meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy regains regional lead

29 May 2024

 

The UAE has edged ahead of Saudi Arabia again to take the lead in the MEED Economic Activity Index, which assesses the near-term economic health of regional markets, as a gap has opened up between the economic and fiscal performances of the two countries in 2024 to date.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered 2024 with similarly buoyant 4% real GDP growth projections from the Washington-based IMF, but have since diverged. In April, the IMF revised its growth forecast for the UAE to 3.5%, and the forecast for Saudi Arabia 2.6%. 

The World Bank has meanwhile maintained a more optimistic 3.9% real GDP growth projection for the UAE in 2024, but an even lower projection of 2.5% for Saudi Arabia.

The trade and fiscal balance performances of the two countries have also diverged. The UAE is forecast for a 7.8% of GDP current account surplus and 4.5% of GDP fiscal surplus, while Saudi Arabia’s current account surplus has narrowed to 0.5% of GDP, while its budget has slipped into a 2.8% deficit.

Oil price impact

Saudi Arabia’s reduction in its growth and slide into fiscal deficit have both partially been brought about by the impact of softer oil prices and Opec-led production cuts, which have naturally hit the more heavily oil-dependent Saudi economy to a greater extent than the more diversified UAE economy. The UAE Central Bank is forecasting a non-oil GDP growth rate of 4.7% for the country in both 2024 and 2025.

Together, the two countries remain comfortably in the lead at the top of the index, due in large part to the buoyancy of both of their projects markets. Contract award values in the past 12 months for both countries were double the long-term average, while new work outstripped completed work twofold in the UAE and fourfold in Saudi Arabia.

Wider market

Elsewhere in the GCC, Qatar and Oman have both seen their real GDP growth slip in 2024, to 2% and 1.2%, respectively – driven by slight weakness in both the hydrocarbons and non-hydrocarbons sectors. Both countries remain in fiscal surplus, however, and have stable projects markets, with work being tendered at or above the long-term average award values and above the rate of completion.

Kuwait is projected to see its GDP contract for the second year in a row as a weaker oil market and production cuts hit hard. Kuwait is the most heavily oil-dependent and least diversified country in the region, with 95% of exports and 90% of government revenue coming from the oil sector, making the country and its real GDP metric highly sensitive to fluctuations in the oil price – though it still has a fiscal surplus. At the same time, the country’s projects market also continues to underperform, with contract awards 40% below the long-term average and 25% below the rate of completion.

Algeria has meanwhile risen up the ranking and boasts a forecast of 3.8% real GDP growth in 2024 – the strongest in the region, according to the IMF. While it is still expected to remain deep in fiscal deficit, inflation is on a downward trend, and the projects market has above-average contract award activity.

Bahrain, despite a projected 3.6% growth rate in 2024, remains in concerning fiscal and debt positions. Its short-term risk rating was recently elevated to the second-highest level by insurance group Allianz. The Bahraini projects market is also in steep decline, with the value of contract awards in the last 12 months coming in at just over a third of the long-term average and at little more than half the level of project completions.

Morocco, Jordan and Egypt are all expected to experience moderate 2-3% real GDP growth rates this year, while continuing to struggle with persisting current account and fiscal deficits. All three countries also have elevated unemployment and government debt, as well as underperforming projects markets, with awards over the past 12 months at two-thirds or less of long-term historic averages.

Iraq is another country with high oil market dependence and oil price sensitivity and is forecast for just 1.4% real GDP growth this year. Short-term risk in the country is also in an elevated state amid political turbulence and weaknesses in the security situation that have seen repeated attacks by non-state actors on oil sector infrastructure. The projects market nevertheless remains nominally steady for now, with sustained award activity at the level of long-term averages and also at the rate of project completions.

Tunisia has sunk to the bottom of the index with a weakened 1.9% growth rate in 2024 and an even lower growth projection of 1.8% in 2025 as the country continues to be caught up in political chaos and an economic crisis. Short-term risk is high, as are the rates of unemployment and inflation. The projects sector is reasonably active, but contract awards remain below the long-term average.

ABOUT THE INDEX

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11824050/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Iraq’s first LNG terminal to be completed in June

    27 April 2026

    Iraq’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal is expected to be completed in early June, according to the country’s Ministry of Electricity.

    The terminal, which has an estimated investment value of $450m, is being developed at the Port of Khor Al-Zubair and will have a capacity of 750 million standard cubic feet a day (cf/d).

    Ministry spokesperson Ahmed Mousa told the Iraqi News Agency that “work is proceeding at an accelerated pace to complete the LNG platform”, noting that “the government has set 1 June as the date for finishing the project”.

    In October last year, US-based Excelerate Energy signed a commercial agreement with a subsidiary of Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity to develop the floating LNG terminal.

    The contract was signed at the office of Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani during a ceremony attended by senior officials from both countries, including the US deputy secretary of energy James Danly.

    The contract included a five-year agreement for regasification services and LNG supply with extension options, featuring a minimum contracted offtake of 250 million cf/d.

    Ahmed Mousa said that “under the contract, the company is responsible for completing the facility as well as securing the agreed gas quantities from any source, in line with the specified terms”.

    He added: “Work is continuing according to the planned timelines to complete the project on schedule, as part of the Ministry of Electricity’s plans to keep pace with peak summer loads.”

    Although Iraq is Opec’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, it is a net natural gas importer because its lack of infrastructure investment has meant that, until 2023, it flared roughly half of the estimated 3.12 billion cf/d of gas produced in association with crude oil.

    Iraq’s reliance on flaring associated gas instead of gathering and processing it has prevented the country from fully realising its potential as a gas producer and forced the Iraqi government to rely on costly gas and electricity imports from Iran.

    Recently, Iraq’s oil and gas sector has been disrupted by fallout from the US and Israel’s attack on Iran on 28 February and the subsequent regional conflict.

    Over recent weeks, Iraq’s oil exports have collapsed by about 80% amid problems shipping crude through the Strait of Hormuz.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577746/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Kuwait approves Doha desalination plant award

    27 April 2026

    Kuwait’s Central Agency for Public Tenders has approved the recommendation of the Ministry of Electricity & Water to award a KD114.28m ($371.5m) contract to supply, install, operate and maintain the second phase of the Doha seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) desalination plant.

    A joint venture of Kuwait-based Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding Company (Heisco) and India’s VA Tech Wabag has been selected for the project, with the award understood to be pending final approval from the Audit Bureau.

    The project will deliver a production capacity of about 60 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD) and will include the desalination plant with full reverse osmosis trains, pre- and post-treatment systems, recarbonation equipment, booster pumps, and safety and filtration systems.

    The total project duration is 96 months. The Doha SWRO desalination plant is part of Kuwait’s broader programme to expand water production capacity and reduce reliance on thermal desalination methods.

    MEED previously reported that the Heisco/Wabag joint venture submitted the lowest bid. Bidders and prices included:

    • Heavy Engineering Industries & Shipbuilding / Wabag: $373.2m
    • Cox Water (Spain): $538.1m
    • Orascom Construction (Egypt): $568.4m

    In April 2025, MEED reported that Kuwait had retendered the contract for the facility after the ministry cancelled the initial tender in June 2024.

    The Ministry of Electricity & Water awarded South Korea’s Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction – now known as Doosan Enerbility – a $422m contract in May 2016 to build the 60 MIGD Doha 1 SWRO plant.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577722/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Firms prepare bids for 250MW Airtrunk data centre

    27 April 2026

     

    Contractors are preparing to submit commercial offers by 4 May for a contract to build a 250MW data centre in Riyadh.

    The project is being co-developed by Australian firm AirTrunk in collaboration with Saudi Arabia’s artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company Humain, which is owned by the Public Investment Fund (PIF).

    The bidders include:

    • El-Seif Engineering Contracting / Larsen & Toubro (local/India)
    • FCC / Alfanar Projects (Spain/local)
    • Albawani / Orascom (local/Egypt)
    • Nesma & Partners (local
    • James L Williams (UAE)
    • Alec (UAE)

    In October last year, AirTrunk and Humain announced a $3bn partnership to build data centres in Saudi Arabia, marking AirTrunk’s first move into the region.

    The firms said they would, along with AirTrunk investor Blackstone, “develop a long-term strategic partnership focused on financing, developing and operating next-generation data centres and AI infrastructure across the kingdom”.

    This was followed by Humain signing a $1.2bn financing agreement with the state-backed National Infrastructure Fund to support the expansion of AI and digital infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia. The agreement was signed in January on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

    Humain said the deal will support its plan to develop up to 250MW of hyperscale AI data centre capacity in the kingdom.

    According to a joint statement, the data centres will use graphics processing units for AI training and inference, serving Humain’s customers locally, regionally and globally.

    The National Infrastructure Fund and Humain will also explore launching an AI data centre investment platform, with the two organisations acting as anchor investors to enable local and international institutional investors to back the scale-up of Humain’s AI programme.

    The National Infrastructure Fund is Saudi Arabia’s lead development financing partner for infrastructure and operates under the supervision of the National Development Fund.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577720/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Diriyah confirms $490m museum construction contract

    27 April 2026

    Saudi gigaproject developer Diriyah Company has formally announced the award of a SR1.84bn ($490m) construction contract for its Saudi Arabia Museum of Contemporary Art (SAMoCA) within the Diriyah development in Riyadh.

    The contract has been awarded to a consortium comprising Egyptian contractor Hassan Allam Construction and Saudi Arabia’s Albawani.

    In February, MEED exclusively reported that the contractors were preparing to start construction work on the project. MEED understands Diriyah Company awarded the contract to the consortium in December last year.

    The announcement follows Diriyah Company’s award of an estimated SR2.5bn ($666m) contract to build the Pendry superblock package in the DG2 area.

    The Pendry superblock includes the construction of the Pendry Hotel alongside residential and commercial assets. The package will cover 75,365 square metres and is located in the northwestern district of the DG2 area.

    In February, Diriyah Company also awarded a SR717m ($192m) contract for the construction of the One Hotel, located in the Diriyah Two area of the masterplan, with a gross floor area of more than 31,000 sq m.

    The Diriyah masterplan envisages the city as a cultural and lifestyle tourism destination. Located northwest of Riyadh city centre, it will span 14 square kilometres and combine 300 years of history, culture and heritage with hospitality facilities.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577413/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • UAE mandates In-Country Value for state firms

    27 April 2026

    The UAE Cabinet, chaired by Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, has approved an update to the National In-Country Value (ICV) programme that will shift it from an incentive-based framework to a mandatory requirement.

    The mandate will apply to all federal entities and companies in which the UAE government holds a stake of 25% or more. The decision aims to steer government procurement and institutional demand towards national products, leveraging state spending to localise critical industries and strengthen national industrial security.

    The cabinet also approved the establishment of the National Industrial Resilience Fund with a capital of AED1bn ($272m) to support the development of local industries. The fund will support the localisation of critical industries and strengthen supply chain resilience, focusing on improving industrial readiness for vital products and securing continuity of supply by leveraging artificial intelligence for forecasting and risk management.

    Resources will be allocated based on national priorities, with a focus on food security, manufacturing, primary metals, and mechanical, electrical and chemical industries. Further investment will target pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients, medical supplies, advanced technology and the construction sector.

    “Our target is clear: fully localise more than 5,000 critical products,” said Sheikh Mohammed. “We are launching an AED1bn fund to strengthen resilience, expand local production, secure supply chains, and scale the use of artificial intelligence across production and operations.”

    MEED’s May 2026 report on the UAE includes:

    > COMMENT: Conflict tests UAE diversification
    > GVT &: ECONOMY: UAE economy absorbs multi-sector shock
    > BANKING: UAE banks ready to weather the storm
    > ATTACKS: UAE counts energy infrastructure costs
    > UPSTREAM: Adnoc builds long-term oil and gas production potential
    > DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc Gas to rally UAE downstream project spending
    > POWER: Large-scale IPPs drive UAE power market
    > WATER: UAE water investment broadens beyond desalination
    > CONSTRUCTION: War casts shadow over UAE construction boom
    > TRANSPORT: UAE rail momentum grows as trade routes face strain

    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16577427/main.jpg
    Colin Foreman