meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE maintains regional economic edge

14 January 2025

 

Heading into 2025, the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to maintain their significant lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index. These opportune markets sit alongside three of their GCC peers – Oman, Qatar and Kuwait – as economies whose real GDP is supported by relatively robust hydrocarbon revenues. 

In 2025, the GCC economies are forecast to grow by an unweighted real GDP growth rate average of 3.3%, compared to just 1.4% in 2024, according to the latest IMF estimates. Across the countries featured in the index, the figure for 2025 was 3.2%, compared to 1.8% in 2024.

One significant reason for this uptick is the subsiding of the Red Sea shipping disruption. Risks remain, but a year of intensive maritime patrols by several international naval coalitions has reduced the risk to commercial vessels. The shipping route has not seen a sinking since the first half of 2024, and there has not been a serious incident involving a Houthi strike on a vessel since September.

At the same time, logistical workarounds by the commercial transport sector have mitigated the disruption and overall risk to regional trade activity.

In terms of the hydrocarbons sector, the IMF expects the average price of oil to be $72.84 a barrel in 2025, compared to $81.29 a barrel in 2024. Alongside continuing Opec+ restrictions on oil production, this points to a slight weakening of oil revenues this year. Government spending plans among the region’s oil exporters are unlikely to be duly affected in the short term however, as such variables have already been factored into near-term expenditures.

Strong lead

The UAE tops the January 2025 MEED Economic Activity Index, with a forecast real GDP growth rate of 4.5%, broad fiscal surplus and strong non-oil growth backed by the ongoing strengthening of its projects market, which saw the award of $82bn-worth of contracts in 2024. This value exceeded project completions in the market in 2024 by almost $50bn and sits well above the long-term average.

Looking ahead, there are projects worth an estimated $8bn in the bidding phase.

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to grow by a similarly buoyant 4.6% in 2025. Although the kingdom is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year, this is largely a function of the government’s expansionary spending on strategic projects and development programmes.

Riyadh’s project spending hit new heights in 2024, with contract awards reaching a record value of $142bn and exceeding the value of project completions in the market by almost $90bn. The country also has an extraordinary $250bn-worth of project value currently under bid.

Moderate activity 

Fellow GCC members Oman, Qatar and Kuwait follow in the index in a tight cluster, supported by real GDP forecasts in the 2-3% range, fiscal projections for top-line surpluses and moderate projects market activity.

Oman’s projects market is the most buoyant, with contract awards growing to $11bn in 2024 – double the $5.5bn in completions.

Qatar’s project award activity meanwhile dipped to $16bn in 2024, below the country’s long-term averages, though it still outpaced the $9bn in project completions last year.

Kuwait’s project activity grew from $6.3bn in awards in 2023 to $9bn in 2024, outpacing completions by $3.5bn and broadly matching long-term contract award averages.

All three countries have strong project pipelines, with $15bn-$25bn-worth of tenders each in the bidding phase.

Much improved

Morocco, Algeria and Iraq follow with sharply improved scores compared with mid-2024, in part due to more buoyant economic projections, including real GDP growth forecasts in the 3%-4% range in 2025.

Though weighed upon by serious fiscal imbalances, all three countries have strongly improved project markets, with contract awards surging from $2.4bn to $8bn in Morocco between 2023 and 2024, from $3.7bn to $21bn in Algeria, and from $14bn to $24bn in Iraq. The awards in all three countries also surpassed last year’s project completions and historic award averages.

Market stragglers

Bahrain comes next in the index as the lowest-performing GCC nation for reasons unrelated to its real GDP performance, which sits around 3%, but instead due to its fiscal and project sector weakness.

Manama is overspending, but not on critical infrastructure. The result is a projects sector that saw just $2.6bn-worth of awards in 2024, well below the $7.5bn in completions, which included the end of work on the $4bn Sitra Refinery, and below the $3.8bn long-term average.

The index is rounded out by Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, whose economic situations are all fragile.

Jordan has a 2.5% growth projection, but high fiscal imbalance and unemployment. Subdued project activity in the country barely recovered to long-term averages in 2024 – after a dismal performance in 2023 – due to a $1bn liquefied natural gas terminal contract award.

Egypt, while projected for 4.1% growth in 2025, is grappling with 30% inflation, a deep fiscal deficit and a contracting projects sector. There were $19bn of awards in 2024, falling below both the 2023 figure and the long-term average for the market.

Tunisia, with a growth projection of just 1.6%, is failing across most metrics as it continues to grapple with a political and economic crisis. The country’s projects activity is no exception, with the value of contract awards in 2024 falling below 25% of the long-term average.

ABOUT THE INDEX

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13246496/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • WEBINAR: Iraq Projects Market 2026

    20 May 2026

    Webinar: Iraq Projects Market 2026 
    Thursday 4 June | 11:00 AM GST  |  Register now

    Agenda:

    • Overview of the Iraq projects market landscape
    • 2025-26 projects market performance
    • Value of work awarded 2026 YTD
    • Assessment of key current and future projects
    • Key drivers, challenges and opportunities
    • Summary of the key clients, contractors and consultants
    • Size of future pipeline by sector and status
    • Ranking of the top contractors and clients
    • Short and long-term market outlook
    • Audience Q&A

    Hosted by: Edward James, head of content and analysis at MEED

    A well-known and respected thought leader in Mena affairs, Edward James has been with MEED for more than 19 years, working as a researcher, consultant and content director. Today, he heads up all content and research produced by the MEED group. His specific areas of expertise are construction, hydrocarbons, power and water, and the petrochemicals market. He is considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Mena projects market. He is a regular guest commentator on Middle East issues for news channels such as the BBC, CNN and ABC News and is a regular speaker at events in the region. 

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16925011/main.gif
    Edward James
  • Surbana Jurong to lead Jeddah airport expansion

    20 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Singapore-based engineering firm Surbana Jurong is expected to lead the future expansion and development plans of Jeddah Airports Company (Jedco).

    Surbana Jurong's group CEO, Sean Chiao, met with Jedco's CEO, Mazen Bin Mohammed Johar, earlier this week to explore expanded cooperation.

    The meeting focused on leveraging Surbana Jurong’s international expertise in delivering and managing major projects to help King Abdulaziz International airport (KAIA) scale towards more than 90 million passengers annually by 2030.

    Both sides also discussed talent development for Saudi engineers through Surbana Jurong Academy programmes, mentorship and participation in international airport projects, alongside establishing a joint governance framework and progressing towards a memorandum of understanding.

    Surbana Jurong is delivering project management consultancy services for over 100 capital projects at KAIA, valued at SR3bn ($800m).

    These upgrades will boost KAIA’s annual capacity from 29 million to 114 million passengers by 2030, supporting Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and National Aviation Strategy, and enhancing the experience for domestic travellers and millions of Hajj and Umrah pilgrims.

    According to data from regional project tracker MEED Projects, Surbana Jurong is involved in several major projects in the kingdom, including Red Sea Global's Amaala masterplan, the Trojena dams scheme, Oxagon, King Salman International airport and Saudi Arabia Railway's North-South Phosphate Railway 3.

    The firm has also been part of projects in the wider region, including the West Link project, Etihad high-speed rail and Abu Dhabi airport's Midfield Terminal.

    The firm has also secured masterplan project contracts from Abu Dhabi's Department of Municipalities & Transport and Abu Dhabi Ports.

    MEED’s April 2026 report on Saudi Arabia includes:

    > COMMENT: Risk accelerates Saudi spending shift
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: Riyadh navigates a changed landscape
    > BANKING: Testing times for Saudi banks
    > UPSTREAM: Offshore oil and gas projects to dominate Aramco capex in 2026
    > DOWNSTREAM: Saudi downstream projects market enters lean period
    > POWER: Wind power gathers pace in Saudi Arabia
    > WATER: Sharakat plan signals next phase of Saudi water expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Saudi construction enters a period of strategic readjustment
    > TRANSPORT: Rail expansion powers Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure push

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16922013/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dubai seeks contractors for Metro Gold Line

    20 May 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Dubai's Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) has invited contractors to express interest in a contract to build the new Gold Line, as part of its expansion of the Dubai Metro network.

    The notice was issued in mid-May with a submission deadline of 13 June.

    Dubai officially announced the launch of the new Gold Line in April.

    In a post on social media site X, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, UAE Vice President and Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, said the project will cost about AED34bn ($9.2bn).

    The Gold Line will increase the total length of the Dubai Metro network by 35%.

    The project is scheduled for completion in September 2032.

    The Gold Line will be a fully underground network covering more than 42 kilometres, with 18 stations.

    It will pass through 15 areas in Dubai, benefiting 1.5 million residents.

    The project is expected to provide connectivity to over 55 under-construction real estate development projects.

    The Gold Line will start at Al-Ghubaiba in Bur Dubai and end at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

    It will be connected to Dubai Metro’s existing Red and Green lines and will integrate with the Etihad Rail passenger line.

    The contractor will be responsible for the design and build of all civil works, electromechanical equipment, rolling stock and rail systems.

    The selected contractor will also be required to assist in the systems maintenance and operations during an initial three-year period.

    In October last year, MEED exclusively reported that the RTA had selected US-based engineering firm Aecom to provide consultancy services for the Dubai Metro Gold Line project.

    Stage one covers concept design, stage two covers preliminary design, stage three covers the preparation of tender documents, stage four encompasses construction supervision and stage five covers the defects and liability period.

    MEED’s May 2026 report on the UAE includes:

    > COMMENT: Conflict tests UAE diversification
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: UAE economy absorbs multi-sector shock
    > BANKING: UAE banks ready to weather the storm
    > ATTACKS: UAE counts energy infrastructure costs
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential
    > DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
    > POWER: Large-scale IPPs drive UAE power market
    > WATER: UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination
    > CONSTRUCTION: War casts shadow over UAE construction boom
    > TRANSPORT: UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16919605/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq oil exports drop by 89% in April

    20 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Iraq exported 10 million barrels of crude in April, an 89% drop compared to the 93 million barrels that were exported the month before the Iran conflict, according to the country’s new Oil Minister, Basim Mohammed Khudair.

    Oil exports generated just over $1bn in April, down from $6bn in February, according to a separate statement from the ministry.

    The decline in export volumes and revenues is due to the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the US and Israel’s war with Iran, which started on 28 February.

    The country is exporting crude by sea through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as from Kirkuk through the Iraq-Turkiye Pipeline (ITP).

    Iraq has plans to increase flows through the ITP to 500,000 barrels a day (b/d), according to Khudair.

    The minister said an increase in crude output from the north of the country depends on the return of global oil companies to the Kurdistan region.

    “The government is treating the energy file in the Kurdistan region as a priority,” he said.

    Many international companies in the Iraqi Kurdistan region suspended their operations in the wake of the US and Isreal attacking Iran on 28 February.

    Khudair said Iraq is currently producing a total of 1.4 million b/d of crude.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16913742/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Iraq risks defaulting on payments for $10bn oil project

    20 May 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Iraq’s state-owned upstream operator Basra Oil Company (BOC) risks defaulting on payments for the $27bn Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP) due to fallout from the US and Israel’s war with Iran.

    Phase one of the GGIP is expected to be worth about $10bn and BOC holds a 30% stake in the project, while its partners France’s TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy hold 45% and 25%, respectively.

    The consortium formalised the investment agreement with the Iraqi government in September 2021.

    As part of the investment agreement, BOC was expected to make payments to fund the development of the project and the money from these payments was expected to come from oil revenues.

    Due to disruption to the shipping of oil via the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the US and Israel’s war on Iran, which started on 28 February, BOC’s revenues from oil have declined significantly, impacting the company’s ability to provide funds for the project.

    BOC could default on payments for the project within four to six months if disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues, according to industry sources.

    BOC has already informed TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy that it is going though liquidity problems because it is unable to export normal volumes of oil, sources said.

    When contacted about the project’s financial issues, TotalEnergies referred MEED to comments made by the company’s chief executive Patrick Pouyanne on 29 April.

    He said: “We have maintained a team in Iraq, in Basra, of 20 TotalEnergies’ staff, who are supervising the progress of the GGIP projects on the ground, with around 5,000 workers there.”

    He added: “This conflict immediately has some impact on TotalEnergies' operations. And we have been, by the way, very transparent, since day one, to disclose all the impacts on our activities.”

    TotalEnergies declined to answer questions about potential changes to the schedule for the GGIP and whether there are alternative plans in place that provide for a situation where BOC could not deliver agreed funds.

    GGIP masterplan

    The GGIP programme is focused on developing four major projects in Iraq.

    These are:

    • The Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP)
    • The Ratawi gas processing complex
    • A 1GW solar power project for Iraq’s electricity ministry
    • A field development project at Ratawi, known as the Associated Gas Upstream Project (AGUP)

    The CSSP is designed to support oil production in Iraq’s southern oil and gas fields – mainly Zubair, Rumaila, Majnoon, West Qurna and Ratawi – by delivering treated seawater for injection, a method used to boost crude recovery rates and improve long-term reservoir performance.

    China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (CPECC) won a $1.61bn contract in May to execute engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) work for the gas processing complex at the Ratawi field development.

    CPECC’s project team based in its Dubai office is performing detailed engineering work on the project.

    In August last year, TotalEnergies awarded China Energy Engineering International Group the EPC contract for the 1GW solar project at the Ratawi field. A month later, QatarEnergy signed an agreement with TotalEnergies to acquire a 50% interest in the project.

    The 1GW Ratawi solar scheme will be developed in phases, with each phase coming online between 2025 and 2027. It will have the capacity to provide electricity to about 350,000 homes in Iraq’s Basra region.

    The project, consisting of 2 million bifacial solar panels mounted on single-axis trackers, will include the design, procurement, construction and commissioning of the photovoltaic power station site and 132kV booster station.

    Separately, in June, TotalEnergies awarded China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering an EPC contract worth $294m to build a pipeline as part of a package known as the Ratawi Gas Midstream Pipeline.

    Also, TotalEnergies awarded UK-based consultant Wood Group a pair of engineering framework agreements in April 2025, worth a combined $11m, under the GGIP scheme.

    The agreements have a three-year term under which Wood will support TotalEnergies in advancing the AGUP.

    One of the aims of the AGUP is to debottleneck and upgrade existing facilities to increase production capacity to 120,000 barrels a day of oil on completion of the first phase, according to a statement by Wood.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16913732/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp