UAE maintains regional economic edge
14 January 2025
Heading into 2025, the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to maintain their significant lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index. These opportune markets sit alongside three of their GCC peers – Oman, Qatar and Kuwait – as economies whose real GDP is supported by relatively robust hydrocarbon revenues.
In 2025, the GCC economies are forecast to grow by an unweighted real GDP growth rate average of 3.3%, compared to just 1.4% in 2024, according to the latest IMF estimates. Across the countries featured in the index, the figure for 2025 was 3.2%, compared to 1.8% in 2024.
One significant reason for this uptick is the subsiding of the Red Sea shipping disruption. Risks remain, but a year of intensive maritime patrols by several international naval coalitions has reduced the risk to commercial vessels. The shipping route has not seen a sinking since the first half of 2024, and there has not been a serious incident involving a Houthi strike on a vessel since September.
At the same time, logistical workarounds by the commercial transport sector have mitigated the disruption and overall risk to regional trade activity.
In terms of the hydrocarbons sector, the IMF expects the average price of oil to be $72.84 a barrel in 2025, compared to $81.29 a barrel in 2024. Alongside continuing Opec+ restrictions on oil production, this points to a slight weakening of oil revenues this year. Government spending plans among the region’s oil exporters are unlikely to be duly affected in the short term however, as such variables have already been factored into near-term expenditures.
Strong lead
The UAE tops the January 2025 MEED Economic Activity Index, with a forecast real GDP growth rate of 4.5%, broad fiscal surplus and strong non-oil growth backed by the ongoing strengthening of its projects market, which saw the award of $82bn-worth of contracts in 2024. This value exceeded project completions in the market in 2024 by almost $50bn and sits well above the long-term average.
Looking ahead, there are projects worth an estimated $8bn in the bidding phase.
Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to grow by a similarly buoyant 4.6% in 2025. Although the kingdom is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year, this is largely a function of the government’s expansionary spending on strategic projects and development programmes.
Riyadh’s project spending hit new heights in 2024, with contract awards reaching a record value of $142bn and exceeding the value of project completions in the market by almost $90bn. The country also has an extraordinary $250bn-worth of project value currently under bid.
Moderate activity
Fellow GCC members Oman, Qatar and Kuwait follow in the index in a tight cluster, supported by real GDP forecasts in the 2-3% range, fiscal projections for top-line surpluses and moderate projects market activity.
Oman’s projects market is the most buoyant, with contract awards growing to $11bn in 2024 – double the $5.5bn in completions.
Qatar’s project award activity meanwhile dipped to $16bn in 2024, below the country’s long-term averages, though it still outpaced the $9bn in project completions last year.
Kuwait’s project activity grew from $6.3bn in awards in 2023 to $9bn in 2024, outpacing completions by $3.5bn and broadly matching long-term contract award averages.
All three countries have strong project pipelines, with $15bn-$25bn-worth of tenders each in the bidding phase.
Much improved
Morocco, Algeria and Iraq follow with sharply improved scores compared with mid-2024, in part due to more buoyant economic projections, including real GDP growth forecasts in the 3%-4% range in 2025.
Though weighed upon by serious fiscal imbalances, all three countries have strongly improved project markets, with contract awards surging from $2.4bn to $8bn in Morocco between 2023 and 2024, from $3.7bn to $21bn in Algeria, and from $14bn to $24bn in Iraq. The awards in all three countries also surpassed last year’s project completions and historic award averages.
Market stragglers
Bahrain comes next in the index as the lowest-performing GCC nation for reasons unrelated to its real GDP performance, which sits around 3%, but instead due to its fiscal and project sector weakness.
Manama is overspending, but not on critical infrastructure. The result is a projects sector that saw just $2.6bn-worth of awards in 2024, well below the $7.5bn in completions, which included the end of work on the $4bn Sitra Refinery, and below the $3.8bn long-term average.
The index is rounded out by Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, whose economic situations are all fragile.
Jordan has a 2.5% growth projection, but high fiscal imbalance and unemployment. Subdued project activity in the country barely recovered to long-term averages in 2024 – after a dismal performance in 2023 – due to a $1bn liquefied natural gas terminal contract award.
Egypt, while projected for 4.1% growth in 2025, is grappling with 30% inflation, a deep fiscal deficit and a contracting projects sector. There were $19bn of awards in 2024, falling below both the 2023 figure and the long-term average for the market.
Tunisia, with a growth projection of just 1.6%, is failing across most metrics as it continues to grapple with a political and economic crisis. The country’s projects activity is no exception, with the value of contract awards in 2024 falling below 25% of the long-term average.
ABOUT THE INDEX
MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.
Exclusive from Meed
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Dubai prequalifies developers for $22bn tunnels PPP
6 February 2025
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Iraq and GE Vernova complete plants upgrade
6 February 2025
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Bankability remains hydrogen’s unbreakable challenge
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Qatar maintains stable growth heading
6 February 2025
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Dubai prequalifies developers for $22bn tunnels PPP
6 February 2025
Dubai Municipality has prequalified developers for the first four packages of the $22bn Dubai Strategic Sewerage Tunnels (DSST) project.
According to industry sources, at least three companies have been prequalified as lead members of potential consortiums that can bid for the contracts.
These include:
- Etihad Water & Electricity subsidiary (local)
- Itochu (Japan)
- Vision Invest (Saudi Arabia)
Other companies have been prequalified as technical members.
MEED reported in October that over a dozen companies were keen to prequalify as investors or sponsors of the planned public-private partnership (PPP) project.
They included:
- Abrdn Investcorp Infrastructure Investments Manager (UK)
- Besix (Belgium)
- China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC)
- China Railway Engineering Group (CREG)
- China State Construction Engineering Corporation (China)
- Itochu (Japan)
- Nesma Company (Saudi Arabia)
- Plenary (Australia)
- Samsung C&T (South Korea)
- Vision Invest (Saudi Arabia)
- Webuild (Italy)
The request for proposals for the project's first two packages is expected to be issued imminently.
MEED previously reported that the bidders for the PPP packages will be prequalified consortiums comprised of sponsors or investors, EPC contractors, and operations and maintenance contractors.
The overall project will require a capital expenditure of about AED30bn ($8bn), while the whole-life cost over the full concession terms of the entire project is estimated to reach AED80bn.
The investor prequalification process for the scheme comes after the client prequalified EPC contractors that can partner with the developers or investors to bid for the contracts.
MEED understands that packages J1 and W will be tendered together as separate contracts first, followed by J2 and J3, with the requests for proposals to be issued sequentially, staggered about six to 12 months apart.
DSST packages
Under the current plan, the $22bn DSST project is broken down into six packages, which will be tendered as PPP packages with concession periods lasting between 25 and 35 years.
The first package, J1, comprises Jebel Ali tunnels (North) and terminal pump stations (TPS). The tunnels will extend approximately 42 kilometres (km), and the links will extend 10km.
The second package, J2, covers the southern section of the Jebel Ali tunnels, which will extend 16km and have a link stretching 46km.
The third package, W for Warsan, comprises 16km of tunnels, TPS and 46km of links.
J3, the fourth package, comprises 129km of links.
J1, J2, W and J3 will comprise the deep sewerage tunnels, links and TPS (TLT) components of the overall project.
J1, J2 and W will be procured under a design-build-finance-operate-maintain model with a concession period of 25-35 years.
J3 will be procured under a design-build-finance model with a concession period of 25-35 years. Once completed, Dubai Municipality will operate J3, unlike the first three packages, which are planned to be operated and maintained by the winning PPP contractors.
The project’s remaining two packages entail expanding and upgrading the Jebel Ali and Warsan sewage treatment plants. MEED understands that these packages will be procured at a later stage.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13370610/main.jpg -
Iraq and GE Vernova complete plants upgrade
6 February 2025
US-headquartered energy technology provider GE Vernova has completed the upgrades of “several key” power plants in Iraq.
The firm and the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity (MoE) announced the upgrade’s completion on 5 February.
The overall upgrade project, which GE Vernova previously announced, covers 46 gas turbines across 12 power plants, adding up to 500MW to Iraq’s national grid before the summer of 2025.
They did not specify which power plants have completed upgrade works.
According to GE, some of the power plants included in this project already transitioned from heavy fuel oil (HFO) to natural gas, with a capacity increase of approximately 260MW. These plants include Ninawa, Al-Diwaniyah, Hilla, Karbala, Shat Al-Basra, Najibiya, Samawa, Dhiqar, Al-Khairat and Al-Haidariya.
GE Vernova added: “The other plants are expected to be modernised within the summer of 2025, with an expected additional increase in capacity of approximately 250MW.
“This modernisation is expected to improve operational flexibility and boost output, efficiency and availability of the power generation assets.”
In addition, the firm announced the successful installation of its Advanced Gas Path (AGP) upgrades on several 9. E gas turbines powering the Al-Quds and Dhiqar power plants, and MXLII upgrades on 13E2 gas turbines powering the Al-Mansouriya power plant.
According to GE Vernova, the expected output increases of up to 6% for each power plant will enable the MoE to generate more electricity using the same amount of fuel.
In addition, as part of the services and upgrade agreement announced in 2024 with the MoE to enhance the availability of power plants across the country, GE Vernova completed comprehensive maintenance projects across several of these power plants, corresponding to a total capacity of 3.7GW.
These power plants include Qayyarah, Diwaniyah, Al-Haydariyah and Baghdad South.
Iraq periodically suffers from power outages, especially during the summer months, when increased cooling requirements overwhelm its power plants and electricity grid.
READ THE FEBRUARY MEED BUSINESS REVIEW
Trump unleashes tech opportunities; Doha achieves diplomatic prowess and economic resilience; GCC water developers eye uptick in award activity in 2025.
Published on 1 February 2025 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the February MEED Business Review includes:
> AGENDA 1: Trump 2.0 targets technology> AGENDA 2: Trump’s new trial in the Middle East> AGENDA 3: Unlocking AI’s carbon conundrum> GAZA: Gaza ceasefire goes into effect> LEBANON: New Lebanese PM raises political hopes> WATER DEVELOPERS: Acwa Power improves lead as IWP contract awards slow> WATER & WASTEWATER: Water projects require innovation> INTERVIEW: Omran’s tourism strategies help deliver Oman 2040> PROJECTS RECORD: 2024 breaks all project records> REAL ESTATE: Ras Al-Khaimah’s robust real estate boom continues> QATAR: Doha works to reclaim spotlight> GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Gulf projects market enters 2025 in state of growth> CONTRACT AWARDS: Monthly haul cements record-breaking total for 2024> ECONOMIC DATA: Data drives regional projects> OPINION: Between the extremes as spring approacheshttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13370380/main.jpg -
Bankability remains hydrogen’s unbreakable challenge
6 February 2025
Commentary
Jennifer Aguinaldo
Energy & technology editorThere is some indication that green hydrogen as an industry has arrived at the valley of disillusionment if the Gartner hype cycle is anything to go by.
This is evident with the dwindling number of attendees and absence of offtakers – global commodity trading companies that are expected to buy premium green hydrogen and derivative products – at previously well-attended green hydrogen summits in major cities in the Gulf.
Following frenzied announcements of multibillion-dollar integrated green hydrogen and ammonia plants in the Middle East and North Africa region, particularly Egypt, Morocco, Oman and the UAE, between 2021 and 2023, it appears that key stakeholders have started coming to grips with reality.
Of the close to 80 green hydrogen projects that MEED and MEED Projects track, only three have so far signed an offtake agreement, and only one has managed to reach financial close.
The $8.4bn Neom green hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia reached financial close in March 2023, nearly two years after it was announced.
The project, the largest of its kind requiring over 4GW of renewable energy and 2GW of electrolyser capacity, managed to reach financial close based on one of the three co-developers, the US’ Air Products, assuming the full offtake and construction risks for the project, note some experts.
A project’s bankability ultimately relies on suitable stakeholders taking on the risks for every aspect of the project, from construction to operations.
Currently, the risks or threats include evolving global regulations related to consumption and carbon emissions pricing; lack of technology maturity; supply and demand uncertainty; and the lack of mainstream demand, according to Wael Almazeedi, chief executive at Abu Dhabi-based International Renewable Energy Certification (I-rec) certified firm Avance Energy.
Almazeedi said these risks “need to be mitigated to the satisfaction of project lenders” if the planned green hydrogen projects in the region are to secure financing and reach the construction phase.
The challenges do not necessarily mean all projects will fail, however.
Similar to predecessors such as solar and electrification technologies, the hope is for the planned green hydrogen projects to eventually emerge out of the realm of disillusionment and reach the so-called enlightenment slope and, ultimately, plateaus of productivity, using Gartner’s hype cycle model.
Government support in terms of regulatory frameworks, inevitably including some form of subsidies to bridge the so-called green premium, as well as global certification standards, are at the top of suppliers’ agendas.
Across the key aspiring Mena clean hydrogen hubs, like the UAE in particular, clearer regulatory frameworks have started to emerge, which could encourage more cohesive cooperation and enable projects to get off the ground.
Key EU countries also appear to remain committed to clean and green hydrogen imports as part of the green deal, while at least one power plant in Japan has completed a three-month trial of co-firing green ammonia with coal “with positive results”.
But until all these come together to ensure an unencumbered global supply chain, offtakers and project financing deals will likely remain elusive.
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READ THE FEBRUARY MEED BUSINESS REVIEW
Trump unleashes tech opportunities; Doha achieves diplomatic prowess and economic resilience; GCC water developers eye uptick in award activity in 2025.
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Morocco explores salt caverns for hydrogen storage
6 February 2025
A feasibility study is under way for a project to explore underground salt cavern sites for green hydrogen storage in Morocco.
According to Samir Rachidi, director-general at Iresen, the underground salt caverns are located near the capital Casablanca.
“There is already an existing cavity used to store natural gas,” Rachidi told MEED.
It is understood the same process or principle will be used to store green hydrogen in salt caverns.
The potential storage capacity of the salt caverns for green hydrogen can only be determined once the feasibility study is completed.
Photo credit: Shutterstock
Underground salt caverns offer an option for the bulk storage of very large amounts of gaseous hydrogen.
According to Ireland-headquartered chemicals firm Linde, which operates the world’s first commercial hydrogen high-purity cavern in Texas, the gas has to be purified and compressed before it can be injected into a cavern.
It added that hydrogen-filled cavities can act as a backup for a pipeline network.
First green ammonia project
Rachidi also said that Moroccan phosphate specialist OCP is in the advanced stages of studying a project to produce 1 million tonnes of green ammonia annually by 2027.
The planned facility, which will cater to export markets, will include a 200,000 tonne-a-year (t/y) green hydrogen production plant and 4,000MW of renewable energy plants.
It will also include an electrolyser plant with a capacity of 2,000MW.
At least seven other green hydrogen or ammonia projects are under study or in the pre-front-end engineering and design stage in the North African state.
In April 2023, a team led by China Energy International Construction Group signed a memorandum of cooperation to develop a green hydrogen project in a coastal area in southern Morocco.
A year earlier, Serbia-headquartered renewables developer and investor CWP Global appointed US firm Bechtel to support the development of large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia facilities in Morocco and Mauritania.
The Amun green hydrogen project, which CWP Global plans to develop in Morocco, is understood to require 15GW of renewable energy and has an estimated budget of between $18bn and $20bn.
Morocco established a National Hydrogen Commission in 2019 and published a green hydrogen roadmap in 2021.
The roadmap entails the production of green hydrogen for local ammonia production and export between 2020 and 2030; the production and export of green hydrogen, green ammonia and synthetic fuels between 2030 and 2040; and the global trade of these products between 2040 and 2050.
Main photo: For illustrative purposes only (Adnoc)
READ THE FEBRUARY MEED BUSINESS REVIEW
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Published on 1 February 2025 and distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the February MEED Business Review includes:
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Qatar maintains stable growth heading
6 February 2025
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> ECONOMY: Qatar economy rebounds alongside diplomatic activity
> BANKING: Qatar banks look to calmer waters in 2025
> UPSTREAM: QatarEnergy strives to raise gas and oil production capacity
> DOWNSTREAM: Qatar chemical projects take a step forward
> POWER & WATER: Facility E award jumpstarts Qatar’s utility projects
> CONSTRUCTION: Qatar construction shows signs of recovery
> DATABANK: Qatar maintains stable growth headinghttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13369431/main.gif