UAE economy maintains robust growth
25 October 2023

UAE economic growth is largely on track as projected in 2023, with the growth estimates and forecasts remaining much as they were earlier in the year.
The latest estimates from the Washington-based IMF indicate a 3.4 per cent real GDP growth rate for the year, down only 0.1 per cent from the 3.5 per cent projected in April 2023, and still comfortably ahead of the global growth forecast of 3 per cent. The economy is then projected to pick up tempo in 2024 to a growth rate of 4 per cent.
The growth of the UAE’s non-oil economy has been higher than its oil growth over the course of 2023, with the IMF expecting the non-oil growth rate for the year to exceed 4 per cent, benefitting from strong domestic activity. It also projects a repeat of this performance in 2024.
The repeated extensions of the Opec+ production cuts have affected the country’s oil sector growth. However, the UAE’s oil output is set to accelerate next year with the UAE’s 2024 Opec+ production quota increase.
Consumer price inflation in the country is expected to have eased to an annual average of 3.1 per cent by the end of the year, compared to 4.8 per cent in 2022. This is then forecast to ease further to about 2.3 per cent in 2024, or roughly baseline levels.
Ali al-Eyd, the leader of an IMF team that visited the UAE in September, noted that “fiscal and external surpluses remain high on the back of high oil prices. The fiscal balance is expected to be around 5 per cent of GDP in 2023, driven by oil revenue and strong economic activity”.
Speaking to the broader fiscal and structural reforms under way in the UAE, Al-Eyd added: “The phased introduction of a corporate income tax that began in June 2023 will support higher non-oil revenue over the medium term.
“Public debt is projected to continue to decline, falling firmly below 30 per cent of GDP in 2023, including with the benefit of the Dubai emirate reducing its public debt by AED29bn ($7.9bn) in line with its Public Debt Sustainability Strategy. The current account surplus is expected to be notably above the medium-term level in 2023 and 2024.”
Surge in activity
In the latest assessments of business activity in the country, measured through the S&P Global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey, the UAE has shown an uptick in September, with the index rising to 56.7, where a value over 50 denotes growth.
This is up from 55 the previous month and is the most significant leap for the index since June, indicating a positive turn for the country’s non-oil private sector.
The index performance was driven by a rise in new orders, the sub-index for which reached 64.7 in September in a significant jump from 57.6 in the preceding month. This reflects a level of new order growth not witnessed since June 2019, and the evidence of rising demand came from across both domestic and external markets.
According to S&P, “the rate of new order growth was sharp and faster than the trend observed since the survey began in August 2009”.
The output sub-index also climbed to 62.8 in September, up from 61.9 the previous month, reflecting the influx of new orders, while there was also a knock-on boost to hiring, with non-oil firms reporting an increase in employment.

Below the country level, the PMI index for Dubai reached its highest level in three months, rising to 56.1 in September, up from 55.0 in August.
According to S&P, the index has averaged 55.5 over the first three quarters of the year, paralleling the first nine months of 2022, and this consistency aligns with a forecast of 4.0 per cent real GDP growth for Dubai in 2023.
There was a surge in new orders in Dubai, similarly to the fastest rate since mid-2019. According to Daniel Richards, senior Middle East and North Africa economist at Emirates NBD, this in turn “also boosted business confidence, which rose to the highest level since March 2020, just before the Covid-19 pandemic crisis took hold”.
Despite rising input costs, which saw the most substantial increase since July 2022, “the strong orderbook outweighed the impact of rising costs on sentiment”, notes Richards.
Growth areas
In terms of the sectors of growth, both the construction sector and wholesale and retail trade exhibited robust performances. The construction index reached a three-month high, rising to 54.5, and the wholesale and retail trade index reached 56.5, helping to lead the overall index score for Dubai.
The positive outlook in retail resulted in the fastest employment growth in that sector since May 2019.
Looking ahead, the UAE is addressing the central issues of energy transition through the lens of its UAE Energy Strategy 2050 and UAE Net Zero 2050 in the lead up to the UN Cop28 climate summit in November, while other areas of strategic focus for 2050 remain economic diversification, trade partnerships, digitalisation and green initiatives.
MEED’s November 2023 special report on the UAE includes:
> COMMENT: UAE eyes global leadership role
> POLITICS: Abu Dhabi networks on the global stage
> ECONOMY: UAE economy maintains robust growth
> BANKING: UAE banks enjoy the good times
> UPSTREAM: Hail and Ghasha galvanises UAE upstream market
> DOWNSTREAM: Adnoc spurs downstream gas expansions
> POWER: UAE closes ranks ahead of Cop28
> WATER: UAE ramps up decarbonisation of water sector
> PROJECTS: Top 10 UAE clean energy projects
> CONSTRUCTION: UAE construction sector returns to form
> TRANSPORT: UAE aviation returns to growth
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Zamil Steel wins $82m Qiddiya tennis centre contract21 October 2026
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Building resilience into infrastructure delivery21 October 2026

The regional disruptions earlier this year tested Gulf supply chains, challenging the movement of goods and construction materials and raising questions about the ability of infrastructure programmes to maintain momentum.
For the UAE Ministry of Energy & Infrastructure, the experience reinforced the importance of the systems that support project delivery, from transport networks and customs procedures to domestic manufacturers and international suppliers.
“The disruption reinforced an important principle: infrastructure resilience is ultimately about the ability of the national system to continue operating under pressure,” says Mohammed Al-Mansoori, undersecretary for infrastructure and transport affairs.
Supply resilience
The ministry worked with ports, customs authorities, transport and rail operators, contractors, suppliers and the private sector to maintain the flow of essential goods and construction materials. It monitored critical materials and project schedules, identified alternative sources and adjusted procurement and delivery arrangements.
The response included movement exemptions and facilitation measures for more than 6,600 lorries, while rail freight operations increased from approximately one journey a week to as many as seven journeys a day. Priority and green corridors were activated, customs procedures facilitated and critical shipments prioritised at ports.
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For infrastructure projects, the ministry worked with local manufacturers and suppliers to identify alternative sources of road and construction materials meeting the required technical specifications and quality standards. This helped reduce reliance on disrupted international supply routes and support ongoing projects.
The experience also highlighted the value of existing coordination mechanisms and partnerships.
“It also reinforced a fundamental principle: resilience means ensuring that critical infrastructure delivery does not depend on a single supplier, a single route or a single mode of transport,” Al-Mansoori says.
The ministry is planning to build on this experience by diversifying suppliers, strengthening domestic manufacturing and improving supply-chain monitoring.
Resilience is increasingly being incorporated into procurement planning. For critical materials and services, the ministry aims to identify risks early, broaden the pool of qualified suppliers and ensure viable alternatives are available.
The approach supports the UAE’s wider industrial objectives, including the national in-country value programme, which seeks to direct a greater share of procurement expenditure into the national economy.
“Our objective is not simply to purchase more locally. It is to help create competitive national supply chains,” Al-Mansoori says.
Domestic suppliers must be able to meet the technical requirements, quality standards and volumes demanded by major infrastructure programmes. Localisation is therefore about developing competitive industrial capabilities while shortening supply chains, improving responsiveness and encouraging investment.
“Localisation is not simply a procurement choice; it is an investment in national capability and long-term resilience,” Al-Mansoori says.
The ministry is also working with contractors to manage pressures from fluctuating material, insurance and transport costs. Its approach combines commercial discipline with early engagement to prevent external pressures from affecting project delivery.
“Our approach is based on early engagement, transparency and disciplined commercial management,” Al-Mansoori says. “Long-term infrastructure delivery depends on strong contractors as much as it depends on strong contracts.”
Contractors remain responsible for normal market and contractual risks, but the ministry seeks to assess exceptional pressures objectively, supported by evidence of their impact on costs and schedules. Realistic planning, early procurement and proactive risk management also help maintain momentum.
“The objective is to strike the right balance between protecting the government’s commercial interests and securing best value for money, while maintaining an efficient, sustainable contracting market capable of continuing to deliver strategic infrastructure projects,” Al-Mansoori says.
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Project delivery
The ministry’s focus on measurable outcomes is reflected in the Emirates Road enhancement project, which involves widening approximately 25 kilometres of Emirates Road from three to five lanes in each direction, alongside major improvements to Interchange No. 7.
The works are expected to increase road capacity by up to 65% and reduce journey times by up to 45%.
The project illustrates the ministry’s emphasis on assessing infrastructure by the benefits it delivers, rather than simply the scale of construction.
“Infrastructure success should be measured by the value it creates – not just by the kilometres we build,” Al-Mansoori says.
That principle is increasingly important as the UAE balances new construction with the long-term costs of operating and maintaining its assets. Decisions made during planning and construction can influence maintenance requirements, operating costs and performance for decades.
For Al-Mansoori, resilience, domestic capability and effective delivery are closely connected. Stronger local supply chains can reduce exposure to external shocks, while closer engagement with contractors can help projects withstand cost pressures.
Don’t miss MEED’s MENA Construction Summit 2026, taking place under the patronage of the UAE Ministry of Energy & Infrastructure
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Riyadh tenders Expo 2030 Adaptation and Innovation Pavilion21 October 2026

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Expo 2030 Riyadh has tendered the design-and-build main contract for the Adaptation and Innovation Pavilion in the exhibition’s Technology District.
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Mubadala Bio lands Lilly logistics deal21 October 2026
Mubadala Bio, the life sciences subsidiary of Abu Dhabi state investor Mubadala Investment Company, has signed an agreement with US drugmaker Eli Lilly to localise the packaging and logistics of Lilly’s glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) medicines in Abu Dhabi.
The work will take place at a 125,000-square-metre site in Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad), which includes packaging and warehousing facilities. Mubadala Bio said the facilities would strengthen its pharmaceutical contract manufacturing, packaging and logistics capabilities and its ability to serve international clients from the UAE.
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The Emirates Drug Establishment approved Lilly’s oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo (orforglipron) for chronic weight management in April. The companies said this made the UAE the second country in the world to register the medicine.
In Abu Dhabi, the treatment is available to eligible patients under a weight management programme launched by the Abu Dhabi Department of Health and the Abu Dhabi Public Health Centre in June 2025. The UAE was also an early launch market for Lilly’s injectable treatment Mounjaro (tirzepatide) in August 2022.
Mubadala launched Mubadala Bio in 2025 to expand domestic drug manufacturing and distribution, with a focus on national drug security. It is one of Mubadala’s designated national champions, set up to support strategic sectors. At launch, its combined facilities covered 110,000 square metres, with an annual capacity of more than 2.5 billion tablets and capsules and 120 million intravenous and injectable units.
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Chinese/local joint venture wins Qiddiya stadium facade21 October 2026
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A joint venture of China’s Fangda Group and Saudi Arabia’s IKK Group has secured a SR1.15bn ($306m) contract to deliver curtain wall facade works for the Prince Mohammed Bin Salman Stadium in Qiddiya City, Riyadh.
The contract was awarded by the joint venture of Spain’s FCC Construccion and local contractor Nesma & Partners, which is building the stadium under an estimated SR15bn ($4bn) main contract awarded by Qiddiya Investment Company (QIC) in October 2024.
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The project is being designed by US-based consultant Populous.
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Zamil Steel wins $82m Qiddiya tennis centre contract21 October 2026
Advanced Building Industries Company (Senaat) has announced that its subsidiary, Zamil Structural Steel Company (Zamil Steel), has secured a SR308m ($82m) contract for the National Tennis Centre in Qiddiya City, Riyadh.
The 19-month contract was awarded by the joint venture of France’s Bouygues Batiment International and local contractor Almabani General Contractors Company.
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MEED reported in June that the Bouygues Batiment International-Almabani joint venture had started construction of the National Tennis Centre.
The development will include 30 tennis courts, comprising 28 hard courts and two clay courts. The main Centre Court will seat 15,000 spectators and feature a retractable roof.
The facility is being designed to meet standards set by the Association of Tennis Professionals, the Women’s Tennis Association and the International Tennis Federation.
The development will also include an 8,000-seat multipurpose arena with a retractable roof, known as Court 3. Other facilities include a 5,000-seat Court 1, a 2,000-seat Court 2, six competition courts, six indoor courts and 14 practice courts. Each outdoor match court will provide 450 seats.
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Qiddiya Investment Company officially announced the project on 15 June. The developer has said the centre will be the region’s largest tennis complex and will host international tennis events.
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