meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy steers clear of global woes

24 April 2023

Related reads on the UAE:

> Two billion riders use Dubai Metro

> Surge in tourists boosts Dubai hospitality

> Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> UAE calls for reform of international financial institutions

> UAE president appoints son as Abu Dhabi crown prince

> UAE and Israel sign customs cooperation deal

> UAE moves ahead with digital currency

 

The UAE economy is expected to maintain a course of robust economic growth in 2023, avoiding the effects of the creeping global economic slowdown.

The Washington-based IMF projects a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the country in 2023 – a rate of expansion well clear of the 2.8 per cent global average amid what has become a worldwide slowdown. The forecast is also ahead of the projected 3.1 per cent growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa.

Though a step down from the 7.4 per cent growth in 2022, and a modest downgrade of 0.7 per cent from the projection in October of a growth rate of 4.2 per cent this year, the UAE’s economic activity remains firmly buoyant. Its growth is forecast to rise again to 3.9 per cent in 2024.

The minor slowdown in the UAE’s economic growth is primarily due to Opec+ cutting oil production quotas, which is reversing some of the past year’s increases in oil production across the region. However, despite the cuts and the weakening of oil prices, the UAE’s oil sector revenues are expected to remain healthy, maintaining a government budget surplus of approximately 3.7 per cent of GDP this year.

Inflationary pressures have also eased since the peak of last year. Disinflation is expected to continue in the coming months, reaching 2.1 per cent this year, down from 4.8 per cent in 2022.

In light of such considerations, the Central Bank of the UAE has also put out a more optimistic projection of a sustained GDP growth rate of 3.9 per cent in 2023. 

More positive still is Issam Abu Suleiman, regional director for the GCC at the World Bank, who has forecast that the UAE economy will continue to grow by 4.1 per cent despite the challenging global economic conditions.

More limited projections also exist, including a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and Oxford Economics that estimates that the growth will slow to 3.2 per cent in 2023, as weaker oil growth weighs on the more buoyant 3.9 per cent growth in the non-oil sector.

Positive sentiment

For businesses on the ground, the projection of close to 4 per cent non-oil growth remains cause for optimism. 

This has been reflected in the S&P UAE Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which rose yet higher from 54.3 in February to 55.9 in March (with a value over 50 indicating growth).

S&P’s report noted a pick-up in new order growth to a five-month high, as well as a rise in capacity pressures that has seen the fastest increase in employment since July 2016. The construction sector was particularly active in hiring amid a slew of new project launches led by off-plan real estate schemes.

The UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas

The UAE’s rebounding real estate market is more generally a key driver of the country’s sustained non-oil growth. House prices are on the rise in Abu Dhabi and property sales in Dubai have hit decade highs in recent months. 

Tourism is also recovering, with Dubai regaining its spot as one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs. International visitors are forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2023.

Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index ranked the UAE second in the world in terms of consumer perceptions of the strength of the economy, with 63 per cent of respondents believing it to have a strong economy. Of those polled, 81 per cent also reported being comfortable with investing in the future and 86 per cent expecting the local economy to be stronger in the next six months.

Ratings agency Moody’s has also reaffirmed the UAE’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing exceptionally low credit risk with its well-balanced budget targets and limited federal spending requirements. 

The introduction of corporate income tax, effective 1 June 2023, will result in further government revenue growth starting from 2025.

Moody’s also pointed to the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification. The country’s progress to date in this area remains well ahead of its GCC peers in terms of the expansion of its non-hydrocarbons revenue, private sector development and overall international attractiveness to foreign businesses and talent.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, the UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas. To achieve this, it needs an average of 7 per cent GDP growth a year, which it hopes to achieve by forging trade agreements and investing in global growth sectors such as green hydrogen.

The UAE’s foreign trade rose by 17 per cent year-on-year to reach AED2.2tn ($599.1bn) in 2022. In the decades ahead, the country aims to attract AED550bn in foreign direct investment by 2031 and AED1tn by 2051.

Abdullah bin Touq al-Marri, the UAE’s minister of economy, has noted that the UAE’s active business environment, which is supported by both national and foreign private sectors and an attractive labour market for international talent, has contributed to the growth of the economy.

By 2030, the government aims to increase the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to 1 million and raise the contribution of SMEs to the country’s non-oil GDP to 63.5 per cent.

In January this year, Dubai also launched its D33 economic agenda, which aims to grow the emirate’s economy to AED32tn by 2033 through a combination of transformative projects and a doubling of foreign trade to AED25.6tn by expanding trade links with Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

This month's special report on the UAE includes: 

> GOVERNMENT: Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> ECONOMY: UAE economy steers clear of global woes

> BANKING: UAE lenders chart a route to growth

> UPSTREAM: Strategic Adnoc projects register notable progress

> DOWNSTREAM: Gas takes centre stage in Adnoc downstream expansion

> POWER: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

> WATER: UAE begins massive reverse osmosis buildup

> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction needs major project launches

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10761289/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Bid deadline extended for Kuwait oil pipeline

    6 May 2026

    State-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has extended the bid deadline for a project to develop a crude oil pipeline in the country.

    The invitation to bid was originally tendered in October last year, with a bid deadline of 18 January 2026.

    Since then, the deadline has been extended several times, and the latest announced bid deadline is 31 May 2026.

    The new pipeline will have a diameter of 20 inches and will carry the crude oil blend known as Ratawi-Burgen.

    The project scope will involve replacing a 30-kilometre section of the pipeline known as CR-058.

    The pipeline originates from the Wafra field and feeds crude oil into the larger 36-inch CR-088 crude oil pipeline.

    The pipelines on this network have had documented corrosion issues in the past, which were linked to slow flow rates within the pipelines.

    The Wafra field is located in the Partitioned Zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

    Both countries equally share the natural resources contained in this region.

    Kuwait is currently pushing to increase its oil production capacity.

    In 2024, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s chief executive, Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, reiterated that his company plans to increase Kuwait’s oil production capacity to 4 million barrels a day (b/d) by 2035.                             

    In September last year, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Tareq Al‑Roumi announced that the country’s oil production capacity had reached 3.2 million b/d, its highest level in more than 10 years.

    Kuwait had a similar capacity in the late 2000s, peaking at a recorded 3.3 million b/d in 2010.

    Since the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February, Kuwait’s oil and gas sector has been rocked by the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which all of the country’s crude is normally exported.

    Kuwait recorded zero crude oil exports in April for the first time since the end of the Gulf War in 1991, according to shipping monitor TankerTrackers.com.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16691664/main5905.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • RTCC wins Diriyah civic quarter deal

    6 May 2026

     

    Saudi gigaproject developer Diriyah Company has awarded an estimated SR730m ($195m) construction contract for civic quarter buildings within the Diriyah development in Riyadh.

    The contract was awarded to local construction firm Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company (RTCC).

    The package comprises administrative and public service buildings, including the office, a post office, civil defence, a police station, the Diriyah operations centre and a traffic police station.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, bids for the contract were submitted in December last year.

    The latest award follows Diriyah’s announcement of a SR1.84bn ($490m) construction contract for the Saudi Arabia Museum of Contemporary Art (SAMoCA) within the Diriyah development. The contract was awarded to a consortium of Egyptian contractor Hassan Allam Construction and Saudi Arabia’s Albawani.

    In March, Diriyah Company awarded an estimated SR2.5bn ($666m) contract to build the Pendry superblock package in the DG2 area.

    The Pendry superblock includes the construction of the Pendry Hotel alongside residential and commercial assets. The package will cover 75,365 square metres and is located in the northwestern district of the DG2 area.

    The previous month, Diriyah Company also awarded a SR717m ($192m) contract for the construction of the One Hotel, located in the Diriyah Two area of the masterplan, with a gross floor area of more than 31,000 sq m.

    The Diriyah masterplan envisages the city as a cultural and lifestyle tourism destination. Located northwest of Riyadh city centre, it will span 14 square kilometres and combine 300 years of history, culture and heritage with hospitality facilities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16684730/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Hormuz crisis revives 1970s-style energy shock

    5 May 2026

    Commentary
    Colin Foreman
    Editor

    Read the May issue of MEED Business Review

    The conflict with Iran is threatening to recalibrate the global energy system. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused an energy security crisis reminiscent of the shocks of the 1970s – both in scale and in its potential long-term implications.

    The 1973-74 energy crisis, triggered by an Opec oil embargo, sent prices soaring and altered the trajectory of the global economy. It spurred the creation of the International Energy Agency, the development of strategic petroleum reserves and a wave of energy-efficiency policies. It also cemented energy-for-security arrangements between the West and the Gulf – relationships now being tested again by the latest conflict.

    Today’s disruption – 11 million barrels of oil a day and around 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping capacity – creates a deficit that far exceeds the roughly 5 million barrels a day removed from the market in 1973. 

    While the shocks of the 1970s ushered in a decade of stagflation and a lasting shift towards diversified supply, the current crisis could accelerate demand destruction and a pivot towards energy sovereignty.

    The story is a developing one. From Vietnam’s cancellation of LNG projects in favour of renewables to the surge in electric vehicle adoption across Europe, the perceived unreliability of traditional supply routes is forcing an unprecedented reorientation of capital. 

    The Middle East – long the indispensable heartbeat of global industry – now risks sustained challenges to its market share as producers in the US, Russia, Africa and South America develop new projects unencumbered by reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

    The structural changes taking root in 2026, like those in 1974, will outlive the conflict itself. Even a swift cessation of hostilities may not allow markets to return to their pre-conflict norms. 

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16685390/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Brookfield to double down on Gulf investment

    5 May 2026

    Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt has said the asset and alternative investment management company intends to increase its investments in the Gulf, despite the ongoing conflict in the region.

    When asked whether the war is changing the way he thinks about the Gulf region during an interview with CNBC at the Milken Institute Global Conference on 4 May, he said: “No, short answer no – in fact, [we’re] doubling down, we are doing more.

    “When you find great businesses, countries, great people, and the market offers you an opportunity to invest when others are not, it is always the best opportunity in the world, so we are doing more. We have been there for 25 years; we are continuing to do all of the investments we have there, and we are going to do more.”

    Flatt suggested the current period of geopolitical stress could accelerate long-term economic strengthening across the Gulf, arguing that governments and businesses will respond by investing in self-sufficiency and strategic infrastructure. “They will eventually build better countries because of this,” he said.

    Flatt added: “They’re going to build resiliency in all their systems. They’re going to build their own artificial intelligence (AI). They’re going to build their own pipelines to the coast. They’re going to do things they didn’t do before. They have to do it. They probably should have, but they’re going to now, and they’re going to be more resilient.”

    UAE meetings

    Flatt has also travelled to the region since the conflict began on 28 February, meeting senior UAE officials to discuss investment opportunities and deepen cooperation. In Abu Dhabi on 9 April, he met Sheikh Khaled Bin Mohamed Bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council. The meeting explored ways to strengthen cooperation in investment and asset management between UAE-based institutions and Brookfield, in line with global economic trends and evolving market demands.

    Two days later in Dubai, Flatt met Sheikh Maktoum Bin Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, First Deputy Ruler of Dubai, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Finance and Chairman of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). During the meeting, both sides explored opportunities to expand cooperation, highlighting the UAE and Dubai’s value proposition for global investors, including an integrated financial system, a flexible and advanced regulatory environment and world-class digital infrastructure. Discussions also covered Dubai’s role as a bridge between East and West, and the emirate’s emphasis on long-term partnerships and a transparent, business-friendly environment.

    Qatar partnership

    Brookfield’s regional activities are not limited to the UAE. In late 2025, the firm and Qai – Qatar’s AI company and a subsidiary of Qatar Investment Authority – announced a strategic partnership to establish a $20bn joint venture focused on AI infrastructure in Qatar and select international markets. The venture is expected to support Qatar’s ambition to become a hub for AI services and infrastructure in the Middle East. It is slated to be backed through Brookfield’s Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Fund, part of a broader AI infrastructure programme targeting up to $100bn in global investment.

    Brookfield Infrastructure maintains a vast and diversified global portfolio characterised by high-barrier-to-entry assets across five core sectors. The data infrastructure segment has become a primary growth engine, currently comprising 150 data centres with significant operating capacity and about 308,000 operational telecom sites. In the utility and energy midstream space, the firm manages over 1,900 miles of electric transmission lines and a network of 2,100 miles of gas pipelines. The transport sector is another cornerstone of the portfolio, anchored by 22,500 miles of rail operations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16686052/main.gif
    Colin Foreman
  • Insurers will only cover a fraction of war damage to oil and gas facilities

    5 May 2026

     

    Insurers are expected to cover only a fraction of the damage to oil and gas facilities in the Middle East caused by the regional war, according to industry sources.

    Standard industrial property and business interruption policies typically exclude damage and disruption caused by acts of war. Companies therefore need specialist war-risk insurance or political violence and terrorism (PVT) insurance to be eligible for payouts.

    While most state-owned national oil companies (NOCs) are likely to have arranged this type of cover for major facilities, it is less common among smaller private or publicly traded companies.

    As a result, many assets – such as smaller fertiliser plants and chemical facilities – are expected to be uninsured for war-related damage.

    “War insurance was never a widely purchased product in the region,” said one source. “It’s one of these things that people never really believe is going to happen.

    “In a lot of companies, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars every year for this kind of product was seen as something they couldn’t really justify.”

    Even companies that purchased war-risk or PVT insurance before the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February are unlikely to be covered for the full extent of war damage.

    War-risk insurance for large assets such as oil refineries or LNG terminals typically carries limits of $200m to $500m.

    In many cases, repairs to the region’s large and complex oil and gas facilities are likely to cost billions of dollars.

    One source said: “If you had, for example, an oil refinery that’s worth $8bn, you couldn’t really buy a war insurance policy to cover the price of a complete rebuild.

    “There just isn’t enough insurance capacity in the market to buy that level of cover.

    “Very often NOCs were buying cover at the highest level they could find, but this was limited by what markets were prepared to insure.”

    Payout timing

    Full insurance settlements for war damage are expected to take significant time – potentially 18 months to two years for some policyholders.

    Payments typically begin with an initial payout of around 20%-30% of the total claim. This is followed by a second payment mid-project – usually once engineering is complete – and then a final payment.

    In most cases, projects to rebuild and repair damaged oil and gas facilities are not expected to be delayed while owners wait for insurance proceeds.

    One source said: “A lot of the owners of these damaged facilities don’t see the current situation as the right time to start rebuilding, but that isn’t because they are waiting for insurance money.

    “The risk of new attacks and more damage is still high, and they are going to want to wait for signs of more stability before they start rebuilding.”

    Experts believe that once the security environment improves, facility owners will begin tendering repair and reconstruction contracts even if insurers have not settled claims.

    “A lot of the companies that operate oil, gas and chemical facilities in the region have access to funds that will allow them to rebuild without being reliant on insurers,” said one source.

    “Even if they have a policy that they expect to pay out, it is likely that they will go ahead with the project before receiving full payment if they think it is the right time to rebuild.”

    Once the security environment improves, the cost of rebuilding fully destroyed units is expected to be higher than when they were originally constructed, due to multiple rebuild projects progressing in parallel across the region.

    This is likely to drive a spike in demand for skilled labour and materials, pushing up costs.

    Market impact

    Insurers providing this type of cover in the region have generally experienced several years of low payout levels, so they are expected to meet claims with limited financial strain.

    However, the volume of claims stemming from the US and Israel’s war with Iran is expected to harden the war-risk and PVT insurance market, increasing premiums for owners of oil and gas facilities for some time.

    Ultimately, the limited scope of coverage means the financial burden of the war will fall more heavily on asset owners than on insurers.

    Even where cover is in place, policy limits mean insurers will only partially offset the cost of rebuilding large facilities, leaving companies and governments to bridge funding gaps.

    The experience is likely to prompt a reassessment of risk across the region’s energy sector, with lenders and investors placing greater emphasis on potential political violence-related damage when evaluating projects.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16683871/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp