meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE maintains regional economic edge

14 January 2025

 

Heading into 2025, the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to maintain their significant lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index. These opportune markets sit alongside three of their GCC peers – Oman, Qatar and Kuwait – as economies whose real GDP is supported by relatively robust hydrocarbon revenues. 

In 2025, the GCC economies are forecast to grow by an unweighted real GDP growth rate average of 3.3%, compared to just 1.4% in 2024, according to the latest IMF estimates. Across the countries featured in the index, the figure for 2025 was 3.2%, compared to 1.8% in 2024.

One significant reason for this uptick is the subsiding of the Red Sea shipping disruption. Risks remain, but a year of intensive maritime patrols by several international naval coalitions has reduced the risk to commercial vessels. The shipping route has not seen a sinking since the first half of 2024, and there has not been a serious incident involving a Houthi strike on a vessel since September.

At the same time, logistical workarounds by the commercial transport sector have mitigated the disruption and overall risk to regional trade activity.

In terms of the hydrocarbons sector, the IMF expects the average price of oil to be $72.84 a barrel in 2025, compared to $81.29 a barrel in 2024. Alongside continuing Opec+ restrictions on oil production, this points to a slight weakening of oil revenues this year. Government spending plans among the region’s oil exporters are unlikely to be duly affected in the short term however, as such variables have already been factored into near-term expenditures.

Strong lead

The UAE tops the January 2025 MEED Economic Activity Index, with a forecast real GDP growth rate of 4.5%, broad fiscal surplus and strong non-oil growth backed by the ongoing strengthening of its projects market, which saw the award of $82bn-worth of contracts in 2024. This value exceeded project completions in the market in 2024 by almost $50bn and sits well above the long-term average.

Looking ahead, there are projects worth an estimated $8bn in the bidding phase.

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to grow by a similarly buoyant 4.6% in 2025. Although the kingdom is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year, this is largely a function of the government’s expansionary spending on strategic projects and development programmes.

Riyadh’s project spending hit new heights in 2024, with contract awards reaching a record value of $142bn and exceeding the value of project completions in the market by almost $90bn. The country also has an extraordinary $250bn-worth of project value currently under bid.

Moderate activity 

Fellow GCC members Oman, Qatar and Kuwait follow in the index in a tight cluster, supported by real GDP forecasts in the 2-3% range, fiscal projections for top-line surpluses and moderate projects market activity.

Oman’s projects market is the most buoyant, with contract awards growing to $11bn in 2024 – double the $5.5bn in completions.

Qatar’s project award activity meanwhile dipped to $16bn in 2024, below the country’s long-term averages, though it still outpaced the $9bn in project completions last year.

Kuwait’s project activity grew from $6.3bn in awards in 2023 to $9bn in 2024, outpacing completions by $3.5bn and broadly matching long-term contract award averages.

All three countries have strong project pipelines, with $15bn-$25bn-worth of tenders each in the bidding phase.

Much improved

Morocco, Algeria and Iraq follow with sharply improved scores compared with mid-2024, in part due to more buoyant economic projections, including real GDP growth forecasts in the 3%-4% range in 2025.

Though weighed upon by serious fiscal imbalances, all three countries have strongly improved project markets, with contract awards surging from $2.4bn to $8bn in Morocco between 2023 and 2024, from $3.7bn to $21bn in Algeria, and from $14bn to $24bn in Iraq. The awards in all three countries also surpassed last year’s project completions and historic award averages.

Market stragglers

Bahrain comes next in the index as the lowest-performing GCC nation for reasons unrelated to its real GDP performance, which sits around 3%, but instead due to its fiscal and project sector weakness.

Manama is overspending, but not on critical infrastructure. The result is a projects sector that saw just $2.6bn-worth of awards in 2024, well below the $7.5bn in completions, which included the end of work on the $4bn Sitra Refinery, and below the $3.8bn long-term average.

The index is rounded out by Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, whose economic situations are all fragile.

Jordan has a 2.5% growth projection, but high fiscal imbalance and unemployment. Subdued project activity in the country barely recovered to long-term averages in 2024 – after a dismal performance in 2023 – due to a $1bn liquefied natural gas terminal contract award.

Egypt, while projected for 4.1% growth in 2025, is grappling with 30% inflation, a deep fiscal deficit and a contracting projects sector. There were $19bn of awards in 2024, falling below both the 2023 figure and the long-term average for the market.

Tunisia, with a growth projection of just 1.6%, is failing across most metrics as it continues to grapple with a political and economic crisis. The country’s projects activity is no exception, with the value of contract awards in 2024 falling below 25% of the long-term average.

ABOUT THE INDEX

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13246496/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Egypt seeks consultant for major inland waterway study

    18 November 2025

    Egypt’s Transport Ministry has issued an expressions of interest (EOI) request, through the River Transport Authority, to appoint a consultancy firm for a study on a proposed inland waterway linking Lake Victoria to the Mediterranean.

    The consultant will carry out basin-wide data collection and prepare a strategic environmental and social assessment for the project.

    The assignment includes hydrological, topographic, bathymetric and geotechnical surveys across the Nile Basin.

    The consultancy is expected to run for about 15 months, starting in February or March 2026.

    Firms must submit EOIs by 6 December.

    The study forms part of the Vic-Med project, a multi-country plan to establish a continuous inland waterway from Lake Victoria to the Mediterranean Sea.

    The masterplan project aims to reduce transport costs for landlocked countries and provide a lower-carbon alternative to road freight along the Nile corridor

    The work is part of phase two, part one of the feasibility study, funded through a $2m grant from the New Partnership for Africa's Development – Infrastructure Project Preparation Facility (NEPAD–IPPF), the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) fund for early-stage project development.

    The first phase, completed in July 2019 with $650,000 in AfDB funding, developed the project’s legal and institutional framework and launched two regional inland water transport programmes.

    The second phase, valued at $11.7m, covers updated feasibility studies and expanded technical assessments supporting detailed engineering design and cost-benefit analysis in the next stage. 

    This phase also covers the establishment of a regional operating unit for the project in Cairo.

    READ THE NOVEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Mena players up the ante in global LNG production race; Investment takes UAE non-oil economy from strength to strength; Project finance activity draws international lenders back to market

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the November 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15108707/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Kuwait to make decision on four oil pipeline packages

    18 November 2025

     

    Kuwait is evaluating bids on four packages for a major pipeline project after prices were submitted earlier this month, according to industry sources.

    The four separate packages cover pipeline work in the north, south, east and west regions of the country, sources said.

    Although the total of all bids submitted by Kuwait-based Alghanim International General Trading & Contracting is the lowest at KD419m ($1.4bn), the company submitted the lowest individual bid on only one package, located in northern Kuwait.

    Its bid for the north Kuwait package was KD149.8m ($488.3m).

    Mechanical Engineering & Construction Company submitted the lowest bids for pipeline work on two packages located in the south and east of the country. 

    Both of these bids were valued at KD97,868,394 ($319m).

    Al-Dar Engineering & Construction Company is the low bidder on the fourth package, for pipe work in western Kuwait, submitting a bid of KD64,825,398 ($211.3m).

    Together, all four contracts are expected to be worth about $1.4bn when awarded.

    The scope of all four packages focuses on developing new flowlines and connecting pipelines for oil-producing wells and water wells.

    In some cases, companies are also required to replace old flowlines.

    The contracts are based on work orders, so when KOC needs to connect wells it will issue a request for work execution, industry sources said. 

    Kuwait is trying to boost project activity in its upstream sector.

    The country’s national oil company, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, is aiming to increase oil production capacity to 4 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2035.

    In August, Kuwait announced that it was producing 3.2 million b/d.

    Earlier this month, KOC said it was planning to spend KD1.2bn ($3.92bn) on its exploration drilling programme through 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15106496/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Indian firm wins Oman chemicals project EPC contract

    17 November 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Indian contractor Nuberg EPC has won a contract to perform engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on a project to build chlor alkali and calcium chloride plants in Oman for privately-owned Al-Ghaith Chemical Industries.

    The project involves expanding Al-Ghaith’s existing chlor alkali plant in Sur Industrial City, by adding 120 tonnes a day (t/d) of capacity, taking the unit’s total output capacity to 190 t/d. The project also involves building a calcium chloride plant that will have a production capacity of 80 t/d.

    Nuberg EPC said the contract is being executed on a lump sum turnkey basis, with its scope covering design, front-end engineering and design (feed), detailed engineering, procurement, fabrication, construction, commissioning and handover.

    Project execution is already under way, with completion targeted within 19 months, Nuberg EPC said.

    The project marks the second phase of Al-Ghaith’s integrated chemicals complex in Sur and represents a first-of-its-kind large-scale chlor alkali expansion in Oman.

    Nuberg EPC also performed EPC works on the original chlor alkali plant, which has a capacity of 70 t/d.

    In addition to the Oman project, Al-Ghaith has, in the previous decade, also brought on board Nuberg EPC for its chlor alkali and calcium chloride plants in Abu Dhabi. Those contracts covered the commissioning of a 60 t/d chlor alkali plant that was later expanded to 120 t/d, and the execution of a 125 t/d calcium chloride plant and a 50 t/d carbon dioxide plant.

    Nuberg EPC has also executed the expansion of a 45 t/d chlor alkali plant and a greenfield 80 t/d calcium chloride plant for Oman Chlorine in Sohar, increasing the total chlor alkali output capacity to 75 t/d.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15104096/main5048.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Egypt starts production from strategic gas field

    17 November 2025

    Egypt has started gas production from the West Burullus field in the Mediterranean Sea, after connecting the first wells to the national gas grid, according to a statement from the country’s Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry.

    Productivity testing showed an output rate approaching 45 million cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Kareem Badawi, Egypt’s Petroleum & Mineral Resources Minister, said he intends to accelerate development of the field and confirmed that work is under way to connect two additional wells, with the aim of increasing production to 75 million cf/d in the coming months.

    He added that the ministry aims to cut the county’s gas import bill by boosting domestic production.

    The operator of the concession is Cheiron, an Egyptian independent exploration and production company.

    Egypt’s oil ministry said in its statement that the West Burullus field development project represents a model for future integrated projects and investment plans.

    It said that a range of domestic and foreign companies are involved in bringing the field into production.

    In February, a banking consortium led by Banque du Caire, alongside Arab International Bank, Al-Baraka Bank Egypt and Saib Bank, arranged $75m in syndicated medium-term financing for Cheiron Egypt Delta, a subsidiary of the Cheiron Group.

    This financing will help cover part of the investment costs for the gas field development project.

    At the time, Cheiron said that the financing will provide up to 45.5% of the total $165m investment required for the project.

    READ THE NOVEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Mena players up the ante in global LNG production race; Investment takes UAE non-oil economy from strength to strength; Project finance activity draws international lenders back to market

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the November 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15102295/main3406.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Major Iraq refinery project stalls

    17 November 2025

     

    Construction has yet to start on Iraq’s Al-Faw Investment Refinery project due to a range of problems, according to industry sources.

    In May last year, a statement released by the Iraqi Prime Minister’s Office said that Iraq’s state-owned Southern Refineries Company and China National Chemical Engineering Company (CNCEC) had signed a contract to develop the project.

    Iraq’s Oil Ministry previously said the project would be worth $7bn-$8bn.

    One source said: “This project is failing to make progress despite the efforts of senior political figures in the country.”

    A meeting was chaired by Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani in August this year to discuss and try to resolve the problems that are stopping the commencement of construction, according to industry sources.

    It is believed that financing remains a key obstacle for the project.

    The Al-Faw project is part of the Iraqi government’s plan to increase Iraq’s refining capacities, attract foreign investment and increase the production of petroleum products domestically.

    The refinery will have a capacity of 300,000 barrels a day and will produce oil derivatives for both domestic and international markets.

    The project will be carried out in two stages.

    The first phase will involve refining operations, while the second will involve constructing a petrochemicals complex with a capacity of 3 million tonnes a year.

    The project also includes the construction of a 2,000MW power plant and the establishment of the Al-Faw Academy for Refinery Technology, to train 5,000 Iraqi workers that will eventually work at the facility.

    Hualu, a subsidiary of CNCEC, signed a preliminary principles agreement for the project in December 2021.

    At the time, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said that the project would have a value of $7bn-$8bn.

    Due to material price inflation since December 2021, some insiders believe that the project value may now be significantly higher.

    READ THE NOVEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Mena players up the ante in global LNG production race; Investment takes UAE non-oil economy from strength to strength; Project finance activity draws international lenders back to market

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the November 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15102287/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp