meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE maintains regional economic edge

14 January 2025

 

Heading into 2025, the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to maintain their significant lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index. These opportune markets sit alongside three of their GCC peers – Oman, Qatar and Kuwait – as economies whose real GDP is supported by relatively robust hydrocarbon revenues. 

In 2025, the GCC economies are forecast to grow by an unweighted real GDP growth rate average of 3.3%, compared to just 1.4% in 2024, according to the latest IMF estimates. Across the countries featured in the index, the figure for 2025 was 3.2%, compared to 1.8% in 2024.

One significant reason for this uptick is the subsiding of the Red Sea shipping disruption. Risks remain, but a year of intensive maritime patrols by several international naval coalitions has reduced the risk to commercial vessels. The shipping route has not seen a sinking since the first half of 2024, and there has not been a serious incident involving a Houthi strike on a vessel since September.

At the same time, logistical workarounds by the commercial transport sector have mitigated the disruption and overall risk to regional trade activity.

In terms of the hydrocarbons sector, the IMF expects the average price of oil to be $72.84 a barrel in 2025, compared to $81.29 a barrel in 2024. Alongside continuing Opec+ restrictions on oil production, this points to a slight weakening of oil revenues this year. Government spending plans among the region’s oil exporters are unlikely to be duly affected in the short term however, as such variables have already been factored into near-term expenditures.

Strong lead

The UAE tops the January 2025 MEED Economic Activity Index, with a forecast real GDP growth rate of 4.5%, broad fiscal surplus and strong non-oil growth backed by the ongoing strengthening of its projects market, which saw the award of $82bn-worth of contracts in 2024. This value exceeded project completions in the market in 2024 by almost $50bn and sits well above the long-term average.

Looking ahead, there are projects worth an estimated $8bn in the bidding phase.

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to grow by a similarly buoyant 4.6% in 2025. Although the kingdom is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year, this is largely a function of the government’s expansionary spending on strategic projects and development programmes.

Riyadh’s project spending hit new heights in 2024, with contract awards reaching a record value of $142bn and exceeding the value of project completions in the market by almost $90bn. The country also has an extraordinary $250bn-worth of project value currently under bid.

Moderate activity 

Fellow GCC members Oman, Qatar and Kuwait follow in the index in a tight cluster, supported by real GDP forecasts in the 2-3% range, fiscal projections for top-line surpluses and moderate projects market activity.

Oman’s projects market is the most buoyant, with contract awards growing to $11bn in 2024 – double the $5.5bn in completions.

Qatar’s project award activity meanwhile dipped to $16bn in 2024, below the country’s long-term averages, though it still outpaced the $9bn in project completions last year.

Kuwait’s project activity grew from $6.3bn in awards in 2023 to $9bn in 2024, outpacing completions by $3.5bn and broadly matching long-term contract award averages.

All three countries have strong project pipelines, with $15bn-$25bn-worth of tenders each in the bidding phase.

Much improved

Morocco, Algeria and Iraq follow with sharply improved scores compared with mid-2024, in part due to more buoyant economic projections, including real GDP growth forecasts in the 3%-4% range in 2025.

Though weighed upon by serious fiscal imbalances, all three countries have strongly improved project markets, with contract awards surging from $2.4bn to $8bn in Morocco between 2023 and 2024, from $3.7bn to $21bn in Algeria, and from $14bn to $24bn in Iraq. The awards in all three countries also surpassed last year’s project completions and historic award averages.

Market stragglers

Bahrain comes next in the index as the lowest-performing GCC nation for reasons unrelated to its real GDP performance, which sits around 3%, but instead due to its fiscal and project sector weakness.

Manama is overspending, but not on critical infrastructure. The result is a projects sector that saw just $2.6bn-worth of awards in 2024, well below the $7.5bn in completions, which included the end of work on the $4bn Sitra Refinery, and below the $3.8bn long-term average.

The index is rounded out by Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, whose economic situations are all fragile.

Jordan has a 2.5% growth projection, but high fiscal imbalance and unemployment. Subdued project activity in the country barely recovered to long-term averages in 2024 – after a dismal performance in 2023 – due to a $1bn liquefied natural gas terminal contract award.

Egypt, while projected for 4.1% growth in 2025, is grappling with 30% inflation, a deep fiscal deficit and a contracting projects sector. There were $19bn of awards in 2024, falling below both the 2023 figure and the long-term average for the market.

Tunisia, with a growth projection of just 1.6%, is failing across most metrics as it continues to grapple with a political and economic crisis. The country’s projects activity is no exception, with the value of contract awards in 2024 falling below 25% of the long-term average.

ABOUT THE INDEX

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13246496/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Hormuz crisis revives 1970s-style energy shock

    5 May 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Read the May issue of MEED Business Review

    The conflict with Iran is threatening to recalibrate the global energy system. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused an energy security crisis reminiscent of the shocks of the 1970s – both in scale and in its potential long-term implications.

    The 1973-74 energy crisis, triggered by an Opec oil embargo, sent prices soaring and altered the trajectory of the global economy. It spurred the creation of the International Energy Agency, the development of strategic petroleum reserves and a wave of energy-efficiency policies. It also cemented energy-for-security arrangements between the West and the Gulf – relationships now being tested again by the latest conflict.

    Today’s disruption – 11 million barrels of oil a day and around 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping capacity – creates a deficit that far exceeds the roughly 5 million barrels a day removed from the market in 1973. 

    While the shocks of the 1970s ushered in a decade of stagflation and a lasting shift towards diversified supply, the current crisis could accelerate demand destruction and a pivot towards energy sovereignty.

    The story is a developing one. From Vietnam’s cancellation of LNG projects in favour of renewables to the surge in electric vehicle adoption across Europe, the perceived unreliability of traditional supply routes is forcing an unprecedented reorientation of capital. 

    The Middle East – long the indispensable heartbeat of global industry – now risks sustained challenges to its market share as producers in the US, Russia, Africa and South America develop new projects unencumbered by reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

    The structural changes taking root in 2026, like those in 1974, will outlive the conflict itself. Even a swift cessation of hostilities may not allow markets to return to their pre-conflict norms. 

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16685390/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Brookfield to double down on Gulf investment

    5 May 2026

    Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt has said the asset and alternative investment management company intends to increase its investments in the Gulf, despite the ongoing conflict in the region.

    When asked whether the war is changing the way he thinks about the Gulf region during an interview with CNBC at the Milken Institute Global Conference on 4 May, he said: “No, short answer no – in fact, [we’re] doubling down, we are doing more.

    “When you find great businesses, countries, great people, and the market offers you an opportunity to invest when others are not, it is always the best opportunity in the world, so we are doing more. We have been there for 25 years; we are continuing to do all of the investments we have there, and we are going to do more.”

    Flatt suggested the current period of geopolitical stress could accelerate long-term economic strengthening across the Gulf, arguing that governments and businesses will respond by investing in self-sufficiency and strategic infrastructure. “They will eventually build better countries because of this,” he said.

    Flatt added: “They’re going to build resiliency in all their systems. They’re going to build their own artificial intelligence (AI). They’re going to build their own pipelines to the coast. They’re going to do things they didn’t do before. They have to do it. They probably should have, but they’re going to now, and they’re going to be more resilient.”

    UAE meetings

    Flatt has also travelled to the region since the conflict began on 28 February, meeting senior UAE officials to discuss investment opportunities and deepen cooperation. In Abu Dhabi on 9 April, he met Sheikh Khaled Bin Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council. The meeting explored ways to strengthen cooperation in investment and asset management between UAE-based institutions and Brookfield, in line with global economic trends and evolving market demands.

    Two days later in Dubai, Flatt met Sheikh Maktoum Bin Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, First Deputy Ruler of Dubai, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance and Chairman of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). During the meeting, both sides explored opportunities to expand cooperation, highlighting the UAE and Dubai’s value proposition for global investors, including an integrated financial system, a flexible and advanced regulatory environment and world-class digital infrastructure. Discussions also covered Dubai’s role as a bridge between East and West, and the emirate’s emphasis on long-term partnerships and a transparent, business-friendly environment.

    Qatar partnership

    Brookfield’s regional activities are not limited to the UAE. In late 2025, the firm and Qai – Qatar’s AI company and a subsidiary of Qatar Investment Authority – announced a strategic partnership to establish a $20bn joint venture focused on AI infrastructure in Qatar and select international markets. The venture is expected to support Qatar’s ambition to become a hub for AI services and infrastructure in the Middle East. It is slated to be backed through Brookfield’s Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Fund, part of a broader AI infrastructure programme targeting up to $100bn in global investment.

    Brookfield Infrastructure maintains a vast and diversified global portfolio characterised by high-barrier-to-entry assets across five core sectors. The data infrastructure segment has become a primary growth engine, currently comprising 150 data centres with significant operating capacity and about 308,000 operational telecom sites. In the utility and energy midstream space, the firm manages over 1,900 miles of electric transmission lines and a network of 2,100 miles of gas pipelines. The transport sector is another cornerstone of the portfolio, anchored by 22,500 miles of rail operations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16686052/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Oman seeks adviser for hydrogen-based IPP

    5 May 2026

    Oman’s Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (PWP) has issued a tender for technoeconomic consultancy services for power generation using green hydrogen.

    The offtaker said it intends to appoint a consultant to undertake an initial assessment for the development of a new independent power project (IPP).

    The plant is expected to be capable of operating on up to 100% hydrogen with an indicative generation capacity in the range of 800MW to 1,000MW.

    The bid submission deadline is 21 June.

    To date, hydrogen deployment has focused mainly on production and export projects, while power generation activity remains largely limited to pilot schemes rather than utility-scale, fully hydrogen-fired plants.

    According to a typical IPP development timeline spanning feasibility, procurement, financing and construction, the potential plant would be unlikely to enter operation before the early 2030s.

    Nama PWP also recently issued a separate consultancy tender seeking services to support ESG policy development.

    The deadline for firms to submit offers is 10 May.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16683857/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • NCP seeks firms for healthcare PPP project

    5 May 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Defence and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) have issued an expression of interest and request for qualification (RFQ) notice for the Chronic Kidney Disease Care and National Dialysis Services project.

    The notice was issued on 4 May, with a submission deadline of 15 June.

    The project will be delivered as a public-private partnership (PPP) under a design, repurpose, finance and maintain (DRFM) model, with a six-year contract term.

    NCP said the initiative supports Saudi Vision 2030 by increasing private sector participation in the healthcare sector.

    The project is structured into four packages, each covering a minimum number of patients across multiple regions to ensure wide geographic reach and improved access.

    Selected operators will be required to provide the necessary facilities, equipment and information technology systems, as well as supply qualified personnel. They will also manage clinical services – including in-centre haemodialysis, home haemodialysis, peritoneal dialysis, vascular access and outpatient services – alongside non-clinical operations.

    In January, Saudi Arabia launched a National Privatisation Strategy, which aims to mobilise $64bn in private sector capital by 2030.

    The strategy builds on the privatisation programme first introduced in 2018. It will focus on unlocking state-owned assets for private investment and privatising selected government services.

    In a statement, NCP said the new strategy comprises 147 opportunities drawn from a broader pipeline of more than 500 projects across 18 sectors.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16683825/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iranian drone attack on Fujairah oil hub injures three

    5 May 2026

    The UAE has accused Iran of attacking the country with a new barrage of missiles and drones, setting an oil facility ablaze in the emirate of Fujairah and wounding three Indian nationals.

    The UAE’s Ministry of Defence said its air defences “engaged” a total of 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and four drones launched from Iran on 4 May.

    The country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned “in the strongest terms the renewed terrorist, unprovoked Iranian attacks targeting civilian sites and facilities”.

    The foreign ministry statement added that the UAE will not tolerate any threat to its security and sovereignty, and warned that the country reserves the “full and legitimate right to respond” to the attacks.

    Earlier in the day, a crude oil tanker affiliated with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) was hit by two drones in waters off the UAE and Oman, while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

    The attacks on 4 May mark the first on the UAE since Iran and the US agreed to a ceasefire on 8 April, with peace talks remaining deadlocked.

    Iran has maintained a stranglehold on the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and the US has imposed a naval blockade in response.

    On 3 May, US President Donald Trump said the US would begin escorting ships through the strait from the following day. US Central Command said it would use guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land- and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms and 15,000 service members.

    Iran’s unified military command warned commercial ships against accepting the US offer and said American forces “will be attacked if they intend to approach and enter the Strait of Hormuz”.

    Fujairah Oil Industry Zone attacks

    The Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) has suffered at least half a dozen attacks since March, after the war between Iran and the US broke out on 28 February.

    Fujairah benefits from its strategic geopolitical location outside the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies normally passes.

    Major midstream oil and gas companies operate key storage and export hubs for oil and refined products in Fujairah, including Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group), Saudi Aramco – through its subsidiary Aramco Trading – Vopak Horizon, VTTI, Shell, Fujairah Oil Terminal, Brooge Petroleum & Gas Investment Company (BPGIC), Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc), Ecomar, Mount Row and GPS Chemoil.

    Fujairah is crucial to the operations of Adnoc Group subsidiary Adnoc Onshore, which operates a main oil terminal (MOT) there. Located approximately 300 kilometres north of Abu Dhabi, the terminal facilitates the import and export of various crude oil grades, particularly Murban, from the company’s onshore and offshore fields.

    Additionally, the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Adcop) connects milestone pole (MP) 21 at the Habshan oil facility in Abu Dhabi, where stabilised crude produced from Adnoc Onshore fields is gathered for dispatch, to the Fujairah MOT.

    BPGIC is an oil storage and services firm that was established in 2013 in Fujairah and started operations with a capacity of 400,000 cubic metres spanning 14 tanks. In March 2022, it announced its intention to increase the storage capacity of four of those storage tanks in the first phase complex.

    Separately, in September 2021, BPGIC began operations at the second phase of its Fujairah oil storage complex, adding 600,000 cubic metres of storage capacity across eight tanks. As a result of that expansion, BPGIC’s storage capacity more than doubled to 1 million cubic metres, or 6.3 million barrels, from 400,000 cubic metres.

    BPGIC then undertook a third expansion phase of its oil storage facility, which is understood to have been commissioned in 2023.

    The third phase increased BPGIC’s oil storage capacity by 3.5 times, raising it to 3.5 million cubic metres, or 22 million barrels, and making the firm the largest oil storage services provider in the UAE emirate of Fujairah.

    The third-phase expansion project consists of an oil storage facility with a capacity of 2.5 million cubic metres, a modular 25,000-barrel-a-day (b/d) refinery, and a larger 180,000-b/d conventional refinery.

    BPGIC also co-owns a topping refinery in Fujairah with Nigeria-based Sahara Energy Resources, which produces low-sulphur bunker fuel for ships and vessels. It is understood that the new naphtha upgradation unit could be integrated with the existing topping refinery unit.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16683608/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen