meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

Uncertainty and instability damage Libyan oil sector optimism

24 February 2025

 

Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

Optimism among stakeholders in Libya’s oil and gas sector has evaporated in recent months as the approval of the country’s budget has been delayed and instability has undermined operations at state-owned oil and gas companies.

In early February, the UN Support Mission in Libya (Unsmil) called for all the conflicting parties in the North African country to start work immediately on agreeing on a unified state budget.

It said a transparent and equitable budget is crucial for strengthening fiscal responsibility, optimising resource allocation and ensuring economic stability in Libya.

Unified budget

A unified budget is also expected to enhance the ability of the Central Bank of Libya to implement effective monetary policies, stabilise the exchange rate and manage public spending sustainably.

Several meetings have been held to attempt to reach an approval on a unified budget for 2025, but little progress has been made by Libya’s rival political factions towards reaching an agreement.

In December, Stephanie Koury, acting UN special representative for Libya, said: “A unified budget is essential to establish clear spending limits and ensure transparent management of public resources.”

Libya’s oil and gas industry is one of the most important sectors, in terms of generating government revenues, that has been impacted by the budget delays.

One industry source said: “If a unified budget isn’t approved within the next 30 days, the consequences are going to be very serious.

“You can forget about all of the progress that has been made in the country’s oil and gas sector over the last two or three years – we are going to set right back to square one.”

Without a budget being approved, state-owned oil companies are struggling to push forward with their investment plans and the development of projects.

Licensing round

As well as ongoing delays to projects and approvals in Libya’s oil and gas sector, the country’s plans for its first oil and gas licensing round in 15 years are being delayed.

In January 2024, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced its plan to launch the round.

The bid round for exploration and production agreements was expected to offer exploration blocks in the Murzuq, Ghadames and Sirte basins.

As well as ongoing delays to projects and approvals in Libya’s oil and gas sector, the country’s plans for its first oil and gas licensing round in 15 years are being delayed.

Throughout much of 2024, there was significant optimism that the round would be launched without major delays and that it could support the country’s plans to boost oil and gas production.

In 2024, NOC announced a plan to execute 45 greenfield and brownfield projects to try to boost the country’s oil production from 1.25 million barrels a day (b/d) to 2 million b/d.

Libya is aiming to hit its 2 million b/d target within three years.

It was initially expected that the planned licensing round would be launched in late October or early November of 2024.

However, in October, delays started to be announced – and now stakeholders have significant doubts about whether the round will be launched before the end of 2025.

The budget delays and other ongoing disagreements between the country’s rival political factions are damaging the image of the country’s oil and gas sector and are likely to make international companies less interested in participating in the bidding round, if it is eventually launched.

One industry source said: “In the middle of last year, a lot of big international companies were showing interest, but now it is all negativity.

“People were talking about the licensing round and new projects, as well as expanding existing projects.

“Now, all of those discussions have evaporated.”

Sentiment is also being damaged by clashes in the country.

In 2024, there were several violent clashes between militias, including in Zawiya in July.

These were followed by further hostilities in the same region in December, which occurred next to the Zawiya refinery and caused a major fire at the facility.

Oil sector leadership

Instability in Libya’s oil and gas sector has been exacerbated by major changes in senior positions within the country’s publicly owned oil and gas companies and the oil ministry.

In June 2024, Libya's sidelined oil minister Mohamed Oun called on Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibeh to clarify who was in charge of the ministry.

Exactly who ran the oil ministry became unclear after Oun returned to work on 28 May 2024, following the lifting of a temporary suspension by a state watchdog.

During his absence, Oun was replaced by oil ministry undersecretary Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadek, who represented Libya at an Opec+ meeting on 2 June.

Oun complained that Dbeibeh refused to recognise him as oil minister after his return to work, and Oun then cut off all communication with him, making it impossible to carry out his duties.

Oun was ultimately officially replaced by Abdulsadek, who continues to run the ministry.

NOC has seen other major changes. The resignation of chairman Farhat Bengdara was accepted in January and he has been replaced by acting chairman Massoud Suleman.

NOC subsidiaries have also seen tumultuous changes in recent months.

In mid-February, the chairman of Libya’s state-owned Waha Oil Company, Fathi Ben-Zahia, was detained on several charges, sparking concerns about the future of oil and gas projects in the country.

Waha is one of the biggest and most active subsidiaries of NOC and is responsible for some of the country’s biggest active oil projects.

The charges against Ben-Zahia include a LD770m ($156m) contract fraud, according to a statement issued by the country’s Attorney General’s Office.

The statement said that preliminary research by the attorney general’s deputy public prosecutor had revealed that the Waha chairman had awarded a contract worth LD770m for sea defences at the Sidra oil port, when a lower bid of LD339m was submitted by another company competing for the contract.

Prior to the arrest of Ben-Zahia, Waha was seen as one of the best-performing state oil companies in the country.

In November last year, Waha Oil Company reported its highest crude production level in 11 years.

The company recorded a daily output of 350,549 barrels, contributing to Libya’s total daily production of 1.4 million barrels.

Private sector

While the country’s public sector oil companies have run into more problems in recent months, and struggled to deal with issues related to the delays to the unified budget, Libya's first private company to export oil has seen significant growth.

Arkenu Oil Company, which was set up in 2023 and is linked to the faction that controls eastern Libya, has exported oil worth at least $600m since May 2024, according to shipping records and UN experts.

According to experts, this means that some of the country's oil revenue is likely being channelled away from the central bank.

One industry source said: “The activities of Arkenu Oil Company are worrying because it shows that institutions like NOC and the central bank are losing their grip on the country’s oil and gas sector.”

Economic problems

Projects in Libya are also suffering from broader economic issues that could get a lot worse if there are further delays to the approval of a unified budget for 2025.

NOC is already suffering from major cash flow issues that will be exacerbated by further delays.

It is also likely that value of the Libyan dinar against the US dollar on the black market will be weakened, and more pressure will be put on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Further currency weakness is likely to make it harder to import materials and equipment for new projects, as well as making it more difficult to get spare parts for existing facilities.

One source said: “Right now, the dialogue about oil and gas projects in Libya is changing dramatically.

“Before, we were talking about which new projects were going to get developed and how quickly. Now, we are no longer talking about new projects and there are concerns that existing facilities will face major problems.”

The ongoing challenges in Libya, and the failure to deal with key issues, means that in the future the country could see declines in upstream production rates and refinery throughput, rather than the expansions that were previously expected.

READ MEED’s YEARBOOK 2025

MEED’s 16th highly prized flagship Yearbook publication is available to read, offering subscribers analysis on the outlook for the Mena region’s major markets.

Published on 31 December 2024 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the MEED Yearbook 2025 includes:

> GIGAPROJECTS INDEX: Gigaproject spending finds a level
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13419239/main.jpg
Wil Crisp

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Solar deals signal Saudi Arabia’s energy ambitions

    13 February 2026

    Commentary
    Mark Dowdall
    Power & water editor

    Saudi Arabia’s recent agreement to build $2bn-worth of solar power plants in Turkiye is the latest sign that the kingdom’s energy influence is changing.

    Historically, this was measured in oil barrels and export volumes. Increasingly, this is extending to capital, structuring expertise and the ability to deliver record-low tariffs in competitive markets.

    Announcing the deal, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said tariffs for the plants would be the country’s lowest on record, with electricity purchased under 25-year power purchase agreements.

    It followed another announcement, in January, that Acwa is investing $200m to build a large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) plant in the Philippines.

    Whether Saudi-backed companies ultimately retain long-term stakes or primarily develop and build the assets, their role at the front end is significant.

    Sponsors that bring sovereign backing, clear procurement processes and access to low-cost financing can influence tariffs and contract terms from the outset.

    There is also a geopolitical layer. Investing in Turkiye, or anywhere for that matter, strengthens political and economic ties at a time when regional alignments are shifting.

    Energy infrastructure is also long-term by its nature. It connects ministries, regulators, lenders and operators in relationships that often extend well beyond a single transaction.

    Saudi Arabia has spent the past few years refining its approach to pricing, structuring and financing large-scale renewables at home.

    Exporting that expertise may not rival oil in scale or visibility, but it does signal that Saudi Arabia is becoming more than just an energy supplier.

    Increasingly, it is becoming a participant in how other countries design and finance their energy transitions. That influence is still significant.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15645903/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia appoints new investment minister

    13 February 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud has made a series of senior government changes, including Khalid Al-Falih leaving his role as investment minister to become minister of state and a member of the cabinet.

    Al-Falih has been replaced by Fahad Al-Saif as investment minister. Al-Saif has been head of the Investment Strategy and Economic Insights Division at the Public Investment Fund (PIF) since 2024. That role involved formulating PIF’s long-term investment strategy. He has also served as head of the Global Capital Finance Division, a role he has held since joining PIF in 2021.

    The change of investment minister comes at a time when securing investments has become a key priority for Saudi Arabia as it prepares to hand over more projects to the private sector for delivery.

    King Salman also named Abdullah Al-Maghlouth as vice-minister of media and Abdulmohsen Al-Mazyad as vice-minister of tourism. Khalid Al-Yousef was named attorney general, and Sheikh Ali Al-Ahaideb will serve as president of the Board of Grievances.

    Faihan Al-Sahli was selected as director general of the General Directorate of Investigation, while Abdulaziz Al-Arifi was chosen to lead the National Development Fund. Haytham Al-Ohali will head the Communications, Space and Technology Commission, and Fawaz Al-Sahli will chair the Transport General Authority.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15645415/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Indian firm wins major Oman substation contract

    12 February 2026

     

    India’s Larsen & Toubro has won a contract to build the Majan 400/220/132kV grid station in Oman.

    Estimated to cost $100m, the project includes an associated 400kV line-in line-out underground cable from Sohar Free Zone to the Sohar Interconnector Station.

    The contract was awarded by Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC), part of the government-owned Nama Group.

    The grid station will comprise eight 400kV gas-insulated switchgear (GIS) bays, eight 220kV GIS bays and 10 132kV GIS bays at the new Sohar Free Zone substation.

    The scope includes the installation of two 500MVA, 400/220kV transformers and two 500MVA, 220/132kV transformers.

    Local firm Monenco Consulting Engineers was appointed in April last year to provide design and supervision services for the project.

    As MEED exclusively revealed, the main contract was tendered in June, as part of three significant contracts to build new substations in the sultanate.

    The second contract, worth about $35m, covers the construction of the Sultan Haitham City 132/33kV grid station and associated 132kV line-in line-out underground cables running 4 kilometres from Mabella to Mabella Industrial Zone.

    The third contract, valued at about $100m, covers the construction of the Surab 400/33kV grid station and an associated 400kV line-in line-out cable from the Duqm grid station to the Mahout grid station. 

    Local firms Muscat Engineering Consulting and Hamed Engineering Services are consultants for the Sultan Haitham City and Surab projects, respectively.

    The two remaining contracts are currently under bid evaluation, with awards expected this quarter.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15638107/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Developers appoint contractor for $500m wastewater treatment project

    12 February 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Egypt’s Orascom Construction has won the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for a major wastewater treatment project in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

    A consortium of Saudi utilities provider Marafiq, the regional business of France’s Veolia and Bahrain/Saudi Arabia-based Lamar Holding is developing the $500m (SR1.875bn) industrial wastewater treatment plant (IWWTP) in Jubail Industrial City 2.

    Sources close to the project confirmed the appointment to MEED, adding that the project has now entered the construction phase.

    Industry sources also said that financial close on the project is expected to be reached in the coming days.

    In September, the developer consortium was awarded a contract, under a 30-year concession agreement, by Saudi Aramco Total Refining & Petrochemical Company (Satorp), a joint venture of Saudi Aramco and France’s TotalEnergies.

    The planned facility will treat and recycle wastewater from Satorp’s under-construction Amiral chemical derivatives complex, also in Jubail.

    Marafiq, formally Power & Water Utility Company for Jubail and Yanbu, will own a 40% stake in the dedicated project company. Veolia Middle East SAS will hold a 35% stake, and Lamar Holding’s Lamar Arabia for Energy will hold the other 25%.

    The planned IWWTP, which will primarily serve the $11bn sprawling Amiral chemicals zone, will implement advanced water treatment and recovery technologies to process complex industrial effluents, including spent caustic streams. Treated water will be reintegrated into the industrial processes, supporting closed-loop reuse and energy efficiency.

    The project follows a concession-style model, akin to a public-private partnership (PPP), where the developer consortium invests in, builds and operates the wastewater plant over a 30-year period, with returns linked to service delivery.

    Marafiq has been involved in several similar projects across Saudi Arabia, including as the sole owner of the Jubail industrial water treatment plant (IWTP8), which treats complex industrial effluents for petrochemical and heavy industrial companies.

    In 2020, Saudi Services for Electro Mechanic Works was awarded the $202m main contract for the fourth expansion phase of IWTP8. Construction works on the project are expected to be completed by the end of the quarter.

    READ THE FEBRUARY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Spending on oil and gas production surges; Doha’s efforts support extraordinary growth in 2026; Water sector regains momentum in 2025.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the February 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15637523/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Dewa raises Empower stake in $1.41bn deal

    12 February 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has announced it has increased its stake in Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (Empower) from 56% to 80%.

    The transaction was completed through the purchase of 2.4 billion shares and the transfer of the entire ownership of Emirates Power Investment (EPI), which is wholly owned by Dubai Holding.

    The total value of the deal is AED5.184bn ($1.41bn).

    Empower currently holds over 80% of Dubai’s district cooling market and operates 88 district cooling plants across the emirate.

    According to MEED Projects, the UAE’s district cooling sector currently has nine projects worth $1.29bn in the pre-execution phase.

    Empower has ownership in four of these projects, which have a combined value of $472m.

    This includes a $200 million district cooling plant at Dubai Science Park, with a total capacity of 47,000 refrigeration tonnes serving 80 buildings.

    Empower signed a contract to design the plant last August, with construction scheduled to begin by the end of the first quarter of 2026.

    The utility is also building a district cooling plant at Dubai Internet City.

    UAE-based TMF Euro Foundations was recently appointed as the enabling and piling subcontractor for the project.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15635949/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall