meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy regains regional lead

29 May 2024

 

The UAE has edged ahead of Saudi Arabia again to take the lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index, which assesses the near-term economic health of regional markets, as a gap has opened up between the economic and fiscal performances of the two countries in 2024 to date.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered 2024 with similarly buoyant 4% real GDP growth projections from the Washington-based IMF, but have since diverged. In April, the IMF revised its growth forecast for the UAE to 3.5%, and the forecast for Saudi Arabia 2.6%. 

The World Bank has meanwhile maintained a more optimistic 3.9% real GDP growth projection for the UAE in 2024, but an even lower projection of 2.5% for Saudi Arabia.

The trade and fiscal balance performances of the two countries have also diverged. The UAE is forecast for a 7.8% of GDP current account surplus and 4.5% of GDP fiscal surplus, while Saudi Arabia’s current account surplus has narrowed to 0.5% of GDP, while its budget has slipped into a 2.8% deficit.

Oil price impact

Saudi Arabia’s reduction in its growth and slide into fiscal deficit have both partially been brought about by the impact of softer oil prices and Opec-led production cuts, which have naturally hit the more heavily oil-dependent Saudi economy to a greater extent than the more diversified UAE economy. The UAE Central Bank is forecasting a non-oil GDP growth rate of 4.7% for the country in both 2024 and 2025.

Together, the two countries remain comfortably in the lead at the top of the index, due in large part to the buoyancy of both of their projects markets. Contract award values in the past 12 months for both countries were double the long-term average, while new work outstripped completed work twofold in the UAE and fourfold in Saudi Arabia.

Wider market

Elsewhere in the GCC, Qatar and Oman have both seen their real GDP growth slip in 2024, to 2% and 1.2%, respectively – driven by slight weakness in both the hydrocarbons and non-hydrocarbons sectors. Both countries remain in fiscal surplus, however, and have stable projects markets, with work being tendered at or above the long-term average award values and above the rate of completion.

Kuwait is projected to see its GDP contract for the second year in a row as a weaker oil market and production cuts hit hard. Kuwait is the most heavily oil-dependent and least diversified country in the region, with 95% of exports and 90% of government revenue coming from the oil sector, making the country and its real GDP metric highly sensitive to fluctuations in the oil price – though it still has a fiscal surplus. At the same time, the country’s projects market also continues to underperform, with contract awards 40% below the long-term average and 25% below the rate of completion.

Algeria has meanwhile risen up the ranking and boasts a forecast of 3.8% real GDP growth in 2024 – the strongest in the region, according to the IMF. While it is still expected to remain deep in fiscal deficit, inflation is on a downward trend, and the projects market has above-average contract award activity.

Bahrain, despite a projected 3.6% growth rate in 2024, remains in concerning fiscal and debt positions. Its short-term risk rating was recently elevated to the second-highest level by insurance group Allianz. The Bahraini projects market is also in steep decline, with the value of contract awards in the last 12 months coming in at just over a third of the long-term average and at little more than half the level of project completions.

Morocco, Jordan and Egypt are all expected to experience moderate 2-3% real GDP growth rates this year, while continuing to struggle with persisting current account and fiscal deficits. All three countries also have elevated unemployment and government debt, as well as underperforming projects markets, with awards over the past 12 months at two-thirds or less of long-term historic averages.

Iraq is another country with high oil market dependence and oil price sensitivity and is forecast for just 1.4% real GDP growth this year. Short-term risk in the country is also in an elevated state amid political turbulence and weaknesses in the security situation that have seen repeated attacks by non-state actors on oil sector infrastructure. The projects market nevertheless remains nominally steady for now, with sustained award activity at the level of long-term averages and also at the rate of project completions.

Tunisia has sunk to the bottom of the index with a weakened 1.9% growth rate in 2024 and an even lower growth projection of 1.8% in 2025 as the country continues to be caught up in political chaos and an economic crisis. Short-term risk is high, as are the rates of unemployment and inflation. The projects sector is reasonably active, but contract awards remain below the long-term average.

ABOUT THE INDEX

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11824050/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Riyadh Expo sets November bid deadline for Souq construction

    29 October 2026

     

    Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), responsible for delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, has allowed contractors until 11 November to submit bids for a contract to deliver the Souq areas within the Expo site.

    The tender was floated on 30 July, with an initial submission deadline of 9 October.

    The Souq areas are divided into five distinct precincts, with a total development area of about 300,000 square metres (sq m).

    The scope includes the five precincts and their associated vertical elements, infrastructure and public realm works. 

    The precincts comprise:

    • Precinct 1 – The Icon: 41,417 sq m
    • Precinct 2 – Place & Planet: 62,306 sq m 
    • Precinct 3 – Culture of Wisdom: 67,112 sq m  
    • Precinct 4 – Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: 45,967 sq m  
    • Precinct 5 – Adaptation & Innovation: 82,358 sq m

    The package will interface with three public parks. It will also tie into the Natural Corridor, including bridges.

    The Souq areas will form a mixed-use destination at the centre of Expo 2030 Riyadh, connecting the site’s iconic and thematic assets.

    The development will include rented and partnership pavilions, alongside a range of food and beverage, retail and visitor-experience offerings.

    Site progress

    Construction activity at the Expo site is accelerating, with Riyadh moving to award its first major vertical contracts and advancing infrastructure works across the programme.

    Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City awarded a design-and-build contract to build a new metro station serving the Expo 2030 site.

    In April, ERC awarded two contracts to local firm Al-Yamama Company for the next phase of infrastructure works at the site.

    The scope covered the construction of road networks and infrastructure for water, sewage, electricity, telecommunications and electric vehicle charging.

    These awards followed ERC’s January award of an estimated SR1bn ($267m) contract for initial infrastructure works at the site to local firm Nesma & Partners.

    That scope covered about 50 kilometres of integrated infrastructure networks, including internal roads and essential utilities such as water, sewage, electrical and communications systems, and electric vehicle charging stations.

    The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event. Situated to the north of the Saudi capital, the site will be located near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to landmarks within Riyadh.

    The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched ERC – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20998514/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Iraq oilfield water scheme to hit milestone next year

    29 October 2026

     

    China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering (CPP) expects to start laying pipeline for Iraq’s Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) in Basra in mid- or late next year, according to industry sources.

    The project is behind schedule, partly because importing sections of pipeline is proving challenging due to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

    The project is being managed by state-owned Basra Oil Company (BOC), with Australia’s ILF acting as a project management consultant after completing the front-end engineering design (feed).

    Under current plans, the pipelines will be buried, which is expected to make them more secure than if they were installed on the surface.

    Phased development

    The client for the first phase of the CSSP is France’s TotalEnergies in partnership with QatarEnergy and BOC.

    The first phase is split into two packages currently under execution and will ultimately have the capacity to transport 5 million barrels a day (b/d) of water.

    The first package focuses on developing pipelines, and the second on developing a water treatment facility.

    CPP is executing the pipeline package contract.

    It signed a $2.5bn contract with BOC for the package in September last year.

    Also in September 2025, South Korea’s Hyundai announced that it had signed a contract worth 4.39tn won ($3.16bn) for the processing plant package.

    In September this year, MEED reported that early groundworks had started for both packages of the first phase of the CSSP.

    Phase one of the project is scheduled to start up in late 2028 or early 2029.

    Earlier this month, US-headquartered Exxon Mobil signed a memorandum of understanding related to the project’s second phase, which is expected to add 2.5 million b/d of water capacity.

    The CSSP will inject processed water into several of Iraq’s biggest oil fields. These include Rumaila, Zubair, West Qurna 1, West Qurna 2 and Majnoon. Water from the project will also be used in the Maysan and Dhi Qar fields.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20981033/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Dubai tenders Al-Awir sewerage and stormwater works

    29 October 2026

     

    Dubai Municipality has invited contractors to bid for a contract to build sewerage and stormwater infrastructure in New Al-Awir 1st.

    The project (DS317-C1) comprises about 95 kilometres of sewerage gravity network, excluding house connections, and about 105km of stormwater pipelines. The scope also includes house connection pipes, a stormwater pond and oil interceptors.

    According to tender documents seen by MEED, the tender was issued on 23 October, with a bid submission deadline of 12 November.

    The project comes amid wider residential and infrastructure development in Al-Awir 1. In January 2025, Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority (RTA) announced plans to build 16.5km of internal roads in the area, including a new entrance from Emirates Road.

    In February 2025, MEED exclusively reported that the RTA had selected a local firm to undertake the road construction works.

    The Mohammed Bin Rashid Housing Establishment has also reported progress on housing projects in Al-Awir as part of a wider programme to develop residential communities across Dubai.

    The sewerage and stormwater project is relatively large compared with recent stormwater tenders, with the total cost estimated at up to AED1bn ($272m).

    The works will include approximately 69.2km of house connection pipes and 4,630 inspection chambers. The sewerage network will also include about 1,511 manholes, while the stormwater network will comprise approximately 1,247 manholes.

    Contractors will also be required to use no-dig construction methods for sections of the pipeline. The scope includes ground investigations, utility protection and traffic management.

    The bill of quantities specifies a stormwater pond with a composite volume of approximately 1.2 million cubic metres.

    Earlier this week, Dubai Municipality confirmed it had awarded contracts worth AED3bn ($817m) to expand the emirate’s stormwater drainage network by about 100 square kilometres under phase three of the Tasreef programme.

    The projects are part of Dubai’s AED30bn Tasreef programme and will cover Jumeirah, Umm Suqeim, Al-Quoz, Al-Barsha, Al-Wasl and Al-Marmoom. 

    The overall programme aims to increase the emirate’s stormwater drainage capacity by 700% and reduce costs associated with pumping stations, network operations and maintenance by 20%.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20977734/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Contractors bid for QatarEnergy’s North Field West topsides

    28 October 2026

     

    QatarEnergy has received technical bids from contractors for a key tender covering the engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) of large platforms for the North Field gas field in Qatari waters.

    Contractors submitted their technical bids by the 26 October deadline, according to sources.

    Commercial bids are currently due on 10 November.

    The following contractors, among others, are understood to be bidding for the North Field West (NFW) production deck modules (PDMs) tender:

    • China Offshore Oil Engineering Company (China)
    • Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon (India)
    • McDermott (US)
    • Saipem (Italy)

    The core scope comprises the EPCI of four PDMs and associated structures. The modules will increase gas production from North Field reservoirs and supply additional gas feedstock to the NFW liquefied natural gas (LNG) development.

    Issued earlier this year, the tender forms part of the wider NFW project, the third and final phase of QatarEnergy’s North Field LNG expansion programme.

    The technical-bid deadline has been extended several times, from 30 August to 15 September, 28 September, 12 October and 19 October. Commercial bids were previously due on 25 October, as MEED reported.

    Before issuing the PDMs tender, QatarEnergy awarded US firm McDermott an EPCI contract for four offshore jackets to support gas feedstock supply for the NFW LNG project. The contract is estimated to be worth about $200m, MEED reported in January.

    North Field LNG expansion

    QatarEnergy is advancing the three phases of its estimated $40bn North Field LNG expansion project. EPC works on all three projects are progressing.

    QatarEnergy is understood to have committed nearly $30bn to the first two phases – North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) – which will lift Qatar’s LNG production capacity from 77.5 million tonnes a year (t/y) to 126 million t/y by 2028.

    QatarEnergy awarded the main EPC contracts for NFE in 2021. The project was intended to raise LNG output to 110 million t/y by 2025. The $13bn EPC package – covering the EPCI of four LNG trains, each with a capacity of 8 million t/y – was awarded in February 2021 to a consortium of Japan’s Chiyoda and France’s Technip Energies.

    In May 2023, QatarEnergy awarded the $10bn main EPC contract for NFS to a consortium of Technip Energies and Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC). The contract includes two LNG trains, each with a capacity of 7.8 million t/y.

    Once fully operational, the first two phases are expected to add 48 million t/y of LNG supply to the global market.

    QatarEnergy took the final investment decision on NFW earlier this year, awarding an EPC contract estimated at $8bn to a joint venture comprising Technip Energies, CCC and Gulf Asia Contracting in February.

    Chiyoda carried out the front-end engineering and design work for the NFW LNG project.

    The NFW scope covers the EPC of two LNG trains with a combined capacity of 16 million t/y, as well as associated facilities for gas treatment, natural gas liquids recovery and helium extraction.

    In addition to LNG, NFW is expected to produce about 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day of condensate, ethane and liquefied petroleum gas.

    With all three phases under EPC execution – and NFE scheduled for commissioning later this year – QatarEnergy is positioning itself to remain one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers in the long term.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20973187/main.jpg
    Indrajit Sen
  • US military approaches contractors for Qatar air base project

    28 October 2026

     

    The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has begun market engagement for an anticipated contract to design and build a Space Campus at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar.

    USACE’s Southwestern Division, Middle East District, has issued a sources-sought notice to identify contractors capable of delivering an integrated design-and-construction (IDaC) contract.

    The successful contractor will provide pre-construction services and build secure facilities that comply with Intelligence Community Directive 705 (ICD 705) standards.

    Interested firms must submit capability statements by 30 October.

    The construction market engagement follows USACE’s procurement of architect-engineer services for the development. The authority intends to award a single-award, task-order contract covering planning, design, site investigations and construction-phase support. The contract will have a five-year base period, with a two-year option, and a capacity of up to $100m.

    USACE expects to award the design contract in April 2028, alongside an IDaC construction contract following completion of the planning activities.

    The Space Campus is being developed to meet an operational requirement of the US Air Force and forms part of the Al-Udeid Air Base 2040 Strategic Master Plan.

    It will include a secure administrative headquarters, coalition operations centre, secure warehouse, conference centre, storage facilities, access-control and guardhouse complex, antenna yards, shelters and multiple unit buildings.

    The scope also includes secure perimeter fencing, intrusion-detection and closed-circuit television systems, roads, parking, site preparation, utility networks, substations, generators, chilled-water systems, fuelling facilities, and secure and unclassified communications networks.

    The project will require hardened and potentially underground structures. Contractors are expected to demonstrate expertise in managing saline groundwater, dewatering, underground waterproofing and Qatar’s geotechnical conditions.

    The latest procurement activity comes as Qatar’s Public Works Authority, Ashghal, tenders a contract for roads and associated infrastructure serving Al-Udeid Air Base.

    The project in Zone 95 of Al-Wakra Municipality includes a dual-lane carriageway, three roundabouts, electrical substations, drainage, lighting, intelligent transport systems and utility works.

    The road will link Al-Majd Road to the east with Street 203 in Zone 95 to the west.

    According to GlobalData’s Qatar Defence Market 2026-2031 report, Qatar allocated an estimated $17bn to defence in 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5% between 2022 and 2026.

    The defence budget is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% over the 2027-31 forecast period, reaching an estimated $20.8bn in 2031.

    Defence diplomacy is also a key factor in military procurement, with Doha strengthening bilateral ties through acquisitions from the US, France and Turkiye.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20971169/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal