meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy maintains robust growth

25 October 2023

 

UAE economic growth is largely on track as projected in 2023, with the growth estimates and forecasts remaining much as they were earlier in the year.

The latest estimates from the Washington-based IMF indicate a 3.4 per cent real GDP growth rate for the year, down only 0.1 per cent from the 3.5 per cent projected in April 2023, and still comfortably ahead of the global growth forecast of 3 per cent. The economy is then projected to pick up tempo in 2024 to a growth rate of 4 per cent.

The growth of the UAE’s non-oil economy has been higher than its oil growth over the course of 2023, with the IMF expecting the non-oil growth rate for the year to exceed 4 per cent, benefitting from strong domestic activity. It also projects a repeat of this performance in 2024.

The repeated extensions of the Opec+ production cuts have affected the country’s oil sector growth. However, the UAE’s oil output is set to accelerate next year with the UAE’s 2024 Opec+ production quota increase.

Consumer price inflation in the country is expected to have eased to an annual average of 3.1 per cent by the end of the year, compared to 4.8 per cent in 2022. This is then forecast to ease further to about 2.3 per cent in 2024, or roughly baseline levels.

Ali al-Eyd, the leader of an IMF team that visited the UAE in September, noted that “fiscal and external surpluses remain high on the back of high oil prices. The fiscal balance is expected to be around 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, driven by oil revenue and strong economic activity”.

Speaking to the broader fiscal and structural reforms under way in the UAE, Al-Eyd added: “The phased introduction of a corporate income tax that began in June 2023 will support higher non-oil revenue over the medium term.

“Public debt is projected to continue to decline, falling firmly below 30 per cent of GDP in 2023, including with the benefit of the Dubai emirate reducing its public debt by AED29bn ($7.9bn) in line with its Public Debt Sustainability Strategy. The current account surplus is expected to be notably above the medium-term level in 2023 and 2024.”

Surge in activity

In the latest assessments of business activity in the country, measured through the S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey, the UAE has shown an uptick in September, with the index rising to 56.7, where a value over 50 denotes growth. 

This is up from 55 the previous month and is the most significant leap for the index since June, indicating a positive turn for the country’s non-oil private sector.

The index performance was driven by a rise in new orders, the sub-index for which reached 64.7 in September in a significant jump from 57.6 in the preceding month. This reflects a level of new order growth not witnessed since June 2019, and the evidence of rising demand came from across both domestic and external markets. 

According to S&P, “the rate of new order growth was sharp and faster than the trend observed since the survey began in August 2009”. 

The output sub-index also climbed to 62.8 in September, up from 61.9 the previous month, reflecting the influx of new orders, while there was also a knock-on boost to hiring, with non-oil firms reporting an increase in employment.

Below the country level, the PMI index for Dubai reached its highest level in three months, rising to 56.1 in September, up from 55.0 in August. 

According to S&P, the index has averaged 55.5 over the first three quarters of the year, paralleling the first nine months of 2022, and this consistency aligns with a forecast of 4.0 per cent real GDP growth for Dubai in 2023.

There was a surge in new orders in Dubai, similarly to the fastest rate since mid-2019. According to Daniel Richards, senior Middle East and North Africa economist at Emirates NBD, this in turn “also boosted business confidence, which rose to the highest level since March 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic crisis took hold”. 

Despite rising input costs, which saw the most substantial increase since July 2022, “the strong orderbook outweighed the impact of rising costs on sentiment”, notes Richards.

Growth areas

In terms of the sectors of growth, both the construction sector and wholesale and retail trade exhibited robust performances. The construction index reached a three-month high, rising to 54.5, and the wholesale and retail trade index reached 56.5, helping to lead the overall index score for Dubai. 

The positive outlook in retail resulted in the fastest employment growth in that sector since May 2019.

Looking ahead, the UAE is addressing the central issues of energy transition through the lens of its UAE Energy Strategy 2050 and UAE Net Zero 2050 in the lead up to the UN Cop28 climate summit in November, while other areas of strategic focus for 2050 remain economic diversification, trade partnerships, digitalisation and green initiatives.

MEED’s November 2023 special report on the UAE includes: 

> COMMENT: UAE eyes global leadership role
> POLITICS: Abu Dhabi networks on the global stage
> ECONOMY: UAE economy maintains robust growth
> BANKING: UAE banks enjoy the good times
> UPSTREAM: Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc spurs downstream gas expansions
> POWER: UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28
> WATER: UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> PROJECTS: Top 10 UAE clean energy projects
> CONSTRUCTION: UAE construction sector returns to form
> TRANSPORT: UAE aviation returns to growth

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11231670/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Syria seeks interest for $1.16bn Euphrates dam

    7 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Syria’s Ministry of Energy has invited expressions of interest (EoIs) for the development of the Halabiyeh-Zalabiyeh dam project on the Euphrates River.

    The project has an indicative total cost of $1.16bn, according to the ministry’s EoI document. This includes $433.7m for the dam and hydropower plant and $729.6m for the pumped-storage power plant (PSP). 

    The scheme includes an 81MW hydroelectric power plant and a pumped-storage facility with a capacity of up to 1,200MW. The project will also include the construction of the dam and associated water-storage infrastructure. 

    The ministry seeks interest from qualified local and international companies, investors and other entities. Interested parties can participate in studies, design, financing, construction, and operation and maintenance of the project. 

    The ministry is considering several potential development structures, including build-own-operate-transfer, build-operate-transfer and public-private partnership models, as well as an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) structure. It has said it is also open to proposals covering consultancy and financing services.

    The EoI covers several stages, including pre-feasibility and feasibility studies, financing and bankability studies, detailed and executive design, EPC execution, and operation and maintenance.

    The technical specifications envisage a 23-metre-high dam with a reservoir storage capacity of about 219 million cubic metres.

    The hydropower plant will have three generating units, while the 1,200MW PSP will have 3.5 hours of storage capacity and four reversible units.

    The deadline for submitting EoIs is 10 November, with enquiries accepted until 26 October.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20336025/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Arada launches UAE construction arm with Roberts

    7 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    UAE developer Arada has integrated Australian contractor Roberts into the UAE market as part of its wider business strategy.

    Arada acquired Roberts in 2025 after entering the Australian market. The tier-one contractor delivers projects in the healthcare, education, commercial, residential, hospitality, industrial, life sciences and defence sectors.

    At the time of the acquisition, Arada said it planned to invest about $20m in Roberts. The investment is intended to give the developer greater control over the delivery of its Australian projects and support Roberts’ expansion into markets including the UAE.

    Arada has said it could invest up to $100m in Roberts’ expansion into new sectors and markets. The company is targeting $1bn in annual revenue from Roberts by 2028.

    Roberts has established a UAE office, with a head office team already in place. Arada said the contractor’s capabilities will support the delivery of its high-rise residential and social infrastructure projects.

    The contractor’s first UAE project will be phase two of Arada Central Business District, a commercial development within Aljada in Sharjah. Arada is developing the AED35bn ($9.5bn) mixed-use project.

    Roberts is also providing preconstruction services for several Arada projects in Dubai and Sharjah, ahead of starting site work.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20334926/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Expo Riyadh sets October deadline for Saudi Arabia pavilion

    7 October 2026

     

    Expo 2030 Riyadh Company (ERC), tasked with delivering the Expo 2030 Riyadh venue, has set a deadline of 25 October for bids for a contract to build the Saudi Arabia pavilion.

    The tender was issued on 19 May, with an initial bid submission deadline of 26 August.

    The pavilion is a major asset located within the KSA District on the eastern side of the Expo 2030 Riyadh masterplan, in the Loop of Nations district.

    Construction activity at the Expo site is accelerating, with Riyadh moving to award its first major vertical contracts and advancing infrastructure works across the programme.

    Last month, MEED reported that ERC had received contractor interest on 14 September for a contract to design and build a convention centre in the site’s Collaboration District.

    ERC also tendered a contract to deliver the Souq areas within the Expo site, as MEED exclusively reported on 8 September.

    These areas are divided into five precincts, with a total development area of about 300,000 square metres.

    Also in September, Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for Riyadh City awarded a design-and-build contract to construct a new metro station serving the Expo 2030 site.

    In April, ERC awarded two contracts for the next phase of infrastructure works at the site to local firm Al-Yamama Company.

    The scope covered the construction of road networks and infrastructure for water, sewage, electricity, telecommunications and electric vehicle (EV) charging.

    These awards followed ERC’s January award of an estimated SR1bn ($267m) contract for initial infrastructure works at the site to local firm Nesma & Partners.

    That scope covered about 50 kilometres of integrated infrastructure networks, including internal roads and essential utilities such as water, sewage, electrical and communications systems, as well as EV charging stations.

    The masterplan covers 6 square kilometres, making it one of the largest sites ever designated for a World Expo event. Situated north of the Saudi capital, the site will be near the future King Salman International airport and will provide direct access to Riyadh landmarks.

    The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth vehicle, launched ERC – a wholly owned subsidiary – in June 2025 to build and operate facilities for Expo 2030.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20334856/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Kuwait on track to hit oil production target

    7 October 2026

    Kuwait is on track to meet its target of having 4 million barrels a day (b/d) of oil production capacity by 2035, according to Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) chief executive Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah.

    Al-Sabah also said Kuwait is on course to increase non-associated gas production to 2 billion cubic feet a day by 2040.

    His comments come amid an ongoing crisis in Kuwait’s oil and gas sector linked to the regional conflict that began when the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February.

    The subsequent war has significantly disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a crucial export route for Kuwaiti crude oil.

    Kuwait is currently producing around 2 million b/d of oil, down from 2.6 million b/d before the US and Israel attack.

    Speaking at a conference in London, Al-Sabah said: “We have the capacity to go back up to our current maximum sustainable capacity of 3 million b/d, if we have the export routes available, and this comes down to the ability to move oil through the Strait.”

    KPC is investing $9bn-$10bn a year in capital expenditure to meet its oil and gas production goals, according to Al-Sabah.

    He said: “We are doing this because we recognise that it is our hydrocarbons that will be most in demand a decade from now, and two decades from now – in fact, for the rest of our lifetimes.”

    Project Seef

    KPC is pushing ahead with the Al-Seef project, which focuses on developing three large offshore oil discoveries, Al-Sabah said.

    The offshore fields are known as Nokhatha, Julaia and Jazza. The development was first announced in February this year, about two weeks before the US and Israel attack on Iran.

    Al-Sabah said KPC is continuing with the project and believes the three fields collectively hold more than 3 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

    He said: “We are asking international oil companies to partner with us to develop those resources under an operating services contract.

    “So, we’re moving ahead according to the exact same schedule that we had put together even before the war began.”

    Al-Sabah did not say which international oil companies KPC has approached to help develop the three offshore fields.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20315147/main.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Roshn plans new flagship development in Riyadh

    7 October 2026

     

    Saudi developer Roshn Group plans to develop its next flagship scheme in north Riyadh, spanning an area of 13.7 square kilometres. 

    Roshn is looking to appoint lead design consultants to deliver detailed design, tender documentation and construction documents across the scheme, known as Plot 1.

    The scope covers all infrastructure, utilities, public realm works and site adaptation of Roshn’s residential prototypes, split across two work packages.

    Part 1 covers phases A, B and E, which collectively span about 7.8 million square metres (sq m) and will comprise 17,000 units.

    Part 2 includes phases C and D, which will span about 4.7 million sq m and comprise more than 15,000 units.

    The development is bordered by Expo 2030, King Abdulaziz Park, the Sports Innovation Lab Zone and the National Housing Company-developed Khozam district.

    It will be a residential-led mixed-use development, also featuring retail, offices, hospitality, education and civic facilities.

    Connectivity is a core plank of the masterplan, with two metro stations planned: one at the existing Line 4/proposed Line 7 interchange and another dedicated Line 7 stop. The scheme would also be served by the future Qiddiya high-speed rail and a possible King Salman Road diversion.

    Plot 1 builds on Roshn’s existing footprint in the capital, notably the multi-phase Sedra community, as the developer expands beyond single-family housing into mixed-use districts under its Roshn 3.0 strategy.

    Last month, Roshn Group announced that it had signed a preliminary agreement with Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG) Saudi, the local subsidiary of Egyptian developer Talaat Moustafa Group, to establish a joint venture to explore and develop a mixed-use project in Riyadh.

    Under the agreement, TMG will hold a 51% stake in the joint company, while Roshn Group will hold 49%.

    The agreement sets out a framework for the two groups to assess a potential partnership for the project’s phased development, which is planned as a residential-led, mixed-use community featuring retail, commercial, hospitality, leisure, healthcare and education facilities, alongside parks and public spaces.

    Roshn Group and TMG Saudi plan to conduct detailed master planning and develop the project’s business case.

    Preliminary studies indicate the development could include more than 55,000 residential units across all phases.

    Roshn Group did not disclose the exact project location in its announcement.

    As a Public Investment Fund-owned developer, Roshn remains a key vehicle for delivering Vision 2030’s housing programme, which targets 70% Saudi home ownership, alongside the kingdom’s wider quality-of-life and economic diversification agendas.

    READ THE OCTOBER 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    Industry and logistics drive development at Neom; Saudi Arabia’s investment priorities realign amid conflict; MEED’s 2026 power developer ranking.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the October 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/19786131/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal