UAE growth defies the global gloom
26 April 2023
Commentary
John Bambridge
Analysis editor
For the second year running, the UAE is headed for a robust economic growth picture against a backdrop of far gloomier global and regional average growth projections. Also for the second year, there is no telling whether the country’s growth will limit itself to the conservative estimates of global financial institutions, or whether, as in 2022, it will break those bonds.
In its April update, the Washington-based IMF raised its calculation of the UAE’s real GDP growth rate for 2022 to 7.4 per cent. This is up from a projection of just 5.1 per cent made in October last year, with just two months left on the clock. In 2023, the growth projection is 3.5 per cent, a little lower than the 4.2 per cent forecast in October, but after the UAE’s forecast-defying performance in 2022, it is anyone’s guess where this year’s growth will end up.
While a surge in oil prices last year was partially responsible for the UAE’s stellar economic performance – just as Opec+ production cuts are tied to the projected dip in growth in 2023 – the UAE is also seeing a period of non-oil sector buoyancy. This year, oil growth is, if anything, weighing on stronger non-oil growth, which is being driven by surging consumer demand in certain sectors, particularly in property and tourism. The construction sector has also re-entered hiring mode amid a returning glut of off-plan real estate projects.
The UAE is meanwhile experiencing a growth spurt in trade and investment – with foreign trade rising by 17 per cent in 2022 – and hopes to continue this trend with an ever-expansive role in global trade. Recent trade deals with India, Indonesia and Israel are all pertinent to these ambitions, and this all-business approach is why it will take more than a few ripples in the diplomatic pond to disturb the country’s relations with these economic allies.
The UAE is also working on building its global leadership role. Abu Dhabi will be pulling out all the stops this year to ensure that the Cop28 UN Climate Change Conference is an international diplomatic triumph.
The appointment of Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan’s eldest son, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed al-Nahyan, as crown prince, should give further voice to the next generation of leadership. As the UAE sets its sights on eye-watering economic targets, reaching in all directions for avenues of future growth, more voices can only assist its intense economic brainstorming.
This month's special report on the UAE includes:
> GOVERNMENT: Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home
> ECONOMY: UAE economy steers clear of global woes
> BANKING: UAE lenders chart a route to growth
> UPSTREAM: Strategic Adnoc projects register notable progress
> DOWNSTREAM: Gas takes centre stage in Adnoc downstream expansion
> POWER: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28
> WATER: UAE begins massive reverse osmosis buildup
> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction needs major project launches
Exclusive from Meed
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Nakheel awards $953m Palm Jebel Ali villas deal27 April 2026
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Iraq’s first LNG terminal to be completed in June27 April 2026
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Kuwait approves Doha desalination plant award27 April 2026
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Firms prepare bids for 250MW Airtrunk data centre27 April 2026
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Dubai-based real estate developer Nakheel, now part of Dubai Holding, has awarded two contracts worth AED3.5bn ($953m) to local firms for the construction of 544 villas at its Palm Jebel Ali project in Dubai.
The first contract was awarded to Ginco General Contracting for the construction of 354 villas across fronds A to D.
The second contract was awarded to United Engineering Construction Company (Unec) for the construction of 190 villas on fronds E and F.
Construction is expected to begin in Q2 this year, with completion scheduled for 2028.
Earlier phases
In October 2024, Nakheel awarded three contracts worth AED5bn ($1.3bn) for the construction of 723 villas on fronds K to P. The contracts went to Ginco, Unec and the local Shapoorji Pallonji.
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Infrastructure works
This was followed by Nakheel awarding infrastructure contracts worth over AED750m ($204m) to local firm Dutco Construction for works on Palm Jebel Ali.
The infrastructure work includes utility connections, excavation, backfilling, and the construction of roads and pavements across fronds A to G. It also covers 11-kilovolt power distribution and telecommunications-related utility works.
Reclamation contract
In August 2024, Nakheel awarded an AED810m ($220m) contract to complete the reclamation works for the project.
The contract was awarded to Belgium’s Jan De Nul. Its scope includes dredging, land reclamation, beach profiling and sand placement to support the construction of villas across all fronds.
Masterplan details
Nakheel released details of the new masterplan for Palm Jebel Ali in June 2023. Twice the size of Palm Jumeirah, Palm Jebel Ali will have 110 kilometres of shoreline and extensive green spaces. The development will feature more than 80 hotels and resorts, along with a range of entertainment and leisure facilities.
It includes seven connected islands that will cater to approximately 35,000 families. The development also emphasises sustainability, with 30% of public facilities expected to be powered by renewable energy.
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Iraq’s first LNG terminal to be completed in June27 April 2026
Iraq’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal is expected to be completed in early June, according to the country’s Ministry of Electricity.
The terminal, which has an estimated investment value of $450m, is being developed at the Port of Khor Al-Zubair and will have a capacity of 750 million standard cubic feet a day (cf/d).
Ministry spokesperson Ahmed Mousa told the Iraqi News Agency that “work is proceeding at an accelerated pace to complete the LNG platform”, noting that “the government has set 1 June as the date for finishing the project”.
In October last year, US-based Excelerate Energy signed a commercial agreement with a subsidiary of Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity to develop the floating LNG terminal.
The contract was signed at the office of Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani during a ceremony attended by senior officials from both countries, including the US deputy secretary of energy James Danly.
The contract included a five-year agreement for regasification services and LNG supply with extension options, featuring a minimum contracted offtake of 250 million cf/d.
Ahmed Mousa said that “under the contract, the company is responsible for completing the facility as well as securing the agreed gas quantities from any source, in line with the specified terms”.
He added: “Work is continuing according to the planned timelines to complete the project on schedule, as part of the Ministry of Electricity’s plans to keep pace with peak summer loads.”
Although Iraq is Opec’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, it is a net natural gas importer because its lack of infrastructure investment has meant that, until 2023, it flared roughly half of the estimated 3.12 billion cf/d of gas produced in association with crude oil.
Iraq’s reliance on flaring associated gas instead of gathering and processing it has prevented the country from fully realising its potential as a gas producer and forced the Iraqi government to rely on costly gas and electricity imports from Iran.
Recently, Iraq’s oil and gas sector has been disrupted by fallout from the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February and the subsequent regional conflict.
Over recent weeks, Iraq’s oil exports have collapsed by about 80% amid problems shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Iraqi LNG import terminal raises questions about energy strategy27 April 2026
Commentary
Wil Crisp
Oil & gas reporterIraq’s first LNG import terminal is set to come online in early June, at a time when global LNG prices are likely to remain close to their highest levels in more than three years.
The disruption to global oil and gas exports in the wake of the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February led to LNG prices soaring, with natural gas prices in Asia and Europe rising to their highest levels since January 2023 during March.
So far, there has been little progress towards a diplomatic or military solution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and most analysts do not forecast significant price declines in the near term.
On 24 April, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the combined effect of short-term supply losses and slower capacity growth could result in a cumulative loss of around 120 billion cubic metres of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030.
While the IEA expects new liquefaction projects in other regions to offset these losses over time, it still believes the crisis will lead to prolonged tight market conditions through 2026 and 2027.
This means that Iraq will likely have to pay elevated prices for imported LNG for some time to come – if it can receive shipments at all.
The port of Khor Al-Zubair is located in the Arabian Gulf, and LNG shipments from the US or Australia would need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz before reaching the terminal.
This will only be possible if a solution is found to the ongoing blockade of the shipping route.
Investment debate
Iraq’s project to develop a floating LNG terminal is estimated to cost $450m, and many in Iraq may question whether this was the best use of these funds.
While it may have been difficult for Iraqi policymakers to foresee the attack by the US and Israel on Iran and its impact on LNG markets, Iraq had several strong options to enhance domestic energy security rather than turning to LNG imports.
The most obvious of these was investing in infrastructure to enable it to utilise its domestic gas reserves.
According to the World Bank’s 2025 Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report, in 2024, Iraq burned off more unused gas than any other country, except Russia and Iran, which ranked first and second, respectively.
That year, an estimated total of more than 18 billion cubic metres of natural gas was flared in Iraq due to a lack of infrastructure to properly capture and process it.
It is highly likely that projects to gather and process this gas would have been more reliable and cost-effective than investing in a new floating LNG terminal, which increases the country’s exposure to global LNG price fluctuations and shipping disruptions.
Other options could have included developing domestic gas fields or investing in solar and battery storage projects, which have become increasingly affordable in recent years.
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Power shortfall
As things stand, Iraq is likely to face severe electricity shortages this summer.
On 21 April, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said it plans to produce 30,000MW this summer, well short of the predicted peak demand of around 55,000MW.
Ahmed Musa, a spokesperson for the Electricity Ministry, told the state-run Iraqi News Agency that the shortfall will result in planned outages across the country.
He also said that even meeting the 30,000MW target is contingent on sufficient gas supplies.
If Iraq experiences the same level of power outages as last year – or worse – many are likely to view the $450m spent on an LNG import terminal as a waste of money and an expensive symbol of poor planning.
Power cuts this summer could stoke unrest at a time that is already politically precarious due to the ongoing regional conflict.
In recent years, electricity shortages have repeatedly fuelled protests in Iraq during the summer months, particularly in Basra, where blackouts and poor public services have driven people to take to the streets.
If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon, Iraq’s economic crisis will deepen, and electricity shortages are likely to further undermine the country’s stability.
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Kuwait approves Doha desalination plant award27 April 2026
Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders has approved the recommendation of the Ministry of Electricity & Water to award a KD114.28m ($371.5m) contract to supply, install, operate and maintain the second phase of the Doha seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant.
A joint venture of Kuwait-based Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco) and India’s VA Tech Wabag has been selected for the project, with the award understood to be pending final approval from the Audit Bureau.
The project will deliver a production capacity of about 60 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD) and will include the desalination plant with full reverse osmosis trains, pre- and post-treatment systems, recarbonation equipment, booster pumps, and safety and filtration systems.
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MEED previously reported that the Heisco/Wabag joint venture submitted the lowest bid. Bidders and prices included:
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Firms prepare bids for 250MW Airtrunk data centre27 April 2026

Contractors are preparing to submit commercial offers by 4 May for a contract to build a 250MW data centre in Riyadh.
The project is being co-developed by Australian firm AirTrunk in collaboration with Saudi Arabia’s artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company Humain, which is owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF).
The bidders include:
- El-Seif Engineering Contracting / Larsen & Toubro (local/India)
- FCC / Alfanar Projects (Spain/local)
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- Nesma & Partners (local
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In October last year, AirTrunk and Humain announced a $3bn partnership to build data centres in Saudi Arabia, marking AirTrunk’s first move into the region.
The firms said they would, along with AirTrunk investor Blackstone, “develop a long-term strategic partnership focused on financing, developing and operating next-generation data centres and AI infrastructure across the kingdom”.
This was followed by Humain signing a $1.2bn financing agreement with the state-backed National Infrastructure Fund to support the expansion of AI and digital infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia. The agreement was signed in January on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Humain said the deal will support its plan to develop up to 250MW of hyperscale AI data centre capacity in the kingdom.
According to a joint statement, the data centres will use graphics processing units for AI training and inference, serving Humain’s customers locally, regionally and globally.
The National Infrastructure Fund and Humain will also explore launching an AI data centre investment platform, with the two organisations acting as anchor investors to enable local and international institutional investors to back the scale-up of Humain’s AI programme.
The National Infrastructure Fund is Saudi Arabia’s lead development financing partner for infrastructure and operates under the supervision of the National Development Fund.
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