UAE economy maintains robust growth
25 October 2023
UAE economic growth is largely on track as projected in 2023, with the growth estimates and forecasts remaining much as they were earlier in the year.
The latest estimates from the Washington-based IMF indicate a 3.4 per cent real GDP growth rate for the year, down only 0.1 per cent from the 3.5 per cent projected in April 2023, and still comfortably ahead of the global growth forecast of 3 per cent. The economy is then projected to pick up tempo in 2024 to a growth rate of 4 per cent.
The growth of the UAE’s non-oil economy has been higher than its oil growth over the course of 2023, with the IMF expecting the non-oil growth rate for the year to exceed 4 per cent, benefitting from strong domestic activity. It also projects a repeat of this performance in 2024.
The repeated extensions of the Opec+ production cuts have affected the country’s oil sector growth. However, the UAE’s oil output is set to accelerate next year with the UAE’s 2024 Opec+ production quota increase.
Consumer price inflation in the country is expected to have eased to an annual average of 3.1 per cent by the end of the year, compared to 4.8 per cent in 2022. This is then forecast to ease further to about 2.3 per cent in 2024, or roughly baseline levels.
Ali al-Eyd, the leader of an IMF team that visited the UAE in September, noted that “fiscal and external surpluses remain high on the back of high oil prices. The fiscal balance is expected to be around 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, driven by oil revenue and strong economic activity”.
Speaking to the broader fiscal and structural reforms under way in the UAE, Al-Eyd added: “The phased introduction of a corporate income tax that began in June 2023 will support higher non-oil revenue over the medium term.
“Public debt is projected to continue to decline, falling firmly below 30 per cent of GDP in 2023, including with the benefit of the Dubai emirate reducing its public debt by AED29bn ($7.9bn) in line with its Public Debt Sustainability Strategy. The current account surplus is expected to be notably above the medium-term level in 2023 and 2024.”
Surge in activity
In the latest assessments of business activity in the country, measured through the S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey, the UAE has shown an uptick in September, with the index rising to 56.7, where a value over 50 denotes growth.
This is up from 55 the previous month and is the most significant leap for the index since June, indicating a positive turn for the country’s non-oil private sector.
The index performance was driven by a rise in new orders, the sub-index for which reached 64.7 in September in a significant jump from 57.6 in the preceding month. This reflects a level of new order growth not witnessed since June 2019, and the evidence of rising demand came from across both domestic and external markets.
According to S&P, “the rate of new order growth was sharp and faster than the trend observed since the survey began in August 2009”.
The output sub-index also climbed to 62.8 in September, up from 61.9 the previous month, reflecting the influx of new orders, while there was also a knock-on boost to hiring, with non-oil firms reporting an increase in employment.
Below the country level, the PMI index for Dubai reached its highest level in three months, rising to 56.1 in September, up from 55.0 in August.
According to S&P, the index has averaged 55.5 over the first three quarters of the year, paralleling the first nine months of 2022, and this consistency aligns with a forecast of 4.0 per cent real GDP growth for Dubai in 2023.
There was a surge in new orders in Dubai, similarly to the fastest rate since mid-2019. According to Daniel Richards, senior Middle East and North Africa economist at Emirates NBD, this in turn “also boosted business confidence, which rose to the highest level since March 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic crisis took hold”.
Despite rising input costs, which saw the most substantial increase since July 2022, “the strong orderbook outweighed the impact of rising costs on sentiment”, notes Richards.
Growth areas
In terms of the sectors of growth, both the construction sector and wholesale and retail trade exhibited robust performances. The construction index reached a three-month high, rising to 54.5, and the wholesale and retail trade index reached 56.5, helping to lead the overall index score for Dubai.
The positive outlook in retail resulted in the fastest employment growth in that sector since May 2019.
Looking ahead, the UAE is addressing the central issues of energy transition through the lens of its UAE Energy Strategy 2050 and UAE Net Zero 2050 in the lead up to the UN Cop28 climate summit in November, while other areas of strategic focus for 2050 remain economic diversification, trade partnerships, digitalisation and green initiatives.
MEED’s November 2023 special report on the UAE includes:
> COMMENT: UAE eyes global leadership role
> POLITICS: Abu Dhabi networks on the global stage
> ECONOMY: UAE economy maintains robust growth
> BANKING: UAE banks enjoy the good times
> UPSTREAM: Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc spurs downstream gas expansions
> POWER: UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28
> WATER: UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> PROJECTS: Top 10 UAE clean energy projects
> CONSTRUCTION: UAE construction sector returns to form
> TRANSPORT: UAE aviation returns to growth
Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.
Exclusive from Meed
-
-
-
-
Axens signs Egypt refining deal8 July 2026
-
Gulftainer commits to $2bn expansion plan8 July 2026
All of this is only 1% of what MEED.com has to offer
Subscribe now and unlock all the 153,671 articles on MEED.com
- All the latest news, data, and market intelligence across MENA at your fingerprints
- First-hand updates and inside information on projects, clients and competitors that matter to you
- 20 years' archive of information, data, and news for you to access at your convenience
- Strategize to succeed and minimise risks with timely analysis of current and future market trends
Related Articles
-
Firms submit King Salman airport project prequalifications
8 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
Saudi Arabia’s King Salman International Airport Development Company (KSIADC) received prequalification statements on 1 July from contractors for two new packages at King Salman International airport (KSIA) in Riyadh.
These include the construction of a permanent East-West corridor and landside access roads serving the North and South terminals.
The scope covers the construction of roads, bridges and tunnels.
The client is expected to float the tenders soon.
The latest development follows KSIADC's selection of three groups to deliver the Terminal 6 apron, taxiways and other airfield infrastructure at KSIA.
KSIADC, which is backed by Saudi sovereign wealth vehicle the Public Investment Fund, will initially deliver the project on an early contractor involvement basis.
In March, MEED exclusively reported that KSIADC had selected three groups for the construction of Terminal 6.
In November last year, MEED reported that KSIADC was targeting mid-2026 to award the contract for the construction of Terminal 6.
MEED reported in May 2025 that US firm Bechtel Corporation had been appointed as the delivery partner for the terminals at KSIA.
According to local media reports, KSIADC’s acting CEO, Marco Mejia, said the project developer has completed the project’s masterplan.
The reports added that Terminal 6 will boost the airport’s capacity by 40 million passengers.
The project is expected to be delivered before the start of Expo 2030 Riyadh.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17588533/main.jpg -
WEBINAR: Saudi Giga Projects: Market Update for Q3 2026
8 July 2026
Webinar: Saudi Giga Projects: Market Update for Q3 2026
Tuesday 21 July 2026 | 11:00 AM GST | Register now
Agenda:
- Saudi projects market outlook and giga projects update
- 2026 contract awards, project activity and market performance
- Giga project reprioritisation, funding allocation and delivery progress
- Key project announcements, milestones and market developments to watch
- Major contracts awarded across construction, infrastructure and utilities
- Upcoming tenders and contract award opportunities over the next 6–12 months
- Geopolitical risks and their impact on project execution and investment
- Progress across NEOM, The Red Sea, Diriyah, Qiddiya and New Murabba
- Major non-giga project opportunities and growth sectors across Saudi Arabia
- Short-, medium- and long-term outlook for the Saudi projects market
- Audience Q&A
Hosted by: Yasir Iqbal, MEED's construction editor
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17588750/main.jpg -
Genel Energy buys Egypt-focused oil company for $360m
8 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
UK-listed Genel Energy has agreed to acquire Egypt-focused Capricorn Energy in a $360m all-cash deal.
Genel said the acquisition will combine its Kurdistan production base with Capricorn’s portfolio of Egyptian oil and gas assets.
The company also said the deal will allow it to obtain production in a country with a “well-established regulatory regime, stable contracts and attractive fiscal terms”.
Several approvals are still required before the acquisition can be finalised.
In a statement, Genel said: “Genel’s strategy is to build a business with resilient diversified cash flows that deliver sustainable value to shareholders.
“The Genel board and Genel management are resolute in their belief that this can best be achieved through strategic acquisitions, which add substantial high-quality producing assets to its existing portfolio.”
Genel’s existing oil and gas assets include its 25% non-operated working interest in the Tawke PSC in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
The company said this asset generated working interest production averaging 17,520 barrels a day (b/d) of oil in 2025 and had operating costs of around $4 a barrel.
The combined group is expected to hold reserves of 117 million barrels of oil equivalent and production of 41,003 b/d.
Capricorn is headquartered in Edinburgh and has been listed on the London Stock Exchange for more than 30 years.
Its core operations are in Egypt’s Western Desert region, where it holds onshore development and production assets.
In May 2025, Capricorn agreed with Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation to consolidate eight of its 50:50 jointly owned concessions into a single integrated licence with enhanced commercial terms. Capricorn announced in March 2026 that it had received formal parliamentary ratification of the agreement.
The deal has been announced at a time when Genel is seeing frequent disruption to operations at its assets in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Production was temporarily suspended at the Tawke field in February after the US and Israel attacked Iran, increasing security concerns in the wider region.
While the security situation is understood to have improved in the Iraqi Kurdistan region and many oil companies have resumed operations, there are now concerns that the Iraq-Turkiye Pipeline could be shut due to an agreement between the two countries expiring later this month.
If the pipeline does stop operations, it will negatively impact Genel as it is the main route through which the company’s Iraqi oil is exported.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17587599/main.jpg -
Axens signs Egypt refining deal
8 July 2026
Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access
France’s Axens has signed a long-term agreement with the Egyptian Refining Company (ERC) that covers product supply, digital transformation and refinery performance optimisation.
ERC operates Egypt’s $4.4bn Mostorod refinery, which was inaugurated in September 2020.
In a statement about the deal, Axens said that it will “leverage its comprehensive and integrated portfolio of technologies, equipment, catalysts and services to support ERC’s operational, economic and sustainability objectives”.
It added: “With its end-to-end expertise across the entire refining value chain, Axens is uniquely positioned to support ERC from early-stage project studies through engineering, unit start-up, operational optimisation and long-term technical follow-up.
“This fully integrated approach will help ensure reliability, operational excellence and environmental performance across the refinery’s life cycle.”
Quentin Debuisschert, the chief executive and chairman of Axens, said: “This long-term agreement marks an important milestone in the relationship between Axens and ERC.
“It reflects our ability to support customers beyond technology licensing by delivering a fully integrated offering that combines all process and catalyst technologies a modern refinery needs, services, digital solutions, operational expertise and training.
“We are committed to supporting ERC’s ambitions in operational excellence, digital transformation and sustainability while helping maximise the long-term value and competitiveness of its assets.
“We are proud and motivated to continue supporting ERC in ensuring the economic and operational success of its refinery."
Mohamed Saad, the president of ERC, said: “ERC values its strong partnership with Axens and the confidence this agreement brings for the future.
"This collaboration will help us continue enhancing refinery performance, maximising operational efficiency and delivering high-quality products to support Egypt’s energy needs.”
The Mostorod refinery is located 10 kilometres north of Cairo and has the capacity to produce about 4.7 million tonnes of petroleum products annually.
It sells all of its output directly to the national oil company Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation under a 25-year agreement.
When the refinery was brought online and reached full capacity, it boosted Egypt’s capacity to produce diesel by 30% and increased gasoline production by 15%.
Operations started at the refinery in November 2019.
Qatar Petroleum is a stakeholder in the project. It owns 38.1% of the Arabian Refinery Company, which in turn owns 66.6% of ERC.
The Mostorod refinery mainly produces Euro 5 refined products, including diesel and jet fuel, which are intended for consumption primarily in Cairo and surrounding areas.
https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17587498/main.jpg -
Gulftainer commits to $2bn expansion plan
8 July 2026
Gulftainer has unveiled a $2bn strategy to transform from a ports and terminals operator into an integrated global trade infrastructure company, a long-horizon commitment made at a port that was struck three months ago and in a region where the shipping lanes it depends on are under renewed attack.
The strategy restructures the company around four platforms: container terminals and maritime gateways, inland logistics and multimodal transport, logistics parks and industrial ecosystems, and regional maritime services connecting strategic trade corridors.
At the centre of the strategy is Khorfakkan Port, the UAE's deepwater gateway on the Gulf of Oman. Expansion works will raise annual handling capacity from 3.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) to 5 million TEUs, a 43% uplift, with a long-term master plan targeting more than 10 million TEUs. Planned integration with Etihad Rail will turn the port into a fully multimodal gateway linking sea, road and rail.
The commitment comes despite the port's recent exposure to the conflict in the region. On 5 April, a fire broke out at Khorfakkan after debris fell on the facility following the interception of an unidentified object. In a post on X, the Sharjah media office said the incident injured four people, one Nepalese national seriously and three Pakistani nationals with minor to moderate injuries. The strait through which Khorfakkan-bound traffic passes has come under further attack in recent days, with merchant vessels struck near the Strait of Hormuz.
Inland, Al-Dhaid Logistics Park and Sajaa Logistics Park will together provide 2.3 million TEUs of annual inland capacity, extending Gulftainer's reach.
The company positions itself as a key enabler of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and the UAE's role in China's Belt and Road Initiative, linking ports, shipping services, inland logistics networks and digital platforms across major global trade routes. The transformation follows nearly five decades of operation and is being implemented under the New Gulftainer strategy.
Gulftainer's partnership with the Sharjah Ports, Customs & Free Zones Authority underpins the Khorfakkan expansion. The port sits within an integrated maritime network spanning both the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, offering shippers several routing options across the two waterways.
READ THE JULY 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDFStress test for Gulf aviation; Mixed performance as country outlooks diverge in the Levant; GCC tourism sector pivots from crisis to recovery mode.
Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the July 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
> AIRPORTS: Dubai and Riyadh reaffirm airport ambitions> INDUSTRY REPORT: Dubai eyes tourism sector recovery> DATA CENTRES: Big Tech falls short on data centre promise> LEADERSHIP: Aramco’s citizen developers accelerate digital changeTo see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click herehttps://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17588407/main.jpg