meed-logo

line1 line2 line3
SIGN IN / REGISTER

UAE economy maintains robust growth

25 October 2023

 

UAE economic growth is largely on track as projected in 2023, with the growth estimates and forecasts remaining much as they were earlier in the year.

The latest estimates from the Washington-based IMF indicate a 3.4 per cent real GDP growth rate for the year, down only 0.1 per cent from the 3.5 per cent projected in April 2023, and still comfortably ahead of the global growth forecast of 3 per cent. The economy is then projected to pick up tempo in 2024 to a growth rate of 4 per cent.

The growth of the UAE’s non-oil economy has been higher than its oil growth over the course of 2023, with the IMF expecting the non-oil growth rate for the year to exceed 4 per cent, benefitting from strong domestic activity. It also projects a repeat of this performance in 2024.

The repeated extensions of the Opec+ production cuts have affected the country’s oil sector growth. However, the UAE’s oil output is set to accelerate next year with the UAE’s 2024 Opec+ production quota increase.

Consumer price inflation in the country is expected to have eased to an annual average of 3.1 per cent by the end of the year, compared to 4.8 per cent in 2022. This is then forecast to ease further to about 2.3 per cent in 2024, or roughly baseline levels.

Ali al-Eyd, the leader of an IMF team that visited the UAE in September, noted that “fiscal and external surpluses remain high on the back of high oil prices. The fiscal balance is expected to be around 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, driven by oil revenue and strong economic activity”.

Speaking to the broader fiscal and structural reforms under way in the UAE, Al-Eyd added: “The phased introduction of a corporate income tax that began in June 2023 will support higher non-oil revenue over the medium term.

“Public debt is projected to continue to decline, falling firmly below 30 per cent of GDP in 2023, including with the benefit of the Dubai emirate reducing its public debt by AED29bn ($7.9bn) in line with its Public Debt Sustainability Strategy. The current account surplus is expected to be notably above the medium-term level in 2023 and 2024.”

Surge in activity

In the latest assessments of business activity in the country, measured through the S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey, the UAE has shown an uptick in September, with the index rising to 56.7, where a value over 50 denotes growth. 

This is up from 55 the previous month and is the most significant leap for the index since June, indicating a positive turn for the country’s non-oil private sector.

The index performance was driven by a rise in new orders, the sub-index for which reached 64.7 in September in a significant jump from 57.6 in the preceding month. This reflects a level of new order growth not witnessed since June 2019, and the evidence of rising demand came from across both domestic and external markets. 

According to S&P, “the rate of new order growth was sharp and faster than the trend observed since the survey began in August 2009”. 

The output sub-index also climbed to 62.8 in September, up from 61.9 the previous month, reflecting the influx of new orders, while there was also a knock-on boost to hiring, with non-oil firms reporting an increase in employment.

Below the country level, the PMI index for Dubai reached its highest level in three months, rising to 56.1 in September, up from 55.0 in August. 

According to S&P, the index has averaged 55.5 over the first three quarters of the year, paralleling the first nine months of 2022, and this consistency aligns with a forecast of 4.0 per cent real GDP growth for Dubai in 2023.

There was a surge in new orders in Dubai, similarly to the fastest rate since mid-2019. According to Daniel Richards, senior Middle East and North Africa economist at Emirates NBD, this in turn “also boosted business confidence, which rose to the highest level since March 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic crisis took hold”. 

Despite rising input costs, which saw the most substantial increase since July 2022, “the strong orderbook outweighed the impact of rising costs on sentiment”, notes Richards.

Growth areas

In terms of the sectors of growth, both the construction sector and wholesale and retail trade exhibited robust performances. The construction index reached a three-month high, rising to 54.5, and the wholesale and retail trade index reached 56.5, helping to lead the overall index score for Dubai. 

The positive outlook in retail resulted in the fastest employment growth in that sector since May 2019.

Looking ahead, the UAE is addressing the central issues of energy transition through the lens of its UAE Energy Strategy 2050 and UAE Net Zero 2050 in the lead up to the UN Cop28 climate summit in November, while other areas of strategic focus for 2050 remain economic diversification, trade partnerships, digitalisation and green initiatives.

MEED’s November 2023 special report on the UAE includes: 

> COMMENT: UAE eyes global leadership role
> POLITICS: Abu Dhabi networks on the global stage
> ECONOMY: UAE economy maintains robust growth
> BANKING: UAE banks enjoy the good times
> UPSTREAM: Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc spurs downstream gas expansions
> POWER: UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28
> WATER: UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> PROJECTS: Top 10 UAE clean energy projects
> CONSTRUCTION: UAE construction sector returns to form
> TRANSPORT: UAE aviation returns to growth

 

https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/11231670/main.gif
John Bambridge

Register for MEED's guest program now to access this article.

Click here to register
Exclusive from Meed
Related Articles
  • Eni completes $1bn Libya gas project

    20 October 2026

    Register for MEED’s 14-day trial access 

    Libya’s Mellitah Oil & Gas Company, a joint venture of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) and Italian oil and gas company Eni, has achieved mechanical completion on its Bouri gas utilisation project (GUP).

    In a statement, Eni said that start-up procedures are currently under way, enabling the recovery of associated gas produced from the Bouri field, which is located in Libya’s western offshore area.

    The main contract for the project, worth $1bn, was awarded to Italy’s Saipem in August 2023.

    The project involved the construction and installation of the new Bouri gas recovery module and related tie-in infrastructure that enables the recovery and treatment of gas that was previously flared.

    In its statement, Eni said that the project “represents one of the most significant emissions reduction initiatives in Libya’s energy sector”.

    It also said that it would contribute to improving the environmental performance of the country’s production system by reducing greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 1.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.

    The recovered gas will be supplied to the domestic market, adding about 700 million cubic metres a year and helping meet demand from the power generation sector.

    The project will also support additional gas volumes available for export to Europe through the GreenStream pipeline.

    Eni said: “The start-up of the Bouri GUP confirms the joint commitment of Eni and NOC to the development of Libya’s energy sector through initiatives that combine production growth, operational efficiency and environmental stewardship.

    “The project is part of a broader strategy aimed at enhancing the value of the country’s gas resources while reducing the emissions intensity of upstream activities.”

    Other key projects currently under way in Libya include the A&E Structures Project, which is focused on bringing new offshore gas resources onstream for both the domestic market and exports, as well as initiatives aimed at upgrading and optimising gas production and transportation infrastructures.

    Eni has been present in Libya since 1959, and the company’s equity production in the country in 2025 amounted to approximately 162,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day.

    The Bouri offshore field is part of Libya’s Block NC-41, located 120 kilometres north of the Libyan coast in the Mediterranean Sea.

    It was first discovered in 1976 at a depth of 8,700 feet. It is estimated to contain 4.5 billion barrels in proven recoverable crude oil reserves and 3.5 trillion cubic feet of associated natural gas, with an annual production potential of 6 billion cubic metres.

    The first development phase, costing nearly $2bn, was completed in 1990.

    This was immediately followed by a second development phase, which entailed drilling 55 new wells and constructing three additional platforms. Production began from the oil platforms DP4 and DP3 in August 1998.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20770288/main3529.jpg
    Wil Crisp
  • Diriyah Company tenders East Wadi bridge

    20 October 2026

     

    Saudi Arabia’s Diriyah Company has invited contractors to bid on the construction of the DG II East Wadi Bridge, a key crossing within Riyadh’s Diriyah master development.  

    The bridge will provide an arterial road connection linking the Diriyah Gate Phase 2 (DG II) Infrastructure Package 1 and Package 2 zones.  

    The project scope involves the construction of a 100-metre clear-span, 44-metre-wide, single-span post-tensioned concrete bridge structure with integrated abutments and four architectural towers.  

    The contract also encompasses approach slabs, access roads, pavements, associated earthworks, architectural finishes and cladding, mechanical, electrical and plumbing installations, utility interfaces, bridge parapets, vehicle restraint systems, waterproofing, testing and commissioning, and associated temporary works.  

    The client will supply the detailed engineering design, and the selected contractor will develop the construction methodology.

    Diriyah Company issued the prequalification tender on 14 September, with submissions due by 10 December.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20769223/main.png
    Yasir Iqbal
  • Kuwait selects firms for power works at housing projects

    20 October 2026

     

    Kuwait’s Public Authority for Housing Welfare (PAHW) has appointed contractors for works covering the supply and installation of 132kV underground cables at South Sabah Al-Ahmad Residential City.

    The contracts relate to engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) packages for works for 28 main 132/11kV substations across four phases.

    According to sources, Egypt’s Elsewedy Cables has won contracts for phases 1 and 3, while China’s TBEA Shandong Luneng Taishan Cable Company has won contracts for phases 2 and 4 of the development.

    In April, MEED reported that PAHW had received at least five bids for each of the first two packages, with Elsewedy and TBEA offering $44m and $40.5m, respectively.

    The first contract (phase 1) covers seven substations in zones N9, N7 and N5. The second contract (phase 2) covers seven substations in zones N10 and N5.

    PAHW issued two further 132kV underground cable tenders for the South Sabah Al-Ahmad residential development at the end of May, as reported by MEED.

    This included a contract (phase 3) covering the supply, extension and maintenance of 132kV underground cables linked to seven substations serving the N5, N6, N8 and N10 districts. Egytech Cables, a subsidiary of Elsewedy, submitted an offer of $39.95m, the lowest of four bids.

    The other contract (phase 4) covers the supply, extension and maintenance of 132kV underground cables feeding eight main transformer substations serving the N1, N6 and N11 districts. 

    MEED reported in July that TBEA had submitted an offer of $44.06m for the contract.

    South Saad Al-Abdullah 

    Separately, PAHW has appointed contractors for power transmission works at the South Saad Al-Abdullah residential development.

    The local firm Sayed Hamid Behbehani & Sons has won a contract to supply, install and maintain 10 main 132/11kV transformer substations for the development’s third phase. 

    Another local firm, Al-Ahleia Switchgear, has won a contract to supply, install and maintain 10 main 132/11kV transformer substations for the project’s fourth phase. 

    As reported in August, the contractors submitted bids of $104.2m and $103.3m, respectively.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20761431/main.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Taqa moves forward with Mirfa-Liwa scheme

    20 October 2026

     

    Taqa Transmission and Taqa Distribution are advancing a major water transmission and distribution scheme serving Mirfa, Madinat Zayed and Liwa in Abu Dhabi, sources told MEED.

    The project, originally estimated to cost $775m, has been in procurement for several years. According to sources, a request for proposals has been issued, with bids due on 5 January 2027.

    The initial submission deadline was 11 November, before it was extended.

    The project was previously tendered in December 2024, with contractors submitting bids for transmission and distribution packages in January 2025.  As of August, the bids were still under evaluation. It is unclear whether the latest tender represents a revised procurement process for the same scheme.

    The project comprises a water transmission system from Mirfa, alongside distribution networks serving farms and settlements in the western region.

    According to details seen by MEED, the latest scope includes a pumping station at Mirfa with a capacity of 128 million imperial gallons a day, about 125 kilometres of transmission pipelines to Muzairah, with branches to Madinat Zayed and Liwa Summit, and storage tanks at the three locations.

    The distribution network is divided into four geographic clusters covering Liwa East, Liwa West, Madinat Zayed and Seih Al-Kheir. The works include associated pipelines, pumping stations and storage facilities.

    The earlier procurement was structured as an engineering, procurement and construction scheme, divided between transmission and distribution works.

    As MEED understands, the latest tender is being pursued under a design, build and operate model, which extends the contractor’s responsibilities to operating the infrastructure after construction.

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20758109/main2934.jpg
    Mark Dowdall
  • Contractors prepare prices for Adnoc Onshore field facilities project

    20 October 2026

     

    Contractors are preparing commercial bids for Adnoc Onshore’s project to build on-plot and off-plot facilities at the Rumaitha and Shanayel fields in Abu Dhabi’s North East Bab oil field cluster.

    The project will enhance and sustain crude output at Rumaitha and Shanayel at 45,000 barrels a day (b/d), supporting Adnoc’s Accelerated Integrated Programme 5 (AiP5) drive to lift capacity to 5 million b/d by 2027.

    Adnoc Onshore issued the main tender for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) works on 19 June. Contractors submitted technical bids by 5 August, sources told MEED.

    The on-plot works include adding a crude processing train, produced water treatment and reinjection systems, surface water pumps, and multi-stage gas compression and dehydration units. Works also include utilities, safety and control systems, modifications to existing Phase 1 units and 220kV power infrastructure.

    The off-plot scope includes installing and tying in new gas-lifted producer and water-injection wells, as well as building and expanding wellhead clusters. Contractors will also lay crude-gathering, water-injection and gas-export pipelines connecting to the Adnoc Gas network and extend 33kV overhead power lines across the fields.

    The tender follows Adnoc Onshore’s shift in strategy for the wider North East Bab development – comprising the Al-Nouf, Rumaitha and Shanayel fields – after scrapping an earlier engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCm) approach. MEED reported in December that the operator had cancelled an off-plot EPCm contract awarded to China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (CPECC) in October 2024. Adnoc later cancelled a separate on-plot EPCm tender that it received bids for in the second quarter of 2025.

    In addition to the North East cluster, Adnoc Onshore continues to make progress on EPC works for another similar project to build off-plot facilities at the South East cluster of oil fields in Abu Dhabi, which is also integral to Adnoc Group’s AiP5 campaign.

    The South East cluster comprises the Asab, Mender, Qusahwira, Sahil and Shah fields and accounts for approximately a third of Adnoc Onshore’s oil production capacity.

    MEED previously reported that Adnoc Onshore awarded CPECC the EPC works for the South East off-plot facilities project, with the contract value estimated at around $1.2bn.

    CPECC is also performing EPC works on the South East on-plot facilities project in a consortium with Greece-headquartered Archirodon. Adnoc Onshore awarded an estimated $1.5bn contract for that project to the consortium in December 2024, with EPC works scheduled for completion in 2027.

    ALSO READ: Adnoc Onshore seeks bids for Bu Hasa field EOR project

    https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/uploads/NewsArticle/20757699/main.jpeg
    Indrajit Sen