meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy maintains robust growth

25 October 2023

 

UAE economic growth is largely on track as projected in 2023, with the growth estimates and forecasts remaining much as they were earlier in the year.

The latest estimates from the Washington-based IMF indicate a 3.4 per cent real GDP growth rate for the year, down only 0.1 per cent from the 3.5 per cent projected in April 2023, and still comfortably ahead of the global growth forecast of 3 per cent. The economy is then projected to pick up tempo in 2024 to a growth rate of 4 per cent.

The growth of the UAE’s non-oil economy has been higher than its oil growth over the course of 2023, with the IMF expecting the non-oil growth rate for the year to exceed 4 per cent, benefitting from strong domestic activity. It also projects a repeat of this performance in 2024.

The repeated extensions of the Opec+ production cuts have affected the country’s oil sector growth. However, the UAE’s oil output is set to accelerate next year with the UAE’s 2024 Opec+ production quota increase.

Consumer price inflation in the country is expected to have eased to an annual average of 3.1 per cent by the end of the year, compared to 4.8 per cent in 2022. This is then forecast to ease further to about 2.3 per cent in 2024, or roughly baseline levels.

Ali al-Eyd, the leader of an IMF team that visited the UAE in September, noted that “fiscal and external surpluses remain high on the back of high oil prices. The fiscal balance is expected to be around 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, driven by oil revenue and strong economic activity”.

Speaking to the broader fiscal and structural reforms under way in the UAE, Al-Eyd added: “The phased introduction of a corporate income tax that began in June 2023 will support higher non-oil revenue over the medium term.

“Public debt is projected to continue to decline, falling firmly below 30 per cent of GDP in 2023, including with the benefit of the Dubai emirate reducing its public debt by AED29bn ($7.9bn) in line with its Public Debt Sustainability Strategy. The current account surplus is expected to be notably above the medium-term level in 2023 and 2024.”

Surge in activity

In the latest assessments of business activity in the country, measured through the S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey, the UAE has shown an uptick in September, with the index rising to 56.7, where a value over 50 denotes growth. 

This is up from 55 the previous month and is the most significant leap for the index since June, indicating a positive turn for the country’s non-oil private sector.

The index performance was driven by a rise in new orders, the sub-index for which reached 64.7 in September in a significant jump from 57.6 in the preceding month. This reflects a level of new order growth not witnessed since June 2019, and the evidence of rising demand came from across both domestic and external markets. 

According to S&P, “the rate of new order growth was sharp and faster than the trend observed since the survey began in August 2009”. 

The output sub-index also climbed to 62.8 in September, up from 61.9 the previous month, reflecting the influx of new orders, while there was also a knock-on boost to hiring, with non-oil firms reporting an increase in employment.

Below the country level, the PMI index for Dubai reached its highest level in three months, rising to 56.1 in September, up from 55.0 in August. 

According to S&P, the index has averaged 55.5 over the first three quarters of the year, paralleling the first nine months of 2022, and this consistency aligns with a forecast of 4.0 per cent real GDP growth for Dubai in 2023.

There was a surge in new orders in Dubai, similarly to the fastest rate since mid-2019. According to Daniel Richards, senior Middle East and North Africa economist at Emirates NBD, this in turn “also boosted business confidence, which rose to the highest level since March 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic crisis took hold”. 

Despite rising input costs, which saw the most substantial increase since July 2022, “the strong orderbook outweighed the impact of rising costs on sentiment”, notes Richards.

Growth areas

In terms of the sectors of growth, both the construction sector and wholesale and retail trade exhibited robust performances. The construction index reached a three-month high, rising to 54.5, and the wholesale and retail trade index reached 56.5, helping to lead the overall index score for Dubai. 

The positive outlook in retail resulted in the fastest employment growth in that sector since May 2019.

Looking ahead, the UAE is addressing the central issues of energy transition through the lens of its UAE Energy Strategy 2050 and UAE Net Zero 2050 in the lead up to the UN Cop28 climate summit in November, while other areas of strategic focus for 2050 remain economic diversification, trade partnerships, digitalisation and green initiatives.

MEED’s November 2023 special report on the UAE includes: 

> COMMENT: UAE eyes global leadership role
> POLITICS: Abu Dhabi networks on the global stage
> ECONOMY: UAE economy maintains robust growth
> BANKING: UAE banks enjoy the good times
> UPSTREAM: Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc spurs downstream gas expansions
> POWER: UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28
> WATER: UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> PROJECTS: Top 10 UAE clean energy projects
> CONSTRUCTION: UAE construction sector returns to form
> TRANSPORT: UAE aviation returns to growth

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11231670/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Libya plans to distribute oil budget in July

    23 June 2026

     

    Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) has communicated to contractors in the country that it is expecting funds from the country’s budget to be distributed to state-owned oil companies in July, according to industry sources.

    Earlier this year, the country’s rival legislative bodies approved a unified state budget for the first time in more than 13 years.

    The Central Bank of Libya confirmed on 11 April that both chambers had endorsed the budget, calling it a key step towards restoring financial stability after prolonged division.

    The total budget was valued at LD190bn ($29.95bn), and LD12bn ($1.9bn) was allocated to the country’s NOC.

    An additional LD40bn ($6.3bn) was allocated for “development projects”.

    At the time, Libya stated that a joint committee had been formed to help prioritise development projects, and the projects had been listed in the budget.

    Over the past decade, the country has had two rival governments; the last time the country operated under a single national budget was in 2013.

    The country’s two legislatures are the eastern-based House of Representatives and the Tripoli-based High Council of State.

    As a result of the US and Israel’s war with Israel, there has been significant disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally transports around 20% of the world’s oil and gas exports.

    This has driven global energy prices higher, with Brent hitting more than $114 a barrel in May this year.

    The price of Brent remains 10% higher than prior to the US and Israel attacking Iran on 28 February.

    Libya is well-positioned to capitalise on the ongoing uncertainty around exports via the Strait of Hormuz, as energy-importing nations seek reliable oil and gas supplies.

    The North African country is located near Europe, with several large oil and gas export ports and a pipeline that transports gas to Italy.

    Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa, but has struggled to implement projects to develop them over recent years due to political infighting and security problems.

    READ THE JUNE 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

    GCC looks beyond the Strait; Iraq’s reform window narrows as fiscal assumptions shatter; MEED Top 100 companies.

    Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the June 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes:
    To see previous issues of MEED Business Review, please click here
    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17389246/main2010.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Egypt approves plans for 869MW wind power plant

    22 June 2026

    Egypt’s Cabinet has approved plans for French renewable energy developer Voltalia to develop an 869MW wind power project.

    The scheme will be built on land allocated by the New & Renewable Energy Authority (NREA), according to a statement posted by the Cabinet following its most recent weekly meeting.

    Voltalia will make an initial investment of $53m and has committed to achieving commercial operations by December 2028.

    Voltalia already operates the 32MW Ra solar plant at the Benban solar complex in Aswan and is expanding its renewable energy portfolio in Egypt.

    Previously, in 2024, it signed a framework agreement with Egypt’s Taqa Arabia to develop a green hydrogen and renewable power cluster near the Ain Sokhna port in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

    The green hydrogen development is planned in two phases, each centred on a 500MW electrolyser powered by more than 1.3GW of renewable generation capacity. The project, still in its early stages, is expected to produce up to 350,000 tonnes of green ammonia a year.

    Voltalia’s partnership with Taqa Arabia also includes plans for a 3.2GW hybrid wind and solar project to repower the existing 545MW Zafarana wind farm in Suez Governorate. The Cabinet statement did not indicate whether the newly approved 869MW wind project forms part of that proposal.

    Meanwhile, the developer won another contract, earlier this year, to develop a 132MW solar power project in Tunisia’s Gabes region.

    The project, known as Wadi, marked Voltalia’s third major solar award in the country after the Sagdoud and Menzel Habib projects awarded in 2024.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17376730/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Local firm signs Jeddah drainage contracts

    22 June 2026

    Local contractor Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (AWPT) has announced it has signed two contracts with Jeddah Municipality to operate and maintain stormwater and surface water drainage networks across the city.

    The contracts have a combined value of SR202.06m ($53.9m), and each will run for five years.

    The first contract, valued at SR108.46m ($28.9m), covers the operation and cleaning of stormwater and surface water networks in the South and Al-Malisa sub-municipalities.

    The second contract, worth SR93.59m ($25m), covers similar services for the Airport Sub-Municipality.

    In March, MEED reported that the firm had won a long-term contract to carry out work in the airport’s sub-municipality area. The agreement was signed on 16 June.

    Elsewhere, construction has yet to begin on phases one and two of the King Abdullah Road-Falasteen Road tunnel project, each valued at about $175m.

    According to sources, Jeddah Municipality selected Saudi contractor Thrustboring Construction Company to build the large-diameter stormwater drainage tunnels in 2025. However, an official agreement has yet to be signed.

    The municipality was also previously planning to rehabilitate the existing Al-Zahra pumping station. Prequalification for the project began in 2020; however, it is understood that the main contact tender was cancelled last year.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17376097/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Saudi firm signs Uzbekistan water treatment PPP

    22 June 2026

    Saudi-listed Miahona has signed a public-private partnership agreement to enhance, operate and maintain Uzbekistan’s Zomin water treatment plant in the country’s Jizzakh region.

    The agreement was signed on 18 June with Uzsuvtaminot, the country’s state-owned water utility, the developer said in a filing with the Saudi stock exchange.

    Miahona will carry out enhancement works and 25 years of operation and maintenance services for the existing plant, which has a design treatment capacity of 50,000 cubic metres a day

    The contract marks the company’s entry into Uzbekistan’s water sector. According to the disclosure, it will enter into force once a project-related governmental decree is issued in accordance with Uzbekistan’s applicable legislation.

    The contract is estimated at $105m (SR395m), with a final value to be confirmed following the issuance of the governmental decree.

    MEED reported earlier this month that Uzbekistan had stepped up its engagement with Middle Eastern investors, including holding talks with Saudi Arabia’s Acwa and Vision Invest on renewable energy, water management, waste recycling, digital infrastructure and urban utility projects.

    The government also recently held discussions with a UAE delegation led by Suhail Mohamed Al-Mazrouei, minister of energy and infrastructure and chairman of Etihad Water & Electricity’s Board of Directors.

    At the Tashkent International Investment Forum, it signed a €197m financing package with Germany’s KfW Development Bank to support drinking water supply and wastewater projects in the Surkhandarya and Fergana regions.

    The projects will cover Termez and several district centres in Surkhandarya region, as well as Kokand and Margilan in Fergana region.

    This includes “the construction and reconstruction of hundreds of kilometres of drinking water and wastewater networks, pumping stations and modern wastewater treatment facilities”, deputy prime minister Jamshid Khodjaev said.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17375811/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Qiddiya seeks contractors for indoor arena project

    22 June 2026

     

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Saudi Arabian gigaproject developer Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) has invited contractors to prequalify for a contract to build an indoor sports arena within its Qiddiya entertainment city project.

    The invitation was issued on 21 May, with a submission deadline of 28 June.

    The multipurpose arena is designed to International Olympic Committee standards.

    It will be located in District 18, in the Uptown South area of Qiddiya.

    Once completed, the indoor arena will be capable of hosting a wide range of sports, cultural and entertainment events.

    The arena will feature numerous sports courts for basketball, handball, futsal, volleyball, tennis, boxing and gymnastics.

    It will have a seating capacity of 18,000 spectators.

    The project is scheduled for completion by 2030.

    QIC’s other major projects include an e-sports arena, the National Tennis Centre, Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Stadium, a motorsports track, a racecourse, the Dragon Ball and Six Flags theme parks, and Aquarabia.

    QIC opened the Six Flags theme park to the public in December last year.

    The park covers 320,000 square metres and features 28 rides and attractions, including 10 thrill rides and 18 aimed at families and young children.

    The Qiddiya project is a key part of Riyadh’s strategy to boost leisure tourism in the kingdom.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/17375504/main.jpg
    Yasir Iqbal