UAE economy steers clear of global woes

24 April 2023

Related reads on the UAE:

Two billion riders use Dubai Metro

Surge in tourists boosts Dubai hospitality

Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

UAE calls for reform of international financial institutions

UAE president appoints son as Abu Dhabi crown prince

UAE and Israel sign customs cooperation deal

> UAE moves ahead with digital currency


 

The UAE economy is expected to maintain a course of robust economic growth in 2023, avoiding the effects of the creeping global economic slowdown.

The Washington-based IMF projects a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the country in 2023 – a rate of expansion well clear of the 2.8 per cent global average amid what has become a worldwide slowdown. The forecast is also ahead of the projected 3.1 per cent growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa.

Though a step down from the 7.4 per cent growth in 2022, and a modest downgrade of 0.7 per cent from the projection in October of a growth rate of 4.2 per cent this year, the UAE’s economic activity remains firmly buoyant. Its growth is forecast to rise again to 3.9 per cent in 2024.

The minor slowdown in the UAE’s economic growth is primarily due to Opec+ cutting oil production quotas, which is reversing some of the past year’s increases in oil production across the region. However, despite the cuts and the weakening of oil prices, the UAE’s oil sector revenues are expected to remain healthy, maintaining a government budget surplus of approximately 3.7 per cent of GDP this year.

Inflationary pressures have also eased since the peak of last year. Disinflation is expected to continue in the coming months, reaching 2.1 per cent this year, down from 4.8 per cent in 2022.

In light of such considerations, the Central Bank of the UAE has also put out a more optimistic projection of a sustained GDP growth rate of 3.9 per cent in 2023. 

More positive still is Issam Abu Suleiman, regional director for the GCC at the World Bank, who has forecast that the UAE economy will continue to grow by 4.1 per cent despite the challenging global economic conditions.

More limited projections also exist, including a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and Oxford Economics that estimates that the growth will slow to 3.2 per cent in 2023, as weaker oil growth weighs on the more buoyant 3.9 per cent growth in the non-oil sector.

Positive sentiment

For businesses on the ground, the projection of close to 4 per cent non-oil growth remains cause for optimism. 

This has been reflected in the S&P UAE Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which rose yet higher from 54.3 in February to 55.9 in March (with a value over 50 indicating growth).

S&P’s report noted a pick-up in new order growth to a five-month high, as well as a rise in capacity pressures that has seen the fastest increase in employment since July 2016. The construction sector was particularly active in hiring amid a slew of new project launches led by off-plan real estate schemes.

The UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas

The UAE’s rebounding real estate market is more generally a key driver of the country’s sustained non-oil growth. House prices are on the rise in Abu Dhabi and property sales in Dubai have hit decade highs in recent months. 

Tourism is also recovering, with Dubai regaining its spot as one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs. International visitors are forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2023.

Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index ranked the UAE second in the world in terms of consumer perceptions of the strength of the economy, with 63 per cent of respondents believing it to have a strong economy. Of those polled, 81 per cent also reported being comfortable with investing in the future and 86 per cent expecting the local economy to be stronger in the next six months.

Ratings agency Moody’s has also reaffirmed the UAE’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing exceptionally low credit risk with its well-balanced budget targets and limited federal spending requirements. 

The introduction of corporate income tax, effective 1 June 2023, will result in further government revenue growth starting from 2025.

Moody’s also pointed to the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification. The country’s progress to date in this area remains well ahead of its GCC peers in terms of the expansion of its non-hydrocarbons revenue, private sector development and overall international attractiveness to foreign businesses and talent.

Future outlook

Looking ahead, the UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas. To achieve this, it needs an average of 7 per cent GDP growth a year, which it hopes to achieve by forging trade agreements and investing in global growth sectors such as green hydrogen.

The UAE’s foreign trade rose by 17 per cent year-on-year to reach AED2.2tn ($599.1bn) in 2022. In the decades ahead, the country aims to attract AED550bn in foreign direct investment by 2031 and AED1tn by 2051.

Abdullah bin Touq al-Marri, the UAE’s minister of economy, has noted that the UAE’s active business environment, which is supported by both national and foreign private sectors and an attractive labour market for international talent, has contributed to the growth of the economy.

By 2030, the government aims to increase the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to 1 million and raise the contribution of SMEs to the country’s non-oil GDP to 63.5 per cent.

In January this year, Dubai also launched its D33 economic agenda, which aims to grow the emirate’s economy to AED32tn by 2033 through a combination of transformative projects and a doubling of foreign trade to AED25.6tn by expanding trade links with Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.


This month's special report on the UAE includes: 

> GOVERNMENT: Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home

> ECONOMY: UAE economy steers clear of global woes

> BANKING: UAE lenders chart a route to growth

> UPSTREAM: Strategic Adnoc projects register notable progress

> DOWNSTREAM: Gas takes centre stage in Adnoc downstream expansion

> POWER: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28

> WATER: UAE begins massive reverse osmosis buildup

> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction needs major project launches

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/10761289/main.gif
John Bambridge
Related Articles
  • Iraq readies tender for additional Al-Faw port piers

    6 July 2026

    Iraq is preparing to issue a tender inviting international contractors to bid for a contract to build the remaining piers at Al-Faw Grand Port in Basra.

    According to local media reports, construction work on the project's first phase is expected to be completed by the end of this year.

    This will be followed by port operations, for which the client, state-owned General Company for Ports of Iraq, shortlisted three out of the initial 11 international companies that were invited to bid, as MEED reported last year.

    At the time, the shortlisted companies included:

    • China Merchants Port Group (China)
    • Evergreen (Taiwan)
    • CMA CGM (France)
    • Mediterranean Shipping Company (Switzerland)
    • Adani Group (India)
    • International Container Terminal Services (Philippines)
    • Cosco (China) 
    • ABM Global Shipping (UAE)
    • AD Ports (UAE)

    In April last year, Iraq’s Shafaq News Agency reported that the country was in talks with US-based KBR to assist in operating the Al-Faw port.

    KBR was expected to provide training in port operations and management to Iraqi personnel, along with related services.

    The first phase of the project is scheduled for completion by the end of this year, while the second phase is expected to be completed by 2029.

    The first phase of the project cost approximately $5bn, including $2.5bn for its five main piers, which were constructed by South Korea’s Daewoo Engineering & Construction.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17562198/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Frontrunner emerges for Bahrain’s Hidd IWP

    6 July 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia's Acwa has emerged as the frontrunner for a contract to develop and operate Bahrain’s Al-Hidd independent water project (IWP) following the disqualification of the only other bidder for the plant, a source has told MEED.

    The seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) plant is the state's first IWP project. It is expected to have a production capacity of about 60 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD), equivalent to roughly 272,000 cubic metres a day of potable water.

    Acwa offered to develop the project at a levelised cost of water of BD0.276 ($0.73) a cubic metre, according to details published on Bahrain’s Tender Board on 2 July.

    GS Inima (South Korea/Spain) was the only other bidder for the project.

    Bids for the project had been submitted earlier this year.

    The source added that Acwa's financial bid is now under evaluation and has yet to be selected as the preferred bidder. This will only be determined "subject to compliance with the [request for proposal] requirements".

    Nine companies and consortiums had previously been shortlisted following the completion of the prequalification process last August.

    The facility will be developed on a brownfield site and is expected to be fully operational by 2029. It will be developed using a build, own and operate (BOO) model for 20-25 years and aims to help expand Bahrain’s water infrastructure to meet projected demand based on its 2030 masterplan.

    This includes doubling the state's installed power generation capacity to over 10GW by 2030, according to UK data analytics firm GlobalData.

    Sitra IWPP

    Bahrain's 1.2GW Sitra independent water and power plant (IWPP) project is also advancing, with two bids having been submitted for the plant in June.

    The offers were made by Acwa and Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa). The technical element of the bid was opened on 18 June.

    The Sitra IWPP is a combined-cycle gas turbine plant and is expected to have a production capacity of about 1,200MW of electricity. The project’s SWRO desalination facility will have a production capacity of 30 MIGD of potable water.

    The plant is Bahrain’s fourth IWPP, replacing the previously planned Al-Dur 3. The Sitra IWPP is expected to be fully operational by the second quarter of 2029.

    The Bahraini Electricity & Water Authority’s transaction advisory team for the two BOO projects comprises KPMG Fakhro as the financial consultant and Trowers & Hamlins as the legal consultant.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17562089/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Chinese contractor completes 70% of Iraq oil project

    6 July 2026

     

    The project to develop new crude oil processing facilities at Iraq’s Rumaila field is 70% complete, according to industry sources.

    The project scope for the planned plant in Mishrif Qurainat includes developing two new oil trains, each with a capacity of 120,000 barrels a day (b/d).

    When it was originally announced, the planned plant in Mishrif Qurainat was the first new crude oil processing facility project at the oil field in 10 years.

    In the fourth quarter of 2022, China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation signed a contract for the design, procurement, construction and testing of the crude oil processing facilities.

    The contract was valued at about $386m, and construction was expected to take three years to complete.

    Since 2022, the project has seen significant delays and the date for completion is currently uncertain, according to industry sources, as bringing the new crude processing facility online is no longer a priority for the client.

    One source said: “Work is continuing on this project at a slow pace because the client is not prioritising commissioning the oil trains.

    “The companies that form the joint venture, which operates the Rumaila field, are dealing with a range of other issues right now as a result of the regional war and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.”

    Rumaila is operated by Rumaila Operating Organisation (ROO).

    ROO is a joint venture formed by state-owned Basra Oil Company; Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organisation (Somo); and Basra Energy Company, a joint venture owned by UK-based oil company BP and PetroChina.

    PetroChina is the listed arm of state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation.

    Oil exports from Iraq have dropped steeply since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, leading to a regional conflict.

    The conflict has caused significant disruption to Iraq’s oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz.

    This has had a knock-on impact for production in the country, where output from many major oil fields has had to stop or has been significantly lowered.

    One source said: “At the moment, Basra Oil Company is prioritising restoring production, where it is possible, from assets that have seen reductions in output.

    “They are using a lot of resources just to keep existing facilities online and restarting facilities that have stopped due to the crisis.

    “Commissioning a brand new project, like the Mishrif Qurainat facilities, is unlikely to be a priority until Iraq’s oil sector returns to a situation that is more like business as usual prior to the conflict with Iran.”

    Rumaila is the ‎second-largest producing field in the world, and it is estimated to have about 17 billion barrels of ‎recoverable oil remaining.‎

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17561830/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Riyadh awards Thumama Road eastern section contract

    6 July 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    The Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has awarded a contract for the eastern section of the Thumamah Road development project in Riyadh.

    Yuksel Saudi, the local subsidiary of Turkish construction firm Yuksel Holding, won the contract.

    The mobilisation works are expected to begin by mid-July and the project is expected to be completed by 2028.

    The project covers about 8 kilometres (km) and includes three bridges and three tunnels. It is designed to handle up to 200,000 vehicles a day.

    The RCRC is investing in upgrading the road networks in the capital. Earlier in July, it awarded another contract to local firm Sapac for the Jeddah Road development project.

    Covering 29km, the scheme includes 14 bridges and five lanes.

    Designed to handle up to 353,000 vehicles a day, the road is expected to be completed by 2028, with mobilisation works already under way.

    The projects form part of the third package of the RCRC’s Riyadh Main and Ring Road Axes Development Programme, which was announced in January.

    The other schemes include:

    • Taif Road development project: The project stretches 15km and includes four bridges, each with four lanes. It also features two tunnels. It will have a capacity of up to 200,000 vehicles a day and will enhance connectivity between Riyadh’s southern and western districts and the city centre.
    • Thumamah Road development project: The eastern section of the project will cover 8km and include three bridges and three tunnels, linking the northern and eastern parts of Riyadh. The project will have a daily capacity of up to 200,000 vehicles.
    • King Abdulaziz Road development project: The northern section of the project stretches 4.7km and will include four bridges, four lanes and one tunnel, with a capacity of up to 450,000 vehicles a day.
    • Othman Bin Affan Road development project: The northern section will cover 4.3km and include seven bridges and other related upgrades to enhance traffic flow in northern Riyadh. The project will have a daily capacity of up to 500,000 vehicles.
    • Second phase of engineering enhancements for congested areas: This project targets eight locations in the city’s road network, where advanced engineering solutions will be applied to reduce congestion and improve intersection performance, increasing traffic capacity by 40%-60%.

    The contract for the Thumamah Road development project is the latest of several high-profile deals awarded by the RCRC recently. In May, it awarded an estimated SR5bn ($1.3bn) contract to construct the Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah Road project in Riyadh.

    That contract went to a joint venture of Riyadh-based Al-Rashid Trading & Contracting Company and Turkiye’s IC Ictas.

    Stretching 12km, the project runs from Khurais Road to Al-Thumama Road and is a key component of the Second Eastern Ring Road scheme.

    Works include five interchanges: Prince Bandar, King Abdullah, Imam Abdullah, Dammam Road and Al-Thumama.

    In 2021, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud said the population of Riyadh would double to 15-20 million people by 2030. 

    He directed government entities to work closely with the RCRC to prepare the city’s development strategy.

    As well as several road development projects in the capital, the RCRC’s major projects include Riyadh Metro, Riyadh Art, Sports Boulevard, King Salman International Park and Green Riyadh.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17561818/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • PIF’s 2025 results back 2026-30 strategy shift

    3 July 2026

    Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has published its audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025, the first full set of annual results to follow the board’s approval of the fund’s 2026-30 strategy.

    The results show a sharp improvement in profitability last year even as leverage rose and volatility in its listed equity holdings widened. The performance helps explain the strategic shift towards capital discipline and focus on private sector partnerships set out in April.

    In April, PIF’s board, chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Al-Saud, approved a new five-year strategy structured around three portfolios, the Vision Portfolio, the Strategic Portfolio and the Financial Portfolio, and organised around six domestic ecosystems: tourism, travel and entertainment; urban development and liveability; advanced manufacturing and innovation; industrials and logistics; clean energy, water and renewables infrastructure; and Neom as a standalone ecosystem.

    Project reprioritisation

    The strategy followed a period of reprioritisation across PIF’s gigaproject portfolio and set out a renewed emphasis on private capital, with PIF stating it would “further enable the role of the private sector as an effective partner for sustainable economic development”.

    PIF’s consolidated profit for 2025 rose to SR65.2bn ($17.4bn) in 2025, up 152% from SR25.8bn in 2024. The increase was driven by operating profit more than doubling, to SR78bn from SR34.7bn, as revenue growth outpaced cost of revenue and general and administrative expenses moderated relative to the prior year. Profit attributable to the owner of the fund rose to SR46.4bn, up from just SR1bn in 2024, a swing that accounts for most of the year-on-year improvement.

    Total revenue, comprising SR312bn of operating revenue and SR137.9bn of income from investment activities, rose 8.8% to SR449.9bn. Core operating revenue alone was up 9.9%, from SR284bn in 2024.

    Segment mix                                                     

    The segment breakdown shows where that growth came from, and it lines up closely with the six ecosystems named in the 2026-30 strategy. Banking and financial services remained the largest single revenue line at SR85.3bn, followed by telecommunications at SR76.8bn ($20.5bn), which was down slightly on 2024. Mining revenue rose 19.3% to SR38.8bn, consistent with the strategy’s focus on industrials and logistics, while revenue from electronic gaming and related services held broadly flat at SR15.6bn, an area PIF governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan specifically cited as a sector for strategic investment alongside artificial intelligence and renewable energy. Agricultural and livestock revenue nearly tripled, to SR7.6bn from SR2.5bn, and revenue from events operations rose to SR7.6bn from SR6bn, both pointing to the diversification into domestic ecosystems the strategy describes. Real estate operations revenue and revenue from advanced electronics and aerospace both declined slightly year-on-year.

    Total assets grew 5.1% to SR4.54tn from SR4.32tn, continuing the expansion PIF has reported since 2015, when the strategy document put assets under management at $150bn, against more than $900bn today. The two figures are not directly comparable, since the IFRS consolidated balance sheet captures the full assets of consolidated subsidiaries such as the fund’s banking, telecommunications and mining operations, while PIF’s publicly cited assets-under-management figure uses a different valuation methodology, but both point to the same order of scale.

    Total equity, by contrast, fell 2% to SR2.63tn ($701bn) from SR2.68tn, despite the sharp rise in reported profit. The gap is explained by other comprehensive income, which swung to a loss of SR113.3bn for the year, driven primarily by a SR112.8bn fair-value loss on equity instruments measured at fair value through other comprehensive income. In other words, unrealised mark-to-market losses on part of PIF’s listed equity portfolio outweighed the operating profit improvement, leaving total comprehensive income attributable to the owner of the fund at a loss of SR64.7bn for the year, though this was narrower than the SR154.4bn loss recorded in 2024.

    Total liabilities rose 16.7%, to SR1.91tn from SR1.64tn, driven mainly by loans and borrowings, which climbed 27.2% to SR725.3bn from SR570.4bn. Property, plant and equipment grew 6.3%, to SR429.6bn, reflecting continued capital spending across PIF’s real estate and gigaproject portfolio, including the stadium, hospitality and urban development programmes.

    Strategy context

    The scale of PIF’s investment activity in the run-up to 2025 is set out in the April strategy announcement rather than the financial statements themselves. Between 2021 and 2025, PIF says it invested more than $199bn in new projects in Saudi Arabia, contributed $243bn to real non-oil GDP and spent more than $157bn with the local private sector, alongside growing assets under management six-fold and delivering an annualised total shareholder return of more than 7% since 2017. Read against the 2025 results, the rise in mining, gaming, agricultural and events revenue is an early indication that this domestic ecosystem investment is beginning to show up in operating performance, even as the wider balance sheet shows the cost of that expansion in higher borrowing and greater sensitivity to listed equity markets.

    The results reinforce a theme demonstrated by PIF’s ongoing award of construction contracts for Expo 2030, the 2034 Fifa World Cup and other gigaprojects in the kingdom. Growth is increasingly funded through a combination of retained earnings, debt and, with the new strategy, private co-investment, rather than balance-sheet expansion alone. The explicit retention of Neom as a named ecosystem in the 2026-30 strategy, despite the cancellation of several Trojena contracts and the loss of the Asian Winter Games over the past year, suggests PIF intends to continue funding the project, but within a more disciplined framework most likely centred on industrial development around the Port of Neom, which is also known as Oxagon.

    The 2025 results and the 2026-30 strategy point to a fund entering a new phase: profit generation has improved markedly, but leverage has grown and comprehensive income remains exposed to swings in listed markets, both factors consistent with a strategy that emphasises capital efficiency, institutional excellence and a larger role for private capital rather than a further scaling-up of gigaproject spending on PIF’s own balance sheet.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17540500/main.gif
    Colin Foreman