meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy steers clear of global woes

24 April 2023

Related reads on the UAE:

> Two billion riders use Dubai Metro

> Surge in tourists boosts Dubai hospitality

> Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> UAE calls for reform of international financial institutions

> UAE president appoints son as Abu Dhabi crown prince

> UAE and Israel sign customs cooperation deal

> UAE moves ahead with digital currency

 

The UAE economy is expected to maintain a course of robust economic growth in 2023, avoiding the effects of the creeping global economic slowdown.

The Washington-based IMF projects a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the country in 2023 – a rate of expansion well clear of the 2.8 per cent global average amid what has become a worldwide slowdown. The forecast is also ahead of the projected 3.1 per cent growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa.

Though a step down from the 7.4 per cent growth in 2022, and a modest downgrade of 0.7 per cent from the projection in October of a growth rate of 4.2 per cent this year, the UAE’s economic activity remains firmly buoyant. Its growth is forecast to rise again to 3.9 per cent in 2024.

The minor slowdown in the UAE’s economic growth is primarily due to Opec+ cutting oil production quotas, which is reversing some of the past year’s increases in oil production across the region. However, despite the cuts and the weakening of oil prices, the UAE’s oil sector revenues are expected to remain healthy, maintaining a government budget surplus of approximately 3.7 per cent of GDP this year.

Inflationary pressures have also eased since the peak of last year. Disinflation is expected to continue in the coming months, reaching 2.1 per cent this year, down from 4.8 per cent in 2022.

In light of such considerations, the Central Bank of the UAE has also put out a more optimistic projection of a sustained GDP growth rate of 3.9 per cent in 2023. 

More positive still is Issam Abu Suleiman, regional director for the GCC at the World Bank, who has forecast that the UAE economy will continue to grow by 4.1 per cent despite the challenging global economic conditions.

More limited projections also exist, including a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and Oxford Economics that estimates that the growth will slow to 3.2 per cent in 2023, as weaker oil growth weighs on the more buoyant 3.9 per cent growth in the non-oil sector.

Positive sentiment

For businesses on the ground, the projection of close to 4 per cent non-oil growth remains cause for optimism. 

This has been reflected in the S&P UAE Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which rose yet higher from 54.3 in February to 55.9 in March (with a value over 50 indicating growth).

S&P’s report noted a pick-up in new order growth to a five-month high, as well as a rise in capacity pressures that has seen the fastest increase in employment since July 2016. The construction sector was particularly active in hiring amid a slew of new project launches led by off-plan real estate schemes.

The UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas

The UAE’s rebounding real estate market is more generally a key driver of the country’s sustained non-oil growth. House prices are on the rise in Abu Dhabi and property sales in Dubai have hit decade highs in recent months. 

Tourism is also recovering, with Dubai regaining its spot as one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs. International visitors are forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2023.

Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index ranked the UAE second in the world in terms of consumer perceptions of the strength of the economy, with 63 per cent of respondents believing it to have a strong economy. Of those polled, 81 per cent also reported being comfortable with investing in the future and 86 per cent expecting the local economy to be stronger in the next six months.

Ratings agency Moody’s has also reaffirmed the UAE’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing exceptionally low credit risk with its well-balanced budget targets and limited federal spending requirements. 

The introduction of corporate income tax, effective 1 June 2023, will result in further government revenue growth starting from 2025.

Moody’s also pointed to the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification. The country’s progress to date in this area remains well ahead of its GCC peers in terms of the expansion of its non-hydrocarbons revenue, private sector development and overall international attractiveness to foreign businesses and talent.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, the UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas. To achieve this, it needs an average of 7 per cent GDP growth a year, which it hopes to achieve by forging trade agreements and investing in global growth sectors such as green hydrogen.

The UAE’s foreign trade rose by 17 per cent year-on-year to reach AED2.2tn ($599.1bn) in 2022. In the decades ahead, the country aims to attract AED550bn in foreign direct investment by 2031 and AED1tn by 2051.

Abdullah bin Touq al-Marri, the UAE’s minister of economy, has noted that the UAE’s active business environment, which is supported by both national and foreign private sectors and an attractive labour market for international talent, has contributed to the growth of the economy.

By 2030, the government aims to increase the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to 1 million and raise the contribution of SMEs to the country’s non-oil GDP to 63.5 per cent.

In January this year, Dubai also launched its D33 economic agenda, which aims to grow the emirate’s economy to AED32tn by 2033 through a combination of transformative projects and a doubling of foreign trade to AED25.6tn by expanding trade links with Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

This month's special report on the UAE includes: 

> GOVERNMENT: Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> ECONOMY: UAE economy steers clear of global woes

> BANKING: UAE lenders chart a route to growth

> UPSTREAM: Strategic Adnoc projects register notable progress

> DOWNSTREAM: Gas takes centre stage in Adnoc downstream expansion

> POWER: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

> WATER: UAE begins massive reverse osmosis buildup

> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction needs major project launches

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10761289/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Morocco to invest $300m in Casablanca port expansion

    9 July 2026

    Marsa Maroc, Morocco’s biggest port operator, has announced that it will invest MD3bn ($300m) to expand container-handling capacity at the Port of Casablanca, following the grant of a 20-year extension to its concession for operating Container Terminal 3 (TC3).

    The concession extension will be undertaken through Marsa Maroc's subsidiary, TC3PC.

    Marsa Maroc will increase TC3’s capacity from 600,000 to 900,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) by 2030.

    The wider programme is expected to lift the Port of Casablanca’s overall container capacity to more than 2 million TEUs.

    Planned works include extending quay infrastructure, modernising cargo-handling equipment and reconfiguring storage areas at the two container terminals operated by Marsa Maroc at the port.

    The company said that these upgrades are intended to improve operational efficiency and enhance cargo throughput.

    The latest announcement follows Marsa Maroc's unveiling of a MD21bn ($2.1bn) investment programme in March, as it looks to reinforce its position as a leading regional ports player through to the end of this decade.

    Marsa Maroc reported consolidated revenue of MD5.7bn ($578m) in 2025, a 16% rise from MD5.8bn ($500m) a year earlier.

    The company attributed the growth to increased volumes handled at its terminals, as well as a broader range of logistics services.

    Operationally, cargo throughput climbed to more than 67 million tonnes, up 6% year-on-year, and a record for the group.

    Container volumes also hit a new milestone, topping 3 million TEUs for the first time, consolidating Marsa Maroc’s standing as Africa’s fourth-largest container operator.

    Marsa Maroc is the fourth-largest listed firm in Morocco by market capitalisation, according to UK-based Drewry Maritime Research.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17588652/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Riyadh tenders Quality Valley mixed-use PPP project

    9 July 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s State Properties General Authority, in collaboration with the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP, has tendered a contract to transform the Saudi Standards, Metrology & Quality Organisation's headquarters site in Riyadh’s Al-Muhammadiyah area into a mixed-use district.

    The firms have been allowed until 8 October to submit their proposals.

    Known as the Quality Valley Riyadh project, the public-private partnership (PPP) scheme will be developed on a design, build, finance, operate, maintain and transfer basis.

    In May, MEED reported that 59 firms had expressed interest in the contract to develop the project.

    Unless otherwise stated, the interested companies are local. They now include:

    Developers / real estate developers:

    • Abdulrahman Saad Alrashid & Sons (Artar)
    • Ajdan Real Estate Development Company
    • AlBawani
    • Al-Gihaz Holding
    • Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting
    • Alameriah Development
    • Alargan Projects Company
    • Al-Fahd Company
    • Alkhorayef Investment & Development
    • Al-Soliman Real Estate
    • Al-Saedan Real Estate
    • Asyad Holding Company
    • Arabian Construction Company (UAE)
    • Business Deal Company
    • Ezdihar Real Estate Company
    • Hay Developments
    • Heyazah Real Estate Development
    • Kinan International 
    • Ladun Investment Company
    • Lamar Holding (Bahrain)
    • Ledar Investment
    • Liwan Real Estate Development
    • Mada International
    • Naif Alrajhi Investment
    • Pan Kingdom Real Estate
    • Refad Investment & Real Estate Development
    • Retal Urban Development Company
    • Al-Mozaini Real Estate
    • Safari Group
    • SkyBridge (US)
    • Sumou Real Estate
    • Tatweer
    • Technical Development Company
    • Telad Real Estate
    • Zamil Group
    • Zeoof Real Estate Investment & Development

    Contractors:

    • Al-Kifah Holding Company
    • BEC Arabia
    • Buna Al-Khaleej Contracting Company
    • Saudi Binladin Group
    • Fanar Arabian International
    • International Hospitals Construction Company
    • Mohammed Ali Al-Swailem Trading & Contracting (Masco)
    • Mobco Civil Construction
    • Shar Company
    • Shibh Al-Jazira Contracting Company
    • Urbas Middle East (Spain)

    Consultants:

    • Alteraz Design Architectural & Engineering Consultant
    • Dar Al-Riyadh
    • Meinhardt Group (Singapore)
    • Equity Investors
    • Ahmed Al-Thunayan Investment Group
    • Aldrees Industrial and Trading Company
    • Tanami Holding
    • Own United
    • SAH First Investment Company  
    • ​Sumou Global Investment / Poly Manners Architecture
    • Financial Services Providers​​
    • GIB Capital
    • Mefic Capital
    • SNB Capital

    The project comprises commercial offices, a four-star hotel and retail facilities. The contract term is 32 years, in addition to a three-year construction period. The site covers about 191,000 square metres.

    UK-based PricewaterhouseCoopers, US-based engineering firm Jacobs and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Nowaisser & Al-Suwaylimi are advising on the project.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17603519/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egypt gold project to start commercial production next year

    9 July 2026

    Egypt’s Abu Marawat gold project is on track to begin commercial production in 2027, according to a statement by the North African country’s Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry.

    This target was highlighted during a meeting with Abu Marawat Gold Mines Company to review and discuss the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment study for the gold mining and extraction project in the Abu Marwat area of ​​the Eastern Desert.

    Abu Marawat Gold Mines Company is the Egyptian joint-venture company set up to develop and run the Abu Marawat gold project.

    It is owned by Canada’s Aton Resources and Egypt’s Mineral Resources & Mining Industries Authority (MRMIA).

    During the meeting, Yasser Ramadan, chairman of the MRMIA, said that the Marawat project serves as a practical model for the Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry’s strategy to establish modern mining operations.

    The Abu Marwat project is located in the Arabian-Nubian Shield region of the Eastern Desert.

    The concession covers an area of more than 57 square kilometres.

    Aton Resources has been advancing the exploration and development of the Abu Marawat concession since its award in 2007, with active exploration starting on the ground in 2009.

    The meeting with Abu Marawat Gold Mines Company was attended by executives from the Petroleum & Mineral Resources Ministry, the MRMIA and the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, as well as representatives from the Red Sea and Qena governorates, members of the House of Representatives and local community leaders.

    READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Stress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17603106/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Firms submit King Salman airport project prequalifications

    8 July 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabia’s King Salman International Airport Development Company (KSIADC) received prequalification statements on 1 July from contractors for two new packages at King Salman International airport (KSIA) in Riyadh.

    These include the construction of a permanent East-West corridor and landside access roads serving the North and South terminals.

    The scope covers the construction of roads, bridges and tunnels.

    The client is expected to float the tenders soon.

    The latest development follows KSIADC's selection of three groups to deliver the Terminal 6 apron, taxiways and other airfield infrastructure at KSIA.

    KSIADC, which is backed by Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund, will initially deliver the project on an early contractor involvement basis.

    In March, MEED exclusively reported that KSIADC had selected three groups for the construction of Terminal 6.

    In November last year, MEED reported that KSIADC was targeting mid-2026 to award the contract for the construction of Terminal 6.

    MEED reported in May 2025 that US firm Bechtel Corporation had been appointed as the delivery partner for the terminals at KSIA.

    According to local media reports, KSIADC’s acting CEO, Marco Mejia, said the project developer has completed the project’s masterplan.

    The reports added that Terminal 6 will boost the airport’s capacity by 40 million passengers.

    The project is expected to be delivered before the start of Expo 2030 Riyadh.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17588533/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • WEBINAR: Saudi Giga Projects: Market Update for Q3 2026

    8 July 2026

    Webinar: Saudi Giga Projects: Market Update for Q3 2026 
    Tuesday 21 July 2026 | 11:00 AM GST  |  Register now

    Agenda:

    • Saudi projects market outlook and giga projects update
    • 2026 contract awards, project activity and market performance
    • Giga project reprioritisation, funding allocation and delivery progress
    • Key project announcements, milestones and market developments to watch
    • Major contracts awarded across construction, infrastructure and utilities
    • Upcoming tenders and contract award opportunities over the next 6–12 months
    • Geopolitical risks and their impact on project execution and investment
    • Progress across NEOM, The Red Sea, Diriyah, Qiddiya and New Murabba
    • Major non-giga project opportunities and growth sectors across Saudi Arabia
    • Short-, medium- and long-term outlook for the Saudi projects market
    • Audience Q&A

    Hosted by: Yasir Iqbal, MEED's construction editor

    Click here to register

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17588750/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal