meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE maintains regional economic edge

14 January 2025

 

Heading into 2025, the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to maintain their significant lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index. These opportune markets sit alongside three of their GCC peers – Oman, Qatar and Kuwait – as economies whose real GDP is supported by relatively robust hydrocarbon revenues. 

In 2025, the GCC economies are forecast to grow by an unweighted real GDP growth rate average of 3.3%, compared to just 1.4% in 2024, according to the latest IMF estimates. Across the countries featured in the index, the figure for 2025 was 3.2%, compared to 1.8% in 2024.

One significant reason for this uptick is the subsiding of the Red Sea shipping disruption. Risks remain, but a year of intensive maritime patrols by several international naval coalitions has reduced the risk to commercial vessels. The shipping route has not seen a sinking since the first half of 2024, and there has not been a serious incident involving a Houthi strike on a vessel since September.

At the same time, logistical workarounds by the commercial transport sector have mitigated the disruption and overall risk to regional trade activity.

In terms of the hydrocarbons sector, the IMF expects the average price of oil to be $72.84 a barrel in 2025, compared to $81.29 a barrel in 2024. Alongside continuing Opec+ restrictions on oil production, this points to a slight weakening of oil revenues this year. Government spending plans among the region’s oil exporters are unlikely to be duly affected in the short term however, as such variables have already been factored into near-term expenditures.

Strong lead

The UAE tops the January 2025 MEED Economic Activity Index, with a forecast real GDP growth rate of 4.5%, broad fiscal surplus and strong non-oil growth backed by the ongoing strengthening of its projects market, which saw the award of $82bn-worth of contracts in 2024. This value exceeded project completions in the market in 2024 by almost $50bn and sits well above the long-term average.

Looking ahead, there are projects worth an estimated $8bn in the bidding phase.

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to grow by a similarly buoyant 4.6% in 2025. Although the kingdom is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year, this is largely a function of the government’s expansionary spending on strategic projects and development programmes.

Riyadh’s project spending hit new heights in 2024, with contract awards reaching a record value of $142bn and exceeding the value of project completions in the market by almost $90bn. The country also has an extraordinary $250bn-worth of project value currently under bid.

Moderate activity 

Fellow GCC members Oman, Qatar and Kuwait follow in the index in a tight cluster, supported by real GDP forecasts in the 2-3% range, fiscal projections for top-line surpluses and moderate projects market activity.

Oman’s projects market is the most buoyant, with contract awards growing to $11bn in 2024 – double the $5.5bn in completions.

Qatar’s project award activity meanwhile dipped to $16bn in 2024, below the country’s long-term averages, though it still outpaced the $9bn in project completions last year.

Kuwait’s project activity grew from $6.3bn in awards in 2023 to $9bn in 2024, outpacing completions by $3.5bn and broadly matching long-term contract award averages.

All three countries have strong project pipelines, with $15bn-$25bn-worth of tenders each in the bidding phase.

Much improved

Morocco, Algeria and Iraq follow with sharply improved scores compared with mid-2024, in part due to more buoyant economic projections, including real GDP growth forecasts in the 3%-4% range in 2025.

Though weighed upon by serious fiscal imbalances, all three countries have strongly improved project markets, with contract awards surging from $2.4bn to $8bn in Morocco between 2023 and 2024, from $3.7bn to $21bn in Algeria, and from $14bn to $24bn in Iraq. The awards in all three countries also surpassed last year’s project completions and historic award averages.

Market stragglers

Bahrain comes next in the index as the lowest-performing GCC nation for reasons unrelated to its real GDP performance, which sits around 3%, but instead due to its fiscal and project sector weakness.

Manama is overspending, but not on critical infrastructure. The result is a projects sector that saw just $2.6bn-worth of awards in 2024, well below the $7.5bn in completions, which included the end of work on the $4bn Sitra Refinery, and below the $3.8bn long-term average.

The index is rounded out by Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, whose economic situations are all fragile.

Jordan has a 2.5% growth projection, but high fiscal imbalance and unemployment. Subdued project activity in the country barely recovered to long-term averages in 2024 – after a dismal performance in 2023 – due to a $1bn liquefied natural gas terminal contract award.

Egypt, while projected for 4.1% growth in 2025, is grappling with 30% inflation, a deep fiscal deficit and a contracting projects sector. There were $19bn of awards in 2024, falling below both the 2023 figure and the long-term average for the market.

Tunisia, with a growth projection of just 1.6%, is failing across most metrics as it continues to grapple with a political and economic crisis. The country’s projects activity is no exception, with the value of contract awards in 2024 falling below 25% of the long-term average.

ABOUT THE INDEX

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13246496/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Aramco issues tender for gas pipeline at Ras Tanura refinery

    19 June 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Contractors are preparing bids for a Saudi Aramco tender involving the replacement of a pipeline that is part of the Gas Line Abqaiq – Ras Tanura (GART) transmission network.

    The GART grid transports associated gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) from the Abqaiq oil processing complex as feedstock, northwards to the Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

    The aim of the project is to replace the GART-22 pipeline that connects the Juaymah export terminal on the Gulf coast in the Eastern Province to the Ras Tanura refinery, to ensure reliable fuel gas supply and meet ongoing demand.

    The basic scope of work on the project is to install a new, 24-inch pipeline system that will replace the GART-22 line and the abandoned GART-24 line. It will cover a distance of 18 kilometres between Juaymah and the Ras Tanura terminal.

    The scope also includes the installation of associated scraper trap facilities (launcher and receiver), pressure control valves, motor-operated valves and gas detection and sampling systems.

    Aramco issued the tender for the project in May and has set a deadline of 30 June for contractors to submit proposals.

    The following contractors, among others, are understood to be bidding for the project:

    • ACE Pipeline Arabia
    • Combined Group Contracting Company
    • Gas Arabian Services Company
    • Max Streicher Saudi Arabia
    • National Basics Company
    • Saad Ali Alessa Group
    • Sicim
    • Sinopec Engineering Group Saudi
    • Tecton Engineering & Construction
    Ras Tanura refinery complex

    The Ras Tanura refinery is the oldest, and one of the largest, crude oil refineries in Saudi Arabia. The complex has a refining capacity of 550,000 barrels a day (b/d).

    The facility also has a 305,000 b/d NGL processing facility, a 960,000 b/d crude stabilisation facility, combined steam and gas turbine electrical power generation plants with a summer capacity of 145MW and a winter capacity of 158MW, and a combined 150-pound and 600-pound steam capacity of 6,217 million pounds an hour.

    It has 75 crude oil and products storage tanks with a combined capacity of 5.8 million barrels.

    The Ras Tanura refinery’s major facilities include a 325,000 b/d crude distillation unit, a 225,000 b/d gas condensate distillation unit, a 50,000 b/d hydrocracker and 107,000 b/d of catalytic reforming capacity.

    The facility is Aramco’s only refinery to contain a Visbreaker processing unit, which has a 60,000 b/d capacity.

    The Visbreaker reduces the quantity of residual oil produced in the distillation of crude oil and increases the yield of more valuable middle distillates, heating oil and diesel.

    The refinery complex also produces 17,000 b/d of asphalt, more than any other refinery in Saudi Arabia.

    Ras Tanura receives crude feedstock from the Abqaiq, Safaniya and Manifa oil field developments.

    Crude is typically transferred to Ras Tanura through a pipeline and can also be supplied by ship.

    Most of Ras Tanura’s production is transferred to the Dhahran bulk plant for domestic use, while some products are exported from the nearby Ras Tanura shipping terminal.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17332850/main.JPG
    Indrajit Sen
  • Bahrain opens bids for 1.2GW Sitra IWPP

    19 June 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Two developers have submitted bids for the 1.2GW Sitra independent water and power plant (IWPP), according to details published by Bahrain’s Tender Board.

    The offers were made by Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) and Saudi Arabia's Acwa. The technical element of the bid was opened on 18 June.

    The Sitra IWPP is a combined-cycle gas turbine plant and is expected to have a generation capacity of about 1,200MW of electricity. The project’s seawater reverse osmosis desalination facility will have a production capacity of 30 million imperial gallons a day. 

    The build, own and operate project is being procured by Bahrain’s Electricity & Water Authority (EWA) under a public-private partnership framework for 20-25 years.

    According to a source, "evaluation will be done on technical bids and put up to a tender board for approval".

    Financials will be opened only after the technical element has been approved.

    Other major IWPP projects in the region have also recorded relatively low bidder particpation in recent weeks, reflecting the level of investment required for such projects.

    Earlier this month, MEED reported that just two bids had been received for the first phase of Kuwait’s Al-Khairan IWPP project.

    Three consortiums and two individual companies had previously prequalified to participate in the tender.

    In 2024, Bahrian's EWA received statements of qualifications from nine firms interested in bidding for the Sitra IWPP. Seven international companies and consortiums were then prequalified to bid last year.

    Sitra grid works

    Meanwhile, firms are still awaiting awards for two separate contracts related to the establishment of new Sitra 400kV grid substations.

    The first contract involves transformer and reactor works for the establishment of the substations.

    Switzerland-headquartered Hitachi Energy submitted the lowest bid of BD17.8m ($47.1m). Germany’s Siemens Energy submitted an offer of BD23.9m ($63.2m).

    The second contract involves 400kV and 220kV feeder cable works for the same Sitra 400kV grid substations. Three South Korean companies previously bid for the contract.

    Bids for both contracts were opened in March.

    In September, Siemens Energy won a contract worth BD48.1m ($127m) to build a 400kV transmission substation in Sitra to provide the transmission link for the planned Sitra IWPP.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17329853/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Jordan starts international stadium construction works

    18 June 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Jordan has started preliminary excavation and site preparation work at its Al-Hussein Bin Abdullah II International Stadium, located east of the capital city of Amman.

    The project is part of the first phase of the Amra City development master plan.

    The development is being implemented by Jordan Cities & Facilities Development Company, a Jordan Investment Fund-owned company.

    The main works are expected to begin early next year, with the stadium slated for completion in 2029.

    The project will cover an area of about 1 million square metres and the stadium will have a capacity of 50,000 spectators.

    The stadium is being built within the Amra City development, which is located about 40 kilometres (km) from downtown Amman and 35km from Zarqa City and Queen Alia International airport.

    The project forms part of Jordan's Economic Modernisation Vision (EMV) 2023-25.

    The EMV – Amman’s flagship reform programme – aims to increase real income per capita by an average of 3% annually, create 1 million jobs, and more than double the country’s GDP over the next decade.

    The strategy envisages a leading role for the private sector, which is expected to account for 73% of the estimated $58.8bn investment required.

    To achieve these targets, a substantial pipeline of public-private partnership (PPP) projects is planned in sectors including water desalination, school construction, clean energy, green hydrogen, transport and road infrastructure.

    Last year, the PPP unit at the Investment Ministry said it was targeting seven key PPP projects in 2025.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17325757/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Chinese firms win $506m Saudi housing project deals

    18 June 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s Municipalities & Housing Ministry has awarded contracts worth over SR1.9bn ($506m) to Chinese contractors for two residential developments in the kingdom.

    The first contract has been awarded to China Architectural Construction Corporation for the construction of 2,010 housing units at the Al-Ruba residential project in Riyadh. The contract value is SR875m ($233m).

    The other contract has been awarded to China State Construction Engineering Corporation for the Al-Rasha Al-Faisaliah residential project in Dammam. The project comprises 2,426 housing units, and the contract value is over SR1bn ($266m).

    The contracts were announced during the official visit of Majed Al-Hogail, Saudi Municipalities & Housing Minister, to China, where he also signed six memorandums of understanding (MoUs) between Saudi and Chinese firms. The MoUs aim to accelerate housing development, localise advanced construction technologies and enhance public-private sector collaboration.

    MEED reported in 2020 that Riyadh planned to oversee the development of more than 1 million homes by 2025 to meet growing demand in the kingdom.

    By 2030, the Saudi capital aims to more than double its population, from 7-8 million to 15-20 million, and to become one of the 10 wealthiest cities in the world.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17322994/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Diriyah awards $727m Waldorf Astoria superblock deal

    17 June 2026

     

    Saudi gigaproject developer Diriyah Company has awarded a SR2.7bn ($727m) contract for the main construction works on the development’s Waldorf Astoria superblock.

    The contract was awarded to the joint venture of Hassan Allam Construction Saudi and UCC Saudi, the local branch of Qatar’s Urbacon Holding.

    The Waldorf Astoria superblock is a mixed-use development comprising a Waldorf Astoria hotel, Waldorf Astoria-branded residences, commercial and residential facilities, and office space.

    The Waldorf Astoria hotel will feature 200 keys, while the residential component will comprise 47 branded residences.

    The project is located on the Grand Boulevard South and Northern Arterial Road in the Boulevard Northwestern district at Diriyah Gate 2. 

    Diriyah Company tendered the contract in November last year, with submissions due in January, as MEED reported.

    Diriyah Company Group CEO Jerry Inzerillo said: “We are delighted to announce this latest major construction contract for the Waldorf Astoria superblock as we continue to progress at pace across the Diriyah development area. The Waldorf Astoria will be a world-class addition to our growing portfolio of globally renowned hospitality brands, further strengthening Diriyah’s appeal as a globally significant destination that offers world-class hospitality and lifestyle experiences.

    “Together with our partners, we look forward to delivering another landmark development that supports the kingdom’s Vision 2030 ambitions and contributes to the continued growth and success of Diriyah.”

    Hassan Allam, chairman and CEO of Hassan Allam Holding, said: “We are proud to support the development of one of the kingdom’s most ambitious and transformative destinations and to continue our partnership with Diriyah Company in bringing its vision to life.

    “Drawing on more than 90 years of experience across the Mena region, we remain committed to delivering the highest standards of quality and excellence on landmark projects that are helping shape the kingdom’s future.”

    Ramez Al-Khayyat, UCC Holding president and group CEO, said: “Being awarded this contract by Diriyah Company marks another important milestone in our growing partnership and reinforces our shared commitment to delivering world-class developments across the kingdom. This project builds on our ongoing collaboration in Diriyah, including the delivery of four luxury hotels and the Royal Diriyah Equestrian and Polo Club in Wadi Safar.

    “We value the opportunity to contribute once again to one of Saudi Arabia’s most ambitious and prestigious urban development destinations, supporting the vision of creating a world-class cultural, hospitality and lifestyle hub.”

    The latest award follows Diriyah Company’s award of an estimated SR730m ($195m) construction contract for civic quarter buildings within the Diriyah development to local contractor Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company (RTCC).

    In April, Diriyah announced a SR1.84bn ($490m) construction contract to build the Saudi Arabia Museum of Contemporary Art (SAMoCA) within the Diriyah development. The contract was awarded to a consortium of Egyptian contractor Hassan Allam Construction Saudi and Saudi Arabia’s Albawani.

    In March, Diriyah Company awarded an estimated SR2.5bn ($666m) contract to build the Pendry superblock in the DG2 area.

    The Pendry superblock includes the construction of the Pendry Hotel alongside residential and commercial assets. The package will cover 75,365 square metres and is located in the northwestern district of the DG2 area.

    The previous month, Diriyah Company also awarded a SR717m ($192m) contract for the construction of the One Hotel, located in the Diriyah Two area of the masterplan, with a gross floor area of more than 31,000 sq m.

    The Diriyah masterplan envisages the city as a cultural and lifestyle tourism destination. Located northwest of Riyadh’s city centre, it will cover 14 square kilometres and combine 300 years of history, culture and heritage with hospitality facilities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17287718/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal