meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy steers clear of global woes

24 April 2023

Related reads on the UAE:

> Two billion riders use Dubai Metro

> Surge in tourists boosts Dubai hospitality

> Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> UAE calls for reform of international financial institutions

> UAE president appoints son as Abu Dhabi crown prince

> UAE and Israel sign customs cooperation deal

> UAE moves ahead with digital currency

 

The UAE economy is expected to maintain a course of robust economic growth in 2023, avoiding the effects of the creeping global economic slowdown.

The Washington-based IMF projects a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the country in 2023 – a rate of expansion well clear of the 2.8 per cent global average amid what has become a worldwide slowdown. The forecast is also ahead of the projected 3.1 per cent growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa.

Though a step down from the 7.4 per cent growth in 2022, and a modest downgrade of 0.7 per cent from the projection in October of a growth rate of 4.2 per cent this year, the UAE’s economic activity remains firmly buoyant. Its growth is forecast to rise again to 3.9 per cent in 2024.

The minor slowdown in the UAE’s economic growth is primarily due to Opec+ cutting oil production quotas, which is reversing some of the past year’s increases in oil production across the region. However, despite the cuts and the weakening of oil prices, the UAE’s oil sector revenues are expected to remain healthy, maintaining a government budget surplus of approximately 3.7 per cent of GDP this year.

Inflationary pressures have also eased since the peak of last year. Disinflation is expected to continue in the coming months, reaching 2.1 per cent this year, down from 4.8 per cent in 2022.

In light of such considerations, the Central Bank of the UAE has also put out a more optimistic projection of a sustained GDP growth rate of 3.9 per cent in 2023. 

More positive still is Issam Abu Suleiman, regional director for the GCC at the World Bank, who has forecast that the UAE economy will continue to grow by 4.1 per cent despite the challenging global economic conditions.

More limited projections also exist, including a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and Oxford Economics that estimates that the growth will slow to 3.2 per cent in 2023, as weaker oil growth weighs on the more buoyant 3.9 per cent growth in the non-oil sector.

Positive sentiment

For businesses on the ground, the projection of close to 4 per cent non-oil growth remains cause for optimism. 

This has been reflected in the S&P UAE Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which rose yet higher from 54.3 in February to 55.9 in March (with a value over 50 indicating growth).

S&P’s report noted a pick-up in new order growth to a five-month high, as well as a rise in capacity pressures that has seen the fastest increase in employment since July 2016. The construction sector was particularly active in hiring amid a slew of new project launches led by off-plan real estate schemes.

The UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas

The UAE’s rebounding real estate market is more generally a key driver of the country’s sustained non-oil growth. House prices are on the rise in Abu Dhabi and property sales in Dubai have hit decade highs in recent months. 

Tourism is also recovering, with Dubai regaining its spot as one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs. International visitors are forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2023.

Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index ranked the UAE second in the world in terms of consumer perceptions of the strength of the economy, with 63 per cent of respondents believing it to have a strong economy. Of those polled, 81 per cent also reported being comfortable with investing in the future and 86 per cent expecting the local economy to be stronger in the next six months.

Ratings agency Moody’s has also reaffirmed the UAE’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing exceptionally low credit risk with its well-balanced budget targets and limited federal spending requirements. 

The introduction of corporate income tax, effective 1 June 2023, will result in further government revenue growth starting from 2025.

Moody’s also pointed to the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification. The country’s progress to date in this area remains well ahead of its GCC peers in terms of the expansion of its non-hydrocarbons revenue, private sector development and overall international attractiveness to foreign businesses and talent.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, the UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas. To achieve this, it needs an average of 7 per cent GDP growth a year, which it hopes to achieve by forging trade agreements and investing in global growth sectors such as green hydrogen.

The UAE’s foreign trade rose by 17 per cent year-on-year to reach AED2.2tn ($599.1bn) in 2022. In the decades ahead, the country aims to attract AED550bn in foreign direct investment by 2031 and AED1tn by 2051.

Abdullah bin Touq al-Marri, the UAE’s minister of economy, has noted that the UAE’s active business environment, which is supported by both national and foreign private sectors and an attractive labour market for international talent, has contributed to the growth of the economy.

By 2030, the government aims to increase the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to 1 million and raise the contribution of SMEs to the country’s non-oil GDP to 63.5 per cent.

In January this year, Dubai also launched its D33 economic agenda, which aims to grow the emirate’s economy to AED32tn by 2033 through a combination of transformative projects and a doubling of foreign trade to AED25.6tn by expanding trade links with Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

This month's special report on the UAE includes: 

> GOVERNMENT: Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> ECONOMY: UAE economy steers clear of global woes

> BANKING: UAE lenders chart a route to growth

> UPSTREAM: Strategic Adnoc projects register notable progress

> DOWNSTREAM: Gas takes centre stage in Adnoc downstream expansion

> POWER: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

> WATER: UAE begins massive reverse osmosis buildup

> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction needs major project launches

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10761289/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Sabic registers profit in first quarter of 2026

    8 May 2026

    Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic) returned to profit in the first quarter of 2026, posting a net income of SR13.2m ($3.52m) compared to a SR1.21bn loss a year earlier. 

    The Saudi petrochemicals ​giant posted adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of SR4.15bn for the three months to 31 March, up 25% from the previous quarter.

    The company’s revenue fell 6% quarter-on-quarter to SR26.15bn ($6.97m).

    Adjusted net income was recorded in at SR816m, compared to a loss in the previous quarter, while adjusted earnings per share stood at SR0.27.

    Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes rose to SR1.45bn, an increase of SR1.01bn from the prior quarter.

    Sabic said its net position shifted to a debt of SR2.77bn at the end of March, from a net cash position of SR3.61bn at the end of 2025.

    “Our transformation journey continues to deliver performance improvements that unlock greater value for our shareholders. We realised $220m at the Ebitda level on a recurring basis during the first quarter of 2026, in line with our planned improvement rate. This keeps us on track towards our cumulative 2030 annual target of $3bn, consisting of $1.4bn in cost excellence and $1.6bn in value creation,” Sabic CEO Faisal Alfaqeer said.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16719476/main1840.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • Dubai extends bids for Hassyan SWRO pipeline packages

    7 May 2026

    Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (Dewa) has extended the bid submission deadlines for two water transmission pipeline packages linked to phase two of the Hassyan seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant in Dubai.

    The tenders cover the supply, installation, testing and commissioning works for glass reinforced epoxy (GRE) water transmission pipelines. The project will enable potable water to be transmitted from the phase two plant into Dubai’s transmission network.

    The tender bond for the first package is AED9.6m ($2.6mn). The tender bond for the second project is AED17.9m. The deadlines for the two projects have been pushed back to 2 June and 4 June, respectively.

    Local firms Al-Nasr Contracting, Tristar E&C and Wade Adams, along with UAE firm Binladin Contracting Group, are among the companies expected to submit bids for the main contracts for these projects.

    In April, Dewa issued two separate tenders for transmission projects in the emirate.

    The first tender covers the supply, installation, testing and commissioning of GRE water transmission pipelines and associated works at several locations in Dubai. The closing date for submissions is 4 June. Bidders are required to provide a tender bond of AED9m ($2.45m).

    The second tender relates to 132kV cable works and associated modifications at several substations, including the Autosouq, Crystal and Danaro Road substations. The package also includes a new 132kV cable circuit and cable shifting works linked to the DXB INTRL 400/132kV substation.

    The bid submission deadline is 11 June, with a required tender bond of AED17.5m.

    In January, Dewa announced that construction of the 180 million imperial gallons a day phase one of the Hassyan SWRO independent water project was 90% complete.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16716599/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Teams form for Qiddiya high-speed rail PPP

    7 May 2026

     

    Firms are forming joint ventures as part of a public-private partnership (PPP) package to bid for the upcoming works on the Qiddiya high-speed rail project in Riyadh.

    The latest development follows Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City, Qiddiya Investment Company and the National Centre for Privatisation & PPP receiving prequalification statements from firms by 30 April for the PPP package of the rail project.

    The consortiums that are planning to bid for the PPP package are:

    • McQuarie / Hitachi / Keolis / Albawani / WeBuild / Hyundai / HyundaiRotem
    • ⁠Plenary / Siemens / MTR / FCC / Nesma & Partners / Freyssinet
    • ⁠Vision Invest / CRRC / Mapa 
    • Mada International / ⁠Renfe / Alstom / Hassan Allam Construction / El-Seif Engineering Contracting / China State Construction Engineering Corporation / Limak Holding
    • Lamar Holding / Talgo / Mermec / China Harbour Engineering Company / Al-Ayuni Investment & Contracting

    The prequalification notice was issued on 19 January, and a project briefing session was held on 23 February at Qiddiya Entertainment City.

    The Qiddiya high-speed rail project, also known as Q-Express, will cover 84 kilometres, connecting King Salman International airport and King Abdullah Financial District with Qiddiya City.

    The line will operate at speeds of up to 250 kilometres an hour, reaching Qiddiya in 30 minutes.

    There are five stations planned: Qiddiya Grand Central Station, Qiddiya Uptown Station, King Abdullah Financial District, Terminal 6 King Salman International Airport (KSIA) and Iconic Terminal at KSIA.

    Last month, MEED exclusively reported that contractors had submitted their prequalification statements for the engineering, procurement, construction and financing package by 16 April.

    In November 2023, MEED reported that French consultant Egis had been appointed as the technical adviser for the project. UK-based consultancy Ernst & Young is acting as the transaction adviser, and Ashurst is the legal adviser.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16716585/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Contractor wins $218m Aramco-backed logistics hub deal

    7 May 2026

     

    Saudi Amana, the local affiliate of UAE-based construction firm Group Amana, has won an estimated SR820m ($218m) contract to build a logistics complex at King Salman Energy Park (Spark) in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province.

    Asmo, the logistics joint venture of Saudi Aramco and DHL Supply Chain, awarded the contract.

    Asmo received the main contract bids on 18 March, as MEED reported.

    Al-Khobar-based engineering firm House of Consulting Office is the project consultant.

    In February, Asmo signed an agreement with Bahrain‑headquartered Arcapita Group Holdings to deliver the project at Spark.

    The project will feature a 43,000-square-metre (sq m), temperature-controlled Grade A warehouse; more than 3,000 sq m of offices and staff amenities; 5,300 sq m dedicated to chemicals storage; and an open yard covering about 1.2 million sq m.

    Planned for large-scale industrial use, the site is expected to incorporate advanced warehouse and building management systems, end-to-end digital connectivity, automation and robotics.

    It will also be developed in line with internationally recognised sustainability standards, featuring solar photovoltaic readiness, electric-vehicle charging infrastructure and a target of Leed Gold certification.

    The development aims to support the next stage of Saudi Arabia’s logistics and supply chain expansion.

    Under the deal structure, Arcapita will provide funding and retain ownership of the asset, while Asmo will develop the facility and then lease and operate it under a 22-year occupational lease.

    According to a statement, “the scheme will be executed via a forward-funding model, underscoring a long-term commitment to national infrastructure”.

    Asmo added that this will be its first purpose-built logistics centre and one of four strategic locations planned to anchor its nationwide logistics network, aligned with the National Transport and Logistics Strategy under Saudi Vision 2030.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16715420/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Kuwait postpones bid deadlines for four downstream oil tenders

    7 May 2026

     

    Kuwait has extended bid deadlines for four tendered contracts that are all focused on the country’s Mina Al-Ahmadi (MAA) refinery.

    The contracts include a project that has been tendered by state-owned downstream operator Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) to upgrade water transmission and storage infrastructure at the refinery.

    The contract will use the engineering, procurement and construction model and the tender was originally issued in October 2025 with an initial bid deadline of 4 January 2026.

    The tender has already seen several extensions and the latest rescheduling has set the bid deadline back from 19 April 2026 until 10 May 2026.

    The project is expected to take two years to complete and its scope is focused on expanding water storage capacity at the facility, either through extending existing tanks or building new tanks.

    The winning bidder will also be responsible for developing associated infrastructure and upgrading related systems that transport desalinated water to the refinery, such as pipelines and other infrastructure.

    In its 2024-25 annual report, KNPC said the project will help to meet demand for water at the facility’s refining and gas production units.

    The other three contracts are all maintenance contracts, which were also tendered by KNPC and have had their bid deadlines extended until 30 June 2026.

    The first of these is focused on mechanical maintenance of the Clean Fuel Project (CFP) units at the facility, as well as gas liquid production facilities.

    The CFP units were added to the refinery as part of the $16bn CFP, and were brought online in 2021.

    The project aimed to increase Kuwait’s capacity to produce low-sulfur fuels and, as part of the project, the MAA refinery was integrated with Kuwait’s Mina Abdulla (MAB) refinery.

    The project increased the capacity of MAB to 454,000 barrels a day (b/d) and the MAA refinery to 346,000 b/d.

    The second maintenance contract is focused on the mechanical maintenance of refining and production units at the MAA facility. The third contract is focused on workshop maintenance at the facility.

    The MAA refinery has been hit in several attacks during the US and Israel's war with Iran, which started on 28 February 2026.

    The full extent of the damage to the facility is currently unclear.

    Last month, MEED revealed that state-owned oil companies in Kuwait have fast-tracked the award of contracts to repair damage to infrastructure in the oil and gas sector.

    To expedite the award of contracts, deals were directly negotiated with trusted contractors without public tenders.

    The contracts were negotiated by senior officials at Kuwait Petroleum Corporation subsidiaries including Kuwait Oil Company and KNPC, sources said.

    It is not known whether any of these contracts related to repairs at the MAA refinery.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here

     

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16715383/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp