meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy maintains robust growth

25 October 2023

 

UAE economic growth is largely on track as projected in 2023, with the growth estimates and forecasts remaining much as they were earlier in the year.

The latest estimates from the Washington-based IMF indicate a 3.4 per cent real GDP growth rate for the year, down only 0.1 per cent from the 3.5 per cent projected in April 2023, and still comfortably ahead of the global growth forecast of 3 per cent. The economy is then projected to pick up tempo in 2024 to a growth rate of 4 per cent.

The growth of the UAE’s non-oil economy has been higher than its oil growth over the course of 2023, with the IMF expecting the non-oil growth rate for the year to exceed 4 per cent, benefitting from strong domestic activity. It also projects a repeat of this performance in 2024.

The repeated extensions of the Opec+ production cuts have affected the country’s oil sector growth. However, the UAE’s oil output is set to accelerate next year with the UAE’s 2024 Opec+ production quota increase.

Consumer price inflation in the country is expected to have eased to an annual average of 3.1 per cent by the end of the year, compared to 4.8 per cent in 2022. This is then forecast to ease further to about 2.3 per cent in 2024, or roughly baseline levels.

Ali al-Eyd, the leader of an IMF team that visited the UAE in September, noted that “fiscal and external surpluses remain high on the back of high oil prices. The fiscal balance is expected to be around 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, driven by oil revenue and strong economic activity”.

Speaking to the broader fiscal and structural reforms under way in the UAE, Al-Eyd added: “The phased introduction of a corporate income tax that began in June 2023 will support higher non-oil revenue over the medium term.

“Public debt is projected to continue to decline, falling firmly below 30 per cent of GDP in 2023, including with the benefit of the Dubai emirate reducing its public debt by AED29bn ($7.9bn) in line with its Public Debt Sustainability Strategy. The current account surplus is expected to be notably above the medium-term level in 2023 and 2024.”

Surge in activity

In the latest assessments of business activity in the country, measured through the S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey, the UAE has shown an uptick in September, with the index rising to 56.7, where a value over 50 denotes growth. 

This is up from 55 the previous month and is the most significant leap for the index since June, indicating a positive turn for the country’s non-oil private sector.

The index performance was driven by a rise in new orders, the sub-index for which reached 64.7 in September in a significant jump from 57.6 in the preceding month. This reflects a level of new order growth not witnessed since June 2019, and the evidence of rising demand came from across both domestic and external markets. 

According to S&P, “the rate of new order growth was sharp and faster than the trend observed since the survey began in August 2009”. 

The output sub-index also climbed to 62.8 in September, up from 61.9 the previous month, reflecting the influx of new orders, while there was also a knock-on boost to hiring, with non-oil firms reporting an increase in employment.

Below the country level, the PMI index for Dubai reached its highest level in three months, rising to 56.1 in September, up from 55.0 in August. 

According to S&P, the index has averaged 55.5 over the first three quarters of the year, paralleling the first nine months of 2022, and this consistency aligns with a forecast of 4.0 per cent real GDP growth for Dubai in 2023.

There was a surge in new orders in Dubai, similarly to the fastest rate since mid-2019. According to Daniel Richards, senior Middle East and North Africa economist at Emirates NBD, this in turn “also boosted business confidence, which rose to the highest level since March 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic crisis took hold”. 

Despite rising input costs, which saw the most substantial increase since July 2022, “the strong orderbook outweighed the impact of rising costs on sentiment”, notes Richards.

Growth areas

In terms of the sectors of growth, both the construction sector and wholesale and retail trade exhibited robust performances. The construction index reached a three-month high, rising to 54.5, and the wholesale and retail trade index reached 56.5, helping to lead the overall index score for Dubai. 

The positive outlook in retail resulted in the fastest employment growth in that sector since May 2019.

Looking ahead, the UAE is addressing the central issues of energy transition through the lens of its UAE Energy Strategy 2050 and UAE Net Zero 2050 in the lead up to the UN Cop28 climate summit in November, while other areas of strategic focus for 2050 remain economic diversification, trade partnerships, digitalisation and green initiatives.

MEED’s November 2023 special report on the UAE includes: 

> COMMENT: UAE eyes global leadership role
> POLITICS: Abu Dhabi networks on the global stage
> ECONOMY: UAE economy maintains robust growth
> BANKING: UAE banks enjoy the good times
> UPSTREAM: Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc spurs downstream gas expansions
> POWER: UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28
> WATER: UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> PROJECTS: Top 10 UAE clean energy projects
> CONSTRUCTION: UAE construction sector returns to form
> TRANSPORT: UAE aviation returns to growth

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11231670/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Dubai seeks consultants to develop drainage strategy

    18 March 2026

    Dubai Municipality has issued a request for qualifications (RFQ) for a study to develop a sustainable urban drainage systems (Suds) strategy across the emirate.

    The bid submission deadline is 9 April.

    The tender, issued through the Sewerage and Recycled Water Projects Department, covers the development of a strategy and conceptual implementation plan for Suds in Dubai.

    It follows a separate RFQ issued by the municipality in March for consultancy services to study the emirate’s sewage treatment strategy.

    The Suds project, designated TF-23-D1, aims to support the emirate’s flood protection and drainage infrastructure by promoting a more sustainable approach to stormwater management.

    The scope of work includes a review of international best practices in Suds and their applicability to Dubai. It also involves undertaking a Suds opportunity study and carrying out catchment-scale modelling and financial evaluation for a pilot study area.

    Consultants will be required to develop Suds design guidelines, specifications and standard drawings. The project also includes establishing a strategy, policy, legal and regulatory framework to support a Suds implementation roadmap.

    Dubai Municipality said the initiative represents “a significant step towards a more resilient, sustainable and forward-looking stormwater management approach for Dubai.”

    The study forms part of a broader review of Dubai’s water and wastewater infrastructure. Earlier this month, the municipality issued a separate consultancy tender (P115-D1) to assess the emirate’s sewage treatment and recycled water distribution strategy. 

    The study will focus on infrastructure requirements to support future population growth. 

    This includes identifying locations for potential future facilities such as treatment plants and pumping stations.

    The bid submission deadline is 23 March.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16027434/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Oman awards power purchase agreements

    18 March 2026

    Oman’s Nama Power & Water Procurement Company (PWP) has issued letters of award (LoA) for new power purchase agreements (PPAs) to three independent power producers (IPPs), according to regulatory filings.

    The new PPAs will extend the operating life of existing gas-fired power plants beyond the expiry of their current contracts.

    The projects have a combined capacity of about 3,500MW.

    The agreements have been awarded to Phoenix Power Company, Al-Batinah Power Company and Al-Suwadi Power Company.

    Phoenix Power Company operates the 2,000MW Sur IPP.  It is owned by a consortium of international and regional investors, including Japan’s Marubeni Corporation and Chubu Electric Power, Qatar’s Nebras Power, Qatar Electricity & Water Company and Multitech of Oman’s Bahwan Engineering Company.

    Al-Batinah Power Company and Al-Suwadi Power Company operate the 750MW Sohar 2 IPP and the 750MW Barka 3 IPP, respectively.

    According to regional projects tracker MEED Projects, Nama PWP signed the original PPA for the Barka 3 project in 2010 with a consortium led by Gaz de France (GDF) Suez under a special purpose vehicle (SPC) called Al-Suwadi Power Company.

    The shareholders comprised GDF Suez (46%), Bahwan Engineering Company (22%), Shikoku Electric Power Corporation (11%), Sojitz Corporation (11%)  and the Public Authority for Social Insurance (10%).

    In 2015, GDF Suez was rebranded as Engie following a strategic shift towards low-carbon energy and utilities.

    All three companies said the new PPAs will run for 15 years under agreed commercial terms. Acceptance of the LOAs has been requested by 18 March 2026.

    The new agreements for Sohar 2 and Barka 3 will take effect on 1 April 2028 and run until 31 March 2043. The agreement for the Sur IPP will commence on 1 April 2029 and run until 31 March 2044.

    The awards form part of Nama PWP’s 2028-29 procurement programme. The programme aims to secure firm generation capacity from existing assets whose current PPAs are due to expire during that period.

    In Oman, IPP projects are developed under a build-own-operate model. This allows plant operators to continue running assets beyond the initial PPA term, either through contract extensions or by selling power into a future electricity market.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16027001/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • DP World awards Jafza warehouse construction deal

    18 March 2026

    Dubai-based ports operator DP World has awarded a contract to build a multi-tenant warehouse development at Jebel Ali Freezone in Dubai, UAE.

    The contract was awarded to local firm Group Amana.

    The development spans 141,916 square metres (sq m) and comprises 187 units across seven blocks.

    These comprise warehouses, light industrial units, a retail shop, a mosque and other associated infrastructure.

    The new contract builds on their existing partnership to deliver the logistics park at Jeddah Islamic Port in Saudi Arabia.

    In February last year, MEED exclusively reported that Dubai’s DP World and the Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) had awarded a SR347m ($92m) design-and-build contract to Group Amana for the project.

    The scope of the contract covers construction work on the buildings under package two of the project’s first phase.

    Earlier this week, MEED reported that DP World has kept its 2026 capital expenditure budget at nearly $3bn, focusing on two domestic assets and four overseas projects.

    The company said in a statement that the priority developments include Jebel Ali and Drydocks World in Dubai.

    Earlier this month, the group announced record financial results for 2025, with revenue up 22% to $24.4bn and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) up 18% to $6.4bn, delivering a 26.3% margin.

    DP World said this performance was driven by strong momentum across its ports and terminals and logistics business.

    The group’s gross throughput rose 5.8% to 93.4 million 20-foot equivalent units.

    Profit for the year increased 32.2% to $1.96bn, and operating cash flow grew 14% to $6.3bn.

    Return on capital employed increased to 9.9% in 2025, up from 8.9% in 2024, reflecting stronger earnings despite ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainty.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16026660/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Egyptian firm starts building Sal’s Riyadh logistics centre

    18 March 2026

    Egyptian contractor Rowad Modern Engineering, a subsidiary of the Elsewedy Electric Group, has begun construction on the expansion of Saudi Logistics Services Company (Sal) facilities at King Khalid International airport in Riyadh.

    The scope of work includes the rehabilitation and upgrade of existing infrastructure, as well as the construction of new supporting facilities and services.

    Sal started the tendering process for its SR4.2bn ($1bn) logistics zone in the north of Riyadh in September last year, as MEED reported.

    UAE-based Global Engineering Consultants is the project consultant.

    The logistics hub aims to meet the demand for customised warehouses located near King Khalid International airport and the Riyadh Metro.

    The project is in line with Vision 2030 and the National Transport & Logistics Strategy, which aims to support the kingdom’s logistics sector and enhance Saudi Arabia’s position as a global logistics hub.

    Sal and Sela signed an agreement to develop the project in March last year.

    This was followed by another lease agreement for the project, which will span about 1.57 million square metres. 

    According to an official statement: “The lease will extend for 30 years, which is further extendable to an additional 15 years upon agreement of both parties.”

    GlobalData expects the kingdom’s construction industry to record an annual average growth rate of 5.2% in 2025-28, supported by investments in transport, electricity, housing and tourism infrastructure projects, as well as the $850bn-plus gigaprojects programme.

    Growth will also be supported by government investments in rail, dams, industrial and road infrastructure projects. 

    The industrial sector is estimated to grow by 3.3% in 2025-28, supported by investments in the development of manufacturing, logistics, chemicals and pharmaceuticals plants.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16026154/main.gif
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Jabal Omar plans next phase of its Mecca development

    18 March 2026

    Saudi Arabian developer Jabal Omar Development Company is carrying out planning for phase seven of its Jabal Omar master development in Mecca, according to a fourth-quarter 2025 financial presentation.

    The company said phase seven will be a mixed-use scheme comprising hotels, retail and residential components, but did not disclose a breakdown of the project elements.

    Jabal Omar plans to use a development partnership model for the phase to minimise capital expenditure.

    Separately, the developer said it is targeting the delivery of 1,346 hotel keys and more than 20,000 square metres of gross leasing area in phase four by 2027.

    Rotana Jabal Omar Makkah, comprising 655 keys, is due to be fully operational in the first quarter of 2026, after 450 keys began operating in the final week of December 2025.

    The 1,141-key Sofitel is scheduled to become operational in the fourth quarter of 2026, while the 20,000 square metres of gross leasable area is expected to be ready in 2027.

    Jabal Omar estimates its 2026 capital expenditure at SR1.1bn ($293m), with spending expected to fall once the phase four hotels are completed.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/16026145/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal