meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE is poised to weather the storm

25 April 2025

Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editor

Despite the rising turmoil in global markets due to US-imposed tariffs, the UAE is well positioned to cope thanks to a combination of strong fiscal and macroeconomic fundamentals and government-supported project spending.

Abu Dhabi is set to comfortably achieve a fiscal surplus for the fifth year running in 2025, even with the recent dip in global oil prices, which has still brought prices nowhere near the $50-a-barrel fiscal breakeven point that according to the IMF would tip the UAE into the red. Also working in the government’s favour is the expected increase in the country’s oil production output due to the phasing out of some of its voluntary production cuts this year. 

Beyond oil, the UAE’s greater degree of non-oil diversification relative to other oil-exporting markets in the Gulf and wider region provide it with a more stable revenue base, while the country’s financial institutions remain on a strong growth heading – thanks to their burgeoning project finance loan books.

The market confidence is also reflected in the growth of residential property sales in Dubai by 30% in 2024 – with housing being one of the main contributions to the albeit restrained 2% consumer price inflation in the country at large. 

Economic strength

The UAE also retains its role as an economic beacon for the Middle East and beyond. Dubai real estate purchases by Chinese and Russian buyers saw double-digit growth in 2024 and could account for more than 30% of sales in 2025.

The UAE economy is being staunchly supported by both public and private spending in the projects sector, which hit $94bn in contract awards for the second year running, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects – far in excess of the $30bn average in the three years before.

The projects boom is being driven by a combination of expansionary government spending on infrastructure and renewed investment in property and real estate by both state-owned and private developers alike. There are about $140bn-worth of projects currently under execution in the energy, infrastructure and utilities sectors, and a similar figure in the building sector alone.

This buoyancy is continuing in 2025, with the $27bn in new project awards to date outstripping the value of project completions by a factor of almost three and setting the market on track for another exceptional year.

Abu Dhabi is meanwhile hedging its geopolitical fortunes by promising to invest $1.4tn into the US over 10 years – a pledge that will both secure access to the US’ dominant technology market and please the transactional US president.

While the UAE was only ever in line for the minimum 10% reciprocal tariff imposed as a blanket measure across the world, it does the country no harm at all to build up additional political capital in Washington ahead of whatever whim next takes hold in the office of the presidency.

 

MEED’s May 2025 report on the UAE includes:

> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
> BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era
> UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
> DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
> POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
> TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push
> DATABANK: UAE growth prospects head north

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13726696/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Saudi Arabia tenders Jeddah-Mecca highway PPP

    8 May 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Roads General Authority (RGA) and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP) have tendered the contract for the development of the Jeddah-Mecca highway project.

    The tender was issued on 19 April, with a bid submission deadline of 19 August.

    The scope of the tender is split into two sections: development of motor service areas (MSA) and highway services. 

    Under the MSA component, the company will develop, permit, finance, design, engineer, procure, construct, complete, test, commission, insure, operate and maintain three MSAs along the highway.

    The contract term is 25 years, including two years of the construction period.

    Each MSA plot will cover 34,500 square metres and will include facilities such as fuel stations, electric vehicle charging, truck services, tyre and oil change, car wash and repair, retail and food outlets, ATMs, restrooms, mosques, parking, landscaping and other associated utilities.

    The highway services component will include insurance, operation and maintenance of highway assets for 10 years.

    The 64-kilometre (km) Jeddah-Mecca highway has four lanes in each direction. The construction works on 51km are complete, while the rest is under construction and scheduled for completion in 2027.

    In March, the RGA and NCP prequalified three bidders to develop the project. These were:

    • Algihaz Holding / ICA Construction (local/Turkiye)
    • Lamar Holding / Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation (Bahrain/China)
    • Mada International Holding (local)

    The expression of interest notice for the project was first issued in October 2024, as MEED reported.

    The project is one of four planned highway schemes in the kingdom’s privatisation and public-private partnership (P&PPP) pipeline.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16731199/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • US sanctions Iraq’s deputy oil minister

    8 May 2026

    The US has sanctioned Iraq’s Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly, in another blow for the country’s oil and gas sector.

    In a statement released by the US Treasury, it said that he “abuses his position to facilitate the diversion of oil to be sold for the benefit of the Iranian regime and its proxy militias in Iraq”.

    The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (Ofac) has also designated three senior leaders of the militias Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq. 

    In its statement, it said that the US will continue to hold these groups and other militias in Iraq, such as Kata’ib Hizballah, accountable for their attacks against US personnel and civilians, diplomatic facilities and businesses across Iraq.

    Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, said: “Like a rogue gang, the Iranian regime is pillaging resources that rightfully belong to the Iraqi people.”

    He added: “Treasury will not stand idly by as Iran's military exploits Iraqi oil to fund terrorism against the United States and our partners.”

    Ofac said that it designated Iraq’s deputy minister of oil on 7 May because he had been “instrumental in facilitating the diversion of Iraqi oil products to benefit known Iran-affiliated oil smuggler Salim Ahmed Said, as well as Iran-backed terrorist militia Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq (AAH)”.

    It added: “For years, Maarij has used his official positions, first as the head of the Iraqi parliament’s oil and gas committee, and then within the Iraq Ministry of Oil, to enrich Said, AAH, and by extension, Iran.”

    The US Treasury said that it designated Said in June 2025 for running a network of companies selling Iranian oil falsely declared as Iraqi oil to avoid sanctions.

    In its statement, it said: “Integral to this operation was Said’s ability to obtain favoured access to Iraqi oil and procure forged documentation from Iraqi government officials, legitimising illicit oil.

    “To that end, Said was responsible for bribing complicit officials in the Iraqi government, as well as reportedly installing Maarij in his official position.”

    Since 2018, Maarij has held several positions in Iraq’s Oil Ministry, including head of the licensing and contracts office, deputy minister, and acting oil minister. 

    The US Treasury said that, in his official capacities, Maarij enabled Said to illicitly procure oil products by granting exportation rights to Said’s companies. 

    It claimed that Maarij authorised trucking several million dollars’ worth of oil a day from the Qayarah oil field to VS Oil Terminal in Khor Zubayr for export.

    The US sanctioned VS Oil Terminal in July last year.

    The US Treasury said that VS Oil oversaw the mixing of Iranian oil with Iraqi oil before being shipped to market. 

    It also said that Maarij is also responsible for falsifying documentation on the provenance of oil for Said’s network, enabling it to be smuggled to market disguised as purely Iraqi oil.

    Neither Iraq nor Iran has responded to the announcement of the new sanctions.

    The sanctions were announced as the US and Iran battle over control of the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen significant disruption to shipping since the US and Israel started their war with Iran on 28 February 2026.

    Iraq’s oil and gas sector is currently going through a crisis due to the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused the country’s oil exports to collapse.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16729987/main.png
    Wil Crisp
  • Sabic registers profit in first quarter of 2026

    8 May 2026

    Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) returned to profit in the first quarter of 2026, posting a net income of SR13.2m ($3.52m) compared to a SR1.21bn loss a year earlier. 

    The Saudi petrochemicals ​giant posted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of SR4.15bn for the three months to 31 March, up 25% from the previous quarter.

    The company’s revenue fell 6% quarter-on-quarter to SR26.15bn ($6.97m).

    Adjusted net income was recorded in at SR816m, compared to a loss in the previous quarter, while adjusted earnings per share stood at SR0.27.

    Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes rose to SR1.45bn, an increase of SR1.01bn from the prior quarter.

    Sabic said its net position shifted to a debt of SR2.77bn at the end of March, from a net cash position of SR3.61bn at the end of 2025.

    “Our transformation journey continues to deliver performance improvements that unlock greater value for our shareholders. We realised $220m at the Ebitda level on a recurring basis during the first quarter of 2026, in line with our planned improvement rate. This keeps us on track towards our cumulative 2030 annual target of $3bn, consisting of $1.4bn in cost excellence and $1.6bn in value creation,” Sabic CEO Faisal Alfaqeer said.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16719476/main1840.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Dubai extends bids for Hassyan SWRO pipeline packages

    7 May 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has extended the bid submission deadlines for two water transmission pipeline packages linked to phase two of the Hassyan seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant in Dubai.

    The tenders cover the supply, installation, testing and commissioning works for glass reinforced epoxy (GRE) water transmission pipelines. The project will enable potable water to be transmitted from the phase two plant into Dubai’s transmission network.

    The tender bond for the first package is AED9.6m ($2.6mn). The tender bond for the second project is AED17.9m. The deadlines for the two projects have been pushed back to 2 June and 4 June, respectively.

    Local firms Al-Nasr Contracting, Tristar E&C and Wade Adams, along with UAE firm Binladin Contracting Group, are among the companies expected to submit bids for the main contracts for these projects.

    In April, Dewa issued two separate tenders for transmission projects in the emirate.

    The first tender covers the supply, installation, testing and commissioning of GRE water transmission pipelines and associated works at several locations in Dubai. The closing date for submissions is 4 June. Bidders are required to provide a tender bond of AED9m ($2.45m).

    The second tender relates to 132kV cable works and associated modifications at several substations, including the Autosouq, Crystal and Danaro Road substations. The package also includes a new 132kV cable circuit and cable shifting works linked to the DXB INTRL 400/132kV substation.

    The bid submission deadline is 11 June, with a required tender bond of AED17.5m.

    In January, Dewa announced that construction of the 180 million imperial gallons a day phase one of the Hassyan SWRO independent water project was 90% complete.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16716599/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Teams form for Qiddiya high-speed rail PPP

    7 May 2026

     

    Firms are forming joint ventures as part of a public-private partnership (PPP) package to bid for the upcoming works on the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.

    The latest development follows Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, Qiddiya Investment Company and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP receiving prequalification statements from firms by 30 April for the PPP package of the rail project.

    The consortiums that are planning to bid for the PPP package are:

    • McQuarie / Hitachi / Keolis / Albawani / WeBuild / Hyundai / HyundaiRotem
    • ⁠Plenary / Siemens / MTR / FCC / Nesma & Partners / Freyssinet
    • ⁠Vision Invest / CRRC / Mapa 
    • Mada International / ⁠Renfe / Alstom / Hassan Allam Construction / El-Seif Engineering Contracting / China State Construction Engineering Corporation / Limak Holding
    • Lamar Holding / Talgo / Mermec / China Harbour Engineering Company / Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting

    The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, and a project briefing session was held on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.

    The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will cover 84 kilometres, connecting King Salman International airport and King Abdullah Financial District with Qiddiya City.

    The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.

    There are five stations planned: Qiddiya Grand Central Station, Qiddiya Uptown Station, King Abdullah Financial District, Terminal 6 King Salman International Airport (KSIA) and Iconic Terminal at KSIA.

    Last month, MEED exclusively reported that contractors had submitted their prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing package by 16 April.

    In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project. UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser, and Ashurst is the legal adviser.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16716585/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal