meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE maintains regional economic edge

14 January 2025

 

Heading into 2025, the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to maintain their significant lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index. These opportune markets sit alongside three of their GCC peers – Oman, Qatar and Kuwait – as economies whose real GDP is supported by relatively robust hydrocarbon revenues. 

In 2025, the GCC economies are forecast to grow by an unweighted real GDP growth rate average of 3.3%, compared to just 1.4% in 2024, according to the latest IMF estimates. Across the countries featured in the index, the figure for 2025 was 3.2%, compared to 1.8% in 2024.

One significant reason for this uptick is the subsiding of the Red Sea shipping disruption. Risks remain, but a year of intensive maritime patrols by several international naval coalitions has reduced the risk to commercial vessels. The shipping route has not seen a sinking since the first half of 2024, and there has not been a serious incident involving a Houthi strike on a vessel since September.

At the same time, logistical workarounds by the commercial transport sector have mitigated the disruption and overall risk to regional trade activity.

In terms of the hydrocarbons sector, the IMF expects the average price of oil to be $72.84 a barrel in 2025, compared to $81.29 a barrel in 2024. Alongside continuing Opec+ restrictions on oil production, this points to a slight weakening of oil revenues this year. Government spending plans among the region’s oil exporters are unlikely to be duly affected in the short term however, as such variables have already been factored into near-term expenditures.

Strong lead

The UAE tops the January 2025 MEED Economic Activity Index, with a forecast real GDP growth rate of 4.5%, broad fiscal surplus and strong non-oil growth backed by the ongoing strengthening of its projects market, which saw the award of $82bn-worth of contracts in 2024. This value exceeded project completions in the market in 2024 by almost $50bn and sits well above the long-term average.

Looking ahead, there are projects worth an estimated $8bn in the bidding phase.

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to grow by a similarly buoyant 4.6% in 2025. Although the kingdom is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year, this is largely a function of the government’s expansionary spending on strategic projects and development programmes.

Riyadh’s project spending hit new heights in 2024, with contract awards reaching a record value of $142bn and exceeding the value of project completions in the market by almost $90bn. The country also has an extraordinary $250bn-worth of project value currently under bid.

Moderate activity 

Fellow GCC members Oman, Qatar and Kuwait follow in the index in a tight cluster, supported by real GDP forecasts in the 2-3% range, fiscal projections for top-line surpluses and moderate projects market activity.

Oman’s projects market is the most buoyant, with contract awards growing to $11bn in 2024 – double the $5.5bn in completions.

Qatar’s project award activity meanwhile dipped to $16bn in 2024, below the country’s long-term averages, though it still outpaced the $9bn in project completions last year.

Kuwait’s project activity grew from $6.3bn in awards in 2023 to $9bn in 2024, outpacing completions by $3.5bn and broadly matching long-term contract award averages.

All three countries have strong project pipelines, with $15bn-$25bn-worth of tenders each in the bidding phase.

Much improved

Morocco, Algeria and Iraq follow with sharply improved scores compared with mid-2024, in part due to more buoyant economic projections, including real GDP growth forecasts in the 3%-4% range in 2025.

Though weighed upon by serious fiscal imbalances, all three countries have strongly improved project markets, with contract awards surging from $2.4bn to $8bn in Morocco between 2023 and 2024, from $3.7bn to $21bn in Algeria, and from $14bn to $24bn in Iraq. The awards in all three countries also surpassed last year’s project completions and historic award averages.

Market stragglers

Bahrain comes next in the index as the lowest-performing GCC nation for reasons unrelated to its real GDP performance, which sits around 3%, but instead due to its fiscal and project sector weakness.

Manama is overspending, but not on critical infrastructure. The result is a projects sector that saw just $2.6bn-worth of awards in 2024, well below the $7.5bn in completions, which included the end of work on the $4bn Sitra Refinery, and below the $3.8bn long-term average.

The index is rounded out by Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, whose economic situations are all fragile.

Jordan has a 2.5% growth projection, but high fiscal imbalance and unemployment. Subdued project activity in the country barely recovered to long-term averages in 2024 – after a dismal performance in 2023 – due to a $1bn liquefied natural gas terminal contract award.

Egypt, while projected for 4.1% growth in 2025, is grappling with 30% inflation, a deep fiscal deficit and a contracting projects sector. There were $19bn of awards in 2024, falling below both the 2023 figure and the long-term average for the market.

Tunisia, with a growth projection of just 1.6%, is failing across most metrics as it continues to grapple with a political and economic crisis. The country’s projects activity is no exception, with the value of contract awards in 2024 falling below 25% of the long-term average.

ABOUT THE INDEX

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13246496/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai extends deadlines for stormwater drainage projects

    1 September 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality has extended bid submission deadlines for three tenders linked to stormwater and sewerage infrastructure projects serving Hind City, Dubailand and surrounding areas.

    The projects (DS-316-C1, TF-24-C1 and TF-25-C1) cover drainage networks for Hind 4, connections to the stormwater network in Dubailand and a stormwater trunk line serving Hind 3, Hind 4 and Umm Al-Daman.

    The new bid submission deadline is 24 September. Bids were originally due on 10 September.

    The municipality’s Sewerage and Recycled Water Projects Department issued the tenders in August. Hind 3 and Hind 4 are two of four zones within Hind City. The Dubai government renamed the Al-Minhad area and surrounding areas as Hind City in 2023. The 83.9-square-kilometre area is served by Emirates Road, Dubai-Al-Ain Road and Jebel Ali-Lehbab Road.

    The DS-316-C1 project covers the construction of sewer and stormwater networks in Hind 4. The stormwater network will include gravity drainage pipelines up to 1,600 millimetres (mm) in diameter, while the sewer network will include pipelines up to 800mm.

    The TF-24-C1 project will connect developers’ areas in Dubailand to the stormwater network. It includes 18 kilometres (km) of stormwater drainage pipelines with diameters of up to 1,800mm and 3.5km of gravity sewer pipelines with diameters of up to 1,000mm.

    The TF-25-C1 project involves the construction of a 9.2km stormwater trunk line serving Hind 3, Hind 4 and Umm Al-Daman. The trunk line will include gravity drainage pipelines with diameters of up to 2,800mm. It will also serve main roads along its alignment, including sections of the Dubai-Al-Ain Road, and is designed to accommodate stormwater flows from part of Emirates Road.

    The latest tenders follow a series of recent Tasreef package awards by Dubai Municipality.

    In July, MEED reported that local contractor DeTech Contracting had won the estimated $100m TF-15-C1 EPC contract. The municipality has also awarded the TF-15-C2 and DS-204-C1 packages to China State Construction Engineering Corporation and Nael Construction & Contracting.

    The wider Tasreef programme is intended to increase Dubai’s rainwater drainage capacity by 700% by 2033 and provide capacity for the emirate’s needs for the next 100 years.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19220861/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi Arabia redirects towards AI

    1 September 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    The groundbreaking by Humain and DataVolt at Oxagon this month signals where Saudi Arabia’s project spending is heading.

    Over the past year, the dominant story has been reprioritisation, following Neom’s loss of the Asian Winter Games and the cancellation of contracts at Trojena and The Line. While the negative headlines have attracted international attention, it is important to remember that spending has not stopped. Instead, it has changed course, and artificial intelligence (AI) and the new economy are increasingly where it is going.

    The old economy still has a role to play. Over the next eight years, Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup will keep the construction market busy. Looking further ahead, however, the longer-term opportunity lies elsewhere. AI and the wider new economy could sustain a pipeline of construction work that outlasts the events – from data centres and their power supply to the industrial and digital infrastructure that surrounds them.

    Saudi Arabia also has a comparative advantage. Aiman Al‑Mudaifer, Neom’s chief executive, said at Leap that the ability to secure power, land and connectivity was becoming critical to the economics of AI computing capacity. The kingdom has cheap energy, coastline, sovereign capital and, at Oxagon, subsea cables linking to Europe and Africa.

    The build-out is gathering pace. Humain, the PIF-owned AI company launched in May 2025, has struck deals with US chipmakers AMD and Nvidia, attracted interest from Aramco and tendered a separate 6GW campus in east Riyadh. The Oxagon campus is planned to reach 1.5GW, with the first 100MW due in 2028. For contractors and consultants, this points to demand for power distribution, substations, cooling and connectivity rather than stadiums and mountain resorts.

    Whether it pays off is far from settled. Data centre economics depend on customers, chips and reliable power, and Saudi Arabia is a late entrant to a crowded field.

    For construction, the transition will be uneven, and some parts of the projects market will feel the redeployment before they feel the benefit. But for a market that has spent a year dealing with the impact of cancelled contracts and project slowdowns, a clearer sense of where the money is going next is a positive sign.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19222074/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Petrojet signs Jordan gas pipeline contract

    1 September 2026

    Egypt’s Petrojet has signed a new contract to deliver a natural gas pipeline project in Jordan, according to a statement from the company.

    The pipeline network will connect the Al-Muwaqqar Industrial Development Zone, south of Amman, to Jordan’s natural gas network.

    The contract was signed by Saleh Al-Kharabsheh, Jordan’s minister of energy and mineral resources, and Walid Lotfy, the chairman of Petrojet.

    The project covers the engineering, procurement, construction and installation of approximately 22 kilometres of natural gas pipelines, including connection to the Arab Gas Pipeline.

    It also includes developing gas pressure reduction and metering stations, as well as a pig launcher and receiver facility.

    The contract has an 18-month execution period.

    In its statement, Petrojet said the project would further strengthen its international portfolio and demonstrate its engineering, construction and project-execution capabilities across regional and global markets.

    The invitation to bid on the project was issued in June this year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19219983/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait sets fresh bid deadline for $240m oil project

    1 September 2026

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has announced a new bid deadline for the planned project to upgrade gas booster stations 140 and 150 (BS-140 and BS-150).

    The new bid deadline is on 20 September 2026.

    This replaces a previous bid deadline scheduled for 23 August 2026.

    The project, first announced in 2014, is estimated to be worth $240m, and the invitation to bid was issued in May this year.

    The scope of work on the project covers:

    • Upgrade of BS-140 and BS-150
    • Replacement of dehydration facilities
    • Laying of pipelines
    • Installation of safety system
    • Construction of associated facilities

    It was announced in 2017 that the following companies had been prequalified to bid for the project:

    • Daelim Industrial (South Korea)
    • Daewoo Engineering & Construction (South Korea)
    • Fluor (US)
    • Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)
    • JGC Corporation (Japan)
    • Kellogg Brown & Root (US)
    • Larsen & Toubro Hydrocarbon Engineering (India)
    • National Petroleum Construction Company (UAE)
    • Petrofac (UK)
    • Saipem (Italy)
    • Samsung Engineering (South Korea)
    • SK E&C (South Korea)
    • Kentech (UAE; formerly SNC-Lavalin)
    • Technip Energies (France)
    • Tecnicas Reunidas (Spain)

    The list of prequalified companies has likely changed significantly since the previous list was published.

    Kuwait’s oil and gas sector is currently in the midst of a major crisis as disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has dramatically reduced the volume of exported crude oil.

    The disruption is also creating significant challenges for construction projects in the oil and gas sector, which normally import equipment and materials through the Strait of Hormuz.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19219867/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Libyan company secures upstream oil project

    1 September 2026

     

    Libya’s BaderOya Oilfield Services & Energy has been awarded a contract to hook up six wells to an early production facility (EPF) at the Erawin field.

    Engineering contractor Petrofac previously handled the scope of this project. However, Petrofac stopped work before completing the full scope.

    The outstanding work accounted for about 2%-3% of the overall project, according to industry sources.

    The client for the six-well hook-up contract is Zallaf Libya Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Company, which was established in 2013 and is wholly owned by Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC).

    In March this year, MEED reported that Petrofac had stopped work on the EPF development project and reduced its Libyan workforce.

    The scope of the original contract awarded by Zallaf to Petrofac included surface facilities at the Erawin oil field, such as well pads and flowlines. It also included a pipeline to transport crude oil about 100 kilometres (km) to the El-Sharara oil field, plus a control room, substation and telecoms system located there.

    Petrofac completed several elements of the original scope, including the pipeline infrastructure, which has been in operation for more than a year, according to the company.

    Zallaf awarded the Erawin EPF contract to Petrofac under an engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning model. In a 2021 statement, Petrofac said the contract was valued at more than $100m, but did not provide a precise figure. The regional project-tracking service MEED Projects has estimated the contract value at $440m.

    Petrofac did not respond to a request for comment on the award of the well hook-up contract to BaderOya Oilfield Services & Energy.

    Financial problems

    On 27 October last year, Petrofac announced that it had applied to appoint administrators, a move that potentially put thousands of jobs at risk and increased uncertainty for projects worth billions of dollars in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region.

    At the time, the total value of projects awarded to Petrofac and under construction in the region was $5.83bn, according to information recorded by MEED Projects.

    Petrofac also had bids under evaluation for 15 projects in the region worth a total of $19.28bn.

    Since then, key parts of the business have been sold off, and many of the company’s staff have been made redundant.

    The redundancies included around 180 employees who were issued termination notices in October last year.

    In December, the US-based company CB&I announced it had entered into a deal to buy Petrofac’s asset solutions business in the first quarter of 2026.

    In January this year, the proposed company voluntary arrangement related to the sale of its Asset Solutions business was approved.

    Also this year, Petrofac completed the sale of Petrofac Emirates, a business unit it established in Abu Dhabi in 2008.

    The unit was bought by a consortium of financial investors led by the New York-headquartered hedge fund Mason Capital Management and UK-based asset management firm Pearlstone Alternative.

    Project disruption

    After the sale of Petrofac’s asset solutions to CB&I, the US-based company adopted responsibility for close-out works for the Erawin EPF project, according to an industry source.

    This was because the project “fell within an entity that was moving as part of the CB&I sale”, the source said.

    CB&I and Petrofac declined to comment on recent developments relating to the Erawin EPF project and the contract awarded to JOS.

    Erawin exports

    Libya shipped its first cargo of crude from the Erawin oil field in November 2023.

    The shipment departed from Libya’s Zawiyah port and consisted of 600,000 barrels of crude.

    Australia-based Worley Parsons was appointed as the front-end engineering and design (feed) contractor for the EPF project in 2019.

    The Erawin field development project is located about 800km south of Tripoli and 100km southwest of the El-Sharara field.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19219414/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp