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UAE is poised to weather the storm

25 April 2025

Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editor

Despite the rising turmoil in global markets due to US-imposed tariffs, the UAE is well positioned to cope thanks to a combination of strong fiscal and macroeconomic fundamentals and government-supported project spending.

Abu Dhabi is set to comfortably achieve a fiscal surplus for the fifth year running in 2025, even with the recent dip in global oil prices, which has still brought prices nowhere near the $50-a-barrel fiscal breakeven point that according to the IMF would tip the UAE into the red. Also working in the government’s favour is the expected increase in the country’s oil production output due to the phasing out of some of its voluntary production cuts this year. 

Beyond oil, the UAE’s greater degree of non-oil diversification relative to other oil-exporting markets in the Gulf and wider region provide it with a more stable revenue base, while the country’s financial institutions remain on a strong growth heading – thanks to their burgeoning project finance loan books.

The market confidence is also reflected in the growth of residential property sales in Dubai by 30% in 2024 – with housing being one of the main contributions to the albeit restrained 2% consumer price inflation in the country at large. 

Economic strength

The UAE also retains its role as an economic beacon for the Middle East and beyond. Dubai real estate purchases by Chinese and Russian buyers saw double-digit growth in 2024 and could account for more than 30% of sales in 2025.

The UAE economy is being staunchly supported by both public and private spending in the projects sector, which hit $94bn in contract awards for the second year running, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects – far in excess of the $30bn average in the three years before.

The projects boom is being driven by a combination of expansionary government spending on infrastructure and renewed investment in property and real estate by both state-owned and private developers alike. There are about $140bn-worth of projects currently under execution in the energy, infrastructure and utilities sectors, and a similar figure in the building sector alone.

This buoyancy is continuing in 2025, with the $27bn in new project awards to date outstripping the value of project completions by a factor of almost three and setting the market on track for another exceptional year.

Abu Dhabi is meanwhile hedging its geopolitical fortunes by promising to invest $1.4tn into the US over 10 years – a pledge that will both secure access to the US’ dominant technology market and please the transactional US president.

While the UAE was only ever in line for the minimum 10% reciprocal tariff imposed as a blanket measure across the world, it does the country no harm at all to build up additional political capital in Washington ahead of whatever whim next takes hold in the office of the presidency.

 

MEED’s May 2025 report on the UAE includes:

> GOVERNMENT & ECONOMY: UAE looks to economic longevity
> BANKING: UAE banks dig in for new era
> UPSTREAM: Adnoc in cruise control with oil and gas targets
> DOWNSTREAM: Abu Dhabi chemicals sector sees relentless growth
> POWER: AI accelerates UAE power generation projects sector
> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction continues to lead region
> TRANSPORT: UAE accelerates its $60bn transport push
> DATABANK: UAE growth prospects head north

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John Bambridge

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