meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE maintains regional economic edge

14 January 2025

 

Heading into 2025, the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to maintain their significant lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index. These opportune markets sit alongside three of their GCC peers – Oman, Qatar and Kuwait – as economies whose real GDP is supported by relatively robust hydrocarbon revenues. 

In 2025, the GCC economies are forecast to grow by an unweighted real GDP growth rate average of 3.3%, compared to just 1.4% in 2024, according to the latest IMF estimates. Across the countries featured in the index, the figure for 2025 was 3.2%, compared to 1.8% in 2024.

One significant reason for this uptick is the subsiding of the Red Sea shipping disruption. Risks remain, but a year of intensive maritime patrols by several international naval coalitions has reduced the risk to commercial vessels. The shipping route has not seen a sinking since the first half of 2024, and there has not been a serious incident involving a Houthi strike on a vessel since September.

At the same time, logistical workarounds by the commercial transport sector have mitigated the disruption and overall risk to regional trade activity.

In terms of the hydrocarbons sector, the IMF expects the average price of oil to be $72.84 a barrel in 2025, compared to $81.29 a barrel in 2024. Alongside continuing Opec+ restrictions on oil production, this points to a slight weakening of oil revenues this year. Government spending plans among the region’s oil exporters are unlikely to be duly affected in the short term however, as such variables have already been factored into near-term expenditures.

Strong lead

The UAE tops the January 2025 MEED Economic Activity Index, with a forecast real GDP growth rate of 4.5%, broad fiscal surplus and strong non-oil growth backed by the ongoing strengthening of its projects market, which saw the award of $82bn-worth of contracts in 2024. This value exceeded project completions in the market in 2024 by almost $50bn and sits well above the long-term average.

Looking ahead, there are projects worth an estimated $8bn in the bidding phase.

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to grow by a similarly buoyant 4.6% in 2025. Although the kingdom is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year, this is largely a function of the government’s expansionary spending on strategic projects and development programmes.

Riyadh’s project spending hit new heights in 2024, with contract awards reaching a record value of $142bn and exceeding the value of project completions in the market by almost $90bn. The country also has an extraordinary $250bn-worth of project value currently under bid.

Moderate activity 

Fellow GCC members Oman, Qatar and Kuwait follow in the index in a tight cluster, supported by real GDP forecasts in the 2-3% range, fiscal projections for top-line surpluses and moderate projects market activity.

Oman’s projects market is the most buoyant, with contract awards growing to $11bn in 2024 – double the $5.5bn in completions.

Qatar’s project award activity meanwhile dipped to $16bn in 2024, below the country’s long-term averages, though it still outpaced the $9bn in project completions last year.

Kuwait’s project activity grew from $6.3bn in awards in 2023 to $9bn in 2024, outpacing completions by $3.5bn and broadly matching long-term contract award averages.

All three countries have strong project pipelines, with $15bn-$25bn-worth of tenders each in the bidding phase.

Much improved

Morocco, Algeria and Iraq follow with sharply improved scores compared with mid-2024, in part due to more buoyant economic projections, including real GDP growth forecasts in the 3%-4% range in 2025.

Though weighed upon by serious fiscal imbalances, all three countries have strongly improved project markets, with contract awards surging from $2.4bn to $8bn in Morocco between 2023 and 2024, from $3.7bn to $21bn in Algeria, and from $14bn to $24bn in Iraq. The awards in all three countries also surpassed last year’s project completions and historic award averages.

Market stragglers

Bahrain comes next in the index as the lowest-performing GCC nation for reasons unrelated to its real GDP performance, which sits around 3%, but instead due to its fiscal and project sector weakness.

Manama is overspending, but not on critical infrastructure. The result is a projects sector that saw just $2.6bn-worth of awards in 2024, well below the $7.5bn in completions, which included the end of work on the $4bn Sitra Refinery, and below the $3.8bn long-term average.

The index is rounded out by Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, whose economic situations are all fragile.

Jordan has a 2.5% growth projection, but high fiscal imbalance and unemployment. Subdued project activity in the country barely recovered to long-term averages in 2024 – after a dismal performance in 2023 – due to a $1bn liquefied natural gas terminal contract award.

Egypt, while projected for 4.1% growth in 2025, is grappling with 30% inflation, a deep fiscal deficit and a contracting projects sector. There were $19bn of awards in 2024, falling below both the 2023 figure and the long-term average for the market.

Tunisia, with a growth projection of just 1.6%, is failing across most metrics as it continues to grapple with a political and economic crisis. The country’s projects activity is no exception, with the value of contract awards in 2024 falling below 25% of the long-term average.

ABOUT THE INDEX

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13246496/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Mace confirms Muscat cultural complex appointment

    3 September 2026

    UK-headquartered engineering firm Mace Consult has confirmed its appointment to manage the construction of the Sayyid Tarik Bin Taimur Cultural Complex in the Al-Seeb area of Muscat.

    The firm will provide project leadership, programme management, commercial oversight and delivery assurance services.

    The complex will be developed on a 400,000-square-metre (sq m) site. Centred on an urban plaza, it will bring together a range of cultural and institutional facilities.

    These include a 23,000 sq m national library, a 15,500 sq m national archives, four facilities buildings with a combined area of 14,000 sq m, and a 5,000 sq m energy and data centre.

    At the heart of the development is the national theatre, which will include a 1,000-seat auditorium and a 250-seat auditorium. The facilities will sit within landscaped gardens and water features, alongside a signature canopy structure.

    In October 2023, the Ministry of Culture, Sports & Youth awarded a design-and-build contract for the complex to a joint venture of local firm Saif Salim Issa Al-Harrasi and Turkiye’s Sembol Construction, MEED reported.

    In January 2026, UAE-based steel structure manufacturer Emirates Building Systems, a wholly owned subsidiary of Dubai Investments, won a contract to deliver the project’s structural steel package.

    Last month, Kuwait-based engineering and architecture consultancy SSH was appointed as the project’s construction supervision consultant.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19314737/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Read the September 2026 MEED Business Review

    3 September 2026

    Download / Subscribe / 14-day trial access

    Nuclear energy is becoming an increasingly important part of the GCC’s long-term power strategy, as governments seek to strengthen energy security, diversify generation and meet decarbonisation goals.

    Saudi Arabia’s civil nuclear cooperation deal with the US marks a major step forward for its plans to develop its first commercial nuclear power plant, while rising electricity demand across the region is creating further momentum.

    With the UAE already operating the Middle East’s first commercial nuclear power station, Saudi Arabia targeting up to 17GW by 2040 and Bahrain exploring small modular reactor technologies, our latest Agenda feature examines the growing role of nuclear energy in the GCC’s future power projects pipeline.

    September’s Market Focus turns to Kuwait, where the country’s oil-dependent economy has weathered unprecedented disruption, yet major investment and infrastructure deals point to resilience.

    This edition also includes a downstream industry report, exploring the accelerating investment in gas processing and associated infrastructure across Mena, the major projects driving spending, and the growing focus on NGL recovery, efficiency and higher-value gas products.

    In the latest issue, we speak to Emsteel chief commercial officer Michael Rion about the Abu Dhabi steelmaker’s plans to strengthen its position in domestic and international markets, including the launch of its ES600 steel rebar and the expansion of its long-standing partnership with Adnoc Group.

    We also examine the GCC’s accelerating tunnelling boom, as major metro, sewerage and road projects increasingly move underground. The feature explores the scale of investment, the contractors and technology driving the market, and the challenges facing the region as demand for tunnelling expertise and equipment grows.

    We hope our valued subscribers enjoy the September 2026 issue of MEED Business Review. 

     

    Must-read sections in the September 2026 issue of MEED Business Review include:

    > AGENDA: Gulf nuclear revival takes shape

    INDUSTRY REPORT:
    Downstream
    > Gas processing takes centre stage in Mena region

    > INTERVIEW: Emsteel persists with business productivity and efficiency

    > TUNNELS: The Gulf’s next construction boom is happening underground

    > KUWAIT MARKET FOCUS: 
    > COMMENT: Kuwait keeps dealmaking alive under fire
    > GOVERNMENT: Kuwait shows tentative signs of economic development
    > BANKING: Necessity is the mother of invention for Kuwaiti lenders
    > OIL & GAS: Regional war to have lasting impact on Kuwaiti oil sector
    > POWER & WATER: Kuwait utilities investment shifts towards water
    > CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction holds up despite regional strife
    > MARKET TALK: Kuwait stands resilient amid regional tensions
    > DATABANK: Kuwait’s economic gains are dented by conflict in 2026

    > MEED COMMENTS: 
    >     Cash is king for Dubai construction
    > Aramco moves apace with Jafurah unconventional gas campaign
    > Neom’s next phase is crucial to green hydrogen pipeline
    > Oman opens door to direct power sales

    > GULF PROJECTS INDEX: Qatar leads gains as Gulf total holds

    > JUNE 2026 CONTRACTS: Middle East contract awards

    > ECONOMIC DATA: Data drives regional projects

    > OPINION: The history of false dawns

    > BUSINESS OUTLOOK: Finance, oil and gas, construction, power and water contracts

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19308287/main.gif
    MEED Editorial
  • Contractors submit bids for Dukhan field facilities upgrade

    3 September 2026

     

    Contractors have submitted bids to QatarEnergy for a key tender to upgrade facilities at the Dukhan oil field in Qatar, about 80 kilometres west of Doha.

    Dukhan, Qatar’s first and only onshore oil field, was discovered in 1938, with oil production starting in 1939-40. The country currently produces about 1.8 million barrels a day (b/d) of crude, with the Dukhan field accounting for about 350,000 b/d of output.

    QatarEnergy issued the tender for the Dukhan production facilities upgrade (DPFU) Phase 1B (Part 2) project on 8 June, and initially set a bid submission deadline of 26 July for contractors, which it later extended to 9 August.

    The following local contractors, among others, are understood to have submitted bids for the DPFU Phase 1B (Part 2) tender, according to information obtained by MEED Projects:

    • Doha Petroleum Construction Company (Dopet)
    • Galfar Al-Misnad Engineering & Contracting
    • Qatar Engineering & Construction Company (Q-con)

    QatarEnergy originally stipulated a bond validity of 150 days (until 23 December) and a bid validity of 120 days (until 23 November) for the project.

    The engineering, procurement, installation and commissioning (EPIC) scope covers upgrades to 56 oil manifolds, 108 gas-lift manifold slots, chemical injection systems and key pumping facilities, along with associated piping, instrumentation, control, electrical and civil works.

    The scope includes demolition of obsolete equipment, degassing station enhancements, and full testing and handover. It also encompasses additional capacity enhancement works under Part 3, mainly the installation of new oil export and produced-water transfer pumps, along with supporting facility modifications.

    The project involves complex interfaces and shutdown-critical activities requiring expertise in live-plant integration.

    The Dukhan oil field extends over an area of about 80km by 8km and consists of four reservoirs: Khatiyah, Fahahil, Jaleha and Diyab. The first three are oil reservoirs. The more recently developed Diyab reservoir contains non-associated gas and is estimated to hold around 2 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Diyab lies on the southern flank of Dukhan.

    ALSO READ: Frontrunners emerge for Qatar offshore oil field expansion
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19312615/main.jpeg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Oman tenders advisory for 3GW solar IPPs

    3 September 2026

    Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (Nama PWP) has invited bids for legal consultancy services for the development of three 1GW solar independent power projects (IPPs).

    The projects will connect to Oman’s main interconnected system (MIS) and are targeted to reach commercial operation by the second quarter of 2030.

    The bid submission deadline is 10 October.

    The state offtaker has now tendered three separate consultancy contracts for the solar IPPs, including two issued in July.

    The bid submission deadline for the financial and commercial consultancy services tender is 10 September.

    Earlier, on 15 July, a technical advisory tender was issued for the three projects as part of a 4GW programme.

    As MEED reported, the financial advisory tender covers four 1GW solar projects connected to the MIS, also targeting commercial operation by the second quarter of 2030.

    It is understood that bids were submitted for this contract on 26 August.

    Oman Electricity Transmission Company (OETC) had earlier outlined the planned grid connection for four 1GW solar IPPs as part of the sultanate’s renewable energy expansion through 2030.

    The projects are included in OETC’s Five-Year Annual Transmission Capability Statement for 2026-30.

    The first, the 1GW Adam solar IPP, is scheduled for grid integration in 2028 and is further ahead in the procurement process, with Nama PWP issuing a request for qualification for the project in June.

    OETC said it expects the 1GW Al-Kamil 2 solar project to be integrated in 2030 through the planned Sadaf 400kV grid station. The 1GW Dhofar solar IPP and 1GW Mahadha solar IPP are also scheduled for integration in 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19311796/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • US firm wins work on QatarEnergy NGL train project

    3 September 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    US-based Nessco has  that it has won a subcontract to provide telecommunications, radio and security systems for QatarEnergy’s project to add a fifth natural gas liquids (NGL) train at its fractionation complex in Qatar’s Mesaieed Industrial City.

    The subcontract was awarded to Houston-headquartered Nessco by India’s Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (LTEH), in its capacity as the main contractor performing engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on the NGL-5 project.

    MEED reported last September that QatarEnergy had selected a consortium of LTEH and Greece-headquartered Consolidated Contractors Group (CCC) to execute EPC works on the NGL-5 project.

    The aim of the project, estimated to be worth $2.5bn, is to build a fifth NGL train with the capacity to process up to 350 million cubic feet a day of rich associated gas from QatarEnergy’s offshore and onshore oil fields.

    In a statement confirming its contract award in October last year, LTEH said the scope of work on its contract “encompasses engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning of a natural gas liquids plant and allied facilities for processing rich associated gas (RAG). This also involves all associated utilities and offsites and integration with existing facilities.

    “The RAG sourced from offshore and onshore oil fields will be treated at the plant to remove impurities like H2S, CO2 and H2O, producing value-added products such as lean sales gas, ethane, propane, butane and hydrocarbon condensate,” Bombay Stock Exchange-listed L&T said. 

    Under the consortium arrangement, LTEH, as the lead partner, will be responsible for engineering and procurement, while CCC will handle construction activities.

    Project scope of work

    Associated gas from the PS1, PS2 and PS3 offshore fields, as well as the Dukhan onshore field, is processed at existing facilities at the NGL complex in Mesaieed – specifically, the Fahahil stripping plant, NGL-1 and Qapco ethane recovery units.

    The planned NGL-5 facility will replace these three units at the Mesaieed complex and process gas from the PS1, PS2 and Dukhan fields.

    The scope of work on the project involves EPC of units for the following functions:

    • Feed gas compression
    • Slug handling
    • Gas sweetening
    • Dehydration
    • Mercury removal
    • NGL fractionation
    • NGL recovery
    • Product treatment
    • Propane refrigeration
    • Acid gas enrichment
    • Sulphur recovery
    • Anti-flaring
    • Utilities
    • Boil-off gas recovery
    • Drains and collection networks
    • Effluent water treatment plant
    • Carbon dioxide treatment and sequestration/export
    • Brownfield modifications
    • Product rundown pipelines

    QatarEnergy intends to start operations at the NGL-5 facility by the second quarter of 2028.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19310738/main5414.jpeg
    Indrajit Sen