UAE economy steers clear of global woes
24 April 2023
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The UAE economy is expected to maintain a course of robust economic growth in 2023, avoiding the effects of the creeping global economic slowdown.
The Washington-based IMF projects a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the country in 2023 – a rate of expansion well clear of the 2.8 per cent global average amid what has become a worldwide slowdown. The forecast is also ahead of the projected 3.1 per cent growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa.
Though a step down from the 7.4 per cent growth in 2022, and a modest downgrade of 0.7 per cent from the projection in October of a growth rate of 4.2 per cent this year, the UAE’s economic activity remains firmly buoyant. Its growth is forecast to rise again to 3.9 per cent in 2024.
The minor slowdown in the UAE’s economic growth is primarily due to Opec+ cutting oil production quotas, which is reversing some of the past year’s increases in oil production across the region. However, despite the cuts and the weakening of oil prices, the UAE’s oil sector revenues are expected to remain healthy, maintaining a government budget surplus of approximately 3.7 per cent of GDP this year.
Inflationary pressures have also eased since the peak of last year. Disinflation is expected to continue in the coming months, reaching 2.1 per cent this year, down from 4.8 per cent in 2022.
In light of such considerations, the Central Bank of the UAE has also put out a more optimistic projection of a sustained GDP growth rate of 3.9 per cent in 2023.
More positive still is Issam Abu Suleiman, regional director for the GCC at the World Bank, who has forecast that the UAE economy will continue to grow by 4.1 per cent despite the challenging global economic conditions.
More limited projections also exist, including a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England & Wales and Oxford Economics that estimates that the growth will slow to 3.2 per cent in 2023, as weaker oil growth weighs on the more buoyant 3.9 per cent growth in the non-oil sector.

Positive sentiment
For businesses on the ground, the projection of close to 4 per cent non-oil growth remains cause for optimism.
This has been reflected in the S&P UAE Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which rose yet higher from 54.3 in February to 55.9 in March (with a value over 50 indicating growth).
S&P’s report noted a pick-up in new order growth to a five-month high, as well as a rise in capacity pressures that has seen the fastest increase in employment since July 2016. The construction sector was particularly active in hiring amid a slew of new project launches led by off-plan real estate schemes.
The UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas
The UAE’s rebounding real estate market is more generally a key driver of the country’s sustained non-oil growth. House prices are on the rise in Abu Dhabi and property sales in Dubai have hit decade highs in recent months.
Tourism is also recovering, with Dubai regaining its spot as one of the world’s busiest aviation hubs. International visitors are forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2023.
Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index ranked the UAE second in the world in terms of consumer perceptions of the strength of the economy, with 63 per cent of respondents believing it to have a strong economy. Of those polled, 81 per cent also reported being comfortable with investing in the future and 86 per cent expecting the local economy to be stronger in the next six months.
Ratings agency Moody’s has also reaffirmed the UAE’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings at Aa2 with a stable outlook, citing exceptionally low credit risk with its well-balanced budget targets and limited federal spending requirements.
The introduction of corporate income tax, effective 1 June 2023, will result in further government revenue growth starting from 2025.
Moody’s also pointed to the UAE’s ongoing economic diversification. The country’s progress to date in this area remains well ahead of its GCC peers in terms of the expansion of its non-hydrocarbons revenue, private sector development and overall international attractiveness to foreign businesses and talent.
Future outlook
Looking ahead, the UAE aims to double the size of its economy by 2031 as it continues to diversify away from oil and gas. To achieve this, it needs an average of 7 per cent GDP growth a year, which it hopes to achieve by forging trade agreements and investing in global growth sectors such as green hydrogen.
The UAE’s foreign trade rose by 17 per cent year-on-year to reach AED2.2tn ($599.1bn) in 2022. In the decades ahead, the country aims to attract AED550bn in foreign direct investment by 2031 and AED1tn by 2051.
Abdullah bin Touq al-Marri, the UAE’s minister of economy, has noted that the UAE’s active business environment, which is supported by both national and foreign private sectors and an attractive labour market for international talent, has contributed to the growth of the economy.
By 2030, the government aims to increase the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to 1 million and raise the contribution of SMEs to the country’s non-oil GDP to 63.5 per cent.
In January this year, Dubai also launched its D33 economic agenda, which aims to grow the emirate’s economy to AED32tn by 2033 through a combination of transformative projects and a doubling of foreign trade to AED25.6tn by expanding trade links with Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.
This month's special report on the UAE includes:
> GOVERNMENT: Abu Dhabi strengthens its position at home
> ECONOMY: UAE economy steers clear of global woes
> BANKING: UAE lenders chart a route to growth
> UPSTREAM: Strategic Adnoc projects register notable progress
> DOWNSTREAM: Gas takes centre stage in Adnoc downstream expansion
> POWER: UAE power sector shapes up ahead of Cop28
> WATER: UAE begins massive reverse osmosis buildup
> CONSTRUCTION: Dubai construction needs major project launches
Exclusive from Meed
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Chinese contractor wins Morocco solar plant deal10 August 2026
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Shamal picks Dutco for Dubai Zoo site homes10 August 2026
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WEBINAR: Mena Oil & Gas Projects Market 2026-2710 August 2026
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Spanish firm renews Yanbu desalination O&M contract10 August 2026
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Kuwait shows tentative signs of economic development7 August 2026
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Kuwait shows tentative signs of economic development7 August 2026

Kuwait was one of the chief targets of Iranian drone and missile strikes during July, but against the backdrop of regional instability, the Kuwaiti authorities also managed to conclude a series of significant deals during the month. That suggests that, if the US and Iran can come to some sort of agreement to end their conflict, there is the potential for the Kuwaiti economy to diversify and expand in a way that it has, until now, struggled to do.
The sense of nascent progress was bolstered in early August, when a survey of local businesses found that the non-oil sector had returned to growth at the start of the third quarter, having been in a slump since the start of the war. However, the risk of renewed fighting means most observers remain deeply cautious about whether the latest purchasing managers index (PMI) is just a blip, or the start of a longer trend.
Debt deals
The first big deal came on 22 July, when the government sold $6bn-worth of bonds. It was the second debt issuance by the authorities since a long-awaited public debt law was passed by decree last year. The latest package included debt with tenors of three, five and 10 years. In a sign of the turbulent geopolitical environment, the bonds were priced at 70-85 basis points over US Treasuries. Notably higher than the 40-50 basis point spread the government achieved in its bond sale late last year.
The second significant development came just a few days later, with Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) unveiling a $16bn deal with international investors Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR for its crude oil pipeline network. In a similar structure to deals struck in the past by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and Saudi Aramco, KOC will lease the country’s domestic and export pipelines to a new joint venture it has set up with the trio of international partners. The Kuwaiti energy company will then lease back the pipelines on an exclusive basis, in return for a volume-based tariff.
KOC will have a 51% stake in the joint venture and – in line with Kuwaiti law – will retain full ownership and operational control of the 320-kilometre network.
It was the largest energy infrastructure deal ever agreed in Kuwait and, according to KOC, the largest foreign direct investment made in the country. The $7.85bn that the three international partners will invest upfront will be used to support KOC parent company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s wider capital expenditure plans.
The fact that the country was able to secure the deal at a time when its only existing export route – through the Strait of Hormuz – has been effectively closed off is an important vote of confidence by investors in the country’s longer-term prospects. According to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, Kuwait’s crude export volumes had fallen from 1.2 million barrels a day before the year to zero in April.
It was the largest energy infrastructure deal ever agreed in Kuwait and, according to KOC, the largest foreign direct investment made in the country
UK-based Oxford Economics noted that the bond issue and the pipeline deal came at a time when Kuwait “faces elevated fiscal funding needs and remains one of the GCC’s most exposed oil exporters to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz given its limited alternative export infrastructure”.
Blackstone said it also plans to open an office in Kuwait this year. There was a further show of investor interest in early August, when the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) reportedly agreed a $4.25bn, three-year loan from a group of 14 banks. The facility will be used for general corporate purposes, according to Bloomberg.
In a further notable development, Kuwait’s Ministry of Public Works also handed a contract in late July to China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) to build the country’s largest wastewater treatment plant. The North Kabd plant will have a capacity of up to 1 million cubic metres a day (cm/d). Kuwaiti water desalination plants have been hit on several occasions by Iranian drones during this year’s war, causing fires and other damage.
Policy reforms
On a smaller level, some notable reforms have been rolled out to try to shape the direction of the non-oil economy too. In late July, the Ministry of Commerce & Industry stopped issuing any more sole-trader or freelance business licences, while a review is carried out into the sector and official oversight is tightened.
The authorities went a step further on 2 August, when a decree was issued to stop businesses offering goods and services without the right sort of licence. Anyone found to be working without the required permit could now face a prison term of up to three years and a fine of up to KD100,000 ($323,000) – or a sum equivalent to the profits generated by the unlicensed activity, whichever is greater.
Some steps have been taken to ease restrictions in other areas. In early August, a change to the visa system was announced that will allow some foreign nationals to convert a visit visa into a regular residency permit in return for a fee of KD150. The measure proved immediately popular, but many applicants had failed to read the small print and, according to local media reports, several hundred were rejected. The scheme is primarily aimed at those seeking to bring their wives or children to Kuwait, as well as humanitarian cases and others with exceptional circumstances.
Economic recovery
The wider economy is showing tentative signs of improvement. The latest PMI survey delivered an unexpectedly strong result, showing that the non-oil private sector returned to growth in July for the first time since the war began.
S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the index, said the resumption of flights at Kuwait International airport had helped to support a rise in output and new orders – the first for five months. That in turn supported greater purchasing and hiring activity by local businesses and took the index up to 50.8 points – just above the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction.
Even so, S&P warned that market conditions remain “challenging” while local bank NBK Capital warned in early August that “it remains to be seen how much of this improvement [in the PMI] will be sustained … following the reescalation in US-Iran tensions in the past weeks”.
If the Kuwaiti economy is to make the most of its potential, the country needs the war between Iran and the US to come to a definitive end.
MEED’s September 2026 report on Kuwait also includes:
> BANKING: Necessity is the mother of invention for Kuwaiti lenders
> OIL & GAS: Regional war to have lasting impact on Kuwaiti oil sector
> CONSTRUCTION: Kuwait construction holds up despite regional strifehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/18199239/main.gif