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UAE economy steers clear of global woes

24 April 2023

Related reads on the UAE:

> Two billion riders use Dubai Metro

> Surge in tourists boosts Dubai hospitality

> Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> UAE calls for reform of international financial institutions

> UAE president appoints son as Abu Dhabi crown prince

> UAE and Israel sign customs cooperation deal

> UAE moves ahead with digital currency

 

The UAE economy is expected to maintain a course of robust economic growth in 2023, avoiding the effects of the creeping global economic slowdown.

The Washington-based IMF projects a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the country in 2023 – a rate of expansion well clear of the 2.8 per cent global average amid what has become a worldwide slowdown. The forecast is also ahead of the projected 3.1 per cent growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa.

Though a step down from the 7.4 per cent growth in 2022, and a modest downgrade of 0.7 per cent from the projection in October of a growth rate of 4.2 per cent this year, the UAE’s economic activity remains firmly buoyant. Its growth is forecast to rise again to 3.9 per cent in 2024.

The minor slowdown in the UAE’s economic growth is primarily due to Opec+ cutting oil production quotas, which is reversing some of the past year’s increases in oil production across the region. However, despite the cuts and the weakening of oil prices, the UAE’s oil sector revenues are expected to remain healthy, maintaining a government budget surplus of approximately 3.7 per cent of GDP this year.

Inflationary pressures have also eased since the peak of last year. Disinflation is expected to continue in the coming months, reaching 2.1 per cent this year, down from 4.8 per cent in 2022.

In light of such considerations, the Central Bank of the UAE has also put out a more optimistic projection of a sustained GDP growth rate of 3.9 per cent in 2023. 

More positive still is Issam Abu Suleiman, regional director for the GCC at the World Bank, who has forecast that the UAE economy will continue to grow by 4.1 per cent despite the challenging global economic conditions.

More limited projections also exist, including a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and Oxford Economics that estimates that the growth will slow to 3.2 per cent in 2023, as weaker oil growth weighs on the more buoyant 3.9 per cent growth in the non-oil sector.

Positive sentiment

For businesses on the ground, the projection of close to 4 per cent non-oil growth remains cause for optimism. 

This has been reflected in the S&P UAE Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which rose yet higher from 54.3 in February to 55.9 in March (with a value over 50 indicating growth).

S&P’s report noted a pick-up in new order growth to a five-month high, as well as a rise in capacity pressures that has seen the fastest increase in employment since July 2016. The construction sector was particularly active in hiring amid a slew of new project launches led by off-plan real estate schemes.

The UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas

The UAE’s rebounding real estate market is more generally a key driver of the country’s sustained non-oil growth. House prices are on the rise in Abu Dhabi and property sales in Dubai have hit decade highs in recent months. 

Tourism is also recovering, with Dubai regaining its spot as one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs. International visitors are forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2023.

Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index ranked the UAE second in the world in terms of consumer perceptions of the strength of the economy, with 63 per cent of respondents believing it to have a strong economy. Of those polled, 81 per cent also reported being comfortable with investing in the future and 86 per cent expecting the local economy to be stronger in the next six months.

Ratings agency Moody’s has also reaffirmed the UAE’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing exceptionally low credit risk with its well-balanced budget targets and limited federal spending requirements. 

The introduction of corporate income tax, effective 1 June 2023, will result in further government revenue growth starting from 2025.

Moody’s also pointed to the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification. The country’s progress to date in this area remains well ahead of its GCC peers in terms of the expansion of its non-hydrocarbons revenue, private sector development and overall international attractiveness to foreign businesses and talent.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, the UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas. To achieve this, it needs an average of 7 per cent GDP growth a year, which it hopes to achieve by forging trade agreements and investing in global growth sectors such as green hydrogen.

The UAE’s foreign trade rose by 17 per cent year-on-year to reach AED2.2tn ($599.1bn) in 2022. In the decades ahead, the country aims to attract AED550bn in foreign direct investment by 2031 and AED1tn by 2051.

Abdullah bin Touq al-Marri, the UAE’s minister of economy, has noted that the UAE’s active business environment, which is supported by both national and foreign private sectors and an attractive labour market for international talent, has contributed to the growth of the economy.

By 2030, the government aims to increase the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to 1 million and raise the contribution of SMEs to the country’s non-oil GDP to 63.5 per cent.

In January this year, Dubai also launched its D33 economic agenda, which aims to grow the emirate’s economy to AED32tn by 2033 through a combination of transformative projects and a doubling of foreign trade to AED25.6tn by expanding trade links with Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

This month's special report on the UAE includes: 

> GOVERNMENT: Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> ECONOMY: UAE economy steers clear of global woes

> BANKING: UAE lenders chart a route to growth

> UPSTREAM: Strategic Adnoc projects register notable progress

> DOWNSTREAM: Gas takes centre stage in Adnoc downstream expansion

> POWER: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

> WATER: UAE begins massive reverse osmosis buildup

> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction needs major project launches

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John Bambridge

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  • What foreign companies still get wrong about Iraq

    5 August 2026

     

    Improved security, political stability and stronger oil revenues have brought Iraq back into investor conversations in recent years. Higher oil prices restored state finances, revived public spending and reinforced the narrative that Iraq was once again open for business. Relative calm strengthened that sentiment among regional and international firms.

    Yet Iraq’s investment narrative has improved faster than its operating reality. A common mistake among foreign investors has been to view operations in Iraq primarily through the lens of security. While physical security remains important – particularly in the current regional climate – some of the most persistent risks are structural. These include opaque counterparties with hidden political backing, fragmented authority and overlapping power centres, exposure to sanctions-linked networks, and weak and often corrupt law enforcement and judicial institutions.

    For most firms, the real test begins after market entry: when choosing a partner, bidding for contracts, moving funds, securing government approvals or attempting to enforce a contract or court judgment.

    The current conflict has not changed these risks; rather, it has made them harder to ignore.

    Basic due diligence and document checks are often insufficient to mitigate risks in a market as complex as Iraq

    Counterparty risks and how to mitigate them

    For many foreign investors operating in Iraq, one of the most significant risks lies in dealing with local counterparties – business partners, contractors, suppliers, clients and customers. Companies may appear conventional on paper, but ownership and control are often obscured through proxies.

    One challenge is identifying who ultimately controls or benefits from a business and whether it has links to politically exposed persons, armed groups or sanctioned networks. Another is examining its business practices for signs of corruption or other illicit activity.

    Every so often, we encounter seemingly well-established and reputable Iraqi business groups with extensive foreign partnerships that, following in-depth investigation, appear to be ultimately controlled by or linked to politicians, militia leaders, sanctioned individuals or Iran-aligned armed groups. Such connections often indicate a history of corrupt practices, ranging from bribery and the use of high-placed connections to secure government contracts to involvement in sophisticated money-laundering schemes or smuggling and diversion operations benefiting the Iranian state.

    Foreign firms engaging with local counterparties may enter what appears to be a routine commercial arrangement, only to discover later that they are doing business with a highly sensitive or controversial political actor. The consequences extend beyond commercial risk. Regulatory, legal and reputational repercussions can follow, particularly where sanctions or criminal exposure exists.

    Basic due diligence and document checks are often insufficient to mitigate risks in a market as complex as Iraq. Obtaining a deeper understanding of a potential counterparty’s ownership, control and track record is often constrained by the limited availability of credible information.

    One of Iraq’s paradoxes is that it is not a data-poor jurisdiction. It generates abundant media reporting, leaks and social-media narratives. The challenge lies in judging what information matters, who is driving it, and what is missing.

    The government also maintains a publicly accessible corporate register – Tasjeel – which contains basic information on the ownership of Iraq-registered private companies. The details, however, can be incomplete or out of date, and names on official filings often do not reflect actual control. There is also a notable lack of transparency when it comes to legal searches in Iraq: neither criminal nor civil litigation records are publicly available.

    The availability of information also varies across the country. Iraq is not a single commercial jurisdiction. In practice, overlapping and sometimes competing systems of authority exist, particularly between federal Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. Licensing, customs procedures, taxation, political sponsorship and legal recourse can differ significantly, as can the accessibility of official records, with the Kurdistan Region generally offering less transparency.

    For all these reasons, source-based enquiries remain central to any serious risk assessment in Iraq. Human intelligence gathered on the ground through a network of knowledgeable sources often fills critical information gaps, providing context and insights that cannot be obtained from public records alone.

    The impact of regional war and political changes on structural weaknesses

    The recent deterioration in the regional security environment has renewed attention on Iraq. Investors are once again weighing insurance costs, movement restrictions, supply-chain exposure and the risk of disruption from armed escalation.

    The implications, however, extend well beyond immediate security concerns. Regional conflict often strengthens informal power structures, elevates the influence of armed factions, increases exposure to pro-Iran networks and complicates sanctions assessments. Institutions may slow decision‑making, while border friction, diversion risk and financial scrutiny intensify.

    As a result, the risk categories familiar to foreign investors – political, compliance, legal and operational – often become intertwined in Iraq. A politically exposed counterparty can become a sanctions issue; a regulatory delay can turn political; and a commercial dispute may prove unenforceable where the other party operates within a stronger network of influence.

    There is also a new variable in play. Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali Al-Zaidi, is a seasoned businessman with significant interests in banking, the food industry and other sectors. For foreign investors, this background may be viewed as a positive signal, suggesting a greater emphasis on deal-making, investor outreach and easing market entry. However, a businessman at the top can help only up to a point. Iraq’s core business risks are rooted in institutions, networks and entrenched political structures that even a pro‑business leader must navigate.

    Counterparty risk assessment should sit at the centre of any market-entry strategy

    What serious investors should do differently

    None of this means Iraq should be written off. It remains a market with scale, unmet demand and clear areas of opportunity. But it does mean foreign companies need a more disciplined approach.

    Counterparty risk assessment should sit at the centre of any market-entry strategy. That means identifying beneficial ownership, mapping political exposure, screening for sanctions links and understanding the broader network surrounding a local counterparty rather than relying solely on a basic corporate registry check.

    Iraq should also be treated as a market that requires continuous monitoring, not one-off screening. Ownership, influence and compliance exposure can change quickly. A clean partner at onboarding is not guaranteed to remain a low risk a year later.

    About the authors

    Dr Anastasia Nosova is associate managing director at K2 Integrity, a prominent global risk advisory, compliance and corporate investigations firm. Renwar Ahmed is an associate at the company’s Investigations & Disputes practice. 

    MEED’s June 2026 report on Iraq includes:

    > COMMENT: Iraq’s reform window narrows
    > GOVERNMENT: Al-Zaidi takes Iraq’s premiership under US shadow
    > BANKING: Financial challenge tests Iraq’s resolve
    > ECONOMY: Iraq enters era of resilience, reform and rising risks 
    > OIL & GAS:     Iraqi oil and gas sector in crisis
    > POWER & WATER: Focus shifts to delivery of Iraq utilities expansion
    > CONSTRUCTION: Momentum builds in Iraq’s post-war construction sector

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
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  • Riyadh qualifies bidders for Quality Valley PPP project

    5 August 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s State Properties General Authority (SPGA), in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP (NCP), has qualified five consortiums and three individual companies to bid for the contract to develop the Quality Valley Riyadh project.

    The public-private partnership (PPP) scheme will transform the Saudi Standards, Metrology & Quality Organisation’s headquarters site in Riyadh’s Al-Muhammadiyah area into a mixed-use district.

    The first consortium includes Alrashid Properties, Saudi Bonyan Real Estate Investment and Artar Real Estate Development.

    The second brings together Albawardi, Arabian Real Estate Investment Company (Areic) and US-based SkyBridge.

    The third comprises AlOula and Ajdan.

    The fourth consists of Buna, Bany Holding and Sumou Investment.

    The fifth is formed by Assets for Facilities Management (AFM), BA, Heyazah and Ahmad Mohammed Alsaif & Sons for Trade & Investment.

    The three companies qualified to bid individually are Tanama, Al-Ayuni and Mada International Holding.

    In July, MEED reported that SPGA and NCP had tendered the contract, with bidders allowed until 8 October to submit their proposals.

    Known as the Quality Valley Riyadh project, the scheme will be developed on a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer basis.

    The project comprises commercial offices, a four-star hotel and retail facilities. The contract term is 32 years, in addition to a three-year construction period. The site covers about 191,000 square metres.

    UK-based PricewaterhouseCoopers, US-based engineering firm Jacobs and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Nowaisser & Al-Suwaylimi are advising on the project.

    READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:

    > MARKET FOCUS: Maghreb fortunes diverge
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  • L&T announces major contract win from Adnoc Offshore

    4 August 2026

    Indian contractor Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has announced that it has been awarded a major contract by the offshore business of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Offshore).

    Mumbai-headquartered L&T described the order as “ultra-mega”, a term the company uses for contracts valued at more than INR150bn ($1.57bn).

    The project will be executed through a consortium, with its subsidiary LTEH Offshore serving as the lead partner, L&T said in a statement on 4 August.

    MEED understands that the contract won by L&T relates to an offshore package that forms part of a major Adnoc Offshore project to produce up to 600 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) of natural gas by developing the Umm Shaif gas cap in Abu Dhabi.

    L&T won the first offshore package of the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project in a consortium with Saudi Arabia/UAE-based Lamprell, MEED reported in July.

    The following contractors have secured the two offshore packages and one onshore package of the Umm Shaif gas cap project, MEED previously reported:

    • First offshore package – fabrication of a 30,000-tonne gas compression system: Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Lamprell (Saudi Arabia/UAE)
    • Second offshore package – fabrication of another 30,000-tonne gas compression system: McDermott (US)
    • Onshore package – EPC of gas inlet and processing systems on Das Island: China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Company (CPECC)

    “The project involves the development of multiple offshore facilities. As the lead consortium partner, LTEH Offshore will execute the major share of the project scope, covering engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning (EPCIC) of the offshore facilities, in addition to the upgrade of existing facilities,” L&T said in its statement.

    “A significant portion of the fabrication work will be undertaken at L&T’s state-of-the-art fabrication yards, leveraging the company’s integrated EPCIC capabilities and extensive track record in delivering large and complex offshore developments across the region,” the Bombay Stock Exchange-listed company added.

    Umm Shaif gas cap project

    Adnoc Offshore operates the Umm Shaif hydrocarbons development, which is located 150 kilometres (km) northwest of the city of Abu Dhabi. The field is located within Abu Dhabi’s offshore Umm Shaif and Nasr hydrocarbons concession, previously operated by former Adnoc Group companies Adma-Opco and Zadco.

    In March and April 2018, Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs (SCFEA) awarded a 10% stake in the Umm Shaif and Nasr offshore block to Italy’s Eni, 20% to France’s TotalEnergies and 10% to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Adnoc Group retained the majority 60% interest. The operators produce a total of about 460,000 b/d of oil from the Umm Shaif and Nasr block.

    Adnoc, along with its foreign partners, announced achieving a final investment decision (FID) worth $6.2bn on the Umm Shaif gas cap project on 21 July. The FID includes three EPC packages totalling $5.1bn for large-scale offshore infrastructure, “awarded to consortiums comprising major UAE and international contractors,” the state enterprise said without disclosing the contractors it had selected or the scope of work on the packages.

    Adnoc added that, as part of the FID, it has also awarded a $365m contract to its subsidiary Adnoc Drilling for a 14-well drilling and integrated drilling services scope, to be delivered over 18 months using three existing rigs.

    Production from the development is expected by 2030, the Abu Dhabi energy giant said.

    The primary objective of the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project is to increase gas production by 550 million cubic feet a day (cf/d) and raise associated condensate output by 50,000 barrels a day (b/d).

    Adnoc Offshore intends to feed about 520 million cf/d of the additional produced gas into Adnoc Group’s sales gas grid.

    Adnoc Offshore is understood to have issued the main EPC tender for the Umm Shaif gas cap and surface pressure boosting project in the first quarter of 2025.

    Contractors submitted technical bids for the three EPC packages by the 30 October deadline last year, while commercial bids were submitted by the deadline of 2 February this year.

    The following contractors are among those understood to have been bidding for the three EPC packages, according to sources:

    Offshore package 1:

    • Saipem (Italy) / Seatrium (Singapore)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Lamprell (Saudi Arabia/UAE)
    • NMDC Energy (UAE) / Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)

    Offshore package 2:

    • China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (COOEC)
    • McDermott (US)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India) / Lamprell (Saudi Arabia/UAE)
    • NMDC Energy (UAE) / Hyundai Heavy Industries (South Korea)

    Onshore package:

    • Archirodon (Greece)
    • China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Company (CPECC)
    • Engineering for the Petroleum & Process Industries (Enppi; Egypt)
    • Galfar Emirates (UAE branch of Oman’s Galfar Engineering & Construction)
    • Target Engineering Construction Company (UAE)

    Australian firm Worley has performed front-end engineering and design (feed) work on the project.

    Gas is produced from the Umm Shaif Khuff and Uweinat reservoirs, as well as from the Arab C and Arab D Early Production Scheme 2. The Umm Shaif Khuff reservoir is a formation that consists of dry gas volumetric reservoirs located in the Umm Shaif field.

    Khuff reservoirs have been in production in Abu Dhabi since August 1989. Umm Shaif Khuff gas is currently produced from 28 active wells within the Umm Shaif field. A majority of these wells supply gas to Adnoc Group subsidiaries Adnoc LNG and Adnoc Gas Processing, with the rest supporting oil reservoirs at the Umm Shaif field through gas injection.

    The Umm Shaif Super Complex (USSC) processes and transports oil, condensates and natural gas in separate pipelines to Das Island for further processing and export. The condensates collected from the USSC are transported to Das Island through an 18-inch pipeline stretching 34.4km, or are spiked into the 36-inch Adnoc main oil line.

    The gas collected from the USSC is transported to Das Island through two 46-inch pipelines, which also run 34.4km.

    Pressure at the Umm Shaif Khuff gas reservoirs will start to decline by the end of 2028. The flowing wellhead pressures at some of the Khuff gas wellhead towers are likely to reduce, so boosting well deliverability and increasing the flowrates is necessary.

    Therefore, new Khuff surface pressure boosting facilities are required to maintain the plateau – with a goal of achieving a 90% gas recovery factor – and increase production beyond the end of the plateau by lowering pressure at the Khuff reservoirs.

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  • Masdar renews $300m revolving credit facility

    4 August 2026

    Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) has renewed its five-year $300m revolving credit facility with a syndicate of 25 international banks.

    The company said the refinancing strengthens its liquidity position and overall balance sheet resilience as it works towards its target of reaching 100GW of renewable energy portfolio capacity by 2030.

    According to Masdar, the lending syndicate comprises 14 banks from Europe, four from the US and seven from Asia.

    Masdar’s renewable energy portfolio reached 65GW earlier this year, placing the company about two-thirds of the way towards its 100GW target by 2030. Of that, Masdar said 45GW is operational, under construction or has reached final close, while a further 20GW comprises projects in advanced stages of development.

    The company has said it plans to deploy a further $30bn-$35bn in equity and project finance by 2030 to achieve its capacity target, adding an average of 10GW of new capacity each year.

    The next phase of growth will be funded through a combination of equity, green bonds and long-term project finance. 

    Last month, Masdar reached financial close on its $6.1bn round-the-clock renewable energy project in Abu Dhabi, securing a $5.1bn financing package from a consortium of 13 local and international banks.

    The project combines 5.2GW of solar generation with 19GWh of battery energy storage and is expected to begin operations in 2027.

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  • Jordan awards EPC contract for Maan wind farm

    4 August 2026

    Jordan’s state-owned Samra Electric Power Company (Sepco) has awarded an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract to Al-Mawakea General Contracting Technology Company for a 25MW wind power project in the Batn Al-Ghul area of Maan Governorate.

    The project is being developed by Jordan’s Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources (MEMR) under a cooperation agreement signed with Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) in February. The UAE, represented by Masdar, is fully financing the project.

    The project will comprise five wind turbines with a combined generation capacity of 25MW. Masdar is responsible for providing technical oversight, supervising implementation, managing logistics and shipping, and monitoring progress during the execution phase.

    Sepco will operate and maintain the wind farm after construction is completed and the facility is handed over. MEMR is responsible for securing the project site and obtaining the required regulatory approvals and permits.

    Sepco operates and maintains the government-owned 80MW Maan wind farm in Maan Governorate. The $150m Maan wind power plant (phases one and two) was commissioned in 2017, with Spain’s Elecnor working as the main EPC contractor. The two phases combined have a total installed capacity of 80MW.

    Separately, Masdar signed a joint development agreement with MEMR in 2023 to develop a 1GW wind project with a battery energy storage system near the Port of Aqaba in Jordan. It is understood that the project is still in its initial stages of development. 

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