meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Uncertainty and instability damage Libyan oil sector optimism

24 February 2025

 

Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

Optimism among stakeholders in Libya’s oil and gas sector has evaporated in recent months as the approval of the country’s budget has been delayed and instability has undermined operations at state-owned oil and gas companies.

In early February, the UN Support Mission in Libya (Unsmil) called for all the conflicting parties in the North African country to start work immediately on agreeing on a unified state budget.

It said a transparent and equitable budget is crucial for strengthening fiscal responsibility, optimising resource allocation and ensuring economic stability in Libya.

Unified budget

A unified budget is also expected to enhance the ability of the Central Bank of Libya to implement effective monetary policies, stabilise the exchange rate and manage public spending sustainably.

Several meetings have been held to attempt to reach an approval on a unified budget for 2025, but little progress has been made by Libya’s rival political factions towards reaching an agreement.

In December, Stephanie Koury, acting UN special representative for Libya, said: “A unified budget is essential to establish clear spending limits and ensure transparent management of public resources.”

Libya’s oil and gas industry is one of the most important sectors, in terms of generating government revenues, that has been impacted by the budget delays.

One industry source said: “If a unified budget isn’t approved within the next 30 days, the consequences are going to be very serious.

“You can forget about all of the progress that has been made in the country’s oil and gas sector over the last two or three years – we are going to set right back to square one.”

Without a budget being approved, state-owned oil companies are struggling to push forward with their investment plans and the development of projects.

Licensing round

As well as ongoing delays to projects and approvals in Libya’s oil and gas sector, the country’s plans for its first oil and gas licensing round in 15 years are being delayed.

In January 2024, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced its plan to launch the round.

The bid round for exploration and production agreements was expected to offer exploration blocks in the Murzuq, Ghadames and Sirte basins.

As well as ongoing delays to projects and approvals in Libya’s oil and gas sector, the country’s plans for its first oil and gas licensing round in 15 years are being delayed.

Throughout much of 2024, there was significant optimism that the round would be launched without major delays and that it could support the country’s plans to boost oil and gas production.

In 2024, NOC announced a plan to execute 45 greenfield and brownfield projects to try to boost the country’s oil production from 1.25 million barrels a day (b/d) to 2 million b/d.

Libya is aiming to hit its 2 million b/d target within three years.

It was initially expected that the planned licensing round would be launched in late October or early November of 2024.

However, in October, delays started to be announced – and now stakeholders have significant doubts about whether the round will be launched before the end of 2025.

The budget delays and other ongoing disagreements between the country’s rival political factions are damaging the image of the country’s oil and gas sector and are likely to make international companies less interested in participating in the bidding round, if it is eventually launched.

One industry source said: “In the middle of last year, a lot of big international companies were showing interest, but now it is all negativity.

“People were talking about the licensing round and new projects, as well as expanding existing projects.

“Now, all of those discussions have evaporated.”

Sentiment is also being damaged by clashes in the country.

In 2024, there were several violent clashes between militias, including in Zawiya in July.

These were followed by further hostilities in the same region in December, which occurred next to the Zawiya refinery and caused a major fire at the facility.

Oil sector leadership

Instability in Libya’s oil and gas sector has been exacerbated by major changes in senior positions within the country’s publicly owned oil and gas companies and the oil ministry.

In June 2024, Libya's sidelined oil minister Mohamed Oun called on Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibeh to clarify who was in charge of the ministry.

Exactly who ran the oil ministry became unclear after Oun returned to work on 28 May 2024, following the lifting of a temporary suspension by a state watchdog.

During his absence, Oun was replaced by oil ministry undersecretary Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadek, who represented Libya at an Opec+ meeting on 2 June.

Oun complained that Dbeibeh refused to recognise him as oil minister after his return to work, and Oun then cut off all communication with him, making it impossible to carry out his duties.

Oun was ultimately officially replaced by Abdulsadek, who continues to run the ministry.

NOC has seen other major changes. The resignation of chairman Farhat Bengdara was accepted in January and he has been replaced by acting chairman Massoud Suleman.

NOC subsidiaries have also seen tumultuous changes in recent months.

In mid-February, the chairman of Libya’s state-owned Waha Oil Company, Fathi Ben-Zahia, was detained on several charges, sparking concerns about the future of oil and gas projects in the country.

Waha is one of the biggest and most active subsidiaries of NOC and is responsible for some of the country’s biggest active oil projects.

The charges against Ben-Zahia include a LD770m ($156m) contract fraud, according to a statement issued by the country’s Attorney General’s Office.

The statement said that preliminary research by the attorney general’s deputy public prosecutor had revealed that the Waha chairman had awarded a contract worth LD770m for sea defences at the Sidra oil port, when a lower bid of LD339m was submitted by another company competing for the contract.

Prior to the arrest of Ben-Zahia, Waha was seen as one of the best-performing state oil companies in the country.

In November last year, Waha Oil Company reported its highest crude production level in 11 years.

The company recorded a daily output of 350,549 barrels, contributing to Libya’s total daily production of 1.4 million barrels.

Private sector

While the country’s public sector oil companies have run into more problems in recent months, and struggled to deal with issues related to the delays to the unified budget, Libya's first private company to export oil has seen significant growth.

Arkenu Oil Company, which was set up in 2023 and is linked to the faction that controls eastern Libya, has exported oil worth at least $600m since May 2024, according to shipping records and UN experts.

According to experts, this means that some of the country's oil revenue is likely being channelled away from the central bank.

One industry source said: “The activities of Arkenu Oil Company are worrying because it shows that institutions like NOC and the central bank are losing their grip on the country’s oil and gas sector.”

Economic problems

Projects in Libya are also suffering from broader economic issues that could get a lot worse if there are further delays to the approval of a unified budget for 2025.

NOC is already suffering from major cash flow issues that will be exacerbated by further delays.

It is also likely that value of the Libyan dinar against the US dollar on the black market will be weakened, and more pressure will be put on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Further currency weakness is likely to make it harder to import materials and equipment for new projects, as well as making it more difficult to get spare parts for existing facilities.

One source said: “Right now, the dialogue about oil and gas projects in Libya is changing dramatically.

“Before, we were talking about which new projects were going to get developed and how quickly. Now, we are no longer talking about new projects and there are concerns that existing facilities will face major problems.”

The ongoing challenges in Libya, and the failure to deal with key issues, means that in the future the country could see declines in upstream production rates and refinery throughput, rather than the expansions that were previously expected.

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13419239/main.jpg
Wil Crisp

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • War takes a rising toll on Kuwait’s oil sector

    6 April 2026

    Commentary
    Wil Crisp
    Oil & gas reporter

    The US and Israel’s ongoing war on Iran is taking a rising toll on Kuwait’s oil sector, which is likely to be felt for years, even if the war concludes relatively quickly.

    The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping has meant that Kuwaiti oil exports have completely stopped, forcing the country to declare force majeure last month.

    The inability to export oil has led storage facilities to reach maximum capacity and forced Kuwait to stop production completely at key oil fields.

    Resuming production from these assets is not likely to be easy, and production from these fields could take months to ramp up to normal levels even if shipping is allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz freely.

    The blockage in the Strait of Hormuz has also prevented Kuwaitis from importing equipment and materials to carry out maintenance work or projects in the oil and gas sector.

    On top of the severe negative impacts caused by the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s energy sector is seeing increasing damage to oil and gas facilities from Iranian strikes.

    Over the past few days, a wide range of Kuwaiti oil and gas infrastructure has been hit and damaged.

    This includes strikes on Kuwait’s Al-Ahmadi oil refinery, one of the biggest in the Middle East, which was attacked on 5 April, causing fires in a “number of operational units”.

    If future operations at the refinery are limited by damage to the facility, it could potentially lead to much lower volumes of refined products being available both on the domestic market and for export.

    On 5 April, Iran also struck facilities operated by Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC) and Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC), both subsidiaries of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC).

    On the same day, the building that houses the headquarters of KPC and the country’s Oil Ministry was also hit, causing a fire.

    In a statement released on 5 April, KPC said that assessments of the damage to the office building, as well as to the PIC and KNPC facilities, were ongoing.

    If the damage to the PIC and KNPC facilities is significant, it could further reduce Kuwait’s refining capacity and erode the country’s petrochemical production capacity.

    This, in turn, would negatively impact the oil and gas sector’s ability to generate future revenues.

    As the war continues, it is likely that damage to oil and gas infrastructure will continue to mount, further eroding the country’s ability to return quickly to normal operations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16265361/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait reports war damage on oil infrastructure

    6 April 2026

    State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) has said that some units have sustained significant damage following Iranian strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in recent days.

    Strikes hit facilities operated by its subsidiaries Petrochemical Industries Company (PIC) and Kuwait National Petroleum ​Company (KNPC).

    Strikes also hit the offices of KPC and the Oil Ministry, as well as power and water desalination plants.

    In a statement released on 5 April, KPC said: “On 5 April, 2026, the oil sector complex located in Shuwaikh, which houses the KPC building and the Ministry of Oil, was attacked by drones, resulting in a fire at the building and significant material damage.

    “Several operational facilities belonging to the corporation, both at KNPC [sites] and PIC [sites], were also subjected to similar drone attacks, leading to fires at a number of these facilities, and causing significant material damage.

    “Emergency and firefighting teams from the concerned companies, with the support of the General Fire Force, implemented the approved response plans.

    “The teams continue to work to control the fires and prevent their spread to adjacent facilities.

    “The corporation confirmed, thanks be to God, that no human casualties were recorded as a result of these attacks.”

    In a television address, Hisham Ahmed Al-Rifai, a spokesperson for the company, said that the offices of KPC and the Oil Ministry were targeted at dawn on 5 April.

    He called the attack “reprehensible” and said that Iran used drones to carry it out.

    Al-Rifai said that KPC is still assessing damage to the office building and to the PIC and KNPC facilities.

    The past few days have seen significant damage dealt to a range of oil and gas infrastructure.

    On 3 April, early-morning strikes hit Kuwait’s Al-Ahmadi oil refinery, causing fires in a “number of operational units”.

    The strikes on 3 April were the third time that the refinery had been hit since the regional conflict started.

    The refining facility is one of the largest in the Middle East and is an important source of refined products for both the domestic market and exports.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16265360/main.gif
    Wil Crisp
  • Safety and security matters

    3 April 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Read the April issue of MEED Business Review

    Employment and investment opportunities in a low or no-tax environment have been key attractions for people and businesses located in the GCC for decades. Another crucial factor has been safety and security.

    That reputation has been tested by the missile and drone attacks that began on 28 February. Whether the GCC’s safe haven status has been damaged depends on perspective. 

    For some, the fact that attacks occurred fundamentally changes how the region is viewed. For others, the ability to absorb a serious shock, respond quickly, and keep daily life and businesses functioning demonstrates resilience.

    Any assessment of safety is also relative. Many people and businesses that relocate in the GCC do so not only for opportunity, but because of dissatisfaction elsewhere. Common reasons include limited economic prospects, high taxation, distrust in political leadership and concerns about personal safety. Even with the recent conflict, the GCC may still compare favourably for those considering these factors.

    There is no doubt that missile and drone attacks are extremely dangerous, and the fear of further incidents can linger. Even if attacks are infrequent, the uncertainty matters. It can influence personal decisions, travel advice, and the cost of insurance and risk management. These perceptions will shape the region’s attractiveness.

    Safety concerns vary. In many parts of the world, higher levels of crime are an everyday worry for residents and businesses. For some, the GCC may still feel like the better option, provided the current tensions do not become the new normal.

    How this question is answered will play an important role in how the region’s economies perform in the period ahead. If confidence returns quickly and the risk is seen as contained and manageable, investment and hiring will likely rebound faster than many expect. If uncertainty persists or escalates, the road to recovery will be a long one.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16250747/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Saudi forecast remains one of growth

    3 April 2026

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16250096/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Dubai seeks consultants for Al-Khawaneej stormwater project

    3 April 2026

    Dubai Municipality has issued a consultancy tender to assess and upgrade the stormwater drainage system serving the Al-Khawaneej First residential district in northeastern Dubai.

    The project, listed as TF-22-E1, covers the upgrading and rehabilitation of the stormwater system in the area. The tender has been issued by the municipality’s Sewerage and Recycled Water Projects Department.

    The bid submission deadline is 23 April.

    The works form part of Dubai’s wider efforts to strengthen flood resilience and support sustainable urban infrastructure development.

    Two separate consultancy tenders were issued in March as part of a broader review of the emirate’s water and wastewater infrastructure to support future population growth.

    One involves a study to develop a sustainable urban drainage systems strategy across the emirate. The other covers a review of the emirate’s sewage treatment and recycled water distribution strategy. 

    The Al-Khawaneej First consultancy role will include data collection, site investigations and an assessment of existing drainage conditions.

    Additionally, the consultant will be required to identify flooding hotspots and evaluate the performance of the current system. 

    The project covers the preparation of preliminary and detailed designs, tender documents and construction packages as well as construction supervision through to project handover.

    The municipality added that integrated drainage solutions are to be developed as part of the package, including sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) and nature-based approaches to address current and future stormwater demand.

    READ THE APRIL 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Economic shock threatens long-term outlook; Riyadh adjusts to fiscal and geopolitical risk; GCC contractor ranking reflects gigaprojects slowdown.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the April 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > GCC CONTRACTOR RANKING: Construction guard undergoes a shift
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16249098/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall