UAE economy steers clear of global woes

24 April 2023

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The UAE economy is expected to maintain a course of robust economic growth in 2023, avoiding the effects of the creeping global economic slowdown.

The Washington-based IMF projects a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the country in 2023 – a rate of expansion well clear of the 2.8 per cent global average amid what has become a worldwide slowdown. The forecast is also ahead of the projected 3.1 per cent growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa.

Though a step down from the 7.4 per cent growth in 2022, and a modest downgrade of 0.7 per cent from the projection in October of a growth rate of 4.2 per cent this year, the UAE’s economic activity remains firmly buoyant. Its growth is forecast to rise again to 3.9 per cent in 2024.

The minor slowdown in the UAE’s economic growth is primarily due to Opec+ cutting oil production quotas, which is reversing some of the past year’s increases in oil production across the region. However, despite the cuts and the weakening of oil prices, the UAE’s oil sector revenues are expected to remain healthy, maintaining a government budget surplus of approximately 3.7 per cent of GDP this year.

Inflationary pressures have also eased since the peak of last year. Disinflation is expected to continue in the coming months, reaching 2.1 per cent this year, down from 4.8 per cent in 2022.

In light of such considerations, the Central Bank of the UAE has also put out a more optimistic projection of a sustained GDP growth rate of 3.9 per cent in 2023. 

More positive still is Issam Abu Suleiman, regional director for the GCC at the World Bank, who has forecast that the UAE economy will continue to grow by 4.1 per cent despite the challenging global economic conditions.

More limited projections also exist, including a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and Oxford Economics that estimates that the growth will slow to 3.2 per cent in 2023, as weaker oil growth weighs on the more buoyant 3.9 per cent growth in the non-oil sector.

Positive sentiment

For businesses on the ground, the projection of close to 4 per cent non-oil growth remains cause for optimism. 

This has been reflected in the S&P UAE Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which rose yet higher from 54.3 in February to 55.9 in March (with a value over 50 indicating growth).

S&P’s report noted a pick-up in new order growth to a five-month high, as well as a rise in capacity pressures that has seen the fastest increase in employment since July 2016. The construction sector was particularly active in hiring amid a slew of new project launches led by off-plan real estate schemes.

The UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas

The UAE’s rebounding real estate market is more generally a key driver of the country’s sustained non-oil growth. House prices are on the rise in Abu Dhabi and property sales in Dubai have hit decade highs in recent months. 

Tourism is also recovering, with Dubai regaining its spot as one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs. International visitors are forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2023.

Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index ranked the UAE second in the world in terms of consumer perceptions of the strength of the economy, with 63 per cent of respondents believing it to have a strong economy. Of those polled, 81 per cent also reported being comfortable with investing in the future and 86 per cent expecting the local economy to be stronger in the next six months.

Ratings agency Moody’s has also reaffirmed the UAE’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing exceptionally low credit risk with its well-balanced budget targets and limited federal spending requirements. 

The introduction of corporate income tax, effective 1 June 2023, will result in further government revenue growth starting from 2025.

Moody’s also pointed to the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification. The country’s progress to date in this area remains well ahead of its GCC peers in terms of the expansion of its non-hydrocarbons revenue, private sector development and overall international attractiveness to foreign businesses and talent.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, the UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas. To achieve this, it needs an average of 7 per cent GDP growth a year, which it hopes to achieve by forging trade agreements and investing in global growth sectors such as green hydrogen.

The UAE’s foreign trade rose by 17 per cent year-on-year to reach AED2.2tn ($599.1bn) in 2022. In the decades ahead, the country aims to attract AED550bn in foreign direct investment by 2031 and AED1tn by 2051.

Abdullah bin Touq al-Marri, the UAE’s minister of economy, has noted that the UAE’s active business environment, which is supported by both national and foreign private sectors and an attractive labour market for international talent, has contributed to the growth of the economy.

By 2030, the government aims to increase the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to 1 million and raise the contribution of SMEs to the country’s non-oil GDP to 63.5 per cent.

In January this year, Dubai also launched its D33 economic agenda, which aims to grow the emirate’s economy to AED32tn by 2033 through a combination of transformative projects and a doubling of foreign trade to AED25.6tn by expanding trade links with Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.


This month's special report on the UAE includes: 

> GOVERNMENT: Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> ECONOMY: UAE economy steers clear of global woes

> BANKING: UAE lenders chart a route to growth

> UPSTREAM: Strategic Adnoc projects register notable progress

> DOWNSTREAM: Gas takes centre stage in Adnoc downstream expansion

> POWER: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

> WATER: UAE begins massive reverse osmosis buildup

> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction needs major project launches

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John Bambridge
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    State utility Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) recently announced it had received four bids for the development of the 3.3GW Al-Nouf independent power producer (IPP) project in Abu Dhabi.

    The facility is scheduled to be one of at least four major IPP projects to reach contract award this year as the IPP procurement model becomes increasingly popular in the UAE for large-scale power generation projects.

    The four IPP projects include the planned 2.5GW Taweelah C combined-cycle gas turbine plant, the 1.5GW Al-Zarraf solar photovoltaic (PV) plant and the 1.5GW Madinat Zayed open-cycle gas turbine plant.

    As of the beginning of April, these accounted for $9.3bn, or 92%, of total power projects under bid evaluation. To put that into context, the UAE’s power market recorded its highest annual total for contract awards on record in 2025, with $11.8bn in confirmed awards.

    Three of these were IPP projects, making up $8.1bn, or 69%, of total awards. In 2024, that number was lower again, with just one IPP project accounting for 26% of total power awards.

    The last time contract awards surpassed $5bn was in 2018, when the Hamriyah combined-cycle plant accounted for 21%.

    IPP awards

    Among recent awards, a consortium of France’s Engie and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) signed a contract in November to develop the 1.5GW Khazna solar PV IPP. 

    A month previously, Etihad Water & Electricity (EtihadWE) and South Korea’s Kepco won the award to develop a 400MW battery energy storage system (bess) project following the same IPP model.

    That same month, Abu Dhabi’s landmark $6bn solar plant and 19GWh bess project entered construction, with Larsen & Toubro (India) and Power China working as contractors.

    This project can be considered somewhat of an outlier, inflating the total value of awards in 2025. Otherwise, power contract awards remained broadly in line with the $5.7bn-worth of contract awards the year before.

    Project pipeline

    Looking further into the pipeline, the trend looks set to continue, with two IPP projects currently under main contract bidding, representing almost all of the $3.7bn-worth of projects at this stage.

    The first, and by far, the largest concerns the seventh phase of Dubai Electricity & Water Authority’s (Dewa) Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park, which is estimated to cost $3.4bn.

    Phase seven will add 2,000MW from PV solar panels and include a 1,400MW bess with a six-hour capacity.

    The other relates to the Al-Sila wind IPP, a greenfield renewable energy project with a generation capacity of up to 140MW. When fully operational, it will more than double the existing wind generation capacity in the UAE.

    Five of the six IPP projects in the pipeline are being procured by Abu Dhabi’s Ewec, which also continues to advance its solar PV programme as part of plans to reach 10GW of capacity by 2030.

    The offtaker told MEED that, following the groundbreaking of the Abu Dhabi bess project, also known as PV5, it has been seeking government approvals to release a request for proposals for PV6 and PV7. If all goes according to plan, the expression of interest process should be launched soon.

    Transmission

    Beyond generation, there remains a steady flow of transmission infrastructure investment, led by Taqa Transmission, which awarded $830m across 11 grid projects last year.

    The largest of these involves a $240m contract to build three 400kV substations in Abu Dhabi. Larsen & Toubro, Germany’s Siemens Energy and Japan’s Toshiba are working as the main contractor.

    Total power transmission contracts reached $2.8bn in 2025, a slight increase from $2.5bn the year before.

    Transmission and distribution upgrades have become central to maintaining grid stability and integrating intermittent renewables. Ewec and Taqa are expanding 400kV and 132kV networks across Abu Dhabi and the Northern Emirates, while Dewa continues to reinforce its cable and substation systems in Dubai. These works are vital precursors to the next phase of large-scale solar and battery storage integration.

    Waste-to-energy

    Waste-to-energy (WTE) is becoming an increasingly important part of the UAE’s infrastructure pipeline as the country seeks to reduce landfill dependence and diversify its power mix through alternative generation sources.

    In Ajman, Ajman Sewerage Private Company is progressing the fourth-phase expansion of its sewerage system, which includes the flagship sludge-to-energy (S2E) facility. Belgium’s Besix has been appointed as the engineering, procurement and construction contractor.

    In Sharjah, Emirates Waste to Energy Company, a joint venture of Beeah Group and Tadweer Group, is planning the second phase of its WTE treatment plant. The estimated $200m expansion is expected to almost double the facility’s annual output to 60MW, while increasing processing capacity to 600,000 tonnes of hard-to-recycle waste a year.

    It is understood that a consortium led by Samsung E&A and China Everbright Environment Group has submitted the lowest bid, with a contract award expected in the coming months.

    Meanwhile, Dubai Municipality issued a tender in February for consultancy services related to the second phase of the Warsan WTE Plant. The scheme is estimated to cost $500m and follows the emirate’s first major WTE public-private partnership project, which entered full commercial operations in 2024.

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  • UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain

    6 April 2026

     

    Rail has shifted from a long-term diversification play to an immediate strategic imperative for the UAE. The regional conflict and its ripple effects on risk premiums, insurance costs and schedule reliability have highlighted the vulnerability of traditional logistics routes and maritime chokepoints.

    Against this backdrop, the country’s infrastructure pipeline – particularly rail – now serves as both an economic enabler and a resilience strategy. On the freight side, Abu Dhabi’s Hafeet Rail and the expanding Etihad Rail network are laying the groundwork for higher-capacity, lower-volatility overland transport, reducing reliance on sea-based supply chains.

    Inland connectivity is already being prioritised to counter supply chain disruption, including the recent opening of a green corridor with Oman to accelerate cross-border flows.

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    Network integration

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    Together, freight and passenger rail – combined with planned investments in airports and road network upgrades – are becoming the backbone of the UAE’s next infrastructure cycle. This integrated system not only expands capacity but also strengthens economic resilience, helping to keep trade and urban movement functioning during periods of disruption.

    Pipeline outlook

    According to data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects, the UAE has an infrastructure pipeline valued at about $63bn, covering airports, railways and road schemes.

    In November last year, the UAE’s Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, Suhail Al-Mazrouei, announced a AED170bn ($46bn) package of national transport and road projects to be delivered by 2030.

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    Key road projects include adding six lanes (three in each direction) to Etihad Road, increasing capacity by 60% to a total of 12 lanes. Emirates Road will be expanded to 10 lanes along its full length, boosting capacity by 65% and reducing travel time by 45%. Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Road will also be widened to 10 lanes, increasing capacity by 45%.

    The plan also includes a study for a fourth federal highway, extending 120 kilometres with 12 lanes and a capacity of up to 360,000 trips a day.

    Work has already begun on the AED750m Emirates Road upgrade, which is expected to be completed within two years.

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    Trains on the UAE’s HSR network are designed for speeds of up to 350km/h, with an operating speed of 320km/h. The programme will be delivered in four phases, gradually extending connectivity across the country.

    Procurement is also progressing for the Abu Dhabi Tram Line 4 project. The first phase, announced by Abu Dhabi Transport Company in October last year, will connect Zayed International airport with nearby areas including Yas Island, Al-Raha Beach and Khalifa City. Prequalification has been completed, and the tender is expected to be issued soon.

    In Dubai, the most significant infrastructure project is the first-phase expansion of Al Maktoum International airport. Dubai Aviation Engineering Projects received contractor proposals on 31 March for three superstructure packages. A contractor was selected last year for the substructure works.

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    Another major project is the Dubai Metro Gold Line. In October last year, Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority appointed US-based engineering firm Aecom to provide consultancy services for the scheme.

    War casts shadow over UAE construction boom

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  • War casts shadow over UAE construction boom

    6 April 2026

     

    The UAE’s construction sector entered the year in a position of strength. According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, contract awards reached $59bn in 2025, a record that surpassed the $53bn awarded in 2024.

    With market conditions expected to remain buoyant, 2026 was forecast to be another strong year. However, the Iran conflict that began on 28 February is set to change that narrative.

    In the short term, the construction sector proved resilient during the first weeks of the conflict. With the exception of a few sites in high-risk zones, construction activity across the UAE has largely continued uninterrupted.

    Cost pressures

    Despite continued activity on the ground, the industry is bracing for cost escalation. Brent crude prices have risen well above the $100-a-barrel mark. For the construction sector, the impact was felt most acutely on 1 April, when the UAE adjusted its domestic fuel prices.

    Diesel surged to AED4.69 a litre, up sharply from AED2.72 in March. This nearly 72% increase has immediate and far-reaching implications for project overheads, affecting heavy machinery operations, site power generation, and the transport of bulk materials such as sand, steel and cement.

    For projects signed under fixed-price contracts during the lower-inflation environment of 2024 and 2025, these increases pose a significant threat to contractor margins and potentially to overall project viability.

    Supply disruption

    These inflationary pressures are compounded by logistical challenges stemming from instability in the Strait of Hormuz. As a critical artery for regional imports, any disruption has ripple effects across the construction supply chain – particularly for long-lead items such as specialised façade systems, high-end finishing materials and key MEP components.

    While the UAE has leveraged overland routes to mitigate some of these bottlenecks, the shift is unlikely to be cost-neutral or time-neutral.

    Insurance gaps

    Legal and contractual frameworks governing projects are now under increased scrutiny. A key concern is the limitation of standard insurance policies. Many contractor all-risk and logistics policies exclude coverage for losses arising from active conflict, creating a significant gap for goods in transit.

    As freight is rerouted to alternative ports and transported over longer distances by road, insurers are becoming increasingly reluctant to provide cover for these extended journeys.

    Contractors are being advised to adopt a more disciplined approach. To recover costs linked to these disruptions, the industry is being urged to move away from the broad claims that have historically characterised regional disputes.

    Employers are unlikely to accept claims that do not clearly distinguish conflict-related impacts from pre-existing project delays. Instead, contractors must precisely document separate heads of claim, including supply chain cost increases, on-site stoppages, and new health and safety requirements.

    Market outlook

    In the longer term, the sector is in a wait-and-see phase. The market’s trajectory will depend heavily on the government’s ability to manage public finances following a period of significant, unforeseen expenditure.

    The cost of defence, combined with reduced tourism revenue, lower oil exports and weaker consumer spending, has created a complex and as yet undetermined fiscal challenge.

    Although construction is likely to be used as a tool for economic stimulus once the conflict subsides, the availability of capital for major new projects remains unknown. Government spending priorities will likely shift towards resilience, including accelerated infrastructure development on the UAE’s east coast.

    Fujairah and the Sharjah enclave of Khor Fakkan – both located outside the Strait of Hormuz – are expected to play an increasingly central role in strategic infrastructure planning. Over the next decade, investment may focus on strengthening the logistics and industrial capacity of these ports to better shield the federation from future geopolitical shocks.

    For the private real estate sector, the outlook depends on whether the attacks that began on 28 February have permanently altered the UAE’s reputation as a secure, low-tax safe haven. While the conflict is testing investor confidence, the country’s operational resilience may still compare favourably with challenges in other global markets.

    If the risks are viewed as manageable, investment could rebound quickly. However, prolonged uncertainty would result in a slower recovery. By early April, warning signs had already emerged, with some developers facing cashflow pressures due to slowing sales.

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  • Firms win $932m Saudi canine training PPP project

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    A consortium led by Bahrain-headquartered firm Lamar Holding has been selected for an estimated SR3.5bn ($932m) contract to develop canine training facilities in Jeddah and Dammam, known as the K9 Training Centre and Point of Entry (PoE) project.

    The other members of the consortium are Saudi Arabia’s Safari Holding and US-based firm MSA.

    US-based firm Synergy Consulting is the project’s financial advisor.

    The scheme is being developed through a public-private partnership (PPP) model by Saudi Arabia’s Zakat, Tax & Customs Authority (Zatca), in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP).

    The firms submitted the bids for the project on 14 July last year, as MEED reported.

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    The scheme involves the development and operation of the National K9 Training Centre, including new facilities at King Abdullah Port in King Abdullah Economic City, Rabigh governorate, and at King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam.

    The scheme also includes the expansion of existing facilities at Jeddah Islamic Port and facilities maintenance services for all three sites.

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    The services will be provided at 34 PoEs in the kingdom, 26 of which are currently operational. Eight new facilities are expected to be completed by 2030.

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  • Acwa solar plants face power output restrictions

    6 April 2026

    Acwa has announced that two of its solar independent power producer (IPP) plants in Saudi Arabia have been subject to temporary power dispatch limitations following instructions from the grid operator.

    According to the developer, the grid operator cited alleged reactive power fluctuations affecting grid stability. Acwa said both project companies deny the allegations.

    The affected assets are the 1,425MW Al-Kahfah solar photovoltaic (PV) IPP and the 2,000MW Ar Rass 2 solar PV IPP.

    Saudi Arabia’s Water & Electricity Holding Company (Badeel) and Acwa, formerly Acwa Power, signed power-purchase agreements with Saudi Power Procurement Company (SPPC) for the development and operation of the plants in 2023.

    Ishaa Energy Renewable Company and Nawwar Renewable Energy Company are the project companies specially set up to manage the Al-Kahfah and Ar Rass 2 projects, respectively. Both were set up as joint ventures between Acwa and Badeel.

    Al-Kahfah received its commercial operation certificate in November 2025. The plant has been under dispatch limitation since 12 December 2025, with partial dispatch permitted since 11 February 2026.

    The accumulated estimated revenue challenged by the principal buyer at Al-Kahfah up to the end of March is approximately SR95m ($25.3m).

    Ar Rass 2 received its initial commercial operation certificate in September 2025. It has been under dispatch limitation since 16 January 2026, with partial dispatch permitted since 8 March 2026.

    The accumulated estimated revenue challenged by the principal buyer at Ar Rass 2 up to the end of March is approximately SR73m ($19.7m).

    Acwa said both project companies have challenged the matter and are conducting detailed technical assessments, including independent third-party analysis. The company said it is also coordinating with the relevant authorities to enable the full restoration of plant operations.

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