UAE is poised to weather the storm
25 April 2025
Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editor
Despite the rising turmoil in global markets due to US-imposed tariffs, the UAE is well positioned to cope thanks to a combination of strong fiscal and macroeconomic fundamentals and government-supported project spending.
Abu Dhabi is set to comfortably achieve a fiscal surplus for the fifth year running in 2025, even with the recent dip in global oil prices, which has still brought prices nowhere near the $50-a-barrel fiscal breakeven point that according to the IMF would tip the UAE into the red. Also working in the government’s favour is the expected increase in the country’s oil production output due to the phasing out of some of its voluntary production cuts this year.
Beyond oil, the UAE’s greater degree of non-oil diversification relative to other oil-exporting markets in the Gulf and wider region provide it with a more stable revenue base, while the country’s financial institutions remain on a strong growth heading – thanks to their burgeoning project finance loan books.
The market confidence is also reflected in the growth of residential property sales in Dubai by 30% in 2024 – with housing being one of the main contributions to the albeit restrained 2% consumer price inflation in the country at large.
Economic strength
The UAE also retains its role as an economic beacon for the Middle East and beyond. Dubai real estate purchases by Chinese and Russian buyers saw double-digit growth in 2024 and could account for more than 30% of sales in 2025.
The UAE economy is being staunchly supported by both public and private spending in the projects sector, which hit $94bn in contract awards for the second year running, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects – far in excess of the $30bn average in the three years before.
The projects boom is being driven by a combination of expansionary government spending on infrastructure and renewed investment in property and real estate by both state-owned and private developers alike. There are about $140bn-worth of projects currently under execution in the energy, infrastructure and utilities sectors, and a similar figure in the building sector alone.
This buoyancy is continuing in 2025, with the $27bn in new project awards to date outstripping the value of project completions by a factor of almost three and setting the market on track for another exceptional year.
Abu Dhabi is meanwhile hedging its geopolitical fortunes by promising to invest $1.4tn into the US over 10 years – a pledge that will both secure access to the US’ dominant technology market and please the transactional US president.
While the UAE was only ever in line for the minimum 10% reciprocal tariff imposed as a blanket measure across the world, it does the country no harm at all to build up additional political capital in Washington ahead of whatever whim next takes hold in the office of the presidency.

MEED’s May 2025 report on the UAE includes:
> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
> BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era
> UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
> DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
> POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
> TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push
> DATABANK: UAE growth prospects head north
Exclusive from Meed
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Bahrain extends deadline for Hawar Island water station25 November 2025
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November 2025: Data drives regional projects25 November 2025
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Bahrain pursues reform amid strain25 November 2025
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Chinese firms expand oil and gas presence25 November 2025
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UK firm wins Saudi airport masterplan update deal25 November 2025
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Bahrain extends deadline for Hawar Island water station25 November 2025
Bahrain’s Electricity & Water Authority (Ewa) has extended the bid submission deadline for the main contract to build a new water distribution station on Hawar Island.
The deadline, initially set for 23 November, has been moved to 7 December.
The $15m project covers the construction of two steel ground storage tanks with a capacity of one million gallons each, pumping stations, motors, pipelines and associated facilities.
The scheme forms a key part of Bahrain’s wider plans to develop Hawar Island, which currently has limited utility infrastructure and relies on water transported from the mainland.
The government is advancing tourism-led investment on the island, including eco-resorts and hospitality developments that require reliable potable water supplies.
The tender is linked to Ewa’s ongoing procurement for a new seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant on Hawar.
The engineering, procurement and construction contract for the SWRO facility, designed to produce one million imperial gallons a day, is currently out to tender, with bids due on 30 November.
According to Ewa, the desalination plant will connect with two related contracts.
One of these covers the construction of the new water distribution station, while the second covers offshore seawater intake and outfall systems.
The main desalination contractor will be required to ensure its design and construction align with these works so that all three components function together as one integrated system.
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November 2025: Data drives regional projects25 November 2025
Click here to download the PDF
Includes: Top 10 global contractors | Brent Spot Price | Construction output
MEED's 2025 EPC contractor ranking
MEED’s December 2025 report on Bahrain includes:
> COMMENT: Manama pursues reform amid strain
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> BANKING: Mergers loom over Bahrain’s banking system
> OIL & GAS: Bahrain remains in pursuit of hydrocarbon resources
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Bahrain pursues reform amid strain25 November 2025
Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editorCautious optimism defines Bahrain’s current economic moment as the country presses ahead with a broad agenda of diversification, reform and targeted investment. Yet the more assertively Manama moves to reshape its future, the more the tension between its ambition and its fiscal constraints becomes evident as the defining feature of its policymaking.
Bahrain’s projects sector, which has now been shrinking for the past seven years, is emblematic of the country’s constricted spending. This year, contract awards have fallen to their lowest value in a decade. This signals a decisive shift to a more disciplined investment strategy aligned with fiscal realities and a more selective approach to forward-looking capital spending.
The diminished projects market is in turn a challenge for the financial sector, which now faces a receding pool of project financing and other contracting loans. This is giving further impetus to the potential consolidation of local lenders in the overbanked market, which is also beset by thinning margins, rising compliance costs and pressure to scale amid financial system modernisation. While it could create short-term pain, consolidation should boost the financial health of legacy lenders and provide stability in a sector increasingly being defined by new digital banking models and innovation.
Yet even as some sectors change, Bahrain’s government remains deeply reliant on hydrocarbons, which continues to drive exploration, including in the technically complex Khaleej Al-Bahrain basin. These activities reflect the practical need to maintain oil revenues in the medium term and, should additional recoverable reserves be discovered, a potent source of optimism.
Manana is meanwhile looking to overhaul the utilities sector by creating a dedicated regulator and new national operator. The reforms should make space for greater private participation, drawing more capital into power and water projects while improving efficiency and reducing state expenditure in an aspirationally positive step towards greater long-term sustainability.
Even as fiscal concerns narrow Manama’s policy options, it continues to secure strategic wins. A new aviation agreement with Air Asia establishes Bahrain as a regional hub for one of Asia’s largest low-cost carriers. This move opens new connectivity corridors and, alongside the renewal of direct Gulf Air routes to the US, reinforces Bahrain’s position as a gateway between regions, promising benefits for tourism, logistics and services.
Overall, Bahrain’s economic trajectory remains delicately balanced – marked by reform-driven progress yet tempered by fiscal constraint. But in threading this needle, Manama shows that cautious optimism can still be a powerful catalyst for change.

MEED’s December 2025 report on Bahrain includes:
> GVT & ECONOMY: Bahrain’s cautious economic evolution
> BANKING: Mergers loom over Bahrain’s banking system
> OIL & GAS: Bahrain remains in pursuit of hydrocarbon resources
> POWER & WATER: Bahrain advances utility reform
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Chinese firms expand oil and gas presence25 November 2025

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Chinese contractors have been present in the oil and gas projects market in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region since the turn of this century, but largely remained on the fringes. In a hydrocarbons market that has traditionally been dominated by European and American contractors, and those from Japan and South Korea, Chinese firms have become a rising force, especially since the start of the decade.Economic competitiveness in bid battles, significant improvement in engineering and technological capabilities and commitment to execution schedules have been primary factors behind the success of Chinese contractors in the regional oil and gas projects market since 2020.
Competitive edge
Traditionally, Chinese engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors have enjoyed a lower cost base than their international competitors. This comes from lower manpower costs, access to cheaper materials and equipment, and financial support from state banks.
In addition, Chinese firms have typically had a different attitude to risk than many other contractors. Instead of seeking to turn a profit on specific projects, Chinese firms have entered markets cautiously and, as their knowledge of the local market grew, built a commanding long-term position.More recently, the edge that Chinese contractors enjoy has come from the technical experience they have gained from delivering large-scale, complex projects in their domestic market. While in the past Chinese contractors were only considered capable of delivering basic construction work, they now have some of the best project references in the world.
Regional leaders
Chinese EPC contractors have strengthened their performance in the Mena oil and gas projects market, particularly since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. Since 2023, the combined value of projects won by Chinese firms has consistently remained well over $13bn, with them winning key contracts on major projects.
The largest EPC scheme under execution by a Chinese contractor in the region is on a project to maintain and increase the oil production potential of the Bul Hanine offshore oil field development in Qatar. China Offshore Oil Engineering Company won contracts worth $4bn for the two main EPC packages of the project in the third quarter of 2025.Also this year, Abu Dhabi’s Taziz awarded the main EPC contract to build a complex of specialty chemicals plants in the Taziz Industrial Chemicals Zone at Ruwais Industrial City to China National Chemical Engineering & Construction Corporation Seven (CC7).
The EPC contract is valued at $1.99bn, with work expected to be completed by Q4 2028. The chemicals cluster, known as Project Salt, will produce 1.9 million tonnes a year of marketable polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and caustic soda.
Chinese contractors have also enjoyed success in Saudi Arabia, with Aramco having awarded several key EPC contracts to Chinese firms since 2023. China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Company, Sepco and Sinopec Petroleum Services are executing EPC works on four out of the 17 packages of the third expansion phase of Aramco’s Master Gas System project.
Sinopec Group has played a significant role in Aramco’s Jafurah unconventional gas development in Saudi Arabia. In a consortium with Spanish contractor Tecnicas Reunidas, in 2024 Sinopec won packages one and two of the Riyas natural gas liquids scheme, part of the second Jafurah unconventional gas expansion phase. The combined value of the two EPC contracts was $3.2bn.
Just weeks after securing these EPC contracts, the consortium also won the contract to deliver the entire scope of work on the scheme’s third expansion phase, valued at $2.24bn.
In Iraq, China Petroleum Engineering (CPE) won a major contract in August to carry out EPC works on a package covering a major seawater transmission pipeline to be built in Basra as part of the larger Common Seawater Supply Project, which is one of four main components of the estimated $10bn Gas Growth Integrated Project masterplan.
Work on the $2.52bn contract will be carried out by CPE’s engineering arm, China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering.
China has built up extensive resources, from skilled personnel to technical know-how. As the domestic market shows signs of slowing, these resources are being deployed internationally, supporting the growing presence of Chinese contractors in the Mena region.
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Ineco appointed for Spain-Morocco tunnel study25 November 2025
Spanish engineering firm Ineco has been commissioned to conduct an exploratory tunnel study to validate the feasibility of the railway connection linking Spain and Morocco.
According to reports in Spanish media, the $1m contract will establish a detailed technical roadmap for the project.
Ineco’s scope of work includes the preliminary design of the exploratory tunnel, revisions to previous studies, and a comprehensive update of the route, geology, geotechnical conditions, security systems, terminals and associated installations.
Ineco will validate the critical geological conditions of the Strait, particularly in the areas where the project’s greatest risks are located.
The study is expected to be completed by August next year.
The latest development comes after German company Herrenknecht completed its study in October. Herrenknecht said it found the project feasible to undertake due to the availability of the technology needed to execute it.
The media reports added that clients will further study the project and make a final decision in 2027 regarding tendering.
Recent developments
MEED reported in August that Ineco had secured an estimated €350,000 ($409,000) contract to carry out a financial feasibility study for the proposed infrastructure.
UK-based Vodafone also won a contract to provide advanced telecommunications support to teams working on the project.
These developments followed the appointment of Herrenknecht in January for a €296,400 ($307,483) contract to conduct a drilling feasibility study.
The Spanish government revived the Morocco-Spain undersea rail link in June last year, after allocating about $2.5m for a renewed design study.
Project background
The project, originally launched in 2003, was put on hold following the 2008 financial crisis. It has undergone several rounds of feasibility studies, but remains in the planning phase after nearly two decades of funding-related delays.
The proposed design includes a double-track railway and a service tunnel extending 38.5 kilometres (km) between Tarifa in Spain and Tangier in Morocco. Of this, 28km will run beneath the Mediterranean Sea at a maximum depth of 475 metres.
Each single-track tunnel will have an inner diameter of 7.9 metres, while the service gallery will be 6 metres in diameter.
The project is being jointly developed by Morocco’s National Society for Strait of Gibraltar Studies and Spain’s Sociedad Espanola de Estudios para la Comunicacion Fija a Traves del Estrecho de Gibraltar.
In 2006, Swiss engineering firm Lombardi Engineering was selected to design the tunnel. Preliminary studies were completed two years later.
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