UAE is poised to weather the storm
25 April 2025
Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editor
Despite the rising turmoil in global markets due to US-imposed tariffs, the UAE is well positioned to cope thanks to a combination of strong fiscal and macroeconomic fundamentals and government-supported project spending.
Abu Dhabi is set to comfortably achieve a fiscal surplus for the fifth year running in 2025, even with the recent dip in global oil prices, which has still brought prices nowhere near the $50-a-barrel fiscal breakeven point that according to the IMF would tip the UAE into the red. Also working in the government’s favour is the expected increase in the country’s oil production output due to the phasing out of some of its voluntary production cuts this year.
Beyond oil, the UAE’s greater degree of non-oil diversification relative to other oil-exporting markets in the Gulf and wider region provide it with a more stable revenue base, while the country’s financial institutions remain on a strong growth heading – thanks to their burgeoning project finance loan books.
The market confidence is also reflected in the growth of residential property sales in Dubai by 30% in 2024 – with housing being one of the main contributions to the albeit restrained 2% consumer price inflation in the country at large.
Economic strength
The UAE also retains its role as an economic beacon for the Middle East and beyond. Dubai real estate purchases by Chinese and Russian buyers saw double-digit growth in 2024 and could account for more than 30% of sales in 2025.
The UAE economy is being staunchly supported by both public and private spending in the projects sector, which hit $94bn in contract awards for the second year running, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects – far in excess of the $30bn average in the three years before.
The projects boom is being driven by a combination of expansionary government spending on infrastructure and renewed investment in property and real estate by both state-owned and private developers alike. There are about $140bn-worth of projects currently under execution in the energy, infrastructure and utilities sectors, and a similar figure in the building sector alone.
This buoyancy is continuing in 2025, with the $27bn in new project awards to date outstripping the value of project completions by a factor of almost three and setting the market on track for another exceptional year.
Abu Dhabi is meanwhile hedging its geopolitical fortunes by promising to invest $1.4tn into the US over 10 years – a pledge that will both secure access to the US’ dominant technology market and please the transactional US president.
While the UAE was only ever in line for the minimum 10% reciprocal tariff imposed as a blanket measure across the world, it does the country no harm at all to build up additional political capital in Washington ahead of whatever whim next takes hold in the office of the presidency.

MEED’s May 2025 report on the UAE includes:
> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
> BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era
> UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
> DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
> POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
> TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push
> DATABANK: UAE growth prospects head north
Exclusive from Meed
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Contractor wins $197m Doha infrastructure works6 November 2026
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Stakeholders aim to sign Iraq pipeline deal by year end6 November 2026
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Taqa shortlists 17 contractors for Mirfa-Liwa scheme6 November 2026
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Gulf conflict cuts Emirates Group profit by 66%6 November 2026
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King Salman airport tenders roads and utilities package6 November 2026
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Related Articles
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Contractor wins $197m Doha infrastructure works6 November 2026

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Qatar’s Public Works Authority (Ashghal) has awarded an estimated QR722m ($197m) contract to develop roads and infrastructure north of Al-Rifaa Street in Doha.
The contract was awarded to local firm Tadmur Contracting Company.
Six other contractors submitted bids:
- Qatar Trading & Contracting Group ($244m)
- Iris Construction Tourism Industry & Trade ($259m)
- Lotus Trading & Contracting ($260m)
- Generic Engineering Technologies & Contracting ($261m)
- Alghanim International / National Industrial Contracting ($268m)
- Hamad Bin Khalid Contracting Company ($281m)
The scope of work covers the construction of more than 34 kilometres of roads, dedicated plot developments, site clearance, backfill and earthworks.
The package also requires the installation of surface and groundwater drainage systems, a foul-water drainage network and treated sewage effluent lines.
In addition, the contractor will deliver a dedicated pumping station, an emergency flood area pond, 3,735 car parking spaces, road cross-sectional elements and verge parking bays.
Secondary infrastructure works include electrical distribution, water mains, utility lines, manholes, gully pots and house connections, along with kerbing, road pavement works, landscaping, street lighting, road markings and directional signage.
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Stakeholders aim to sign Iraq pipeline deal by year end6 November 2026

Stakeholders expect a key contract to be signed before the end of the year for the development of a major oil export pipeline network in Iraq, according to industry sources.
Iraq and Syria’s governments, state-owned oil companies and a consortium led by Qatar’s UCC are currently discussing the terms.
If all parties agree to the proposed deal, the UCC-led coalition will become the selected developer responsible for tendering engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the project.
The consortium includes US-based Chevron, the investment company TI Capital and France’s TotalEnergies.
The proposed plan will use a fast-track framework to bring the pipelines online as quickly as possible.
One source said: “The plan that is being discussed is highly unusual, because it is such a large-scale pipeline project and it would be brought online in a relatively short timeframe.”
A team from UCC is currently in Iraq for meetings with government officials to discuss the project, one source said.
The project will be focused on four pipeline packages:
- Basra to Najaf
- Najaf to Haditha
- Haditha to Fish Khapour
- Haditha to Banias Port in Syria
In July, Iraq’s cabinet approved state-owned Basra Oil Company signing a ​heads of agreement and a non-disclosure agreement with the UCC-led consortium to explore possible future oil pipeline projects.
Under the terms of the agreement, the consortium is preparing technical and financial feasibility studies for strategic export pipeline projects.
Also in July, US-based KBR was awarded a consultancy contract for the section of pipeline due to extend from Basra to Haditha.
In April, Iraq announced the allocation of $1.5bn for the Basra-Haditha route, while the larger scheme is estimated at around $5bn.
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Taqa shortlists 17 contractors for Mirfa-Liwa scheme6 November 2026

Up to 17 contractors have been invited to submit bids for a major water transmission and distribution scheme serving Mirfa, Madinat Zayed and Liwa in Abu Dhabi, a source close to the project has confirmed to MEED.
The project, originally estimated to cost $775m, comprises a water transmission system from Mirfa, alongside distribution networks serving farms and settlements in Abu Dhabi’s western region.
In October, MEED exclusively reported that a request for proposals had been issued, with bids due on 5 January 2027, following an extension from the initial deadline of 11 November 2026.
The Mirfa-Liwa scheme has been in procurement for several years and was previously tendered in December 2024 as an engineering, procurement and construction scheme, divided between transmission and distribution works.
As MEED understands, it was recently re-tendered under a design, build and operate model, extending the contractor’s responsibilities to operating the infrastructure after construction.
According to sources, the full list of contractors invited to bid for the tender includes:
- Afcons Infrastructure (India)
- Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (Saudi Arabia)
- China Machinery Engineering Corporation (China)
- China National Chemical Engineering (China)
- China Tiesiju Civil Engineering Group (China)
- Danway Electrical & Mechanical Engineering (UAE)
- Emarat Aloula Contracting (UAE)
- FCC Aqualia (Spain)
- Gulf Contractors Company (UAE)
- Hydropower Energy & General Construction (UAE)
- Jereh Oil & Gas Engineering Corporation (China)
- Mapa (Turkiye)
- Nesma & Partners Contracting Company (Saudi Arabia)
- Orascom Construction (Egypt)
- Power Construction Corporation of China (China)
- Tecton Engineering & Construction (UAE)
- Tristar Engineering & Construction (UAE)
According to details seen by MEED, the scope includes a pumping station at Mirfa with a capacity of 128 million imperial gallons a day, approximately 125 kilometres of transmission pipelines to Muzairah, with branches to Madinat Zayed and Liwa Summit, and storage tanks at the three locations.
The distribution network is divided into four geographic clusters covering Liwa East, Liwa West, Madinat Zayed and Seih Al-Kheir. The works include associated pipelines, pumping stations and storage facilities.
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Gulf conflict cuts Emirates Group profit by 66%6 November 2026
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Dubai’s Emirates Group made a profit before tax of AED4.1bn ($1.1bn) in the first half of its 2026-27 financial year, 66% less than the AED12.2bn it made in the same period last year.
The six months to 30 September were the group’s first full half-year since military activity disrupted commercial air traffic across the Gulf on 28 February. Group revenue fell 12% to AED66.2bn ($18bn), from AED75.4bn a year earlier. Profit after tax fell 66% to AED3.6bn ($1bn).
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) fell 41% to AED12.5bn ($3.4bn).
The results follow a record 2025-26 financial year. The group made a profit before tax of AED24.4bn in that year, on revenue of AED150.5bn.
“It has been a demanding six months, and once again our business model and our people stood up to the test,” said Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, chairman and chief executive of Emirates Airline and Group. “Customer demand held firm and our cargo operations made a strong contribution, keeping revenue and cash levels healthy even as global jet fuel prices doubled against the same period last year.”
Airline performance
Emirates airline’s profit before tax fell 68% to AED3.7bn ($1bn), compared with AED11.4bn a year earlier. Its revenue fell 13% to AED56.9bn ($15.5bn). The airline carried 21.8 million passengers, 22% fewer than a year earlier. Capacity measured in available seat kilometres fell 17%, and the passenger seat factor dropped to 72% from 79.5%.
Cargo partly offset the drop in passenger numbers. Emirates SkyCargo carried 1.2 million tonnes, 1% less than a year earlier, but its revenue rose 52%. The conflict reduced the airfreight capacity available on the market, and disruption to shipping pushed shippers towards air transport.
Before hedging gains, fuel costs rose 60%, even though the airline uplifted 12% less fuel. Gains of AED7.1bn ($1.9bn) from fuel hedging cut the net increase in fuel costs to 13%. Fuel accounted for 34% of operating costs.
On 30 September, Emirates was operating 91% of its pre-disruption network, serving 150 airports in 78 countries and territories. On 31 March, it had been flying 58% of its passenger capacity to 122 destinations in 65 countries.
Fleet investment
The airline received nine Airbus A350s and five Boeing 777 freighters during the period. Its fleet grew to 289 aircraft, from 277 on 31 March. Emirates is continuing its cabin retrofit programme, a planned investment of more than $7bn. It refurbished 12 aircraft in the first half. In May, it broke ground on a $5.1bn engineering and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facility at Al-Maktoum International airport, which is expected to be completed in the mid-2030s.
The group’s cash position was AED54.1bn ($14.7bn) on 30 September, down from a record AED59.6bn on 31 March. The group said it had used its reserves to make pre-delivery payments for aircraft and to service existing debt. It also paid the remaining AED2bn of the AED3.5bn dividend declared for 2025-26 to its owner, the Investment Corporation of Dubai.
Ground services and travel company dnata made a profit before tax of AED410m ($112m), down 51%. Its revenue fell 7% to AED11bn ($3bn), and the group said dnata’s international businesses helped offset weaker traffic in the UAE.
The group’s workforce fell 2% to 128,237 people.
“We enter the second half of our 2026-27 financial year with measured optimism,” said Sheikh Ahmed.
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King Salman airport tenders roads and utilities package6 November 2026

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Saudi Arabia’s King Salman International Airport Development Company (KSIADC) has tendered the Zone C1+C2 roads, bridges and utility networks package for King Salman International airport (KSIA) in Riyadh.
The tender was issued on 26 October, and bids are due by 6 December.
The request for proposals covers the procurement, construction, testing and commissioning of civil infrastructure supporting Terminal 6, alongside the existing Terminals 1-5.
The scope includes upgrades to Airport Road 539, which runs west of Terminals 1-5, and to part of Mohamed Bin Faraj Road 5333, west of Junction 6.
It also includes new roads, ramps, service roads, and signalised at-grade junctions. An additional access road will connect the Terminal 6 site offices to Road 5333.
Structures will include the Junction 6 and Terminal 6 bridges, retaining walls and reinforced-soil structures.
The contractor will also construct the central ground services equipment (GSE) bridge. Before construction begins, the contractor must validate the design, complete any outstanding elements – including mechanically stabilised earth walls, approach slabs, drainage and lighting – and secure the required authority approvals.
Dry utilities will comprise high- and extra-high-voltage containment, a 13.8kV medium-voltage network with package substations, low-voltage distribution and street lighting, and security-surveillance systems.
Wet utilities will include potable water, fire water, irrigation water, treated sewage effluent, district cooling and wastewater networks. Wastewater pipes will range from 200mm u-PVC gravity lines to 1,700mm glass-reinforced plastic mains.
The stormwater network will include channels, culverts, ponds and pipes ranging from 400mm to 1,400mm in diameter. Crossings will be constructed using open-cut excavation, horizontal directional drilling or microtunneling.
Utilities serving the operational terminals will be diverted on a design-and-build basis. Enabling works will include earthworks and the relocation of the security fence and trees. The contractor will also demolish a temporary car park, existing bridges and a sewage pumping station.
Optional works comprise two design-and-build elements that will proceed only at the client’s instruction.
The first is the south GSE bridge. The second is an approximately 1,400-metre, multi-lane access road to the Terminal 6 Transportation Hub, including bridges, underpasses, ramps and tunnels, as well as provisions for future Wadi Loop utilities and structures.
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