    In total, the LTOM programme comprises 19 packages split into two phases. This contract for LTOM10 was the first to be awarded under the second phase of NWC’s rehabilitation of sewage treatment plants programme.

    As MEED understands, there have been several discussions in recent months regarding changes in scope details and potential expansions. This involves potentially grouping some upcoming projects.

    NWC previously awarded $2.5bn-worth of contracts in the first phase. This comprises nine packages covering the treatment of 4.6 million cm/d of sewage water for the next 15 years. Phase two of the programme includes 10 packages covering 117 treatment plants.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16591851/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Construction begins on Aman Dubai Hotel and Residences

    28 April 2026

    Dubai-based developer H&H Development and Switzerland’s Aman Group have broken ground on the Aman Dubai Hotel and Residences project in Dubai’s Jumeirah area.

    The project’s enabling works contract has been awarded to local firm Swissboring.

    Foundation works are expected to start this quarter.

    The developers said ground improvement works have now been completed. Another local firm, DBB Contracting, carried out the works.

    The project comprises a hotel, 78 branded residences and villas.

    Singapore-headquartered architectural firm Kerry Hill Architects is the project consultant.

    Dubai real estate developments continue to dominate the UAE’s construction market, with schemes worth more than $323bn either under execution or in planning.

    This aligns with a GlobalData forecast that the UAE construction sector will grow by 3% in real terms in 2026, supported by infrastructure, energy and utilities, and residential projects.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16591687/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Regional war deepens Kuwait oil sector’s tender crisis

    28 April 2026

    Commentary
    Wil Crisp
    Oil & gas reporter

    Contractors in Kuwait expect the regional conflict and disruption to shipping to worsen the country’s existing oil and gas tendering problems, causing long-term disruption in the sector.

    In the months prior to the US and Israel attacking Iran on 28 February, contract tenders worth an estimated $9.1bn were cancelled after bids came in above the projects’ allocated budgets.

    Contractors largely blamed the cancellations on long delays to tender processes after budgets had been set.

    The delays, which often extended for several years, meant inflation drove up the cost of materials and labour, making it almost impossible for contractors to submit bids within the original budgets.

    One industry source said: “The reason all of these contracts were cancelled was because the tender processes for large projects had started moving again after stalling for a long time.

    “Bids came in and unfortunately they were over budget. It was then expected that tender processes would restart and these projects would ultimately be awarded – but now the war means that Kuwait is facing a whole new wave of project delays and nobody knows when it is going to end.”

    War impact

    Many industry insiders believe delays caused by the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will once again seriously disrupt projects, just as many stakeholders believed the country was about to see an uptick in project progress.

    One source said: “Bid bonds are going to have to be renewed and some bidders might just use that as an opportunity to drop out of the bidding process.

    “It’s also possible that work that has already been done, like feasibility studies, will no longer be relevant and will have to be repeated.”

    2025 rebound

    Last year, Kuwait recorded its highest total annual value for oil, gas and chemicals contract awards since 2017, according to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects.

    A total of 19 contract awards with a combined value of $1.9bn were awarded.

    This was more than four times the value of contract awards across the same sectors in 2024, when awards were worth just $436m.

    It was also above the $1.7bn peak recorded in 2021, but it remained far lower than the values seen in 2014-17, when several large-scale, multibillion-dollar projects were awarded in the country.

    The surge in the value of contract awards came after Kuwait’s emir indefinitely dissolved parliament and suspended some of the country’s constitutional articles in May 2024.

    Prior to the suspension of parliament, Kuwait suffered from very low levels of project awards for several years amid political gridlock and infighting between the cabinet and parliament.

    This meant important decisions about projects could not be made – a major obstacle to the progression of strategic oil projects.

    Forward outlook

    With several major oil and gas projects under development in late 2025 and early 2026, some expected 2026 to record a far higher volume of oil and gas contract awards than 2025.

    Projects expected to be tendered – and potentially awarded – this year included a $3.3bn onshore production facility due to be developed next to the Al-Zour refinery.

    This project has already been delayed and put on hold as a result of fallout from the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran.

    Had it been awarded, it would have been the biggest single oil and gas contract award in Kuwait in more than 10 years.

    Now, as a result of the conflict, many of the large tenders expected to take place this year are likely to be significantly delayed.

    One source said: “Right now, everyone in the oil and gas sector is waiting for some sort of sign of improving stability before they make a decision and there’s a lot of uncertainty.

    “The state-owned oil companies aren’t communicating with contractors like they normally do and the price of a lot of materials has increased dramatically.”

    Even if the standoff between the US and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz is resolved in the near future, it is likely to take months or years before Kuwait’s oil and gas project market regains the momentum it had at the beginning of 2026.

    Given the lack of flexibility within Kuwait’s existing tendering system, delays can easily lead to tenders being cancelled, and the conflict’s inflationary impact will make it even harder for contractors to meet budgets set before the latest disruption.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16590560/main0421.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Partners launch feed-to-EPC contest for Duqm petchems project

    27 April 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Omani state energy conglomerate OQ Group and Kuwait Petroleum International (KPI), the overseas subsidiary of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, have initiated a feed-to-EPC competition among contractors to develop a major petrochemicals complex at Duqm.

    Under a feed-to-EPC model, the project operator selects contractors to carry out front-end engineering and design (feed). It then awards the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to the contractor with the most competitive feed proposal, while compensating the other contestants for their work.

    OQ8, the 50:50 joint venture of OQ and KPI, is understood to have issued the tender for the Duqm petrochemicals project’s feed-to-EPC competition in mid-March, with a deadline of 6 May for contractors to submit proposals, sources told MEED.

    Several local and international contractors based in Oman are believed to be participating in the competition, according to sources.

    OQ Group CEO Ashraf Bin Hamad Al-Maamari and KPI’s CEO Shafi Bin Taleb Al-Ajmi signed an agreement on 3 February, during the Kuwait Oil & Gas Show and Conference, to develop a major petrochemicals-producing complex in Oman’s Duqm. The parties did not disclose details at the time.

    ALSO READ: Duqm petrochemicals revival provides fillip to Gulf projects market

    The agreement represented a significant step forward in Oman and Kuwait’s long-held plans to jointly develop a petrochemicals complex next to the existing Duqm refinery, which will benefit from favourable feedstock access and strong cost competitiveness.

    The planned facility will also benefit from  in Al-Wusta governorate, along Oman’s Arabian Sea coastline.

    OQ8 had struggled to make meaningful progress on the Duqm petrochemicals project since the plan was conceived as early as 2018, for a variety of reasons.

    The original plan for the Duqm petrochemicals facility, estimated at $7bn, centred on a mixed-feed steam cracker with a capacity to produce 1.6 million tonnes a year (t/y) of ethylene. The project also included a polypropylene (PP) plant with a capacity of 280,000 t/y and a high-density polyethylene (HDPE) plant with a capacity of 480,000 t/y.

    The complex was also expected to include an aromatics plant, as well as storage facilities for naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

    The project’s prospects were temporarily boosted when Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) expressed interest in investing by signing a non-binding memorandum of understanding with OQ in December 2021.

    Reuters reported in December that Sabic was withdrawing from the project, leaving OQ to look for other partners. The new agreement between OQ and KPI is understood to have followed the Saudi chemical giant’s departure.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577785/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen