meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy reclaims pole position

22 November 2023

 

The UAE has returned to the top of the MEED Economic Activity Index amid the country’s sustained, robust economic performance in 2023, despite the impact of Opec+ production cuts on oil output.

The country is projected to achieve a real GDP growth rate of 3.4 per cent in 2023, and this is forecast to rise to 4 per cent in 2024. The UAE has also returned to fiscal surplus amid higher oil prices, and project activity has surged as the real estate sector has boomed again.

The country has awarded $72bn-worth of contracts in the past 12 months, almost double the long-term annual average of $37bn. The net value of active projects under execution also rose $33bn in the period, as calculated by project awards minus completions.

Mixed GCC performance

Saudi Arabia’s performance has declined, with its real GDP growth rate in 2023 crimped by the Opec+ oil production cuts to just 0.8 per cent, and with Riyadh headed for a fiscal deficit. The country’s growth is forecast to recover to 4 per cent in 2024, and domestic project activity is surging. 

Saudi Arabia’s award of $84bn-worth of contracts in the past 12 months is also almost double the long-term annual average of $43bn. The net value of active projects rose by $54bn. 

Qatar, meanwhile, has an estimated real GDP growth rate of 2.4 per cent in 2023 and a forecast of 2.2 per cent for 2024. The country’s indomitable finances are supported by its soaring gas export revenue. This has led to a fiscal surplus of more than 10 per cent of GDP in 2023. 

Project activity has also recovered in the past 12 months, with $18bn in awards. This value is below the long-term average of $20bn, however, amid shrinkage in the projects market relative to the World Cup boom. The net value of active projects has fallen by $5.5bn.

Kuwait’s economic performance has been hit by the Opec+ cuts, with its real GDP falling by 0.6 per cent, and with only a 3.6 per cent recovery expected in 2024. Despite a 14 per cent nominal fiscal surplus, the projects market continues to underperform, with just $7.5bn-worth of awards in the past 12 months, well below the long-term average of $11bn.

Oman has been similarly hit by the Opec+ cuts, giving it an estimated growth rate of 1.2 per cent for 2023, with a forecast of 2.7 per cent in 2024. The country’s projects market meanwhile saw just $3.9bn of awards in the past 12 months – less than half the long-term annual average of $8.3bn. The period saw a $5bn decline in the net value of active projects.

Bahrain has maintained a steadier economic performance, with 2.7 per cent real GDP growth in 2023 and 3.6 per cent forecast for 2024. Manama remains in fiscal deficit, however, at 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, and its ballooning public debt currently sits at about 120 per cent of GDP. The projects market is also in a dire state, with only $1.2bn in contract awards in the past 12 months.

Beyond the GCC

Jordan leads the non-GCC countries in the index, having tamped down its inflation to 2.7 per cent – the lowest of any non-GCC country – and having maintained an estimated 2.6 per cent real GDP growth rate in 2023. While Amman faces problematic fiscal deficit, debt and unemployment levels, the award of a $3bn contract for the expansion of the Zarqa refinery in January could prove to be a boost for the projects market.

Tunisia’s real GDP output has dimmed to an estimated 1.3 per cent in 2023, and the country is battling 9.5 per cent inflation. Nevertheless, its projects sector has experienced a boost in the past 12 months, with $1.8bn-worth of awards.

Egypt has maintained a healthier estimated 4.2 per cent real GDP growth rate in 2023, but its economy is also overheating, with a 23.5 per cent consumer price inflation rate. The projects market is also losing steam, with contract awards falling to $16.7bn in the past 12 months, down from $37bn in the 12 months prior.

The UAE has returned to fiscal surplus amid higher oil prices, and project activity has surged as the real estate sector has boomed again

Economic pariah Iran has maintained a growth rate of 3 per cent, but is encumbered by a massive 47 per cent consumer price inflation rate. The country’s project market activity has nevertheless picked up, with $13bn of awards in the past 12 months – triple that of the previous year.

Algeria and Morocco have both maintained moderate levels of growth and single-digit inflation, but the projects
markets in both countries have also weakened significantly. 

While Algeria’s contract awards picked up in the past 12 months, to $4.3bn, this activity is still well below the long-term annual average of $7bn. The market shed $6.7bn in net value over the period in terms of active projects. 

Morocco’s projects market, meanwhile, fell away almost entirely, with just $797m in contract awards in the past 12 months, well below the $4.7bn-worth of awards in the 12 months prior.

Iraq rounds out the MEED Economic Activity Index with an estimated 2.7 per cent contraction in its economy in 2023 due to the Opec+ cuts. The country has largely maintained its projects activity, however, with $10.3bn-worth of awards over the past 12 months. 

About the index

MEED’s Economic Activity Index, first published in June 2020, combines macroeconomic, fiscal, social and risk factors, alongside data from regional projects tracker MEED Projects on the project landscape, to provide an indication of the near-term economic potential of Middle East and North African markets.

View the May 2023 index here
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11314922/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Adnoc Gas and Jera sign $450m LNG deal

    28 January 2025

    Adnoc Gas, the natural gas processing and exporting subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc Group), and its subsidiaries have announced the signing of a AED1.653bn ($450m) three-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreement with Jera Global Markets, a trading subsidiary of Japan’s Jera Company Incorporated.

    The LNG will be supplied from Adnoc Gas’ Das Island liquefaction facility, which has a production capacity of approximately 6 million tonnes a year. 

    In a statement, Adnoc Gas said the agreement reaffirms the company's position as a "reliable global supplier of clean energy" while supporting Japan's energy requirements.

    Fatema Al-Nuaimi, CEO of Adnoc Gas, said the agreement builds on the robust UAE-Japan energy relationship and decades of collaboration between Adnoc Gas and Jera.

    "We will continue to support Japan’s energy needs and reinforce our position as a reliable partner in the global LNG market," she added.

    Kazunori Kasai, chief optimisation officer of Jera Company and chairman of Jera Global Markets, noted that the new supply agreement with Adnoc Gas reflects the "active measures we take to ensure that our global portfolio remains diverse, flexible and competitive".

    In October 2023, Adnoc Gas also won an order for LNG supply from Jera Global Markets.

    The value of the multi-year LNG supply contract was between $500m and $700m, Adnoc Group said at the time. The company did not specify the duration of the agreement or the volume of LNG that Adnoc Gas will supply each year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13344453/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Lunate to acquire Snam stake in Abu Dhabi pipeline

    28 January 2025

    Abu Dhabi-based investment firm Lunate is to acquire a minority stake in Adnoc Gas Pipelines that is indirectly held by Italian gas infrastructure operator Snam.

    The deal comes less than one year after Lunate acquired a 40% stake in Adnoc Oil Pipelines from US asset management firms BlackRock and KKR.

    The transaction with Snam, which is subject to the signing of the sale and purchase agreement, as well as to the potential exercise of the relevant shareholders’ rights, will be made through Lunate’s Long-Term Capital Fund 1, Snam said in a statement on 28 January.

    Adnoc Gas Pipelines, a subsidiary of state energy company Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), has lease rights to 38 pipelines covering a total of 982 kilometres across the UAE.

    The gas pipeline network serves as a strategic link connecting Adnoc's upstream assets to local UAE offtakers.

    "It represents a high-quality and essential asset that generates stable and predictable cash flows in a critical sector and is a major contributor to the UAE’s energy infrastructure strategy," the statement said.

    Snam acquired its stake in Adnoc Gas Pipelines in 2020, along with other consortium partners, including GIP, GIC, Brookfield Asset Management, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board and NH Investment & Securities, through Galaxy Pipeline Assets HoldCo.

    Lunate acquired its 40% stake in Adnoc Oil Pipelines from BlackRock and KKR in April 2024.

    The acquisition by Lunate’s Long Term Capital Fund was executed through the purchase of a 100% stake in a special purpose vehicle jointly held by BlackRock and KKR managed funds, Lunate said at the time.

    The parties did not disclose the financial terms of the deal. BlackRock and KKR spent $4bn on the acquisition of the 40% stake in Adnoc Oil Pipelines in 2019.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13344300/main3019.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Acwa Power and Snam plan hydrogen cooperation

    28 January 2025

    Riyadh-based utility developer and investor Acwa Power has signed a memorandum of understanding with Italy's Snam to explore collaboration and joint investments to establish a green hydrogen supply chain to Europe.

    A leading European operator in natural gas transportation, storage and regasification, Snam aims to build "a pan-European multi-molecule infrastructure, advancing energy security and the transition to net zero", a joint statement said.

    Acwa Power is developing the largest known green hydrogen and ammonia plant in the Neom gigaproject in Saudi Arabia.

    The partnership will "explore potential collaboration and joint investments to establish an international supply chain for a dependable and cost-effective supply of green hydrogen from Saudi Arabia to Europe".

    The two firms also plan to explore the development of an ammonia import terminal in Italy to facilitate the delivery of green hydrogen through the South H2 Corridor, the 3,300-kilometre-long corridor reaching central Europe through Italy, Austria and Germany.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13344199/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Sace to provide $100m credit to Acwa Power

    28 January 2025

    The Italian insurance and financial group fully owned by Italy's Economy & Finance Ministry, Sace, has agreed to provide a credit facility worth $100m to support Saudi utility developer Acwa Power's green projects in Central Asia.

    The deal will facilitate the export of Italian companies and is in line with Sace's mandate, a joint statement said on 26 January.

    "Sace will provide a $100m line of credit to Acwa Power in exchange for a commitment to create business matching opportunities with Italian companies in their respective areas of interest," the statement said.

    Sace and Acwa Power have also documented a commitment to explore new opportunities and evaluate up to $500m in support, to facilitate exports from Italy and promote the internationalisation of Italian companies, including small and medium-sized enterprises.

    The agreements were signed by the CEO of Acwa Power, Marco Arcelli, and by the CEO of Sace, Alessandra Ricci, on the occasion of Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni's visit to Saudi Arabia.

    The agreement with Sace is one of several that Acwa Power signed with Italian companies on the sidelines of the Saudi-Italian High-Level Roundtable Meeting in Al-Ula, Saudi Arabia.

    It signed agreements with Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP), the Italian financial institution for development cooperation; De Nora, a multinational company specialising in water treatment technologies; and Ansaldo Energia, a power generation equipment manufacturer.

    The latter agreement was signed by Nomac Holding, a fully-owned subsidiary of Acwa Power.

    Acwa Power's Arcelli said: "The opportunities for cooperation between Saudi and Italian companies are immense in the sphere of supply, localisation, financing and energy.

    "We believe that bringing together our competencies and resources will significantly advance energy transition and water security, promoting sustainable infrastructure developments not only in our countries but also in Africa, Central and Southeast Asia and the rest of the Middle East."

    Photo credit: Acwa Power

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13341499/main.jpg
    Jennifer Aguinaldo
  • Firm wins Al-Nouf IWP technical advisory role

    27 January 2025

     

    Abu Dhabi-based offtaker Emirates Water & Electricity Company (Ewec) is understood to have awarded the technical advisory contract for its next independent water project (IWP) in Al-Nouf.

    According to sources familiar with the project, the planned Al-Nouf seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) IWP will have a design capacity of up to 170 million imperial gallons a day (MIGD), or approximately 772,835 cubic metres a day (cm/d).

    Austria-headquartered ILF Consulting Engineers has won the contract, industry sources tell MEED.

    MEED understands that the legal and financial advisory packages for the Al-Nouf IWP will be tendered and awarded separately.  

    Al-Nouf will be Abu Dhabi's second-largest IWP after the 909,218-cm/d Taweelah SWRO plant, which reached full commercial operations in April 2023. It will be the UAE's third-largest, slightly behind Dubai's 818,280-cm/d Hassyan 1 SWRO project, which is under construction.   

    A facility in Al-Nouf will require a long pipeline that will connect the plant to Abu Dhabi, and will likely involve the participation of Abu Dhabi Transmission & Despatch Company (Transco), sources told MEED last year.

    This latest development follows a revision of the scope and capacity of Abu Dhabi's fourth IWP scheme. The Saadiyat Island IWP will have a capacity of 60MIGD.

    When it was tendered in July 2023, the original scheme – called the Abu Dhabi Islands IWP – comprised two SWRO plants, each with a capacity of 50MIGD, to be located on the Saadiyat and Hudayriat islands in Abu Dhabi.

    Ewec previously said these projects are important to Abu Dhabi’s water security due to their proximity to the load centre of the Abu Dhabi islands, and because of the scheduled decommissioning in 2028 of the integrated power and water desalination plant at Sas Nakhl.

    As in previously tendered IWPs, the successful developer or consortium will own up to 40% of a special-purpose vehicle that will implement these projects, while the remaining equity will be primarily held indirectly by the Abu Dhabi government.

    Awarded IWP contracts 

    Ewec and Spain's Acciona, the lowest bidder for the Saadiyat Island IWP that was tendered last year, have yet to sign a water purchase agreement.

    In comparison, Ewec awarded the contracts for two IWPs in 2023. Ewec, Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (Taqa) and France’s Engie signed the water purchase agreement for the Mirfa 2 IWP project in February 2023. They reached financial close for the project, which will have a capacity of 120MIGD, two months later.

    Taqa, Ewec and South Korea’s GS Inima reached financial close on the $444m Shuweihat 4 SWRO IWP in December of the same year. Located within the Shuweihat power and water complex, the facility will supply up to 70MIGD of potable water. Commercial operations are expected to commence in the second quarter of 2026.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/13341397/main.gif
    Jennifer Aguinaldo