meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE lenders chart a route to growth

10 April 2023

 

International markets may have been spooked by challenges in the global banking system that provide an eery reminder of past problems, but UAE lenders have little reason to fear that this year will interrupt the progress seen in 2022 as profits swelled on the back of an economy in recovery mode.  

Contagion fears may be misplaced. UAE banks had minimal exposure to the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank. Unlike Saudi Arabia and Qatar, there was no UAE exposure to Credit Suisse – the troubled Swiss lender swallowed up by its larger rival UBS last month.

Although UAE lending rates are not as vibrant as some of its neighbours, with nothing to rival the housing finance-linked boom in Saudi Arabia, the country’s banks have nonetheless shown some impressive performance metrics. Overall sector profits grew by 31 per cent in 2022, while assets grew by 10.6 per cent, according to figures collated by KPMG.

Profitability of the four largest lenders, First Abu Dhabi Bank (Fab), Emirates NBD, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) and Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB), which control almost three-quarters of the banking system, exceeded pre-pandemic levels in 2022  – reflecting strong growth in interest income and normalised provisioning charges, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

Leading the pack, Emirates NBD showed a 40 per cent profit growth to AED13bn ($3.5bn), helped by a notably strong fourth-quarter performance that saw profits up by 94 per cent in year-on-year terms to AED3.9bn ($1.06bn) amid improving margins and a lower cost of risk.

DIB, the other Dubai lender of the big four UAE lenders, reported net profits up 26 per cent to AED5.5bn ($1.5bn), while ADCB reported a 23 per cent increase to AED6.4bn ($1.74bn). Fab, the UAE’s largest lender, had a more modest 7 per cent increase in net profits to AED13.4bn ($3.65bn).

Stabilising fundamentals

Banks can be confident that the prime source of their impressive profitability is unlikely to fade this year, given the global interest rate cycle. This continues last year’s picture. Net interest margins (NIMs) for UAE-listed banks grew 26 basis points (bps) in the fourth quarter of 2022, reaching 3 per cent for the first time, according to Kamco Invest Research.

“The interest rate environment reversed in 2022, driving aggregate growth of 28 per cent in the banks’ net interest income,” says Nitish Bhojnagarwala, senior credit officer at Moody’s.

“The growth reflected increasing asset yields, driven by rising interest rates, which more than offset higher funding costs.”

While the banks’ funding costs have increased, says Bhojnagarwala, they did not do so at the same rate, reflecting efforts to optimise their deposit mix and achieve strong zero or low-cost current and savings account balances, supporting margin growth.

NIMs should remain strong this year, not least given the continued cycle of rate rises emanating from the US Federal Reserve, which the UAE Central Bank tracks. The latter hiked its base rate by 25 bps to 5.5 per cent in March after the Fed hiked its base rate by a quarter per cent.

Some UAE lenders have also flagged priorities beyond fattening the bottom line. DIB said that given the rate environment and surplus liquidity, it had made a deliberate tactical move to support large corporate and public sector entities in adjusting and aligning their balance sheet in the new medium-term environment.

Elevated provisioning

Despite the strong conditions for profit growth, UAE banks will have a conservative strain in their approach to 2023, conscious of still elevated non-performing loan (NPL) ratios.

The big four banks’ NPL ratio declined to 5.3 per cent as of December 2022 from 5.9 per cent a year earlier.

“It remains high relative to the Gulf Cooperation Council region owing to the slower write-off policy of the UAE banks,” says Bhojnagarwala.

Coverage ratios have increased for the big four banks, standing at 100 per cent at year-end 2022, from 80 per cent a year earlier. Dubai’s ENDB was the standout bank here, with a coverage ratio of 145 per cent.

This reflects a broader tendency among banks to book higher provisions, with Dubai’s largest bank increasing absolute provisions in the fourth quarter of 2022 by $142.4m, reaching $517.9m.

Overall provisions booked by UAE-listed banks showed the biggest quarter-on-quarter percentage increase in the GCC of 40.2 per cent in the last quarter of 2022 to reach $1.23bn, says Kamco.

Moody’s anticipates loan loss provisions to stabilise at the current, pre-pandemic level and banks’ NPL ratio to improve modestly, driving higher coverage over the next 12-18 months.

“When we look at overall loan loss provisioning, it has fallen for two of the largest four banks, but in terms of cost of risk, fell by a collective 0.8 per cent from 1 per cent in 2021 and is now in line with pre-pandemic levels,” says Bhojnagarwala.

Evidence of faster payment settlements will bolster confidence levels among banks that credit losses will not rise this year. That may, in turn, afford more scope for lenders to scale back on provisioning at some point in the future.

Near future risk

Despite the improving conditions, analysts caution about potential economic headwinds.

Ratings agency S&P Global issued a warning earlier this year that real GDP growth could ease in 2023 and that the slowing of the non-oil sector will lower demand for credit. It sees the UAE property sector, which experienced strong demand in 2022 on the residential side, witnessing a moderation in price and rental increases this year.

UAE banks may need to countenance the prospect of higher problem loans in sectors such as construction and trade, as well as for some small and midsize enterprises. The latter is starting to feel the impact of more expensive credit in light of the higher interest rates.

Taken in context, this is unlikely to ruffle the Central Bank’s feathers. The country’s mix of elevated provisioning and strong profit performances suggest UAE banks will be suitably positioned to overcome such hurdles. And with healthy provisioning levels factored into the equation, the feeling remains that this year will continue the recovery record started in 2022.

This month's special report on the UAE also includes: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10744976/main.gif
James Gavin

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia battery storage awards provide fresh lift

    24 August 2026

    Commentary
    Mark Dowdall
    Power & water editor

    The latest battery storage awards provide a welcome injection of investment into Saudi Arabia’s power market, which has seen a sharp slowdown in contract awards this year.

    Saudi Power Procurement Company’s four Group 1 storage service agreements, announced last week, are worth more than $1.16bn and cover 2,000MW of capacity.

    That is significant against the wider market. According to regional project tracker MEED Projects, Saudi Arabia recorded $19.7bn in power sector contract awards in the first seven months of 2025, compared with just $2.5bn in new awards in the same period this year.

    The battery energy storage system (bess) awards therefore account for a sizeable share of the activity recorded so far this year and provide a much-needed source of new contracting activity.

    Importantly, this is not a one-off. SPPC issued the request for proposal (RFP) for its second group of bess projects in July, covering six projects with a combined capacity of 3,000MW and 12,000MWh.

    With the Group 1 tender taking around 18 months from RFP to contract award, it is reasonable to expect Group 2 contracts to be signed in 2027.

    At the same time, the awards for six independent renewable plants under Round 7 of Saudi Arabia’s National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP), with a combined capacity of 5,300MW, are also likely to move into next year, with the latest bid deadlines now extending into September.

    Although a substantial pipeline remains in procurement, it is only once these projects move from tender to award and into construction that this pipeline translates into market activity.

    It is important that these tenders continue to progress at the pace established by the early rounds of Saudi Arabia’s renewable energy programme and now also SPPC’s independent storage provider bess scheme.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18962923/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qatar receives bids for major power grid expansion

    24 August 2026

     

    Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) has received bids for several packages under a major power transmission expansion project tendered in April.

    The project covers new substations at multiple voltage levels, as well as the supply and installation of 400kV extra-high-voltage power cables. The overall scheme is estimated to cost $650m.

    It is being tendered as part of Kahramaa’s 2026 procurement plan, which includes 198 tenders with a total estimated value of QR21.4bn ($5.9bn).

    According to sources, bids were submitted for the following packages on 20 August:

    • Substation packages S1 and S2, covering new 132/11kV substations (estimated cost: $200m)
    • Package S3, covering new 66/11kV substations ($50m)
    • Package S4, including a new 400/220/132kV substation, as well as upgrades and modifications to existing 400kV and 220kV substations ($200m)
    • Package S5, covering new 132/11kV substations and upgrades to existing 132kV and 66kV substations ($100m)
    • Cable packages C1 and C2, covering 400kV cables ($100m)

    Kahramaa previously stated that foreign companies not registered in Qatar would be allowed to participate in the bidding, subject to meeting specified conditions, including registration and certification requirements.

    In June, the electricity and water utility awarded contracts worth more than QR2.2bn ($604m) to expand the electricity transmission network in the country’s western region.

    The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works will support the integration of the 2GW Dukhan solar power project into Qatar’s national electricity grid. The scope includes new and upgraded substations, as well as the installation of underground cables and overhead transmission lines.

    Kahramaa said contracts were awarded to local firm Voltage Engineering, Turkiye’s Best & Betas Consortium, India’s Larsen & Toubro and South Korea’s LS Cable.

    Of Kahramaa’s 2026 procurement plan, electricity transmission projects account for QR8.9bn ($2.4bn) and include the construction of new 400/132kV substations in Al-Wukair and Al-Mashaf, as well as the expansion of 400kV substations at Ras Laffan.

    These also cover the installation of 132kV underground cables between Al-Sailiya and Al-Rayyan over a 24-kilometre route, as well as upgrades to the 400kV and 220kV networks.

    Additionally, there are 64 planned electricity distribution projects managed by the Electricity Distribution Department that cover the medium-voltage and low-voltage networks throughout Doha and the regional municipalities. 

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18962223/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Maaden closes $1bn term loan and credit facility

    24 August 2026

    Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) has announced the closing of its inaugural international syndicated term loan and revolving credit facilities, worth a total of $1bn.

    The $500m international term loan facility will support Maaden’s growth agenda and general corporate purposes, including funding growth projects across its portfolio.

    The $500m international revolving credit facility, which is expected to remain undrawn, provides additional committed funding capacity “as Maaden continues to scale its business and execute its long-term growth strategy”.

    The transaction “was met with strong support from the international banking market, attracting participation from a diverse group of leading international banks across key global financial markets”, including the US, Canada, Europe, China and Japan. The facilities were oversubscribed, Maaden said.

    ALSO READ: Maaden and Aramco sign deal to create joint venture

    “The level of demand reflects the global banking community’s confidence in Maaden’s financial strength, strategic direction and ambitious growth plans,” the Saudi state miner said in its statement.

    “The facilities mark another significant milestone in Maaden’s funding journey – further diversifying its sources of funding and broadening its access to global capital providers as the company continues to advance its long-term growth ambitions.

    “Maaden continues to make significant progress across its growth pipeline, expanding production, advancing major projects and accelerating exploration as it builds a world-class mining company at the heart of Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation.”

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18962086/main4516.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Dubai inflation slows to 5.3% in July

    24 August 2026

    Dubai’s annual inflation rate slowed to 5.3% in July, down from 5.7% in June, as a decline in transport costs eased pressure on consumer prices, according to Emirates NBD.

    The bank said the slowdown supported its view that price growth peaked at mid-year, and it expects inflation to continue easing through the rest of 2026. Monthly price growth slowed to 0.1% in July, from 0.4% in June, the weakest pace since February.

    Transport was the clearest sign of the moderation. Annual price growth in the category slowed to 11.9% in July, from 18.1% in June, as transport costs fell 3.7% over the month. Fuel and lubricant inflation eased to 24.1% year on year, from 48.3%, tracking a decline in local petrol prices.

    Petrol remains the main swing factor in the emirate’s inflation. Transport contributed 1.1 percentage points to headline inflation in July, down from 1.7 percentage points in June. Emirates NBD said the relief may prove temporary, with Super 98 petrol prices climbing 5.9% in August to leave them 33.8% higher than a year earlier. The bank expects headline inflation to edge higher in the August figures before easing again later in the year.

    The UAE deregulated petrol and diesel prices in 2015 and reviews them monthly against global prices, meaning changes in global fuel costs pass through to consumers quickly. Transport, which includes fuel, accounts for 9% of Dubai’s consumer price index basket.

    Housing remained the largest contributor to inflation even as its impulse faded. Housing and utilities, which account for about two-fifths of the basket, added 2.8 percentage points to headline inflation. Annual price growth in the category slowed to 7.0%, from 7.4% in January.

    Food inflation edged up to 7.8% year on year, from 7.6% in June, which the bank attributed to lingering supply-chain disruption from the regional conflict. Inflation in restaurants and hotels accelerated to 4.5% year on year, from 1.7% in June.

    Emirates NBD forecasts inflation of 2.9% by year-end but said risks to that projection were tilted to the upside, given lingering pressures in food and housing.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18961735/main1839.jpg
    Colin Foreman
  • Libya oil project on track for 2027 completion

    24 August 2026

     

    The project to develop a workers’ camp at Libya’s Erawin oil field is on track for completion next year, according to industry sources.

    The project, estimated to be worth about $50m, is being executed by the Libyan oil services company Al-Saraya Al-Hamara, headquartered in the city of Sebha.

    The Libyan company was awarded the contract in February 2025.

    The scope of the project includes:

    • Construction of an accommodation camp
    • Construction of the camp maintenance warehouse
    • Construction of the camp office
    • Construction of a fire brigade shelter
    • Construction of a kitchen and mess hall
    • Construction of a mosque
    • Construction of a laundry room
    • Construction of a clinic
    • Construction of parking facilities
    • Installation of a fire and gas system
    • Installation of a power generator
    • Construction of associated facilities

    The client on the project is Zallaf Libya Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Company.

    Zallaf Libya Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Company was established in Libya in 2013 and is wholly owned by Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation.

    The Erawin field development project is located about 800 kilometres south of Tripoli and 100km southwest of the El-Sharara field.

    Libya shipped its first cargo of crude from the Erawin oil field in November 2023.

    The shipment departed from Libya’s Zawiyah port and consisted of 600,000 barrels of crude.

    Australia-based Worley Parsons was appointed as the front-end engineering and design (feed) contractor for the early production facility project in 2019.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18953632/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp