meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy steers clear of global woes

24 April 2023

Related reads on the UAE:

> Two billion riders use Dubai Metro

> Surge in tourists boosts Dubai hospitality

> Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> UAE calls for reform of international financial institutions

> UAE president appoints son as Abu Dhabi crown prince

> UAE and Israel sign customs cooperation deal

> UAE moves ahead with digital currency

 

The UAE economy is expected to maintain a course of robust economic growth in 2023, avoiding the effects of the creeping global economic slowdown.

The Washington-based IMF projects a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the country in 2023 – a rate of expansion well clear of the 2.8 per cent global average amid what has become a worldwide slowdown. The forecast is also ahead of the projected 3.1 per cent growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa.

Though a step down from the 7.4 per cent growth in 2022, and a modest downgrade of 0.7 per cent from the projection in October of a growth rate of 4.2 per cent this year, the UAE’s economic activity remains firmly buoyant. Its growth is forecast to rise again to 3.9 per cent in 2024.

The minor slowdown in the UAE’s economic growth is primarily due to Opec+ cutting oil production quotas, which is reversing some of the past year’s increases in oil production across the region. However, despite the cuts and the weakening of oil prices, the UAE’s oil sector revenues are expected to remain healthy, maintaining a government budget surplus of approximately 3.7 per cent of GDP this year.

Inflationary pressures have also eased since the peak of last year. Disinflation is expected to continue in the coming months, reaching 2.1 per cent this year, down from 4.8 per cent in 2022.

In light of such considerations, the Central Bank of the UAE has also put out a more optimistic projection of a sustained GDP growth rate of 3.9 per cent in 2023. 

More positive still is Issam Abu Suleiman, regional director for the GCC at the World Bank, who has forecast that the UAE economy will continue to grow by 4.1 per cent despite the challenging global economic conditions.

More limited projections also exist, including a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and Oxford Economics that estimates that the growth will slow to 3.2 per cent in 2023, as weaker oil growth weighs on the more buoyant 3.9 per cent growth in the non-oil sector.

Positive sentiment

For businesses on the ground, the projection of close to 4 per cent non-oil growth remains cause for optimism. 

This has been reflected in the S&P UAE Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which rose yet higher from 54.3 in February to 55.9 in March (with a value over 50 indicating growth).

S&P’s report noted a pick-up in new order growth to a five-month high, as well as a rise in capacity pressures that has seen the fastest increase in employment since July 2016. The construction sector was particularly active in hiring amid a slew of new project launches led by off-plan real estate schemes.

The UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas

The UAE’s rebounding real estate market is more generally a key driver of the country’s sustained non-oil growth. House prices are on the rise in Abu Dhabi and property sales in Dubai have hit decade highs in recent months. 

Tourism is also recovering, with Dubai regaining its spot as one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs. International visitors are forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2023.

Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index ranked the UAE second in the world in terms of consumer perceptions of the strength of the economy, with 63 per cent of respondents believing it to have a strong economy. Of those polled, 81 per cent also reported being comfortable with investing in the future and 86 per cent expecting the local economy to be stronger in the next six months.

Ratings agency Moody’s has also reaffirmed the UAE’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing exceptionally low credit risk with its well-balanced budget targets and limited federal spending requirements. 

The introduction of corporate income tax, effective 1 June 2023, will result in further government revenue growth starting from 2025.

Moody’s also pointed to the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification. The country’s progress to date in this area remains well ahead of its GCC peers in terms of the expansion of its non-hydrocarbons revenue, private sector development and overall international attractiveness to foreign businesses and talent.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, the UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas. To achieve this, it needs an average of 7 per cent GDP growth a year, which it hopes to achieve by forging trade agreements and investing in global growth sectors such as green hydrogen.

The UAE’s foreign trade rose by 17 per cent year-on-year to reach AED2.2tn ($599.1bn) in 2022. In the decades ahead, the country aims to attract AED550bn in foreign direct investment by 2031 and AED1tn by 2051.

Abdullah bin Touq al-Marri, the UAE’s minister of economy, has noted that the UAE’s active business environment, which is supported by both national and foreign private sectors and an attractive labour market for international talent, has contributed to the growth of the economy.

By 2030, the government aims to increase the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to 1 million and raise the contribution of SMEs to the country’s non-oil GDP to 63.5 per cent.

In January this year, Dubai also launched its D33 economic agenda, which aims to grow the emirate’s economy to AED32tn by 2033 through a combination of transformative projects and a doubling of foreign trade to AED25.6tn by expanding trade links with Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

This month's special report on the UAE includes: 

> GOVERNMENT: Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> ECONOMY: UAE economy steers clear of global woes

> BANKING: UAE lenders chart a route to growth

> UPSTREAM: Strategic Adnoc projects register notable progress

> DOWNSTREAM: Gas takes centre stage in Adnoc downstream expansion

> POWER: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

> WATER: UAE begins massive reverse osmosis buildup

> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction needs major project launches

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10761289/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Construction advances on Riyadh King Salman airport

    19 May 2026

    King Salman International Airport (KSIA) is advancing airside infrastructure works under its long-term expansion programme in Riyadh, including the delivery of a third runway and new private aviation facilities.

    Construction activity on the central runway programme is progressing across several operational zones, with works covering excavation, grading, site preparation and taxiway-enabling infrastructure to support upcoming phases.

    The third runway is intended to increase airfield capacity and cater to the airport’s future operational requirements.

    In a separate development, KSIA has completed initial landside works for the private aviation apron, marking a milestone in the rollout of its executive aviation infrastructure.

    The completed scope includes pavement markings, waterproofing systems, firefighting infrastructure chambers and final operational inspections to support readiness for the next stages.

    KSIA has also secured General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) approval for phase one airside works, which includes the planned connection of Taxiway Alpha to the private aviation facilities, strengthening operational integration between executive aviation assets and airfield movement areas.

    The packages form part of the wider KSIA masterplan, which covers about 57 square kilometres and supports Saudi Arabia’s objective of positioning Riyadh as a global aviation and logistics hub.

    The airport aims to accommodate up to 100 million passengers by 2030.

    Saudi Arabia plans to invest $100bn in its aviation sector. The Saudi Aviation Strategy, announced by GACA, aims to triple annual passenger traffic to 330 million travellers by 2030. It also targets air cargo growth to 4.5 million tonnes and an increase in total air connections to more than 250 destinations.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16906496/main.jpeg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Aldar launches Al-Ghadeer Gardens project

    19 May 2026

    Abu Dhabi-based real estate developer Aldar Properties has launched the Al-Ghadeer Gardens project, located on the Abu Dhabi-Dubai border.

    The new residential development will feature 437 villas and townhouses, offering two-, three- and four-bedroom homes.

    Al-Ghadeer Gardens will include more than 30,000 square metres of landscaped open space, supporting a pedestrian-friendly layout and outdoor-focused living.

    As part of its sustainability and wellbeing approach, the project is targeting Estidama Pearl 2 and Fitwel 2-star certifications.

    Earlier this month, Aldar announced its Q1 financial results, reporting a 20% year-on-year increase in net profit after tax to AED2.3bn ($626m).

    Aldar Development recorded a 14% year-on-year rise in revenue to $1.7bn, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) increased 23% to $599m.

    UAE revenue backlog rose to $17bn at the end of March from $16.6bn at the end of December, with an average duration of 29 months.

    The group attributed its performance to revenue from its development backlog and steady income from its investment properties.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16906154/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq trucks oil from the south to Kurdish pipeline

    19 May 2026

     

    Iraq is trucking crude from Basra to the north of the country to be exported via the Iraq-Turkiye Pipeline (ITP), according to industry sources.

    The oil is being loaded into trucks at fields in Basra before being driven to the north, where it is injected into the pipeline network at Khurmala Dome, in the northern section of the Kirkuk field.

    Once it has entered the network at Khurmala Dome, it is transported to the main ITP export pipeline and eventually to the port of Ceyhan in Turkiye, where it can be loaded onto ships.

    The volumes of crude being transported using trucks have surged in Iraq since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, starting a regional conflict that has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    One source said: “Most of the crude that is being trucked out of Iraqi oil fields at the moment is going to Syria, but some is being trucked to the north where it is being funnelled through the pipeline.”

    Even with the additional volumes being trucked from the south, Iraq is struggling to boost exports using the ITP.

    At the end of March, Amer Khalil, the director-general of Iraq’s state-run North Oil Company, said that Iraq was exporting 200,000 barrels a day (b/d) through the ITP.

    At the time, he said that the pipeline, which runs from Kirkuk in Iraqi Kurdistan to the port of Ceyhan in Turkiye, was expected to start transporting 300,000 b/d “in the near future”.

    As of early May, the pipeline was still exporting about 200,000 b/d, despite having a nameplate capacity of 1.4 million b/d.

    One of the factors said to be stopping increased volumes from being shipped through the pipeline is that several key oil fields in northern Iraq evacuated staff and stopped production after the US and Israel started their war with Iran.

    Another factor is that Iraq has not invested in domestic pipeline infrastructure to pipe production from Basra to Kurdistan, where it could be exported via the Kurdish ITP route.

    READ THE MAY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Global energy sector forced to recalibrate; Conflict hits debt issuance and listings activity; UAE’s non-oil sector faces unclear recovery period amid disruption.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the May 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16902345/main1824.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwaiti oil services company secures credit facility

    19 May 2026

    The Kuwaiti drilling and oilfield services provider Action Energy Company (AEC) has secured a new credit facility and renewed and expanded an existing facility in order to support the company’s rig fleet expansion.

    The new facility and the expansion were obtained from two Kuwaiti banks and had a combined value of KD40.9m ($132.8m).

    In its statement, AEC said that the facilities support the financing and deployment of new rigs linked to contract awards previously announced with the state-owned upstream operator Kuwait Oil Company (KOC).

    The company added: “They further reinforce AEC’s financing structure and strengthen its ability to execute its contracted fleet expansion plan through 2026 and beyond, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation.”

    The new credit facility was obtained from Kuwait International Bank (KIB).

    It is worth KD7.3m ($23.7m) and will finance two new 750-horsepower (HP) rigs.

    The renewal and expansion of the existing facility is worth KD33.6m ($109.1m) and was obtained from Commercial Bank of Kuwait (CBK) to finance four new 1,500 HP rigs and one 1,000 HP rig, in addition to the renewal of the existing facilities.

    AEC announced its financial and operational performance for the first quarter earlier this month.

    The company reported a net profit of KD2.2m ($7.1m).

    The company’s revenue grew by 69.2% year-on-year, primarily driven by the expansion of the operating rig fleet from 13 rigs in the first quarter of 2025 to 20 rigs in the first quarter of 2026, including the full-quarter contribution of 10 new rigs deployed during 2025.

    The company is benefitting from a substantial multi-year contracted backlog with KOC.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16902234/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Emirates awards $5bn engineering complex deal

    18 May 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Emirates Airline has awarded a AED19bn ($5bn) contract to build one of the world's largest engineering complexes in Dubai South.

    The contract was awarded to Beijing-headquartered China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC).

    CRCC is being supported by French firm Artelia, as the project consultant.

    The complex will cover over 1 million square metres (sq m).

    It will comprise 77,000 sq m of dedicated workshop space for maintenance and repairs, 380,000 sq m of storage and logistics capacity, a 50,000 sq m administrative building for Emirates Engineering and 15,000 sq m of training facilities.

    It will be the world's only complex with a capacity to service 28 wide-body aircraft simultaneously.

    The airline officially broke ground on the project on 18 May. 

    The groundbreaking ceremony was attended by Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, chairman and CEO of Emirates Group; Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airline; Khalifa Al-Zaffin, executive chairman of Dubai Aviation City Corporation and Dubai South; and Dai Hegen, chairman of CRCC.

    The facility will enable large-scale retrofits, cabin redesigns and structural modifications to be performed in-house, thereby reducing turnaround times.

    The engineering complex is scheduled for completion in 2030 and will be located at Al-Maktoum International airport.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16895218/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal