meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE maintains regional economic edge

14 January 2025

 

Heading into 2025, the UAE and Saudi Arabia continue to maintain their significant lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index. These opportune markets sit alongside three of their GCC peers – Oman, Qatar and Kuwait – as economies whose real GDP is supported by relatively robust hydrocarbon revenues. 

In 2025, the GCC economies are forecast to grow by an unweighted real GDP growth rate average of 3.3%, compared to just 1.4% in 2024, according to the latest IMF estimates. Across the countries featured in the index, the figure for 2025 was 3.2%, compared to 1.8% in 2024.

One significant reason for this uptick is the subsiding of the Red Sea shipping disruption. Risks remain, but a year of intensive maritime patrols by several international naval coalitions has reduced the risk to commercial vessels. The shipping route has not seen a sinking since the first half of 2024, and there has not been a serious incident involving a Houthi strike on a vessel since September.

At the same time, logistical workarounds by the commercial transport sector have mitigated the disruption and overall risk to regional trade activity.

In terms of the hydrocarbons sector, the IMF expects the average price of oil to be $72.84 a barrel in 2025, compared to $81.29 a barrel in 2024. Alongside continuing Opec+ restrictions on oil production, this points to a slight weakening of oil revenues this year. Government spending plans among the region’s oil exporters are unlikely to be duly affected in the short term however, as such variables have already been factored into near-term expenditures.

Strong lead

The UAE tops the January 2025 MEED Economic Activity Index, with a forecast real GDP growth rate of 4.5%, broad fiscal surplus and strong non-oil growth backed by the ongoing strengthening of its projects market, which saw the award of $82bn-worth of contracts in 2024. This value exceeded project completions in the market in 2024 by almost $50bn and sits well above the long-term average.

Looking ahead, there are projects worth an estimated $8bn in the bidding phase.

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to grow by a similarly buoyant 4.6% in 2025. Although the kingdom is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year, this is largely a function of the government’s expansionary spending on strategic projects and development programmes.

Riyadh’s project spending hit new heights in 2024, with contract awards reaching a record value of $142bn and exceeding the value of project completions in the market by almost $90bn. The country also has an extraordinary $250bn-worth of project value currently under bid.

Moderate activity 

Fellow GCC members Oman, Qatar and Kuwait follow in the index in a tight cluster, supported by real GDP forecasts in the 2-3% range, fiscal projections for top-line surpluses and moderate projects market activity.

Oman’s projects market is the most buoyant, with contract awards growing to $11bn in 2024 – double the $5.5bn in completions.

Qatar’s project award activity meanwhile dipped to $16bn in 2024, below the country’s long-term averages, though it still outpaced the $9bn in project completions last year.

Kuwait’s project activity grew from $6.3bn in awards in 2023 to $9bn in 2024, outpacing completions by $3.5bn and broadly matching long-term contract award averages.

All three countries have strong project pipelines, with $15bn-$25bn-worth of tenders each in the bidding phase.

Much improved

Morocco, Algeria and Iraq follow with sharply improved scores compared with mid-2024, in part due to more buoyant economic projections, including real GDP growth forecasts in the 3%-4% range in 2025.

Though weighed upon by serious fiscal imbalances, all three countries have strongly improved project markets, with contract awards surging from $2.4bn to $8bn in Morocco between 2023 and 2024, from $3.7bn to $21bn in Algeria, and from $14bn to $24bn in Iraq. The awards in all three countries also surpassed last year’s project completions and historic award averages.

Market stragglers

Bahrain comes next in the index as the lowest-performing GCC nation for reasons unrelated to its real GDP performance, which sits around 3%, but instead due to its fiscal and project sector weakness.

Manama is overspending, but not on critical infrastructure. The result is a projects sector that saw just $2.6bn-worth of awards in 2024, well below the $7.5bn in completions, which included the end of work on the $4bn Sitra Refinery, and below the $3.8bn long-term average.

The index is rounded out by Jordan, Egypt and Tunisia, whose economic situations are all fragile.

Jordan has a 2.5% growth projection, but high fiscal imbalance and unemployment. Subdued project activity in the country barely recovered to long-term averages in 2024 – after a dismal performance in 2023 – due to a $1bn liquefied natural gas terminal contract award.

Egypt, while projected for 4.1% growth in 2025, is grappling with 30% inflation, a deep fiscal deficit and a contracting projects sector. There were $19bn of awards in 2024, falling below both the 2023 figure and the long-term average for the market.

Tunisia, with a growth projection of just 1.6%, is failing across most metrics as it continues to grapple with a political and economic crisis. The country’s projects activity is no exception, with the value of contract awards in 2024 falling below 25% of the long-term average.

ABOUT THE INDEX

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13246496/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • SLB passes evaluation for Kuwait upstream project

    12 December 2025

    The US-based oilfield services company SLB, formerly Schlumberger, has passed the technical bid evaluation for a major project to develop Kuwait’s Mutriba oil field.

    The Houston-headquartered company was the only bidder to pass the technical evaluation for the Mutriba integrated project management (IPM) contract.

    The minimum passing technical evaluation score was 75%.

    The full list of bidders was:

    • SLB (US): 97%
    • Halliburton (US): 72%
    • Weatherford (US): 61.5%

    The decision was finalised at a meeting of the Higher Purchase Committee (HPC) of state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) on 20 November 2025.

    According to a document published earlier this year by KOC, the IPM tender for the Mutriba field aims to “accelerate production through a comprehensive study that includes economic feasibility evaluation, well planning and long-term sustainability strategies”.

    The field was originally discovered in 2009.

    Commercial production from the Mutriba field started earlier this year, on 15 June, after several wells were connected to production facilities.

    The field is located in a relatively undeveloped area in northwest Kuwait and spans more than 230 square kilometres.

    The oil at the Mutriba field has unusually high hydrogen sulfide content, which can be as much as 40%.

    This presents operational challenges requiring specialised technologies and safety measures.

    In order to start producing oil at the field, KOC deployed multiphase pumps to increase hydrocarbon pressure and enable transportation to the nearest Jurassic production facilities in north Kuwait.

    The company also built long-distance pipelines stretching 50 to 70 kilometres, using high-grade corrosion-resistant materials engineered to withstand the high hydrogen sulfide levels and ensure long-term reliability.

    KOC also commissioned the Mutriba long-term testing facility in northwest Kuwait, with a nameplate capacity of around 5,000 barrels of oil a day (b/d) and 5 million standard cubic feet of gas a day (mmscf/d).

    Once this facility was commissioned, production stabilised at 5,000 b/d and 7 mmscf/d.

    In documents published earlier this year, KOC said that starting production from the field had “laid a solid foundation” for the IPM contract by generating essential reservoir and surface data that will guide future development.

    Future output from the field is expected to range between 80,000 and 120,000 b/d, in addition to approximately 150 mmscf/d of gas.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15235579/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Dana Gas makes onshore discovery in Egypt

    12 December 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    UAE-based Dana Gas has made an onshore gas discovery in Egypt’s Nile Delta area, according to a statement from the company.

    The discovery was made by the drilling of the North El-Basant 1 exploratory well, and initial well results indicate estimated reserves of 15-25 billion cubic feet of gas.

    Production from the reserve is expected to exceed 8 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) once the well is connected to the national network.

    The North El-Basant 1 exploratory well was the fourth well in a campaign of 11 development and exploration wells.

    The campaign is being executed as part of the company’s $100m investment programme to support domestic gas production, increase reserves and meet growing energy demand.

    Earlier this year, Dana Gas completed the drilling of three wells, adding 10 million cf/d.

    The programme is expected to increase long-term production and add approximately 80 billion cubic feet of recoverable gas reserves, according to Dana Gas.

    Dana Gas expects to start drilling the fifth well in the programme, the Daffodil exploration well, in the first week of January 2026.

    Richard Hall, the chief executive of Dana Gas, said: “The latest drilling success reinforces the value of our investment programme in Egypt and highlights the significant remaining potential within the Nile Delta.”

    He added: “By increasing local gas production, the programme will help reduce Egypt’s reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fuel oil and is expected to generate more than $1bn in savings for the national economy over time.”

    Previously, Dana Gas signed an agreement with state-owned Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGas) to secure additional acreage under improved fiscal terms, and to accelerate drilling activity.

    Hall said: “We appreciate the strong cooperation from EGas and the ministry, and we remain committed to delivering the majority of our planned programme next year.

    “Regular and timely payments from our partners are crucial to sustaining our investment programme in Egypt."

    In November, a new gas discovery was made in Egypt’s Western Desert region by Khalda Petroleum Company, a joint venture of state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and US-headquartered Apache Corporation.

    Egypt also started gas production from the West Burullus field in the Mediterranean Sea, after connecting the first wells to the national gas grid.

    The country is currently pushing to increase gas production in order to meet domestic demand and reduce its import bill.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15235552/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • SAR to tender new phosphate rail track section in January

    12 December 2025

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabian Railways (SAR) is expected to float another multibillion-riyal tender to double the tracks on the existing phosphate railway network connecting the Waad Al-Shamal mines to Ras Al-Khair in the Eastern Province.

    MEED understands that the new tender – covering the second section of the track-doubling works, spanning more than 150 kilometres (km) – will be issued in January.

    The new tender follows SAR’s issuance of the tender for the project's first phase in November, which spans about 100km from the AZ1/Nariyah Yard to Ras Al-Khair.

    The scope includes track doubling, alignment modifications, new utility bridges, culvert widening and hydrological structures, as well as the conversion of the AZ1 siding into a mainline track.

    The scope also covers support for signalling and telecommunications systems.

    The tender notice was issued in late November, with a bid submission deadline of 20 January 2026.

    Switzerland-based engineering firm ARX is the project consultant.

    MEED understands that these two packages are the first of four that SAR is expected to tender for the phosphate railway line.

    The other packages expected to be tendered shortly include the depot and the systems package.

    In 2023, MEED reported that SAR was planning two projects to increase its freight capacity, including an estimated SR4.2bn ($1.1bn) project to install a second track along the North Train Freight Line and construct three new freight yards.

    Formerly known as the North-South Railway, the North Train is a 1,550km-long freight line running from the phosphate and bauxite mines in the far north of the kingdom to the Al-Baithah junction. There, it diverges into a line southward to Riyadh and a second line running east to downstream fertiliser production and alumina refining facilities at Ras Al-Khair on the Gulf coast.

    Adding a second track and the freight yards will significantly increase the network’s cargo-carrying capacity and facilitate increased industrial production. Project implementation is expected to take four years.

    State-owned SAR is also considering increasing the localisation of railway materials and equipment, including the construction of a cement sleeper manufacturing facility.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15229624/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dar Global to develop $4.2bn Oman mixed-use project

    10 December 2025

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia-headquartered real estate developer Dar Global has announced that it will develop a mixed-use project in Muscat at an estimated investment of RO1.6bn ($4.2bn).

    Dar Global will co-develop the Muscat Marine, Art & Digital District project with Oman's Art District Real Estate Development Company.

    The project will cover an area of over 1.5 million square metres (sq m) and will be developed in several phases over 12 years.

    The development will comprise a mix of residential communities, cultural venues, marinas, retail spaces, finance and business parks and hotels.

    Dar Global, a subsidiary of Dar Al-Arkan, was one of the first Saudi brands to list on the London Stock Exchange.

    Dar Al-Arkan established Dar Global in 2017 to focus on developing projects in the Middle East and Europe, including in Dubai, Qatar, Oman, London and the Costa del Sol in southern Spain.

    Dar Global has $12bn-worth of projects under development in six countries: the UAE, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UK and Spain.

    It completed three developments – the Urban Oasis and Da Vinci towers in Dubai and the Sidra gated community in Bosnia – in 2023.

    The company collaborates with global brands including Missoni, W Hotels, Versace, Elie Saab, Automobili Pagani and Automobili Lamborghini.

    In Oman, Dar Global is also developing the Aida project. In May, it awarded a contract to develop the villas and apartments as part of the project.

    According to an official statement, the construction works are expected to start immediately and the project is slated for completion in 2026.

    The main contract was awarded to local firm Al-Adrak Trading & Contracting.

    The latest announcement follows the awarding of contracts in June last year for the development of the first phase of the Aida project.

    The Aida project is being developed as a joint venture with Omran Group and the first phase is expected to be completed in 2027.

    UK analytics firm GlobalData forecasts that the Omani construction industry will expand at an annual average growth rate of 4.2% in 2025-28. Growth in the country will be supported by rising government investments in renewable energy, the transport infrastructure and the housing sector, all as part of Oman's Vision 2040 strategy.

    Growth during the forecast period will also be supported by increasing hospitality sector investments, with the government planning to invest RO11.9bn ($31bn) in tourism development projects by 2040 and supporting the construction of several hospitality projects.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15222694/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contract award nears for Saudi Defence Ministry headquarters

    10 December 2025

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry (MoD) is preparing to award the contract to build a new headquarters building, as part of its P-563 programme in Riyadh.

    MEED understands that bid evaluation has reached advanced stages and the contract award is imminent.

    The MoD issued the tender in April. The commercial bids were submitted in September, as MEED reported.

    Located to the northwest of Riyadh, the P-563 programme includes the development of facilities and infrastructure to support the MoD’s broader initiatives under the kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy.

    It covers the construction of:

    • A new military city featuring the MoD headquarters, support and logistics facilities, a residential and commercial community and space for future command centres
    • A National Defence University with a library, conference centre and academic buildings
    • A self-sustaining Joint Forces Command compound located approximately 50 kilometres from the military city

    The budget for the entire programme is expected to be $10bn-$12bn.

    In September 2023, MEED reported that Spain-headquartered Typsa had won two contracts for the project.

    The first contract, worth $11.4m, included data management, geographic information systems management, geotechnical reporting and the preparation of the phase one final traffic report. The contract duration was 270 days from the notice to proceed.

    The second contract, valued at $10.8m, involved preparing four conceptual masterplans for the P-563 site. It was set to last 255 days from the notice to proceed.

    These followed a $290m consultancy contract awarded to Typsa in March of the same year. The single-award task order covered a three-year base period, with an optional two-year extension.

    Typsa’s scope of work included programme management planning, communications, change and quality management and cost and schedule tracking.

    It also included design requirements, codes, standards and submission requirements, programme guidance, study integration, risk analysis and management, design reviews and a programme-of-work breakdown plan.

    READ THE DECEMBER 2025 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Prospects widen as Middle East rail projects are delivered; India’s L&T storms up MEED’s EPC contractor ranking; Manama balances growth with fiscal challenges

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the December 2025 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > BAHRAIN MARKET FOCUS: Manama pursues reform amid strain
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/15222401/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal