UAE economy maintains robust growth
25 October 2023

UAE economic growth is largely on track as projected in 2023, with the growth estimates and forecasts remaining much as they were earlier in the year.
The latest estimates from the Washington-based IMF indicate a 3.4 per cent real GDP growth rate for the year, down only 0.1 per cent from the 3.5 per cent projected in April 2023, and still comfortably ahead of the global growth forecast of 3 per cent. The economy is then projected to pick up tempo in 2024 to a growth rate of 4 per cent.
The growth of the UAE’s non-oil economy has been higher than its oil growth over the course of 2023, with the IMF expecting the non-oil growth rate for the year to exceed 4 per cent, benefitting from strong domestic activity. It also projects a repeat of this performance in 2024.
The repeated extensions of the Opec+ production cuts have affected the country’s oil sector growth. However, the UAE’s oil output is set to accelerate next year with the UAE’s 2024 Opec+ production quota increase.
Consumer price inflation in the country is expected to have eased to an annual average of 3.1 per cent by the end of the year, compared to 4.8 per cent in 2022. This is then forecast to ease further to about 2.3 per cent in 2024, or roughly baseline levels.
Ali al-Eyd, the leader of an IMF team that visited the UAE in September, noted that “fiscal and external surpluses remain high on the back of high oil prices. The fiscal balance is expected to be around 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, driven by oil revenue and strong economic activity”.
Speaking to the broader fiscal and structural reforms under way in the UAE, Al-Eyd added: “The phased introduction of a corporate income tax that began in June 2023 will support higher non-oil revenue over the medium term.
“Public debt is projected to continue to decline, falling firmly below 30 per cent of GDP in 2023, including with the benefit of the Dubai emirate reducing its public debt by AED29bn ($7.9bn) in line with its Public Debt Sustainability Strategy. The current account surplus is expected to be notably above the medium-term level in 2023 and 2024.”
Surge in activity
In the latest assessments of business activity in the country, measured through the S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey, the UAE has shown an uptick in September, with the index rising to 56.7, where a value over 50 denotes growth.
This is up from 55 the previous month and is the most significant leap for the index since June, indicating a positive turn for the country’s non-oil private sector.
The index performance was driven by a rise in new orders, the sub-index for which reached 64.7 in September in a significant jump from 57.6 in the preceding month. This reflects a level of new order growth not witnessed since June 2019, and the evidence of rising demand came from across both domestic and external markets.
According to S&P, “the rate of new order growth was sharp and faster than the trend observed since the survey began in August 2009”.
The output sub-index also climbed to 62.8 in September, up from 61.9 the previous month, reflecting the influx of new orders, while there was also a knock-on boost to hiring, with non-oil firms reporting an increase in employment.

Below the country level, the PMI index for Dubai reached its highest level in three months, rising to 56.1 in September, up from 55.0 in August.
According to S&P, the index has averaged 55.5 over the first three quarters of the year, paralleling the first nine months of 2022, and this consistency aligns with a forecast of 4.0 per cent real GDP growth for Dubai in 2023.
There was a surge in new orders in Dubai, similarly to the fastest rate since mid-2019. According to Daniel Richards, senior Middle East and North Africa economist at Emirates NBD, this in turn “also boosted business confidence, which rose to the highest level since March 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic crisis took hold”.
Despite rising input costs, which saw the most substantial increase since July 2022, “the strong orderbook outweighed the impact of rising costs on sentiment”, notes Richards.
Growth areas
In terms of the sectors of growth, both the construction sector and wholesale and retail trade exhibited robust performances. The construction index reached a three-month high, rising to 54.5, and the wholesale and retail trade index reached 56.5, helping to lead the overall index score for Dubai.
The positive outlook in retail resulted in the fastest employment growth in that sector since May 2019.
Looking ahead, the UAE is addressing the central issues of energy transition through the lens of its UAE Energy Strategy 2050 and UAE Net Zero 2050 in the lead up to the UN Cop28 climate summit in November, while other areas of strategic focus for 2050 remain economic diversification, trade partnerships, digitalisation and green initiatives.
MEED’s November 2023 special report on the UAE includes:
> COMMENT: UAE eyes global leadership role
> POLITICS: Abu Dhabi networks on the global stage
> ECONOMY: UAE economy maintains robust growth
> BANKING: UAE banks enjoy the good times
> UPSTREAM: Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc spurs downstream gas expansions
> POWER: UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28
> WATER: UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> PROJECTS: Top 10 UAE clean energy projects
> CONSTRUCTION: UAE construction sector returns to form
> TRANSPORT: UAE aviation returns to growth
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Libya signs three oil deals after licensing round17 June 2026
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The Pendry superblock includes the construction of the Pendry Hotel alongside residential and commercial assets. The package will cover 75,365 square metres and is located in the northwestern district of the DG2 area.
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AHS Properties acquires Shangri-La hotel for $300m17 June 2026
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UAE moves to clear the path for recovery17 June 2026
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EditorMore than three months after the conflict began to disrupt business across the Gulf, the UAE is moving to resolve the technical challenges that the economy faces as it shifts towards recovery.
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Libya signs three oil deals after licensing round17 June 2026
Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) has signed three production-sharing agreements with several international energy companies following the country’s first licensing round in nearly two decades.
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US–Iran deal sets Hormuz road map17 June 2026
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The US-Iran agreement, declared complete on 14 June, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, lifts the US naval blockade and ends a war that has closed the Gulf’s export artery since 28 February. The strait reopens at Friday’s signing on paper, but the recovery will take months.
US President Donald Trump announced the deal on Truth Social, authorising the "toll-free opening" of the strait and the immediate removal of the blockade, with formal signing set for Geneva on 19 June – with vice-president JD Vance to sign for Washington and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf for Tehran in the highest-level US-Iran meeting since 1979.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the text was finalised but said Tehran would not implement it until signing, with the strait staying closed in the interim.
Signing versus substance
The signing on 19 June is merely the starting line that will set in motion a partial reopening to traffic alongside a clearance operation to remove the mines laid by Tehran across key sections of the strait.
The memorandum gives Iranian forces 30 days from signing to clear the strait of mines. At the same time, the Pentagon’s estimates appear to suggest that a full minesweeping could take up to six months, even with three dedicated vessels in the region.
Such gaps – here a 30-day treaty obligation against a six-month operational reality – have become the running feature of the bilateral negotiations, which have been framed by mutual distrust and plagued by an absence of granular detail.
The deal is welcome for the region despite its uncertainty. Behind the mines sits a tanker backlog built over more than 100 days, and Gulf producers that throttled back production and need time and assurances to restore flow.
Before the war, roughly 100 ships transited daily; Kpler now projects around 40 a day could sail within the first month, but with an estimated 300 loaded vessels stranded on either side of the strait, and 250 more sitting empty and idle in the Gulf, it is a pressure release valve, not an immediate restoration of flow.
A total restoration of oil and trade flows is unlikely to come into view before the year’s end.
Insurance represents the second brake, with war-risk premiums standing at 1-4% of vessel value per transit, or about $8m for a $200m tanker – against less than 0.1% before the war.
Shipping associations are no less cautious, with the Baltic and International Maritime Council calling for verified mine-free routes before volume traffic resumes.
Insurance underwriters are likewise unlikely to relent on prices until clearance is confirmed.
Conditional relief
Markets have already traded the sentiment, however. Brent settled at $87.33 on 13 June – an eight-week low – and have fallen further as the deal has firmed. As of early morning trading on 16 June, the first full day of trading after the Islamic New Year, Brent was down at $78.
Yet the relief remains highly conditional: a 60-day nuclear negotiation now follows the signing, and a breakdown in either this, passage through the strait or peace in Lebanon could return the strait to crisis.
The US-touted toll-free terminology is also narrower than billed, with the Iranians instead affirming a 60-day grace period for fees but not eliminating the possibility of “fees” for navigation, environmental and insurance services after that point.
The distinction is legal, not rhetorical, with international maritime law barring tolls on passage through natural straits but permitting the imposition of service fees on vessels passing through territorial waters.
It is through this terminology that Iran is now consistently framing its plans to charge fees from passing vessels through the office of its Persian Gulf Strait Authority – established 5 May and since sanctioned by the US Treasury.
For the Gulf, a 60-day waiver that resolves into an Iranian (and possibly joint Omani) fee regime is a pause in Iran’s tollgate economy, not its end – and would represent a strategic concession for the US, the Gulf and the globe.
Levant entanglement
Lebanon is another conditional space that the deal cannot fully escape, with a flare-up on that front being the final potential trigger that could collapse the 60-day agreement.
Iran has explicitly tied a ceasefire in Lebanon to the resolution of transit in the strait, but Israel does not agree with this, and the linkage may have inadvertently handed Tel Aviv the exact tool it needs to disrupt the US–Iran ceasefire – through the simple of continuing a conflict that it already wants to continue.
Within a day of the deal, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said the IDF would stay in southern Lebanon “without any time limit”, with US officials corroborating that Israeli withdrawal was never a condition of a deal.
On the ground, the ceasefire is already looking frail, with post-deal fire straying in both directions and already endangering the regional calm and Hormuz reopening the Gulf is already pricing.
For Gulf producers and shippers, the distinction and in some cases friction between what the deal declares and what it actually delivers remains a cause for uncertainty.
A declaration is easy, but the delivery requires nuclear negotiation, mine-clearance verification, insurance repricing and a 60-day political test before barrels can again move at volume.
Trump, who has been frustrated for months with the slow progress on Iran from a US perspective, is also more than likely to be distracted by other concerns on a timeline shorter than 60 days – risking the political will to peace coming up short.
In the Gulf, whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE send cabinet-level representatives to Geneva on Friday will signal whether the region’s political leaders are willing to wield the political capital necessary to keep the US on track and pursue the ceasefire to fruition.
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