meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy steers clear of global woes

24 April 2023

Related reads on the UAE:

> Two billion riders use Dubai Metro

> Surge in tourists boosts Dubai hospitality

> Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> UAE calls for reform of international financial institutions

> UAE president appoints son as Abu Dhabi crown prince

> UAE and Israel sign customs cooperation deal

> UAE moves ahead with digital currency

 

The UAE economy is expected to maintain a course of robust economic growth in 2023, avoiding the effects of the creeping global economic slowdown.

The Washington-based IMF projects a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the country in 2023 – a rate of expansion well clear of the 2.8 per cent global average amid what has become a worldwide slowdown. The forecast is also ahead of the projected 3.1 per cent growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa.

Though a step down from the 7.4 per cent growth in 2022, and a modest downgrade of 0.7 per cent from the projection in October of a growth rate of 4.2 per cent this year, the UAE’s economic activity remains firmly buoyant. Its growth is forecast to rise again to 3.9 per cent in 2024.

The minor slowdown in the UAE’s economic growth is primarily due to Opec+ cutting oil production quotas, which is reversing some of the past year’s increases in oil production across the region. However, despite the cuts and the weakening of oil prices, the UAE’s oil sector revenues are expected to remain healthy, maintaining a government budget surplus of approximately 3.7 per cent of GDP this year.

Inflationary pressures have also eased since the peak of last year. Disinflation is expected to continue in the coming months, reaching 2.1 per cent this year, down from 4.8 per cent in 2022.

In light of such considerations, the Central Bank of the UAE has also put out a more optimistic projection of a sustained GDP growth rate of 3.9 per cent in 2023. 

More positive still is Issam Abu Suleiman, regional director for the GCC at the World Bank, who has forecast that the UAE economy will continue to grow by 4.1 per cent despite the challenging global economic conditions.

More limited projections also exist, including a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and Oxford Economics that estimates that the growth will slow to 3.2 per cent in 2023, as weaker oil growth weighs on the more buoyant 3.9 per cent growth in the non-oil sector.

Positive sentiment

For businesses on the ground, the projection of close to 4 per cent non-oil growth remains cause for optimism. 

This has been reflected in the S&P UAE Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which rose yet higher from 54.3 in February to 55.9 in March (with a value over 50 indicating growth).

S&P’s report noted a pick-up in new order growth to a five-month high, as well as a rise in capacity pressures that has seen the fastest increase in employment since July 2016. The construction sector was particularly active in hiring amid a slew of new project launches led by off-plan real estate schemes.

The UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas

The UAE’s rebounding real estate market is more generally a key driver of the country’s sustained non-oil growth. House prices are on the rise in Abu Dhabi and property sales in Dubai have hit decade highs in recent months. 

Tourism is also recovering, with Dubai regaining its spot as one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs. International visitors are forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2023.

Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index ranked the UAE second in the world in terms of consumer perceptions of the strength of the economy, with 63 per cent of respondents believing it to have a strong economy. Of those polled, 81 per cent also reported being comfortable with investing in the future and 86 per cent expecting the local economy to be stronger in the next six months.

Ratings agency Moody’s has also reaffirmed the UAE’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing exceptionally low credit risk with its well-balanced budget targets and limited federal spending requirements. 

The introduction of corporate income tax, effective 1 June 2023, will result in further government revenue growth starting from 2025.

Moody’s also pointed to the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification. The country’s progress to date in this area remains well ahead of its GCC peers in terms of the expansion of its non-hydrocarbons revenue, private sector development and overall international attractiveness to foreign businesses and talent.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, the UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas. To achieve this, it needs an average of 7 per cent GDP growth a year, which it hopes to achieve by forging trade agreements and investing in global growth sectors such as green hydrogen.

The UAE’s foreign trade rose by 17 per cent year-on-year to reach AED2.2tn ($599.1bn) in 2022. In the decades ahead, the country aims to attract AED550bn in foreign direct investment by 2031 and AED1tn by 2051.

Abdullah bin Touq al-Marri, the UAE’s minister of economy, has noted that the UAE’s active business environment, which is supported by both national and foreign private sectors and an attractive labour market for international talent, has contributed to the growth of the economy.

By 2030, the government aims to increase the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to 1 million and raise the contribution of SMEs to the country’s non-oil GDP to 63.5 per cent.

In January this year, Dubai also launched its D33 economic agenda, which aims to grow the emirate’s economy to AED32tn by 2033 through a combination of transformative projects and a doubling of foreign trade to AED25.6tn by expanding trade links with Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

This month's special report on the UAE includes: 

> GOVERNMENT: Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> ECONOMY: UAE economy steers clear of global woes

> BANKING: UAE lenders chart a route to growth

> UPSTREAM: Strategic Adnoc projects register notable progress

> DOWNSTREAM: Gas takes centre stage in Adnoc downstream expansion

> POWER: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

> WATER: UAE begins massive reverse osmosis buildup

> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction needs major project launches

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10761289/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Brent hits $112 a barrel following Saudi oil field attack

    22 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Oil prices climbed more than 3% on 22 October after a drone targeting Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field development killed two people and injured two others a day earlier, adding to concerns over energy supplies as attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure intensified.

    Global benchmark Brent crude hit $112.30 in early trading on 22 October, but later pared gains and was trading at $111.52 a barrel as of 11am GST.

    Three residents and a Saudi citizen were killed in two separate incidents in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province on 21 October, authorities said, as attacks on the kingdom accelerated following an escalation of hostilities with the Iran-backed Houthi group in neighbouring Yemen.

    Overnight, the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis in Yemen announced that it had intercepted and destroyed four drones in the Eastern Province.

    Saudi air defences intercepted a drone attempting to target a processing facility at Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field development on the morning of 21 October, the Saudi Ministry of Energy said.

    The official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) carried a statement quoting an energy ministry official as saying the attempted attack resulted in the deaths of two residents – a Filipino and a Nepali – and injuries to two others – an Indian and a Pakistani – after debris fell due to the interception.

    Following the interception, a fire broke out in a vehicle belonging to a contractor at the Shaybah oil field, outside the facility’s perimeter, with no impact on operations.

    Dammam airport attack

    Separately, a Houthi attack on King Fahd International airport in Dammam on the evening of 21 October killed an Indian resident and a Saudi citizen.

    Eight people were also injured in the attack, including a Saudi national, a Nepali, and two nationals each from India, Yemen and Bangladesh. Injuries ranged from minor to critical, the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca) said the next day.

    “The attack also caused property damage, the extent of which is currently being assessed. Further updates will be provided,” Gaca said, adding that operations had since resumed at Dammam airport.

    Saudi Arabia has come under sustained attack from the Iran-aligned Houthi rebel group in October, including strikes on Riyadh’s international airport in what authorities described as the kingdom’s deadliest incidents in years, as the war with the group escalates.

    The Houthi militias also struck an administrative building at Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran, in the Eastern Province, on 13 October, resulting in a limited fire.

    The Houthi rebels opened a new front in the regional war between Iran and the US in mid-July, when they breached a four-year truce with Saudi Arabia in Yemen’s civil war, which began in 2014, and started attacking Saudi vessels and Aramco energy assets along the Red Sea, including repeated strikes on the Jizan refinery.

    The 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline operated by Aramco was also hit by Houthi missiles in September, and once directly by Iran in April.

    The East-West pipeline transports crude from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province oil fields to the Red Sea port city of Yanbu on the kingdom’s west coast. It has a pumping capacity of 7 million barrels a day.

    Saudi Arabia relies heavily on the East-West pipeline to bypass the volatile Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint and ship crude from its Red Sea coast. Riyadh has increasingly used the line to route exports away from Hormuz since the US-Iran conflict began on 28 February – a tactical advantage most of its Gulf neighbours lack.

    Aramco resumed crude exports via the pipeline at the start of October.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20841984/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Riyadh awards $301m Sheikh Jaber Road contract

    22 October 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has awarded an estimated SR1.13bn ($301m) contract to local firm Alomaier Trading & Contracting Company to upgrade a section of Sheikh Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah Road in the capital.

    The project covers the construction of an urban road about 3 kilometres (km) long, with a right-of-way width of about 120 metres.

    The scope of work includes the delivery of three interchanges featuring post-tensioned, voided-slab concrete bridges; a cut-and-cover tunnel; and three box culverts designated IC02, IC03 and IC04.

    The contract also encompasses pumping and lifting stations, stormwater drainage and irrigation networks, earthworks, asphalt paving, roadway lighting, power distribution systems, mechanically stabilised earth retaining walls and landscaping works.

    The award forms part of RCRC’s wider programme to upgrade Riyadh’s arterial road network, decongest critical bottlenecks and expand transportation capacity in the city ahead of Expo 2030 and the 2034 Fifa World Cup.

    The contract award follows RCRC’s appointment in May of a joint venture of Riyadh-based Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company and Turkiye’s IC Ictas for an estimated SR5bn ($1.3bn) contract to construct another section of Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road.

    That project covers 12km from Khurais Road to Al-Thumama Road and is a component of Riyadh’s Second Eastern Ring Road scheme.

    Alomaier Trading & Contracting Company has secured several contracts in recent months.

    In August, Saudi Arabian Railways awarded the contractor an estimated SR4bn-plus ($1.1bn) contract to add a second track to the first section of the existing phosphate railway in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.

    The railway package covers about 100km between AZ1/Nariyah Yard and Ras Al-Khair. Works include track doubling, alignment modifications, utility bridges, culvert widening, hydrological structures, conversion of the AZ1 siding into a mainline track, and enabling works for signalling and telecommunications systems.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20833960/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Dewa International signs energy and infrastructure MoUs

    22 October 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority’s (Dewa) new development arm, Dewa International, has signed four memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with international partners to explore investment and project development opportunities in the energy, water and infrastructure sectors.

    The agreements, signed during Dubai’s Water, Energy, Technology and Environment Exhibition (Wetex 2026), follow the launch of the wholly owned subsidiary in June, as reported by MEED.

    At the time, the utility said the arm would be used to export Dubai’s energy and water infrastructure model, with a focus on developing conventional and clean energy projects for global markets.

    At Wetex, Dewa International signed an MoU with France’s EDF Power Solutions to explore potential joint participation in solar, wind, battery energy storage and pumped-storage hydropower projects.

    A separate agreement with China Energy International Group explores the company’s potential role as an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) partner for major energy, water and infrastructure projects. The MoU also covers cooperation in project development and EPC services.

    A further agreement with UK-based Capital Dynamics focuses on potential joint investments in operational clean energy assets in Europe. The parties will also explore establishing an investment vehicle for future clean energy infrastructure investments.

    Dewa International also signed a fourth agreement with Mumbai-Headquartered Tata Consultancy Services, exploring the company’s potential role as a technical consultancy partner. The scope covers technology strategy, information technology and operational technology integration, and asset performance management solutions.

    Dewa currently has almost $7bn-worth of power and water projects under execution across the UAE, according to regional projects tracker MEED Projects.

    Its flagship Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum Solar Park is the largest single-site solar park in the world. The utility is currently advancing the project’s seventh phase, with Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) recently submitting the lowest bid for the project, as exclusively reported by MEED.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20828111/main0128.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies to develop Lebanon solar plant

    22 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    State-owned QatarEnergy and France’s TotalEnergies have agreed to jointly develop a solar power plant in Lebanon.

    The agreement was announced on 16 October during the Qatari prime minister’s official visit to Beirut, where he held a joint press conference with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

    According to a statement published by the Lebanese Prime Minister's Office, the plant will be an initial project under a broader framework for energy cooperation between Qatar and Lebanon. Its capacity, location, investment value and implementation schedule have yet to be disclosed.

    Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Bin Jassim Al-Thani said: “The aim is to develop a major investment project that benefits the Lebanese economy, as well as the Qatari companies and entities participating in it.”

    Separately, Salam said the Lebanese and Qatari governments were “close to reaching an agreement” to rehabilitate, develop and modernise Lebanon’s electricity-generation infrastructure.

    The proposed project would cover the country’s various electricity-generation sources and associated infrastructure, aiming to improve the reliability of electricity supplies and reduce costs.

    The project would use a build, operate and transfer model, under which Qatari entities would finance, implement and operate the facilities without upfront investment costs for the Lebanese treasury, Salam said.

    Salam also said the proposal was being prepared with support from the International Finance Corporation, and that he hoped to present it to the Lebanese government soon.

    The wider initiative is intended to address Lebanon’s longstanding electricity-generation shortfall and overcome financing constraints that have delayed infrastructure projects in the sector.

    As MEED previously reported, the Lebanese government continues to advance broader reforms to the country’s electricity sector.

    In August, Lebanon’s Electricity Regulatory Authority invited private sector companies to submit expressions of interest (EoIs) for several upcoming power-generation projects.

    The EoIs cover up to five grid-connected solar photovoltaic projects with a combined installed capacity of 350 megawatts-peak. The projects are also expected to include battery energy storage systems with a combined capacity of 1,000 megawatt-hours. 

    The regulator is also seeking proposals for distributed dual-fired thermal power plants with net capacities of 20MW-100MW.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20827458/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Deal signed for 1,620-home Baghdad residential scheme

    22 October 2026

    Iraq’s National Investment Commission (NIC) has signed an investment contract with local developer Al-Ab’ad Al-Dhahabiya for Investment & Real Estate Development to construct the Abraaj Al-Ameriya residential project in Baghdad.

    The development will comprise 1,620 housing units in the Ameriya district of the capital, located behind the American University of Baghdad.

    Al-Ab’ad Al-Dhahabiya is a subsidiary of Iraq-based Al-Kamil Holding Group.

    The signing was attended by NIC chairman Adel Dakhil Muhammad Al-Yasiri and deputy chairman Salar Muhammad Amin, in addition to a delegation from Al-Kamil Holding Group led by chairman Mustafa Kamil Abboud and Al-Ab’ad Al-Dhahabiya managing director Muhannad Kamil Abboud.

    The project forms part of Iraq’s broader programme to engage private sector developers and international investors to address a nationwide housing deficit of an estimated 3 million units through new residential compounds and masterplanned satellite cities.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20809147/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal